"Golden ratio" mune zvehupfumi - 2

Izvi zvinozadzisa dingindira re "Golden Ratio" mune zvehupfumi - chii?", Yakasimudzwa mukati kubudiswa kwekupedzisira. Ngatiswededzei dambudziko rekugovaniswa kwezviwanikwa kubva kune imwe kona isati yabatwa.

Ngatitorei iyo yakapusa modhi yechizvarwa chechiitiko: kukanda coin uye mukana wekuwana misoro kana miswe. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti:

Kuwana "misoro" kana "miswe" pakukanda kwega kwega kunokwanisika zvakaenzana - 50 kusvika 50%
Nekukanda kukuru kwekukanda, nhamba yemadonhwe kune rumwe rutivi rwemari inoswedera kune nhamba yemadonhwe kune imwe.

Izvi zvinoreva kuti, nekunyora mhedzisiro yemisoro yapfuura uye kutarisa pachiyero cheiyo nhevedzano, tinogona kutarisira kurasikirwa kwemisoro (uye kusadonha kwemiswe) sechinhu chinotevera chenhevedzano ine mukana mukuru kana mudiki, zvichienderana nemigumisiro yekurasikirwa kwekare. Zvinoenderana neruzivo rwemunhu wese akaita nhevedzano yakadai.

Sezvinoratidzwa nenhamba (kudzivisa kudzokorora, ona mienzaniso yemagirafu mukati mabhuku), mune akasiyana masisitimu ehupfumi - sekuyedza nemari - imwe yenguva-inogoneka kugoverwa kwemitengo inoonekwa. Uye zvinonyanya kunakidza kuratidza uku kugovaniswa kwemitengo sedhiyagiramu yeLorenz (ona mufananidzo uri pazasi mu "Mari yeCompany"). Nezvimwe zvikanganiso zvidiki mukufungidzira, curve iyi inoshanduka kuita denderedzwa arc (yezasi kurudyi kota). Kuongorora kwakadzama kwenhamba yekugovewa kwezviwanikwa kunoratidza kuwanda kwepamusoro kwearc yedenderedzwa munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzehupfumi (zvakare, ona chinyorwa chapfuura) Uye chiyero chekuva pedyo kwekugoverwa kuripo kwemari kune iyi referensi inotibvumira kutonga "hutano" hwehupfumi huri kutariswa. "Hutano" apa hunoreva kupona kwehurongwa uye kugona kwayo kukura.

Ngatitarisei zvikamu zviviri zvezviitwa zvehupfumi zvakada kufanana, asi chimwe nechimwe chine zvimwe zvinhu.

Mari yekambani

Chirongwa chekuRussia Leonarus v.1.02 inoshandisa nzira yataurwa pamusoro apa (ona. www.leonarus.ru/?p=1368) inoongorora mashandisirwo emari kubva pakuona kwekusimba kwekusimudzirwa kwesangano rehupfumi sehurongwa hwakakosha. Inoita izvi nekuongorora kugoverwa kwemitengo uye inovimbisa kushandiswa kwakanakisa kwezviwanikwa zviripo, yambiro pamusoro pekutsauka kwakapinza kubva kune yakanyanya kunaka system.

Kushandisa mari inoenderana neiyi pateni kunovimbisa kusununguka kwakanyanya kweiyo iripo system uye nekupona kwayo kwakanyanya.

Chirongwa ichi chinowanikwa kune mushandisi anoziva neExcel uye ane ruzivo mukuronga uye zvebhizinesi zviitiko. Iyo purogiramu inokubvumira kuti uongorore mamiriro ehupfumi ebhizinesi uye kugadzirisa kune yakarongwa bhajeti zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu aripo.

Iko kukosha kwekuongorora mamiriro ehupfumi huri kuwedzera nhasi, sezvo kubhuroka kwemasangano emutemo kuri kuwedzera kuwanda.

Muna 2017, vanopfuura 9 zviuru zvemabhizinesi vakarega kuvapo. Nhamba dzebhizinesi diki dzekubhuroka dzinoratidza kuti inenge 30% yakavharwa nekuda kwekutadza.

Nhamba dzekubhuroka kwebhizinesi dzakawedzerawo muna 2017. Makambani anopfuura 13,5 zviuru akaparara muRussia. Kuwedzera kwaiva 7,7%. Muchikamu chekutanga che2018, 3,17 zviuru zvemabhizinesi akanzi haana mari. Kuwedzera kwaiva 5%.

Chirongwa cheLeonarus v.1.02 chakanaka nekuti chinokutendera kuti ugadzirise mari inotarisirwa, uchiruramisa kudzikira/kuwedzerwa kwemitengo zvichienderana nemhedzisiro yaunoda: kuwana purofiti yakarongwa. Mabhizinesi ari padhuze nehurongwa hwemutengo kune anodiwa Lorenz dhayagiramu ine exponent yevaviri vane purofiti yakanyanya (Bueva, T. M. (2002) Kushandiswa kweakagadziridzwa Lorenz macurves mumatambudziko ekugoverwa kwehomwe).

Sechinyorwa: iyo purogiramu yemapasuru ayo inogona kubatsira zvakanyanya kwete kumabhizinesi chete, asiwo kudzimba. Semuyenzaniso, pakupa imba nezvokudya, zvinonaka zvakati wandei zvinotengwa, chikafu chakareruka chekubika, zviyo, zviyo, makemikari emumba madiki anounganidzwa mudiki ... .

Uye kana mashandisiro ako akatsanangurwa neakasarudzika Lorenz dhizaini, saka hupenyu hwemba yako hwakachengeteka mune zvemari. Chero mari inoenderana nechati ichi-zvisinei kuti yakawandisa sei-haizoputi bhajeti yako.

Purogiramu yacho inogona kubatsira kunyange amai vemba vane ruzivo kana vachida kuderedza zvakanyanya bhajeti. Uye mune yakajairika mode, inodiwa kuti utarise mari yakarongwa kare. Iyi inshuwarisi inokubvumira kuti udzivise kukanganisa kwakakomba uye netsaona inopera mukutarisisa paunenge uchigovera mari.

Panguva imwecheteyo, nhamo, tinofanira kubvuma kuti muchimiro chayo chemazuva ano purogiramu ndeyekunyomba uye inenge isingasviki kune vashandisi vasina ruzivo. Chishandiso chinobatsira chekushandisa pamba hachisati chagadziriswa ... Chero zano uye mazano e "kumhara" Leonarus v.1.02 anogamuchirwa.

Investment project analysis

Iyi inyaya yekuongorora kwenyanzvi, kana isiri yekuchinja mari, asi pamusoro pekujekesa njodzi dzepurojekiti. Izvi zvinoitwa apo, mukuwedzera kune dzakatoshandiswa nzira dzekuongorora iyo yakarongwa yekudyara, iyo mutengo chimiro inoongororwa padyo neiyo referenzi Lorenz dhayagiramu.

Chiitiko chiripo hachina kukwana kuita mhedziso dzechokwadi panyaya iyi. Nekudaro, zvichibva pane theoretical zvivakwa uye ruzivo rwesaiti www.leonarus.ru, tinogona kufungidzira kuti kutsauswa kwemari yeprojekti kwakasimba kubva kune referensi arc kuruboshwe, ngozi huru yezvinoitika zvisingatarisirwi nekuda kweimwe yekutanga "looseness" yezvirongwa. Uye iyo yakakura kutsauka kune kurudyi, zvinonyanya kuitika ndezvekuti murongi / maneja weprojekiti anowanzo kuve akanyanya kudzorwa uye purojekiti haina kukwana kugadzirisa kugona kugadzirisa matambudziko aachasangana nawo.

Aya fungidziro anonatswa nekutarisa avhareji mutengo wepurojekiti uchishandisa equations ye quantum mechanics. Asi kunyangwe pasina mamwe maverengero, kutsauka kubva pareferensi chati kunogona kukanganisa sarudzo yekudyara ine ruzivo. Ingave iyo purojekiti icharambwa nekuda kwekuwedzera kwengozi, kana iyo dhizaini dhizaini inofanirwa kufunga nezvekuwedzera kwengozi yeprojekiti.

Mukupedzisa

Iyo yakapfava yehupfumi sisitimu inonyatso hurongwa ine kusava nechokwadi kwepamusoro nekuda kwekusiyana kwezvikamu zvayo uye hukama hwakasiyana pakati pavo. Mamiriro ekushandiswa kwemari yakarongwa kana ikozvino haisi iyo yega yakakosha chikamu chehurongwa. Nekudaro, ndeimwe yeayo anogona kugadziriswa nemamaneja. Uye kunyangwe paine misiyano yese mumamiriro ezvinhu ehupfumi hunoitika, tinogona kufunga kuti iyo yakakwana (kubva pakuona kwekupona uye kusimudzira kwesangano rehupfumi) kugovera zviwanikwa kunotsanangurwa nereferenzi Lorenz dhayagiramu. Inogona kunzi "golden ratio" mune zvehupfumi uye inogona kubatsira zvakanyanya mukuronga nekuongorora hupfumi.

“Ndagara ndichiona kuti pakugadzirira kurwa, zvirongwa hazvibatsiri, asi kuronga hakuna zvakunobatsira.”
D. Eisenhower, mutungamiriri weAllied forces muEurope (1944-1945)

Kuti uwane kukwana:

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Source: www.habr.com