"Kudzivirirwa" ishoko rakanaka kune zvakaipa.
Milton Friedman "Rusununguko rweKusarudza"
Ichi chinyorwa chakawanikwa nekuda kwekuongorora zvimwe zvinyorwa kune zvinyorwa и .
Pakududzira chero data uye kuita mhedziso, vamwe vatsinhiri vakaita “mhosho yemupukunyuki” yakafanana.
Chii chinonzi kurerekera kumunhu anenge apona? Izvi tichifunga zvinozivikanwa uye tichiregeredza zvisingazikanwi asi zviripo.
Muenzaniso we“mutengo” wemhosho yomupukunyuki uye muenzaniso wokubudirira kukunda chikanganiso ichi ibasa renyanzvi yemasvomhu yokuHungary Abraham Wald, uyo akashandira uto reAmerica mukati meHondo yeNyika II.
Murairo wakagadza Wald basa rekuongorora maburi kubva kumabara uye shrapnel pandege dzeAmerica uye kukumbira nzira yekubhuka kuitira kuti vatyairi vendege nendege vasafe.
Zvakanga zvisingagoneke kushandisa nhumbi dzokurwa dzisingaperi - ndege yacho yairema zvakanyanya. Zvaive zvakafanira kuchengetedza idzo nzvimbo dzaive dzakuvadzwa, pakarohwa mabara, kana idzo nzvimbo dzisina kukuvara. Vapikisi vaWald vakakurudzira kuchengetedza zvigaro zvakakanganisika (zvine madotsi matsvuku pamufananidzo).
Wald akaramba. Vati ndege dzinenge dzakuvadzwa zvakadaro dzakakwanisa kudzoka, asi ndege dzinenge dzakuvadzwa kune dzimwe nzvimbo hadzina kukwanisa kudzoka. Maonero aWald akakunda. Ndege dzakanga dzarongedzerwa pakanga pasina kukanganisa ndege yaidzoka. Nekuda kweizvozvo, nhamba yendege dzakasara yakawedzera zvakanyanya. Maererano nemimwe mishumo, Wald akaponesa hupenyu hwevanosvika makumi matatu muzana vevatyairi vendege vekuAmerica nenzira iyi. (Ndinogona kunge ndisina kururama pamusoro penhamba, asi mhedzisiro yacho yaive yakakosha. Wald akaponesa mazana ehupenyu).
Mumwe mufananidzo we "nhema dzemupukunyuki" inhoroondo yaCicero yemashoko aDiagoras weMelos, uyo, mukupindura nharo mukufarira mhiko kuna vamwari, nekuti kune "mifananidzo yakawanda yeruponeso rwevanhu vakabatwa. mudutu ndokupika mhiko kuvamwari yokuita rudzi rwakati rwemhiko,” akapindura kudaro, kuti “zvisinei, mifananidzo ipi neipi yaavo vakafira mugungwa somuuyo wokuputsikirwa kwechikepe haipo.”
Uye yekutanga "mupukunyuki kukanganisa" mumashoko kune chinyorwa ndechokuti hatizivi kuti vangani vakanaka, vanobatsira, mazano akajeka, zvisikwa, zvigadzirwa, mabasa ezvesayenzi zvakavigwa ne "zvisingafarirwi" zvakasiyana-siyana, "kuregeredza" uye "kurambidzwa".
Ndichatora mazwi a Mr. : “Hapana anoziva kuti ingani pfungwa dzakanaka dzakaburitswa, dzisina kuburitswa, dzisina kugadzirwa nekutya kurambidzwa. Paive nekuedza kwakawanda kwakapera chinyararire munyori achirambidzwa, zvakare. Chiri kuoneka iye zvino ndechokuti ipfungwa ngani dzinobudirira dzinozivikanwa nokukurumidza kana kuti kunonokerwa, uye kuti ingani dzisina kubudirira dzisingazivikanwi. Kana uchivimba chete nezvinoonekwa, hongu, zvese zvakanaka. "
Izvi ndezvechokwadi kune chero rating system inoenderana nezvido zvevazhinji. Ingave sainzi, masocial network, injini dzekutsvaga, madzinza echinyakare, mapoka ezvitendero kana dzimwe nharaunda dzevanhu.
"Kurambidza" uye "kusada" hazviwanzo kuitika nekuda kwe "chinangwa chakaipa." Kuita kwe "kutsamwa" kune chimwe chinhu chitsva uye chisina kujairika chiitiko chepanyama uye chepfungwa chinonzi buzzword "cognitive dissonance" - inongori chimiro chemarudzi ese eHomo sapiens, uye kwete pfuma yerimwe boka. Asi boka rimwe nerimwe rinogona kunge riine zvinogumbura zvaro. Uye iyo "itsva" uye "yakanyanya kusajairika", iyo yakasimba kutsamwa, iyo yakasimba dissonance. Uye iwe unofanirwa kudzora psyche yako zvakanyanya kuti usarwisa "anonetsa". Izvo, zvisinei, hazvitombopembedzi murwi. “Muparadzi” chete “anotsamwa,” nepo zviito zvomudzvinyiriri zvine chinangwa chokuparadza.
Kukanganisa kwemupukunyuki kunogonawo kuwanikwa mumashoko kune chinyorwa. . Uye ine chekuita nekupihwa chitupa kwemishonga.
Pazasi ini ndichapa yakakura quote kubva mubhuku "Rusununguko rweKusarudza" naNobel mubairo wezvehupfumi Milton Friedman, asi parizvino ini ndichangoona kuti nhamba huru yemakiriniki miedzo, zvitupa uye zvimwe zvinhu nekuda kwechimwe chikonzero hazvitendese vanhu vese. kuti ubaiwe, tora mishonga inorwisa mabhakitiriya uye mahomoni. Avo. Rezinesi uye chitupa "hachishande" mune iyi kesi. Panguva imwecheteyo, kune vanhu vazhinji vanoshandisa chikafu chekuwedzera kana homeopathy, izvo zvisiri (kuzviisa zvinyoro) pasi pekutonga kwakakomba semishonga. Kune vanhu vazhinji vanosarudza kutendeukira kun'anga nen'anga, pane kuenda kun'anga uye kunwa "chemistry", iyo ine marezinesi, zvitupa uye iyo yakapfuura akawanda ekutonga uye bvunzo.
Mutengo wechisarudzo chakadaro unogona kunge wakakwira zvakanyanya - kubva pakuremara kusvika pakufa. Kufa nekukurumidza. Nguva iyo murwere anoshandisa pakurapa nemishonga yezvokudya, kuregeredza makemikari uye kushanyira chiremba, kunoguma nemukana wakarasika wekurapa chirwere panguva yekutanga, iyo inonzi. "Lucid interval".
Izvo zvakakosha kuti unzwisise kuti mushonga usati watumirwa ku "certification", kambani yemishonga inoitisa yakawanda yayo bvunzo uye kutonga, kusanganisira. paruzhinji.
Certification inongodzokorora maitiro aya. Uyezve, munyika imwe neimwe zvinhu zvose zvinodzokororwa, izvo pakupedzisira zvinowedzera mutengo wemishonga kune mutengi.
Uku kwaive kubuda zvishoma kubva pachinyorwa. Zvino, kupfupisa zvakanyanya, ndinodzokorora Milton Friedman.
«Kuronga mabasa akabatana anobatsira vanhu hazvidi kupindira kwemasimba ekunze, kumanikidza kana kudzvinyirirwa rusununguko ... Ikozvino kune humbowo hwakakura hwekuti zviitwa zveFDA zvinokuvadza, kuti vakaita zvakanyanya kukuvadza nekumisa kufambira mberi mukugadzirwa nekugovera kwemishonga inobatsira pane kunaka nekuchengetedza musika kubva kumishonga inokuvadza uye isingashande.
Kufurira kweFood and Drug Administration (FDA) pachiyero chekuunzwa kwemishonga mitsva kwakakosha kwazvo... zvino zvinotora nguva yakareba kuti mushonga mutsva ubvumidzwe uye, muchidimbu semhedzisiro, mitengo yekugadzira mishonga mitsva. yakawedzera exponentially ... kuunza chigadzirwa chitsva kumusika iwe unofanirwa kushandisa 54 mamirioni emadhora uye anenge makore 8, i.e. pakanga paine kuwedzera kwezana kwemitengo uye kuwedzera kwechina munguva zvichienzaniswa nekuwedzera kwemitengo kwakapetwa kaviri. Nekuda kweizvozvo, makambani emishonga eUS haachakwanise kugadzira mishonga mitsva yekurapa varwere vane zvirwere zvisingawanzo. Pamusoro pezvo, isu hatigone kutora mukana wakazara wekufambira mberi kwekunze, sezvo Agency isingagamuchire humbowo hunobva kunze kwenyika sehumbowo hwekushanda kwezvinodhaka.
Kana ukanzvera ukoshi hwokurapa hwemishonga isati yatangwa muUnited States asi inowanika muEngland, somuenzaniso, uchawana chiverengero chakati apo varwere vakatambura nokushaikwa kwemirimo. Somuenzaniso, kune mishonga inonzi beta blockers inogona kudzivirira rufu kubva kuhosha yemwoyo—yechipiri kudzivirira rufu runobva muhosha yemwoyo—dai mishonga iyi yaiwanika muUnited States. vaigona kuponesa upenyu hunenge zviuru gumi pagore...
Mhedzisiro isina kunanga kumurwere ndeyekuti sarudzo dzekurapa, dzaimbove pakati pechiremba nemurwere, dziri kuramba dzichiitwa padanho renyika nemakomiti enyanzvi. Kune Chikafu neDrug Administration, kudzivirira njodzi ndiyo inonyanya kukosha uye, semhedzisiro, tine mishonga isina njodzi, asi hatisisina inoshanda.
Hazvisi zvetsaona kuti iyo Food and Drug Administration, zvisinei nevavariro dzayo dzakanakisa, inoita zvekuodza mwoyo kusimudzira uye kushambadzira kwemishonga mitsva uye inogona kubatsira.
Zviise wega shangu dzemukuru weFDA ane mhosva yekubvumidza kana kusatendera mushonga mutsva. Unogona kuita zvikanganiso zviviri:
1. Bvumira mushonga, iyo ine mhedzisiro isingatarisirwi inozoguma nerufu kana kuderera kwakanyanya muhutano hwenhamba yakati wandei yevanhu.
2. Ramba kubvumidza mushonga, iyo inogona kuponesa upenyu hwevanhu vakawanda kana kuderedza kutambura kukuru uye isina migumisiro yakaipa.
Kana ukaita chikanganiso chekutanga ukabvumira, zita rako richabuda pamapeji ekutanga emapepanhau ese. uchawira mukunyadziswa kukuru. Kana ukakanganisa kechipiri, ndiani achaziva? Kambani yemishonga inokurudzira mushonga mutsva unogona kurambwa semufananidzo wevanamuzvinabhizimisi vane makaro vane mwoyo yedombo? Vashoma vemakemikari vane hasha uye vanachiremba vanogadzira uye kuyedza mushonga mutsva?
Varwere avo vangadai vakaponeswa havachakwanisi kupikisa. Mhuri dzavo hadzitomboziva kuti vanhu vavanoitira hanya vakarasikirwa neupenyu nekuda kwe "njere" yemukuru asingazivikanwe weChikafu neDrug Administration.
Kunyangwe uine vavariro dzakanakisa munyika, usingazivi unorambidza zvinodhaka zvakawanda zvakanaka kana kunonoka kubvumidzwa kuti udzivise mukana wekuregedza mushonga pamusika ungave nemhedzisiro yekuita misoro ...
Kukuvadzwa kunokonzerwa nemabasa eFood and Drug Administration hakusi mhedzisiro yekukanganisa kwevanhu vari munzvimbo dzebasa. Vazhinji vavo vashandi vehurumende vanokwanisa uye vakazvipira. Zvisinei, dzvinyiriro dzenzanga, dzezvamatongerwe enyika, uye dzezvemari dzinosarudza mufambiro wavanhu vane mutoro wesangano rehurumende zvikuru kupfuura zvavanosarudza ivo vamene mufambiro waro. Pane zvisizvo, hapana mubvunzo, asi zvinenge zvisingaite sekitsi dzinohukura." End of quote.
Nokudaro, “chikanganiso chomupukunyuki” mukuongorora kushanda kwomutumbi unodzora “zvinodhura” vanhu 10000 XNUMX upenyu pagore nokuda kwomushonga mumwe bedzi munyika imwe. Ukuru hwechikamu chose chisingaoneki cheiyi “chando chechando” chakaoma kufungidzira. Uye, zvichida, zvinotyisa.
“Varwere vane upenyu hungadai hwakaponeswa havachakwanisi kuratidza kupikisa kwavo. Mhuri dzavo hadzizotomboziva kuti vanhu vavaida vakarasikirwa neupenyu hwavo nekuda kwe“chenjedzo” yemukuru mukuru asingazivikanwe.. Hapana kana mumwe mugadziri asina hanya akakonzera kukuvadzwa kwakadaro kuvagari biyake.
Pakati pezvimwe zvinhu, basa retifiketi rinodhura kune vateresi. Avo. kuvagari vose. Maererano nekuverenga kwaMilton Friedman, mugove we "kudyiwa" nevakuru vakuru vanoronga zvirongwa zvakasiyana-siyana zvevanhu muUnited States inenge hafu yehuwandu hwemitero yakagoverwa kune zvakasiyana-siyana zvemagariro evanhu. Iyi hafu inopedzerwa pamihoro uye zvimwe zvinodhura zvevakuru kubva kunharaunda yekugovera uye kutonga system. Chero bhizinesi ringadai rakaparara kare nemari isingabudiriri yakadaro.
Izvi zvakafanana nekubhadhara muchengeti webasa rakashata muresitorendi zano rakaenzana nemutengo wekudya kwemanheru. Kana kubhadhara kurongedza kwezvigadzirwa musupermarket muhuwandu hwemutengo wazvo uzere chete nekuda kwekuti ivo vanozorongedzerwa iwe.
Kuvapo kwemukuru muketani yemugadziri-zvinhu-mutengi kana sevhisi-mutengi kunowedzera kaviri mutengo wechero chigadzirwa uye sevhisi. Avo. Muhoro womunhu upi noupi waigona kutenga zvinhu namabasa zvakapetwa kaviri kana mukuru mukuru akanga asingabatanidzwi mukudzorwa kwezvinhu izvi namabasa.
Sokutaura kwakaita Mutongi Louis Brandeis: “Chiitiko chinodzidzisa kuti rusununguko runonyanya kuda dziviriro apo hurumende inonangidzirwa kuzvinangwa zvakanaka.”
Kupa marezinesi, pamwe nedzimwe nzira dzinorambidza dzekudzora (kudzvinyirira) hupfumi, hazvisi zvitsva zvachose uye zvave zvichizivikanwa kubva kuMiddle Ages. Ese marudzi emasangano, castes, estates hazvisi chimwe kunze kwekupihwa rezinesi uye zvitupa, zvakashandurirwa mumutauro wemazuva ano. Uye chinangwa chavo chave chakafanana - kudzikamisa makwikwi, kukwidza mitengo, kuwedzera mari ye "zvavo" uye kudzivirira "kunze" kupinda. Avo. kusarura kwakafanana uye banal cartel chibvumirano, kuwedzera kunaka uye kuwedzera mitengo yevatengi.
Zvichida isu tinoda neimwe nzira kubuda muMiddle Ages? Izana remakore rechi21.
Njodzi mumigwagwa dzinokonzerwa nevatyairi vane kodzero nemarezinesi. Mhosho dzekurapa dzinoitwa nevarapi vane mvumo uye vane rezinesi. Vadzidzisi vane marezenisi uye vane zvitupa vanodzidzisa zvisina kunaka uye kukonzera kushungurudzika mupfungwa kuvadzidzi. Panguva imwecheteyo, varapi, homeopaths, shamans uye charlatans vanobata zvakanaka vasina marezinesi uye bvunzo uye vanobudirira zvakanaka, vachiita bhizinesi ravo, vachigutsa kudiwa kwehuwandu.
Panguva imwecheteyo, marezinesi ese uye zvibvumirano zvinodyisa vatungamiriri vazhinji vasingaburitse chero zvinhu kana masevhisi anobatsira vagari, asi. nokuda kwechimwe chikonzero kuva nekodzero yokusarudzira mugari kwaanogona kurapwa uye kudzidza pamitero yake pachake.
Mumwe anogona kungoshamisika kuti, pasinei nekudzivisa vector yebasa revakuru, makambani emishonga achiri kukwanisa kunyoresa mishonga yakawanda muzana remakore rechi20 iyo yakaponesa mamiriyoni ehupenyu.
Uye munhu anogona kungotyisidzirwa kuti mangani madhiragi asina kugadzirwa, asina kunyoreswa, uye aionekwa seasina kuvimbika mune zvehupfumi nekuda kwekudhura uye kureba kwekupihwa rezenisi. Zvinotyisa kuti vangani vanhu vakarasikirwa nehupenyu hwavo uye hutano nekuda kwemabasa anorambidza evakuru.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kuvapo kwenhamba huru yerezinesi, kutonga, kutarisira uye kubhadharisa vatungamiriri uye zviremera hazvina kutombodzikisa huwandu hwemacharlatans, mishonga yevanhu, marudzi ese emapanaceas uye mashiripiti mapiritsi. Mamwe acho anogadzirwa pasi pechifukidziro chezvekudya zvekuwedzera, zvimwe zvinongogoverwa nekupfuura chero ma pharmacy, zvitoro uye zviremera.
Tinofanira kuramba tichisundidzira nzira isiriyo yekupihwa marezenisi uye mutemo? Handifungi.
Kana huropi hwemuverengi anoremekedzwa akaverenga chinyorwa kusvika kumagumo husati hwapisa nechisimba cognitive dissonance, saka ndinoda kukurudzira mabhuku mana e "priming", akanyorwa nemutauro wakapfava uye kuparadza ngano zhinji maererano necapitalism, mupukunyuki. kukanganisa, hupfumi uye kutonga kwehurumende. Aya ndiwo mabhuku: Milton Friedman "Rusununguko rwekusarudza" Ayn Rand "Capitalism. "Chinhu Chisina Kuziva" Steven Levitt "Freakonomics" Malcolm Gladwell "Geniuses uye kunze" Frederic Bastia "Chii chinoonekwa uye chisingaoneki."
А Chimwe chinyorwa nezve "chikanganiso chemupukunyuki" chakatumirwa.
Mifananidzo: , , .
PS Vadikanwi vaverengi, ndinokumbira kuti murangarire kuti “Maitiro echipopoma akakosha kupfuura nyaya yenyaya. Zvinhu zvinoshanduka, asi chimiro chinoumba budiriro. " (Grigory Pomerantz). Kana ini ndisina kupindura kune yako chirevo, saka pane chakakanganisika nemaitiro ekupokana kwako.
Addition.
Ndinokumbira ruregerero kune wese akanyora zvine musoro uye handina kupindura. Icho chokwadi ndechekuti mumwe wevashandisi akapinda mutsika yekudzikisira mhinduro dzangu. Every. Pazvinongoonekwa. Izvi zvinonditadzisa kuwana "mutero" uye kuisa kuwedzera mu karma uye nekupindura avo vanonyora mazwi ane musoro.
Asi kana uchiri kuda kuwana mhinduro uye kukurukura chinyorwa, unogona kundinyorera meseji yakavanzika. ndinovapindura.
Wedzero 2.
"Kukanganisa Kwemupukunyuki" uchishandisa chinyorwa ichi semuenzaniso.
Nezvekunyora uku, chinyorwa chine 33,9k maonero uye 141 makomendi.
Ngatitorei kuti mazhinji acho haana kunaka kune chinyorwa.
Avo. Nyaya yacho yakaverengwa nevanhu 33900. Yakatsikwa 100. 339 times less.
Avo. Kana tikapeta zvakanyanyisa uye nefungidziro, saka munyori haana data pamusoro pemafungiro evaverengi 33800, asi chete pamafungiro evaverengi zana (chaizvoizvo, kunyange zvishoma, sezvo vamwe vaverengi vachisiya mhinduro dzakawanda).
Uye munyori anoitei, i.e. ndichiverenga macomments? Ndiri kuita zvakajairwa "kukanganisa kwemupukunyuki." Ini ndinoongorora zana chete "minuses", zvachose (mupfungwa) tichiregeredza chokwadi chekuti izvi zvinongova 0,3% yemafungiro. Uye zvichibva pane izvi 0,3%, zviri mukati mekukanganisa kwehuwandu, ndinogumisa kuti ini handina kufarira chinyorwa. Ndakagumbuka, ndisina kuva nechikonzero chiduku cheizvi, kana iwe uchifunga zvine musoro uye kwete mupfungwa.
Izvozvo. Iyo "mupukunyuki fallacy" haingori mundima yemasvomhu chete, asiwo pamwe mumunda wepfungwa uye neurophysiology, iyo inoita kuti kuonesa kwayo uye kururamisa kuve "basa rinorwadza" rehuropi hwemunhu.
Wedzero 3.
Kunyangwe izvi zviri kunze kwechikamu chechinyorwa ichi, sezvo nyaya yekudzora mhando yezvinodhaka ichikurukurwa zvine simba mumashoko, ini ndinopindura munhu wese kamwechete.
Imwe nzira yekutonga yenyika inogona kunge iri kugadzirwa kweakazvimirira nyanzvi marabhoritari ayo anoongorora mhando yemishonga, ichikwikwidzana. (Uye marabhoritari akadaro, nzanga, masangano uye masangano atovepo munyika).
Ichapei? Kutanga, ichabvisa huwori, sezvo pachagara paine mukana wekutarisa kaviri uye kuramba iyo data yehuori bvunzo. Chechipiri, ichakurumidza uye yakachipa. Zvingori nekuti bhizinesi rakazvimirira rinogara richiita zvakanyanya kupfuura bhizinesi rehurumende. Chechitatu, nyanzvi yerabhoritari ichatengesa mabasa ayo, zvinoreva kuti ichava nemhosva yehutano, mazwi, mitengo.Zvose izvi pamwe chete zvinoderedza mutengo wemishonga mu pharmacy. Chechina, kana pasuru yacho isina mucherechedzo pakuongororwa murabhoritari yakazvimirira yega nyanzvi, kana maviri kana matatu, mutengi anozonzwisisa kuti mushonga hauna kuongororwa. Kana kuedzwa kakawanda. Uye iye "achavhota ne ruble yake" yeiyi kana kuti mugadziri wemishonga.
Wedzero 4.
Ini ndinofunga zvakakosha kuti utarise mupukunyuki mufunge kana uchigadzira AI, muchina kudzidza algorithms, nezvimwe.
Avo. sanganisira muchirongwa chekudzidzisa kwete mienzaniso inozivikanwa chete, asiwo imwe delta, zvichida kunyange yezvinyorwa zvinyorwa zve "zvinogoneka zvisingazivikanwe".
Uchishandisa muenzaniso weAI "kudhirowa", izvi zvinogona kunge zviri, mamiriro, "van Gogh + delta", ipapo nehombe delta kukosha, muchina uchagadzira sefa yakavakirwa pavan Gogh, asi zvakasiyana zvachose kubva kwaari.
Kudzidziswa kwakafanana kungadaro inobatsira apo pane kushomeka kwedata: mushonga, genetics, quantum physics, nyeredzi, nezvimwe.
(Ndinokumbira ruregerero kana ndatsanangura "zvisina kururama").
Cherechedza (ndinotarisira iyo yekupedzisira)
Kune wese akaverenga kusvika kumagumo - "Ndinokutendai." Ndiri kufara kuona "bookmarks" uye "maonero" ako.
Source: www.habr.com