{"id":56281,"date":"2020-02-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-08T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:04:32","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:04:32","slug":"analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/sk\/blog\/news\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","title":{"rendered":"Anal\u00fdza trhu s nehnute\u013enos\u0165ami na z\u00e1klade \u00fadajov z msgr.ru","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

Ned\u00e1vno som sa stretol s probl\u00e9mom v\u00fdberu bytu a samozrejme som sa najprv rozhodol zisti\u0165, \u010do sa deje na trhu s nehnute\u013enos\u0165ami a, ako to zvy\u010dajne b\u00fdva, polovica expertov hovor\u00ed, \u017ee youtube.com<\/a><\/noindex> nehnute\u013enos\u0165 bude r\u00e1s\u0165, in\u00ed tvrdia, \u017ee naopak cena bude klesa\u0165. Nakoniec som sa rozhodol pr\u00eds\u0165 na to s\u00e1m a toto je to, \u010do z toho vy\u0161lo.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\n© Navrhnut\u00e9 upklyak \/ Freepik<\/a><\/noindex><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Aby som pochopil, ako sa cena v poslednom \u010dase menila, potreboval som n\u00e1js\u0165 skuto\u010dn\u00e9 ceny predaja nehnute\u013enost\u00ed. Ceny z cie\u013eov\u00fdch str\u00e1nok ako s\u00fa cian.ru<\/a><\/noindex> alebo avito.ru<\/a><\/noindex> nie s\u00fa vhodn\u00e9, preto\u017ee tam zvy\u010dajne byty odch\u00e1dzaj\u00fa so z\u013eavou a skuto\u010dn\u00fa cenu predaja nemo\u017eno zisti\u0165, tu som si v\u0161imol str\u00e1nku na predaj nehnute\u013enost\u00ed, na ktorej bolo mo\u017en\u00e9 vidie\u0165 aktu\u00e1lnu cenu, za ktor\u00fa bol byt k\u00fapen\u00fd. Re\u010d je samozrejme o str\u00e1nke msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, podrobnej\u0161ie o \u0148om sa d\u00e1 pre\u010d\u00edta\u0165 v tom<\/a><\/noindex> preh\u013eade. V dvoch slov\u00e1ch sa d\u00e1 poveda\u0165, \u017ee t\u00e1to organiz\u00e1cia sa zaober\u00e1 predajom bytov na z\u00e1klade zmluvy o vykonanej rente na aukci\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Aby som zistil, ak\u00e9 ceny s\u00fa v r\u00f4znych \u0161tvrtiach Moskvy, a taktie\u017e by ma zauj\u00edmalo, na ktor\u00e9 byty sa s\u00fa\u0165a\u017e\u00ed viac, v ktor\u00fdch \u0161tvrtiach sa kupuje bli\u017e\u0161ie k \u0161tartovacej cene, a v ktor\u00fdch cena m\u00f4\u017ee v\u00fdrazne vzr\u00e1s\u0165. Na to som najprv zozbieral \u00fadaje zo str\u00e1nky msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, tieto \u00fadaje s\u00fa rozdelen\u00e9 do dvoch typov: skon\u010den\u00e9 a neskon\u010den\u00e9 aukcie, pri\u010dom byty, ktor\u00e9 neboli predan\u00e9, m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 na dvoch miestach z\u00e1rove\u0148.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Zo zbieran\u00fdch \u00fadajov som vytvoril tabu\u013eku pre lep\u0161iu preh\u013eadnos\u0165:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nV tabu\u013eke s\u00fa uveden\u00e9 \u00fadaje za posledn\u00fdch 10 aukci\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

V uvedenej tabu\u013eke v st\u013apci ‘A’ s\u00fa uveden\u00e9 inform\u00e1cie o auk\u010dn\u00fdch bytoch (adresy bez medzier a ve\u013ek\u00fdch p\u00edsmen kv\u00f4li rozdielom v z\u00e1pise v p\u00f4vodn\u00fdch \u00fadajoch), v prvom riadku s\u00fa d\u00e1tumy bud\u00facich a minul\u00fdch aukci\u00ed. Predan\u00e9 byty sa vypl\u0148uj\u00fa ‘xxx’ v riadku (to sa rob\u00ed preto, aby sme pochopili, ktor\u00e9 byty s\u00fa dostupn\u00e9 na e\u0161te neohl\u00e1sen\u00fdch aukci\u00e1ch), v hornom riadku buniek je uveden\u00e1 \u0161tartovacia cena a v dolnom cena predaja, v bunk\u00e1ch bud\u00facich aukci\u00ed je odkaz na popis bytu.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Aj v tejto tabu\u013eke m\u00f4\u017eete vidie\u0165 niektor\u00e9 zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 vzory, napr\u00edklad obvykl\u00e9 pravidlo, \u017ee ak sa byt nepred\u00e1 na dvoch aukci\u00e1ch, na tretej aukcii bude cena zn\u00ed\u017een\u00e1 a tak \u010falej po ka\u017ed\u00fdch dvoch aukci\u00e1ch, aj ke\u010f pri poh\u013eade na v\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed vzor existuj\u00fa v\u00fdnimky a byt sa zvy\u010dajne zni\u017euje u\u017e na nasleduj\u00facej aukcii, ak nebol predan\u00fd na prvej.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Aby som pochopil, v ktor\u00fdch oblastiach a pre ak\u00e9 skupiny bytov sa viac obchoduje, umiestnil som v\u0161etky adresy na mape:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nOdkaz na kompletn\u00fa mapu<\/a><\/noindex>.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Na mape s\u00fa ozna\u010den\u00e9 adresy bytov, ktor\u00e9 boli alebo bud\u00fa predan\u00e9, v n\u00e1zve \u0161t\u00edtka je uveden\u00e1 cena predaja (nie ceny na aukcii), rok predaja a \u010d\u00edslo, z ktor\u00e9ho kola bol byt predan\u00fd. \u010c\u00edslo v \u0161t\u00edtku ukazuje po\u010det izieb v byte. V popise \u0161t\u00edtka sa nach\u00e1dzaj\u00fa inform\u00e1cie o predo\u0161l\u00fdch a bud\u00facich aukci\u00e1ch, ako aj adresa (adresy bez medzier a ve\u013ek\u00fdch p\u00edsmen kv\u00f4li rozdielom v p\u00edsan\u00ed v p\u00f4vodn\u00fdch \u00fadajoch) a \u010fal\u0161ie inform\u00e1cie o byte.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

V\u010faka mape m\u00f4\u017eete vidie\u0165, ako sa cena v oblasti menila v priebehu \u010dasu, do ak\u00e9 miery sa obchoduje s podobn\u00fdmi nehnute\u013enos\u0165ami. Zauj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee nov\u00e9 fondy, t.j. byty v nov\u00fdch domoch, sa aj v oblastiach s nepriaznivou dopravnou dostupnos\u0165ou zvy\u010dajne pred\u00e1vaj\u00fa s vyjedn\u00e1van\u00edm, zatia\u013e \u010do byty star\u00e9ho fondu sa daj\u00fa celkom dobre k\u00fapi\u0165 za \u0161tartovaciu cenu alebo s mal\u00fdm vyjedn\u00e1van\u00edm. Pod\u013ea mapy si m\u00f4\u017eete urobi\u0165 pribli\u017en\u00fa progn\u00f3zu oh\u013eadom obchodov, pri\u010dom zoh\u013eadn\u00edte u\u017e predan\u00e9 byty nach\u00e1dzaj\u00face sa v okol\u00ed bytu vystaven\u00e9ho na aukciu.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Aj ke\u010f nie je \u00faplne spr\u00e1vne porovn\u00e1va\u0165 byty star\u00e9ho a nov\u00e9ho fondu, a auk\u010dn\u00e9 byty s\u00fa silne posunut\u00e9 smerom k star\u00e9mu fondu z d\u00f4vodu \u0161pecifik\u00e1cie msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, no predsa sa pozrime na niektor\u00e9 histogramy s t\u00fdmito predpokladmi.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram priemern\u00fdch cien bytov pod\u013ea rokov a po\u010dtu izieb:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det bytov: 397<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Priemern\u00e9 ceny nie je celkom spr\u00e1vne posudzova\u0165 nez\u00e1visle od oblasti, preto sa pozrime na byty v ka\u017edej oblasti osobitne (zoh\u013eadnen\u00e9 iba oblasti v r\u00e1mci M\u041aAD).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram priemern\u00fdch cien jednopokojov\u00fdch bytov, rozdelen\u00fdch pod\u013ea oblast\u00ed a rokov:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det jednopokojov\u00fdch bytov: 218<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram priemern\u00fdch cien dvojpokojov\u00fdch bytov, rozdelen\u00fdch pod\u013ea oblast\u00ed a rokov:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det dvojizbov\u00fdch bytov: 159<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u017dia\u013e, trojizbov\u00fdch bytov je pr\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo, a preto nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 vytvori\u0165 \u017eiadnu dostato\u010dne presn\u00fa histogram.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Anal\u00fdza
\nCelkov\u00fd po\u010det trojizbov\u00fdch bytov: 20<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Vzh\u013eadom na predpoklady uveden\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161ie (op\u00e4\u0165, k d\u00e1tumu p\u00edsania \u010dl\u00e1nku v roku 2020 sa uskuto\u010dnila iba jedna aukcia) m\u00f4\u017eeme predsa len robi\u0165 ur\u010dit\u00e9 z\u00e1very. Pri poh\u013eade na rozdelenie cien pod\u013ea oblast\u00ed si m\u00f4\u017eeme v\u0161imn\u00fa\u0165, \u017ee celkovo cena rastie, av\u0161ak u\u017e teraz sa ukazuje obrat, ke\u010f\u017ee ceny v niektor\u00fdch oblastiach za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa obraca\u0165 a v in\u00fdch rast sa spoma\u013euje (\u010do v podstate nazna\u010duje dosiahnutie maxim\u00e1lnych cien a pravdepodobne ich n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 zn\u00ed\u017eenie).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Zdrojov\u00fd k\u00f3d na github.com<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Zdroj: habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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\u017ee","canonical_url":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/sk\/blog\/news\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"","webmasterTools":{"miscellaneous":""},"schema":null,"og:locale":"sk_SK","og:site_name":"ProHoster | \u041a\u0443\u043f\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0435\u0436\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0445\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0433 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0441\u0430\u0439\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0441 \u0437\u0430\u0449\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0439 \u043e\u0442 DDoS, VPS VDS \u0441\u0435\u0440\u0432\u0435\u0440\u044b","og:type":"article","og:title":"\ud83e\udd47\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043a\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0432\u0438\u0436\u0438\u043c\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0435 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0441 msgr.ru | ProHoster","og:description":"\u041d\u0435\u0434\u0430\u0432\u043d\u043e \u0441\u0442\u043e\u043b\u043a\u043d\u0443\u043b\u0441\u044f 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