Mashoko mashoma pamusoro pe "golden ratio" mupfungwa yechinyakare
Zvinotendwa kuti kana chikamu chakakamurwa kuita zvidimbu nenzira yekuti chikamu chidiki chakabatana nehombe, sezvo chikuru chiri kuchikamu chose, ipapo kupatsanurwa kwakadaro kunopa chikamu che 1/1,618, iyo iyo vaGiriki vekare, vachiikwereta kubva kune vekare vekare, vanonzi "golden ratio." Uye kuti akawanda ezvivakwa zvimiro - chiyero cheiyo contours yezvivakwa, hukama pakati pezvinhu zvavo zvakakosha - kutanga nemapiramidhi eEjipitori uye kupera neiyo theoretical kuvaka kweLe Corbusier - yaive yakavakirwa pachikamu ichi.
Iyo inoenderanawo nenhamba dzeFibonacci, iyo spiral inopa yakadzama geometric mufananidzo wechikamu ichi.
Uyezve, zviyero zvemuviri wemunhu (kubva pasi kusvika paguvhu, kubva paguvhu kusvika kumusoro, kubva kumusoro kusvika kuminwe yeruoko rwakasimudzwa), kutanga kubva pachiyero chakakodzera chakaonekwa muMiddle Ages (Vitruvian man, etc. .), uye kupera neanthropometric zviyero zvehuwandu hweUSSR, zvichiri padyo nechikamu ichi.
Uye kana tikawedzera kuti nhamba dzakafanana dzakawanikwa muzvinhu zvakasiyana zvachose zvipenyu: mollusk shells, kurongeka kwembeu mune sunflower uye mumisidhari makoni, saka zviri pachena kuti nei nhamba isina musoro kutanga ne 1,618 yakanzi "humwari" - mitsva yayo inogona. kutevedzwa kunyangwe muchimiro chenyeredzi dzinokwevera dzakananga kuFibonacci spirals!
Tichifunga nezvemienzaniso yese iri pamusoro, tinogona kufungidzira:
- isu tiri kubata ne "data hombe" zvechokwadi,
- kunyangwe kusvika pakufungidzira kwekutanga, vanoratidza imwe, kana isiri yepasirese, saka kugovaniswa kwakapararira kwe "chikamu chegoridhe" uye kukosha padyo nayo.
In economics
Lorenz madhayagiramu anozivikanwa zvakanyanya uye anoshandiswa zvakanyanya kuona mari yemumba. Aya maturusi ane simba macroeconomic ane akasiyana siyana uye kunatsiridza (decile coefficient, Gini index) anoshandiswa muhuwandu hwemagariro nehupfumi kuenzanisa nyika nehunhu hwadzo uye inogona kuve hwaro hwekuita sarudzo huru dzezvematongerwo enyika uye bhajeti mumunda wemitero, hutano hwehutano. , kusimudzira zvirongwa zvebudiriro yenyika nematunhu.
Uye kunyange zvazvo mune zvakajairika zuva nezuva kuziva mari uye mari yakabatanidzwa zvakasimba, muGoogle izvi hazvisi izvo ... Zvinoshamisa, ndakakwanisa kuwana hukama pakati pemifananidzo yeLorenz uye kugoverwa kwemari kubva kune vanyori vaviri veRussia (ndingave ndinoonga. kana mumwe munhu anoziva mabasa akafanana semuRussia neChirungu-chikamu cheInternet).
Chekutanga idissertation yaT. M. Bueva. Dissertation yakapihwa, kunyanya, kukwirisa mitengo kumapurazi ehuku eMari.
Mumwe munyori, V. V. Matokhin (mutual links kubva kune vanyori iripo) inosvika nyaya yacho pamwero mukuru. Matokhin, nyanzvi yefizikisi nedzidzo yepuraimari, ari kuita nhamba yekugadzirisa data rinoshandiswa mukuita sarudzo dzekutungamira, pamwe nekuongorora kuchinjika uye kutonga kwemakambani.
Pfungwa nemienzaniso yakapihwa pazasi inotorwa kubva kumabasa aV. Matokhin nevamwe vake (Matokhin, 1995), (Antoniou et al., 2002), (Kryanev, et al., 1998), (Matokhin et al. 2018) . Panyaya iyi, zvinofanira kuwedzerwa kuti kukanganisa kunobvira mukududzirwa kwemabasa avo ndiyo chete pfuma yemunyori wemitsara iyi uye haigoni kuverengerwa kune zvinyorwa zvedzidzo zvepakutanga.
Kuenderana kusingatarisirwi
Zvinoratidzwa mumagirafu ari pazasi.
1. Kugoverwa kwezvipo zvemakwikwi emabasa esainzi uye ehunyanzvi pasi peChirongwa cheHurumende "High-temperature superconductivity". (Matokhin, 1995)
Fig.1. Zvikamu mukugoverwa kwegore negore kwemari yemapurojekiti muna 1988-1994.
Hunhu hukuru hwekugoverwa kwegore hunoratidzwa muTebhurari 3, apo SN ndiyo mari yegore negore yakagoverwa (mumamiriyoni rubles), uye N ndiyo nhamba yezvirongwa zvakabhadharwa. Tichifunga nezve chokwadi chekuti nekufamba kwemakore kuumbwa kwega kwevakwikwidzi jury, bhajeti remakwikwi uye kunyange chiyero chemari chakashanduka (pamberi pekuvandudzwa kwa1991 uye mushure), kugadzikana kwema curves chaiwo nekufamba kwenguva kunoshamisa. Iyo dema bhaa pagirafu inoumbwa neyekuyedza mapoinzi.
| 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | ||
| S | 273 | 362 | 432 | 553 | 345 | 353 | 253 | X |
| Sn | 143.1 | 137.6 | 136.9 | 411.2 | 109.4 | 920 | 977 | Y |
Tafura 3
2. Mutengo wekutengesa wakabatana nekutengesa kwezvinyorwa (Kotlyar, 1989)
Fig.2
3. Tariff hurongwa hwemihoro yerenji
Semuenzaniso wekugadzira dhayagiramu, data yakatorwa kubva mugwaro "Vedomosti: ingani yakajairika muhoro wepagore wega wega wega wega" (Suvorov, 2014) ("Sayenzi yekukunda").
|
Mupunga. 3. Dhiagiramu yekuenzana kwemihoro yegore negore nerenji |
4. Avhareji yepurogiramu yebasa yeAmerican middle manager (Mintzberg, 1973)
Fig.4
Iwo akaunzwa akamisikidzwa magirafu anoratidza kuti pane yakajairika maitiro muzviitiko zvehupfumi zvavanoratidza. Tichifunga misiyano yakakura mune chaiyo yebasa rehupfumi, munzvimbo yayo uye nguva, zvinogoneka kuti kufanana kwemagirafu kunotsanangurwa neimwe mamiriro akakosha ekushanda kwehurongwa hwehupfumi. Zvisiri zvimwe kunze kwezviuru zvemakore zvezviitiko zvehupfumi, zvichibva pahuwandu hukuru hwemiyedzo uye zvikanganiso, zvidzidzo zvechiitiko ichi vakawana imwe nzira yakakwana yekugovera zviwanikwa. Uye ivo vanoishandisa intuitively mumabasa avo azvino. Iyi fungidziro iri muchibvumirano chakanaka neinozivikanwa Pareto musimboti: 20% yekuedza kwedu inoburitsa 80% yemhedzisiro. Chimwe chinhu chakafanana chiri kuitika zviri pachena pano. Iwo magirafu akapihwa anoratidza epirical pateni, iyo, kana ikashandurwa kuita dhayagiramu yeLorentz, inotsanangurwa nekururama kwakakwana ine alpha exponent yakaenzana ne 2. Neichi exponent, dhayagiramu yeLorenz inoshanduka kuita chikamu chedenderedzwa.
Tinogona kudaidza chimiro ichi, icho chisati chine zita rakagadzikana, kupona. Nekufananidza nekupona musango, kupona kwehurongwa hwehupfumi hunotarwa nekugadzirisa kwayo kwakagadziridzwa kumamiriro emagariro ehupfumi uye kugona kuchinjika kune shanduko yemusika mamiriro.
Izvi zvinoreva kuti hurongwa umo kugoverwa kwemitengo iri pedyo neyakanaka (ine alpha exponent yakaenzana ne2, kana kugoverwa kwemari "kupoteredza denderedzwa") ine mukana mukuru wekuchengetedzwa muchimiro chayo chazvino. Zvinokosha kucherechedza kuti mune dzimwe nguva kugovera kwakadaro kunogadzirisa purofiti yakakura yebhizinesi. Somuenzaniso, pano. Iyo yakadzikira iyo yekutsauka coefficient kubva kune yakanaka, inokwira iyo purofiti yebhizinesi (Bueva, 2002).
Tafura (chidimbu)
| Zita repurazi, dunhu | Profitability (%) | Deviation coefficient | |
| 1 | State Unitary Enterprise p/f "Volzhskaya" Volzhsky dunhu | 13,0 | 0,336 |
| 2 | SPK p/f "Gornomariyskaya" | 11,1 | 0,18 |
| 3 | UMSP s-z "Zvenigovsky" | 33,7 | 0,068 |
| 4 | CJSC "Mariyskoe" Medvedevsky dunhu | 7,5 | 0,195 |
| 5 | JSC "Teplichnoe" Medvedevsky dunhu | 16,3 | 0,107 |
| ... | |||
| 47 | SEC (k-z) "Rassvet" Sovetsky dunhu | 3,2 | 0,303 |
| 48 | NW "Bronevik" Kilemarsky dunhu | 14,2 | 0,117 |
| 49 | SEC Agricultural Academy "Avangard" Morkinsky dunhu | 6,5 | 0,261 |
| 50 | SHA k-z im. Petrov Morkinsky dunhu | 22,5 | 0,135 |
Mhedziso Dzinoshanda
Paunenge uchironga mari yemakambani uye dzimba, zvinobatsira kuvaka Lorenz curve zvichibva pazviri uye kuienzanisa neyakakodzera. Kana dhayagiramu yako iri padhuze nekunakisa, ndipo pazvinoita kuti uri kuronga nemazvo uye kuti basa rako richabudirira. Kuva pedyo kwakadaro kunosimbisa kuti zvirongwa zvako zviri padyo neruzivo rwekuita kwehupfumi hwevanhu, hwakaiswa mumitemo inogamuchirwa inogamuchirwa sePareto musimboti.
Zvisinei, zvinogona kufungidzirwa kuti pano tiri kutaura nezvekushanda kwehupfumi hwakakura hunotarisana nekubudirira. Kana isu tisiri kutaura nezvekuwedzera purofiti, asi, semuenzaniso, nezve basa rekuvandudza kambani kana kuwedzera zvakanyanya chikamu chayo chemusika, mutengo wako wekugovera curve unotsauka kubva padenderedzwa.
Zviri pachena kuti munyaya yekutanga-nehupfumi hwayo chaiyo, mufananidzo weLorenz, unoenderana nepamusoro-soro yekubudirira, ichatsaukawo kubva padenderedzwa. Zvinogona kufungidzira kuti kutsauka kwemutengo wekugovera curve mudenderedzwa zvinoenderana nenjodzi dziri mbiri dzakawedzera uye kudzikira kuchinjika kwekambani. Nekudaro, pasina kuvimba nedata hombe yezviverengero zvekutanga-ups (zvese zvakabudirira uye zvisina kubudirira), zvakadzika pasi, fungidziro inokwanisa hazviite.
Zvinoenderana neimwe fungidziro, kutsauka kweiyo mutengo wekugovera curve kubva kudenderedzwa rekunze kunogona kunge kuri chiratidzo chezvese zviri zviviri kudzora kwakanyanyisa kwekutonga uye chiratidzo chekubhuroka kuri kuuya. Kuti uedze iyi hypothesis, imwe nheyo yereferensi inodiwa zvakare, iyo, senge iri nyaya yekutanga-ups, haigone kuvepo munharaunda yeruzhinji.
Pane mhedziso
Mabhuku makuru ekutanga pamusoro penyaya iyi akadzokera ku1995 (Matokhin, 1995). Uye izvo zvishoma zvinozivikanwa zveaya mabasa, kunyangwe ari epasirese uye zvakanyanya kushandiswa kutsva kwemamodheru uye maturusi anoshandiswa zvakanyanya nevehupfumi, anoramba mune imwe pfungwa chakavanzika ...
Source: www.habr.com