{"id":37209,"date":"2019-10-31T22:16:21","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T19:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/zolotoe-sechenie-v-ekonomike-chto-eto\/"},"modified":"2019-10-31T22:16:21","modified_gmt":"2019-10-31T19:16:21","slug":"zolotoe-sechenie-v-ekonomike-chto-eto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/ro\/blog\/news\/zolotoe-sechenie-v-ekonomike-chto-eto","title":{"rendered":"Ce este \u201eSec\u021biunea de Aur\u201d \u00een economie?","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

C\u00e2teva cuvinte despre \u00absec\u021biunea de aur\u00bb \u00een sens tradi\u021bional<\/h4>\n

\nSe consider\u0103 c\u0103, dac\u0103 un segment este \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bit \u00een p\u0103r\u021bi astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t partea mai mic\u0103 s\u0103 se refere la partea mai mare, a\u0219a cum partea mai mare se refer\u0103 la \u00eentregul segment, atunci aceast\u0103 \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bire d\u0103 o propor\u021bie de 1\/1,618, pe care grecii antici, \u00eemprumut\u00e2nd-o de la egipteni \u0219i mai vechi, au numit-o \u00absec\u021biunea de aur\u00bb. \u0218i c\u0103 multe edificii arhitecturale \u2013 propor\u021biile contururilor cl\u0103dirilor, raportul dintre elementele lor cheie \u2013 \u00eencep\u00e2nd de la piramidele egiptene \u0219i termin\u00e2nd cu construc\u021biile teoretice ale lui Le Corbusier \u2013 s-au bazat pe aceast\u0103 propor\u021bie.
\nAceasta corespunde \u0219i numerelor Fibonacci, spirala acestora oferind o ilustrare geometric\u0103 detaliat\u0103 a acestei propor\u021bii. <\/p>\n

Mai mult dec\u00e2t at\u00e2t, dimensiunile corpului uman (de la t\u0103lpi la buric, de la buric la cap, de la cap la degete) \u2013 \u00eencep\u00e2nd de la propor\u021biile ideale v\u0103zute \u00een Evul Mediu (omul vitruvian \u0219i altele) \u0219i termin\u00e2nd cu m\u0103sur\u0103torile antropometrice ale popula\u021biei din URSS \u2013 sunt destul de apropiate de aceast\u0103 propor\u021bie.
\n<\/a><\/noindex>
\n\u0218i dac\u0103 ad\u0103ug\u0103m c\u0103 astfel de forme sunt descoperite \u00een obiecte biologice complet diferite: cochilii de molu\u0219te, aranjamentul semin\u021belor \u00een floarea-soarelui \u0219i \u00een conurile de pin, este evident de ce num\u0103rul ira\u021bional care \u00eencepe cu 1,618 a fost declarat \u00abdivin\u00bb \u2013 urmele sale se reg\u0103sesc chiar \u0219i \u00een forma galaxiilor, care tind spre spirala lui Fibonacci!<\/p>\n

Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere toate exemplele enumerare, se poate presupune: <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. avem de-a face cu adev\u0103rate \u00abbig data\u00bb <\/li>\n
  2. chiar \u0219i la prima vedere, ele indic\u0103 o anumit\u0103, dac\u0103 nu universalitate, atunci o r\u0103sp\u00e2ndire extraordinar de larg\u0103 a \u00absec\u021biunii de aur\u00bb \u0219i valorilor apropiate de aceasta.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \u00cen economie<\/h4>\n

    \nSunt bine cunoscute \u0219i utilizate intensiv diagramele Lorenz pentru vizualizarea veniturilor popula\u021biei. Acest instrument macroeconomic puternic, cu diverse varia\u021bii \u0219i clarific\u0103ri (coeficientul decilic, indexul Gini), este utilizat \u00een statistic\u0103 pentru compararea socio-economic\u0103 a \u021b\u0103rilor \u0219i a particularit\u0103\u021bilor acestora \u0219i poate reprezenta o justificare pentru adoptarea de decizii politice \u0219i bugetare majore \u00een domeniul impozitelor, s\u0103n\u0103t\u0103\u021bii, elaborarea planurilor de dezvoltare a \u021b\u0103rilor \u0219i regiunilor.<\/p>\n

    \u0218i de\u0219i, \u00een con\u0219tiin\u021ba cotidian\u0103 normal\u0103, veniturile \u0219i cheltuielile sunt legate una de cealalt\u0103 str\u00e2ns, \u00een Google nu este a\u0219a... Este surprinz\u0103tor, dar am reu\u0219it s\u0103 g\u0103sesc leg\u0103tura dintre diagramele Lorenz \u0219i distribu\u021bia cheltuielilor doar la doi autori ru\u0219i (a\u0219 fi recunosc\u0103tor dac\u0103 cineva \u0219tie lucr\u0103ri similare at\u00e2t \u00een sectorul rus, c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een cel anglofon al internetului). <\/p>\n

    Primul - diserta\u021bia T. M. Bueva. Diserta\u021bia a fost consacrat\u0103, printre altele, optimiz\u0103rii cheltuielilor \u00een fermele avicole din Mari El.<\/p>\n

    Un alt autor, V.V. Matohin (exist\u0103 referin\u021be reciproce \u00eentre autori), abordeaz\u0103 problema mai pe larg. Matohin, fizician prin educa\u021bie, se ocup\u0103 cu prelucrarea statistic\u0103 a datelor utilizate \u00een luarea deciziilor manageriale, precum \u0219i cu evaluarea adaptabilit\u0103\u021bii \u0219i gestionabilit\u0103\u021bii companiilor.<\/p>\n

    Conceptul \u0219i exemplele prezentate mai jos sunt extrase din lucr\u0103rile lui V. Matohin \u0219i ale colegilor s\u0103i (Matohin, 1995), (Antoniou et al., 2002), (Kryanev et al., 1998), (Matohin et al., 2018). \u00cen leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu acest lucru, trebuie ad\u0103ugat c\u0103 erorile posibile \u00een interpretarea lucr\u0103rilor lor sunt \u00een \u00eentregime responsabilitatea autorului acestor r\u00e2nduri \u0219i nu pot fi atribuite textelor academice originale. <\/p>\n

    Constan\u021ba nea\u0219teptat\u0103<\/h4>\n

    \nReflectat \u00een graficele prezentate mai jos.<\/p>\n

    1. Distribu\u021bia granturilor conform competi\u021biei lucr\u0103rilor \u0219tiin\u021bifice \u0219i tehnice \u00een cadrul Programului Na\u021bional \u201eSuperconductivitate la temperaturi \u00eenalte\u201d. (Matohin, 1995)
    \n\"Ce
    \nFig.1. Propor\u021biile \u00een distribu\u021bia anual\u0103 a fondurilor pentru proiecte \u00een perioada 1988-1994.<\/i>
    \nCaracteristicile principale ale distribu\u021biilor anuale sunt prezentate \u00een Tabelul 3, unde SN reprezint\u0103 suma anual\u0103 a fondurilor distribuite (\u00een milioane ruble), iar N este num\u0103rul proiectelor finan\u021bate. Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103, \u00een ace\u0219ti ani, compunerea personalului juriului competi\u021biei s-a schimbat, bugetul competi\u021biei \u0219i chiar scala banilor (\u00eenainte \u0219i dup\u0103 reforma din 1991), stabilitatea curbelor reale \u00een timp este surprinz\u0103toare. Linia neagr\u0103 din grafik este format\u0103 din puncte experimentale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\n1988<\/td>\n1989<\/td>\n1990<\/td>\n1991<\/td>\n1992<\/td>\n1993<\/td>\n1994<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    S<\/td>\n273<\/td>\n362<\/td>\n432<\/td>\n553<\/td>\n345<\/td>\n353<\/td>\n253<\/td>\nX<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Sn<\/td>\n143.1<\/td>\n137.6<\/td>\n136.9<\/td>\n411.2<\/td>\n109.4<\/td>\n920<\/td>\n977<\/td>\nY<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    \nTabelul 3<\/i><\/p>\n

    2. Curba cheltuielilor legate de v\u00e2nzarea stocurilor de bunuri (Kotlyar, 1989)
    \n\"Ce
    \nFig.2<\/i> <\/p>\n

    3. Grila tarifar\u0103 a salariilor pe grade<\/p>\n

    Ca exemplu pentru construirea diagramei, au fost folosite date din documentul \u201eProces verbal: c\u00e2te salarii de baz\u0103 pe an ar trebui s\u0103 aib\u0103 fiecare grad\u201d (Suvorov, 2014)(\u201e\u0218tiin\u021ba de a \u00eenvinge\u201d). <\/p>\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Grad<\/td>\nSalariu (rub.)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Colonel<\/td>\n585<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Locotenent-colonel<\/td>\n351<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Maior Exemplar<\/td>\n292<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Major Secunde<\/td>\n243<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Cvadruplu<\/td>\n117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Aide-de-camp<\/td>\n117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Comisar<\/td>\n98<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \u2026<\/td>\n\u2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    \n<\/td>\n

    		\"Ce
    \nFig. 3. Diagrama propor\u021bionalit\u0103\u021bii salariilor anuale pe grade\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    4. Programul de lucru mediu al unui manager american de nivel mediu (Mintzberg, 1973)
    \n \"Ce
    \nFig.4 <\/i> <\/p>\n

    Graficele normalizate prezentate sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 activit\u0103\u021bile economice ilustrate au o regularitate comun\u0103. De\u0219i exist\u0103 diferen\u021be radicale \u00een specificul activit\u0103\u021bilor economice, pe loc \u0219i timp, este foarte probabil ca asem\u0103narea graficelelor s\u0103 fie dictat\u0103 de o anumit\u0103 condi\u021bie fundamental\u0103 a func\u021bion\u0103rii sistemelor economice. La fel ca \u00een mileniile de activitate economic\u0103, printr-un num\u0103r enorm de \u00eencerc\u0103ri \u0219i erori, subiec\u021bii acestei activit\u0103\u021bi au descoperit o strategie optim\u0103 de alocare a resurselor. \u0218i o folosesc intuitiv \u00een activitatea curent\u0103. Aceast\u0103 presupunere se potrive\u0219te bine cu cunoscutul principiu Pareto: 20% din eforturile noastre genereaz\u0103 80% din rezultate. Aici se observ\u0103 clar ceva similar. Graficele prezentate exprim\u0103 o regularitate empiric\u0103 care, \u00een cazul transform\u0103rii \u00een diagrama Lorenz, este descris\u0103 cu o precizie suficient\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd coeficientul de putere \u201ealpha\u201d este 2. La acest coeficient, diagrama Lorenz devine o parte dintr-un cerc.<\/p>\n

    Putem numi aceast\u0103 caracteristic\u0103, care nu are \u00eenc\u0103 o denumire stabil\u0103, viabilitate. Prin analogie cu viabilitatea \u00een s\u0103lb\u0103ticie, viabilitatea sistemului economic este determinat\u0103 de adaptarea sa la condi\u021biile mediu-social-economice \u0219i capacitatea de a se adapta la schimb\u0103rile condi\u021biilor de pia\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

    Aceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 un sistem \u00een care distribu\u021bia cheltuielilor este aproape de ideal (cu un coeficient de putere \u201ealpha\u201d de 2 sau distribu\u021bia cheltuielilor \u201esub form\u0103 de cerc\u201d) are cele mai mari \u0219anse de a supravie\u021bui \u00een forma sa actual\u0103. Este remarcabil c\u0103, \u00een unele cazuri, aceast\u0103 distribu\u021bie determin\u0103 \u0219i cea mai mare rentabilitate a \u00eentreprinderii. De exemplu, aici. Cu c\u00e2t coeficientul de abateri de la ideal este mai mic, cu at\u00e2t rentabilitatea \u00eentreprinderii este mai mare (Buieva, 2002).<\/p>\n

    Tabel (fragment)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\nDenumirea gospod\u0103riei, regiunii<\/td>\nRentabilitate (%)<\/td>\nCoeficientul de abateri<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    1<\/td>\nGUP p\/f \u201eVoljskaya\u201d din raionul Voljsk<\/td>\n13,0<\/td>\n0,336<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2<\/td>\nSPK p\/f \u201eGornomariyskaya\u201d<\/td>\n11,1<\/td>\n0,18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    3<\/td>\nUMSP s-z \u201eZvenigovskiy\u201d<\/td>\n33,7<\/td>\n0,068<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    4<\/td>\nSocietatea pe ac\u021biuni \u00abMariiskoe\u00bb din raionul Medvedev<\/td>\n7,5<\/td>\n0,195<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    5<\/td>\nSocietatea pe ac\u021biuni \u00abTeprichnoe\u00bb din raionul Medvedev<\/td>\n16,3<\/td>\n0,107<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \u2026<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    47<\/td>\nSocietatea de produc\u021bie cooperativ\u0103 (k-z) \u00abRassvet\u00bb din raionul Soviet<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n0,303<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    48<\/td>\nCooperativa agricol\u0103 \u00abBronievik\u00bb din raionul Kilemarsk<\/td>\n14,2<\/td>\n0,117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    49<\/td>\nCooperativa agricol\u0103 \u00abAvangard\u00bb din raionul Morca<\/td>\n6,5<\/td>\n0,261<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    50<\/td>\nCooperativa agricol\u0103 fondat\u0103 de Petrov din raionul Morca<\/td>\n22,5<\/td>\n0,135<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

    Concluzii practice<\/h4>\n

    \nAtunci c\u00e2nd planifica\u021bi cheltuielile, at\u00e2t pentru companii, c\u00e2t \u0219i pentru gospod\u0103rii, este util s\u0103 construi\u021bi o curb\u0103 a lui Lorenz \u0219i s\u0103 o compara\u021bi cu cea ideal\u0103. Cu c\u00e2t diagrama dumneavoastr\u0103 se apropie mai mult de cea ideal\u0103, cu at\u00e2t este mai probabil s\u0103 planifica\u021bi corect \u0219i ca activitatea dumneavoastr\u0103 s\u0103 fie un succes. Aceast\u0103 apropiere confirm\u0103 c\u0103 planurile dumneavoastr\u0103 sunt \u00een concordan\u021b\u0103 cu experien\u021ba activit\u0103\u021bilor economice ale umanit\u0103\u021bii, care s-au concretizat \u00een astfel de legi empirice universal recunoscute, cum ar fi principiul Pareto.<\/p>\n

    Cu toate acestea, se poate presupune c\u0103 aici se discut\u0103 despre func\u021bionarea unui sistem economic matur, orientat spre rentabilitate. Dac\u0103 nu este vorba despre maximizarea profitului, ci, de exemplu, despre modernizarea companiei sau despre o cre\u0219tere semnificativ\u0103 a cotei de pia\u021b\u0103, atunci curba dumneavoastr\u0103 de distribu\u021bie a cheltuielilor se va \u00eendep\u0103rta de cerc. <\/p>\n

    Este clar c\u0103, \u0219i \u00een cazul unei start-up cu economia sa specific\u0103, diagrama lui Lorenz, care r\u0103spunde la cea mai mare probabilitate de succes, va devia de asemenea de la cerc. Se poate emite ipoteza c\u0103 devia\u021biile curbei de distribu\u021bie a cheltuielilor c\u0103tre interiorul cercului corespund at\u00e2t unor riscuri mai mari, c\u00e2t \u0219i unei adaptabilit\u0103\u021bi reduse a companiei. Totu\u0219i, f\u0103r\u0103 sprijinul unor mari mase statistice privind start-up-urile (at\u00e2t cele de succes, c\u00e2t \u0219i cele nereu\u0219ite), prognozele calificate \u0219i fundamentate sunt pu\u021bin probabile. <\/p>\n

    Dup\u0103 alt\u0103 ipotez\u0103, devierea curbei de distribu\u021bie a cheltuielilor \u00een exteriorul cercului poate fi un semnal fie al suprarereglement\u0103rii managementului, fie un semnal al falimentului iminent. Pentru a verifica aceast\u0103 ipotez\u0103, este necesar\u0103, de asemenea, o anumit\u0103 baz\u0103 de referin\u021b\u0103, care, la fel ca \u00een cazul start-up-urilor, este pu\u021bin probabil s\u0103 existe \u00een acces deschis.<\/p>\n

    \u00cen concluzie<\/h4>\n

    \nPrimele mari publica\u021bii pe aceast\u0103 tem\u0103 dateaz\u0103 din 1995 (Matohin, 1995). \u0218i mai pu\u021bin cunoscut\u0103, Universitatea acestor lucr\u0103ri, av\u00e2nd o aplicabilitate universal\u0103 \u0219i o utilizare radical nou\u0103 a modelului \u0219i instrumentelor utilizate pe scar\u0103 larg\u0103 de economi\u0219ti r\u0103m\u00e2ne, \u00eentr-un fel, o enigm\u0103...
    \n
    Sursa: habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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