Munhu wese achatyaira mota dzemagetsi rinhi?

Pana Ndira 11, 1914, chirevo chakabva kuna Henry Ford chakabuda muNew York Times:

“Ndinovimba kuti mukati megore tichatanga kugadzira motokari yemagetsi. Handifarire kutaura pamusoro pezvinhu zvegore rinouya, asi ndinoda kukuudza chimwe chinhu pamusoro pezvirongwa zvangu. Ichokwadi ndechokuti Mr. Edison neni tave tichishanda kwemakore akawanda kuti tigadzire motokari dzemagetsi dzakachipa uye dzinoshanda. Vakaitwa sechiedzo uye tinogutsikana kuti nzira yekubudirira iri pachena. Dambudziko remotokari dzemagetsi kusvika pari zvino rave rekugadzira bhatiri rakareruka iro rinokwanisa kushanda madaro marefu risingachajizve. VaEdison vanga vachiedza nebhatiri rakadaro kwenguva yakati.

Asi pane chakashata...

Thomas Edison pamwe neDetroit Electric

Chinyorwa ichi kuenderera mberi kune musoro kwechinyorwa changu chapfuura "Kudzidza kwe Logistics inoshanda semutemo wekusimudzira indasitiri."

iripi parameter r inokanganisa chiyero chekukura kwemugove wemusika, sezvo iri exponent - iyo yakakwirira iyi coefficient, inokurumidza teknolojia itsva ichakunda musika, i.e. Gore rega rega tekinoroji inofanirwa kunakidza kune vanhu vazhinji nekuda kwekureruka kwayo. K coefficient inotsanangura kugona kwekukura kwehunyanzvi hutsva, i.e. pamitengo yakaderera yeK, tekinoroji haizokwanisa kutora musika wese, asi inongokwanisa kukunda chikamu chemusika umo ichave inonakidza kupfuura tekinoroji yapfuura.

Chirevo chedambudziko ndechekutsvaga maparamendi anodiwa eiyo logistic equation inotitendera kufanotaura kusimukira kweindasitiri yemotokari dzemagetsi:

• "Gore Zero" ndiro gore iro hafu yemotokari dzinotengeswa munyika yose ichava nemagetsi emagetsi (P0=0,5, t = 0);
• chiyero chekukura kwemusika (r) motokari dzemagetsi.

Muchiitiko ichi, ngatiti:

• mota dzemagetsi dzichabvisa zvachose mota dzine injini dzinopisa dzemukati (ICE) kubva kumusika (K = 1), sezvo ini ndisingaone chinhu chinobvumira kupatsanura musika wemotokari dzevafambi.

  Musika wemotokari dzinorema uye michina yakakosha haina kuverengerwa pakugadzira modhi, uye hapasati pave nemusika wemotokari dzemagetsi mukati meindasitiri iyi.

• Isu tave kurarama mu "negative time" (P (t) <0) uye mukushanda kwatichashandisa offset inoenderana ne "zero gore" yenguva yedu (t-t0).

Huwandu hwehuwandu hwekutengesa mota dzevatyairi hunotorwa kubva pano.

Nhamba dzekutengesa motokari dzemagetsi dzakatorwa kubva pano.

Nhamba dzisati dzasvika 2012 pamotokari dzemagetsi dzinoshomeka zvikuru uye hadzizoverengerwa muchidzidzo.

Nekuda kweizvozvo, isu tine inotevera data:

Chirongwa chekutsvaga Gore Zero uye chiyero chekukura kwemusika

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math

x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468,  64341693]) # кол-во произведенных легковых машин
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247,  1940147]) # кол-во произведенных легковых электромобилей
y = y2/y1 #доля электромобилей в общем производстве автомобилей

ymax=1 #первоначальное максимальное отклонение статистических данных от значений функции
Gmax=2025 #год для начало поиска "нулевого года"
rmax=0.35 #начальный коэффициент
k=1 #принят "1" из предпосылки, что электромобили полностью заменят легковые автомобили с ДВС
p0=0.5 # процент рынка в "нулевой год"
for j in range(10): # цикл перебора "нулевых годов"
    x0=2025+j
    r=0.35
    
    for i in range(10): # цикл перебора коэффициента в каждом "нулевом году"
            r=0.25+0.02*i
            y4=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))-y 
           # print(str(x0).ljust(20), str(r).ljust(20), max(abs(y4))) 
            if max(abs(y4))<=ymax: # поиск минимального из максимальных отклонений внутри каждого года при каждом коэффициенте r
                ymax=max(abs(y4))
                Gmax=x0
                rmax=r
print(str(Gmax).ljust(20), str(rmax).ljust(20), ymax) # вывод "нулевого года", коэффициента r и максимального из отклонений от функции

Nekuda kwechirongwa, zvinotevera zvakakosha zvakasarudzwa:
Gore zero ndeye 2028.
Kukura coefficient - 0.37

Iyo yakanyanya kutsauka yenhamba data kubva kune yebasa kukosha ndeye 0.005255.

Iyo girafu yebasa iri pakati pa2012 na2019 inotaridzika seizvi:

Iyo yekupedzisira girafu ine fungidziro kusvika 2050 inotaridzika seizvi:

Iyo chati inoratidza cutoff ye99% yemusika wese, i.e. Pakazosvika 2040, mota dzemagetsi dzichatsiva zvachose mota neinjini dzinopisa mukati.

Basa graphing chirongwa

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math

x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468,  64341693])
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247,  1940147])
y = y2/y1

k=1
p0=0.5

x0=2028   
r=0.37 
y1=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))
#Строим график функции на отрезке между 2012 и 2019 годами
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5")
plt.grid()
ax.plot(x, y, 'o', color='tab:brown') 
ax.plot(x, y1)
#Строим график функции на отрезке между 2010 и 2050 годами
x = np.linspace(2010, 2050)
y2 = [k*p0*math.e**(r*(i-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(i-x0))-1)) for i in x]
y3 = 0.99+0*x
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5") 
ax.set_xlim([2010, 2050])
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
plt.grid()             
plt.plot(x, y2, x, y3)

zvakawanikwa

Kutevera pfungwa imwechete sepakutsanangura nhoroondo yekugadzirwa kwemotokari dzine injini dzinopisa mukati, ndakaedza kufanotaura kuvandudzwa kweindasitiri yemotokari dzemagetsi dzinotakura vanhu vachishandisa data iripo yehuwandu.

Migumisiro yakawanikwa inoratidza kuti panosvika gore ra2030, hafu yemotokari dzinotakura vanhu dzinotengeswa munyika inenge yava nemotokari yemagetsi, uye panosvika 2040, motokari dzinotakura vanhu dzine injini dzinopisa mukati zvichange zvisisipo.

Hongu, mushure megore ra2030, vamwe vanhu vachatyaira mota dzepeturu dzavakatenga pamberi pa2030, asi ivo vachaziva kuti kutenga kwavo kunotevera imotokari yemagetsi.
Chiyero chekukura kwemotokari dzemagetsi chakapetwa ka4 pane kukura kwemotokari dzine injini dzinopisa mukati, izvo zvinoratidza kuti hutsva hutsva huri kupinda muhupenyu hwedu nekukurumidza, huchive chikamu chebhanari yehupenyu hwedu hwezuva nezuva (pano tinoyeuka nharembozha) .

Mumakore anotevera, dambudziko rakatadza kugadziriswa naEdison rinofanirwa kugadziriswa - bhatiri rakakwana rinokwanisa kubvumira kureba pakati pezviteshi zvekuchaja.

Kugadzira network yezviteshi zvekuchaja zvakaenzana netiweki iripo yezviteshi zvegasi, zvinodikanwa kugadzirisa magetsi aripo mumaguta makuru uye nemigwagwa mikuru.

Zvakare, kukura kwekutengesa kwemotokari dzemagetsi kuchakanganiswa Jevans 'paradox, asi zvakakanganisawo mafuta pakati pekuderera kwekudiwa kwemarasha.

PS
Dai Edison akakwanisa kugadzirisa dambudziko raakapiwa, saka "zera remafuta" ringadai risina kutotanga ...

Vashandisi vakanyoresa chete ndivo vanogona kutora chikamu muongororo. Nyorera mu, Munogamuchirwa.

Munhu wese achatyaira mota dzemagetsi rinhi?

• 9,5%panosvika 2030, munhu wese achachinja kumotokari dzemagetsi, kwete hafu yegumi nemasere

• 20,0%Pakazosvika 2040, munhu wese achachinja kuenda kumotokari dzemagetsi38

• 48,4%kwete pamberi pe2050

• 22,1%Motokari yemagetsi haizombofi yakatsiva peturu42

190 vashandisi vakavhota. 37 vashandisi vakaramba.

Source: www.habr.com