Pakati peavo vanoverenga chinyorwa ichi, hongu, kune nyanzvi dzakawanda. Uye, hongu, munhu wese anonyatsoziva muminda yavo uye ane ongororo yakanaka yetariro yeakasiyana matekinoroji uye kukura kwavo. Panguva imwecheteyo, nhoroondo (iyo "inodzidzisa kuti haidzidzisi chinhu") inoziva mienzaniso yakawanda apo nyanzvi dzakanyatsoita fungidziro dzakasiyana uye dzakapotsa nemuganho wakakura kwazvo:
- βNharembozha ine zvimhingamupinyi zvakawanda zvekuti haingatariswe zvakakomba senzira yekufambisa mashoko. Mudziyo wacho hauna kukosha kwatiri,β nyanzvi dzakanyora kudaro. , yakazove kambani hombe yeteregirafu muna 1876.
- βRadio haina ramangwana. Kurema-kupfuura-ndege hazvigoneke. X-rays ichave manyepo,β akadaro muna 1899, uye munhu anogona, hongu, kuseka kuti masayendisiti eBritish akanga achizunungusa kumashure muzana remakore rechiXNUMX, asi isu tichave tichiyera tembiricha muKelvin kwenguva yakareba, uye hapana chikonzero chekukahadzika kuti ishe anoremekedzwa aive akanaka. nyanzvi yefizikisi.
- "Ndiani gehena anoda kunzwa vatambi vachitaura?" akadaro nezve talkies , uyo akatanga Warner Brothers muna 1927, mumwe wenyanzvi dzemafirimu dzenguva iyoyo.
- "Hapana chikonzero nei munhu achida komputa yepamba," , muvambi weDigital Equipment Corporation muna 1977, nguva pfupi isati yasimuka makombiyuta epamba...
- Mazuva ano, hapana chakachinja: "Hapana mukana wekuti iPhone iwane chikamu chakakosha chemusika," Microsoft CEO akanyora muUSA Nhasi. muna Kubvumbi 2007 pamberi pekukunda kwekusimuka kwema smartphones.
Mumwe anogona kuseka nemufaro kufembera uku dai muranda wako anozvininipisa, semuenzaniso, asina kunge akanganisa zvakanyanya mumunda wake. Uye dai ndisina kuona kuti akawanda sei, nyanzvi dzakawanda dzakakanganisa. Kazhinji, pane yekare "izvi hazvina kumboitika, uye hezvino zvakare." Uye zvakare. Uye zvakare. Uyezve, nyanzvi uye nyanzvi vakatongerwa kukanganisa Muzviitiko zvakawanda. Kunyanya kana zvasvika kune iwo madamn exponential process.
Ah ini, muratidziri uyu
Dambudziko rekutanga nemaexponential process nderekuti kunyangwe kuziva kuti vanokura nekukurumidza sei (nenguva imwe chete yenguva maparamita avo anoshandura nhamba imwechete yenguva), padanho rezuva nezuva zvakaoma zvikuru kufungidzira kukura kwakadaro. Muenzaniso wekare: kana tikafambisa nhanho imwe kuenda mberi, zvino mumatanho makumi matatu tichafamba mamita makumi matatu, asi kana nhanho imwe neimwe ichikura zvakanyanya, ipapo mumatanho makumi matatu tichatenderera pasi rose ka30 ("Kane makumi maviri nenhanhatu, Karl !!! β) pamwe ne equator:
Source:
Mubvunzo wevagadziri: ndechipi chinogara chiripo chatinosimudza kune simba mune iyi nyaya?
ReplyIzvo zvinogara zvakaenzana ne2, i.e. kupeta kaviri padanho rega rega.
Kana chirongwa chichikura zvakanyanya, chinokonzeresa shanduko huru dzinokurumidza kuoneka nemeso. Muenzaniso wakaisvonaka unopiwa na . Muna 1900, pana Fifth Avenue muNew York, zvakanga zvakaoma kuona motokari iri yoga pakati pengoro dzinodhonzwa nebhiza:
Uye makore gumi nematatu chete gare gare, mumugwagwa mumwechete, iwe haugone kuona imwe ngoro inodhonzwa nebhiza pakati pemotokari:
Isu tinoona mufananidzo wakafanana, semuenzaniso, nemafoni. Nokia, iyo yakatasva vhezheni imwe uye yaive mutungamiri kwenguva yakareba nemuganho wakafara, asi yaisakwanisa kupinda mune rinotevera wave uye yakapotsa yarasikirwa nemusika (tarisa nevatungamiri vemusika negore) inodzidzisa zvikuru.
Vese nyanzvi dzemakomputa vanoziva , iyo yakanyatsogadzirirwa transistors uye yave ichokwadi kwemakore makumi mana. Mamwe makomuredhi anoigadzira kuti vacuye machubhu uye michina yemagetsi uye vanoti yakashanda kwemakore zana nemakumi maviri. Zvakanakira kuratidza exponential process ine logarithmic scale scale, painozove (inenge) mutsara uye zviri pachena kuti generalization yakadaro ine kodzero yekuvepo:
Kwakabva: Izvi uye maviri anotevera magirafu kubva
Pachiyero chemutsara, kukura kunotaridzika seizvi:
Uye pano isu zvishoma nezvishoma tinosvika pakuvandira kwechipiri kweexponential process. Kana kukura kwave kwakadaro kwemakore 120, izvi zvinoreva here kuti chiyero chedu chekuwedzera chicharamba chakafanana kwemamwe makore gumi?
Mukuita zvinobuda kuti kwete. Mune chimiro chayo chakachena, chiyero chekukura kwekombuta chave chichiderera kwemakore akati wandei, izvo zvinotibvumira kutaura nezve "rufu rwemutemo waMoore":
Source:
Uyezve, zvinonakidza kuti iyi curve haigone kutwasanudza chete, asi zvakare kukwira nesimba idzva. Muranda wenyu anozvininipisa . Hongu, pachava nemamwe masvomhu (asina kururama neural network avo), asi pakupedzisira, kana isina kururama abacus uye mechanical calculator yakawedzera chikero kusvika kumakore 120, ipapo neural accelerators yakakodzera ipapo. Zvisinei, isu tinokanganisa.
Zvakakosha kunzwisisa icho exponential kukura kunogona kumira nekuda kwehunyanzvi, hwemuviri, hwehupfumi uye hwemagariro zvikonzero (rondedzero haina kukwana). Uye iyi ndiyo yechipiri huru yekuvandira yeexponential process - kunyatsofanotaura nguva iyo iyo curve inotanga kusiya exponential. Zvikanganiso mumativi ese ari maviri zvinowanzoitika pano.
Zvose:
- Yekutanga yakahwandira yekukura exponential ndeyekuti chiratidzo chiri kukura zvisingatarisirwi nekukurumidza kunyangwe kune nyanzvi. Uye kurerutsa exponential kukanganisa kwechinyakare kunodzokororwa kakawanda. Sezvakataurwa nenyanzvi chaidzo dzakasimba makore zana apfuura: βMatangi, varume, ifashoni, asi vatasvi vemabhiza ndeekusingaperi!β
- Dambudziko rechipiri nekukura kweexponential nderekuti pane imwe nguva (dzimwe nguva mushure memakore makumi mana kana 40) inopera, uye hazvisi nyore kunyatsofanotaura kuti ichaguma rini. Uye kunyangwe mutemo waMoore, parufu rwake vatori venhau vazhinji vehunyanzvi vakasiya mahwanda avo, . Uye hazvizoiti sezvakakwana!
Exponential maitiro uye kutorwa kwemusika
Kana tikataura nezve shanduko dzinooneka dzakatitenderedza uye pamusika, zvinonakidza kuona kuti akasiyana matekinoroji akakunda sei musika. Izvo zvakanyanya nyore kuita izvi uchishandisa muenzaniso weUnited States, uko kweanopfuura makore zana marudzi akasiyana ehuwandu hwemusika akachengetwa zvakaringana:
Source:
Zvinonakidza uye zvinodzidzisa kuona kuti kugovaniswa kwedzimba dzine nharembozha kwakakura sei zvishoma nezvishoma, ndokuzodonha zvakanyanya nekota mumakore apfuura. . Chikamu chedzimba dzine magetsi chakakurawo, asi chakawa zvishoma: vanhu vakanga vasina kugadzirira kusiya magetsi, kunyange pakange pasina mari yakakwana. Uye kupararira kweredhiyo yekumba hakuna kumbonzwa dambudziko guru rehupfumi zvachose; munhu wese aifarira nhau dzichangoburwa. Uye, kusiyana nefoni, magetsi kana motokari, redhiyo haina mari yekushandisa. Nenzira, kukwira kwemotokari dzemunhu, iyo yakakanganiswa neKuderera Kukuru, yakadzorerwa chete mushure memakore makumi maviri, nhare dzefoni dzakadzorerwa mushure memakore gumi, uye magetsi edzimba - mushure me20.
Zvinonyatsooneka kuti kupararira kwema air conditioners, microwave ovheni, makomputa uye mafoni aikurumidza kupfuura kupararira kwehunyanzvi hutsva kare. Kubva pachikamu che10% kusvika ku70%, kukura kwaiwanzoitika mumakore gumi chete. Kuchinja-kwe-the-century technologies yaiwanzotora makore anopfuura 10 kuti iwane kukura kwakafanana. Inzwa musiyano!
Chinhu chinosetsa munyori pachake. Funga kuti michina yekuwachisa uye zvekuomesera zvipfeko zvakakura zvakangofanana kubva kuma60s. Zvinosetsa kuti ekupedzisira anenge asingazivikanwe pakati pedu. Uye kana muU.SA, kubva pane imwe nguva zvichienda mberi, vaiwanzotengwa vari vaviri vaviri, saka vashanyi vedu vanowanzobvunza mubvunzo uyu: "Sei uchida machina maviri ekugeza?" Iwe unofanirwa kupindura nekutarisa kwakakomba kuti iyo yechipiri yakachengetwa, kana iyo yekutanga ikaputsika.
Uyewo teerera kune chikamu chinodonha chekugeza michina. Panguva iyoyo, mbatya dzeveruzhinji dzakapararira, kwawaigona kuuya, kurodha mbatya mumushini, wogeza woenda. Cheap. Zvinhu zvakafanana zvichiri kunyanya kuwanikwa muUnited States. Uyu ndiwo muenzaniso wemamiriro ezvinhu apo bhizinesi rebhizimisi remusika chaiwo rinoshandura chiyero chekupinda kwekombiyuta uye chimiro chekutengesa (inodhura nyanzvi vandal-proof machines inotengesa zviri nani).
Kukwidziridzwa kwemaitiro kunonyanya kuoneka mumakore achangopfuura, apo kupinza kwemazhinji tekinoroji kwakava "pakarepo" nezviyero zvekutanga kwezana ramakore rechi20 (mumakore 5-7):
Source: (graphic pane iyi link inopindirana!)
Panguva imwecheteyo, kukurumidza kusimuka kweimwe tekinoroji kunowanzo kudonha kweimwe. Kusimuka kweredhiyo kwaireva kudzvanywa pamusika wepepanhau, kukwira kwemaovheni emicrowave kwakaderedza kudiwa kwemavheni egasi, nezvimwe. Dzimwe nguva makwikwi acho akanga akananga zvikuru, somuenzaniso, kukwira kwezvinorekodha kaseti zvakaderedza zvikuru kudikanwa kwezvinyorwa zvevinyl, uye kukwira kweCD kwakaderedza kudiwa kwemakaseti. Uye rukova rwakavauraya vese nekukura kwekuparadzirwa kwedhijitari yemimhanzi, mari yeindasitiri yakadonha nekanopfuura ka2 (girafu rakakomberedzwa neinochema furemu dema):
Source:
Saizvozvo, nhamba yemifananidzo yakatorwa iri kukura zvakanyanya, uyezve, munguva pfupi yapfuura neshanduko kuenda kudhijitari, chiyero chekukura chakawedzera zvakanyanya. Nokudaro, "rufu" rwemifananidzo yeanalogue yaiva "pakarepo" nemitemo yezvakaitika kare:
Source:
Yakazara nedhirama , iyo yakagadzira zvinokatyamadza kamera yedhijitari uye yakapotsa kukwira kunoshamisa kwekutora mifananidzo yedhijitari, inodzidzisa zvakanyanya. Asi chinhu chikuru chinodzidziswa nenhoroondo ndechekuti hapana chainodzidzisa. Nokudaro, mamiriro acho achazvidzokorora zvakare uye zvakare. Kana iwe uchitenda nhamba - nekukasira.
Zvose:
- Yakawanda yekufembera inobatsira inogona kuwanikwa nekudzidza kukurumidza uye kudzikira kwemisika mukati memakore zana apfuura.
- Chiyero chekuvandudza chinowedzera paavhareji, izvo zvinoreva kuti nhamba yekufungidzira kwenhema ichawedzera. Chenjeraβ¦
Handei kunodzidzira
Iwe, hongu, unofunga kuti izvi zvese zviri nyore, zvinonzwisisika, uye, kazhinji, kutora zvese izvi mukufunga kwekufanotaura hakuna kuoma. Iwe uri pasina ... Zvino mafaro anotanga ... Buckle up?
Munguva ichangopfuura, Igor Sechin, mutungamiriri mukuru weRosneft, akataura paSt. Petersburg International Economic Forum, apo, zvikurukuru, akati: β" Pane chero munhu anokahadzika kuti Sechin inyanzvi mumunda wake? Ndinofunga kwete.
Panguva imwecheteyo, mumakore achangopfuura, chikamu cheimwe simba chakakura neinenge 1% pagore, uye kukura kwechikamu kwakawedzera:
Source: (iyi nzira yekuverenga yakasarudzwa - isina hukuru-hukuru hwemvura, sezvo inonyatso guma mune yazvino 12%).
Uye zvino - dambudziko rechitatu giredhi. Pane kukosha kwekuti muna 3 yakanga yakaenzana ne2017% uye iri kukura ne12% pagore. Mugore ripi ichasvika 1%? Muna 16? Wafunga zvakanaka here shamwari yangu yechidiki? Ziva kuti nekupindura "muna 2040" tiri kuita chikanganiso chekufungidzira. Zvinoita zvine musoro kufunga nezve exponential chimiro chemaitiro uye kuita echinyakare fungidziro nhatu:
- "tarisiro" yakapihwa kukurumidza kwebudiriro,
- "avhareji" - zvichibva pafungidziro yekuti chiyero chekukura chichafanana negore rakanakisa mumakore mashanu apfuura.
- uye "pessimistic" - zvichibva pakufungidzira kuti chiyero chekukura chichave paavhareji chakafanana negore rakaipisisa mumakore mashanu apfuura.
Uyezve, kunyangwe zvinoenderana neavhareji yekufungidzira, 16.1% ichave yave kuwanikwa muna 2020, i.e. gore rinouya:
Kwakabva: kuverenga kwemunyori
Kuti unzwisise zviri nani (yeexponential process), tinopa iwo magirafu akafanana pachiyero che logarithmic:
Ivo vanoratidza kuti avhareji mamiriro akajairika, kunyangwe ukatarisa kubva 2007. Pakazara, kukosha kwakafanotaurwa kwe2040 kungangoitika gore rinouya, kana zvakanyanya mugore.
Kutaura chokwadi, Sechin haasi iye ega "akanganisa" seizvi. Semuenzaniso, vashandi vemafuta eBP (British Petroleum) vanoita fungidziro yegore negore, uye ivo vari kutoitwa kuti, sezvo vave vachifanotaura kwemakore, ivo zvakare uye havafungi nezve exponentiality yegadziriro ("Derivative? Aiwa. hauna kunzwa!β). Naizvozvo, ivo vaifanira kusimudza fungidziro yavo gore rega rega kwemakore mazhinji:
Source:
Pedyo neSechin kufanotaura (mapato ane vashandi vemafuta anorema, tarisa mapaipi pamudzi wechikamu cheRussia chesaiti). Ivo, mumusimboti, havafungi nezve exponential chimiro chemaitiro, izvo zvinotungamira hurongwa hwekukanganisa kwehukuru kwemakore manomwe, uye vanodzokorora chikanganiso ichi zvakarongeka:
Source: (saiti yacho pachayo , nenzira, zvakanaka kwazvo)
Kufembera kwavo kunotaridzika kusekesa nedata razvino (iwe unoverengawo "zvakanaka, vachazomira riini !!!" mumacurves avo?):
Source:
Izvi zvechokwadi zvinopesana, asi kana uchifanotaura maitiro mazhinji, zvinonyanya kushanda kuti tifunge kwete mutsara wekufanotaura kwenguva yakapfuura uye kwete mutsara wekufanotaura kunoenderana nekubuda kwazvino, asi shanduko mukumhanya kwemaitiro. Izvi zvinopa mhedzisiro chaiyo yemaitiro akafanana:
Source:
Muzvinyorwa zvemutauro weChirungu, kunyanya mukuongorora kwebhizinesi, chidimbu CAGR chinogara chichishandiswa ( - chinongedzo chinopihwa kuWiki yemutauro weChirungu, uye hunhu hwekuti hapana chinyorwa chinowirirana mumutauro weRussian Wikipedia). CAGR inogona kududzirwa se "yakasanganiswa yekukura kwegore." Inoverengwa maererano nefomu
apo t0 - gore rokutanga, tn - gore rekupedzisira, uye V(t) - kukosha kweparameter, zvichida kuchinja maererano nemutemo we exponential. Kukosha kunoratidzwa sechikamu uye zvinoreva kuti vangani muzana imwe kukosha (kazhinji imwe musika) inokura pamusoro pegore.
Kune yakawanda mienzaniso paInternet pamaitiro ekuverenga CAGR, semuenzaniso, muGoogle Docs uye Excel:
- (yakakodzera chinyorwa cheRussia )
Ngatiitei tenzi kirasi pfupi pasi pe motto "ngatibatsirei Sechin", tichitora data kubva kukambani yemafuta BP (seyero yakaderera). Kune avo vanofarira, iyo data pachayo inowanikwa , unogona kuzvikopa iwe pachako uye kuverenga zvakasiyana. Pasi rose, chizvarwa chinogadzirwazve chiri kukura nekukurumidza:
Kwakabva: Pano uye mberi pamagirafu matema, kuverenga kwemunyori
Chikero chacho chinonzi logarithmic, uye zviri pachena kuti matunhu ese ane exponential kukura (izvi zvakakosha!), Mazhinji ane exponential acceleration. Sezvaitarisirwa, vatungamiri iChina nevavakidzani vayo, vakunda North America neEurope. Zvinonakidza kuti iyo penultimate - Middle East - ndeimwe yenzvimbo dzinogadzira mafuta zvakanyanya pasirese, uye ine yepamusoro CAGR pakati pevose (44% pamakore mashanu apfuura (!)). Hazvishamisi kuona kurongeka kwehukuru huchiwedzera mumakore matanhatu, uye zvichibva pane zvakataurwa kubva kuvakuru vavo, ivo vanofunga kuenderera mberi mune imwecheteyo. Aichimbova gurukota remafuta eSaudi Arabia nekuchenjera akanyevera vaaishanda navo kuOPEC kare muna 5 kuti: βNguva yeMatombo haina kupera nekuti pakanga pasisina matombo,β uye zvinoita sekuti vakafunga nezvepfungwa iyi yakachenjera makore gumi apfuura. Iyo CIS (CIS), sezvatinoona, iri munzvimbo yekupedzisira. Chiyero chekukura, zvisinei, chakanaka.
CAGR inogona kuverengerwa nenzira dzakasiyana. Semuenzaniso, ngativake CAGR yegore rega rega kubva 1965, kwemakore mashanu apfuura uye kwemakore gumi apfuura. Iwe uchawana iyi inonakidza mufananidzo (yese yepasirese):
Zvinogona kuoneka zvakajeka kuti, paavhareji, kukura kweexponential kwakawedzera uye ndokuzodzikira. "Moskovsky Komsomolets" uye mamwe mayero media mune iyi nyaya anowanzo nyora chimwe chinhu senge "Hupfumi hweChinese huri kudonha," zvichireva kuti "kukura kwakanaka kwehupfumi hweChinese kuri kudzikira" uye nekuchenjerera kunyarara pamusoro pekuti vari kudzikira kusvika. kumhanya kwakadaro zvekuti vamwe vanogona kungotaura hope. Zvose zvakafanana pano.
Ngatiedzei kufanotaura kugadzirwa muna 2018 zvichibva pane data kusvika 2010, tichitora CAGR'1965, CAGR'10Y, CAGR'5Y uye fungidziro yemutsara kubva muna 2010 inoenderana ne2009 uye inoenderana ne2006. Tinowana mufananidzo unotevera:
| Linear'1Y | Linear'4Y | CAGR'1965 | CAGR'10Y | CAGR'5Y | |
| Renewable kugadzirwa muna 2018, fungidziro yakavakirwa pane data kusvika 2010 | 1697 | 1442 | 1465 | 2035 | 2429 |
| Maonero kune chaiwo muna 2018 | 0,68 | 0,58 | 0,59 | 0,82 | 0,98 |
| Forecast kukanganisa | 32% | 42% | 41% | 18% | 2% |
Mapoinzi ehunhu - hapana chimwe chekufanotaura chakave chakanyanya kutarisira, i.e. pasi pese pese. Mune yakanyanya tariro mamiriro ane CAGR ye15,7%, kushomeka kwaive 2%. Mafungiro emutsetse akapa kukanganisa kwe30-40% (nguva yakatorwa zvakanyanya apo, nekuda kwekuderera kwekukura kwekukura, kukanganisa kwavo kwaive kudiki). Zvinosuruvarisa, zvakanga zvisingabviri kuwedzera Sechin's model, sezvo zvisingakwanisi kudzorera fomu yake.
Sebasa remumba, edza kudzosera kumashure nekutamba neCAGR dzakasiyana. Mhedziso ichave pachena: maitiro eexponential anofanotaurwa zvirinani nemaexponential modhi.
Uye secheri pakiki, heino fungidziro kubva kune imwecheteyo BP, iyo ("Kuchenjerera, nyanzvi dziri kushanda!") exponent inopa nzira yekukura kwemutsara mukufanotaura:
Source:
Ndokumbira utarise kuti ivo havaverenge hydropower zvachose, iyo inorondedzerwa seyemhando yepamusoro renewable simba sosi. Naizvozvo, fungidziro yavo yakatonyanya kuchengetedza kupfuura yeSechin, uye vanopa gumi nemaviri% chete ye12. Asi kunyangwe iyo base ikadzikisirwa uye kukura kwakamira kwakamira muna 2020, vane chikamu che2020% muna 2040. Izvo hazvitaridzi zvachose seSechin's 29% ... Ingori imwe mhando yedambudziko ...
Zviri pachena kuti Sechin munhu akangwara. Ini ndiri nyanzvi yemasvomhu yakashandiswa nebasa, kwete injinjiniya yemagetsi, saka handikwanise kupa mhinduro inokodzera kumubvunzo nezve chikonzero chekukanganisa kwakakomba kwakadaro mukufanotaura kwaSechin. Zvingangodaro, chokwadi ndechekuti mamiriro ezvinhu aya anonhuwa sekuderera kwemitengo yemafuta. Uye (uyo asina kuteerera rwiyo urwu naSemyon Slepakov, tarisa) nokuda kwechikonzero chisina kunyatsojeka, kune yakagadzikana kuchinjana kwekutengesa kwemafuta asina kuchena kunze kwenyika, uye kwete yakanatswa petroleum zvigadzirwa. Uye kana iwe uchikanganisa zvakanyanya kufanotaura, zvino izvi zvinobvisa (kwechinguva, munhu anofanira kufunga) mibvunzo isingafadzi. Asi senyanzvi yemasvomhu, ndingade kuona kukanganisa kwakarongeka pamwero wevarume vanobva kuBP vasina kunzwa nezvezvinobuda. Handina basa nazvo, ndiri muchikepe chimwe chete.
Zvose:
- Sezvo vese vakuru vakuru vanoziva, munguva yehondo kukosha kweiyo nguva dzose Ο (chiyero chedenderedzwa redenderedzwa kusvika padhayamita yaro) inosvika 4, uye muzviitiko zvakakosha - kusvika 5. Naizvozvo, kana zvichinyatsodikanwa, kufanotaura kwe nyanzvi dzinoratidza CHESE hunhu hunodiwa nevakuru. Zvinokurudzirwa kuyeuka izvi.
- Exponential maitiro anofanotaurwa zvirinani uchishandisa chiyero chekukura kwegore, kana CAGR.
- Sechin's forecast paSt. Petersburg International Economic Forum inogona kuongororwa sechiyero chakanyanyisa chekusaremekedza vateereri kana sekunyengera kwakanyanya. Kusarudza kubva. Ngativimbei kuti kuchave nevanhu vakashinga vachabvunza mimwe mibvunzo isingafadzi. Semuenzaniso, nei petrochemicals pasi rose inobatsira zvikuru, asi makambani ehurumende yeRussia anodyara makumi emabhiriyoni mu "pombi" uye kutengeswa kwezvinhu zvakasvibiswa, uye kwete mairi?
- Uye pakupedzisira, ndinoda kutarisira kuti mumwe wevaverengi achaita peji pamusoro muRussian Wikipedia. Inguva, ndinofunga.
Simba rezuva
Ngatibatanidzei nyaya ye exponential process. Iyo yazvino BP chati inoratidza kuti chikamu che "zuva" chakasvetuka zvakanyanya muna 2020, uye kunyange inochengetedza BP inotenda mune ramangwana rayo. Sezvineiwo, maitiro eexponential anocherechedzwawo ipapo, ayo, semutemo waMoore, anga achienderera mberi kweanopfuura makore makumi mana uye anonzi Swenson's Law:
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Izvo zvazvinoreva zviri nyore - mutengo wemodule uri kudonha zvakanyanya uye kugadzirwa kuri kukura zvakanyanya. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kana makore makumi mana apfuura yaive tekinoroji ine cosmic (mupfungwa dzese) mutengo wemagetsi, uye yainyanya kukodzera kusimba ma satellites, saka nhasi mutengo wewatt wakatodonha neanenge 40 nguva uye unoramba uchidonha ( nokukurumidza 400 mirairo). Avhareji CAGR mukukosha ingangoita gumi nematanhatu% nekuwedzera kusvika makumi maviri neshanu muzana mumakore gumi apfuura, izvo zvisingawanzo kuitika.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, izvi zvinokonzeresa kukura kwekuwedzera mukuiswa kwesimba uye chizvarwa:
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Kukura nekagumi mumakore manomwe-10 kwakakomba (verenga CAGR iwe pachako, uchawana 7-8% (!)). Zvinoseka, asi kana zvikasamiswa, ipapo simba rezuva chete ndiro richagadzira 33% yemagetsi epasirese anodiwa mumakore gumi nemaviri. Izvi zvinofanira kugadziriswa zvakasimba. Kuti neimwe nzira inonoke kunyadzisa uku muUnited States, Trump gore rapfuura yakaunza hombe (yemamwe misika) 38% yebasa rekupinza ma solar panels. Asi maChinese akatukwa pakupera kwegore akadzikisa mitengo ne100% (pamusoro pegore!), kwete chete kubvisa mabasa, asiwo kuita kutenga kubva kwavari kunobatsira zvakare. Uye ivo vanoramba vachivaka zvizere mafekitori erobhoti nekugadzirwa kwemakumi egigawatts emabhatiri pagore, zvakare uye zvakare nekudzikisa mitengo uye kuwedzera mavhoriyamu ekugadzira. Irwo rudzi rwekurota, unobvuma.
Mari inodonha yemabhatiri ndeyekuti mumakore achangopfuura havana kungokwikwidza pasina rubatsiro, asi muganhu wekushandisa kwavo kusingadhuri uri kukurumidza kuenda kuchamhembe kuchamhembe kwehemisphere, kufukidza kusvika mazana emakiromita pagore. Uyezve, nezuro chete zvaive zvakakosha kutungamira mabhatiri pakona yakakwana uye zvese izvo. 3-4 makore anopfuura, uye nemutengo mumwechete nzvimbo yakakura yemabhatiri inogona kuisirwa zviri nyore pane yakatwasuka yekumaodzanyemba facades. Hongu, hadzina kunyanya kushanda, asi dzinoda kuwachwa zvishoma uye zviri nyore kuisa. Uye kune imwechete yekuisa mutengo, kuderedza mutengo wevaridzi kunonyanya kukosha.
Zvakare, chitsitsinho cheAchilles chesimba rezuva chisina kuenzana kugadzirwa kwemagetsi, kunyanya mumamiriro ezvinhu apo kuchengetedza kushanda kuri kure ne100%. Uye zvino zvinozoitika kuti nehuwandu hwakadaro hwekuderera mumutengo wekugadzira megawati imwe, munguva pfupi kwete chete iyo yakaderera uye yeavhareji kugona kwekuchengetedza yakavharwa (kureva kuti, inogona kuchengetwa nenzira isingashande, asi yakachipa) , asiwo mari yekuisa mabhatiri (kureva, kune iyo mari imwe chete, tinogona kuisa kwete chete megawatts yakawanda yechizvarwa, asiwo megawatts yakawanda yekuchengetedza "yemahara", iyo inoshandura zvakanyanya mamiriro acho ezvinhu).
Zvose:
- Mutemo waSwenson wakada kufanana neMutemo waMoore maererano nehuchokwadi, kunyangwe iyo CAGR idiki. Asi chaizvo mumakore gumi anotevera maitiro ayo anozonyanya kuoneka.
- Iyi inyaya yakaparadzana zvachose, asi nekuda kwekukurumidza kusimudzira kwezuva nemhepo, mamwe mabhiriyoni anopenga akaiswa mari mumaindasitiri ekuchengetedza simba masystem mumakore matatu apfuura. Sezvingatarisirwa, Tesla ari pano , izvo zvakaratidza . Vashandi vegasi . Panguva imwecheteyo, kunakidzwa hakusati kwatanga, sezvo akati wandei matekinoroji anotyisidzira kutora Li-Ion mukudonha kwemitengo yekuchengetedza. Nekudaro, iyi inyaya yakasiyana zvachose, isu tichafarira CAGR yavo mumakore mashoma (ikozvino zvakanakisa, asi izvi ).
Magetsi emagetsi
Nyanzvi dzakakomba dzakanyora mumagazini inoremekedzwa zvikuru Scientific American shure muna 1909, kuti: βIdi rokuti motokari yakasvika muganhu wokukura kwayo rinosimbiswa neidi rokuti mugore rapfuura hakuna kuva nevandudziko yomuitiro wakakomba.β Gore rakapera pakanga pasina kuvandudzwa kwakanyanya mumotokari dzemagetsi kana. Izvi zvinopa zvikonzero zvekutaura nechivimbo chose kuti mota yemagetsi yatosvika panhongonya yekukura kwayo.
Kunyanya zvakanyanya, kune dambudziko re "huku nezai" mumatekinoroji mazhinji. Kusvikira kugadzirwa kwemazhinji kwasvika kune imwe nhanho, zvinodhura zvakanyanya kuunza huwandu hwehunyanzvi, uye, pane zvinopesana, kudzamara vaunzwa, kutengesa kunodzikiswa. Avo. Kukunda "hosha dzevacheche" imwe kugadzirwa kwakawanda kunodiwa. Uye pano zviri nyore kuongorora matekinoroji ehunyanzvi nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwekugadzira pamunhu:
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Ini handisi nyanzvi uye handizive kuti mota dzemagetsi dzichachinja sei mumakore gumi nemashanu anotevera. Asi ichi zvirokwazvo chigadzirwa chepamusoro-soro, uye vanochinja nekukurumidza. Uye chiyero chemagetsi emagetsi emazuva ano ndiwo chiyero chemotokari dzine injini dzinopisa mukati muna 15 uye nhamba yemafoni emafoni muna 1910. Kuchinja kune zviri nani (kune mutengi) mumakore gumi nemashanu anotevera achave anoshamisa. Uye ndipo panotanga mafaro.
Kazhinji, mota dzemagetsi dzinosundirwa mberi nezvinhu zvitatu:
- Paunotsika gasi, unobhururuka uchienda mberi, senge mumotokari yemitambo, uye mutengo wakaderera zvakanyanya pane wemotokari yemitambo. Uye mota dzemagetsi dzinovabata munzira pfupi (, , somuenzaniso, nokuda kwechikonzero ichi Tesla ) Ndeupi mupurisa wekuRussia-America asingadi kutyaira nekukurumidza?
- Kuzadza zvakare kwakachipa, kana pasina. Roman Naumov anogara kuCanada () inokonzera kushatirwa kunopisa, inotsanangura kuti iye, chirwere, akatyaira makiromita 600 kunze kweguta, akashandisa $ 4 pamafuta (kana kuti haana kumboishandisa zvachose). Elon Musk, ndinorangarira, akanyunyuta kuti varidzi vazhinji vakapfuma veTeslas inodhura vanoityaira kune yemahara Supercharger, yakatukwa freebie. Muchidimbu, mafuta anenge abviswa kubva pazvinhu zvinodyiwa.
- Uye mainjiniya ose anotaura pamwe chete kuti kana hosha dzeuhwana dzikarapwa, motokari yemagetsi inodhura zvinooneka kuichengeta. IZVI zvichave zvakachipa zvakanyanya. Vanoti matayi chete ndiwo anofanirwa kuchinjwa nguva zhinji, anosakara...
Uye, chokwadi, chokwadi chokuti motokari inogona, chaizvoizvo, kubhadharwa chero kupi zvako kune nzvimbo yekubuda - iyi ishanduko. Kureva, kana magetsi akasvika mbuya vako mumusha, unogona kuuya kwavari uye recharge, kunyange kwenguva refu. Zvechokwadi, haungakwanisi kutyaira mukombe wenyika, asi 99. (9)% yevanhu vanouya kumusha, uye ipapo motokari ichiri kugara ipapo. Uye mangwana haizongomira chete, asi inopedza magetsi pamutengo unodhura wemusha.
Ehe, pachine mashoma machaja, kunyanya anokurumidza, asi ... ngatitarisei pagirafu:
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Chii? Exponential process zvakare? Uye chii! Mubvunzo unobvunzwa sezvinotevera: mamiriro ezvinhu achachinja sei kana mumakore gumi anotevera nhamba yezviteshi zvegesi inowedzera ka10 ("Chiuru, Karl!")? (Iyi CAGR=1000%, i.e. kaviri pagore) Ndine urombo, ndakanganisa. Mune inotevera 8 makore 1000 nguva! (Iyi CAGR = 137%, i.e. inokurumidza kupfuura kupetwa kwepagore). Uye maviri aya makore 8 anenge apfuura ... Uye vanhu vanobva kumhizha vanoti mumakore 8 anotevera kukura hakuzove 3 mirairo yehukuru, asi nekukurumidza, kunyanya nechizvarwa chitsva cheforogo. Kuti unzwisise kuti ichaita sei, unofanirwa kuuya kuChina. Muchokwadi, kune nzvimbo dzemagetsi munzvimbo zhinji dzekupaka uye dzinokura sehowa mushure memvura inodziya. Uye kunyange vagari vezvivakwa zvepamusoro-soro vanozowedzera vhiki parwendo rweSvondo kuenda kubhaisikopo kana nzvimbo yekutengesa (uko mota ichiri yakamiswa uye yakakumirira iwe kwemaawa akati wandei). Uye nzvimbo dzekutengesa dzine maresitorendi dzicharwira vashanyi vane motokari dzemagetsi (vari kutorwa muChina).
Hongu, mutengo wemotokari dzemagetsi wakakwira zvino. Asi bhatiri rinopa chikamu chikuru ipapo, uye mutengo wayo unodonha seizvi:
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Hongu, vakabvuma! Ichi zvakare chiitiko che exponential! Uye avhareji CAGR ndeye -20,8%, iyo, sezvatinoziva, yakakwira ZVAKANYA. Kana 5% iri ka2 mumakore gumi nemashanu, asi 15% ka20 mumakore 10 (βKagumi, Karl!β):
Zvinoseka kuti pachiyero ichi, mumakore 3-4, panzvimbo yebhatiri imwe yemotokari yako, unogona kutenga maviri nemutengo mumwe chete. Tumira yechipiri mugaraji, uye ichakupa iwe pachako supercharger. Unouya kumba wozodira mafuta. Uye pamwero weusiku. Uye imba yose ichapiwa zvokudya panguva yeusiku. Uye kupera kwemagetsi mumusha wekottage hakuchazovi nehanya. Uye (kurangarira CAGR ye "zuva") - zvinokwanisika kuisa solar panels padenga. Kune mari yakanaka yekuchengetedza ipapo, saka vanhu vazhinji vachati: βZvakanaka! Ndichatora! Pedzisa! (kunyanya mu ΠΈ , Chokwadi).
Chinhu chinoshamisa, shure kwezvose, izvi exponential maitiro. Mumakore anotevera e10, tichaona kufambira mberi kwakakomba mumunda wemotokari dzemagetsi uye motokari dzemazuva ano dzemagetsi dzichaonekwa sedzisina kunaka uye dzakashata. Hapana simba rekuchengetedza, hapana autopilot, unofanirwa kutakura boka rema adapter ... Mienzaniso yekutanga, muchidimbu.
Zvose:
- Mota dzemagetsi dzakatengeswa muChina muhafu yekutanga ye2019 . Panguva imwecheteyo, kutengesa kwemotokari dzine injini dzinopisa mukati dzakadonha ne12%. Harisi bhero, igongo.
- Iyo inonyanya kufarirwa pakati pemotokari dzemagetsi ndeye, hongu, Tesla. Asi ndaizokwevera pfungwa dzako kumaChinese . Zvichida ndiye anonyanya kutaridzika .
- KuChina, marezinesi emotokari dzemagetsi akasvibira. Zviremera zvinovimbisa kuti munguva pfupi iri kuuya pamazuva e "dzvuku" nhanho yehutsi vachamira kubvumidza mota dzese kunze kweyemagetsi pakati peBeijing. Makambani ematekisi ari kutenga motokari dzemagetsi nezviuru. Munyori akatasva tekisi yakadaro, inoratidzika inoshamisa.
Chii chiri kuitika muIT?
Mutemo waMoore wakasvika pakuzivikanwa sezvo wakagara neCAGR hombe inosvika makumi mana nerimwe muzana kweanoda kusvika makore makumi mana. Ndeipi mimwe mienzaniso yeCAGR yakanaka iripo muIT? Kune akawanda acho, semuenzaniso, kukura kwemari yeGoogle neCAGR ye41% pamakore gumi nematanhatu:
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Tichitarisa iyi girafu, vamwe vanhu (kunyanya avo vane zvikumbiro zvakarambidzwa kubva kuGoogle Play Store) vakanzwa kusagadzikana. Pane zvakawanda zvekufunga nezvazvo pano. Vhiki yapfuura, ndichityaira motokari, iyo smartphone yakatanga kuramba ichikurudzira kuchinja kuGoogle navigation, pasinei nokuti ndakanga ndava kutotyaira neYandex.Navigator. Ivo vangangove havachina saizi yemusika yakakwana, asi ivo vanofanirwa kukwidza mari, ndakafunga. Uye ndakafungawo nezvazvo.
Nekudaro, kune zvakare mamwe ane tarisiro akachena tekinoroji magirafu, semuenzaniso, anoratidzwa pachiyero chelogarithmic, kudzikiswa kwemutengo wedhisiki nzvimbo uye kuwedzera kwekukurumidza kwekubatana kweInternet panosvika 2019:
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Zviri nyore kuona kuti kune tsika yekusvika pabani, i.e. kukura kunoderera. Kunyange zvakadaro, vakakura zvakanaka kwemakumi emakore. Kana iwe ukatarisa ma hard drive mune zvakadzama, iwe unogona kuona kuti iyo inotevera kudzoka kune exponent inowanzo oneswa neinotevera tekinoroji.
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Saka isu takamirira maSSD kuti abate neHDDs tovasiya kure kumashure.
Zvakare, iine yakanakisa CAGR ye59%, mutengo wemapikisi emakamera edhijitari wakadonha panguva imwe (Handy's Law):
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Makore gumi apfuura akaonawo kuderera kwakanyanya muhukuru hwepixel kamera.
Zvakare, neCAGR yakanaka ingangoita makumi maviri neshanu muzana (gumi nguva mumakore gumi), mutengo papixel yechiratidziro chave kudonha kweanenge makore makumi mana, ukuwo kupenya nekusiyana kwemapikisi kuri kuwedzera (kureva, mhando yepamusoro. inopihwa nemutengo wakaderera). Kakawanda, vagadziri havachaziva pekuisa pixels. 25K TVs dzatove nemutengo wakaderera, asi zvekuratidza pazviri mubvunzo wakanaka. Chero nhamba yepixels inogona kutorwa ne autostereoscopy, asi pane nyaya dzisina kugadziriswa ipapo. Zvisinei, iyi inyaya yakasiyana. Chero zvazvingava, kudzikiswa kunofadza mumutengo wepixel kunounza autostereoscopy pedyo.
Mukuwedzera, iyo exponential kupararira kweakawanda software masevhisi:
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Somuenzaniso, AppleTV kana Facebook. Uye, sezvataurwa pamusoro, kuvonga kunyanya kumasocial network, kukurumidza kwekuparadzira zvigadzirwa kunowedzera.
Zvose:
- Zvikuru nekuda kwemaexponential maitiro mukati memakore makumi maviri apfuura, makambani eIT akatamisa vamwe zvakanyanya mune rondedzero yemakambani makuru pasirese. Uye havana chinangwa chekumira (chero zvazvinoreva).
- Kuvandudzwa kwemazhinji matekinoroji muIT kune exponential. Uyezve, iyo yakasarudzika ndeye S-yakaita ma curves, kana munzvimbo imwechete tekinoroji inotsiva imwe, nguva yega yega ichikonzera imwe kudzoka kune exponential rate.
Neural network
Neural network yave yakakurumbira zvakanyanya mazuva ano. Ngatitarisei huwandu hwematendi pavari mumakore achangopfuura:
Damn... Inotaridzika semuratidziri zvakare (kunyangwe nguva yacho ipfupi). Nekudaro, kana tikatarisa kutanga kwenguva yakareba, mufananidzo wacho wakafanana (nguva gumi neina mumakore gumi nemashanu iri CAGR ye14% - yakanaka kwazvo):
Source: (hongu, hongu, ndinoziva zviripo mumakore matatu anotevera)
Panguva imwecheteyo, neural network munzvimbo dzakawanda dzinoratidzira zvirinani mhedzisiro kupfuura munhuwo zvake:
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Uye zvakanaka, kana mhedzisiro iri paImageNet (kunyangwe mhedzisiro yacho iri chizvarwa chitsva chemarobhoti emaindasitiri), asi mukuziva kwekutaura mufananidzo mumwechete:
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Muchokwadi, neural network ichangopfuura munhuwo zvake mukuzivikanwa kwekutaura uye vari munzira yekuvapfuura mumitauro yese yakajairika. Imomo, .
Sezvavanoseka pamusoro pechinyorwa ichi, kwete kare takafunga: hongu, munguva pfupi marobhoti achakwanisa kuita matinji pamwero wetsoko, uye zvaifungidzirwa kuti iri kure kwazvo kubva padanho rebenzi, uye zvakatonyanya. Einstein:
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Asi kamwe kamwe zvakazoitika kuti nhanho yemunhuwo zvake yakanga yatosvika (uye inoenderera mberi kusvika) ), uye kusvika pamwero weunyanzvi husingawanzo (semakwikwi nemunhu ari chess uye Go akaratidzira) chinhambwe chakangoerekana chave kushoma pane chaitarisirwa:
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Mu chess, vanhu vakatanhamara vakabatwa anenge makore gumi nemashanu apfuura, muGo - , uye maitiro ari pachena:
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Sezvo ane mukurumbira General Electric CEO Jack Welch akamboti, "Kana mwero wekuchinja kunze wakakura kupfuura mwero wekuchinja mukati, kuguma kwave pedyo." Avo. Kana kambani ikasachinja nekukurumidza kupfuura mamiriro akaitenderedza anochinja, iri panjodzi huru. Nehurombo, akasiya chigaro makore gumi nemasere apfuura, uye hupfumi hweGE hwakawedzera kubva ipapo. GE haisi kuenderana nekuchinja.
Kurangarira kufanotaura nezve runhare nenyanzvi dzeWestern Union, kufanotaura kwaLord Kelvin, fungidziro yemusika yeDigital Equipment makomputa epamba uye maMicrosoft smartphones, kuseri kwekufanotaura kwaSechin, ndine chikonzero chekunetsekana. Nokuti nhoroondo inozvidzokorora. Uye zvakare. Uye zvakare. Uye zvakare.
Nyanzvi dzakawanda, mushure mekudzidza ndima yavo pachikoro / yunivhesiti, vanomira kuenderera mberi. Uye kufanotaura kunoitwa uchishandisa tekinoroji yezana ramakore rapfuura (mupfungwa dzese). Mumakore achangopfuura, ndanga ndichishungurudzwa nemubvunzo: nekukurumidza sei neural network inotsiva nyanzvi dzisingazive mashandisiro eCAGR? Uye ndinongoda kuita fungidziro, uye ndinotya kukanganisa. Kuenda kune undershoot, sezvaunonzwisisa.
Asi zvakakomba, kukurumidza kukurumidza kwekuchinja kwakafanana nemhepo. Kana iwe uchiziva kuseta maseiri nenzira kwayo (uye chikepe chinoteedzera), saka kunyangwe mhepo ine musoro haizokutadzise kuenda kumberi, uye kunyangwe iri mhepo yemuswe, uye kunyangwe neCAGR yakakura !!!
Inofara CAGR kune wese apedza kuverenga!
DUP
Habraeffect ichiri kushanda! Pazuva rakabudiswa chinyorwa ichi, imwe nyaya yakabuda pamusoro ! Muenzaniso hausati washandurwa, asi kutanga kwakatoitwa. Kuwedzera iwe unogona kuona kana
KutendaNdinoda kutenda nemoyo wese:
- Laboratory yeComputer Graphics VMK Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov nokuda kwekubatsira kwake mukugadzirwa kwemifananidzo yekombuta muRussia nekumwe,
- pachangu Konstantin Kozhemyakov, akaita zvakawanda kuti chinyorwa ichi chive nani uye chakajeka,
- uye pakupedzisira, tinotenda zvikuru Kirill Malyshev, Egor Sklyarov, Ivan Molodetskikh, Nikolai Oplachko, Evgeny Lyapustin, Alexander Ploshkin, Andrey Moskalenko, Aidar Khatiullin, Dmitry Klepikov, Dmitry Konovalchuk, Maxim Velikanov, Alexander Yakovenko nhamba huru yeKukuptsov uye Evgeny makomendi nekugadzirisa zvakaita kuti chinyorwa ichi chive nani!
Source: www.habr.com