{"id":56281,"date":"2020-02-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-08T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/blog_prohoster\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru"},"modified":"2020-02-18T14:04:32","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T11:04:32","slug":"analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/sl\/blog\/news\/analiz-rynka-nedvizhimosti-na-osnove-dannyh-s-msgr-ru","title":{"rendered":"Analiza tr\u017ei\u0161ta nekretnina na osnovu podataka sa msgr.ru","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"

Nedavno sem se soo\u010dil s problemom izbire stanovanja in seveda sem najprej \u017eelel izvedeti, kaj se dogaja na trgu nepremi\u010dnin in, kot to \u017ee ponavadi gre, polovica strokovnjakov youtube.com<\/a><\/noindex> pravi, da se bodo nepremi\u010dnine dvigovale, drugi pa trdijo, da se bo cena zni\u017eala. Na koncu sem se odlo\u010dil, da bom razjasnil sam in to je to, kar sem ugotovil.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\n© Designed by upklyak \/ Freepik<\/a><\/noindex><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Da bi razumel, kako so se cene v zadnjem \u010dasu spreminjale, sem moral najti dejanske prodajne cene nepremi\u010dnin. Cene s ciljanih spletnih strani, kot so cian.ru<\/a><\/noindex> ili avito.ru<\/a><\/noindex> niso primerne, saj tam obi\u010dajno nepremi\u010dnine prodajajo s popustom in resni\u010dno prodajno ceno ni mogo\u010de ugotoviti. Tu sem opazil spletno stran za prodajo nepremi\u010dnin, kjer sem lahko videl dejansko ceno, po kateri je bilo stanovanje kupljeno. Govorim seveda o spletni strani msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, o kateri si lahko preberete ve\u010d v ovom<\/a><\/noindex> pregledu. Na kratko lahko re\u010dem, da ta organizacija izvaja prodajo stanovanj po pogodbi o izpolnjeni zakupnini na dra\u017ebah.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Da bi izvedel, kak\u0161ne so cene v razli\u010dnih okro\u017ejih Moskve, in bi bilo zanimivo pogledati, katera stanovanja se bolj pogosto dra\u017eijo, v katerih okro\u017ejih kupujejo bli\u017eje za\u010detni ceni, in v katerih se cena lahko mo\u010dno spremeni. Zato sem najprej pridobil podatke s spletne strani msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, ti podatki so razdeljeni na dva tipa: uspe\u0161ne in neuspe\u0161ne dra\u017ebe, pri \u010demer so stanovanja, ki niso bila prodana, lahko prisotna na dveh mestih hkrati.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pridobljene podatke sem zdru\u017eil v tabelo za bolj\u0161o preglednost:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nV tabeli so predstavljeni podatki za zadnjih 10 dra\u017eb.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u0412 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0432\u044b\u0448\u0435 \u0442\u0430\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0446\u0435 \u0432 \u043a\u043e\u043b\u043e\u043d\u043a\u0435 ‘A’ \u0443\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u0438\u043d\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f \u043e\u0431 \u0430\u0443\u043a\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0445 (\u0430\u0434\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0430 \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u0435\u043b\u043e\u0432 \u0438 \u0437\u0430\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0431\u0443\u043a\u0432 \u0438\u0437-\u0437\u0430 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043d\u0438\u0446 \u043d\u0430\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f \u0432 \u0438\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445), \u0432 \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043a\u0435 \u0443\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043d\u044b \u0434\u0430\u0442\u044b \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0445 \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0448\u0435\u0434\u0449\u0438\u0445 \u0430\u0443\u043a\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043e\u0432. \u041f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0440\u044b \u0437\u0430\u043f\u043e\u043b\u043d\u044f\u044e\u0441\u044f ‘xxx’ \u043f\u043e \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043a\u0435 (\u044d\u0442\u043e \u0441\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0430\u043d\u043e \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431\u044b \u043f\u043e\u043d\u044f\u0442\u044c \u043a\u0430\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0440\u044b \u043c\u043e\u0433\u0443\u0442 \u0431\u044b\u0442\u044c \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u043d\u044b \u0432 \u0435\u0449\u0451 \u043d\u0435 \u0430\u043d\u043e\u043d\u0441\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0445 \u0430\u0443\u043a\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0445), \u0432 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u0445\u043d\u0435\u0439 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043a\u0435 \u044f\u0447\u0435\u0439\u043a\u0438 \u0443\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u044f \u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430, \u0430 \u0432 \u043d\u0438\u0436\u043d\u0435\u0439 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0436\u0438, \u0432 \u044f\u0447\u0435\u0439\u043a\u0430\u0445 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0438\u0445 \u0430\u0443\u043a\u0446\u0438\u043e\u043d\u043e\u0432 \u0441\u0441\u044b\u043b\u043a\u0430 \u0441 \u043e\u043f\u0438\u0441\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u043a\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0440\u044b.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Tudi v tej tabeli lahko vidite nekatere zanimive vzorce, na primer, da \u010de stanovanje ne prodajo na dveh dra\u017ebah, se bo na tretji dra\u017ebi cena zni\u017eala in tako vsakih dveh dra\u017ebah, \u010deprav, \u010de pogledate na ve\u010djem vzorcu, obstajajo izjeme in stanovanje lahko postane cenej\u0161e \u017ee na naslednji dra\u017ebi, \u010de ni bilo prodano na prvi.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Da bi razumeli, v katerih obmo\u010djih in za katere skupine stanovanj se najve\u010d trguje, sem vse naslove prikazal na zemljevidu:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nPovezava na celoten zemljevid<\/a><\/noindex>.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Na zemljevidu so ozna\u010deni naslovi stanovanj, ki so bila ali bodo prodana, v naslovu oznake pa je navedena prodajna cena (ne cena dra\u017ebe), leto prodaje in \u0161tevilo, iz katerega poskusa je bilo stanovanje prodano. \u0160tevilka v oznaki prikazuje \u0161tevilo sob v stanovanju. V opisu oznake so informacije o preteklih in prihodnjih dra\u017ebah ter naslov (naslovi brez presledkov in velikih \u010drkov zaradi razlik v zapisu v izvornih podatkih) in druge informacije o stanovanju.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Zemljevid omogo\u010da vpogled v to, kako se je cena v obmo\u010dju spreminjala skozi \u010das, koliko se trgovalo za podobne mo\u017enosti. Iz zanimivih dejstev lahko izpostavimo, da nova stavbna izgradnja, tj. stanovanja v novih hi\u0161ah, tudi v obmo\u010djih z slabo prometno dostopnostjo, se praviloma prodajajo s trgom, medtem ko je mogo\u010de stanovanja stare gradnje kupiti po za\u010detni ceni ali z majhnim trgom. Na zemljevidu lahko naredimo pribli\u017eno napoved trgov, ob upo\u0161tevanju \u017ee prodanih stanovanj, ki se nahajajo okoli stanovanja, ki je na dra\u017ebi.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u010ceprav ni povsem pravilno primerjati stanovanja stare in nove gradnje, pa se dra\u017ebena stanovanja mo\u010dno nagibajo k stari gradnji zaradi specifi\u010dnosti msgr.ru<\/a><\/noindex>, a vseeno poglejmo nekatere histogramo s temi predpostavkami.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram povpre\u010dnih cen stanovanj po letih in \u0161tevilu sob:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nSkupno \u0161tevilo stanovanj: 397<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Povpre\u010dne cene ni povsem pravilno obravnavati lo\u010deno od obmo\u010dja, zato bomo obravnavali stanovanja v vsaki \u010detrti posebej (obravnavani so bili samo okviri znotraj MKAD).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram povpre\u010dnih cen enosobnih stanovanj, razdeljenih po \u010detrtih in letih:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nSkupno \u0161tevilo enosobnih stanovanj: 218<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Histogram povpre\u010dnih cen dvosobnih stanovanj, razdeljenih po \u010detrtih in letih:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nSkupno \u0161tevilo dvosobnih stanovanj: 159<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u017dal je trosobnih stanovanj preve\u010d malo, zaradi \u010desar ni mogo\u010de ustvariti nobene vsaj pribli\u017eno korektne histogram.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\"Analiza
\nSkupno \u0161tevilo trosobnih stanovanj: 20<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Ob upo\u0161tevanju zgoraj navedenih predpostavk (ponovno, ob \u010dasu pisanja \u010dlanka je bil le en razpis), lahko kljub temu potegnemo dolo\u010dene zaklju\u010dke. \u010ce si ogledamo razporeditev cen po obmo\u010djih, lahko opazimo, da se cena na splo\u0161no dviga, vendar se \u017ee zdaj ka\u017ee obraten trend, saj se v nekaterih obmo\u010djih cene za\u010dnejo obra\u010dati, v drugih pa upo\u010dasnjujejo rast, kar je v bistvu znak, da so dosegle maksimalne cene in da se bo verjetno v prihodnje pri\u010delo njihovo zni\u017eevanje.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Izvorna koda na github.com<\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n

Izvor: habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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