{"id":52568,"date":"2019-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:00:20","slug":"gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/sk\/blog\/news\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","title":{"rendered":"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza trendov","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Technol\u00f3gie AI z roku 2019 sme podrobne rozobrali a bez hanby ich porovnali s predpove\u010fou z roku 2017.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza trendov\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/9e39aceb55783b5f072efe5b0a94672c.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n<p>Po prv\u00e9, \u010do je Gartner Hype Cycle? Je to ak\u00fdsi cyklus zrelosti technol\u00f3gie, presnej\u0161ie prechod od f\u00e1zy hype k jej produkt\u00edvnemu vyu\u017eitiu. Teraz bude graf s prekladom, aby to bolo n\u00e1zorn\u00e9 <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/en\/research\/methodologies\/gartner-hype-cycle\">V\u0161etko<\/a><\/noindex>. A ni\u017e\u0161ie s\u00fa vysvetlenia.<br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza trendov\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/18e511b34c2a7c007f1b4e01acfb0ef4.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Prv\u00e1 f\u00e1za. \u0336H\u0336n\u0336e\u0336v\u0336. <strong>Spustenie.<\/strong> Technol\u00f3gia sa objavuje, o nej diskutuj\u00fa najprv osvetlen\u00ed nerdovia a potom aj fanatick\u00e9 verejnosti; postupne narast\u00e1 vzru\u0161enie.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Druh\u00e1 f\u00e1za. \u0336T\u0336o\u0336r\u0336g\u0336. <strong>Hrot prehnan\u00fdch o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00ed.<\/strong> V nejakom momente u\u017e v\u0161etci hovoria o technol\u00f3gii, sna\u017eia sa ju implementova\u0165, a najmaj\u00faci sa sna\u017eia pred\u00e1va\u0165 za premr\u0161ten\u00e9 ceny.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Tretia f\u00e1za. \u0336D\u0336e\u0336p\u0336r\u0336e\u0336s\u0336s\u0336i\u0336a\u0336.\u0336 <strong>\u00dapadok z\u00e1ujmu.<\/strong> Technol\u00f3gia sa akt\u00edvne implementuje a \u010dasto zlyh\u00e1va kv\u00f4li nedostatkom a obmedzeniam. \u201eJe to v\u0161etko hl\u00fapos\u0165!\u201c \u2013 zaznieva tu a tam. Vzru\u0161enie prudko kles\u00e1 (cena, \u010dasto, tie\u017e).<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>\u0160tvrt\u00e1 f\u00e1za. \u0336O\u0336t\u0336r\u0336i\u0336c\u0336a\u0336n\u0336i\u0336e\u0336.\u0336 <strong>Pr\u00e1ca na chyb\u00e1ch.<\/strong> Technol\u00f3gia sa vylep\u0161uje, probl\u00e9my sa rie\u0161ia. Postupne sa spolo\u010dnosti opatrne sna\u017eia implementova\u0165 technol\u00f3giu a, hur\u00e1, v\u0161etko ide skvele.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Piat\u00e1 f\u00e1za. \u0336P\u0336r\u0336i\u0336n\u0336y\u0336t\u0336i\u0336e\u0336.\u0336 <strong>Produkt\u00edvna pr\u00e1ca.<\/strong> Technol\u00f3gia si z\u00edskava svoje zasl\u00fa\u017een\u00e9 miesto na trhu a pokojne funguje, vyv\u00edja sa, p\u00e1\u010di sa.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"chto-v-trende\">\u010co je v trende?<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Vraciame sa k hype cyklu 2019. Spolo\u010dnos\u0165 Gartner <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2019\">vydala<\/a><\/noindex> v septembri zverejnila spr\u00e1vu o tom, ak\u00e9 technol\u00f3gie umelej inteligencie s\u00fa v ak\u00fdch f\u00e1zach a kedy za\u010dn\u00fa fungova\u0165 produkt\u00edvne. Graf je ni\u017e\u0161ie, koment\u00e1re pod grafom.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: anal\u00fdza trendov\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/e97ad21859354ea40467c07c99537f65.jpeg\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>S ve\u013ek\u00fdm odstupom a u\u017e v f\u00e1ze 'Produkt\u00edvna pr\u00e1ca' s\u00fa technol\u00f3gie 'Rozpozn\u00e1vanie re\u010di' a 'Zr\u00fdchlenie procesov pomocou GPU'. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ich treba r\u00fdchlo aplikova\u0165, preto\u017ee u\u017e poskytuj\u00fa konkuren\u010dn\u00fa v\u00fdhodu svojim vlastn\u00edkom.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Automatick\u00e9 u\u010denie strojov (AutoML) a chatboty s\u00fa teraz na vrchole hype. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee o nich v\u0161etci hovoria, mnoh\u00ed ich implementuj\u00fa, ale na doladenie technol\u00f3gi\u00ed do potrebnej podoby bude potrebn\u00e9 od 2 do 5 rokov.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Zvy\u010dajn\u00e9 stroje s\u00fa teraz tie\u017e viac ne\u017e v trende. Technol\u00f3gia 'auton\u00f3mne dopravn\u00e9 prostriedky' takmer siahne na dno. V tomto pr\u00edpade je to dobr\u00e9, preto\u017ee pred nami je produkt\u00edvna pr\u00e1ca. Av\u0161ak pod\u013ea odhadov spolo\u010dnosti Gartner bude na pr\u00e1cu a \u00fapravy potrebn\u00e9 najmenej 10 rokov.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Kde sa dnes nach\u00e1dzaj\u00fa kedysi popul\u00e1rne drony a virtu\u00e1lna realita? V\u0161etko je na svojom mieste \u2013 Gartner zaradil drony do oblasti Edge AI (kateg\u00f3rie hrani\u010diace s AI), a virtu\u00e1lna realita sa stala s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou roz\u0161\u00edrenej inteligencie (Augmented intelligence). Obe t\u00e9my s\u00fa teraz na \u0161tarte a maj\u00fa pozit\u00edvny predpoklad: 2-5 rokov do produkt\u00edvneho fungovania na trhu.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"perspektivy\">Vyhliadky<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Z perspekt\u00edvnych funkci\u00ed: Softv\u00e9r na automatiz\u00e1ciu procesov (Robotic process automation software) \u2013 znie to desivo, ale v skuto\u010dnosti ide o to, \u017ee robot nahr\u00e1dza rutinn\u00e9 \u00fakony. No\u010dn\u00e1 mora nekvalifikovan\u00e9ho person\u00e1lu; av\u0161ak <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oracle.com\/a\/ocom\/docs\/artificial-intelligence\/hbr-pulse-survey.pdf\">v\u00fdskum<\/a><\/noindex> Harvard Business Review tvrd\u00ed: prep\u00fa\u0161\u0165anie nebude, ale produktivita pr\u00e1ce vzrastie. Existuj\u00fa <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iZJ6W803zaU\">d\u00f4vody<\/a><\/noindex> veri\u0165. Technol\u00f3gia za 2 roky prejde vrcholom nep popularity a v\u0161eobecn\u00e9ho opovrhnutia a potom sa roz\u0161\u00edri do \u0161irok\u00e9ho pou\u017eitia.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Z technol\u00f3gi\u00ed, o ktor\u00fdch bud\u00fa masovo informova\u0165 evanjelisti a infopodnikatelia v\u0161etk\u00fdch druhov len v perspekt\u00edve, s\u00fa zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 \u201eneuromorfn\u00e9 zariadenia\u201c. Ide o elektrick\u00e9 zariadenia (\u010dipy), ktor\u00e9 <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/neuromorphic-hardware-trying-to-put-brain-into-chips-222132f7e4de\">napodob\u0148uj\u00fa<\/a><\/noindex> prirodzen\u00e9 biologick\u00e9 \u0161trukt\u00fary na\u0161ich nervov\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov z h\u013eadiska energetickej efekt\u00edvnosti. Ak to ve\u013emi zjednodu\u0161\u00edme, ide o superv\u00fdkon v\u010faka deleniu pr\u00e1ce (asynchr\u00f3nnemu obnoveniu neur\u00f3nov). Tak\u00e9 giganti ako IBM a Intel u\u017e usilovne pracuj\u00fa na vytv\u00e1ran\u00ed neuromorfn\u00fdch \u010dipov. Ale arm\u00e1da Johna Connora m\u00e1 \u010das pripravi\u0165 sa na \u00faverov\u00fd de\u0148 \u2013 Gartner pridelil na zrelos\u0165 technol\u00f3gie cel\u00fdch 10 rokov. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>O digit\u00e1lnej etike (Digital Ethics), \u010do je charakteristick\u00e9, sa hovor\u00ed ve\u013ea, ale implementova\u0165 sa ve\u013emi nechystaj\u00fa. Toto smerovanie je vy\u010dlenen\u00e9 do samostatnej kateg\u00f3rie oblast\u00ed AI: ide o to, \u017ee by bolo dobr\u00e9 stanovi\u0165 nejak\u00e9 etick\u00e9 z\u00e1sady, normy a \u0161tandardy zberu d\u00e1t, zav\u00e1dzania AI do \u017eivota, jednoducho, aby to bolo ako u <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk\/ai-and-digital-ethics\">\u013eud\u00ed<\/a><\/noindex>. Napokon, d\u00e1 sa in\u0161pirova\u0165 Ajzomovom. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"2017-vs-2019\">2017 vs 2019<\/h3>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1bavn\u00e9 je, \u017ee v 2017 bolo v\u0161etko <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/top-trends-in-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2017\/\">inak<\/a><\/noindex>, dokonca nebolo vyhraden\u00e9 samostatn\u00e9 hype cyklu na AI: technol\u00f3gie AI i\u0161li v lokomotive rozv\u00edjaj\u00facich sa technol\u00f3gi\u00ed (Emerging Technologies) spolu s blockchainom a roz\u0161\u00edrenou realitou. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Strojov\u00e9 u\u010denie a hlbok\u00e9 u\u010denie boli v 2017 na hype olympi\u00e1de, zatia\u013e \u010do v 2019 pokra\u010dovali svojou cestou smerom nadol, to znamen\u00e1 <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/vc.ru\/tribuna\/81813-zhivoy-primer-kompyuternogo-zreniya-v-promyshlennosti\">k produkt\u00edvnej pr\u00e1ci<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Mimochodom, drony prech\u00e1dzali od vrcholu k poklesu a v roku 2019 sa vr\u00e1tili sp\u00e4\u0165 smerom k vrcholu. A tak\u00e9to veci sa st\u00e1vaj\u00fa. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>V roku 2019 do cyklu vst\u00fapilo 8 nov\u00fdch technol\u00f3gi\u00ed. Medzi nimi s\u00fa cloudov\u00e9 slu\u017eby AI (Cloud Services), trhovisk\u00e1 AI (Marketplaces), kvantov\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my s AI (Quantum Computing). V podstate dobre zn\u00e1me (v \u00fazkych kruhoch) n\u00e1stroje, ktor\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa by\u0165 zaraden\u00e9 do AI.<\/p>\n<p>Zdroj: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/post\/475032\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0441 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u043e\u043c 2017 \u0433\u043e\u0434\u0430. \u0412\u043e-\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0445, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a\u043e\u0435 Gartner Hype Cycle? \u042d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0435\u0433\u043e \u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b \u0437\u0440\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438, \u0430 \u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0430 \u043e\u0442 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0445\u0430\u0439\u043f\u0430 \u043a \u0435\u0451 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0438\u0441\u043f\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0437\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044e. \u0421\u0435\u0439\u0447\u0430\u0441 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442 \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444\u0438\u043a \u0441 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043c, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431 \u043d\u0430\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0432\u0441\u0451. \u0410 \u0432\u043d\u0438\u0437\u0443 \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0441\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0434\u0438\u044f. \u0336\u0413\u0336\u043d\u0336\u0435\u0336\u0432\u0336. \u0417\u0430\u043f\u0443\u0441\u043a. \u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u044f \u043f\u043e\u044f\u0432\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f, \u0435\u0451 \u043e\u0431\u0441\u0443\u0436\u0434\u0430\u044e\u0442 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[702],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.5 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0420\u0430\u0437\u043b\u043e\u0436\u0438\u043b\u0438 AI \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0438 2019 \u043f\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0447\u043a\u0430\u043c \u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0441\u0441\u0442\u044b\u0434\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043b\u0438 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