Nkhaniyi ikufotokoza madera ogwiritsira ntchito mndandanda wa nthawi, mavuto omwe akuyenera kuthetsedwa, ndi ma algorithms omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito. Kulosera kwanthawi yayitali kumagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati kulosera zamtsogolo, kuchuluka kwa malo olumikizirana, misewu ndi kuchuluka kwa intaneti, kuthetsa vuto lozizira loyambira pamakina olimbikitsa, ndikufufuza zolakwika pamachitidwe a zida ndi ogwiritsa ntchito.
Tiyeni tiwone ntchitozo mwatsatanetsatane.
1) Kufuna kulosera.
Cholinga: kuchepetsa mtengo wa nyumba yosungiramo katundu ndikuwongolera ndandanda yantchito ya ogwira ntchito.
Momwe mungathetsere: kukhala ndi chiwonetsero chazogula katundu ndi kuchuluka kwa makasitomala, timachepetsa kuchuluka kwa katundu m'nyumba yosungiramo katundu ndikusunga ndendende momwe zidzagulidwe munthawi yake. Podziwa kuchuluka kwa makasitomala nthawi iliyonse, tidzakonza ndondomeko yabwino kwambiri ya ntchito kuti pakhale antchito okwanira omwe ali ndi ndalama zochepa.
2) Kuneneratu za katundu pa ntchito yobereka
Cholinga: kupewa kugwa kwazinthu panthawi yolemetsa kwambiri.
Momwe mungathetsere: kulosera kuchuluka kwa madongosolo, bweretsani kuchuluka kwa magalimoto ndi otumiza pamzere.
3) Kuneneratu za katundu pa malo kukhudzana
Cholinga: kuwonetsetsa kupezeka kofunikira kwa malo olumikizirana ndikuchepetsa ndalama zolipirira malipiro.
Momwe mungathetsere: kulosera kuchuluka kwa mafoni pakapita nthawi, ndikupanga ndandanda yabwino kwa ogwiritsa ntchito.
4) Kulosera zamagalimoto
Cholinga: neneratu kuchuluka kwa ma seva ndi bandwidth kuti azigwira ntchito mokhazikika. Kuti ntchito yanu isasokonezeke pa tsiku loyamba la mndandanda wotchuka wa TV kapena masewera a mpira 😉
5) Kuneneratu nthawi yoyenera kusonkhanitsa ATM
Cholinga: kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimasungidwa mu netiweki ya ATM
6) Njira zothetsera vuto lozizira poyambira pamakina opangira
Cholinga: Limbikitsani zinthu zoyenera kwa ogwiritsa ntchito atsopano.
Wogwiritsa ntchito akagula kangapo, algorithm yosefera yogwirizana imatha kupangidwa kuti igwirizane, koma ngati palibe chidziwitso chokhudza wogwiritsa ntchito, ndibwino kupangira zinthu zodziwika bwino.
Yankho: Kutchuka kwazinthu kumadalira nthawi yomwe malingalirowo apangidwa. Kugwiritsa ntchito zolosera zam'ndandanda kumathandizira kuzindikira zinthu zoyenera panthawi iliyonse.
Tidayang'ana ma hacks amoyo pomanga ma recommender systems .
7) Sakani anomalies
Cholinga: kuzindikira zovuta pakugwiritsa ntchito zida ndi zinthu zomwe siziri mubizinesi
Yankho: Ngati mtengo woyezedwa uli kunja kwa nthawi yodalirika yolosera, chodabwitsa chadziwika. Ngati iyi ndi malo opangira magetsi a nyukiliya, ndi nthawi yoti muwonjezere mtunda wamtunda 😉
Ma algorithms othetsera vutoli
1) Kusuntha kwapakati
Algorithm yosavuta ndiyomwe imasuntha. Tiyeni tiwerengere mtengo wapakati pa zinthu zingapo zapitazi ndikupanga kulosera. Zolosera zanyengo zazitali kuposa masiku 10, njira yofananira imagwiritsidwa ntchito.
Zikafunika kuti zikhalidwe zomaliza pamndandanda zithandizire kulemera kwambiri, timayambitsa ma coefficients kutengera mtunda wa tsikulo, kupeza chitsanzo cholemetsa:
Chifukwa chake, mutha kukhazikitsa W coefficient kuti kulemera kwakukulu kugwere masiku omaliza a 2 ndi masiku olowera.
Kuganizira za cyclical factor
Makhalidwe abwino angakhudzidwe ndi zinthu zozungulira, monga tsiku la sabata, tsiku, maholide am'mbuyo, ndi zina zotero.
Mpunga. 1. Chitsanzo cha kutha kwa mndandanda wa nthawi kukhala zochitika, chigawo cha nyengo ndi phokoso
Exponential smoothing ndi njira yothetsera zinthu zozungulira.
Tiyeni tiwone njira zitatu zoyambira
1. Kusalaza kosavuta (Brown model)
Ikuyimira chiwerengero cha avareji yolemedwa pazinthu 2 zomaliza pamndandanda.
2. Kusalaza kawiri (Model ya Holt)
Imaganizira zakusintha kwazomwe zikuchitika komanso kusinthasintha kwamitengo yotsalira mozungulira izi.
Timawerengera kuneneratu kwa kusintha kwa zotsalira ® ndi zomwe zikuchitika (d). Mtengo womaliza wa y ndi kuchuluka kwa ziwerengero ziwirizi.
3. Kusalaza katatu (Model ya Holt-Winters)
Kusalaza katatu kumaganiziranso kusintha kwa nyengo.
Mafomula osalaza patatu.
ARIMA ndi SARIMA algorithm
Chodabwitsa cha mndandanda wanthawi zogwiritsira ntchito ARIMA ndikulumikizana pakati pa zinthu zakale zomwe zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi zamakono komanso zam'tsogolo.
SARIMA - kukulitsa mndandanda wokhala ndi gawo la nyengo. SARIMAX ndikuwonjezera komwe kumaphatikizapo chigawo chakunja chotsitsimutsa.
Mitundu ya ARIMA imakupatsani mwayi wofananiza nthawi zophatikizika kapena zosiyana.
Njira ya ARIMA pamndandanda wanthawi ndikuti kuyima kwa mndandanda kumawunikidwa koyamba.
Kenaka, mndandandawu umasinthidwa potenga kusiyana kwa dongosolo loyenera, ndipo chitsanzo cha ARMA chimapangidwira chitsanzo chosinthidwa.
ARMA ndi mzere wobwerezabwereza angapo.
Ndikofunika kuti mndandanda ukhale wosasunthika, i.e. tanthauzo ndi kusiyana sikunasinthe. Ngati mndandandawu sunayime, uyenera kubweretsedwa ku mawonekedwe osakhazikika.
XGBoost - tikanakhala kuti popanda izo?
Ngati mndandanda ulibe mawonekedwe amkati, koma pali zinthu zokopa zakunja (woyang'anira, nyengo, ndi zina zotero), ndiye kuti mutha kugwiritsa ntchito mosamala makina ophunzirira makina monga kukulitsa, nkhalango zosasinthika, kutsika, ma neural network ndi SVM.
Kuchokera ku zomwe timuyi idachita DATA 4, kulosera kwanthawi yayitali, imodzi mwantchito zazikulu zothetsera kukhathamiritsa kwa ndalama zosungiramo katundu, ndalama za ogwira ntchito, kukhathamiritsa kukonzanso ma netiweki a ATM, mayendedwe ndi njira zopangira zomanga. Zitsanzo zovuta monga SARIMA zimapereka zotsatira zapamwamba, koma zimatenga nthawi ndipo ndizoyenera pa ntchito zosiyanasiyana.
M'nkhani yotsatira tiwona njira zazikulu zofufuzira zolakwika.
Kuti muwonetsetse kuti zolembazo zikugwirizana ndi zomwe mumakonda, tengani kafukufuku pansipa, kapena lembani mu ndemanga zomwe mungalembe m'nkhani zotsatirazi.
Ogwiritsa ntchito olembetsedwa okha ndi omwe angatenge nawo gawo pa kafukufukuyu. chonde.
Zolemba za mutu uti womwe mumakonda?
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Amalangiza machitidwe
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Kuzindikirika kwazithunzi
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Kukonza mawu ndi mawu
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Zomangamanga zatsopano ku DNN
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Mndandanda wa nthawi ndi kusaka modabwitsa
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ML mu bizinesi, gwiritsani ntchito
Ogwiritsa ntchito 17 adavota. Ogwiritsa 3 adakana.
Source: www.habr.com