Kutanga, kotesheni (yakareba kwazvo, asi yakakosha, iyo yandinonokora muchidimbu):
“Sezvo nyika inopinda munguva itsva, yava kutsvikinyidzana zvikuru uye ichikurumidza. Kubudirira kwakanyanya kwakaitika mumaguta makuru akadai seLondon, Paris, New York neChicago ... nehafu yekuwedzera kunoitika mumakore makumi maviri ekupedzisira ezana remakore. Zvisinei, sezvo ava vanhu vakawanda (pamwe chete nepfuma yavo) vakatama kubva kune imwe nzvimbo kuenda kune imwe, dambudziko rakamuka. Nzira yekutanga yekufambisa yakagadzira huwandu hwemigumisiro, inozivikanwa pakati pevehupfumi sekunze kusina kunaka: izvi zvinosanganisira kuzara kwemotokari, kunyanyisa kukwira kweinishuwarenzi mitengo uye njodzi dzakawanda dzemugwagwa dzinokonzera vanhu vanouraya ... Dambudziko rekusvibiswa kwemhepo kubva mumhepo ine chepfu yamuka. , zvichityisidzira zvose zviri zviviri mhoteredzo noutano hwomunhu.
Unofunga kuti tiri kutaura nezvemotokari here? Hapana zvakadai. Tiri kutaura nezvemabhiza...Pakutanga kwezana remakore rechi200, kwaive nemabhiza angangosvika zviuru mazana maviri aishanda muNew York City chete - bhiza rimwechete kuvanhu gumi nevanomwe...
Ngoro dzinodhonzwa nemabhiza dzaizadza migwagwa, uye kana bhiza rakatyoka gumbo, raiwanzourayiwa pakarepo. Izvi zvakaita kuti pave nekumwe kunonotsa. Vazhinji varidzi vemabhiza vakatenga mari yeinishuwarenzi iyo (yekudzivirira pakubiridzira) yakapa kuurayiwa kwemhuka nemunhu wechitatu. Izvi zvaireva kuti muridzi aifanira kumirira mapurisa, chiremba wemhuka, kana ASPCA (American Society Against Cruelty to Animals) kuti vasvike. Asi kunyange mushure mekufa kwemhuka, kuungana hakuna kumira. “Mabhiza akafa akanga asingadzoreki zvikuru,” inonyora kudaro nyanzvi yoruzivo rwokugadzirwa kwezvinhu Eric Morris. “Somuuyo, vachengeti vedzimba vaiwanzomirira kutozosvikira zvitunha zvaora, zvadaro zvaigona kuchekwa nyore nyore kuita zvidimbu ndokubviswa.”
Ruzha rwezvingoro uye kurira kwemahwanda zvakashatirisa uye zvisingatyi vanhu zvokuti mune mamwe maguta zvairambidzwa kutasva mabhiza... Zvaiva nyore zvikuru kubatwa nebhiza kana ngoro... Muna 1900, 200 veNew Yorkers vakafa. nekuda kwetsaona dzinosanganisira mabhiza, kana imwe ye17 zviuru zvevagari vemo. Muna 2007, 274 New Yorkers vakafa nekuda kwetsaona dzemotokari (imwe mu30). Izvi zvinoreva kuti muna 1900, muNew Yorker anga afa nekaviri kufa nekurohwa nebhiza sezvaari kubva mutsaona yemotokari nhasi ...
Mamiriro ezvinhu akaipisisa aiva nendove. Bhiza repakati rinoburitsa makirogiramu gumi emupfudze pazuva. Mabhiza zviuru mazana maviri anoburitsa matani anopfuura zviuru zviviri. Zuva nezuva, mazuva manomwe pasvondo... Ndove yaipfachukira mumigwagwa yemuguta semazaya echando. Muchirimo, kunhuwa kwaikwira kumatenga. Pakasvika nguva yekunaya kwemvura, hova dzemupfudze webhiza dzakafashukira mumigwagwa ndokuzadza pasi pezvivako zvinogara vanhu... Tsvina yakanga iri mumigwagwa yaikuvadza zvikuru utano. Vakagovera nzvimbo yokuberekera mabhiriyoni enhunzi dzinoparadzira hosha dzakawanda dzinouraya. Makonzo akachera makomo emupfudze yezviyo zveoat zvisina kudyiwa uye zvakasara zvezvimwe zvikafu zvebhiza - izvo, nenzira, zvaive zvichiwedzera kudhura nekuda kwekukura kwehuwandu hwemabhiza uye kudiwa kwakabatana. Hapana aityira kudziya kwepasi panguva iyoyo, asi dai zvakaitika, bhiza raizove muvengi weruzhinji wekutanga nekuti manyowa anoburitsa methane, gasi rinopisa zvakanyanya.
Zvaiita sokuti nyika yakanga yasvika pakuva maguta aisagona kurarama aine mabhiza kana kuti asina.
Uye kamwe kamwe chinetso chacho chakanyangarika. Ikoku kwakanga kusiri nokuda kwechiito chehurumende kana kuti kupindira kwoumwari. Vagari vomuguta havana kuronga kufamba kwevanhu kana kuti kukurudzira kuzvidzora, vachiramba kushandisa simba remabhiza. Dambudziko rakagadziriswa kuburikidza nekugadzirwa kwekombiyuta ... Mabhiza akanyangarika kubva mumigwagwa nekuda kwekuuya kwetramu yemagetsi nemotokari. Nzira mbiri idzi dzakasiya marara mashoma uye dzakashanda zvakanyanya. Yakachipa kutenga uye nyore kutyaira pane bhiza, mota yakarumbidzwa semuponesi wezvakatipoteredza. Vagari vemaguta pasi rose vakazokwanisa kufema zvakanyanya vasina kubata mhino neminwe yavo uye kutangazve nzira yavo munzira yekufambira mberi.
Nyaya yacho, zvinosuruvarisa, haigumiri ipapo. Mhinduro dzakaponesa nyika muzana remakore rechiXNUMX dzakatanga kuunza njodzi muzana rinotevera: motokari dzose nemagetsi emagetsi ane kunze kwekunze. Carbon monoxide emissions kubva kumotokari dzinopfuura bhiriyoni uye zviuru zvemagetsi emagetsi emarasha mukati memakore zana ari kupisa mhepo yePasi. Sezvo marara emabhiza pane imwe nguva akatanga kutyisidzira budiriro, zvino chinhu chimwe chetecho chiri kuitika somuuyo wemibato yavanhu.
Martin Weitzman, nyanzvi yezvemhoteredzo yemhoteredzo paHarvard University, anofungidzira kuti kune mukana we5 muzana wokuti tembiricha yepasi rose ichakwira zvokuti “ichaparadza Planet Earth sezvatinoiziva.” Mune mamwe madenderedzwa - semuenzaniso, mune zvenhau, izvo zvinowanzoda kutaura nezve mamwe mamiriro eapocalyptic - manzwiro ekufungidzira anoenda zvakanyanya.
Izvi hazvifaniri kutishamisa. Kana mhinduro yedambudziko isiri pamberi pemeso edu, tinowanzo tenda kuti dambudziko harina mhinduro zvachose. Asi nhoroondo inotiratidza nguva nenguva kuti mafungiro akadaro haana kururama.
Hunhu ... hune kugona kunoshamisa kwekuwana zvigadziriso zvetekinoroji kumatambudziko anoita seasingagoneki, uye izvi zvingangoitika munyaya yekudziya kwepasi. Chiripo apa hachisi chekuti dambudziko idiki kana rakakura sei. Hungwaru hwevanhu ... hunogara huchishanduka. Nhau dzinotonyanya kukurudzira ndedzekuti zvigadziriso zvetekinoroji zvinowanzova nyore (... zvakachipa) kupfuura vaporofita venjodzi vangafungidzira.
... Zvinoshamisa kuti mutengo wemupfudze webhiza wakwira zvakare, zvekuti varidzi verimwe purazi muMassachusetts nguva pfupi yadarika vakatendeukira kumapurisa vachida kusungwa kwemuvakidzani aiunganidza mupfudze munharaunda yavo. Sekutaura kwemuvakidzani uyu, kusanzwisisana uku kwakakonzerwa nekuti aimbove muridzi wepurazi iri akamubvumira kuita izvi. Zvisinei, muridzi mutsva haana kubvumirana nazvo uye akakumbira muripo we$600 pandove yakaunganidzwa.
Ndiani akazove muvakidzani uyu - anoda mupfudze? Hapana mumwe kunze kwaMartin Weizmann, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi akaisa pamberi inotyisa fungidziro yekudziya kwepasirese.
“Makorokoto,” mumwe waaishanda naye akanyorera Weizmann nyaya yacho mumapepanhau. "Vazhinji vezvehupfumi vandinoziva vatengesi vehupenzi kunze kwenyika." Uye iwe, sezviri pachena, ndiwe wega mutengi pakati pavo."
Steven D. Levitt naStephen J. Dubner "Superfreakonomics" (zviperengo zvepakutanga uye zviratidzo zvemushanduri zvakachengetwa).
Heino hefty pseudo-epigraph kubva kuYunivhesiti yeChicago super-economist Steven Levitt.
Apocalypse yakadzimwa. Zvisinei, sezvimwe zvose zvingasarudzwa zve "kuguma kwenyika," kutanga nekuwanda kwevanhu uye kushayikwa kwezvokudya, uye kupera nekushayikwa kwezvinhu zvakasikwa kana mvura yekunwa.
Zviri pachena kuti sei maapocalypse echitendero ari kubviswa-mazuva avo akaiswa kakawanda zvokuti kuchema kunotevera kwe "mhumhi" hakuchanetsi chero munhu. Munguva iyi, denga rakarega kuva nzvimbo, uye chikonzero che "big bang" chakava chamwari. Kukurukura nyaya iyi, chaizvo, kusekesa uye kunyange "zvisina kunaka."
Asi dzidziso dzakakurumbira pamusoro pekushomeka kwemvura (uye "hondo dzemvura"), nezve kudziya kwepasi (uye "oh, zvinotyisa, zvinotyisa, munhu wese angangoenda kumapako") anonakidza kuparadzanisa.
Iko kukanganisa kukuru kwese kwese kwesainzi kana pseudo-sainzi apocalyptic kufanotaura kune chimwe chikanganiso chikuru. Vakadzoswa shure.
Paiva nemusayendisiti akadaro (akanaka uye akachenjera) - Thomas Malthus. Kubva pane data raainaro kubva MAKORE AKAPERA, akaisa rondedzero yeFUTURE CENTURIES kuti sezvo huwandu hwevanhu huri kuwedzera nekukurumidza kupfuura huwandu hwechikafu chakagadzirwa nemunhu, zvino ... kukundikana uye njodzi. (Izvi zvakanyanya kufanana ne "" kana data risingazivikanwe rakafuratirwa serisipo.)
Kunyange dai Malthus asina kuita chimwe chinhu muupenyu hwake (uye zvaakaita), taifanira kunge takamuonga nokuda kweichi chikanganiso chokufanotaura chete. Akangwara (pasina kunyomba) Malthus akararama pakutanga kwekuchinja kwemaindasitiri. Kunyange zvakadaro, zvisati zvatanga. Uye akanga asingagoni kufanoona kuuya kwematarakita, kana mafetireza, kana kudzora tupukanana, kana kuti nzira dzokubereka nadzo dzokuwedzera huwandu hwezvokudya. Pamberi peMalthus, kwemazana emakore nezviuru zvevanhu vairima nemabhiza uye vakaiswa mupfudze.
Zvisinei ... kufambira mberi kwesayenzi kwaiva (uye kune) uye kufanotaura kwaMalthus kwakave kusina kururama, kunyange zvazvo maungira avo achiri kufarirwa pakati pe "chikamu chevanhu vasina kudzidza." Nekudaro, semafungiro ekuti Zuva rinotenderera Pasi.
Chinhu chinosekesa ndechekuti ese anozotevera apocalyptic kufanotaura nemasayendisiti, pseudoscientists uye ecologists vanoita mhosho imwechete. Ivo havafungi nezve vector yekuvandudza kwesainzi uye tekinoroji kufambira mberi.
Zvakaoma kuvapa mhosva nokuda kweizvi, nokuti aya ndiwo maonero avo. Asi munhu anogona kupomerwa zviri nyore kuti anorova hysteria, inofananidzwa nehana yechitendero. Uye hysterics zvakajeka hazvikodzeri masayendisiti.
Sei vanhu vakadzidza, vanoziva nezve "Malthus kukanganisa" uye vakacherekedza kufambira mberi kwesainzi uye tekinoroji kwemazana emakore apfuura, kurova hysterics? Nechinangwa chei vanoongorora zvakatipoteredza vane hutsinye? Chii chiri shure kwekufanotaura kwavo, kunze kwenyaya yekuwana bhajeti kune inotevera hysteria kana "mubhadharo" kubva kumhizha?
Saka. Muzana remakore rechi20, kuderera kwezvicherwa, kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, uye kushomeka kwemvura zvakafanotaurwa. Kufanotaura kwese uku kwakaratidzirwa seapocalypses.
Zvakanaka ... kana nezvemaminerari, apocalypse iyo yakarongerwa 1970 ... zvakafanotaurwa hazvina kuzoitika. Zvose nekuda kwe "kukanganisa kwekare" kwaive mukuverenga kwaMalthus. Chekutanga, madhipoziti matsva akawanikwa uye akagadzirwa, nzira nyowani dzekubvisa dzakagadzirwa, uye matekinoroji ekuchengetedza simba akagadzirwa. Uye nhasi zviri pachena kuti kune akawanda mineral reserves kupfuura vanhu vachada ... nokuti vanovada zvishoma uye zvishoma. Magirobhu emwenje anopedza magetsi mashoma uye mashoma, dzimba neindasitiri zviri kuwedzera simba, uye dzimwe nzira dzekugadzira simba dziri kuvandudzwa (zuva, mhepo, gungwa, nezvimwewo). Tsvina inotumirwa kunodzokororwa.
Chaizvoizvo, izvi chete zvingave zvakakwana kudzima mamiriro ekunze apocalypse. Asi izvi hazvisati zvaitika. Uye izvi zvisinei nekuti mamiriro ekunze ePasi akachinja kakawanda, zvichienderana nenzvimbo yePasi maererano neZuva, chiitiko chezuva, mafungu egungwa, kufamba kwemaplate e lithospheric, uye basa rekuputika kwemakomo. Chiito chevanhu, chichienzaniswa nemasimba aya, chinongova chisingakoshi. Munhu, chokwadika, ane tapuro yakashata zvikuru pamusoro pemhoteredzo mumazana maviri amakore apfuura (zvisinei, magwenga mazhinji muMiddle East akaonekawo somuuyo wemibato yakaipa yavanhu vekare). Zvisinei ... izvi zvisina kunaka zvinosanganiswa nechitubu chesimba, uye ikozvino kuchinja. Uye izvi zvakataurwa pamusoro apa.
Saka chii chingave chakangwara? Tinofanira kushandisa mari pane hysterics yemamiriro ekunze masayendisiti uye vezvakatipoteredza, kana zvingave zvakanyanya kubatsira kuvaka akati wandei ezuva kana mhepo magetsi emagetsi nemari iyi, kutsigira shanduko yeindasitiri uye vanhu kubva mukati meinjini dzinopisa kusvika kune emagetsi mota nemotokari dzemagetsi? Zvisinei, ipapo "hysterics yezvakatipoteredza" haigoni kuwana mari.
Mhedziso. Havana kufarira mamiriro ekunze zvachose. Vanofarira mari.
Saka, semuenzaniso, Elon Musk ari kuita zvakanyanya kuderedza kukuvadza kune zvisikwa kubva mumabasa evanhu kupfuura vese vezvakatipoteredza vakasanganiswa uye hysterics vakabatana navo.
Iyo yazvino fashoni apocalypse ndeyemumvura. Uye hazvizoitiki zvakare. Uye chikonzero chakafanana. Kugadzirwa, kuve kwakachena nekuti kunobatsira zvakanyanya, kuchasvibisa mvura kushoma, simba richabva kunzvimbo dzakachena, nzvimbo dzekurapa dzichavandudzwa, matekinoroji ekuchengetedza mvura achagadzirwa (nekuti inobatsira), michina yakakosha ichaiswa munzvimbo dzakaoma. izvo zvinogadzira mvura yekunwa kubva mumhepo, munzvimbo dzemahombekombe, nezvimwe. Desalination uye kucheneswa ne reverse osmosis, nezvimwewo ichashandiswa munzvimbo ... uye apocalypse haizoitiki zvakare.
Mhedziso. Kana iwe usingaiti hysterical, asi funga uye kugadzirisa dambudziko, ipapo pachava nesimba rakakwana, mvura, zvokudya, ivhu, uye kazhinji zvose kune vose. Uye kuchave kuchine zvimwe. Uye zvisikwa zvichavawo zvakachena. Kazhinji, "zvose zvichave zvakanaka."
Kune wese akaverenga kusvika kumagumo - "Ndinokutendai zvikuru."
Mifananidzo: .
PS Vadiwa vaverengi, ndinokukumbirai kuti muyeuke kuti “Maitiro epomemic akakosha kupfuura nyaya yekupokana. Zvinhu zvinoshanduka, asi chimiro chinoumba budiriro. " (Grigory Pomerantz). Kana ini ndisina kupindura kune yako chirevo, saka pane chakakanganisika nemaitiro emapolia ako.
PS 2. Ndinokumbira ruregerero kumunhu wose akanyora mashoko ane musoro, asi handina kupindura. Kana iwe uchiri kuda kuwana mhinduro uye kukurukura chinyorwa, unogona kundinyorera meseji yakavanzika. ndinovapindura.
PS 3. Ini handichatombo taura pamusoro pekupokana nezve "kumwe kwemienzaniso" sekufungidzira, nekuti mune yakatova huru chinyorwa mimwe mienzaniso yakawanda haigone kupwisa vatsoropodzi vanovimba ne "umwe" nharo, sezvavasina kugutsikana. nehuwandu hwemienzaniso iri muchinyorwa “"kana kuti mizhinji yemienzaniso inopiwa mubhuku haigone kugutsikana"(tevedza chinongedzo - pfupiso pfupi uye yemagetsi vhezheni yekurodha), kunyangwe kuseri kweimwe yeaya gumi nemaviri kune mazana nezviuru zvemienzaniso kubva mumabasa evakakurumbira economist akanyorwa mubhuku.
PS 4. Ndapota kurukurai nharo dzaSteven Levitt naye pachake, uye kwete nemunyori wechinyorwa. Ruzivo rwekusangana rwunowanikwa paYunivhesiti yeChicago webhusaiti. Anopawo kupokana kwakawanda achifarira maonero ake mubhuku rakakurumbira resainzi "Superfreakonomics".
Source: www.habr.com
