{"id":56281,"date":"2020-02-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-08T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:04:32","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:04:32","slug":"analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/ro\/blog\/news\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","title":{"rendered":"Analiza pie\u021bei imobiliare bazat\u0103 pe date de la msgr.ru","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

Recent am \u00eent\u00e2lnit cu problema alegerii unei apartamente \u0219i, bine\u00een\u021beles, primul pas a fost s\u0103 aflu ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 pe pia\u021ba imobiliar\u0103 \u0219i, a\u0219a cum se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 de obicei, jum\u0103tate din exper\u021bi spun c\u0103 youtube.com<\/a><\/noindex> imobiliarele vor cre\u0219te, iar cealalt\u0103 jum\u0103tate afirm\u0103 c\u0103, dimpotriv\u0103, pre\u021burile vor sc\u0103dea. A\u0219a c\u0103 am decis s\u0103 m\u0103 documentez singur \u0219i iat\u0103 ce am descoperit.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\n© Designed by upklyak \/ Freepik<\/a><\/noindex><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Pentru a \u00een\u021belege cum au evoluat pre\u021burile \u00een ultima vreme, a trebuit s\u0103 g\u0103sesc pre\u021buri reale ale apartamentelor v\u00e2ndute. Pre\u021burile de pe site-uri \u021bint\u0103, cum ar fi cian.ru<\/a><\/noindex> sau avito.ru<\/a><\/noindex> nu sunt relevante, deoarece acolo apartamentele sunt de obicei v\u00e2ndute la pre\u021b redus \u0219i nu po\u021bi afla pre\u021bul real de v\u00e2nzare. Aici am observat un site de v\u00e2nz\u0103ri imobiliare, unde puteam verifica pre\u021bul real la care fusese cump\u0103rat un apartament. Vorbim, desigur, despre site-ul msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, mai multe detalii pot fi g\u0103site \u00een aceasta<\/a><\/noindex> recenzie. Pe scurt, aceast\u0103 organiza\u021bie se ocup\u0103 cu v\u00e2nzarea apartamentelor printr-un contract de rent\u0103 \u00eendeplinit\u0103 la licita\u021bie.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pentru a afla \u00een care zone din Moscova ce pre\u021buri sunt, ar fi interesant s\u0103 v\u0103d \u0219i care apartamente se v\u00e2nd mai mult, \u00een ce zone se cump\u0103r\u0103 mai aproape de pre\u021bul de start \u0219i \u00een care pre\u021bul poate varia drastic. \u00cen acest scop, am \u00eenceput prin a extrage date de pe site-ul msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, aceste date fiind \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bite \u00een dou\u0103 tipuri: licita\u021bii finalizate \u0219i nefinalizate, iar apartamentele care nu au fost v\u00e2ndute pot fi prezente \u00een ambele locuri.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Datele extrase le-am compilat \u00eentr-un tabel pentru claritate:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nTabelul include datele pentru ultimele 10 licita\u021bii.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u00cen tabelul de mai sus, \u00een coloana ‘A’ este indicat\u0103 informa\u021bia despre apartamentele de licita\u021bie (adresele f\u0103r\u0103 spa\u021bii \u0219i litere mari din cauza diferen\u021belor de scriere \u00een datele originale), iar \u00een prima linie sunt datele despre licita\u021biile viitoare \u0219i cele trecute. Apartamentele v\u00e2ndute sunt marcate cu ‘xxx’ pe linie (aceasta a fost f\u0103cut\u0103 pentru a \u00een\u021belege care apartamente ar putea fi disponibile \u00een licita\u021biile care nu au fost \u00eenc\u0103 anun\u021bate), \u00een partea de sus a celulelor este pre\u021bul de pornire, iar \u00een partea de jos pre\u021bul de v\u00e2nzare, iar \u00een celulele licita\u021biilor viitoare este un link cu descrierea apartamentului.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

De asemenea, \u00een aceast\u0103 tabel\u0103 pot fi observate anumite tendin\u021be curioase, cum ar fi faptul c\u0103, \u00een general, dac\u0103 un apartament nu se vinde dup\u0103 dou\u0103 licita\u021bii, pre\u021bul va fi redus la a treia licita\u021bie \u0219i a\u0219a mai departe, la fiecare dou\u0103 licita\u021bii. Totu\u0219i, dac\u0103 ne uit\u0103m la un e\u0219antion mai mare, observ\u0103m c\u0103 din aceast\u0103 regul\u0103 exist\u0103 excep\u021bii, iar apartamentele pot sc\u0103dea deja la urm\u0103toarea licita\u021bie, dac\u0103 nu au fost v\u00e2ndute la prima licita\u021bie.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pentru a \u00een\u021belege \u00een care zone \u0219i pentru ce grupuri de apartamente se v\u00e2nd mai bine, am plasat toate adresele pe hart\u0103:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nLink c\u0103tre harta complet\u0103 hart\u0103<\/a><\/noindex>.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pe hart\u0103 sunt marcate adresele apartamentelor care au fost sau vor fi v\u00e2ndute, \u00een titlul marcajului este indicat pre\u021bul de v\u00e2nzare (nu pre\u021bul de v\u00e2nzare \/ licita\u021bie), anul v\u00e2nz\u0103rii \u0219i num\u0103rul de la care a fost v\u00e2ndut apartamentul. Num\u0103rul din marcaj arat\u0103 num\u0103rul de camere ale apartamentului. \u00cen descrierea marcajului se afl\u0103 informa\u021bii despre licita\u021biile trecute \u0219i viitoare, precum \u0219i adresele (adresele f\u0103r\u0103 spa\u021bii \u0219i litere mari din cauza varia\u021biilor din datele originale) \u0219i alte informa\u021bii despre apartament.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Datorit\u0103 h\u0103r\u021bii, se poate observa cum a evoluat pre\u021bul \u00een zon\u0103 de-a lungul timpului \u0219i c\u00e2t de mult se negociaz\u0103 pentru op\u021biuni similare. Un aspect interesant este c\u0103 fondul nou, adic\u0103 apartamentele din cl\u0103diri noi, chiar \u0219i \u00een zone cu accesibilitate proast\u0103 la transport, se v\u00e2nd de obicei cu negociere, \u00een timp ce apartamentele din fondul vechi pot fi cump\u0103rate la pre\u021bul de start sau cu o mic\u0103 negociere. Pe hart\u0103 se poate face o prognoz\u0103 aproximativ\u0103 pentru licita\u021bii, analiz\u00e2nd apartamentele deja v\u00e2ndute situate \u00een jurul apartamentului scos la licita\u021bie.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

De\u0219i nu este complet corect s\u0103 compar\u0103m apartamentele din fondul vechi \u0219i nou, \u0219i apartamentele licitate sunt puternic \u00eenclinate c\u0103tre fondul vechi datorit\u0103 specificului msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, totu\u0219i s\u0103 examin\u0103m c\u00e2teva histogram\u0103 cu aceste presupuneri.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram\u0103 a pre\u021burilor medii la apartamente pe ani \u0219i num\u0103rul de camere:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nNum\u0103rul total de apartamente: 397<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pre\u021burile medii nu sunt corecte s\u0103 fie analizate \u00een afara contextului zonei, de aceea s\u0103 examin\u0103m apartamentele din fiecare zon\u0103 \u00een parte (au fost analizate doar zonele din interiorul MKAD).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram\u0103 a pre\u021burilor medii pentru apartamente cu un dormitor, \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bite pe zone \u0219i ani:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nNum\u0103rul total de apartamente cu un dormitor: 218<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram\u0103 a pre\u021burilor medii pentru apartamente cu dou\u0103 dormitoare, \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bite pe zone \u0219i ani:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nNum\u0103rul total de apartamente cu dou\u0103 camere: 159<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Din p\u0103cate, exist\u0103 prea pu\u021bine apartamente cu trei camere, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t nu se poate construi un histogram\u0103 corect\u0103.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nNum\u0103rul total de apartamente cu trei camere: 20<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere presupunerile prezentate mai sus (de altfel, la momentul redact\u0103rii acestui articol, \u00een 2020 a avut loc doar o licita\u021bie), se pot totu\u0219i trasa unele concluzii. Dac\u0103 ne uit\u0103m la distribu\u021bia pre\u021burilor pe cartiere, putem observa c\u0103, \u00een general, pre\u021bul cre\u0219te, dar deja se contureaz\u0103 o schimbare, deoarece \u00een unele zone pre\u021burile \u00eencep s\u0103 se stabilizeze, iar \u00een altele ritmul de cre\u0219tere \u00eencetine\u0219te (ceea ce, \u00een general, indic\u0103 atingerea pre\u021burilor maxime \u0219i, cel mai probabil, sc\u0103deri ulterioare).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Codul surs\u0103 pe github.com<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Sursa: habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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