Nyamavhuvhu 2020 muBelarus kubva padanho rekuona

Kwakabva REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

Hei Habr.

2020 iri kuumba kuti iite chiitiko. A colour revolution scenario iri kutumbuka muBelarus. Ini ndinokurudzira kubvisa kubva mumanzwiro uye kuyedza kutarisa iyo iripo data pakuchinja kwemavara kubva padanho rekuona. Ngatitarisei zvinogona kubudirira zvinhu, pamwe nemigumisiro yehupfumi yekuchinja kwakadaro.

Pamwe pachava nekukakavadzana kwakawanda.

Kana paine anofarira, ndapota ona katsi.

Cherechedza Vicki: Izwi rekuti "color revolution" harina tsananguro chaiyo; vaongorori vanotsanangura zvikonzero, zvinangwa uye nzira dzekuita kwavo nenzira dzakasiyana. Dzimwe nguva izwi iri rinodudzirwa seshanduko yehutongi hwekutonga, hunoitwa kunyanya kushandisa nzira dzezvematongerwo enyika dzisiri dzemhirizhonga (kazhinji kuratidzira kwemigwagwa).

Icho chokwadi chekuti shanduko yemavara iri kuitika muBelarus inotorwa kubva mumashoko aA.G. Lukashenko.

Dataset

Ese 33 color revolutions dzakatorwa (izwi ndiro zvariri. Munyori anoenderera mberi nekushandisa izwi iri, kusanganisira rakakundikana color putsches uye coups), maererano nekwakabva kwakashanda se. Wikipedia, nokuda kwokushayiwa chinhu chiri nani.

Mapato anotevera akatorwa:

• nyika [nyika]
• Tanga [kutanga_date] uye kuguma [kupera_date]. Kutanga kwekuratidzira pachavo kwakatorwa sehwaro, pasina kufunga nezvekutanga.
• Chikonzero [Chikonzero] - chikamu chinotarisa, zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu: kusagutsikana nemitemo iripo [zvematongerwo enyika], zvabuda musarudzo [sarudzo], zvehupfumi [economics], uori [uori]
• Kubudirira kwechimurenga [budiriro] - kana shanduko yakabudirira. Binary value
• Nhamba yevaratidziri. Kufungidzira kwenhamba yevatori vechikamu kunogona kusiyana zvikuru. Panyaya iyi, kukosha kwepamusoro kwakatorwa kubva padiki (kazhinji fungidziro yepamutemo)[vatori vechikamu_max_min], fungidziro yepamusoro-soro inobvira (kazhinji fungidziro yezvinobudisa nhau kana varatidzirivatori vechikamu_max_max] uye zvinoreva geometric yavo yakatorwa [av_participants]. Izvi ndizvo zvakazorangarirwazve
• Kuwanda kwevanhu munyika mugore rakatanga kuratidzira [chizvarwa]
• Zuva rekusarudzwa kwemutungamiri mutsva wenyika [cur_leader_elected]. Ini ndakamboshandisa zuva rekugadzwa, asi zvakazoitika kuti kuratidzira kwakawanda kwakaitika kunyangwe mumwe mutungamiri asati atora chigaro.
• Zuva rekuzvarwa kwemutungamiriri [cur_elected_dob]
• Press freedom index mugore rakatanga kuratidzira [press_freedom_index (PFI)]. Iyo yakakwirira, yakanyanya kusasununguka
• Nzvimbo yenyika mune index of unfreedom of the press mugore rakatanga kuratidzira [press_freedom_index_pos (PFI_pos)]

Kugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvitsva / zvikamu.

Nguva yekuratidzira mumazuva iri nyore kuverenga [chinguva], nguva musimba mumakore [mazuva_kubva_kutanga_sarudzo], zera rekutarisa panguva yekutanga kufamba [makore_kubvira_dob], pamwe nechikamu chevaratidziri kubva kuvagari venyika [protest_ratio].

Handeyi

Chinyorwa chinopa mamwe manhamba ekuverenga. Iko hakuna data rakawanda, asi kune yakawanda. Munyori anokumbira kunzwisisa kwako uye ruregerero pachine nguva.

Iwo magirafu anongoratidza matatu chete mapoka ezvikonzero zvekuratidzira (zvematongerwo enyika, sarudzo, hupfumi) seanonyanya kufadza.

Bhokisi chirongwa

Chiratidzo chebhokisi, kana "bhokisi rine ndebvu," rinogona kuenzanisirwa zvakajeka nemufananidzo uyu:

Nguva yekuratidzira

Chinhu chekutanga icho munyori akasarudza kudzidza yaive nguva yekuratidzira kwakaitika.

Kubva pane histogram, nguva huru yekuratidzira inotora kusvika kumazuva mazana maviri. Chinofadza ndechekuti kuratidzira kwakabudirira uye kusina kubudirira kwakatora nguva yakareba sei, zvichienderana nechikonzero chekuitika kwavo:

Kugoverwa kwemapoka ezvematongerwo enyika nesarudzo kunosiyana zvakanyanya. Nekuda kwekuti kuratidzira muBelarus kunokonzerwa nemhedzisiro yesarudzo, ngatitarisei patafura iyi uye girafu iyi:

Kubva pane data iripo, tinogona kugumisa kuti "nguva yegoridhe" yekuratidzira kwakabudirira ingangoita 6-8 mavhiki. Nyanzvi yezvematongerwo enyika ingangocherechedza kuti yakaderera yeNhema yepakati imhaka yekuti kumwe kuratidzira kwakakurumidza kudzipwa vachiri vacheche. Kana izvi zvaisagona kuitwa, zano rakanakisisa raiva rokumirira uye kunonotsa kuratidzira. Munyori akaongorora zvakasiyana kuti hapana anoronga sarudzo pakutanga kwezhizha (Chikumi, Chikunguru).

Mamiriro ezvinhu muBelarus panguva yekubudiswa (31.08.2020/21/3) - XNUMX mazuva aka XNUMX mavhiki apfuura kubva kutanga kwekuratidzira.

Nguva musimba

Sezvauri kuona kubva kubhokisi repamusoro, iyo yakareba iwe uri musimba, zvakanyanya kuoma kuichengeta semhedzisiro yekuchinja kwemavara. Ngatitarisei zvakanyanya mamiriro akaita sarudzo:

Kubva pagirafu iwe unogona kuona kuti moyo murefu wevanhu ungangoita 2 mazwi uye iwo maquartiles haapindirane.

Mamiriro ezvinhu muBelarus akasiyana nenzira yawo. Hakusati kwambove nekushanduka kwemavara munyika umo mutongi anga achitonga kwemakore makumi maviri nematanhatu uye aive achipinda mutemu yake yechitanhatu. Kune rimwe divi, zviri nyore kuti munyori afungidzire mhedzisiro yealgorithm yemuti sarudzo iyo mubvunzo uyu usingazokonzerese matambudziko.

Zera remubati wesimba

Iyi girafu inoratidza kuti kugoverwa kwakasiyana sei (hapana kushamisika neicho uye yakawanda yedata). Ngatitarisei zvakanyanya pachati yesarudzo:

Sezviri mumuenzaniso uri pamusoro, iwo maquartiles emabhokisi ebhokisi haapesane. Izvi zvinogona kunge zvichikonzerwa nekuti vezvematongerwo enyika vechidiki uye vane simba vari pasi pemakore makumi mashanu nemashanu vane simba rakawanda rekuramba kuratidzira kusiri kwevachena. Kana kuti nenguva yakareba sei vakagamuchira simba uye nekuzeza kwavanoita kurisiya. Ndiani anoziva?

Iye zvino Mutungamiriri weBelarus akatendeuka makumi matanhatu nematanhatu nezuro (kana nhasi?). Muchiitiko ichi, nhamba dzacho hadzisi mukufarira kwake.

Index ye (mu) rusununguko rwenhau

Maererano nevanhu vakachenjera zvikuru kupfuura munyori, kushayikwa kwerusununguko rwemashoko kunogona kuva chiratidzo chehudzvinyiriri. The Press Freedom Index inoverengerwa neReporters Without Borders. Iyo yakakwirira iyo index, iyo yakaipisisa mamiriro ezvinhu nehurukuro yekusununguka, maererano nesangano iri.

Kubva pamagirafu aya, kuvapo kwekusununguka kwepepanhau kune kukanganisa kwakashata pakuchengetedza simba. Izvi zvinogona kunzwisiswa, sezvo basa remapepanhau neterevhizheni, kunyangwe richipera simba, richiri kuita basa rakakosha. Funga nezvemamiriro esarudzo:

Sezvakaitika kare, quartiles haina kupindirana. Kuuya kweakasiyana siyana masocial network kwakachinja zvakanyanya mufananidzo uye pesvedzero yezviwanikwa zvenhau; mune izvi, zvinoita sekunge zvinogoneka, asi zvakaoma, kuti munyori aise 1986 muPhilippines uye 2020 muBelarus pachikamu.

MuBelarus, iyo press freedom index ndeye 49.25 ye2020. Iyi ndiyo inonyanya kukosha yemiganhu yemasampuli ese anoratidzwa muchinyorwa chino. Uye zviri muminda yeruzivo umo hondo huru dzechimurenga chazvino dziri kuitika. Vamwe vashandi vemakambani epaterevhizheni nemaredhiyo vari kuramwa mabasa. Komsomolskaya Pravda inonyora nezve kuratidzira muBelarus, asi haigone kuburitswa nekuda kwekuparara kwemichina, nezvimwe. Nyanzvi dzezvematongerwo enyika dzeRussia dzinoenda kuBelarus dzichikokwa nemutungamiri wenyika, uye vanopikisa vanoshingaira kushandisa Western social technologies. Zvikero zvingangopesana kanopfuura kamwe chete.

Mugove wevaratidziri

Zvichida imwe yeakanyanya kuomesesa paramita kuverenga. Zvinoita sokuti pamakonzati e<em>rock kana kuti zvimwe zviitiko zvakawanda, zvinobudisa nhau nezviremera zvinofungidzira nhamba yevanopinda inenge yakafanana.
Asi kana ruzivo rwekuratidzira munyika dzakasiyana panoonekwa, pfungwa inogadzirwa kuti vaive munzvimbo dzakasiyana. Kana kuti vakatarisa nemabhainokura kubva kumativi akasiyana. Imwe nzira kana imwe, iyo data yakaverengerwa zvakafanana kune wese munhu, saka zvingangoita kuti inofananidzwa.

Iwo magirafu anoratidza kuti yakakura chikamu chevaratidziri, zvakanyanya kuoma kuchengetedza simba. Zvinotarisirwa. Asi, iwo manhamba pachawo anofarira, kusanganisira mamiriro ane chekuita nesarudzo:

Tichitarisa nebhokisi, iyo yakakosha misa ndeye 0.5%. Paingova nenyaya imwe chete yakasarudzika, yaionekwa seyekunze, uko vangangoita 1.4% vakapotsa chinangwa chavo (Armenia, 2008).

MuBelarus, panguva ino, maererano nemaitiro akaverengwa, 1.33% vari kutora chikamu mukuratidzira. Chiverengero ichi hachinawo kutamba mumaoko ehurumende iripo.

Migumisiro yehupfumi

Izvo zvichave pazasi hazvigone kunzi hupfumi. Munyori haana kuwana parameter iri nani yekuenzanisa, kuti ungadzidza sei kusiyana kwehuwandu hwemari yenyika maererano neNational Bank inopesana nedhora reUnited States. Kupedzisa mufananidzo, nguva yegore yakatorwa kubva pakutanga kwekuratidzira uye gore mushure mekupera. Nguva yekuratidzira inoratidzirwa mubhuruu pamachati.

Mari yenyika yave kusimba zvichienzaniswa nedhora

Mamiriro ezvinhu akafanana akaonekwa kakawanda munyika dzaichimbova Soviet Union. Zvinhu zvese zvakaenzana, mihoro muAmerican rubles yakazokura.

Mari yenyika haina kugadzikana kana ichienzaniswa nedhora

Hunhu hwakagadzikana hwemari yenyika hwakacherechedzwawo mune mamwe mavara ezviratidziro zvekuchinja kwenyika dzeyaimbova Soviet Union. Muzviitiko izvi, dhora rekuchinja mari harina kuchinja zvakanyanya.

Mari yenyika yakadonha ichipikisana nedhora

Kwapera gore pashure pokunge kumwe kuratidzira kwapera, munhu aigona kuona mamiriro ezvinhu anosiririsa zvikuru pamusoro pemari yenyika. Zvichida zvikamu zviviri zvekupedzisira zvedambudziko rehupfumi ra2008 zvakabatsira. Mamiriro ezvinhu neAlgeria achangoburwa - dinar yemuno yakarohwa neCOVID-19.

Mamiriro azvino muBelarus

Mamiriro ezvinhu muBelarus akaoma - pakutanga panguva yekuratidzira, mukati chete Russia muna 2012, mwero wakaderera zvakanyanya neinopfuura 10%. Nekudaro, izvi hazvina kuitika kubva pamazuva ekutanga ekuratidzira uye mukati mechikamu chechipiri chedambudziko remari repasi rose. Munyori haana ruzivo rwakakosha rwehupfumi uye haadi kutsausa vanhu pamusoro pezvikonzero nemigumisiro yemamiriro ezvinhu aripo.

Dry residu

Kunyangwe iyo data idiki, inonyatso kuenderana, ari mashoko akanaka. Zvimwe zvinocherechedzwa uye mapatani zviri nyore kududzira, nepo zvimwe zvakaoma zvishoma.

Mamiriro ezvinhu muBelarus anochinja zuva rega rega, uye zvichaitika zvinotevera zvakajeka kune vashomanana chete.

Chekupedzisira, ini ndinokupa t-SNE girafu rekuchinja kwemavara. Mazuva ese, maparamita asiri enhamba, uye mhedzisiro yekuchinja zvakabviswa kubva mudhatabheti.

Kubudirira kupinduka kunoratidzwa negirini, isina kubudirira mutsvuku. Venezuela inoratidzwa nebhuruu, uye mamiriro ezvinhu muBelarus ari mu grey. Doti dema rinoratidza nzvimbo iyo Belarus ichave mumavhiki maviri, ine imwe data yakagadziriswa.

Izvi zvinonhuhwirira zvishoma sekubatanidza uye iwe unogona kuedza kuzvironga uchishandisa nzvimbo dzekofi. Muchiitiko ichi, kana iwe ukamaka nzvimbo yemavara matsvuku se 'sumbu' remapunduko akakundikana, unogona kuona kuti kana iri Venezuela doti rakatsvuka kupfuura girinhi, izvo zvinosimbiswa nemaonero epasirese emasayendisiti ezvematongerwo enyika. . Belarus, inomiririrwa negrey (ikozvino) uye dema (mumavhiki maviri), iri kuenda kumusasa wehama dzayo dzakasvibira.

Iwe unogona kubhadhara kune chokwadi chokuti pedyo neBelarus kune boka re 5 mavara akasvibirira. Iri pedyo nesu ichangobva kuitika mabhindauko mukati Armenia (2018) и Algeria (2019), pamwe chete Georgia (2003). Musumbu rimwe chete, kure zvishoma, kune chimurenga Philippines (1986) and in South Korea (2016).

Epilogue

Munyori akaedza kujekesa, nepazvinogona napo, kuratidza mamiriro acho nekuchinja kwemavara mumagirafu. Mamiriro ezvinhu muBelarus haataridzi mukufarira iye zvino autocrat, uye nguva chete ndiyo ichataura kana munyori akarurama mukufungidzira kwake.

Kana iwe uine mazano ezvikamu zvitsva kana misoro, nyorera kwatiri uye tichazviongorora pamwe chete.

"Kune marudzi matatu enhema: nhema, nhema dzakatukwa uye nhamba" (M. Twain)

Source: www.habr.com