Isabhokhwe kunye nomdlalo
Kweli nqaku ndingathanda ukuxoxa ngengxaki ye-bullwhip effect, ethe yafundwa ngokubanzi kwi-logistics, kwaye iphinde ibonise ingqalelo yootitshala kunye neengcali kwinkalo yolawulo lonikezelo uhlengahlengiso olutsha lomdlalo webhiya owaziwayo. ukufundisa amalungiselelo. Umdlalo webhiya kwisayensi yolawulo lwekhonkco lokubonelela ngenene sisihloko esinzima kwimfundo yolungiselelo kunye nokusebenza. Ichaza kakuhle inkqubo engalawulekiyo yokuguquguquka komyalelo kunye nokuvuvukala kwe-inventory kwizigaba ezahlukeneyo zokubonelela ngeentambo - into ebizwa ngokuba yi-bullwhip effect. Ndakhe ndadibana nobunzima bokulinganisa i-bullwhip effect, ndaye ndagqiba ekubeni ndiphuhlise eyam inguqulelo eyenziwe lula yomdlalo webhiya (emva koku kubhekiselwa kuwo njengomdlalo omtsha). Ukwazi ukuba zingaphi iingcaphephe zezothutho ezikhoyo kule ndawo, kwaye kwakhona sithathela ingqalelo ukuba amagqabantshintshi kumanqaku angoHabr ahlala enomdla ngakumbi kunamanqaku ngokwawo, ndingathanda ngokwenene ukuva izimvo zabafundi malunga nokufaneleka kwesiphumo se-bullwhip kunye nomdlalo webhiya.
Yinyani okanye yintsomi?
Ndiza kuqala ngokuchaza umphumo we-bullwhip. Kukho iitoni zophononongo lwezenzululwazi kulungiselelo lolungiselelo oluvavanye isiphumo se-bullwhip njengesiphumo esibalulekileyo sonxibelelwano lwamahlakani onikezelo oluneziphumo ezibi kulawulo. Impembelelo ye-bullwhip kukwanda kokwahluka komyalelo kwizigaba zokuqala zekhonkco lokubonelela (phezulu), yenye yezona zinto ziphambili zethiyori [1] [2] kunye neziphumo zovavanyo lomdlalo webhiya [3]. Ngokwempembelelo ye-bullwhip, ukuguquguquka kwemfuno kubathengi kunye nemiyalelo evela kubathengisi kwinqanaba lokugqibela lokubonelela (ezantsi) lihlala liphantsi kunabo bavela kubathengisi kunye nabavelisi. Isiphumo, ngokuqinisekileyo, siyingozi kwaye sikhokelela ekutshintsheni rhoqo kwii-odolo kunye nemveliso. Ngokwezibalo, umphumo we-bullwhip unokuchazwa njengomlinganiselo wokungafani okanye i-coefficients yokwahluka phakathi kwezigaba (ii-echelons) zekhonkco lokubonelela:
BullwhipEffect=VARupstream/VARdownstream
Okanye (kuxhomekeke kwindlela yomphandi):
BullwhipEffect=CVupstream/CVdownstream
Isiphumo se-bullwhip sibandakanyiwe phantse kuzo zonke iincwadi zezifundo zangaphandle ezidumileyo kulawulo lokubonelela. Kukho nje isixa esikhulu sophando esinikelwe kwesi sihloko. Amakhonkco ekupheleni kwenqaku abonisa eyona misebenzi idumileyo kwesi siphumo. Ngokwethiyori, umphumo ubangelwa ubukhulu becala kukungabikho kolwazi malunga nemfuno, ukuthenga ngobuninzi, ukwesaba ukunqongophala kwexesha elizayo kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso [1]. Ukuthandabuza kwamaqabane oshishino ukwabelana ngolwazi oluchanekileyo malunga nemfuno yomthengi, kunye namaxesha amade okuhanjiswa, kwandisa umphumo we-bullwhip [2]. Kukho nezizathu zengqondo zesiphumo, eziqinisekisiweyo kwiimeko zelebhu [3]. Ngezizathu ezicacileyo, kukho imizekelo embalwa kakhulu yesiphumo se-bullwhip-bambalwa abantu abangathanda ukwabelana ngedatha malunga nee-odolo zabo kunye ne-inventories, kwaye nakulo lonke ikhonkco lokubonelela. Kukho, nangona kunjalo, igcuntswana elicacileyo labaphandi abakholelwa ukuba i-bullwhip effect iyabaxwa.
Ngokwethiyori, isiphumo sinokulungiswa ngokutshintsha iimpahla kunye nokutshintsha abathengi phakathi kwababoneleli xa kukho ukunqongophala [4]. Obunye ubungqina obunobungqina buxhasa imbono yokuba isiphumo se-bullwhip sinokulinganiselwa kumashishini amaninzi [5]. Abavelisi kunye nabathengisi bahlala besebenzisa iindlela zokugudisa imveliso kunye namanye amaqhinga okuqinisekisa ukuba ukuhluka komyalelo wabathengi akugqithisi kakhulu. Ndiyazibuza: yintoni imeko kunye nefuthe le-bullwhip eRashiya nakwisithuba se-post-Soviet ngokubanzi? Ngaba abafundi (ingakumbi abo babandakanyeka kuhlalutyo lwe-inventri kunye noqikelelo lwemfuno) baye bayiqaphela impembelelo enamandla ngolo hlobo kubomi benene? Mhlawumbi, eneneni, umbuzo wesiphumo se-bullwhip usekude kwaye ixesha elininzi labaphandi kunye nabafundi bezothutho bachithe kuyo ilize...
Mna ngokwam ndafunda i-bullwhip effect njengomfundi ophumeleleyo kwaye ngelixa ndilungiselela iphepha kumdlalo webhiya kwinkomfa. Kamva ndalungiselela inguqulelo ye-elektroniki yomdlalo webhiya ukubonisa umphumo we-bullwhip kwigumbi lokufundela. Ndiza kuyichaza ngokubanzi ngezantsi.
Ayizonto zokudlala zakho ezi...
Imodeli yespreadsheet isetyenziswa ngokubanzi ukuhlalutya iingxaki zoshishino lwehlabathi. Ispreadsheets zikwasebenza ngempumelelo ekuqeqesheni abaphathi bexesha elizayo. Impembelelo ye-bullwhip, njengentsimi ebalaseleyo kulawulo lwekhonkco lokubonelela, inesithethe eside sokusebenzisa ukulinganisa kwimfundo, apho umdlalo webhiya ngumzekelo omhle. I-MIT yaqala yazisa umdlalo wokuqala webhiya ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-1960, kwaye kungekudala yaba sisixhobo esidumileyo sokuchaza amandla okubonelela. Umdlalo ngumzekelo weklasi we-System Dynamics model, esetyenziselwa iinjongo zemfundo kuphela, kodwa kunye nokwenza izigqibo kwiimeko zoshishino zangempela, kunye nophando. Ukubonakala, ukuveliswa kwakhona, ukhuseleko, ukuphumelela kweendleko kunye nokufikeleleka kwemidlalo yekhompyutheni enzulu inika enye indlela yokuqeqeshwa emsebenzini, ukubonelela abaphathi ngesixhobo esiluncedo ekuququzeleleni ukwenza izigqibo xa kuqhutywa iimvavanyo kwindawo yokufunda ekhuselekileyo.
Umdlalo udlale indima ebalulekileyo ekufaniseni ukuphuhlisa izicwangciso zoshishino kunye nokuququzelela ukuthathwa kwezigqibo. Umdlalo webhiya yakudala yayingumdlalo webhodi kwaye wawufuna ukulungiswa okubalulekileyo phambi kokuba udlale umdlalo eklasini. Ootitshala kwakufuneka baqale bajongane nemiba efana nemiyalelo entsonkothileyo, iisetingi, kunye nezithintelo kubathathi-nxaxheba bomdlalo. Iinguqulelo ezilandelayo zomdlalo webhiya zazama ukwenza kube lula ukuyisebenzisa ngoncedo lwetekhnoloji yolwazi. Nangona ukuphuculwa okuphawulekayo kwinguqu nganye elandelayo, ubunzima bokusekwa kunye nokuphunyezwa, ngokukodwa kwiindawo ezininzi zabasebenzisi, kwiimeko ezininzi ziye zathintela umdlalo ukuba usetyenziswe ngokubanzi kwimfundo yezoshishino. Uphononongo lweenguqulelo ezikhoyo zemidlalo yokulinganisa ibhiya kulawulo lwekhonkco lokubonelela lubonisa ukunqongophala kwezixhobo ezifikelelekayo nezisimahla zabafundisi-ntsapho entsimini. Kumdlalo omtsha obizwa ngokuba yiSupply Chain Competition Game, bendifuna ukujongana nale ngxaki kuqala. Ukusuka kumbono we-pedagogical, umdlalo omtsha unokuchazwa njengesixhobo esisekelwe kwingxaki (PBL) esidibanisa ukulinganisa kunye nokudlala indima. Kuyenzeka ukuba usebenzise inguqulelo ye-intanethi yomdlalo omtsha kuMashidi kaGoogle. Indlela yokufomatha imiqathango kwimodeli yokubonelela ngespredishithi ijongana nemingeni emibini emikhulu ekusebenziseni imidlalo enzima: ukufikeleleka kunye nokulula kokusetyenziswa. Lo mdlalo ubukhona ukuba ukhutshelwe iminyaka embalwa ngoku kwikhonkco elilandelayo kuluntu .
Inkcazo eneenkcukacha ngesiNgesi inokukhutshelwa .
Inkcazo emfutshane yomdlalo
Ngokufutshane malunga nezigaba zomdlalo.
Umsebenzisi omnye ophethe iseshoni yomdlalo (emva koku kubhekiselwa kuye njengomfundisi-ntsapho) kunye ubuncinane babasebenzisi abane abadlala umdlalo (okuthiwa ngoku kubhekiselwa kubo njengabadlali) kunye bamele abathathi-nxaxheba kumdlalo webhiya. Iimodeli ezintsha zomdlalo omnye okanye ezimbini zokubonelela, nganye ibandakanya izigaba ezine: Umthengisi ®, umthengisi (W), uMhambisi (D) kunye neFactory (F). Amakhonkco obonelelo ngobomi bokwenyani ngokuqinisekileyo antsonkothile ngakumbi, kodwa umdlalo wekhonkco lebhiya ulungele ukufunda.
Irayisi. 1. Ubume bekhonkco lonikezelo
Iseshoni nganye yokudlala ibandakanya ixesha elipheleleyo le-12.
Irayisi. 2. Ifomu yesigqibo somdlali ngamnye
Iiseli kwiifom zinefomathi ekhethekileyo eyenza amasimi egalelo abonakale okanye angabonakali kubadlali ngokuxhomekeke kwixesha langoku elisebenzayo kunye nolandelelwano lwesigqibo, ngoko abadlali banokugxila kwizinto ezibaluleke kakhulu ngelo xesha. Utitshala unokulawula ukuhamba komsebenzi womdlalo ngephaneli yolawulo, apho iiparamitha eziphambili kunye nezalathi zentsebenzo zomdlali ngamnye zilandelelwa. Iigrafu ezihlaziywa ngoko nangoko kwiphepha ngalinye zikunceda uqonde ngokukhawuleza izalathisi zokusebenza eziphambili kubadlali nangaliphi na ixesha. Abahlohli banokukhetha ukuba ngaba imfuno yomthengi i-deterministic (kubandakanya i-linear kunye ne-nonlinear) okanye i-stochastic (kubandakanya iyunifomu, eqhelekileyo, i-lognormal, i-triangular, i-gamma, kunye ne-exponential).
Omnye umsebenzi
Umdlalo kule fomu usekude nokugqibelela-ufuna ukuphuculwa ngakumbi komdlalo wabadlali abaninzi kwi-intanethi ngendlela yokuphelisa isidingo sokuhlaziya rhoqo kunye nokugcina amaphepha ahambelanayo emva kwesenzo somdlali ngamnye. Ndingathanda ukufunda kwaye ndiphendule kumazwana kule mibuzo ilandelayo:
a) ingaba i-bullwhip effect iyinyani xa isenziwa;
b) unokuba luncedo kangakanani umdlalo webhiya ekufundiseni ulungiselelo kunye nendlela onokuthi uphuculwe ngayo.
iimbekiselo
[1] Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V. kunye neWhang, S., 1997. Ukuphazamiseka kolwazi kwikhonkco lokubonelela: Impembelelo ye-bullwhip. Isayensi yolawulo, 43 (4), iphepha 546-558.
[2] Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K. kunye noSimchi-Levi, D., 2000. Ukulinganisa umphumo we-bullwhip kwikhonkco elula yokubonelela: Impembelelo yokubikezela, amaxesha okukhokela, kunye nolwazi. 46(3), iphepha 436-443.
[3] Sterman, J.D., 1989. Ukulinganisa ukuziphatha kokulawula: Iingcamango eziphosakeleyo ngempendulo kwisilingo esinamandla sokwenza izigqibo. Isayensi yolawulo, 35 (3), iphepha 321-339.
[4] Sucky, E., 2009. Isiphumo senkunzi yenkomo kumatyathanga obonelelo - yingxaki eqikelelweyo? Ijenali yeHlabathi yezoQoqosho zoMveliso, i-118 (1), iphe.311-322.
[5] Cachon, G.P., Randall, T. and Schmidt, G.M., 2007. Ukukhangela umphumo we-bullwhip. Ukuvelisa kunye noLawulo lweMisebenzi yeNkonzo, i-9 (4), iphepha 457-479.
umthombo: www.habr.com