Ngaba kuyimfuneko ukuthenga imoto ngama-ruble angama-750 amawaka, nangona uqhuba amaxesha angama-18 ngenyanga, okanye ngaba kubiza kakhulu ukusebenzisa iteksi? Ukuba usebenza kwisitulo esingasemva okanye umamele umculo - oku kulutshintsha njani uvavanyo? Yeyiphi eyona ndlela ilungileyo yokuthenga indlu - kweliphi ixesha elifanelekileyo lokugqiba ukonga kwidiphozithi kwaye wenze intlawulo ephantsi kwi-mortgage? Okanye nokuba ngumbuzo omncinci: ngaba kunenzuzo ngakumbi ukufaka imali kwi-6% kunye ne-capitalisation yenyanga okanye kwi-6,2% nge-capitalization yonyaka? Uninzi lwabantu alufuni nokuzama ukwenza izibalo ezinjalo kwaye alufuni nokuqokelela iinkcukacha ezicacileyo malunga nemali yabo. Esikhundleni sokubala, iimvakalelo kunye neemvakalelo zixhunyiwe. Okanye benza uqikelelo oluncinane, ngokomzekelo, babale iindleko zonyaka zokuba nemoto ngokweenkcukacha, ngoxa zonke ezi ndleko zisenokuba sisi-5% kuphela seendleko zizonke (yaye inkcitho kwezinye iinkalo zobomi ayibalwa). Ingqondo yomntu iphantsi kokuphazamiseka kwengqondo. Ngokomzekelo, kunzima ukuyeka, nangona kungabuyiswanga, ishishini apho ixesha elininzi kunye nemali ityalwe. Abantu bakholisa ukuba nethemba eligqithileyo kwaye bayijongele phantsi imingcipheko, kunye nokucetyiswa ngokulula kwaye banokuthenga i-trinket ebiza kakhulu okanye batyala imali kwiphiramidi yezemali.
Kakade ke, kwimeko yebhanki, ukuvavanya ngokweemvakalelo akusebenzi. Ke ngoko, ndifuna ukuthetha kuqala malunga nendlela umntu oqhelekileyo ayivavanya ngayo imali (kubandakanywa nam), kunye nendlela ibhanki eyenzayo. Ngezantsi kuya kubakho inkqubo yemfundo yezemali kunye nokuninzi malunga nohlalutyo lwedatha kwi-Sberbank yebhanki yonke.
Izigqibo ezifunyenweyo zinikezelwa kuphela njengomzekelo kwaye azikwazi ukuthathwa njengeziphakamiso kubatyalo-mali babucala, ekubeni abaqwalaseli izinto ezininzi ezihlala ngaphandle kweli nqaku.
Ngokomzekelo, nayiphi na isiganeko esithi "black swan" kwi-macroeconomics, kulawulo lwenkampani nayiphi na inkampani, njl., inokukhokelela ekutshintsheni okukhulu.
Masithi sele uyihlawule imali-mboleko yakho kwaye unemali oyongileyo. Eli nqaku linokuba luncedo kuwe ukuba:
- akukhathaliseki ukuba uqokelele impahla engakanani kwaye ungayigcina njani umkhondo wayo
- uzibuza ukuba ungayenza njani ipropathi yakho ikuzisele ingeniso eyongezelelweyo
- Ndifuna ukuqonda ukuba yeyiphi yeendlela zokutshala imali eyona nto ingcono kakhulu: i-real estate, idiphozithi okanye i-stocks
- unomdla wokwazi ukuba uhlalutyo lwedatha yeSberbank luya kucebisa ngalo mbandela
Ngokuqhelekileyo abantu benza izigqibo zemali ngaphandle kolwazi olupheleleyo malunga nokuguquguquka kwengeniso kunye neendleko zabo, ngaphandle kovavanyo lwexabiso lepropati yabo, ngaphandle kokuthatha ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, njl. kwizibalo zabo.
Ngamanye amaxesha abantu bayazenza iimpazamo, njengokuthatha imali-mboleko becinga ukuba banokuyibuyisela emva koko basilele. Ngelo xesha, impendulo yombuzo wokuba umntu uya kukwazi ukuboleka imali ngokuqhelekileyo eyaziwa kwangaphambili. Kufuneka nje ukwazi ukuba uzuza malini, yimalini oyichithayo, yintoni i-dynamics yotshintsho kwezi zalathisi.
Okanye, umzekelo, umntu ufumana uhlobo oluthile lomvuzo emsebenzini, lunyuswa ngamaxesha athile, lubonisa njengovavanyo lokufaneleka. Kodwa ngokwenene, xa kuthelekiswa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, umvuzo walo mntu unokuwa, kwaye akanakuqaphela oku ukuba akagcini iirekhodi zengeniso.
Abanye abantu abakwazi ukuvavanya ukuba loluphi ukhetho olunenzuzo ngakumbi kwimeko yabo yangoku: ukurenta indawo yokuhlala okanye ukuthatha imali-mboleko yemali mboleko ngexabiso elinjalo.
Kwaye endaweni yokubala ukuba iindleko ziya kuba yintoni na kule meko kunye naloo meko, ngandlela-thile ukwenza imali ngezalathisi ezingezizo ezemali kwizibalo ("Ndiqikelela inzuzo yokubhaliswa kweMoscow kwi-M ruble ngenyanga, ndiqikelela ukuba kulula ukuhlala kwindlu eqashwe kufutshane. sebenza kwi-ruble ye-N ngenyanga "), abantu babalekela kwi-Intanethi ukuze baxoxe nabangeneleli abangaba neemeko ezahlukeneyo zemali kunye nezinye izinto eziphambili ekuhloleni izikhombisi ezingezizo ezemali.
Ndijongene nocwangciso lwezemali olunoxanduva. Okokuqala, kucetywa ukuba kuqokelelwe le datha ilandelayo kwimeko yakho yezemali:
- ucwangciso-mali kunye noqingqo-maxabiso lwayo yonke ipropati ekhoyo
- ukubalwa kwengeniso kunye neendleko, kunye nomahluko phakathi kwengeniso kunye neendleko, okt. ipropathi yokuqokelela dynamics
Ubalo-mali kunye nokuxatyiswa kwayo yonke ipropati ekhoyo
Ukuqala, nanku umfanekiso onokuthi utolike kakubi imeko yemali yabantu. Umfanekiso ubonisa kuphela amacandelo emali epropati abanayo abantu ababonisiweyo. Enyanisweni, emva koko, abantu abanikela izipho mhlawumbi banepropati ngaphandle kweemali-mboleko, ngenxa yoko ibhalansi yabo yemali imbi, kodwa ixabiso elipheleleyo lempahla yabo liselikhulu kunelomngqibi.
Vavanya into onayo:
- izindlu ezithengiswayo
- umhlaba
- izithuthi
- iidipozithi zebhanki
- izibophelelo zetyala (ngokuthabatha)
- utyalo-mali (izitokhwe, iibhondi, ...)
- iindleko zeshishini lakho
- enye ipropati
Phakathi kwepropati, umntu unokuqaphela isabelo se-liquid, esinokurhoxiswa ngokukhawuleza kwaye siguqulelwe kwezinye iifom. Ngokomzekelo, isabelo esikwindlu onayo kunye nezalamane ezihlala kuyo sinokuchazwa njengento engekho mthethweni. Utyalo-mali lwexesha elide kwiidiphozithi okanye izabelo ezingenako ukurhoxiswa ngaphandle kwelahleko nazo zinokujongwa njengezingekho mthethweni. Kwelinye icala, umhlaba ongowakho kodwa ungahlali kuwo, izithuthi, iidiphozithi zexeshana elifutshane nezinokurhoxiswa zingahlelwa njengepropathi engamanzi. Umzekelo, ukuba ufuna imali yonyango olungxamisekileyo, ke izibonelelo zezinye izixhobo zimalunga ne-zero, ngoko ke isabelo semali yokuhlawula amatyala sibaluleke ngakumbi.
Ngapha koko, phakathi kwepropathi kunokwahlulwa ngokungenangeniso kwaye kunenzuzo. Ngokomzekelo, izindlu ezithengiswayo ezingaqeshwanga, kunye nezithuthi, zinokugqalwa njengezingenangeniso. Kwaye izindlu eziqeshiswayo, iidiphozithi kunye nezabelo ezityalwe kwizinga elingaphezulu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ziyipropathi enenzuzo.
Uya kufumana, umzekelo, umfanekiso onjalo (idatha yenziwe ngokungenamkhethe):
Kubantu abaninzi, lo mfanekiso ubonakala ugobile kakhulu. Ngokomzekelo, ugogo ohluphekileyo unokuhlala kwindlu ebiza kakhulu eMoscow engazisi inzuzo, ngelixa uhlala ehlala emlonyeni ukusuka kwipenshini ukuya kumhlalaphantsi, engacingi ngokuhlengahlengisa impahla yakhe. Bekuya kuba bubulumko ukuba atshintshiselane ngezindlu nomzukulwana wakhe ngentlawulo. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, umtyali-mali usenokuzibhokoxa ekutyaleni imali kangangokuba angabi nazo ezinye iintlobo zempahla ngexesha lemvula, nto leyo enokuba yingozi. Unokuzoba umfanekiso onjalo wepropati yakho kwaye uzibuze ukuba akukho bulumko ukutshintshela ipropati ngendlela enenzuzo ngakumbi.
Ubalo-mali lwengeniso, iindleko kunye notshintsho lokuqokelelwa kwepropathi
Kucetyiswa ukuba urekhode rhoqo umvuzo wakho kunye neendleko nge-elektroniki. Ngexesha lebhanki ye-intanethi, ayithathi mzamo ungako. Ngelo xesha, ingeniso kunye neendleko zingahlulwa zibe ngamacandelo. Ngapha koko, ukuzihlanganisa ngeminyaka, umntu unokufikelela kwizigqibo malunga nokuguquguquka kwazo. Kubalulekile ukuthathela ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuze ube nombono wokuba iimali zeminyaka edlulileyo zikhangeleka njani kumaxabiso anamhlanje. Wonke umntu unebhaskithi yakhe yabathengi. Ipetroli nokutya kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngamaxabiso ahlukeneyo. Kodwa ukubala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso akho kunzima kakhulu. Ngoko ke, ngempazamo ethile, kunokwenzeka ukusebenzisa idatha kwizinga elisemthethweni lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso yenyanga ifumaneka kwimithombo emininzi evulekileyo, kubandakanywa nezo zilayishwe kwi-data data ye-Sberbank.
Umzekelo wokujonga iintshukumo zeendleko zengeniso (idatha yenziwe ngokungacwangciswanga, ukuguquguquka kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyinyani):
Ukuba nomfanekiso onjalo opheleleyo, unokwenza izigqibo malunga nokukhula kokwenyani / ukuhla kwengeniso kunye nokukhula kokwenyani / ukuncipha kokonga, uhlalutye amandla enkcitho ngokwecandelo kwaye wenze izigqibo ezinolwazi ngemali.
Yeyiphi indlela yokutyala imali esimahla ebetha ekwenyukeni kwamaxabiso kwaye izise owona mvuzo ungenzi nto?
Ichibi ledatha ye-Sberbank linedatha ebalulekileyo kulo mbandela:
- I-dynamics yeendleko ngemitha yesikwere eMoscow
- ugcino lwezindululo zentengiso kunye nerenti yendawo yokuhlala eMoscow naseMoscow suburbs
- iintshukumo zomndilili wenzala yonyaka kwiidiphozithi
- Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eeruble
- Dynamics of Moscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR)
- Moscow exchange istock quotes kunye nedatha kwizabelo ezihlawulweyo
Le datha iya kusivumela ukuba sithelekise imbuyekezo kunye nobungozi botyalo-mali kwipropati yokurenta, iidiphozithi zebhanki kunye ne-equity market. Singalibali ukubamba inflation.
Ndimele nditsho ngokukhawuleza ukuba kule post sibandakanyeka kuphela kuhlalutyo lwedatha kwaye asiyi kuphinda sisebenzise nayiphi na ingcamango yezoqoqosho. Makhe sibone ukuba ithini idatha yethu - yeyiphi indlela yokugcina kunye nokukhulisa ukonga eRashiya kuvelise iziphumo ezilungileyo kwiminyaka yamuva.
Siza kuchaza ngokufutshane indlela idatha esetyenziswe kweli nqaku kunye nezinye iinkcukacha kwi-Sberbank ziqokelelwa kwaye zihlalutywe. Kukho uluhlu lweereplicas zomthombo ezigcinwe kwifomathi ye-parquet kwi-hadoop. Zombini imithombo yangaphakathi (ii-AS ezahlukeneyo zebhanki) kunye nemithombo yangaphandle isetyenziswa. Iikopi zomthombo ziqokelelwa ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo. Kukho imveliso yengwamza esekelwe kwintlantsi, kwaye imveliso yesibini, i-Ab Initio AIR, ifumana amandla. Iikopi zomthombo zilayishwe kumaqela ahlukeneyo e-hadoop alawulwa yi-Cloudera, kwaye anokudityaniswa ukusuka kwelinye iqela ukuya kwelinye. Amaqela ahlulwe ikakhulu ngeebhloko zeshishini, kukwakho namaqela eLebhu yeDatha. Ngokusekwe kwireplicas yomthombo, iimart ezahlukeneyo zedatha zakhiwe ezifumaneka kubasebenzisi beshishini kunye nososayensi bedatha. Usetyenziso olwahlukeneyo lwentlantsi, imibuzo ye-hive, izicelo zokuhlalutywa kwedatha, kunye nokubonwa kweziphumo kwifomathi yemizobo ye-SVG isetyenziselwe ukubhala eli nqaku.
Uhlalutyo lwembali lwemarike yezindlu
Uhlalutyo lubonisa ukuba i-real estate kwixesha elide ikhula ngokulingana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, oko kukuthi. kumaxabiso okwenene akonyuki okanye anciphe. Nazi iigrafu ze-dynamics yamaxabiso ezindlu zokuhlala e-Moscow, ebonisa idatha yokuqala ekhoyo.
Itshathi yexabiso kwiiruble ngaphandle kokunyuka kwamaxabiso:
Itshathi yexabiso kwiiruble, kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso (ngamaxabiso anamhlanje):
Siyabona ukuba ngokwembali ixabiso litshintshile malunga ne-200 ruble / sq.m. kumaxabiso anamhlanje kunye nokuguquguquka kwakuphantsi kakhulu.
Yeyiphi ipesenti ngonyaka ngaphezulu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso eziswa lutyalo-mali kwizindlu zokuhlala? Isivuno sixhomekeke njani kwinani lamagumbi efulethini? Makhe sihlalutye i-database ye-Sberbank yeentengiso zokuthengisa kunye nokuqeshwa kwamagumbi eMoscow kunye namadlelo aseMoscow.
Kwisiseko sedatha yethu, bekukho izakhiwo ezininzi zokuhlala apho kukho iintengiso zentengiso yamagumbi kunye neentengiso zokurenta amagumbi ngaxeshanye, kwaye inani lamagumbi kumagumbi athengiswayo kunye nerenti iyafana. Sathelekisa iimeko ezinjalo, sazibeka ngokwamaqela ngokwezindlu kunye nenani lamagumbi akuloo ndlu. Ukuba kukho izibonelelo ezininzi kwiqela elinjalo, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo libalwe. Ukuba indawo yendawo ethengisiweyo kunye nerentiweyo yahlukile, ke ixabiso elithengisiweyo latshintshwa ngokomlinganiselo ukuze iindawo ezithelekisayo zihambelane. Ngenxa yoko, izindululo zabekwa kwishedyuli. Isangqa ngasinye yindlu enikezelwa ukuba ithengwe kwaye iqeshwe ngaxeshanye. Kwi-axis ethe tye sibona iindleko zokufumana indawo yokuhlala, kunye ne-axis ethe nkqo - iindleko zokurenta indlu efanayo. Inani lamagumbi efulethini licacile kumbala wesangqa, kwaye indawo enkulu yendlu, iradius enkulu yesangqa. Ukuthathela ingqalelo izibonelelo ezixabisa kakhulu, ishedyuli yavela ngolu hlobo:
Ukuba ususa unikezelo lwexabiso eliphezulu, ungawabona amaxabiso kwicandelo loqoqosho ngokweenkcukacha ezithe vetshe:
Uhlalutyo lonxulumano lubonisa ukuba ubudlelwane phakathi kweendleko zokurenta indlu kunye neendleko zokuyithenga zisondele kumgca.
Kuye kwavela lo mlinganiselo ulandelayo phakathi kweendleko zokurenta ngonyaka kunye neendleko zokufumana indawo yokuhlala (masingalibali ukuba iindleko zonyaka ziyi-12 ngenyanga):
Inani lamagumbi:
Umlinganiselo weendleko zerenti yonyaka yeflethi ukuya kwiindleko zokufumana indawo yokuhlala:
1-igumbi
5,11%
2-igumbi
4,80%
3-igumbi
4,94%
Iyonke
4,93%
Ifumene ireyithingi ye-avareji ye-4,93% ngonyaka isivuno esisuka ekurenteni indawo yokuhlala engaphezulu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Kukwanika umdla ukuba amagumbi anegumbi eli-1 anexabiso eliphantsi anengeniso ethe chatha ukurenta. Sithelekise ixabiso lonikezelo, elithe kuzo zombini iimeko (irenti kunye nokuthenga) lithe kratya kancinci, ngoko akukho luhlengahlengiso lufunekayo. Nangona kunjalo, olunye uhlengahlengiso luyafuneka: amagumbi aqeshisayo ngamanye amaxesha kufuneka alungiswe kancinci, kuthatha ixesha ukufumana umqeshi kwaye amagumbi angenanto, ngamanye amaxesha iintlawulo eziluncedo azifakwanga kwixabiso lokurenta ngokuyinxenye okanye ngokupheleleyo, kwaye apho. ikwakukuhla okuncinci kakhulu kwezindlu zokuhlala kule minyaka idlulileyo.
Ukuthathela ingqalelo uhlengahlengiso, ekurentiseni indawo yokuhlala, unokufumana umvuzo ukuya kuthi ga kwi-4,5% ngonyaka (ngaphaya kwento yokuba ipropati ngokwayo ayinciphisi). Ukuba isivuno esinjalo sinomtsalane, iSberbank ineentengiso ezininzi kwiDomClick.
Uhlalutyo lwembali lwemilinganiselo yediphozithi
Iidiphozithi zeRuble eRussia kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo ziye zagqithisa kakhulu ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Kodwa hayi nge-4,5%, njenge-real estate yokurenta, kodwa, ngokomyinge, nge-2%.
Kwitshathi engezantsi, sibona amandla okuthelekisa amaxabiso ediphozithi kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ndizakuqaphela okomzuzwana ukuba ingeniso evela kwiidiphozithi ibetha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso nokomelele ngakumbi kunetshati engasentla ngezi zizathu zilandelayo:
- Ungalungisa ireyithi kwiidiphozithi ezigcwaliswe kwakhona ngexesha elifanelekileyo kwiinyanga ezininzi kwangaphambili
- Imali eyinkunzi yenyanga, uphawu lweminikelo emininzi ebandakanyiweyo kolu lwazi luphakathi, yongeza inzuzo ngenxa yenzala embaxa
- ngasentla zathathelwa ingqalelo amaxabiso phezulu 10 iibhanki ngokolwazi evela Bank of Russia, ngaphandle phezulu 10 ungafumana amazinga aphezulu kancinci.
Ngokuphathelele iidiphozithi kwiidola kunye nee-euro, ndiya kuthetha ukuba babetha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiidola kunye nee-euro, ngokulandelanayo, buthathaka kunokuba i-ruble ibetha i-inflation ye-ruble.
Uhlalutyo lwembali lwemarike yemasheya
Ngoku makhe sijonge kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo kwaye zinobungozi kwizitokhwe zaseRussia. Imbuyekezo yotyalo-mali kwii-stocks ayilungiswanga kwaye inokuhluka kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba uyahlula-hlula ii-asethi kwaye utyale imali ixesha elide, unokulandela umyinge wenzala wonyaka obonisa impumelelo yokutyala imali kwipotifoliyo yesitokhwe.
Kubafundi abakude nesihloko, ndiya kuthetha amagama ambalwa malunga ne-stock indices. ERashiya, kukho i-index yaseMoscow Exchange, ebonisa i-dynamics yexabiso le-ruble yepotfoliyo equkethe i-50 enkulu yesitokhwe saseRashiya. Ukubunjwa kwesalathisi kunye nesabelo sezabelo zenkampani nganye kuxhomekeke kumthamo wemisebenzi yokurhweba, umthamo weshishini, inani lezabelo ezijikelezayo. Itshathi engezantsi ibonisa indlela i-Moscow Exchange index (o.k.t. i-portfolio enjalo ephakathi) ikhule kwiminyaka yamuva.
Abanini bezitokhwe ezininzi bahlawulwe ngamaxesha athile izabelo ezinokuphinda zityalwe kwizitokhwe ezifanayo ezenze ingeniso. Irhafu ihlawulwa kwizabelo ezifunyenweyo. I-Index ye-Exchange Index yaseMoscow ayithatheli ngqalelo isivuno se-dividend.
Ngoko ke, siya kuba nomdla ngakumbi kwi-Moscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR), ethatha ingqalelo kwizahlulo ezifunyenweyo kunye nerhafu ehlawulweyo kwezi zabelo. Masibonise kwitshathi engezantsi ukuba esi salathisi sitshintshe njani kwiminyaka yakutshanje. Ukongeza, sithathela ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaye sibone ukuba le index ikhule njani kumaxabiso anamhlanje:
Igrafu eluhlaza lixabiso lokwenene lepotfoliyo kumaxabiso anamhlanje, ukuba utyalomali kwi-Index yaseMoscow Exchange, uphinde utyale kwakhona izabelo kwaye uhlawule irhafu.
Makhe sibone ukuba ibithini isantya sokukhula kwe-MCFTR kwisithuba seminyaka eyi-1,2,3,β¦,11 edlulileyo. Ezo. Ibiya kuba yintoni imbuyekezo yethu ukuba sithenge izabelo ngokomlinganiselo wesi salathiso kwaye rhoqo sityala kwakhona izabelo ezifunyenweyo kwizabelo ezifanayo:
Iminyaka
Ukuqala
Isiphelo
I-MCFTR
kwangoko Nge
ukuqaphela
infl.
I-MCFTR
con. Nge
ukuqaphela
infl.
Coeff.
ukukhula
Qho ngonyaka
i-coefficient
ukukhula
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2020
3835,52
5095,54
1,328513
1,152612
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2020
3113,38
5095,54
1,636659
1,178472
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2020
3115,30
5095,54
1,635650
1,130896
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2020
2682,35
5095,54
1,899655
1,136933
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2020
2488,07
5095,54
2,047989
1,126907
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2020
2497,47
5095,54
2,040281
1,107239
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2020
2634,99
5095,54
1,933799
1,085929
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2020
3245,76
5095,54
1,569907
1,051390
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
2847,81
5095,54
1,789284
1,059907
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2020
2223,17
5095,54
2,292015
1,078318
Siyabona ukuba, ngokutyalomali naliphi na inani leminyaka edlulileyo, siya kufumana uloyiso kwi-inflation ye-5-18% ngonyaka, kuxhomekeke kwimpumelelo yendawo yokungena.
Masenze itafile enye ngaphezulu - ingeyiyo inzuzo kuyo yonke iminyaka eyiN yokugqibela, kodwa ingeniso kwisithuba sonyaka onguN wokugqibela:
ΠΠΎΠ΄
Ukuqala
Isiphelo
I-MCFTR
kwangoko Nge
ukuqaphela
infl.
I-MCFTR
con. Nge
ukuqaphela
infl.
Qho ngonyaka
i-coefficient
ukukhula
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2019
3835,52
4697,47
1,224728
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2018
3113,38
3835,52
1,231947
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2017
3115,30
3113,38
0,999384
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2016
2682,35
3115,30
1,161407
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2015
2488,07
2682,35
1,078085
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2014
2497,47
2488,07
0,996236
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2013
2634,99
2497,47
0,947810
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2012
3245,76
2634,99
0,811825
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2011
2847,81
3245,76
1,139739
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2010
2223,17
2847,81
1,280968
Siyabona ukuba akusiyo yonke iminyaka eyimpumelelo, kodwa iminyaka engaphumelelanga yalandelwa yiminyaka eyimpumelelo, "eyalungisa yonke into".
Ngoku, ukuze siqonde ngcono, makhe sikhuphe kule index kwaye sijonge kumzekelo wesitokhwe esithile, kuya kuba yintoni umphumo ukuba utyalomali kule stock kwiminyaka eyi-15 eyadlulayo, utyale kwakhona izabelo kwaye uhlawulwe irhafu. Makhe sibone isiphumo sithathela ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, i.e. ngamaxabiso akhoyo. Ngezantsi umzekelo wesabelo esiqhelekileyo seSberbank. Igrafu eluhlaza ibonisa i-dynamics yexabiso lepotfoliyo, ekuqaleni yayinesabelo esinye se-Sberbank kumaxabiso angoku, kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukutshalwa kwakhona kwezabelo. Kwiminyaka eyi-15, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwanciphisa i-ruble ngamaxesha angama-3.014135. Isabelo seSberbank kwiminyaka edlulileyo sikhuphuke kwixabiso ukusuka kwi-ruble ye-21.861. ukuya kuthi ga kwi-ruble ye-218.15, i.e. ixabiso linyuke ngamaxesha angama-9.978958 ngaphandle kokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Kule minyaka, umnini wesabelo esinye uhlawulwe ngamaxesha ahlukeneyo izabelo, i-net of taxes, kwisixa se-40.811613 ruble. Izixa-mali zezabelo ezihlawulweyo ziboniswa kwitshati njengezinti ezibomvu ezithe nkqo kwaye azibhekiseli kwitshathi ngokwayo, apho izabelo kunye notyalo-mali lwabo kwakhona zithathelwa ingqalelo. Ukuba ngalo lonke ixesha ezi zabelo zisetyenziselwa ukuthenga izabelo ze-Sberbank kwakhona, ngoko ekupheleni kwexesha umnini-sabelo sele ephethe enye, kodwa izabelo ze-1.309361. Ukuqwalasela ukubuyiswa kwakhona kwezabelo kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, iphothifoliyo yasekuqaleni ikhuphuke kwixabiso ngama-4.334927 ngamaxesha angaphezu kweminyaka eyi-15, i.Π΅. yenyuka ngexabiso ngama-1.102721 amaxesha ngonyaka. Lilonke, isabelo esiqhelekileyo se-Sberbank sazisa umnini umyinge we-10,27% ngonyaka ngaphezu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiminyaka eyi-15 yokugqibela:
Njengomnye umzekelo, makhe sithathe umfanekiso ofanayo kunye ne-dynamics yezabelo ezikhethiweyo zeSberbank. Isabelo esikhethwayo seSberbank sazisa umnini nangakumbi kumyinge, i-13,59% ngonyaka ngaphezu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiminyaka eli-15 yokugqibela:
Ezi ziphumo ziya kuba ngaphantsi kancinci ekusebenzeni, kuba xa uthenga izabelo kufuneka uhlawule ikhomishini encinci ye-brokerage. Kwangaxeshanye, isiphumo sinokuphuculwa ngakumbi ukuba usebenzisa i-Akhawunti yoTyalo-mali yoMnye, ekuvumela ukuba ufumane ukutsalwa kwerhafu kurhulumente ngesixa esithile esilinganiselweyo. Ukuba awuzange uve ngale nto, kuyacetyiswa ukuba ukhangele isishunqulelo esithi "IIS". Masingalibali ukukhankanya ukuba i-IIS inokuvulwa kwi-Sberbank.
Ke, siye safumana ngaphambili ukuba ngokwembali kunenzuzo ngakumbi ukutyalomali kwizitokhwe kunokuba kwi-real estate kunye neediphozithi. Ukuzonwabisa, nantsi i-parade ye-hit ye-stocks eziphezulu ze-20 eziye zathengisa kwiimarike ngaphezu kweminyaka eyi-10, efunyenwe ngenxa yohlalutyo lwedatha. Kwikholamu yokugqibela, sibona ukuba mangaphi amaxesha iphothifoliyo ye-stocks ikhule ngokomndilili minyaka yonke, ithathela ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokubuyiselwa kwezabelo. Siyabona ukuba izitokhwe ezininzi zibetha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngaphezu kwe-10%:
UkuPhakanyiswa
Ukuqala
Isiphelo
Coeff. ukunyuka kwamaxabiso
Ukuqala ixabiso
Con. ixabiso
Ukuphakama
amanani
izabelo
ngeendleko
buyisela-
izikhululo
yahlula-
dendov,
maxesha
yokugqibela
phakathi
ngonyaka
ukukhula, amaxesha
Lenzoloto
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1267,02
17290
2,307198
1,326066
NKNKH ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
5,99
79,18
2,319298
1,322544
MGTS-4ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
339,99
1980
3,188323
1,257858
Tatnft 3ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
72,77
538,8
2,037894
1,232030
MGTS-5ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
380,7
2275
2,487047
1,230166
Akron
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
809,88
5800
2,015074
1,226550
Lenzol. phezulu
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
845
5260
2,214068
1,220921
NKNKh JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
14,117
92,45
1,896548
1,208282
Lenerg-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
25,253
149,5
1,904568
1,196652
GMKNorNik
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
4970
19620
2,134809
1,162320
Surgnfgz-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
13,799
37,49
2,480427
1,136619
IRKUT-3
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
8,127
35,08
1,543182
1,135299
Tatnft 3ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
146,94
558,4
1,612350
1,125854
Novatek JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
218,5
1080,8
1,195976
1,121908
I-SevSt-AO
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
358
908,4
2,163834
1,113569
Krasesb ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
3,25
7,07
2,255269
1,101105
I-CHTPZ JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
55,7
209,5
1,304175
1,101088
Sberbank-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
56,85
203,33
1,368277
1,100829
I-PIK JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
108,26
489,5
1,079537
1,100545
ILUKOIL
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1720
5115
1,639864
1,100444
Ngoku, emva kokukhuphela idatha, siya kusombulula iingxaki ezininzi kwisihloko sokuba yintoni kanye kanye ekufanele ukutshala kuyo, ukuba sikholelwa ukuba iintsingiselo zexesha elide kwixabiso lezabelo ezithile ziya kuqhubeka. Kucacile ukuba akulunganga ngokupheleleyo ukuqikelela ixabiso elizayo ngokwetshathi yangaphambili, kodwa siya kukhangela abaphumeleleyo kutyalo-mali kwixesha elidlulileyo kwiindidi ezininzi.
Umsebenzi. Fumana isitokhwe esihlala sigqithisa i-real estate (CAGR 1.045 ngaphezu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso) inani eliphezulu lamaxesha kwixesha ngalinye le-10 lokugqibela lonyaka omnye isitokhwe esithengisiweyo.
Kule misebenzi kunye nale ilandelayo, sithetha le modeli ingasentla ngokutshalwa ngokutsha kwezabelo kunye nokubalwa kwexabiso lentengo.
Naba abaphumeleleyo kolu didi ngokohlalutyo lwethu lwedatha. Izitokhwe phezulu kwetafile zihlala ziqhuba kakuhle unyaka nonyaka ngaphandle kokudipha. Apha Unyaka woku-1 ngu-30.07.2019/30.07.2020/2-30.07.2018/30.07.2019/XNUMX, unyaka wesi-XNUMX ngu-XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX-XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX, njl.
UkuPhakanyiswa
inani
uloyiso
ngaphezulu
izindlu ezithengiswayo
cofa-
St
kwi
emva-
iintsuku
10 iminyaka
Unyaka ka-1
Unyaka ka-2
Unyaka ka-3
Unyaka ka-4
Unyaka ka-5
Unyaka ka-6
Unyaka ka-7
Unyaka ka-8
Unyaka ka-9
Unyaka ka-10
Tatnft 3ap
8
0,8573
1,4934
1,9461
1,6092
1,0470
1,1035
1,2909
1,0705
1,0039
1,2540
MGTS-4ap
8
1,1020
1,0608
1,8637
1,5106
1,7244
0,9339
1,1632
0,9216
1,0655
1,6380
I-CHTPZ JSC
7
1,5532
1,2003
1,2495
1,5011
1,5453
1,2926
0,9477
0,9399
0,3081
1,3666
I-SevSt-AO
7
0,9532
1,1056
1,3463
1,1089
1,1955
2,0003
1,2501
0,6734
0,6637
1,3948
NKNKh JSC
7
1,3285
1,5916
1,0821
0,8403
1,7407
1,3632
0,8729
0,8678
1,0716
1,7910
MGTS-5ao
7
1,1969
1,0688
1,8572
1,3789
2,0274
0,8394
1,1685
0,8364
1,0073
1,4460
Gazpromneft
7
0,8119
1,3200
1,6868
1,2051
1,1751
0,9197
1,1126
0,7484
1,1131
1,0641
Tatnft 3ao
7
0,7933
1,0807
1,9714
1,2109
1,0728
1,1725
1,0192
0,9815
1,0783
1,1785
Lenerg-p
7
1,3941
1,1865
1,7697
2,4403
2,2441
0,6250
1,2045
0,7784
0,4562
1,4051
NKNKH ap
7
1,3057
2,4022
1,2896
0,8209
1,2356
1,6278
0,7508
0,8449
1,5820
2,4428
Surgnfgz-p
7
1,1897
1,0456
1,2413
0,8395
0,9643
1,4957
1,2140
1,1280
1,4013
1,0031
Siyabona ukuba neenkokeli azizange ziphumelele umhlaba ngokwengeniso minyaka le. Ukutsiba okuqinileyo kwinqanaba lenzuzo kwiminyaka eyahlukeneyo kubonisa ukuba ukuba ufuna uzinzo, kungcono ukwahlula ii-asethi, kwaye ngokufanelekileyo, utyalomali kwisalathiso.
Ngoku siqulunqa kwaye sisombulule ingxaki enjalo yokuhlalutya idatha. Ngaba kufanelekile ukuqikelela kancinci, ixesha ngalinye uthenga isitokhwe kwiintsuku ezi-M phambi komhla wokuhlawulwa kwesahlulo kunye nokuthengisa izabelo emva kweentsuku eziN emva komhla wokuhlawulwa kwesahlulo? Ngaba kungcono ukuvuna izabelo kwaye "uphume kwisitokhwe" kunokuhlala "esitokisini" unyaka wonke? Makhe sicinge ukuba akukho lahleko kwikhomishini ekuphumeni okunjalo. Kwaye uhlalutyo lwedatha luya kusinceda sifumane imida ye-M kunye ne-N corridor, eye yaphumelela kakhulu ekuvuneni izabelo endaweni yokubamba izabelo ixesha elide.
Nantsi i-anecdote evela ku-2008.
UJohn Smith, ophume ngefestile yomgangatho wama-75 eWall Street, emva kokubetha umhlaba, watsiba iimitha ezili-10, nto leyo eyathi yaphumelela ukuwa kwakhe kusasa.
Ngoko kunjalo ngezabelo: sicinga ukuba kwintshukumo yemarike kwindawo ekufutshane nomhla wokuhlawulwa kwesahlulo, ukubonakalisa kakhulu imarike kubonakaliswa, oko kukuthi. ngenxa yezizathu zengqondo, imakethi inokuwa okanye inyuke ngaphezu kwexabiso lesabelo esiyifunayo.
Umsebenzi. Qikelela izinga lokufunyanwa kwezabelo emva kokuhlawulwa kwezabelo. Ngaba kungcono ukungena ngobusuku obungaphambi kwentlawulo yesahlulo kwaye uphume emva kwexesha kunokuba ube sisitokhwe unyaka wonke? Zingaphi iintsuku ngaphambi kokuba ndifake intlawulo yesahlulo kwaye zingaphi iintsuku emva kwentlawulo yesahlulo kufuneka ndiphume kwisitokhwe ukuze ndifumane inzuzo ephezulu?
Imodeli yethu ibale zonke iinguqu kububanzi bengingqi malunga nemihla yentlawulo yesahlulo kwimbali. Ezi zithintelo zilandelayo zamkelwa: M<=30, N>=20. Inyani kukuba umhla kunye nemali yentlawulo ayisoloko isaziwa kwangaphambili kuneentsuku ezingama-30 ngaphambi kokuhlawulwa kwezahlulo. Kwakhona, izabelo azifiki kwi-akhawunti ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ngokulibaziseka. Sikholelwa ukuba kuthatha ubuncinane iintsuku ezingama-20 ukuqinisekiswa ukufumana izabelo kwi-akhawunti kwaye siphinde siyityale. Ngezi zithintelo, imodeli ivelise impendulo elandelayo. Elona xesha lilungileyo lokuthenga izabelo ziintsuku ezingama-34 phambi komhla wokuhlawulwa kwesahlulo kwaye uzithengise kwiintsuku ezingama-25 emva komhla wokuhlawulwa kwesahlulo. Phantsi kwale meko, ukukhula komndilili we-3,11% kwesi sithuba kwafunyanwa, nto leyo enika i-20,9% ngonyaka. Ezo. kunye nemodeli yotyalo-mali eqwalaselweyo (ngotyalo-mali kwakhona lwezabelo kunye nokuthathela ingqalelo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso), ukuba uthenga isabelo kwiintsuku ezingama-34 ngaphambi komhla wentlawulo yesahlulo kwaye usithengise kwiintsuku ezingama-25 emva komhla wentlawulo yesahlulo, ke sine-20,9% ngonyaka ngaphezulu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso. izinga. Oku kuqinisekiswa yi-avareji kuzo zonke iimeko zeentlawulo zezahlulo ezivela kuluhlu lwethu lwedatha.
Ngokomzekelo, kwisabelo esikhethiweyo se-Sberbank, imeko enjalo yokuphuma iya kunika i-11,72% yokukhula ngaphezu kwezinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwindawo nganye yokuphuma kwindawo yomhla wokuhlawulwa kwentlawulo. Oku kufikelela kuma-98,6% ngonyaka ngaphezu komlinganiselo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Kodwa oku, ngokuqinisekileyo, ngumzekelo wethamsanqa elingaqhelekanga.
UkuPhakanyiswa
entry
Umhla wokwahlulwa
Phuma
Coeff. ukukhula
Sberbank-p
10.05.2019
13.06.2019
08.07.2019
1,112942978
Sberbank-p
23.05.2018
26.06.2018
21.07.2018
0,936437635
Sberbank-p
11.05.2017
14.06.2017
09.07.2017
1,017492563
Sberbank-p
11.05.2016
14.06.2016
09.07.2016
1,101864592
Sberbank-p
12.05.2015
15.06.2015
10.07.2015
0,995812419
Sberbank-p
14.05.2014
17.06.2014
12.07.2014
1,042997818
Sberbank-p
08.03.2013
11.04.2013
06.05.2013
0,997301095
Sberbank-p
09.03.2012
12.04.2012
07.05.2012
0,924053861
Sberbank-p
12.03.2011
15.04.2011
10.05.2011
1,010644958
Sberbank-p
13.03.2010
16.04.2010
11.05.2010
0,796937418
Sberbank-p
04.04.2009
08.05.2009
02.06.2009
2,893620094
Sberbank-p
04.04.2008
08.05.2008
02.06.2008
1,073578067
Sberbank-p
08.04.2007
12.05.2007
06.06.2007
0,877649005
Sberbank-p
25.03.2006
28.04.2006
23.05.2006
0,958642001
Sberbank-p
03.04.2005
07.05.2005
01.06.2005
1,059276282
Sberbank-p
28.03.2004
01.05.2004
26.05.2004
1,049810801
Sberbank-p
06.04.2003
10.05.2003
04.06.2003
1,161792898
Sberbank-p
02.04.2002
06.05.2002
31.05.2002
1,099316569
Ngoko ke, oku kuboniswa ngasentla kwemarike kuyenzeka, kwaye kuluhlu olubanzi ngokwaneleyo lwemihla yentlawulo yesahlulo, isivuno ngokwembali besiphezulu kancinane kunesabelo sonyaka wonke.
Masisete imodeli yethu umsebenzi omnye wohlalutyo lwedatha:
Umsebenzi. Fumana isitokhwe ngelona thuba liqhelekileyo lokungena-lokuphuma kwingeniso malunga nomhla wokuhlawulwa kwesahlulo. Siza kuphonononga ukuba zingaphi iimeko zokuhlawulwa kwesahlulo esenze ukuba sikwazi ukufumana ngaphezulu kwe-10% rhoqo ngonyaka ngaphezu komyinge wokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuba ufaka isitokhwe kwiintsuku ezingama-34 ngaphambili kwaye uphume kwiintsuku ezingama-25 emva komhla wentlawulo yesahlulo.
Siza kuqwalasela izitokhwe apho kwakukho ubuncinane iimeko ze-5 zeentlawulo zesahlulo. Isiphumo sokubethelwa kweparade siboniswe ngezantsi. Qaphela ukuba isiphumo sinokuthi sixabiseke kuphela kwimbono yengxaki yokuhlalutya idatha, kodwa kungekhona njengesikhokelo esisebenzayo sotyalo-mali.
UkuPhakanyiswa
Inani le
amatyala okuphumelela
ngaphezulu kwe-10% ngonyaka
ngaphezulu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso
Inani le
amatyala
iintlawulo
Izabelo
Yabelana
amatyala
uloyiso
I-avareji yomlinganiso ukukhula
Lenzoloto
5
5
1
1,320779017
IDGC SZ
6
7
0,8571
1,070324870
Rollman-p
6
7
0,8571
1,029644533
Rosseti phezulu
4
5
0,8
1,279877637
Kubanenr
4
5
0,8
1,248634960
LSR JSC
8
10
0,8
1,085474828
ALROSA JSC
8
10
0,8
1,042920287
FGC UES JSC
6
8
0,75
1,087420610
I-NCSP JSC
10
14
0,7143
1,166690777
KuzbTK JSC
5
7
0,7143
1,029743667
Ukusuka kuhlalutyo lwemarike yemasheya, sinokufikelela kwizigqibo ezilandelayo:
- Kuye kwaqinisekiswa ukuba imbuyekezo kwizabelo ezibhengezwe kwizinto zabarhwebi, iinkampani zotyalo-mali kunye namanye amaqela anomdla ziphezulu kunediphozithi kunye ne-investment real estate.
- Ukuguquguquka kwemarike yemasheya kuphezulu kakhulu, kodwa kunokwenzeka ukutyalomali ixesha elide kunye nokwahlukana okuphawulekayo kwepotfoliyo. Ngenxa yotsalo olongezelelweyo lwe-13% yerhafu xa utyala imali kwi-IIS, kuyacetyiswa ukuba uzivulele i-stock market kwaye oku kunokwenziwa, kubandakanywa ne-Sberbank.
- Ngokusekelwe kuhlalutyo lweziphumo zamaxesha angaphambili, iinkokeli zifunyenwe ngokubhekiselele kwinzuzo ephezulu ezinzileyo kunye nenzuzo yokungena kwindawo ekufutshane nomhla wokuhlawula isahlulo. Nangona kunjalo, iziphumo azikho ngokucacileyo kwaye akufanele ukhokelwe ngabo kuphela kutyalo-mali lwakho. Le yayiyimizekelo yemisebenzi yohlalutyo lwedatha.
Iyonke
Kuluncedo ukugcina ingxelo yepropati yakho, kunye nomvuzo kunye neendleko. Iyanceda kucwangciso lwezemali. Ukuba ulawula ukugcina imali, ngoko kukho amathuba okutyala imali kwizinga eliphezulu ngaphezu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Uhlalutyo lwedatha evela kwidatha yedatha ye-Sberbank lubonise ukuba iidiphozithi zonyaka zibuyisela i-2%, iiflethi ezirentwayo - 4,5%, kunye nezabelo zaseRashiya - malunga ne-10% ngaphezu kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye neengozi ezinkulu kakhulu.
Umbhali: UMikhail Grichik, ingcali yoluntu lweengcali zeSberbank SberProfi DWH/BigData.
Uluntu lwe-SberProfi DWH / BigData luxanduva lokuphuhlisa ubuchule kwiindawo ezifana ne-Hadoop ecosystem, iTeradata, i-Oracle DB, i-GreenPlum, kunye ne-BI izixhobo ze-Qlik, i-SAP BO, i-Tableau, njl.
umthombo: www.habr.com