{"id":52568,"date":"2019-11-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-11-10T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:00:20","slug":"gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/sl\/blog\/news\/gartner-hype-cycle-2019-razbor-polyotov","title":{"rendered":"Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: analiza letov","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

Razdelili smo AI tehnologije iz 2019. leta in brez sramu primerjali z napovedmi iz leta 2017.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Gartner<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Najprej, kaj je Gartner Hype Cycle? To je nekak\u0161en cikel zrelosti tehnologije, oziroma prehod od faze navdu\u0161enja do njene produktivne uporabe. Zdaj bo grafikon s prevodom, da bo vse bolj jasno. vse<\/a><\/noindex>. In spodaj so razlage.
\n\"Gartner<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Prva faza. \u0336Je\u0336z\u0336. Zagon.<\/strong> Tehnologija se pojavi, sprva jo obravnavajo izobra\u017eeni navdu\u0161enci, nato pa tudi fanati\u010dna javnost; postopoma se pove\u010duje navdu\u0161enje.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Druga faza. \u0336Tr\u0336g\u0336. Vrh pretiranih pri\u010dakovanj.<\/strong> Nekje v tem trenutku o tehnologiji \u017ee vsi govorijo, posku\u0161ajo jo implementirati, najbolj iznajdljivi pa jo posku\u0161ajo prodati za visoko ceno.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Tretja faza. \u0336Dep\u0336r\u0336e\u0336s\u0336i\u0336j\u0336a\u0336. Upad zanimanja.<\/strong> Tehnologija se aktivno uvaja in pogosto propada zaradi pomanjkljivosti in omejitev. \"To je vse nonsense!\" - sli\u0161imo tu in tam. Navdu\u0161enje hitro upada (cena, pogosto, tudi).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u010cetrta faza. \u0336O\u0336d\u0336t\u0336r\u0336i\u0336c\u0336a\u0336n\u0336je\u0336. Delo na napakah.<\/strong> Tehnologija se izbolj\u0161uje, te\u017eave se re\u0161ujejo. Postopoma podjetja pazljivo preizku\u0161ajo uvajanje tehnologije in, hurra, vse se odli\u010dno izide.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Peta faza. \u0336Pr\u0336i\u0336n\u0336o\u0336s\u0336. Produktivno delo.<\/strong> Tehnologija si pridobi svoje zaslu\u017eeno mesto na trgu in mirno deluje, se razvija in je priljubljena.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaj je v trendu?<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

Vrnjamo se k Hype Cycle 2019. Podjetje Gartner je izdalo<\/a><\/noindex> septembra poro\u010da o tem, katere tehnologije umetne inteligence so v kateri fazi in kdaj bodo za\u010dele delovati produktivno. Grafikon spodaj, komentarji pod grafikon.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Gartner<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Z veliko prednostjo in \u017ee v fazi \"Produktivno delo\" sta tehnologiji \"Prepoznavanje govora\" in \"Pospe\u0161evanje procesov z uporabo GPU\". To pomeni, da jih je treba nemudoma uporabiti, saj \u017ee zagotavljajo konkuren\u010dno prednost svojim lastnikom.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Samodejno u\u010denje strojev (AutoML) in klepetalni roboti so trenutno na vrhuncu navdu\u0161enja. Torej, vsi govorijo o njih, mnogi jih uvajajo, a pripeljati tehnologije do \u017eelene ravni bo trajalo od 2 do 5 let.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Znane naprave so trenutno prav tako ve\u010d kot v trendu. Tehnologija \"avtonomna vozila\" skoraj dosega dno. V tem primeru je to dobro, saj je pred nami produktivno delo. Vendar pa po oceni Gartnerja za razvoj in prilagoditev ne bo manj kot 10 let.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kje so danes nekdaj hype droni in virtualna resni\u010dnost? Vse je na svojem mestu \u2013 Gartner je drone uvrstil v podro\u010dje Edge AI (kategorije, ki meji na umetno inteligenco), virtualna resni\u010dnost pa je postala del Augmented intelligence (raz\u0161irjenega intelekta). Obe temi sta, mimogrede, trenutno v fazi uvajanja in imata pozitivno napoved: 2-5 let do produktivne uporabe na trgu.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Perspektive<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

Med obetavnimi funkcijami: Programska oprema za avtomatizacijo procesov (Robotic process automation software) \u2013 zveni stra\u0161ljivo, toda dejansko pomeni, da robot nadome\u0161\u010da rutinska dela. No\u010dna mora za nizkokvalificirano osebje; kljub temu raziskava<\/a><\/noindex> Harvard Business Review trdi: odpustov ne bo, a produktivnost dela se bo pove\u010dala. Obstajajo osnovi<\/a><\/noindex> verjeti. Tehnologija bo v dveh letih dosegla vrhunec nepriljubljenosti in splo\u0161nega zani\u010devanja, nato pa se bo raz\u0161irila povsod.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Med tehnologijami, o katerih bodo mno\u017ei\u010dno govorili evangelisti in info\u0161und, me posebej zanima \u201enevro-morfna oprema\u201c. To so elektri\u010dne naprave (\u010dipi), ki posnemajo<\/a><\/noindex> naravne biolo\u0161ke strukture na\u0161ega \u017eiv\u010dnega sistema z vidika energetske u\u010dinkovitosti. \u010ce to zelo poenostavim, gre za superproduktivnost zahvaljujo\u010d delitvi dela (asinkronemu posodabljanju nevronov). Tak\u0161ni velikani kot IBM in Intel \u017ee aktivno ustvarjajo nevro-morfne \u010dipe. A vojska Johna Connora ima \u010das za pripravo na dan viken; Gartner je tehnologi dodelil kar 10 let do zrelosti. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

O digitalni etiki (Digital Ethics) se veliko govori, a implementirati jo ne hitijo. Ta smer je bila dodeljena v posebno kategorijo podro\u010dij AI: to pomeni, da bi bilo dobro dolo\u010diti nekaj eti\u010dnih na\u010del, norm in standardov zbiranja podatkov, uvajanja AI v \u017eivljenje, na splo\u0161no, da bi bilo tako kot pri ljudi<\/a><\/noindex>. Kon\u010dno lahko pokukamo k Azimovu. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

2017 vs 2019<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

Zanimivo je, da je bilo leta 2017 vse druga\u010de<\/a><\/noindex>, celo posebna hype cikla za AI ni bila predvidena: tehnologije AI so \u0161le v lokomotivu svetovnih tehnologij (Emerging Technologies) skupaj z blockchainom in dodatno resni\u010dnostjo. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Strojno u\u010denje in globoko u\u010denje sta bila leta 2017 na hype olimpijadi, leta 2019 pa sta nadaljevala svojo pot proti upadu, torej produktivi delu<\/a><\/noindex>. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Mimogrede, droni so leta prehajali z vrhunca na padec, v letu 2019 pa so se vrnili nazaj proti vrhuncu. Tudi to se zgodi. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Leta 2019 je v cikel vstopilo 8 novih tehnologij. Med njimi so storitve oblaka za umetno inteligenco (Cloud Services), tr\u017ene platforme za umetno inteligenco (Marketplaces) in kvantno ra\u010dunalni\u0161tvo z umetno inteligenco (Quantum Computing). Na splo\u0161no dobro poznana (v o\u017ejih krogih) orodja, ki se za\u010dnejo usmerjati proti AI tirnicam.<\/p>\n

Izvor: habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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