Janaayo 11, 1914, hadal ka yimid Henry Ford ayaa ka soo muuqday New York Times:
βWaxaan rajeynayaa in sannad gudihiis aan bilaabi doono soo saarista baabuur koronto ah. Ma jecli inaan ka hadlo waxyaabaha sanadka soo socda, laakiin waxaan rabaa inaan wax kaaga sheego qorshahayga. Xaqiiqdu waxay tahay in aniga iyo Mr. Edison aanu ka shaqaynaynay dhawr sano si aanu u abuurno baabuur koronto oo jaban oo waxtar leh. Waxa loo sameeyay tijaabo, waxaana ka dheregsanahay in dariiqa guushu ay caddahay. Caqabadda haysata baabuurta korontadu ilaa hadda waxay ahayd in ay abuuraan baytari khafiif ah oo ka shaqayn kara masaafo dheer isaga oo aan dib u dallacin. Mr. Edison waxa uu in muddo ah tijaabinayay baytari noocan oo kale ah."
Laakiin waxbaa khaldamay...
Thomas Edison oo la socda Korontada Detroit
Daabacaaddani waa sii wadida macquul ah ee maqaalkeygii hore
meeday halbeeggii r waxay saamaysaa heerka kobaca saamiga suuqa, maadaama uu yahay jibbaaran - marka ay korodhka isugeyntani kordho, sida ugu dhakhsaha badan ee tignoolajiyada cusubi u guulaysan doonto suuqa, i.e. Sannad kasta tiknoolajiyadu waa inay noqotaa mid xiiso u leh dad badan sababtoo ah ku habboonaanta. K isu-dheellitirnaan qeexaya awoodda korriinka ee tignoolajiyada cusub, i.e. Qiimaha hooseeya ee K, tignoolajiyadu ma awoodi doonto inay qabato suuqa oo dhan, laakiin waxay awood u yeelan doontaa oo kaliya inay ku guuleysato qaybta suuqa oo ay ka xiiso badan tahay tignoolajiyada hore.
Bayaanka dhibaatadu waa in la helo halbeegyada lagama maarmaanka u ah isla'egta saadka taas oo noo ogolaanaysa in aan saadaalino horumarinta warshadaha baabuurta korontada ee rakaabka ah:
- "Year Zero" waa sanadka ay kala badh baabuurta rakaabka ah ee lagu iibiyo adduunka ay yeelan doonaan matoor koronto (P0=0,5, t=0);
- heerka kobaca saamiyada suuqar) baabuurta korontada.
Xaaladdan oo kale, aan nidhaahno:
- baabuurta korontadu waxay gabi ahaanba ka saari doonaan baabuurta leh matoorada gubashada gudaha (ICE) suuqa (K=1), maadaama aanan arag muuqaal u oggolaanaya kala qaybinta suuqa baabuurta rakaabka.
Suuqa lagu iibiyo baabuurta waaweyn iyo qalabka gaarka ah ayaan la tixgalinin marka la diyaarinayo qaabka, iyadoo weli aysan jirin wax suuq ah oo loogu talagalay gawaarida korontada ku shaqeeya ee warshadahan.
- Waxaan hadda ku noolnahay "waqti xun" (P(t) <0) iyo shaqada waxaan u isticmaali doonaa ka-dhaafka marka loo eego "eber sanadka" waqtigeena (t-t0).
Tirakoobyada tirada iibka baabuurta rakaabka ayaa laga soo qaatay
Tirakoobka iibka baabuurta korontada oo laga soo qaatay
Tirakoobka ka hor 2012 ee baabuurta korontada ayaa aad u yar oo aan xisaabta lagu darin doonin daraasadda.
Natiijo ahaan, waxaanu haynaa xogta soo socota:
Barnaamijka lagu helayo Eberkii Sanadka iyo heerka kobaca suuqa
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math
x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468, 64341693]) # ΠΊΠΎΠ»-Π²ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π»Π΅Π³ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠ½
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247, 1940147]) # ΠΊΠΎΠ»-Π²ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π»Π΅Π³ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»Π΅ΠΉ
y = y2/y1 #Π΄ΠΎΠ»Ρ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»Π΅ΠΉ Π² ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡΠ²Π΅ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»Π΅ΠΉ
ymax=1 #ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΎΡ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ
Gmax=2025 #Π³ΠΎΠ΄ Π΄Π»Ρ Π½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΈΡΠΊΠ° "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°"
rmax=0.35 #Π½Π°ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½Ρ
k=1 #ΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΡΡ "1" ΠΈΠ· ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΡΡΠ»ΠΊΠΈ, ΡΡΠΎ ΡΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡ Π»Π΅Π³ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΠΌΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ Ρ ΠΠΠ‘
p0=0.5 # ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΠ° Π² "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠΉ Π³ΠΎΠ΄"
for j in range(10): # ΡΠΈΠΊΠ» ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π±ΠΎΡΠ° "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΡΡ
Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ²"
x0=2025+j
r=0.35
for i in range(10): # ΡΠΈΠΊΠ» ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π±ΠΎΡΠ° ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° Π² ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠΌ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Ρ"
r=0.25+0.02*i
y4=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))-y
# print(str(x0).ljust(20), str(r).ljust(20), max(abs(y4)))
if max(abs(y4))<=ymax: # ΠΏΠΎΠΈΡΠΊ ΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈΠ· ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π²Π½ΡΡΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΠΆΠ΄ΠΎΠΌ ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠ΅ r
ymax=max(abs(y4))
Gmax=x0
rmax=r
print(str(Gmax).ljust(20), str(rmax).ljust(20), ymax) # Π²ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ "Π½ΡΠ»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°", ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅Π½ΡΠ° r ΠΈ ΠΌΠ°ΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΈΠ· ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ
Natiijada barnaamijka, qiyamka soo socda ayaa la doortay:
Eber sanadka waa 2028.
Isku-dhafka kobaca - 0.37
Weecinta ugu badan ee xogta tirakoobka ee qiimaha shaqadu waa 0.005255.
Shaxda shaqada ee u dhaxaysa 2012 iyo 2019 waxay u egtahay sidan:
Garaafka ugu dambeeya ee saadaalinta ilaa 2050 wuxuu u eg yahay sidan:
Shaxda ayaa muujinaysa goynta 99% ee suuqa oo dhan, i.e. Marka la gaaro 2040, baabuurta korontadu waxay si buuxda u beddeli doonaan baabuurta matoorada gubashada gudaha.
Barnaamijka garaafaynta shaqada
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math
x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468, 64341693])
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247, 1940147])
y = y2/y1
k=1
p0=0.5
x0=2028
r=0.37
y1=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))
#Π‘ΡΡΠΎΠΈΠΌ Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΊ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π·ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ 2012 ΠΈ 2019 Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5")
plt.grid()
ax.plot(x, y, 'o', color='tab:brown')
ax.plot(x, y1)
#Π‘ΡΡΠΎΠΈΠΌ Π³ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΊ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π·ΠΊΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ 2010 ΠΈ 2050 Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΠΌΠΈ
x = np.linspace(2010, 2050)
y2 = [k*p0*math.e**(r*(i-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(i-x0))-1)) for i in x]
y3 = 0.99+0*x
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5")
ax.set_xlim([2010, 2050])
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
plt.grid()
plt.plot(x, y2, x, y3)
natiijooyinka
Iyadoo la raacayo caqli-gal la mid ah markii la qeexayo taariikhda horumarinta baabuurta leh matoorada gubashada gudaha, waxaan isku dayay inaan saadaaliyo horumarinta warshadaha baabuurta korontada ee rakaabka ah oo ku salaysan xogta tirakoobka ee la heli karo.
Natiijooyinka la helay ayaa tilmaamaya in marka la gaaro 2030, kala bar baabuurta rakaabka ah ee lagu iibiyo adduunka ay yeelan doonaan matoor koronto, sanadka 2040-ka, baabuurta rakaabka ah ee leh matoorada gubashada gudaha ayaa noqon doona wax la soo dhaafay.
Dabcan, wixii ka dambeeya 2030, dadka qaarkood waxay kaxaysan doonaan baabuur shidaal ah oo ay iibsadeen kahor 2030, laakiin waxay ogaan doonaan in iibkooda soo socda uu noqon doono baabuur koronto ah.
Heerka kobaca baabuurta korontada ayaa 4 jeer ka badan heerka kobaca baabuurta leh mishiinnada gubashada gudaha, taas oo soo jeedinaysa in tignoolajiyada cusubi ay nolosheenna si degdeg ah u soo galayaan, oo noqdaan qayb ka mid ah nolol maalmeedkeena (halkan waxaan ku xasuusannaa telefoonnada gacanta) .
Sannadaha soo socda, dhibaatada Edison uu awoodi waayay inuu xalliyo waa in la xalliyaa - batari ku filan oo awood u leh oo u oggolaan doona waqti dheer oo u dhexeeya saldhigyada dallaca.
Si loo abuuro shabakad ka mid ah saldhigyada dallacaadda oo u dhiganta shabakada hadda jirta ee saldhigyada shidaalka, waxaa lagama maarmaan ah in la casriyeeyo shabakadaha korontada ee hadda jira magaalooyinka waaweyn iyo waddooyinka waaweyn.
Sidoo kale, koritaanka iibka baabuurta korontada ayaa caqabad ku noqon doonta
PS
Haddii Edison uu awood u lahaa inuu xalliyo dhibaatada loo xilsaaray, markaa "da'da saliidda" xitaa ma aysan bilaaban ...
Isticmaalayaasha diiwaangashan oo keliya ayaa ka qaybqaadan kara sahanka.
Goorma ayuu qof kastaa kaxaysan doonaa baabuurta korontada?
-
9,5%2030, qof kastaa wuxuu u wareegayaa baabuurta korontada ku shaqeysa, ma aha nus18
-
20,0%Marka la gaadho 2040, qof kastaa waxa hubaal ah in uu u wareegayo baabuurta korantada38
-
48,4%wax ka yar 2050
-
22,1%Baabuurka korontadu waligiis ma beddeli doono baabuur shidaal42
190 isticmaale ayaa u codeeyay. 37 isticmaale ayaa ka aamusay.
Source: www.habr.com