Zvakakosha here kutenga motokari ye750 zviuru zveRubles, pasinei nokuti iwe unotyaira ka18 pamwedzi, kana kuti zvinodhura kushandisa tekisi? Kana iwe ukashanda pachigaro chekumashure kana kuteerera mimhanzi - izvi zvinoshandura sei kuongorora? Ndeipi nzira yakanakisa yekutenga imba - panguva ipi yakanakisa kupedzisa kuchengetedza padhipoziti uye kuita mubhadharo wepasi pachikwereti? Kana kunyange mubvunzo wakaderera: zvinobatsira here kuisa mari pa6% nemari yemwedzi wega wega kana pa6,2% nemari yegore negore? Vanhu vazhinji havatomboedzi kuita masvomhu akadaro uye havatombodi kuunganidza ruzivo rwakadzama nezvemari yavo. Panzvimbo pekuverenga, manzwiro uye manzwiro zvakabatana. Kana kuti vanoita fungidziro diki, semuenzaniso, kuverenga mutengo wepagore wokuva nemotokari zvakadzama, nepo mari yese iyi ingangova 5% chete yezvese zvinoshandiswa (uye kushandisa pane zvimwe zvinhu zvehupenyu hazviverengeki). Uropi hwemunhu hunogona kukanganisa pfungwa. Semuenzaniso, zvakaoma kurega, pasinei nekusabhadhara, bhizinesi umo nguva yakawanda nemari zvakaiswa. Vanhu vanowanzova netarisiro yakanyanyisa uye havatarisi njodzi, pamwe nekufungidzira zviri nyore uye vanogona kutenga mari inodhura kana kuisa mari mupiramidhi yemari.
Zvechokwadi, munyaya yebhangi, kuongororwa kwepfungwa hakushandi. Naizvozvo, ndinoda kutanga ndataura nezvekuti munhuwo zvake anoongorora sei mari (kusanganisira ini), uye kuti bhanga rinozviita sei. Pazasi pachange paine chirongwa chemari chedzidzo uye zvakawanda nezve data analytics muSberbank yebhangi rese rose.
Mhedziso dzakawanikwa dzinopihwa chete semuenzaniso uye hazvigone kutorwa semakurudziro kune vakazvimirira vega, sezvo vasingatarise zvinhu zvakawanda zvinosara kunze kwechikamu chechinyorwa ichi.
Semuenzaniso, chero chiitiko che "black swan" mune macroeconomics, mukutonga kwekambani chero kambani, nezvimwewo, inogona kutungamirira kukuchinja kukuru.
Ngatitii wakabhadhara kare chikwereti chako chemba uye une mari yawakachengeta. Ichi chinyorwa chinogona kukubatsira iwe kana iwe:
- hazvina basa kuti waunganidza pfuma yakawanda sei uye kuti unoichengeta sei
- uchinetseka kuti woita sei kuti chivakwa chako chikuunzire imwe mari
- Ini ndoda kunzwisisa kuti ndeipi yenzira dzekuisa mari ndiyo yakanyanya kunaka: real estate, deposits kana stocks
- kuziva kuti kuongororwa kweSberbank data kuchakupa zano nezvei panyaya iyi
Kazhinji vanhu vanoita zvisarudzo zvemari vasina ruzivo rwakakwana pamusoro pekuchinja kwemari yavo pachavo uye mari, pasina kuongororwa kwekukosha kwepfuma yavo pachavo, pasina kufunga nezvekukwira kwemitengo, nezvimwewo mukuverenga kwavo.
Dzimwe nguva vanhu vanokanganisa, sekutora chikwereti vachifunga kuti vanogona kudzosera votadza. Panguva imwecheteyo, mhinduro kumubvunzo wekuti munhu achakwanisa kubhadhara chikwereti inowanzozivikanwa kare. Iwe unongoda kuziva kuti imarii yaunowana, yakawanda sei yaunoshandisa, chii chiri simba rekuchinja mune izvi zviratidzo.
Kana, semuenzaniso, munhu anogamuchira imwe mhando yemuhoro kubasa, inowedzerwa nguva nenguva, ichiratidza seyero yekukodzera. Asi chaizvoizvo, kana ichienzaniswa nekukwira kwemitengo, mihoro yemunhu uyu inogona kudonha, uye angasaziva izvi kana asingachengeti marekodhi emari.
Vamwe vanhu havagone kuongorora kuti ndeipi sarudzo ine pundutso mumamiriro avo ezvinhu: kurenda imba kana kutora mbanje pamutengo wakadaro.
Uye pachinzvimbo chekuverenga kuti mari ichave yei mune iyi uye iyo kesi, neimwe nzira kuita mari zvisiri zvemari zviratidzo mukuverenga ("Ini ndinofungidzira kubatsirwa kubva kuMoscow kunyoreswa kuM rubles pamwedzi, ndinofungidzira kuve nyore kwekugara mufurati rakarendwa pedyo. shanda paN rubles pamwedzi"), vanhu vanomhanyira kuInternet kunokurukura nevatauri vanogona kunge vane mamiriro akasiyana emari uye zvimwe zvakakosha pakuongorora zviratidzo zvisiri zvemari.
Ini ndiri wekuronga zvemari. Chekutanga pane zvese, zvinokurudzirwa kuunganidza inotevera data pane yako wega mamiriro emari:
- accounting uye kukosha kwezvivakwa zvese zviripo
- kuverenga kwemari uye mari, pamwe chete nemusiyano pakati pemari nemari inoshandiswa, i.e. pfuma kuunganidza dynamics
Accounting uye kukosha kwezvinhu zvese zviripo
Kutanga, heino mufananidzo ungangodaro unokanganisa mamiriro emari evanhu. Mufananidzo wacho unoratidza chete zvikamu zvemari zveimba iyo vanhu vanoratidzwa vanayo. Muchokwadi, mushure mezvose, vanhu vanopa zvipo vangangove vane chimwe pfuma kunze kwezvikwereti, semhedzisiro yemari yavo yakaipa, asi kukosha kwese kwepfuma yavo kuchiri kukuru kupfuura kwemupemhi.
Ongorora zvaunazvo:
- musha
- land
- motokari
- bhengi deposits
- zvisungo zvechikwereti (neminus)
- mari (mastock, bond, ...)
- mutengo webhizinesi rako
- imwe pfuma
Pakati pezvivakwa, munhu anogona kucherechedza chikamu chemvura, chinogona kukurumidza kubviswa uye kushandurwa kuita mamwe mafomu. Somuenzaniso, mugove mufurati yaunayo pamwe chete nehama dzokunyama dzinogara mairi inogona kurongwa sechinhu chisina kufanira. Kudyara kwenguva refu mumadhipoziti kana migove isingakwanise kubviswa pasina kurasikirwa kunogonawo kunzi illiquid. Nekudaro, zvivakwa zvaunazvo asi usingagare mazviri, mota, pfupi-pfupi uye inodzoreredzwa madhipoziti anogona kuverengerwa semvura pfuma. Semuenzaniso, kana iwe uchida mari yekukurumidzira kurapwa, saka mabhenefiti emamwe maturusi angangoita zero, saka iyo liquidity share inonyanya kukosha.
Kupfuurirazve, pakati pepfuma inogona kusiyaniswa isingabatsiri uye inobatsira. Semuenzaniso, zvivakwa zvisina kubhadharwa, pamwe nemotokari, zvinogona kutorwa sezvisingabatsiri. Uye akarenda real estate, madhipoziti uye mashareti akaiswa mari pachiyero chiri pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo zvinhu zvine pundutso.
Iwe uchawana, semuenzaniso, mufananidzo wakadaro (iyo data inogadzirwa zvisina tsarukano):
Kune vanhu vazhinji, mufananidzo uyu unotaridzika wakatsveyama. Semuenzaniso, mbuya murombo vanogona kugara mufurati inodhura muMoscow isingaunzi purofiti, vachirarama ruoko nemuromo kubva pamudyandigere kuenda kupenjeni, vasingafungi nezvekugadzirisazve pfuma yavo. Kwaizova kuchenjera kuti achinjane dzimba nemuzukuru wake kuti awane muripo. Mukupesana, mutengesi anganyura zvikuru mukudyara mumasheya zvokuti anoshaya mamwe marudzi epfuma nokuda kwezuva rokunaya kwemvura, izvo zvinogona kuva nengozi. Iwe unogona kudhirowa mufananidzo wakadaro wepfuma yako uye unoshamisika kana zvisiri kuchenjera kuchinja nzvimbo yacho nenzira ine pundutso.
Accounting yemari, mari uye dynamics yekuunganidza zvivakwa
Zvinokurudzirwa kuti ugare uchirekodha mari yaunowana uye zvaunoshandisa pamagetsi. Munguva yeinternet banking, hazvitore kushanda nesimba. Panguva imwecheteyo, mari uye mari inogona kugoverwa muzvikamu. Kupfuurirazve, achivabatanidza nemakore, munhu anogona kuwana mhedziso pamusoro pesimba ravo. Izvo zvakakosha kuti titarise inflation kuitira kuti uve neruzivo rwekuti zviyero zvemakore apfuura zvinotaridzika sei mumitengo yanhasi. Munhu wese ane bhasiketi rake revatengi. Mafuta epeturu nechikafu anokwira mutengo pamitengo yakasiyana. Asi kuverenga inflation yako pachako kwakaoma. Naizvozvo, nekumwe kukanganisa, zvinokwanisika kushandisa data pane yepamutemo inflation rate.
Mwedzi wega wega inflation data inowanikwa kubva kune akawanda akazaruka masosi, kusanganisira ayo akaiswa kuSberbank data lake.
Muenzaniso wekuona kushanduka kwemari-mari (iyo data inogadzirwa zvisina tsarukano, simba rekukwira kwemitengo ndeyechokwadi):
Kuve nemufananidzo wakazara wakadaro, unogona kutora mhedziso nezve kukura kwako chaiko / kuderera kwemari uye kukura chaiko / kudzikira kwekuchengetedza, ongorora madhiri emari nechikamu uye kuita sarudzo dzine ruzivo rwemari.
Ndeipi nzira yekudyara mari yemahara inokunda inflation uye inounza mari isingaite?
Iyo Sberbank data dziva ine data rakakosha panyaya iyi:
- dynamics yemutengo pa square mita muMoscow
- dhatabhesi yezvirongwa zvekutengesa nekurojesa real estate muMoscow neMoscow suburbs
- dynamics yeavhareji yegore negore mubereko pamadhipoziti
- ruble inflation dynamics
- Dynamics yeMoscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR)
- Moscow exchange stock quotes uye data pazvikamu zvakabhadharwa
Iyi data ichatibvumira kufananidza kudzoka uye njodzi dzekudyara munzvimbo yekurojesa, madhipoziti ebhangi uye musika wekuenzanisa. Ngatisakanganwe kukonzeresa inflation.
Ndinofanira kutaura pakarepo kuti mune ino positi isu takabatikana chete mukuongororwa kwedata uye hatishandisi kushandisa chero dzidziso dzehupfumi. Ngatingoonai izvo data redu rinoti - ndeipi nzira yekuchengetedza uye kukura mari muRussia yakaburitsa zvakanakisa mhedzisiro mumakore achangopfuura.
Tichatsanangura muchidimbu kuti data inoshandiswa sei munyaya ino uye imwe data muSberbank inounganidzwa uye kuongororwa. Pane dura rezvinyorwa zvinyorwa zvakachengetwa mu parquet fomati pahadoop. Zvose zviri mukati (zvakasiyana-siyana AS zvebhangi) uye zvinyorwa zvekunze zvinoshandiswa. Source replicas inounganidzwa nenzira dzakasiyana. Kune chigadzirwa cheshuramurove chakavakirwa paspark, uye yechipiri chigadzirwa, Ab Initio AIR, chiri kuwedzera simba. Source replicas inorodha kune akasiyana Cloudera-inotungamirwa hadoop masumbu, uye anogona kubatanidzwa kubva kune rimwe sumbu kuenda kune rimwe. Masumbu akapatsanurwa zvakanyanya nemabhuroki ebhizinesi, kune zvakare Data Lab masumbu. Zvichienderana nekwakabva mareplicas, akasiyana data marts anovakwa anowanikwa kune vashandisi vebhizinesi uye data masayendisiti. Yakasiyana-siyana spark application, mikoko mibvunzo, mashandisirwo ekuongorora data, uye kuona mhedzisiro muSVG graphics fomati yakashandiswa kunyora chinyorwa ichi.
Nhoroondo kuongororwa kwemusika wekutengesa zvivakwa
Kuongorora kunoratidza kuti real estate munguva refu inokura maererano ne inflation, i.e. mumitengo chaiyo haiwedzeri kana kuderera. Heano magirafu emasimba emitengo yezvivakwa zvekugara muMoscow, zvichiratidza iripo yekutanga data.
Chati yemutengo mumaruble kusasanganisa inflation:
Mutengo wechati mumaruble, uchifunga nezve inflation (mumitengo yemazuva ano):
Tinoona kuti munhoroondo mutengo wakashanduka wakapoteredza 200 rubles / sq.m. mumitengo yemazuva ano uye kusagadzikana kwaive kwakaderera.
Ndeipi pesenti pagore pamusoro peinflation inounzwa nekudyara mudzimba dzekugara? Ko goho rinoenderana sei nehuwandu hwemakamuri mufurati? Ngationgororei dhatabhesi yeSberbank yemashambadziro ekutengesa nekurojesa dzimba muMoscow uye kuMoscow suburbs.
Mune dhatabhesi yedu, pakanga paine zvivakwa zvakawanda zvemafurati umo mune zviziviso zvekutengeswa kwedzimba uye kushambadza kwekurenda dzimba panguva imwe chete, uye huwandu hwemakamuri mudzimba dzinotengeswa uye dzekurenda dzakafanana. Takaenzanisa zviitiko zvakadaro, tichizvibatanidza nedzimba uye nhamba yemakamuri mufurati. Kana paiva nekupa kwakawanda muboka rakadaro, mutengo wepakati wakaverengwa. Kana nzvimbo yedzimba dzakatengeswa nekurendwa dzakasiyana, ipapo mutengo wekupa wakashandurwa zvakaenzana kuitira kuti nzvimbo dzedzimba dzakaenzaniswa dzienzane. Nekuda kweizvozvo, zvikumbiro zvakaiswa pahurongwa. Denderedzwa rega rega ifurati inopihwa kutengwa nekurendwa panguva imwe chete. Pa-axis yakatwasuka tinoona mutengo wekutora furati, uye pane yakatwasuka axis - mutengo wekurenda imba imwechete. Huwandu hwemakamuri mufurati hwakajeka kubva kune ruvara rwedenderedzwa, uye yakakura nzvimbo yefurati, iyo yakakura radius yedenderedzwa. Tichifunga nezvezvinodhura zvakanyanya, hurongwa hwakaita seizvi:
Kana iwe ukabvisa zvinodhura zvinopihwa, unogona kuona mitengo muchikamu chehupfumi mune zvakadzama:
Correlation ongororo inoratidza kuti hukama pakati pemutengo wekurenda imba uye mutengo wekuitenga uri padyo nemutsara.
Zvakazoitika chiyero chinotevera pakati pemutengo wekuroja furati pagore uye mutengo wekutora imba (ngatisakanganwa kuti mutengo wepagore ndeye gumi nemaviri pamwedzi):
Nhamba yemakamuri:
Huyero hwemutengo wekurenda kwepagore kwefurati kune mutengo wekutora imba:
1-kamuri
5,11%
2-kamuri
4,80%
3-kamuri
4,94%
chete
4,93%
Yakawana chiyero cheavhareji ye4,93% pagore kubva mukurenda imba inodarika inflation. Zvinonakidzawo kuti zvakachipa 1-room mafurati ane mari yakawanda kuroja. Isu takafananidza mutengo wekupa, uyo mune ese ari maviri (kurenda uye kutenga) inodhura zvishoma, saka hapana kugadzirisa kunodiwa. Nekudaro, zvimwe zvigadziriso zvinodikanwa: dzimba dzekurenda dzimwe nguva dzinoda kugadziridzwa zvine mutsindo, zvinotora nguva kuwana muroja uye dzimba dzacho hadzina chinhu, dzimwe nguva mubhadharo wekushandisa haubatanidzwe mumutengo wekuroja muchidimbu kana zvizere, uye ipapo. zvakare kuderera kushoma kwedzimba nekufamba kwemakore.
Tichifunga nezvekugadzirisa, kubva pakurenda dzimba dzekugara, unogona kuwana mari inosvika 4,5% pagore (kunze kwekuti iyo pfuma pachayo haina kudzikira). Kana goho rakadaro richinakidza, Sberbank ine zvakawanda zvinopihwa paDomClick.
Kuongorora kwenhoroondo yemitengo yedhipoziti
Ruble deposits muRussia mumakore mashoma apfuura zvakanyanya kudarika inflation. Asi kwete ne4,5%, senge real estate yekurenda, asi, paavhareji, ne2%.
Mune chati iri pasi apa, tinoona simba rekuenzanisa mari yedhipoziti uye inflation.
Ndichacherechedza nguva yakadai kuti mari inobva kumadhipoziti inorova inflation yakati tsigiro pane iri pamusoro pechati nekuda kwezvikonzero zvinotevera:
- Iwe unogona kugadzirisa chiyero pamadhipoziti akadzoserwa panguva yakanaka kwemwedzi yakati wandei pamberi
- Monthly capitalization, hunhu hwemipiro yakawanda inosanganisirwa mune aya avhareji data, inowedzera purofiti nekuda kwekufarira kwakabatana
- Kumusoro kwakatariswa mitengo yemabhanga gumi epamusoro maererano neruzivo kubva kuBhangi reRussia, kunze kwegumi yepamusoro unogona kuwana mitengo yakakwira zvishoma.
Kana iri madhipoziti mumadhora nemaeuro, ndichataura kuti vanorova inflation mumadhora nemaeuro, zvichiteerana, isina kusimba kupfuura iyo ruble inorova ruble inflation.
Nhoroondo yekuongorora kwemusika wemari
Zvino ngatitarisei musika wakasiyana uye une njodzi wemasheya eRussia. Kudzoka kwekudyara mumasheya hakuna kugadzikiswa uye kunogona kusiyana zvakanyanya. Nekudaro, kana iwe ukasiyanisa midziyo uye nekudyara kwenguva yakareba, unogona kuteedzera avhareji yemubereko wepagore inoratidza kubudirira kwekudyara mune stock portfolio.
Kune vaverengi vari kure nemusoro, ini ndichataura mazwi mashoma nezve stock indices. MuRussia, kune iyo Moscow Exchange index, iyo inoratidza masimba eiyo ruble kukosha kweiyo portfolio ine makumi mashanu makuru eRussia stocks. Kuumbwa kweindekisi uye chikamu chezvikamu zvekambani imwe neimwe zvinoenderana nehuwandu hwekutengesa mashandiro, huwandu hwebhizinesi, huwandu hwemasheya mukutenderera. Chati iri pazasi inoratidza kuti iyo Moscow Exchange index (kureva iyo avhareji yepodfolio) yakakura sei mumakore achangopfuura.
Varidzi vemasheya mazhinji vanopihwa nguva nenguva migove inogona kudzoserwa mumasheya mamwechete aunza mari. Mutero unobhadharwa pazvikamu zvakagamuchirwa. Iyo Moscow Exchange Index haifungidzire kugoverwa kwegoho.
Nokudaro, tichave tichinyanya kufarira kuMoscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR), iyo inofunga nezvezvikamu zvakagamuchirwa uye mutero wakabviswa kubva kune izvi zvikamu. Ngatiratidzei pachati pazasi kuti iyi index yakachinja sei mumakore achangopfuura. Pamusoro pezvo, ngatitarisei inflation toona kuti iyi index yakakura sei mumitengo yemazuva ano:
Girafu yakasvibirira ndiyo chaiyo kukosha kwepodfolio mumitengo yemazuva ano, kana iwe ukadyara muMoscow Exchange index, gara uchidzosa migove uye ubhadhare mutero.
Ngationei kuti kukura kweindekisi yeMCFTR mumakore 1,2,3,β¦,11 apfuura. Avo. Kudzoka kwedu kungava chii kana tikatenga migove inoenderana neindekisi iyi uye tichigara tichiisazve migove yakagamuchirwa muzvikamu zvakafanana:
Makore
Musha
Kuguma
MCFTR
early With
uchifunga nezve
infl.
MCFTR
con. With
uchifunga nezve
infl.
Coeff.
kukura
Gore negore
coefficient
kukura
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2020
3835,52
5095,54
1,328513
1,152612
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2020
3113,38
5095,54
1,636659
1,178472
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2020
3115,30
5095,54
1,635650
1,130896
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2020
2682,35
5095,54
1,899655
1,136933
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2020
2488,07
5095,54
2,047989
1,126907
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2020
2497,47
5095,54
2,040281
1,107239
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2020
2634,99
5095,54
1,933799
1,085929
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2020
3245,76
5095,54
1,569907
1,051390
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
2847,81
5095,54
1,789284
1,059907
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2020
2223,17
5095,54
2,292015
1,078318
Isu tinoona kuti, takaisa chero nhamba yemakore apfuura, tingadai takawana kukunda pamusoro pekukwira kwe5-18% pagore, zvichienderana nekubudirira kwenzvimbo yekupinda.
Ngatigadzire imwe tafura - kwete purofiti yemakore ese ekupedzisira N, asi purofiti kune yega yega N yekupedzisira-gore rimwe nguva:
Gore
Musha
Kuguma
MCFTR
early With
uchifunga nezve
infl.
MCFTR
con. With
uchifunga nezve
infl.
Gore negore
coefficient
kukura
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2019
3835,52
4697,47
1,224728
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2018
3113,38
3835,52
1,231947
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2017
3115,30
3113,38
0,999384
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2016
2682,35
3115,30
1,161407
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2015
2488,07
2682,35
1,078085
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2014
2497,47
2488,07
0,996236
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2013
2634,99
2497,47
0,947810
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2012
3245,76
2634,99
0,811825
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2011
2847,81
3245,76
1,139739
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2010
2223,17
2847,81
1,280968
Tinoona kuti haasi ose emakore akabudirira, asi makore asina kubudirira akateverwa nemakore akabudirira, ayo "akagadzirisa zvinhu zvose".
Zvino, kuti tinzwisise zvirinani, ngatitorei muchidimbu kubva muindekisi iyi uye titarise muenzaniso weiyo stock chaiyo, chii chingave mhedzisiro kana iwe waisa mari muchitoro ichi makore gumi nemashanu apfuura, wakaisazve zvikamu uye wakabhadhara mutero. Ngationei mhedzisiro tichifunga nezve inflation, i.e. pamitengo yazvino. Pazasi pane muenzaniso weyakajairwa mugove weSberbank. Girafu yakasvibirira inoratidza kusimba kwekukosha kwepodfolio, iyo pakutanga yaive nechikamu chimwe cheSberbank pamitengo yazvino, tichifunga nezvekudzoreredzwa kwezvikamu. Kwemakore gumi nemashanu, inflation yakaderedza ruble ne 15 nguva. Chikamu cheSberbank pamusoro pemakore chakakwira mumutengo kubva ku15 rubles. kusvika ku3.014135 rubles, i.e. mutengo wakawedzera ne21.861 nguva isingabatanidzi inflation. Mumakore aya, muridzi wemugove mumwe akabhadharwa panguva dzakasiyana-siyana, mambure emitero, muhuwandu hwe218.15 rubles. Huwandu hwezvikamu zvakabhadharwa zvinoratidzwa pachati sezvimiti zvitsvuku zvakamira uye hazvireve kune iyo chati pachayo, umo migove nekudzorera kwavo kunotariswa zvakare. Kana nguva imwe neimwe iyi migove yakashandiswa kutenga zvikamu zveSberbank zvakare, ipapo pakupera kwenguva iyo mugoveri akanga atova asina imwe, asi 9.978958 zvikamu. Tichifunga nezvekudzoreredzwa kwezvikamu uye inflation, iyo yekutanga portfolio yakakwira mumutengo ne40.811613 nguva pamakore gumi nemashanu, i.Π΅. yakakwira mumutengo ne1.309361 nguva pagore. Pakazara, chikamu chakajairika cheSberbank chakaunza muridzi weavhareji ye4.334927% pagore pamusoro peinflation imwe neimwe yemakore gumi nemashanu apfuura:
Semumwe muenzaniso, ngatitorei mufananidzo wakafanana nemasimba ezvikamu zvakasarudzwa zveSberbank. Chikamu chaidiwa cheSberbank chakaunza muridzi wacho zvakanyanya paavhareji, 13,59% pagore pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo imwe neimwe yemakore gumi nemashanu apfuura:
Iyi mhedzisiro ichave yakadzikira zvishoma mukuita, nekuti kana uchitenga migove unofanirwa kubhadhara komisheni diki yebrokerage. Panguva imwecheteyo, mhedzisiro inogona kuvandudzwa kana iwe ukashandisa Individual Investment Account, iyo inokutendera iwe kuti ugamuchire kuderedzwa kwemutero kubva kuhurumende mune imwe mari shoma. Kana usati wanzwa nezve izvi, zvinokurudzirwa kutsvaga chidimbu "IIS". Ngatisakanganwewo kutaura kuti IIS inogona kuvhurwa paSberbank.
Saka, isu takambogamuchira kuti inhoroondo inobatsira kuisa mari mumasheya pane zvivakwa nemadhipoziti. Zvekunakidzwa, heino hit parade yemakumi maviri epamusoro masheya anga achitengesa pamusika kweanopfuura makore gumi, akawanikwa semhedzisiro yekuongorora data. Muchikamu chekupedzisira, tinoona kuti kangani iyo portfolio yemasheya yakakura paavhareji gore rega rega, tichifunga nezve inflation uye kudzoreredzwa kwezvikamu. Isu tinoona kuti masheya mazhinji anorova inflation neinopfuura 20%:
Stock
Musha
Kuguma
Coeff. inflation
Kutanga mutengo
Con. mutengo
Kureba
nhamba
migove
pamutengo
dzosera-
zviteshi
divi-
dendov,
nguva
yekupedzisira
pakati
gore negore
kukura, nguva
Lenzoloto
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1267,02
17290
2,307198
1,326066
NKNKH ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
5,99
79,18
2,319298
1,322544
MGTS-4ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
339,99
1980
3,188323
1,257858
Tatnft 3ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
72,77
538,8
2,037894
1,232030
MGTS-5ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
380,7
2275
2,487047
1,230166
Akron
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
809,88
5800
2,015074
1,226550
Lenzol. kumusoro
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
845
5260
2,214068
1,220921
NKNKh JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
14,117
92,45
1,896548
1,208282
Lenerg-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
25,253
149,5
1,904568
1,196652
GMKNorNik
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
4970
19620
2,134809
1,162320
Surgnfgz-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
13,799
37,49
2,480427
1,136619
IRKUT-3
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
8,127
35,08
1,543182
1,135299
Tatnft 3ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
146,94
558,4
1,612350
1,125854
Novatek JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
218,5
1080,8
1,195976
1,121908
SevSt-AO
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
358
908,4
2,163834
1,113569
Krasesb ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
3,25
7,07
2,255269
1,101105
CHTPZ JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
55,7
209,5
1,304175
1,101088
Sberbank-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
56,85
203,33
1,368277
1,100829
PIK JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
108,26
489,5
1,079537
1,100545
RUKAIL
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1720
5115
1,639864
1,100444
Ikozvino, tatora data, isu tichagadzirisa akati wandei matambudziko pamusoro pechii chaizvo chakakodzera kuisa mari machiri, kana isu tichitenda kuti kwenguva refu mafambiro mukukosha kwemamwe masheya achaenderera mberi. Zviri pachena kuti hazvina kurongeka zvachose kufanotaura mutengo weramangwana maererano nechati yapfuura, asi isu tichatsvaga vanokunda mukudyara kwenguva dzakapfuura mumapoka akati wandei.
Basa. Tsvaga iyo stock inogara ichipfuura real estate (CAGR 1.045 pamusoro peinflation) huwandu hwepamusoro hwenguva mune imwe neimwe yegumi yekupedzisira yegore rimwe nguva iyo stock yakatengeswa.
Mune izvi uye nemabasa anotevera, tinoreva muenzaniso wepamusoro nekudzoreredzwa kwezvikamu uye accounting yekukwira kwemitengo.
Heano vakundi muchikamu ichi zvinoenderana nekuongorora kwedu data. Mastock ari pamusoro petafura anogara achiita zvakanaka gore negore pasina dips. Pano Gore 1 ndi 30.07.2019/30.07.2020/2-30.07.2018/30.07.2019/XNUMX, Gore XNUMX ndi XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX-XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX, nezvimwewo:
Stock
Nhamba ye
kukunda
pamusoro
musha
dzvanya-
stu
for the
mushure-
mazuva
10 makore
Mwaka 1
Mwaka 2
Mwaka 3
Mwaka 4
Mwaka 5
Mwaka 6
Mwaka 7
Mwaka 8
Mwaka 9
Mwaka 10
Tatnft 3ap
8
0,8573
1,4934
1,9461
1,6092
1,0470
1,1035
1,2909
1,0705
1,0039
1,2540
MGTS-4ap
8
1,1020
1,0608
1,8637
1,5106
1,7244
0,9339
1,1632
0,9216
1,0655
1,6380
CHTPZ JSC
7
1,5532
1,2003
1,2495
1,5011
1,5453
1,2926
0,9477
0,9399
0,3081
1,3666
SevSt-AO
7
0,9532
1,1056
1,3463
1,1089
1,1955
2,0003
1,2501
0,6734
0,6637
1,3948
NKNKh JSC
7
1,3285
1,5916
1,0821
0,8403
1,7407
1,3632
0,8729
0,8678
1,0716
1,7910
MGTS-5ao
7
1,1969
1,0688
1,8572
1,3789
2,0274
0,8394
1,1685
0,8364
1,0073
1,4460
Gazpromneft
7
0,8119
1,3200
1,6868
1,2051
1,1751
0,9197
1,1126
0,7484
1,1131
1,0641
Tatnft 3ao
7
0,7933
1,0807
1,9714
1,2109
1,0728
1,1725
1,0192
0,9815
1,0783
1,1785
Lenerg-p
7
1,3941
1,1865
1,7697
2,4403
2,2441
0,6250
1,2045
0,7784
0,4562
1,4051
NKNKH ap
7
1,3057
2,4022
1,2896
0,8209
1,2356
1,6278
0,7508
0,8449
1,5820
2,4428
Surgnfgz-p
7
1,1897
1,0456
1,2413
0,8395
0,9643
1,4957
1,2140
1,1280
1,4013
1,0031
Isu tinoona kuti kunyangwe vatungamiriri havana kuhwina zvivakwa maererano nemhindu gore negore. Kusvetuka kwakasimba muchikamu chemubairo mumakore akasiyana kunoratidza kuti kana iwe uchida kugadzikana, zviri nani kusiyanisa midziyo, uye zvine hungwaru, kudyara mune index.
Iye zvino tinogadzira uye tinogadzirisa dambudziko rakadaro rekuongorora data. Zvine basa here kufungidzira zvishoma, nguva yega yega kutenga masheya mazuva M isati yasvika zuva rekubhadhara uye kutengesa zvikamu N mazuva mushure mezuva rekubhadhara? Zviri nani here kukohwa zvikwereti uye "kubuda kunze" pane "kugara mumatanda" gore rose? Ngatifungei kuti hapana kurasikirwa pane komisheni kubva pakupinda-kubuda kwakadaro. Uye kuongororwa kwedata kuchatibatsira kuwana miganhu yeM neN corridor, iyo yakave yakabudirira zvakanyanya mukukohwa migove pane kubata migove kwenguva yakareba.
Heino anecdote kubva muna 2008.
John Smith, akasvetuka kubva nepahwindo re75th floor paWall Street, mushure mekurova pasi, akasvetuka mamita gumi, izvo zvakamukunda kudonha kwake kwemangwanani.
Ndizvo zvakaitawo nezvikamu: tinofungidzira kuti mukufamba kwemusika munharaunda yezuva rekubhadhara mugove, kuratidzwa kwakawanda kwemusika kunoratidzwa, i.e. nekuda kwezvikonzero zvepfungwa, musika unogona kudonha kana kusimuka kupfuura iyo mari yekugovera inoda.
Basa. Kufungidzira mwero wekudzoreredzwa kwemasheya mushure mekubhadharwa kwezvikamu. Zviri nani here kupinda pamberi pemubhadharo wekugoverwa uye kubuda imwe nguva gare gare pane kuva nestock gore rese? Ndeapi mazuva mangani pamberi pemubhadharo wekugoverwa kwandinofanira kupinda mumasheya uye mazuva mangani mushure mekubhadharwa kwechikamu ndinofanira kubuda muchitoro kuti ndiwane purofiti yakanyanya?
Modhi yedu yakaverengera misiyano yese muhupamhi hwenharaunda yakatenderedza mazuva ekubhadharwa kwegovidhi munhoroondo yese. Zvirambidzo zvinotevera zvakagamuchirwa: M<=30, N>=20. Icho chokwadi ndechekuti zuva uye huwandu hwekubhadhara hazviwanzo kuzivikanwa pamberi pemazuva makumi matatu kusati kwabhadharwa kwezvikamu. Zvakare, migove haiuye kuaccount nekukurumidza, asi nekunonoka. Isu tinotenda kuti zvinotora angangoita mazuva makumi maviri kuti tive nechokwadi chekugamuchira mibairo paaccount uye nekuiisa zvakare. Nezvirambidzo izvi, modhi yakaburitsa mhinduro inotevera. Nguva yakanakisa yekutenga migove mazuva makumi matatu nemana zuva remuripo risati rasvika uye woatengesa mazuva makumi maviri nemashanu kubva pazuva rekubhadhara. Pasi pechiitiko ichi, avhareji yekukura kwe30% panguva iyi yakawanikwa, iyo inopa 20% pagore. Avo. neyakatariswa yekudyara modhi (pamwe nekudzoreredza kwezvikamu uye uchifunga nezvekukwira kwemitengo), kana iwe ukatenga mugove mazuva makumi matatu nemana zuva rekubhadhara risati rasvika uye woitengesa mazuva makumi maviri nemashanu mushure mezuva rekubhadhara, isu tine 34% pagore pamusoro peiyo inflation. rate. Izvi zvinosimbiswa neavhareji pamusoro penyaya dzese dzemubhadharo wedividendi kubva kune yedu database.
Semuyenzaniso, pachikamu chinodiwa cheSberbank, chiitiko chakadaro chekubuda chinopa 11,72% kukura pamusoro pemutengo weinflation wekupinda-kubuda kwega kwega pedyo nezuva rekubhadhara chikamu. Izvi zvinosvika 98,6% pagore pamusoro pe inflation rate. Asi izvi, zvechokwadi, muenzaniso werombo rakanaka.
Stock
kupinda
Dividend date
Buda
Coeff. kukura
Sberbank-p
10.05.2019
13.06.2019
08.07.2019
1,112942978
Sberbank-p
23.05.2018
26.06.2018
21.07.2018
0,936437635
Sberbank-p
11.05.2017
14.06.2017
09.07.2017
1,017492563
Sberbank-p
11.05.2016
14.06.2016
09.07.2016
1,101864592
Sberbank-p
12.05.2015
15.06.2015
10.07.2015
0,995812419
Sberbank-p
14.05.2014
17.06.2014
12.07.2014
1,042997818
Sberbank-p
08.03.2013
11.04.2013
06.05.2013
0,997301095
Sberbank-p
09.03.2012
12.04.2012
07.05.2012
0,924053861
Sberbank-p
12.03.2011
15.04.2011
10.05.2011
1,010644958
Sberbank-p
13.03.2010
16.04.2010
11.05.2010
0,796937418
Sberbank-p
04.04.2009
08.05.2009
02.06.2009
2,893620094
Sberbank-p
04.04.2008
08.05.2008
02.06.2008
1,073578067
Sberbank-p
08.04.2007
12.05.2007
06.06.2007
0,877649005
Sberbank-p
25.03.2006
28.04.2006
23.05.2006
0,958642001
Sberbank-p
03.04.2005
07.05.2005
01.06.2005
1,059276282
Sberbank-p
28.03.2004
01.05.2004
26.05.2004
1,049810801
Sberbank-p
06.04.2003
10.05.2003
04.06.2003
1,161792898
Sberbank-p
02.04.2002
06.05.2002
31.05.2002
1,099316569
Saka, kutariswa kwemusika kwatsanangurwa pamusoro kunoitika, uye mumazuva ekubhadhara kwezvikamu zvakati wandei, goho ragara rakakwira zvishoma pane kubva pakubata kwegore rose kwemasheya.
Ngatiisei modhi yedu rimwe basa rekuongorora data:
Basa. Tsvaga stock ine mukana wakajairika wekupinda-yekubuda mihoro padhuze nezuva rekubhadhara. Tichaongorora kuti ingani nyaya dzekubhadharwa kwedividend dzakaita kuti zvikwanise kuwana mari inodarika gumi muzana pagore pamusoro peiyo inflation rate, kana ukapinda mustock mazuva makumi matatu nemana zvisati zvaitika uye wobuda mazuva makumi maviri nemashanu kubva pazuva rekubhadhara.
Tichatarisa mastock ayo anga aine kanenge 5 makesi ekubhadhara kwedividend. Mhedzisiro yekurova parade inoratidzwa pazasi. Ziva kuti mhedzisiro yacho inonyanya kukosha kubva pakuona kwedambudziko rekuongorora data, asi kwete segwaro rinoshanda rekudyara.
Stock
Nhamba ye
nyaya dzekukunda
zvinopfuura 10% pagore
pamusoro peinflation
Nhamba ye
kesi
kubhadhara
mubairo
Govera
kesi
kukunda
Avhareji coefficient kukura
Lenzoloto
5
5
1
1,320779017
IDGC SZ
6
7
0,8571
1,070324870
Rollman-p
6
7
0,8571
1,029644533
Rosseti kumusoro
4
5
0,8
1,279877637
Kubanenr
4
5
0,8
1,248634960
LSR JSC
8
10
0,8
1,085474828
ALROSA JSC
8
10
0,8
1,042920287
FGC UES JSC
6
8
0,75
1,087420610
NCSP JSC
10
14
0,7143
1,166690777
KuzbTK JSC
5
7
0,7143
1,029743667
Kubva pakuongorora kwemusika wemasheya, tinogona kutora mhedziso dzinotevera:
- Yakave yakasimbiswa kuti kudzoka kwezvikamu zvakaziviswa muzvinhu zvemabhuroka, makambani ekudyara uye mamwe mapato anofarira akakwira kupfuura madhipoziti uye ekudyara real estate.
- Iko kusagadzikana kwemusika wemasheya kwakakwira zvakanyanya, asi zvinokwanisika kuisa mari kwenguva yakareba nekusiyana kwakasiyana kweiyo portfolio. Nekuda kwekuwedzera 13% mutero kubviswa paunenge uchiisa mari muIIS, zvinokurudzirwa kuti uvhure musika wemasheya uye izvi zvinogona kuitwa, kusanganisira kuSberbank.
- Zvichienderana nekuongororwa kwemhedzisiro yenguva dzakapfuura, vatungamiriri vakawanikwa maererano nekugadzikana kwemhindu yepamusoro uye purofiti yekupinda-yekubuda munharaunda yezuva rekubhadhara chikamu. Nekudaro, mhedzisiro yacho haina kujeka uye haufanirwe kutungamirwa chete navo mukudyara kwako. Iyi yaive mienzaniso yemabasa ekuongorora data.
Total
Zvinobatsira kuchengeta rekodhi yemidziyo yako, pamwe chete nemari yaunowana nemari. Inobatsira mukuronga mari. Kana iwe ukakwanisa kuchengetedza mari, saka kune mikana yekuisa mari pachiyero chakakwira kupfuura inflation. Ongororo ye data kubva kuSberbank data dhamu yakaratidza kuti dhipoziti gore rega rega inodzoka 2%, dzimba dzekurenda - 4,5%, uye migove yeRussia - inenge 10% pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo ine njodzi huru.
Munyori: Mikhail Grichik, nyanzvi yenharaunda yehunyanzvi yeSberbank SberProfi DWH/BigData.
Iyo SberProfi DWH/BigData nyanzvi munharaunda ine basa rekuvandudza hunyanzvi munzvimbo dzakadai seHadoop ecosystem, Teradata, Oracle DB, GreenPlum, pamwe neBI zvishandiso Qlik, SAP BO, Tableau, nezvimwe.
Source: www.habr.com