{"id":30044,"date":"2019-10-31T21:33:22","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T18:33:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/blog\/kak-my-predskazyvali-ottok-podojdya-k-nemu-kak-k-stihijnomu-bedstviyu\/"},"modified":"2019-10-31T21:33:22","modified_gmt":"2019-10-31T18:33:22","slug":"kak-my-predskazyvali-ottok-podojdya-k-nemu-kak-k-stihijnomu-bedstviyu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prohoster.info\/sq\/blog\/kak-my-predskazyvali-ottok-podojdya-k-nemu-kak-k-stihijnomu-bedstviyu","title":{"rendered":"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjidhur nj\u00eb problem, \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme ta shikosh at\u00eb nga nj\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim tjet\u00ebr. Edhe n\u00ebse n\u00eb 10 vitet e fundit k\u00ebto probleme jan\u00eb zgjidhur me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn metod\u00eb me efekte t\u00eb ndryshme, nuk ka garanci q\u00eb ky \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebnyra e vetme.<\/p>\n<p>Ekziston nj\u00eb tem\u00eb si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb ikja e klient\u00ebve. Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fenomen i pashmangsh\u00ebm, sepse klient\u00ebt e \u00e7do kompanie mund t\u00eb ndalen nga p\u00ebrdorimi i produkteve ose sh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb saj p\u00ebr shum\u00eb arsye. Natyrisht, p\u00ebr kompanin\u00eb, ikja \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb veprim q\u00eb, edhe pse natyror, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aspak i d\u00ebshiruar, prandaj t\u00eb gjith\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen ta minimizojn\u00eb at\u00eb. Edhe m\u00eb mir\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb parashikosh mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e ikjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb kategorie p\u00ebrdoruesish, ose t\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruesi t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb, dhe t\u00eb ofrosh disa masa p\u00ebr mbajtjen e tyre.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00eb analizosh dhe t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqesh t\u00eb mbash klientin, n\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur, duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebhet, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn, p\u00ebr k\u00ebto arsye:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>t\u00ebrheqja e klient\u00ebve t\u00eb rinj \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e shtrenjt\u00eb se procedurat e mbajtjes<\/b>. T\u00ebrheqja e klient\u00ebve t\u00eb rinj zakonisht k\u00ebrkon shpenzime t\u00eb caktuara (reklamim), nd\u00ebrsa klient\u00ebt ekzistues mund t\u00eb aktivizohen me nj\u00eb ofert\u00eb speciale me kushte t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta;<\/li>\n<li><b>kuptimi i arsyeve t\u00eb ikjes s\u00eb klient\u00ebve \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7el\u00ebsi p\u00ebr p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimin e produkteve dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve<\/b>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nEkzistojn\u00eb qasje standarde p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar ikjen. Por n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga kampionatet e AI, ne vendos\u00ebm t\u00eb provojm\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjen e Weibullit p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00ebllim. Ai p\u00ebrdoret m\u00eb shpesh p\u00ebr analiz\u00ebn e mbijetes\u00ebs, parashikimin e motit, analiz\u00ebn e katastrofave natyrore, inxhinierin\u00eb industriale dhe t\u00eb ngjashme. Shp\u00ebrndarja e Weibullit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb funksion ve\u00e7or\u00eb i shp\u00ebrndarjes, i parametrizuar nga dy parameter\u00eb. <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/d30a25becc44269d51957349c6e8b4a0.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/> dhe <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/42092030604bf54a98c8379fd532bffe.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/>. <\/p>\n<p><noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/company\/rostelecom\/blog\/444694\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/62e1933c8335dd16d765f0e358952d84.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><\/a><\/noindex><br \/>\n<i>Wikipedia<\/i><\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb interesante, por p\u00ebr parashikimin e ikjes dhe n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi n\u00eb fintech, p\u00ebrdoret jo aq shpesh. Pas m\u00ebposht, do t\u00eb tregojm\u00eb se si ne (Laboratori i Analiz\u00ebs Inteligjente t\u00eb Dh\u00ebnave) e realizuam k\u00ebt\u00eb, duke fituar p\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr medaljen e art\u00eb n\u00eb Kampionatin e Inteligjenc\u00ebs Artificiale n\u00eb kategorin\u00eb \"AI n\u00eb banka.\"<br \/>\n<noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" name=\"habracut\"><\/a><\/noindex><\/p>\n<h2>Rreth ikjes n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi<\/h2>\n<p>\nLe t\u00eb kuptojm\u00eb pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb lidhjen midis largimit t\u00eb klient\u00ebve dhe r\u00ebnd\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb tij. Nj\u00eb baz\u00eb e q\u00ebndrueshme klient\u00ebsh \u00ebsht\u00eb thelb\u00ebsore p\u00ebr biznesin. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb baz\u00eb, mund t\u00eb hyjn\u00eb klient\u00eb t\u00eb rinj, p\u00ebr shembull, duke iu njohur produkteve ose sh\u00ebrbimeve p\u00ebrmes reklamave, dhe pas nj\u00eb periudhe t\u00eb caktuar, ata mund t\u00eb ndalojn\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruri. Ky periudh\u00eb quhet \"Cikli i jet\u00ebs s\u00eb klientit\" - nj\u00eb term q\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruan fazat q\u00eb kalon nj\u00eb klient, fillimisht kur njihet me nj\u00eb produkt, merr vendim p\u00ebr blerje, paguan, p\u00ebrdor dhe b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb konsumator besnik, dhe n\u00eb fund ndalon s\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruri p\u00ebr arsye t\u00eb ndryshme. Prandaj, largimi n\u00ebnkupton faz\u00ebn p\u00ebrfundimtare t\u00eb ciklit t\u00eb jet\u00ebs s\u00eb klientit, kur klienti ndalon s\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruri sh\u00ebrbimet, dhe kjo p\u00ebr biznesin do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se klienti ka ndaluar s\u00eb sjelluri t\u00eb ardhura dhe ndonj\u00eb dobi tjet\u00ebr. <\/p>\n<p>\u00c7do klient i bank\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb person specifik q\u00eb zgjidh nj\u00eb kart\u00eb bankare t\u00eb caktuar sipas nevojave t\u00eb tij. Ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb udh\u00ebton shpesh - do t\u00eb ishte e dobishme nj\u00eb kart\u00eb me milje. B\u00ebn shum\u00eb blerje - p\u00ebrsh\u00ebndetje, karta me keshback. Blerjet kryhen kryesisht n\u00eb disa dyqane - dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ka plastik\u00eb partner\u00ebsh t\u00eb posa\u00e7me. Sigurisht, ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb karta zgjidhet edhe sipas kriterit \"Sh\u00ebrbimi m\u00eb i lir\u00eb\". N\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, k\u00ebtu ka mjaft variabla.<\/p>\n<p>Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr faktor \u00ebsht\u00eb se klienti zgjidh gjithashtu bank\u00ebn - \u00e7far\u00eb kuptimi ka t\u00eb zgjedh\u00ebsh kart\u00ebn e nj\u00eb banke q\u00eb ka deg\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb, kur ti je nga Khabarovsku? Edhe n\u00ebse karta e atij banke \u00ebsht\u00eb dyfish m\u00eb e favorshme, pranueshm\u00ebria e deg\u00ebve t\u00eb bank\u00ebs af\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb ende nj\u00eb kriter i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm. Po, vitin 2019 e kemi k\u00ebtu dhe digitali \u00ebsht\u00eb gjith\u00e7ka p\u00ebr ne, por disa \u00e7\u00ebshtje me disa banka mund t\u00eb zgjidhen vet\u00ebm n\u00eb deg\u00eb. Plus, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e popullsis\u00eb i beson shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr bank\u00ebs fizike se sa aplikacionit n\u00eb telefonin e smart, dhe kjo gjithashtu duhet t\u00eb merret parasysh.<\/p>\n<p>Si pasoj\u00eb, arsyet p\u00ebr t'u larguar nga produktet e bank\u00ebs (ose nga banka vet\u00eb) mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb shumta. Ka ndryshuar pun\u00ebn dhe tarifa e kart\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb kaluar nga \"paga\" n\u00eb \"P\u00ebr njer\u00ebzit e zakonsh\u00ebm\", q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak e favorshme. Ka kaluar n\u00eb nj\u00eb qytet tjet\u00ebr ku nuk ka deg\u00eb t\u00eb bank\u00ebs. Nuk i p\u00eblqeu bashk\u00ebpunimi me nj\u00eb operator t\u00eb paekspozuar n\u00eb deg\u00eb. Pra, arsyet p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbyllur nj\u00eb llogari mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb, n\u00eb fakt, shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb shumta sesa p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur produktin.<\/p>\n<p>Po ashtu, klienti mund t\u00eb shpreh\u00eb jo thjesht qart\u00eb q\u00ebllimin e tij \u2014 t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb n\u00eb bank\u00eb dhe t\u00eb shkruaj\u00eb nj\u00eb deklarat\u00eb, por thjesht t\u00eb ndaloj\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruri produktet, pa e nd\u00ebrprer\u00eb kontrat\u00ebn. Pik\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar detyra t\u00eb tilla, u vendos q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoret m\u00ebsimi makina dhe AI.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00eb shum\u00eb se kaq, shkalla e largimit t\u00eb klient\u00ebve mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7do industri (telekom, ofruesit e internetit, kompanit\u00eb e sigurimeve, n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi, kudo q\u00eb ka nj\u00eb baz\u00eb klient\u00ebsh dhe transaksione periodike).<\/p>\n<h2>\u00c7far\u00eb kemi b\u00ebr\u00eb<\/h2>\n<p>\nS\u00eb pari, duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruanim nj\u00eb kufi t\u00eb qart\u00eb \u2014 q\u00eb nga \u00e7far\u00eb kohe fillojm\u00eb t\u00eb llogarisim klientin e larguar. Nga pik\u00ebpamja e bank\u00ebs, q\u00eb na ofroi t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat p\u00ebr pun\u00eb, gjendja e aktivitetit t\u00eb klientit ishte binar \u2014 ai \u00ebsht\u00eb ose aktiv, ose jo. Kishim nj\u00eb flamur ACTIVE_FLAG n\u00eb tabel\u00ebn \"Aktiviteti\", vlera e t\u00eb cilit mund t\u00eb ishte ose \"0\", ose \"1\" (p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht, \"Jo aktiv\" dhe \"Aktiv\"). Dhe \u00e7do gj\u00eb do ishte n\u00eb rregull, por njeriu \u00ebsht\u00eb si nj\u00eb person, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb aktivisht p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb, e pastaj p\u00ebr nj\u00eb muaj t\u00eb dal\u00eb nga grupi i aktiv\u00ebve \u2014 mund t\u00eb s\u00ebmuret, t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb vend tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr pushim, ose madje t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb testoj\u00eb kart\u00ebn e nj\u00eb banke tjet\u00ebr. Po ashtu, pas nj\u00eb periudhe t\u00eb gjat\u00eb mosaktiviteti, mund t\u00eb filloj\u00eb s\u00ebrish t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb sh\u00ebrbimet e bank\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>Prandaj, ne vendos\u00ebm t\u00eb quajm\u00eb periudh\u00ebn e mosaktivitetit nj\u00eb segment t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm kohor, gjat\u00eb s\u00eb cil\u00ebs flamuri p\u00ebr t\u00eb vendosej si \"0\". <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/c4263f11be0f122e54ed7985ba0d2c9d.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<br \/>\nKlient\u00ebt kalojn\u00eb nga mosaktiv n\u00eb aktiv pas periudhash mosaktiviteti t\u00eb ndryshme n\u00eb gjat\u00ebsi. Ne kemi mund\u00ebsin\u00eb t\u00eb llogarisim grad\u00ebn e shkall\u00ebs empirike \"besueshm\u00ebria e periudhave t\u00eb mosaktivitetit\" \u2014 dometh\u00ebn\u00eb, probabilitetin se nj\u00eb person do t\u00eb rifilloj\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb produktet e bank\u00ebs pas nj\u00eb periudhe t\u00eb koh\u00ebs s\u00eb mosaktivitetit. <\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb grafik \u00ebsht\u00eb e ilustruar rinovimi i aktivitetit (ACTIVE_FLAG=1) t\u00eb klient\u00ebve pas disa muajsh mosaktiviteti (ACTIVE_FLAG=0).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/3828c06a86ca6b43e77a6de61f768804.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<br \/>\nK\u00ebtu ne sakt\u00ebsojm\u00eb pak m\u00eb mir\u00eb at\u00eb grup t\u00eb dh\u00ebnash me t\u00eb cilat filluam t\u00eb punojm\u00eb. Pra, banka na ofroi informacion t\u00eb agreguar p\u00ebr 19 muaj n\u00eb tabelat e m\u00ebposhtme:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\"Aktiviteti\" \u2014 transaksionet mujore t\u00eb klient\u00ebve (p\u00ebr karta, n\u00eb internet-banking dhe banking celular), duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb akumulimet e pagave dhe informacionin mbi qarkullimet.<\/li>\n<li>\"Kartat\" \u2014 t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat mbi t\u00eb gjitha kartat q\u00eb ka klienti, me nj\u00eb struktur\u00eb tarifore t\u00eb detajuar.<\/li>\n<li>\u00abKontratat\u00bb \u2013 informacion p\u00ebr kontratat e klientit (si ato t\u00eb hapura, ashtu edhe t\u00eb mbyllura): kredite, depozita dhe t\u00eb tjera, me sh\u00ebnimin e parametrave t\u00eb \u00e7do nj\u00ebsi.<\/li>\n<li>\u00abKlient\u00ebt\u00bb \u2013 nj\u00eb grup t\u00eb dh\u00ebnash demografike (gjinia dhe mosha) dhe disponueshm\u00ebria e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave p\u00ebr kontakt.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nP\u00ebr pun\u00ebn ton\u00eb, na nevojiteshin t\u00eb gjitha tabelat, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 \u00abHartave\u00bb. <\/p>\n<p>V\u00ebshtir\u00ebsia k\u00ebtu ishte se banka nuk specifikonte se \u00e7far\u00eb aktiviteti kishte ndodhur p\u00ebrmes kartave. K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb mund\u00ebm t\u00eb kuptonim n\u00ebse ishin realizuar transaksione, por t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktonim llojin e tyre \u2013 jo. Prandaj, nuk ishte e qart\u00eb n\u00ebse klienti kishte t\u00ebrhequr para, kishte marr\u00eb pag\u00ebn, ose kishte shpenzuar para p\u00ebr blerje. Gjithashtu, nuk kishim t\u00eb dh\u00ebna p\u00ebr balancat n\u00eb llogari, \u00e7ka do t\u00eb ishte e dobishme. <\/p>\n<p>Kjo mostr\u00eb ishte e pandryshuar \u2013 n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb prerje, gjat\u00eb 19 muajve banka nuk nd\u00ebrmori asnj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur klient\u00ebt dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb minimizuar largimin e tyre.<\/p>\n<p>Pra, rreth periudhave t\u00eb pasivitetit.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebr formulimin e p\u00ebrcaktimit t\u00eb largimit, duhet t\u00eb zgjidhni nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb pasiviteti. P\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb parashikim t\u00eb largimit n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb caktuar <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/d2faf7d1a11c2770987ab6316b1db5e8.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/>, duhet t\u00eb keni historin\u00eb e klient\u00ebve p\u00ebr nj\u00eb minimum prej 3 muajsh n\u00eb intervalin <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/194e5601c2f0f49866d8e8e5a9ff5993.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/>. Historia jon\u00eb ishte e kufizuar n\u00eb 19 muaj, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb vendos\u00ebm t\u00eb merrnim nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb pasiviteti prej 6 muajsh, n\u00ebse ka ndonj\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn minimale p\u00ebr nj\u00eb parashikim cil\u00ebsor, mor\u00ebm 3 muaj. Numrat 3 dhe 6 muaj i mor\u00ebm empirike mbi baz\u00ebn e analiz\u00ebs s\u00eb sjelljes s\u00eb k\u00ebtyre klient\u00ebve.<\/p>\n<p>P\u00ebrcaktimi i largimit e formuluam si vijon: muaji i largimit t\u00eb klientit <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/3d581f5378975105aa6e73cacc175aeb.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/> \u00ebsht\u00eb muaji i par\u00eb me ACTIVE_FLAG=0, ku nga ky muaj ndodhin t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn gjasht\u00eb zero radhazi n\u00eb fush\u00ebn ACTIVE_FLAG, me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, muaji nga i cili klienti ka qen\u00eb i pasiv 6 muaj. <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/04ea6d4c59a9497733e4a181a4a5847c.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<i>Numri i klient\u00ebve q\u00eb e kan\u00eb l\u00ebn\u00eb<\/i><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/4d470cbe91bbc6ee7ddfd1933e90e62c.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<i>Numri i klient\u00ebve q\u00eb kan\u00eb mbetur<\/i><\/p>\n<h2>Si\u00e7 pranohet t\u00eb mendohet largimi<\/h2>\n<p>\nN\u00eb gara t\u00eb tilla, po ashtu dhe n\u00eb praktik\u00eb, largimin shpesh e parashikojn\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb. Klienti p\u00ebrdor produkte dhe sh\u00ebrbime n\u00eb intervale t\u00eb ndryshme kohor, t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrveprimin me t\u00eb paraqiten si nj\u00eb vektor karakteristikash me gjat\u00ebsi fikse n. Shpesh, n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb informacion p\u00ebrfshihen:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat q\u00eb karakterizojn\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruesin (t\u00eb dh\u00ebna demografike, segmenti i marketingut).<\/li>\n<li>Historia e p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb produkteve dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve bankare (kjo jan\u00eb veprimet e klient\u00ebve, t\u00eb cilat gjithmon\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb lidhura me nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb caktuar ose periudh\u00ebn e intervalit ton\u00eb t\u00eb nevojsh\u00ebm).<\/li>\n<li>T\u00eb dh\u00ebna t\u00eb jashtme, n\u00ebse jan\u00eb marr\u00eb \u2014 p\u00ebr shembull, d\u00ebshmit\u00eb nga rrjetet sociale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nDhe vet\u00ebm pas k\u00ebsaj p\u00ebrcaktojn\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktimin e ikjes, t\u00eb vetin p\u00ebr \u00e7do detyr\u00eb. Pastaj p\u00ebrdorin nj\u00eb algorit\u00ebm t\u00eb m\u00ebsimit t\u00eb makinerive, i cili parashikon mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e largimit t\u00eb klientit <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/79ce2d7f3193a9aab0b985c9a0cd0ee1.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/> me baz\u00eb n\u00eb vektorin e faktoreve <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/546791c513159e41d5950adca001d620.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/>. P\u00ebr t\u00eb trajnuar algoritmin p\u00ebrdorin nj\u00eb nga kornizat e njohura p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimin e grupeve t\u00eb pem\u00ebve vendimtare, <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/xgboost.readthedocs.io\/en\/latest\/\">XGBoost<\/a><\/noindex>, <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/Microsoft\/LightGBM\">LightGBM<\/a><\/noindex>, <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/catboost\/catboost\">CatBoost<\/a><\/noindex> ose modifikimet e tyre. <\/p>\n<p>Algoritmi vet\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i keq, por pik\u00ebrisht n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn e parashikimit t\u00eb ikjes ka disa disavantazhe t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Ai nuk ka at\u00eb q\u00eb quhet \"memorie\"<\/b>. N\u00eb hyrje t\u00eb modelit hyjn\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i caktuar karakteristikash, t\u00eb cilat i p\u00ebrkasin momentit aktual. P\u00ebr t\u00eb regjistruar informacionin mbi historin\u00eb e ndryshimit t\u00eb parametrave, nevojitet llogaritja e karakteristikave t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta, t\u00eb cilat karakterizojn\u00eb ndryshimet e parametrave n\u00eb koh\u00eb, p\u00ebr shembull, numri ose shuma e transaksioneve bankare p\u00ebr 1, 2, 3 muajt e fundit. Ky qasje mund t\u00eb pasqyroj\u00eb vet\u00ebm pjes\u00ebrisht karakterin e ndryshimeve temporale. <\/li>\n<li><b>Horozont i fiksuar i parashikimit.<\/b> Modeli \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb parashikoj\u00eb ikjen e klient\u00ebve vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar t\u00eb parashikuar, p\u00ebr shembull, parashikimi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb muaj p\u00ebrpara. N\u00ebse k\u00ebrkohet nj\u00eb parashikim p\u00ebr nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, p\u00ebr shembull, p\u00ebr tre muaj, at\u00ebher\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme t\u00eb rind\u00ebrtohet grupi i t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb trajnuara dhe t\u00eb ritr\u00ebnohet nj\u00eb model i ri. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>Qasja jon\u00eb<\/h2>\n<p>\nNe vendos\u00ebm q\u00eb nga fillimi nuk do t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim qasje standarde. N\u00eb kampionat ishim regjistruar edhe 497 persona t\u00eb tjer\u00eb, secili prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve kishte nj\u00eb p\u00ebrvoj\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme. Prandaj, t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqesh t\u00eb b\u00ebsh di\u00e7ka sipas nj\u00eb skeme standarde n\u00eb k\u00ebto kushte \u2014 nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ideja m\u00eb e mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Dhe ne filluam t\u00eb zgjidhim problemet q\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb p\u00ebrpara modelit t\u00eb klasifikimit binar, me an\u00eb t\u00eb parashikimit t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjes probabilistike t\u00eb koh\u00ebs s\u00eb ikjes s\u00eb klient\u00ebve. Ky qasje mund t\u00eb shikohet <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/ragulpr.github.io\/assets\/draft_master_thesis_martinsson_egil_wtte_rnn_2016.pdf\">k\u00ebtu<\/a><\/noindex>, ajo lejon parashikimin m\u00eb elastik t\u00eb ikjes dhe kontrollimin e hipotezave m\u00eb komplekse sesa n\u00eb qasjen klasike. Si nj\u00eb familje shp\u00ebrndarjesh q\u00eb modelojn\u00eb koh\u00ebn e ikjes, ne zgjodh\u00ebm shp\u00ebrndarjen <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/ru.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%92%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B0\">Weibull<\/a><\/noindex> p\u00ebr aplikimin e tij t\u00eb gjer\u00eb n\u00eb analiz\u00ebn e mbijetes\u00ebs. Sjellja e klientit mund t\u00eb konsiderohet si nj\u00eb lloj mbijetese. <\/p>\n<p>K\u00ebtu jan\u00eb disa shembuj t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjeve t\u00eb densiteteve t\u00eb mund\u00ebsive Weibull n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb parametrave. <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/57c935da52faf825ceedb4389d21c354.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/> dhe <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/85d1c92d5b9dfa83d13092edefb29a09.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/>:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/371e51ab8df2c10d5b139aadf290ebf8.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<br \/>\nKjo \u00ebsht\u00eb densiteti i shp\u00ebrndarjes s\u00eb mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb shkarkimit t\u00eb klientit t\u00eb tre klient\u00ebve t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm me kalimin e koh\u00ebs. Koha \u00ebsht\u00eb e paraqitur n\u00eb muaj. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, ky grafik tregon kur \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e mundur q\u00eb ndodh shkarkimi i klientit n\u00eb dy muajt e ardhsh\u00ebm. Si\u00e7 mund t\u00eb shihet, klienti me shp\u00ebrndarjen ka nj\u00eb potencial m\u00eb t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr t'u larguar m\u00eb her\u00ebt se klient\u00ebt me shp\u00ebrndarjet Weibull(2, 0.5) dhe Weibull(3, 1). <\/p>\n<p>Si rezultat, krijohet nj\u00eb model q\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do klient p\u00ebr \u00e7do<br \/>\nmuaj parashikon parametrat e shp\u00ebrndarjes Weibull, q\u00eb zakonisht pasqyron ardhjen e mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb shkarkimit me kalimin e koh\u00ebs. N\u00ebse shkojm\u00eb m\u00eb thell\u00eb: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Karakteristikat e synuara n\u00eb grupin e trajnimit jan\u00eb koha e mbetur deri n\u00eb shkarkim p\u00ebr nj\u00eb muaj t\u00eb caktuar p\u00ebr nj\u00eb klient t\u00eb caktuar.<\/li>\n<li>N\u00ebse nuk kemi tregues p\u00ebr shkarkimin e klientit, supozojm\u00eb se koha e shkarkimit \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe sesa numri i muajve q\u00eb fillon nga aktuali dhe deri n\u00eb fund t\u00eb historis\u00eb q\u00eb kemi.<\/li>\n<li>Modeli i p\u00ebrdorur: nj\u00eb rrjet nervor rekursiv me nj\u00eb sloj LSTM.<\/li>\n<li>Si funksion humbjeje p\u00ebrdorim funksionin e logaritmit t\u00eb negativizuar t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebsis\u00eb p\u00ebr shp\u00ebrndarjen Weibull.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nK\u00ebtu jan\u00eb avantazhet e k\u00ebtij metode: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Shp\u00ebrndarja probabilistike, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr klasifikim binar, lejon parashikimin e ngjarjeve t\u00eb ndryshme, p\u00ebr shembull, n\u00ebse nj\u00eb klient do t\u00eb ndaloj\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruari sh\u00ebrbimet e bank\u00ebs brenda 3 muajve. Gjithashtu, n\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme, nga kjo shp\u00ebrndarje mund t\u00eb mesatohen metrika t\u00eb ndryshme.<\/li>\n<li>Rrjeti nervor rekursiv LSTM ka memorie dhe p\u00ebrdor efektivisht t\u00eb gjith\u00eb historin\u00eb e disponueshme. Me zgjerimin ose sakt\u00ebsimin e historis\u00eb, sakt\u00ebsia rritet.<\/li>\n<li>Qasja mund t\u00eb shkall\u00ebzohet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb me ndarjen e intervaleve t\u00eb koh\u00ebs n\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla (p\u00ebr shembull, me ndarjen e muajve n\u00eb jav\u00eb).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nPor \u00ebsht\u00eb e pamjaftueshme t\u00eb krijosh nj\u00eb model t\u00eb mir\u00eb, duhet gjithashtu ta vler\u00ebsosh cil\u00ebsin\u00eb e tij.<\/p>\n<h2>Si e vler\u00ebsuam cil\u00ebsin\u00eb<\/h2>\n<p>\nSi metrik\u00eb ne zgjodh\u00ebm Kurv\u00ebn e Liftit. Kjo p\u00ebrdoret n\u00eb biznes p\u00ebr raste t\u00eb till\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb interpretimit t\u00eb qart\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruar mir\u00eb <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"http:\/\/www2.cs.uregina.ca\/~dbd\/cs831\/notes\/lift_chart\/lift_chart.html\">k\u00ebtu<\/a><\/noindex> dhe <noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.information-management.com\/news\/why-lift\">k\u00ebtu<\/a><\/noindex>. N\u00ebse e p\u00ebrshkruajm\u00eb kuptimin e k\u00ebsaj metrike me nj\u00eb fjali, do t\u00eb ishte \u00abSa m\u00eb mir\u00eb e b\u00ebn algoritmi parashikimin n\u00eb fillim <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/72818f84f73c2838fe7d63b33a96fd7b.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/>% se rast\u00ebsisht\u00bb. <\/p>\n<h2>Trajnojm\u00eb modelet<\/h2>\n<p>\nRregullat e gar\u00ebs nuk p\u00ebrcaktuan nj\u00eb metrik\u00eb t\u00eb sakt\u00eb cil\u00ebsie, me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn mund t\u00eb krahasohen modele dhe qasje t\u00eb ndryshme. M\u00eb tep\u00ebr, p\u00ebrcaktimi i konceptit t\u00eb largimit mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i ndrysh\u00ebm dhe mund t\u00eb varet nga p\u00ebrcaktimi i detyr\u00ebs, e cila, nga ana e saj, p\u00ebrcaktohet nga objektivat e biznesit. Prandaj, p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar se cila metod\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e mira, ne trajnuam dy modele:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Qasja e p\u00ebrdorur shpesh e klasifikimit binar me p\u00ebrdorimin e algoritmit t\u00eb m\u00ebsimit t\u00eb makinerive, grupimi i pem\u00ebve vendimtare (<noindex><a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/Microsoft\/LightGBM\">LightGBM<\/a><\/noindex>);<\/li>\n<li> Modeli Weibull-LSTM<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\nGrupi testues p\u00ebrb\u00ebhej nga 500 klient\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrzgjedhur paraprakisht, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt nuk ishin n\u00eb grupin e trajnimit. P\u00ebr modelin u realizua nj\u00eb optimizim i hiperparameter\u00ebve duke p\u00ebrdorur validimin e kryq\u00ebzuar t\u00eb ndar\u00eb sipas klient\u00ebve. P\u00ebr trajnimin e \u00e7do modeli u p\u00ebrdor\u00ebn t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat grupe ve\u00e7orish. <\/p>\n<p>Duke marr\u00eb parasysh se modeli nuk ka kujtes\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb u mor\u00ebn ve\u00e7ori t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb lidhjen e ndryshimeve t\u00eb parametrave nj\u00eb muaj me mesataren e parametrave p\u00ebr tre muajt e fundit. Kjo karakterizonte shpejt\u00ebsin\u00eb e ndryshimit t\u00eb vlerave p\u00ebr periudh\u00ebn e fundit prej tre muajsh. Pa k\u00ebt\u00eb, modeli i bazuar n\u00eb Random Forest do t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebt n\u00eb krahasim me Weibull-LSTM.<\/p>\n<h2>Si e kalon LSTM me shp\u00ebrndarje Weibull qasjen q\u00eb bazohet n\u00eb grupimin e pem\u00ebve vendimtare <\/h2>\n<p>\nAty \u00ebsht\u00eb gjith\u00e7ka e qart\u00eb, duke p\u00ebrdorur vet\u00ebm disa figura.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0a87a27804f1b285f66a889ed798cf6b.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<i>Krahasimi i Lift Curve p\u00ebr algoritmin klasik dhe Weibull-LSTM<\/i><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/6c281677260098c7993a690c923692c8.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<i>Krahasimi i metrikes Lift Curve sipas muajve p\u00ebr algoritmin klasik dhe Weibull-LSTM<\/i><\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, LSTM e d\u00ebbon algoritmin klasik n\u00eb pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha rastet.<\/p>\n<h2>Parashikimi i largimit<\/h2>\n<p>\nModeli i bazuar n\u00eb rrjetin nervor rekurent me qeliza LSTM me shp\u00ebrndarje Weibull mund t\u00eb parashikoj\u00eb largimin para se t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, p\u00ebr shembull, t\u00eb parashikoj\u00eb largimin e klient\u00ebve brenda n muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm. Le t\u00eb shqyrtojm\u00eb rastin p\u00ebr n = 3. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, p\u00ebr secilin muaj, rrjeti nervor duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb sakt\u00ebsisht: n\u00ebse klienti do t\u00eb largohet, duke filluar nga muaji i ardhsh\u00ebm deri n\u00eb muajin e n-t\u00eb. N\u00eb fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, ai duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb sakt\u00ebsisht n\u00ebse klienti do t\u00eb mbetet pas kalimit t\u00eb n muajve. Kjo mund t\u00eb konsiderohet si nj\u00eb parashikim t\u00eb p\u00ebrparsh\u00ebm: parashikimi i momentit kur klienti sapo ka filluar t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb p\u00ebr largimin. <\/p>\n<p>Le t\u00eb krahasojm\u00eb Lift Curve p\u00ebr Weibull-LSTM nj\u00eb, dy dhe tre muaj para largimit:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/4b2ed9cb21844cf5dc8f54bcfe092a9d.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<br \/>\nKemi shkruar m\u00eb lart se jan\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme edhe ato parashikime q\u00eb jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb p\u00ebr klient\u00ebt q\u00eb dalin nga aktiviteti p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb. Prandaj, ne do t\u00eb shtojm\u00eb n\u00eb mostr\u00ebn ton\u00eb raste t\u00eb tilla kur nj\u00eb klient q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb larguar ka qen\u00eb i pasiv nj\u00eb ose dy muaj, dhe do t\u00eb verifikojm\u00eb q\u00eb Weibull-LSTM klasifikon sakt\u00eb k\u00ebto raste si humbje. Duke qen\u00eb se k\u00ebto raste ishin t\u00eb pranishme n\u00eb most\u00ebr, ne presim q\u00eb rrjeti t\u00eb p\u00ebrballoj\u00eb mir\u00eb me to:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/4fe6e918aff2f16758c671c8d547895d.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<h2>Rrjedhja e klient\u00ebve<\/h2>\n<p>\nKjo \u00ebsht\u00eb thelb\u00ebsore, pasi keni informacion mbi klient\u00ebt q\u00eb po p\u00ebrgatiten t\u00eb ndalojn\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e produktit. Kur flasim p\u00ebr nd\u00ebrtimin e nj\u00eb modeli q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ofroj\u00eb di\u00e7ka t\u00eb dobishme p\u00ebr klient\u00ebt p\u00ebr t'i mbajtur ata \u2014 nuk do t\u00eb arrijm\u00eb ta b\u00ebjm\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00ebse nuk keni histori t\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjeve t\u00eb ngjashme q\u00eb p\u00ebrfunduan me sukses.<\/p>\n<p>Ne nuk e kemi pasur nj\u00eb histori t\u00eb till\u00eb, prandaj vendos\u00ebm ta b\u00ebjm\u00eb k\u00ebshtu.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Po nd\u00ebrtojm\u00eb nj\u00eb model q\u00eb p\u00ebrcakton produkte t\u00ebrheq\u00ebse p\u00ebr \u00e7do klient.<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7do muaj kemi n\u00eb funksion klasifikuesin dhe p\u00ebrcaktojm\u00eb klient\u00ebt q\u00eb potencialisht mund t\u00eb largohen.<\/li>\n<li>Disa klient\u00ebve u ofrojm\u00eb nj\u00eb produkt, sipas modelit nga pika 1, dhe mbajm\u00eb mend veprimet tona.<\/li>\n<li>Pas disa muajsh, shohim se kush nga k\u00ebta klient\u00eb potencialisht n\u00eb ikje \u00ebsht\u00eb larguar dhe kush ka mbetur. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb formojm\u00eb nj\u00eb most\u00ebr p\u00ebr trajnim.<\/li>\n<li>E trajnojm\u00eb modelin me historin\u00eb e marr\u00eb nga pika 4.<\/li>\n<li>Opcionalisht, e p\u00ebrs\u00ebrisim procedur\u00ebn, duke z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar modelin nga pika 1 me modelin e marr\u00eb n\u00eb pik\u00ebn 5.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\nKontrolli i cil\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb k\u00ebtij mbajtur mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsohet nga testimi A\/B standard \u2014 e ndajm\u00eb klient\u00ebt potencialisht n\u00eb ikje n\u00eb dy grupe. Nj\u00ebrit grup i ofrojm\u00eb produkte bazuar n\u00eb modelin ton\u00eb t\u00eb mbajtjes, grupit tjet\u00ebr nuk u ofrojm\u00eb asgj\u00eb. Vendos\u00ebm t\u00eb trajnojm\u00eb modelin q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ofroj\u00eb p\u00ebrfitim q\u00eb n\u00eb pik\u00ebn 1 t\u00eb shembullit ton\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p>Donim t\u00eb b\u00ebnim segmentimin sa m\u00eb t\u00eb interpretuar. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb, zgjodh\u00ebm disa karakteristika q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ishin leht\u00ebsisht interpretuese: numri i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i transaksioneve, rroga, qarkullimi total p\u00ebr llogari, mosha, gjinia. Karakteristat nga tabela \"Kartat\" nuk u mor\u00ebn parasysh si t\u00eb pakorkueshme, nd\u00ebrsa karakteristat nga tabela 3 \"Kontrat\u00eb\" \u2014 p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb kompleksitetit t\u00eb p\u00ebrpunimit p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur rrjedhjen e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave midis grupit validues dhe grupit t\u00eb trajnuar.<\/p>\n<p>Klasifikimi u krye duke p\u00ebrdorur modelet e p\u00ebrzierjeve Gaussian. Krit\u00e9ri p\u00ebr informacionin Akaike ndihmoi n\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktimin e 2 optimumeve. Optimumi i par\u00eb i p\u00ebrket 1 klastri. Optimumi i dyt\u00eb, m\u00eb pak i shprehur, p\u00ebrkon me 80 klastera. Nga ky rezultat mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet ky p\u00ebrfundim: t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat jan\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira p\u00ebr t'u ndar\u00eb n\u00eb klastera pa informacion t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb paraprakisht. P\u00ebr nj\u00eb klasifikim m\u00eb cil\u00ebsor, nevojiten t\u00eb dh\u00ebna q\u00eb e p\u00ebrshkruajn\u00eb detajisht \u00e7do klient.<\/p>\n<p>Prandaj, u shqyrtua nj\u00eb detyr\u00eb e m\u00ebsimit me mbik\u00ebqyrje, p\u00ebr t\u00eb propozuar nj\u00eb produkt t\u00eb ve\u00e7ant\u00eb p\u00ebr secilin klient. Produktet e shqyrtuara ishin: \"Depozit\u00eb e menj\u00ebhershme\", \"Kart\u00eb krediti\", \"Ovdraft\", \"Kredi konsumatori\", \"Kredi auto\", \"Hipotek\u00eb\". <\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebna kishte edhe nj\u00eb lloj tjet\u00ebr produkti: \"Llogaria e zakonshme\". Por ne nuk e shqyrtuam at\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb informacioneve t\u00eb pakta. P\u00ebr p\u00ebrdoruesit, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb klient\u00eb t\u00eb bank\u00ebs, dmth. q\u00eb nuk kan\u00eb ndaluar s\u00eb p\u00ebrdoruri produktet e saj, u nd\u00ebrtua nj\u00eb model q\u00eb parashikon se cili produkt mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i interesuar p\u00ebr ta. Modeli i zgjedhur ishte regresioni logjistik, dhe si metrik\u00eb p\u00ebr vler\u00ebsimin e cil\u00ebsis\u00eb u p\u00ebrdor vlera Lift p\u00ebr percenil\u00ebt e par\u00eb 10. <\/p>\n<p>Cil\u00ebsia e modelit mund t\u00eb vler\u00ebsohet n\u00eb figur\u00eb.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/77cab18988ab9c3b768b86e31479817f.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<i>Rezultatet e modelit t\u00eb rekomandimeve t\u00eb produkteve p\u00ebr klient\u00ebt <\/i> <\/p>\n<h2>P\u00ebrfundimi<\/h2>\n<p>\nKy qasje na solli vendin e par\u00eb n\u00eb kategorin\u00eb \"AI n\u00eb banka\" n\u00eb Kampionatin e AI RAIF-Challenge 2017.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Si\u00e7 e parashikuam, ne e trajtuam fluksin si nj\u00eb fatkeq\u00ebsi natyrore.\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/0c321869dfd02323766c025ed4021bcf.png\" style=\"display:block;margin: 0 auto;\" \/><br \/>\n<br \/>\nDuket se e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja ishte t\u00eb afrohemi me problemin nga nj\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrim jo m\u00eb t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm, duke p\u00ebrdorur nj\u00eb metod\u00eb q\u00eb zakonisht p\u00ebrdoret p\u00ebr situata t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n<p>Megjithat\u00eb, nj\u00eb ikje masive e p\u00ebrdoruesve mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb katastrof\u00eb p\u00ebr sh\u00ebrbimet.<\/p>\n<p>Kjo metod\u00eb mund t\u00eb merret parasysh edhe p\u00ebr \u00e7do fush\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, ku \u00ebsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb merren parasysh ikjet, jo vet\u00ebm nga bankat. P\u00ebr shembull, ne e p\u00ebrdor\u00ebm at\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb llogaritur ikjen ton\u00eb - n\u00eb filialet e Siberis\u00eb dhe Sh\u00ebn Petersburgut t\u00eb Rostelecom.<\/p>\n<p><i>\"Laboratoria e analiz\u00ebs inteligjente t\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave\" nga kompania \"Portali k\u00ebrkues \"Sputnik\"<\/i><br \/>\n<br \/>Burimi: <a content=\"nofollow\" rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/habr.com\/ru\/company\/rostelecom\/blog\/444694\/\">habr.com<\/a><\/p>","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0418\u043d\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e, \u0447\u0442\u043e\u0431\u044b \u0440\u0435\u0448\u0438\u0442\u044c \u043a\u0430\u043a\u0443\u044e-\u0442\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u0443, \u043d\u0430\u0434\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e \u0432\u0437\u0433\u043b\u044f\u043d\u0443\u0442\u044c \u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0434 \u0434\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0438\u043c \u0443\u0433\u043b\u043e\u043c. \u0414\u0430\u0436\u0435 \u0435\u0441\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043b\u0435\u0442 10 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0431\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c\u044b \u0440\u0435\u0448\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0438\u043c \u0438 \u0442\u0435\u043c \u0436\u0435 \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431\u043e\u043c \u0441 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u043d\u044b\u043c \u044d\u0444\u0444\u0435\u043a\u0442\u043e\u043c, \u043d\u0435 \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u044d\u0442\u043e\u0442 \u0441\u043f\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0431 \u0435\u0434\u0438\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439. \u0415\u0441\u0442\u044c \u0442\u0430\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0442\u0435\u043c\u0430, \u043a\u0430\u043a \u043e\u0442\u0442\u043e\u043a \u043a\u043b\u0438\u0435\u043d\u0442\u043e\u0432. \u0428\u0442\u0443\u043a\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u0438\u0437\u0431\u0435\u0436\u043d\u0430\u044f, \u043f\u043e\u0442\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043a\u043b\u0438\u0435\u043d\u0442\u044b \u043b\u044e\u0431\u043e\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043c\u043f\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u043c\u043e\u0433\u0443\u0442 \u043f\u043e \u043c\u043d\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0443 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0447\u0438\u043d \u0432\u0437\u044f\u0442\u044c [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u0418\u043d\u043e\u0433\u0434\u0430 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0442\u043e\u0433\u043e, 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