Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Nomination: Nokuda kwekuvandudzwa kwedzidziso yezvibvumirano mune neoclassical economics. Iyo neoclassical kutungamira inoreva kurongeka kwevamiriri vehupfumi, inoshandisa zvakanyanya dzidziso yekuenzana kwehupfumi uye dzidziso yemutambo.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Oliver Hart naBengt Holmström.

Contract. Chii? Ini ndiri mushandirwi, ndine vashandi vakati wandei, ndinovaudza kuti muhoro wavo ucharongwa sei. Muzviitiko zvipi uye vachawana chii. Nyaya idzi dzinogona kusanganisira maitiro evamwe vavo.

Ndichapa mienzaniso mishanu. Vatatu vavo vanoenzanisira kuti kuedza kupindira kwakakonzera sei kuipa kwemamiriro ezvinhu.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

1. Vadzidzi vakayambuka mugwagwa munzvimbo dzakasiyana. Mota dzakadzikira, vadzidzi vakamhanya vachiyambuka, traffic yaive neimwe nzira "yakarongeka". Chaotic, asi zvese zvakanaka, hupenyu hunoenderera.

Makore akati kuti apfuura, chirevo chakagamuchirwa kuti zvaive zvakakodzera kuronga nzira imwe chete yevanofamba netsoka. Pane chikamu chemugwagwa 200-300 mamita. Kune fenzi dzakatenderedza uye vadzidzi vese vanoenda kune iyi ndima imwe chete. Nekuda kweizvozvo, vadzidzi vanovhara zvachose traffic kubva pa25-8 kusvika 45-9 kwemaminitsi makumi maviri nemashanu. Hapana motokari inogona kupfuura. Muenzaniso chaiwo we "negative contract".

2. Handisati ndawana chisimbiso chechokwadi. Factoid, chimwe chinhu icho munhu wese anoziva sechokwadi, asi muchokwadi, anogona kunge asina humbowo.

Kunyika yekumabvazuva vakatanga kurwisana nemakonzo. Vakatanga kubhadhara gonzo rakaurayiwa (“10 coins”). Zvadaro zvinhu zvose zvakajeka, munhu wose akasiya bhizinesi rake ndokutanga kubereka makonzo. (Vakadeedzera muvateereri kuti chiitiko ichi chakaitika kuIndia nemhungu (Cobra effect).)

3. Paive nemaokisheni maviri ekutengeswa kwemabhendi emafoni, kuEngland nekuSwitzerland. MuEngland, chirongwa ichi chakatungamirwa naRoger Myerson, mubairo weNobel. Akarayira kuti mutengo wekondirakiti wakanga uri anenge 600 pounds kumuRungu mumwe nomumwe. Uye muSwitzerland yakakundikana kutengeswa zvachose. Vakaita rangano ndokuwana mafranc makumi maviri pamunhu.

4. Handigone kutaura ndisingachemi, asi misodzi yatobuda. USE yaparadza dzidzo yechikoro. Yakagadzirirwa kurwisa huwori, kuitira kuti zvinhu zvose zvive zvakanaka uye zvakarurama. Kuti zvakapera sei, ndinogona kutaura kuti muzvikoro zvakawanda, kunze kwezvakanyanya kunaka, mune kudzidziswa kweUnified State Examination, zvidzidzo zvinomiswa, uye kudzidzisa kunoenderera. Vadzidzisi vanoudzwa zvakananga kuti: “Muhoro wako uye kuvapo kwako kuchikoro kunotsamira pakuti vadzidzi vako vanopasa sei bvunzo.”

Zvakafanana nezvinyorwa uye scientometrics.

5. Mutero wemitero. Kune mienzaniso yakawanda yakabudirira uye yakawanda isina kubudirira. Mazhinji emushumo achange akazvipira kune iyi nyaya.

Mechanism dhizaini

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Ndakaona mapoka akawanda akasiyana ekufamba, kusanganisira makuru - 30-40-50 vanhu. Nekurongeka kwakarongeka, iyi ndiyo unit yekurwisa, inorarama sechipenyu chimwe. Mumwe nemumwe ane basa rake, basa rake. Uye mune dzimwe nzvimbo - yakasununguka mess.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Nzira yekugadzirisa sei dambudziko rekutonga, kana pane vashoma vatongi?

Dambudziko iri rinowanzoitika nenzira dzakasiyana. Haina kugara yagadziriswa zvinobudirira.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Muenzaniso.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Pane nzira yepasi pevhu ine shanduko kuenda kuzvitima. 20 turnstiles uye imwe yekutarisa guard. Uye kubva kurutivi urwu, vanhu gumi vane dombo rimwe chete vakatsvikinyidzana mukona. Chitima chinosvika uye munhu wese, sekunge ainzwa, akadonha. Murindiri anobata imwe yacho, asi vamwe vose vanomhanya. Kana tikatarisa mamiriro ezvinhu aya kubva pakuona kwedzidziso yemutambo, zvino iyi ndiyo mamiriro ezvinhu umo kune maviri akasiyana zvachose equilibrium scenarios.

Mune imwe, hapana anoenda uye munhu wese anoziva kuti hapana anoenda, hapana anoedza, ichi chiitiko chekuzvitsigira. Iyo chiyero, munhu wese ari kuita "chaizvo" chinhu. Uye mumwe murume anodzivisa boka rose.

Asi pane kumwe kuenzana. Munhu wese ari kumhanya. Kana iwe uchitenda kuti munhu wese ari kumhanya, saka mukana wekuti iwe uchabatwa ndeye 1/15, unogona kutora mukana. Kuve nesarudzo mbiri idambudziko hombe kune vemitambo theorists. Zvichida hafu yedzidziso yemutambo yakazvipira kubata mamiriro akadai. Nzira yekuisa sei pfungwa muhuropi hwehares kuitira kuti vatye "kutsvedza"?

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Uyu ndiJohn Nash. Akaratidza dzidziso yakajairika pamusoro pekuvapo kwekuenzanisa mumitambo ine yakabatana mhinduro. Apo chigumisiro chinobva kwete chete pane zvisarudzo zvako, asiwo pane zvisarudzo zvevamwe vatori vechikamu vose.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Mimwe mienzaniso yekuenzanisa.

chii деньги? Une bepa risinganzwisisike muhomwe yako. Iwe wakashanda uye kune zvimwe zvezvimedu zvepepa (nhamba dziri muakaundi). Naivo pachavo havarevi chinhu. Unogona kubatidza moto wodziya. Asi unotenda kuti vanoreva chimwe chinhu. Unoziva kuti uchaenda kuchitoro uye vanogamuchirwa. Uyo anogamuchira anotendawo kuti achagamuchirawo kubva kwaari. Kutenda kwakawanda kwekuti zvidimbu zvepepa izvi zvine kukosha ndeyekugarisana kwevanhu uko, nguva nenguva, kunoparadzwa kana hyperinflation ikaitika. Zvadaro kubva mumamiriro ezvinhu apo munhu wose anotenda mumari, inoshanduka kuva mamiriro ezvinhu apo munhu wose asingatendi mumari.

Kurudyi- nekuruboshwe-kurudyi traffic. Dzimwe nyika dzakasiyana, asi iwe unotevera mitemo iyi.

Sei vanhu vachienda kufizikisi uye tekinoroji? Nokuti pane chivimbo chokuti vanodzidzisa zvakanaka ikoko. Pane chivimbo chekuti vamwe vadzidzi vakasimba vachaenda ikoko. Fungidzira kuti imwe kambani yevana vechikoro vakasimba zvikuru yakangoerekana yabvuma ndokuenda kuyunivhesiti isina simba. Anobva asimba.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Murindi angabvisa sei dzikamo yakaipa?

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Izvo zvinodikanwa kuverenga ese hares zvinonzwika uye kuzivisa kuti kunyangwe ndiani anosvetuka, ivo vanobata hushoma nenhamba.

Ngatiti imwe kambani yakasarudza kusvetuka. Ipapo uya ane nhamba yakaderera anoziva zvechokwadi kuti achabatwa uye haasvetuka. Equilibrium apo tinofungidzira nemazvo zviito zvevamwe vanhu nezviito zvedu, izvo vamwe vanofungidzira pamusoro pedu. Mumamiriro ezvinhu e "kunyora zvinonzwika", kuenzana kune imwezve pfuma yekugadzikana. Inopokana ne "coordination/cooperation". Ndiko kuti, muchiyero ichi hazvibviri kunyange kubvumirana kuti panguva imwechete imwe nhamba yevanhu ichachinja maitiro avo kuitira kuti semugumisiro munhu wose anzwe ari nani.

Kana iwe ukagadzira mitemo yakaoma uye kambani isingakwanise kuinzwisisa, saka haugone kutarisira kuti vazvibate zvinoenderana neNash equilibrium. Vachaita zvisarudzo zvisina tsarukano.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Ngatitorei kuti tinorambidzwa (kurambidzwa kwemasangano) "kunyora zvinonzwika". Mazano edu anofanira kunge ari akaenzana (asingazivikanwe). Asi tinogona kutaura nezve "coin". Kana chimwe chinhu chikadonha - ndinoita chinhu chimwe, kana chimwe chikadonha - ndinoita chechipiri.

Basa rakakomba. Yakagadzirwa uye yakadzidza makore makumi maviri apfuura. Hapana aibhadhara mutero. Takaedza kuronga nzira iyi uye nenzira iyo. Hapana purofiti, chiokomuhomwe… Vakuru vemitero vakatendeukira kuyunivhesiti yandinoshanda zvishoma, kuna maneja wangu. Tose takagadzira dambudziko nenzira inotevera. Kune n maindasitiri, imwe neimwe ine inspector yayo, asi mune dzimwe % dzezviitiko anodyidzana. % munhu wese anozvisarudzira. x20, x1…xn.
x=0 zvinoreva kuti inspector afunga kuvimbika. x=1 inotora chiokomuhomwe muzviitiko zvese.

Xs inogona kuzivikanwa nezviratidzo zvisina kunanga, asi isu hatigone kuzvishandisa mudare. Zvichienderana neruzivo urwu, unofanirwa kugadzira nzira yekusimbisa.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Inogona kurerutswa kune chokwadi chekuti kune cheki imwe chete, asi nechirango chakakura kwazvo. Uye isu tinopa mukana kune iyi bvunzo. Mukana wokuti ndiuye kwauri ndouyu, uye kwauri ndouyu. Uye aya mabasa kubva ku x. Uye mari yacho haipfuure imwe. Izvo zvine hunyanzvi, mune zvimwe zviitiko kusatarisa zvachose uye kuvavimbisa izvi.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

p imepu yen-dimensional cube museti yezvese zvingangogoverwa. Izvo zvinodikanwa kunyoresa kuhwina kwavo, kuti unzwisise kuti ingani mumwe wavo achagashira pavanosarudza mune ipi% yemakesi kutora chiokomuhomwe.

bi ndiyo "chiokomuhomwe chakanyanya" cheindasitiri (kana iwe ukatora chiokomuhomwe panzvimbo yemutero kwese kwese).

Murango wacho unobviswa pamukana wauchauya nawo. Kubva chii? Kutanga, unofanira kuzviongorora. Asi handizvo zvese, cheki inogona kumhanya mukesi kana zvese zvaive zvakachena. Chimiro chakareruka, asi kuoma kwakavigwa mu "p".

Tine mutauro usingawanikwe mune mamwe mapazi esvomhu: xi. Iyi seti yemhando dzese kunze kwangu. Idzi ndidzo sarudzo dzakaitwa nevamwe vese. Uyu ndiwo mutoro wevanhu vose.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Zvino mubvunzo ndouyu: Ndeipi pfungwa yekuenzana yatinofunga kuti vachave?

Muma90s, pakanga pane puncture yakanyanya. Varongi vecheki vakazivisa kumunhu wose kuti vasina kusimba zvikuru vaizorangwa. Achaedzwa.

Ko fungidziro yemamiriro ezvinhu aya ichange yakaita sei?

Vanhu vakaita mitemo vaifunga kuti paizova nekudyidzana kwakazvimirira. Iyo chete yakaenzana ndeye zero dzese. Uye muhupenyu chaihwo hwaive 100% Sei?

Mhinduro ndeyokuti chiyero hachina kugadzikana kune kurangana.

Takatanga kukwenya maturnips edu.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Muenzaniso unotungamirira mutoro wemunhu. Ngatimbofungidzirai mamiriro ezvinhu akashata kuti faindi yepamutemo ishoma pane muripo wechiokomuhomwe. Kana inspector akagara muindasitiri “yemafuta” zvokuti muripo wake wechiokomuhomwe wakakura kupfuura faindi, chimwe chinhu chingaitwa here? Chirango hachigoni kutorwa kanopfuura kamwe chete.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Ndinoziva kuti inspector achabhadhara uye achange ari mutema. Asi ndinogona kuvimbisa kusakutarisisa zvachose kana mwero wako wehuwori usina kupfuura 30%. Chii chinobatsira zvikuru?

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Vemhando yepamusoro vaitova nazvo.

Triple mwero wehuwori wadzikira.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

abstract situation. 4 vanhu. Chiokomuhomwe chiri pasi pemuripo.

Kana iwe uchivimba nezvibvumirano zvega, "hauzoisa kune zero" munhu wese. Asi ini ndinogona kuunza munhu wese ku zero nezano rekuita pamwe chete.

Ini zvakafanana ndinotumira cheki ine mikana yakaenzana kwete kune yakanyanya, asi kune isiri-zero. Makororo ese ane asiri zero muzana - mumwe nemumwe achagashira cheki ine mukana we1/4. Ini handitombo shandura mukana zvichienderana nema x.

Ipapo hapana kuenzana kunze kwe zero. Uye hapagoni kuva nekubatana zvakare.

Uye kana pasina chete tacit collusion, asiwo kuendeswa kwemari, ipapo dzidziso yemutambo inokundikana zvachose. Pane humbowo hwakasimba.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Boka rose remazano rakagadzirwa, iro rinoitwa kuburikidza nekubatana kwakasimba-resistant Nash equilibrium.

Isu tinopa mwero akati wandei wekushivirira kune huori. z1 - zvachose kushivirira chiyero, zororo - chiyero chekusagadzikana chinowedzera. Uye kune yega yega nhanho inogovera mukana wekusimbisa. Iyo formula inoita seizvi:

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

λ1 - mukana wekuedzwa padanho rekutanga rekushivirira - yakakamurwa zvakaenzana pakati peavo vakapfuura, nekuwedzera, λ2 inokamurwa pakati peavo vakapfuura yechipiri chikumbaridzo, zvichingodaro.

Ndakaratidza theorem inotevera makore gumi nemashanu apfuura.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Iri zano rakashandiswa pamberi pangu, senzira yekugovanisa mari.

Alexey Savvateev: Nzira yekurwisa uori nerubatsiro rwemasvomhu (Nobel Prize muEconomics ye2016)

Zvibvumirano zvinoda mari. Yakagadzirwa-yakanyatso kudyidzana maitiro ihombe mari saver, dzimwe nguva. Kuchengetedza nguva.

Collective responsibility inoshanda. Kubatanidza munhu neboka kunoshanda.

Sezvandakaita report kuMinistry of Internal Affairs.

Ndakasvika, maiva nemapurisa anenge 40 ezvinzvimbo zvakasiyana-siyana, vakateerera, vakatarisana, vachizevezerana, uye ipapo mukuru wacho akauya kwandiri ndokuti: “Aleksey, waita hako, zvinonakidza kuteerera munhu ane chido. sainzi yake ... asi izvi hazvinei nechokuita nechokwadi. "

Nekuyedza vakacherekedza vakuru veRussia vane huori vanoita zvakasiyana pane vakacherekedza veAmerica. Unoziva chii musiyano? MuRussia, paanotanga kutora chiokomuhomwe, haasisiri mumiriri wehupfumi anowedzera purofiti yake zvine musoro. [Kuombera]

Munhu anotanga kutora chiokomuhomwe kusvika kumagumo, asingambotauri chinhu. Anofanira kubatwa oiswa mujeri, ndiyo sainzi yese.

Спасибо.



Source: www.habr.com

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