Chikwapuro uye mutambo
Muchinyorwa chino ndinoda kukurukura nezve dambudziko reiyo bullwhip athari, iyo yakadzidzwa zvakanyanya mune logistics, uye zvakare kupa kune kutariswa kwevadzidzisi uye nyanzvi mumunda wekupa manejimendi shanduko nyowani yeinozivikanwa doro mutambo we kudzidzisa logistics. Mutambo wedoro mune sainzi yekugovera ketani manejimendi inyaya yakakomba mudzidzo yezvekuita uye maitiro. Iyo inotsanangura zvakanaka iyo isingadzoreki maitiro ekurongeka kusiyanisa uye kuzvimba kwezvinyorwa pamatanho akasiyana emaketani ekupa - iyo inonzi inonzi bullwhip athari. Sezvo ndambosangana nematambudziko mukutevedzera maitiro ebhuru, ndakafunga kugadzira yangu yakareruka vhezheni yemutambo wedoro (inozonzi mutambo mutsva). Kuziva kuti vangani nyanzvi dzezvekugadzirisa zvinhu dziripo pane ino saiti, uye zvakare tichifunga kuti zvakataurwa pamusoro pezvinyorwa zveHabr zvinowanzonakidza kupfuura zvinyorwa zvacho, ndinoda chaizvo kunzwa mhinduro kubva kuvaverengi nezve kukosha kweiyo bullwhip mhedzisiro uye mutambo wedoro.
Dambudziko rechokwadi kana rekunyepedzera?
Ndichatanga nekutsanangura mabudiro anoita bhuru. Kune matani ezvidzidzo zvesainzi mune logistics akaongorora iyo bullwhip mhedzisiro seyakakosha mhedzisiro yekugovera keteni shamwari kudyidzana kune zvakakomba manejimendi. Iyo bullwhip mhedzisiro ndeyekuwedzera kwekusiyana kwekurongeka pamatanho ekutanga ekugovera keteni (kumusoro kwerukova), inova imwe yedzidziso huru [1] [2] uye yekuedza mhedzisiro yemutambo wedoro [3]. Zvinoenderana neiyo bullwhip mhedzisiro, kuchinjika kwekuda kubva kune vatengi uye maodha kubva kune vatengesi pamatanho ekupedzisira ekutengesa cheni (pasi) anogara akaderera pane ayo anobva kune vatengesi nevanogadzira. Mhedzisiro yacho, hongu, inokuvadza uye inotungamira kune kazhinji shanduko mumaodha uye kugadzira. Masvomhu, iyo bullwhip effect inogona kutsanangurwa sereshiyo yekusiyana kana coefficients yekusiyana pakati pematanho (echelons) echeni yekugovera:
BullwhipEffect=VARupstream/VARdownstream
Kana (zvichienderana nemaitiro emuongorori):
BullwhipEffect=CVupstream/CVdownstream
Iyo bullwhip athari inosanganisirwa mune angangoita ese akakurumbira mabhuku ekunze ezvinyorwa pane zvekutengesa manejimendi. Pane kungoverengera kukuru kwetsvagiridzo yakapihwa kune iyi nyaya. Manongedzo ari kumagumo echinyorwa anoratidza mabasa ane mukurumbira pane izvi. Nechepfungwa, mhedzisiro yacho inonyanya kukonzerwa nekushaikwa kweruzivo nezve kudiwa, kutenga muhuwandu hukuru, kutya kwekushomeka kweramangwana uye kukwira kwemitengo [1]. Kusada kwevadyidzani vebhizinesi kugovera ruzivo rwakakwana nezve kudiwa kwevatengi, pamwe nenguva refu yekutumira, inowedzera iyo bullwhip athari [2]. Kune zvakare zvikonzero zvepfungwa zvemhedzisiro, yakasimbiswa mumamiriro erabhoritari [3]. Nezvikonzero zviri pachena, kune mashoma chaiwo emuenzaniso weiyo bullwhip mhedzisiro-vashoma vanhu vangada kugovera data nezve maodha avo uye maodha, uye kunyangwe mukati mese rekupa cheni. Pane, zvisinei, vashoma vakajeka vevatsvakurudzi vanotenda kuti bullwhip effect inowedzerwa.
Nechepfungwa, mhedzisiro yacho inogona kugadziriswa nekutsiva zvinhu uye kushandura vatengi pakati pevatengesi kana paine kushomeka [4]. Humwe humbowo hwesimba hunotsigira maonero ekuti bullwhip mhedzisiro inogona kushomeka mumaindasitiri mazhinji [5]. Vagadziri uye vatengesi vanowanzo shandisa kugadzirwa kutsetseka matekiniki uye mamwe manomano kuti vaone kuti kurongeka kwevatengi hakuna kunyanyisa. Ndinoshamisika: chii chiri mamiriro ezvinhu ane bullwhip effect muRussia uye munzvimbo yepost-Soviet mune zvakawanda? Vaverengi (kunyanya avo vanobatanidzwa mukuongorora kwezvinyorwa uye kufanotaura kwekuda) vaona simba rakasimba zvakadaro muhupenyu chaihwo? Pamwe, kutaura zvazviri, mubvunzo weiyo bullwhip effect uri kure-kure uye nguva yakawanda yevaongorori uye logistics vadzidzi vakatambisa pairi pasina ...
Ini pachangu ndakadzidza nezve bullwhip athari semudzidzi akapedza kudzidza uye ndichigadzira bepa pamutambo wedoro kumusangano. Gare gare ndakagadzira vhezheni yemagetsi yemutambo wedoro kuratidza maitiro ehando mukirasi. Ndiri kuzozvitsanangura zvakadzama pazasi.
Aya haasi matoyi ako ...
Spreadsheet modelling inoshandiswa zvakanyanya kuongorora matambudziko ebhizinesi repasirese. Maspreadsheets anoshanda zvakare mukudzidzisa mamaneja emangwana. Iyo bullwhip mhedzisiro, senzvimbo yakakurumbira mune zvekutengesa cheni manejimendi, ine kunyanya kureba tsika yekushandisa simulations mudzidzo, iyo mutambo wedoro muenzaniso wakanaka. MIT yakatanga kuunza mutambo wedoro wepakutanga mukutanga kwema1960, uye yakakurumidza kuve chishandiso chakakurumbira chekutsanangura dhizaini rekutengesa. Mutambo uyu muenzaniso wakasarudzika weSystem Dynamics modhi, inoshandiswa kwete chete nekuda kwezvinangwa zvekudzidzisa, asiwo pakuita sarudzo mumamiriro chaiwo ebhizinesi, pamwe nekutsvaga. Kuonekwa, kuberekazve, kuchengetedzwa, kudhura-kushanda uye kuwanikwa kwemitambo yakakomba yepakombiyuta inopa imwe nzira yekudzidzira-pa-basa, kupa vatungamiri nechigadziro chinobatsira mukufambisa kuita sarudzo pavanenge vachiita zvidzidzo munzvimbo yakachengeteka yekudzidza.
Mutambo uyu wakaita basa rakakosha mukuteedzera kugadzira hurongwa hwebhizinesi uye kufambisa sarudzo. Mutambo wedoro wemhando yepamusoro waive mutambo webhodhi uye waida gadziriro yakakosha usati watamba mutambo wacho mukirasi. Vadzidzisi vaifanira kutanga vagadzirisa nyaya dzakadai semirairo yakaoma, marongero, uye miganhu yevatori vechikamu. Shanduro dzakazotevera dzemutambo wedoro dzakaedza kuita kuti zvive nyore kushandisa nerubatsiro rwehunyanzvi hweruzivo. Pasinei nekuvandudzika kwakakosha neshanduro imwe neimwe inotevera, kuoma kwekugadzirisa nekugadzirisa, kunyanya mumagadzirirwo evashandisi vakawanda, mune dzakawanda zviitiko zvakadzivirira mutambo kuti urege kushandiswa zvakanyanya muzvidzidzo zvebhizimisi. Ongororo yeanowanikwa mavhezheni edoro simulation mitambo mukutengesa keteni manejimendi inoratidza kushomeka kwezvishandiso zviri nyore uye zvemahara zvevadzidzisi mumunda. Mumutambo mutsva unonzi Supply Chain Competition Game, ndaida kugadzirisa dambudziko iri kutanga uye zvakanyanya. Kubva pamaonero edzidziso, mutambo mutsva unogona kutsanangurwa sechishandiso chakavakirwa padambudziko (PBL) chinosanganisa kuenzanisa nekutamba-kutamba. Zvinogoneka zvakare kushandisa online vhezheni yemutambo mutsva muGoogle Sheets. Mamiriro ekugadzirisa maitiro mune yespredishiti yekugovera chain modhi inogadzirisa matambudziko maviri makuru mukushandiswa kwemitambo yakakomba: kuwanikwa uye nyore kushandisa. Mutambo uyu wave kuwanikwa kuti udhawunirwe kwemakore akati wandei ikozvino pane inotevera link paruzhinji .
Tsanangudzo yakadzama muChirungu inogona kutorwa .
Tsanangudzo pfupi yemutambo
Muchidimbu nezvematanho emutambo.
Mushandisi mumwechete ane basa rekumhanyisa chikamu chemutambo (achazonzi mudzidzisi) uye vashandisi vana vanotamba mutambo wacho (uchazonzi vatambi) pamwechete vanomiririra vatori vechikamu mumutambo wedoro. Iyo mitsva yemutambo modhi imwe kana maviri ekupa cheni, imwe neimwe iine matanho mana: Retailer ®, Wholesaler (W), Distributor (D) uye Factory (F). Chaiyo-yehupenyu cheni dzekugovera dzakanyanya kuoma, asi yemhando yedoro cheni mutambo wakanaka pakudzidza.
Mupunga. 1. Supply cheni chimiro
Chikamu chega chega chemitambo chinosanganisira nguva dzegumi nembiri.
Mupunga. 2. Fomu yesarudzo yemutambi wega wega
Masero ari mumafomu ane mafomati akakosha anoita kuti minda yekupinza ionekwe kana kuti isaonekwe nevatambi zvichienderana nenguva yazvino inoshanda uye kutevedzana kwesarudzo, saka vatambi vanogona kutarisa pane izvo zvakanyanya kukosha panguva iyoyo. Mudzidzisi anogona kudzora mafambiro ebasa remutambo kuburikidza nepaneru yekudzora, uko mikuru paramita uye zviratidzo zvekuita zvemutambi wega wega zvinoteedzerwa. Pakarepo akagadziridzwa magirafu papepa rega rega anobatsira iwe nekukurumidza kunzwisisa makiyi ekuita zviratidzo zvevatambi chero nguva. Vadzidzisi vanogona kusarudza kana kudiwa kwevatengi kuri deterministic (kusanganisira mutsara uye isiri mutsara) kana stochastic (inosanganisira yunifomu, yakajairika, lognormal, triangular, gamma, uye exponential).
Rimwe basa
Mutambo uri mufomu iri uchiri kure nekukwana - unoda kumwe kuvandudzwa kwemutambo wevazhinji wepamhepo nenzira yekubvisa kukosha kwekugara uchivandudza uye kuchengetedza mapepa anoenderana mushure mekuita kwemutambi wega wega. Ndinoda kuverenga uye kupindura mhinduro pamibvunzo inotevera:
a) kana iyo bullwhip athari ndeyechokwadi mukuita;
b) kuti mutambo wedoro ungabatsire sei pakudzidzisa mashandiro uye kuti ungavandudzwe sei.
nezvakanyorwa
[1] Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V. uye Whang, S., 1997. Kukanganiswa kwemashoko muketani yekugovera: The bullwhip effect. Management sainzi, 43(4), pp.546-558.
[2] Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K. naSimchi-Levi, D., 2000. Kuverengera mhedzisiro yehabhu muketani yakapfava yekugovera: Kukanganisa kwekufanotaura, nguva dzekutungamira, uye ruzivo. 46(3), map.436-443.
[3] Sterman, JD, 1989. Kutevedzera manejimendi maitiro: Mafungiro asiriwo emhinduro mune ine simba sarudzo yekuita kuyedza. Management sainzi, 35(3), pp.321-339.
[4] Sucky, E., 2009. The bullwhip effect mumaketani ekugovera - dambudziko rakanyanyisa? International Journal of Production Economics, 118(1), pp.311-322.
[5] Cachon, G.P., Randall, T. and Schmidt, G.M., 2007. Mukutsvaga chikwapuro. Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 9(4), pp.457-479.
Source: www.habr.com