MuFrench Fabrice Grinda agara achida kuisa njodzi - akabudirira kuisa mari mumazana emakambani: Alibaba, Airbnb, BlaBlaCar, Uber uye kunyange analogue yeRussia yeBhuku - iyo Oktogo sevhisi. Ane hunhu hunokosha hwemafambiro, kune izvo ramangwana ringave.
Monsieur Grinda haana kungoisa mari mumabhizinesi evamwe vanhu, asi akagadzirawo ake. Semuenzaniso, bhodhi remeseji yepamhepo OLX, iyo inoshandiswa nemazana emamiriyoni evanhu, ipfungwa dzake.
Mukuwedzera, dzimwe nguva anopedza nguva yekunyora zvinyorwa uye anonyora zvinyorwa zvinokakavadzana asi zvinonakidza. Nezve chii uye chii chichava. Anofarira mune ramangwana - zvese semuridzi uye semuoni.
Makore mashoma apfuura, akapa hurukuro kumagazini yeAlliancy ichitaura nezvenyika muna 2030.
Alliancy Magazine: Ndedzipi shanduko huru dzaunoona mumakore gumi?
Fabrice: Internet yezvinhu, semuenzaniso, mafiriji anoodha chikafu kana chapera, kuendesa drone nezvimwe zvakadaro. Zvose zviri kuuya. Pamusoro pezvo, ndinoona kumwe kufambira mberi kwakakosha munzvimbo shanu: mota, kutaurirana, mushonga, dzidzo uye simba. Technologies iripo, ramangwana rakatosvika, hazvina kufanana pese pese. Kuiswa kwakakura kunoda mari yakaderera uye nyore kushandisa.
Motokari dzichava "dzakagoverwa". Kusvika iye zvino, motokari dzinozvityaira dzakatotyaira mamiriyoni emakiromita pasina chiitiko. Asi kana motokari yenguva dzose muAmerica ichidhura paavhareji isingasviki madhora makumi maviri e20.000, saka hurongwa hunokubvumira kuti uishandure kuva motokari inozvifambisa inodhura inenge 100.000. Kubva pakuona kwemari, kushandiswa kwese kuchiri kusingabviri. Iko hakunawo hwaro hwepamutemo, sezvo zvichidikanwa kusarudza kuti ndiani achave ane mhosva pakaitika tsaona.
Zvakadini nepurofiti?
Mota ndiyo yechipiri sosi yekushandiswa kwebhajeti remhuri, kunyangwe ingangoita 95% yenguva yavanenge vasina basa. Vanhu vanoramba vachitenga mota nekuti zvakachipa pane kushandisa Uber nemutyairi, uye mota iyi inowanikwa chero nguva, kunyanya munzvimbo dzine vanhu vashoma.
Asi kana mutengo wemutyairi uchinge wanyangarika uye mota dzichizvimiririra, mari huru ichave kudzikira kwemakore akati wandei. Motokari "yakagovaniswa", yakashandiswa 90% yenguva, ichave yakachipa - saka pamatanho ese, kuve nemota hakuchaite. Mabhizinesi anozotenga zvikwata zvemota vozozvipa kune mamwe mabhizinesi anozoashandisa, seUber, aine hurongwa hwakakwana hwekuti mota ichavepo mumaminetsi mashoma, kusanganisira munzvimbo dzine vanhu vashoma. Izvi zvichanyanya kukanganisa nzanga nekuti kutyaira ndiko kunopa basa muUnited States. Vazhinji vashandi vachasunungurwa, uye mutengo wekutyaira uchadzikira.
Pave nebhindauko mukufambiswa kwemashoko here?
Aihwa. Chishandiso chakajairika, pasina izvo zvakaoma kufungidzira hupenyu, nhare mbozha, ichanyangarika zvachose. Muchidimbu, takatoita kufambira mberi kwakakosha mu "brain kuverenga" uye tiri padanho rakafanana nekuzivikanwa kwezwi makore gumi nemashanu apfuura. Ipapo, nokuda kweizvi madonzo, waida kadhi rakasimba roruzivo rwokuzviwanira namaawa okurovedza kuitira kuti inzwi rako rigogona kuzivikanwa nenzira inobudirira. Nhasi, nekuisa ngowani ine 15 maelectrodes mumusoro mako nemaawa mamwe chete ekudzidziswa, unogona kudzidza kudzora mupfungwa cursor pachiratidziro uye kutyaira ndege. Muna 128, kubatana kwehuropi-ku-uropi kwakatogadzirwa; mumwe munhu, achishandisa simba rekufunga, akakwanisa kufambisa ruoko rwemumwe munhu ...
Muna 2030, tichashanda kwatinoda, patinenge tichida uye kwenguva yakareba sezvatinoda.
Takamirira chii?
Zvinogoneka chose kuti mumakore gumi tinenge tave nepeya yemagetsi akajeka uye asingaonekwe muuropi hwedu, achitibvumira kushandisa pfungwa dzedu kuendesa mirairo kune miniature komputa kutiratidza maemail, zvinyorwa zvinoshandisa lasers pamagirazi anozoaratidza pa. retina kana kushandisa smart contact lenses.
Tichava nemhando ye "yakavandudzwa telepathy", isu tichatsinhanisa ruzivo mupfungwa: Ndinofunga chinyorwa, kutumira kwauri, iwe unoiverenga pane retina kana pane contact lenses. Hatichada mudziyo unopfekwa une chidzitiro chidiki uye musoro wedu unogara wakarerekera kwairi, izvo zvinotikanganisa uye kudzikisira nzvimbo yedu yekuona. Asi kunyange mumakore gumi aya achange ari mavambo chete. MaLaser anogona kutumira mifananidzo kune retina aripo, asi malenzi achiri emhando yakashata. Kuverenga pfungwa kuchiri kufungidzira uye kunoda supercomputer ine 10 electrodes. Muna 128, iyo yakaenzana neyeiyo supercomputer inodhura madhora makumi mashanu. Zvinogona kutora makore 2030-50 kugadzira maelectrode madiki uye anoshanda zvakakwana, pamwe nemapurogiramu anoenderana. Nekudaro, ma-smartphones achanyangarika zvachose.
Zvakadini nemishonga?
Nhasi, vanachiremba vashanu vanogona kupa zvishanu zvakasiyana-siyana zvekuongororwa kwechirwere chimwe chete nokuti vanhu havana kunaka pakuongorora. Nekudaro, Watson, supercomputer kubva kuIBM, ari nani pane vanachiremba mukuona mamwe marudzi egomarara. Pane zvinonzwisisika mune izvi, sezvo inofunga nezvese micron yemigumisiro yeMRI kana X-ray, uye chiremba anotarisa kwete kupfuura maminetsi mashomanana. Mumakore mashanu, diagnostics ichave iripo chete kumakomputa; mumakore gumi, isu tichave nedhisheni yepasirese yezvirwere zvese zvakajairika, kusanganisira dzihwa, HIV nezvimwe.
Panguva imwecheteyo, chimurenga chichaitika mukuvhiya. Chiremba webhobhoti "Da Vinci" akatoita mamiriyoni mashanu oparesheni. Kuvhiya kucharamba kuchiwedzera kurobhoti kana otomatiki, zvichidzikamisa gaka rekugadzira pakati pevavhiyi. Kekutanga, mutengo wemishonga uchatanga kudzikira. Mukuwedzera, mapepa ose uye kusakwanisa kwekutonga kuchaenda mushure mekushandiswa kwemagetsi ezvokurapa zvinyorwa. Mumakore gumi tichava nekuongorora nemhinduro nguva dzose pamusoro pezvatinofanira kuita maererano nekudya, mishonga, kuvhiyiwa kunowedzera kushanda uye mari yekurapa yakaderera.
Chimwe chimurenga - dzidzo?
Kudai taizotakura Socrates kuenda kunguva yedu, hapana chaaizonzwisisa kunze kwenzira iyo vana vedu vanodzidziswa nayo: vadzidzisi vakasiyana vanotaura kukirasi yevadzidzi 15 kusvika ku35. Hapana chikonzero chekuramba tichidzidzisa vana vedu nenzira imwechete yaiitwa makore 2500 apfuura, nokuti mudzidzi mumwe nomumwe ane unyanzvi uye zvaanofarira zvakasiyana. Zvino nyika zvayava kuchinja nokukurumidza kudaro, funga kuti kunosetsa sei kuti dzidzo inoganhurirwa munguva uye inomira pashure pokupedza chikoro kana kuti kuyunivhesiti. Dzidzo inofanira kuva muitiro unopfuurira, unoitika muupenyu hwose, uyewo unoshanda zvikuru.
NB kubva kumupepeti: Ndinogona kufungidzira kuti Socrates aizoshamisika sei kana akaona kuti kwedu . Kana zvisina tsarukano pasati paitika denda rekoronavirus rakanga richiri rakafanana nedzidzo yekirasi (horo yemusangano, vatauri-vadzidzisi, vadzidzi pamatafura, panzvimbo yemahwendefa evhu kana papyrus, malaptop uye mahwendefa, pachinzvimbo che "maieutics" kana "Socratic irony" kana nezviitiko zvinoshanda), izvo zvisina kushanduka zvakanyanya mumidziyo kubva panguva yekare, zvino hurukuro kuburikidza neZoom, imba yekusvuta uye kutaurirana paTeregiramu, mharidzo uye mavhidhiyo akarekodha emakirasi muakaundi yako yega ... Chokwadi, Socrates angadai asina kunzwisisa izvi. . Saka ramangwana rakatosvika - uye isu hatina kana kumbozviona. Uye denda re coronavirus rakatisundidzira kuti tichinje.
Izvi zvichashandura sei kugona kwedu?
Pamasaiti akaita seCoursera, semuenzaniso, purofesa akanakisa muindasitiri yake anopa makosi epamhepo kuvadzidzi zviuru mazana matatu. Zvine musoro zvakanyanya kuti mudzidzisi akanakisa adzidzise nhamba huru yevadzidzi! Vaya chete vanoda kuwana dhigirii vanobhadhara kuti vatore bvunzo. Izvi zvinoita kuti sisitimu iwedzere kunaka.
Zvakadini nezvikoro zvepuraimari nesekondari?
Parizvino, zvimwe zvikoro zviri kuyedza automated teaching system. Pano mudzidzisi haasisiri muchina wekutaura, asi murairidzi. Kudzidziswa kunoitwa uchishandisa software, iyo inozobvunza mibvunzo uye inogona kuenderana nevadzidzi. Kana mudzidzi akakanganisa, purogiramu inodzokorora mashoko acho nedzimwe nzira, uye pashure pokunge mudzidzi anzwisisa chinhu chiri chose ndipo inopfuurira kuenda pachinhano chinotevera. Vadzidzi mukirasi imwe chete vanoenda nenhanho yavo. Iyi haisi kuguma kwechikoro, nokuti kuwedzera kune ruzivo, unoda kudzidza kutaurirana nekubatana, nekuda kweizvi unoda kuve wakakomberedzwa nevamwe vana. Vanhu zvisikwa zvinogarisana nevamwe.
Chimwe chinhu?
Kubudirira kukuru kuchava mukuenderera mberi nedzidzo. Zvinodiwa zviri kuchinja zvakanyanya, mukutengesa makore mashoma apfuura zvaive zvakakosha kuziva maitiro ekugadzirisa kuoneka kwako mumainjini ekutsvaga (SEO). Nhasi, iwe unofanirwa kunzwisisa app store optimization (ASO). Unoziva sei? Tora makosi pamasaiti senge Udemy, mutungamiri mundima iyi. Iwo akagadzirwa nevashandisi uye obva awanikwa kune wese munhu ne $ 1 kusvika $ 10 ...
NB kubva kumupepeti: Kutendeseka, ini pachangu handina chokwadi chekuti makosi akagadzirwa nevashandisi pane varapi ipfungwa yakanaka kudaro. Nyika ikozvino yazadzwa nekufamba uye runako blogger. Kana vadzidzisi-mablogger vakawedzera mafashama, zvichanetsa kuwana zvechokwadi zvinobatsira uye zvehunyanzvi zvinhu mumurwi wezvinyorwa. kugadzira kosi inobatsira zvechokwadi pane zvakafanana , yakavakirwa kwete pamabhuku ezvinyorwa uye zvinyorwa, asi pakudzidzira uye mhosva dzakaedzwa. Zvakanaka, uye pane reki yaunosangana nayo - ungadai uri kupi pasina ivo mubasa rako uye kugona maturusi matsva.
Zvichitaurwa zviri nyore, nyika inoshanda ichachinja here?
Millennials (akaberekwa mushure me2000) anovenga kushanda kubva pa9 kusvika ku18, kushandira sabhuku, sabhuku pachake. Parizvino tiri kuona kukura kuri kuita bhizimusi muUS, kuchisimudzirwa nekuwanikwa kwenhamba yezvikumbiro zvebasa rekuda. Hafu yemabasa akagadzirwa kubva mukudzikira kwa2008 vanhu vanozvishandira kana avo vanoshandira Uber, Postmates (kuendesa chikafu kumba), Instacart (chikafu kuendesa kubva kuvavakidzani).
Aya masevhisi emunhu anowanikwa pakukumbira ...
Cosmetologist masevhisi, manicure, kugerwa bvudzi, chekufambisa. Ese masevhisi aya akavhurwa zvakare nekusanduruka kukuru. Aya mazano anobatawo echokwadi kune hurongwa, kugadzirisa, uye dhizaini masevhisi. Basa riri kuramba richiwedzera uye rinoda nguva shoma. Mamireniyumu anoshanda siku nesikati vhiki yekutanga uyezve maawa mashanu anotevera. Mari kwavari inzira yekuwana ruzivo rwehupenyu. Muna 2030 vachaita hafu yevanhu vanoshanda.
Tichafara here muna 2030?
Kwete hazvo, sezvo vanhu vachikurumidza kuchinjika kune zvakavapoteredza, chirongwa chinonzi hedonic adaptation. Nekudaro, isu ticharamba tiri vatenzi vemagumo edu. Tichashanda zvakawanda kana zvishoma sezvatinoda. Paavhareji, vanhu vachava noutano huri nani nedzidzo. Mutengo wezvinhu zvakawanda uchange wakadzikira, zvichikonzera kuvandudzwa kwakanyanya kwehupenyu.
Saka hakuzovi nekusaenzana kwevanhu?
Pane kutaura nezvekuwedzera kusaenzana, asi kutaura zvazviri pane kusangana kwemapoka evanhu. Muna 1900, vapfumi vakaenda kuzororo, asi kwete varombo. Nhasi imwe inobhururuka nejeti yega, imwe pa EasyJet, asi vose vanokwira ndege voenda kuzororo. 99% yevarombo vekuAmerica vane mvura nemagetsi, uye 70% yavo vane motokari. Paunotarisa zvinhu zvakaita sekufa kwevacheche uye makore ekurarama, kusaenzana kuri kuderera.
Zvakadini nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye mutengo wemagetsi, zvinogona kukanganisa zvakawanikwa izvi?
Nyaya iyi ichagadziriswa pasina mitemo uye kupindira kwehurumende. Tichaenda kuhupfumi husina marasha, asi nekuda kwezvikonzero zvehupfumi chete. Megawati imwe chete yesimba rezuva zvino inodhura isingasviki dhora, zvichienzaniswa nezana remadhora muna 100. Izvi zvakakonzerwa nekuvandudzwa kwemaitiro ekugadzira uye kubereka. Solar energy cost parity yakawanikwawo mune mamwe matunhu uko kuvaka zvidyarwa zvemagetsi kunodhura. Muna 1975, mutengo we solar kilowatt uchave wakaderera pane mutengo wemarasha kilowatt pasina rubatsiro. Kana izvi zvangoitika, makumi emabhiriyoni emadhora achaiswa mukuita izvi. Muna 2025, iyo yakakurumidza kuiswa kwesimba rezuva ichatanga. Mutengo we megawatt uchave wakadzikira zvakanyanya, izvo zvichazoderedza mutengo wezvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda uye kuvandudza hupenyu hwehupenyu. Ndine tariro.
Vashandisi vakanyoresa chete ndivo vanogona kutora chikamu muongororo. , Munogamuchirwa.
Unotenda kufanotaura kwaFabrice Grinde?
-
28,9%Hongu, ndinotenda28
-
18,6%Kwete, izvi hazvigone kuitika18
-
52,6%Ndakambovapo, Doc, hazvina kudaro.51
97 vashandisi vakavhota. 25 vashandisi vakaramba.
Source: www.habr.com