Ndicinga ukuba ingxaki asikuko ukuba oomatshini baya kuthatha indawo yabantu kwindawo abasebenza kuyo, kuquka nakwezobukrelekrele, hayi ukuba iikhompyutha zityholwa ngokuba zithathele izikhali abantu abanemfundo ephakamileyo neeakhawunti zeTwitter. Ukuphunyezwa kwe-AI akwenzeki ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ngokuchaseneyo, kucotha kakhulu. Ngoba? Ngenxa yokuba lo ngumjikelo oqhelekileyo wophuhliso lwabantu, kwaye asiqondi nje ukuba ukutshatyalaliswa esikubonayo kuthetha ukuqaliswa kobuchwepheshe obutsha, obuthi, ngaphambi kokudala imisebenzi emitsha, kutshabalalisa endala.
Ubuchwephesha butshabalalisa amashishini aphelelwe lixesha kwaye enze amatsha, le yinkqubo yokudala, lo ngumjikelo wophuhliso. Ukuba uzama ukolula umvandedwa ngokufaka itekhnoloji endala kwinkqubo okanye ukwenza izibonelelo ezithile kwiitekhnoloji eziphelelwe lixesha, uya kuyicothisa inkqubo kwaye uyenze ibe buhlungu ngakumbi. Kuya kwenzeka nangona kunjalo, kodwa ingxaki kukuba silawula inkqubo ngokuyila imithetho ethi ithobe ngabom. Ndicinga ukuba le yingxaki enkulu kunezi sizazi ngokucacileyo. Le yingxaki yengqondo apho abantu babuza umbuzo: "Ungaziva njani ukhuselekile ngelixa ukwimoto eziqhubayo?"
Ndajonga kwimbali ndafumanisa ukuba kwikhulu leminyaka eyadlulayo enye yeemanyano ezinamandla kakhulu eNew York yayiyimanyano yabasebenzi be-elevator, eyayidibanisa abasebenzi abangamawaka ali-17. Ngendlela, ngelo xesha kwakukho iteknoloji apho unokucofa nje iqhosha kwaye uyenziwe, kodwa abantu abazange bathembele! Kuyoyikeka ukucofa iqhosha ngokwakho ukufowunela ilifti! Ngaba uyazi ukuba kutheni le manyano yabasebenzi "ifa" kwaye abantu baqala ukusebenzisa amaqhosha ngokwabo? Kuba ngenye imini abasebenzi be-elevator bagqiba ekubeni bagwayimbe. Bagwayimba, baza ke abantu ekwakufuneka banyukele phezulu kwi-Empire State Building bazibeka esichengeni sokucofa amaqhosha ngezabo izandla.
Khumbula oko bakutsho kwiminyaka engama-20-30 eyadlulayo ngabantwana okanye abazukulwana xa befika emva kwevili lemoto: “oku kubi, jonga nje izibalo, kuba iimoto zezona zizathu ziphambili zokufa kwabantu, bangazifaka njani emngciphekweni. ubomi babo?”
Ke, konke oku kuyingqondo emsulwa. Asiyihoyanga kangako into yokuba bangaphi abantu abafa kwiingozi zemoto, kodwa xa umntu omnye ebulewe yimoto eziqhubayo, eso siganeko sibethwa ngumoya ngendlela engaqhelekanga. Nayiphi na i-glitch, nayiphi na impazamo kwi-teknoloji ye-intelligence intelligence igutyungelwa ngokukhawuleza kumaphepha angaphambili amaphephandaba. Kodwa jonga amanani, jonga inani lezehlo, kwaye uya kubona ukuba yiyiphi ipesenti encinci yenani leengozi zizonke. Ngoko ke, ibutho labantu liya koyisa kuphela ukuba linokuhambela phambili ngaphandle kokuphazanyiswa luloyiko olunjalo.
Omnye umba uvela xa sithetha ngeendaba ezingeyonyani okanye i-cybersecurity, ezi zizihloko zezopolitiko kwaye ndifumana iifowuni ezininzi ezibuza ukuba ndiqhubana njani nabazondayo be-AI. Ngokomzekelo, ndibhala iblogi rhoqo, kwaye isithuba sam esitsha, esiza kupapashwa kwiintsuku ezimbalwa, sithetha ngenzondo kunye nenyaniso yokuba ukusindiswa kwinzondo kulwazi, ekufundeni. Sifanele siqonde ukuba le ngxaki yayikhona kwakudala ngaphambi kokuba zonke ezi zinto zenziwe, yinto nje yokuba ukubaluleka kwayo kuye kwanda ngokubonga kwi-Intanethi, efikelela kwizigidi kunye neebhiliyoni zabantu.
Ndicinga ukuba yinto entle ngokwenene xa umntu ezama ukumisa inkqubela ngokuzama ukwaphula i-AI, kwaye uyazi ukuba ayizukusebenza kuba sinoPutin nabanye abantu ababi, naphi na apho bakhoyo, abasebenzisa ngokuchasene nathi bubuchwephesha bethu obudalwe ngaphakathi. ilizwe elikhululekileyo. Ke ndicinga ukuba kufuneka siyamkele nje njengenikiweyo.
Umongo wengxaki ungaphakathi kwethu kuphela, kwaye iimpendulo zemibuzo zilele ngaphakathi kwethu, ngamandla ethu kunye nokuzithemba kwethu. Ndixoxa ngelithi oomatshini abakrelekrele abanakusenza “siphelelwe lixesha.” Nangona kunjalo, kufuneka kukhunjulwe ukuba kukho imiqathango ethile malunga nentsebenziswano yabantu nekhompyutha, kwaye ubukhulu becala la ngamarhe abekho ngaphambili. Njengesiqhelo, la ngamathuba amatsha nje atshabalalisa ihlabathi elidala kwaye enze elinye elitsha, kwaye okukhona sisiya phambili, kokukhona siya kuba ngcono.
Kule mihla ifana kakhulu nokufudukela kwihlabathi leentsomi zesayensi. Umnqa kukuba, ukuba sijonga emva kwiminyaka engama-50-60, siya kubona ukuba ngezo mini intsomi yenzululwazi yayinyanisekile, yayiyi-utopia epheleleyo. Nangona kunjalo, kwabakho utshintsho oluthe ngcembe ukusuka kwi-utopia ukuya kwi-dystopia, ngendlela yokuba asisafuni ukuva nantoni na malunga nekamva lomntu.
Oku akuzange kwenzeke ngobusuku nje obunye. Kwakukho ixesha apho abantu bagqiba kwelokuba ukuhlola indawo kuyingozi kakhulu. Ngokwenene lo ngumngcipheko omkhulu, kodwa khawufane ucinge ukuba ngo-1969, xa abantu baseMelika befika enyangeni, onke amandla e-computing ye-NASA ayengaphantsi kwamandla aso nasiphi na isixhobo sekhompyutha sanamhlanje esingena epokothweni yakho. Esi sixhobo sinamandla aphindwe kaliwaka kune-supercomputer eyayikho kwiminyaka engama-40 eyadlulayo. Khawufane ucinge amandla ekhompyuter onawo epokothweni yakho! Nangona kunjalo, andiqinisekanga ukuba i-Apple iPhone 7 inamandla afanayo ekhompyutheni awayenayo i-Apollo 7, oko kukuthi, iyakwazi ukuvelisa umphumo ofanayo.
Nangona kunjalo, oomatshini baye basinika inkqubela phambili enkulu emajukujukwini okanye elwandle, kwaye kufuneka siqonde ukuba iikhompyutha zisinika amandla okuthatha ingozi enkulu.
Ndingathanda ukuqukumbela intetho yam ngenqaku elakhayo. Ngaba esi silayidi asibonisi imifanekiso eyakhayo? Ifoto ekwikona esezantsi ngasekunene ayifotoshop, ndiye ndadibana neTerminator ngo-2003.
Kwakhona wayeyithanda i-chess ukususela ebuntwaneni, kodwa akazange ayifunde ngokuthe ngqo, ngoko walahlekelwa ngokukhawuleza. Ngoko ndothuka kakhulu xa kwiinyanga ezi-6 kamva wabalekela irhuluneli yaseCalifornia waza waphumelela!
Kutheni ndisithi le mifanekiso ilungile? Kuba nangona kuzo zonke iziqendu ngaphandle kweyokuqala, uArnold omdala uhlala emi kwicala labaphumeleleyo kwaye akaze adinwe ukulwa noomatshini abatsha, kukwisiqendu sokuqala apho sibona indibaniselwano ebendithetha ngayo - oku kuxa a umntu kunye nomatshini omdala kunye nojongano olugqibeleleyo loyisa eyona moto intsha.
Usenokuthi: “Ewe, oomatshini bomelele kunabantu, kuba bayakwazi ukubala yonke into!” Noko ke, ingongoma asikokuba bayakwazi ukubala yonke into. Ngokomzekelo, kwi-chess singakwazi ukuthetha ngobuchwepheshe malunga nokungapheli kwezibalo zenani leentshukumo ezinokwenzeka, ezilingana no-1045, okungekho nzima kuyo nayiphi na ikhompyutha yanamhlanje ukubala. Nangona kunjalo, into ebalulekileyo kumdlalo ayikho izibalo, kodwa inyaniso yokuba ikhomputha iphambi komntu, kuba ihlala ikhokelwa yimithetho. Kwaye uyayazi impembelelo yale mithetho kwaye uyazi ukuba kutheni ikhompyuter ikhetha eyona ntshukumo ilungileyo ukusuka kuluhlu olukhulu lweentshukumo ezinokwenzeka.
Kodwa ukuba siguqukela kubomi bokwenyani, andiqinisekanga ukuba ikhompuyutha ingasoloko iluncedo. Makhe sijonge eyona meko iqhelekileyo - unekhompyuter ebeka iliso kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwakho, usevenkileni kwaye sele uza kuthenga isipho sexabiso eliphezulu. Ikhompyuter ivavanya ukuthengwa kwaye ithi, "hayi, awunakukwazi ukuyithenga le nto kuba uya kuba ngaphezulu kohlahlo lwabiwo-mali." Umatshini ubale yonke into, kodwa kukho i-nuance encinci - umntwana wakho umi ecaleni kwakho, kwaye esi sipho senzelwe usuku lwakhe lokuzalwa. Ngaba uyayibona indlela oku kutshintsha ngayo iimeko zengxaki? Oku kutshintsha yonke into kuba umntwana ulindele esi sipho.
Ndingaqalisa ukongeza ezi zinto zincinci zitshintsha yonke into, kodwa andiqondi ukuba zinokufakwa kwinkcazo yengxaki kwaye zifumane isisombululo esifanelekileyo. Sinemithetho emininzi, kodwa kusafuneka sibuze imibuzo kuba izinto ziyatshintsha. Oku kunokuthiwa yimeko eqhelekileyo, kodwa ukuba ukhangele ezi filimu, unokuthi imeko eboniswe apha iyamangalisa kwaye iyamangalisa. Esi silayidi sibonisa isandi esisuka kwiSiqendu V seNkwenkwezi zeNkwenkwezi: UBukhosi Bubetha Emva.
U-Han Solo uqhuba inqanawa ngqo kwibala le-asteroid, kwaye i-C-3PO ixhala, inika ingxelo yokuba ithuba lokusinda kwintsimi ngu-1: 3122 u-Han Solo umxelela, "Ungakhe undixelele ukuba ngawaphi amathuba ethu!" Nanku umbuzo ophakamayo, ngubani olunge ngakumbi kule meko?
Itekhnoloji emelwe yi-C-3PO ichanekile ngokupheleleyo, kuba ithuba lokusinda liba ngu-zero. Kunokwenzeka ukuba, ngokwembono yerobhothi, ukubanjwa yimikhosi yama-Imperial lukhetho olungcono ukuba umntu akanakucinga nokuba afele kwintsimi ye-asteroid. Kodwa ukuba ikhomputha ithatha isigqibo sokuba ukuzinikela ebukhosini yeyona ndlela ilungileyo, ngoko sinokucinga ukuba umntu akanako konke okukhethwa kukho. Eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu kukuba kuzo zombini iimeko, eziqhelekileyo nezingaqhelekanga, sinethuba lokwenza isigqibo sokugqibela, kwaye ukwenza isigqibo esinjalo kusafuna ubunkokeli bomntu.
Ngamanye amaxesha oku kuthetha ukuba kufuneka uhambe ngokuchasene neengcebiso zekhompyuter. Ingongoma yobunkokeli bomntu asikokwazi iingxaki, kodwa kukubuza imibuzo ebaluleke ngokwenene, kungekuphela nje namhlanje okanye ngomso, kodwa kude kuse kwixesha elizayo. Le nkqubo inokubizwa ngokuba "isikhokelo somntu" okanye "ukungenelela kwabantu", impembelelo ngaphandle koncedo koomatshini abanengqondo. Le yindlela esimele ukuba yiyo kule nkulungwane.
Abantu ngamanye amaxesha bayamangaliswa lithemba lam malunga noomatshini abakrelekrele, ndinikwe amava am kunye nabo, kodwa ngokwenene ndinethemba. Kwaye ndiqinisekile ukuba nonke ninethemba elilinganayo ngekamva le-AI. Kodwa kufuneka sikhumbule ukuba itekhnoloji yethu i-agnostic. Ayilungile okanye ayimbi, kodwa inokusetyenziselwa kokubini okulungileyo nokubi. Oomatshini kufuneka babe krelekrele kwaye babe nobuchule ngakumbi. Kwaye thina bantu kufuneka senze into enokwenziwa ngabantu kuphela - ukuphupha, ukuphupha ngokupheleleyo, kwaye ke siya kukwazi ukukhupha zonke izibonelelo eziziswa zezi zixhobo zitsha zimangalisayo.
Njengoko kucwangcisiwe, sisenemizuzu eli-10 eshiyekileyo yokuphendula imibuzo.
Umbuzo: Ngaba ucinga ukuba kuyakwenzeka ukwenza inkqubo yokufunda ngomatshini enokugqiba ukuba zeziphi iintshukumo ezihambelanayo nesimbo sokudlala somntu?
Kasparov: Okokuqala, asilindelanga ukuba ikhomputha isixelele inyathelo lokuqala kunye ne-17505 eseleyo. Ndicinga ukuba kufuneka sithembele kumatshini ukubonelela ngezona ngcebiso zihamba phambili kwiintshukumo ezizodwa. Ngendlela, abadlali abakumgangatho ophezulu basebenzisa iikhomputha njengesikhokelo, ukubanceda bathathe indawo efanelekileyo kakhulu kumdlalo. Ndiphinda kwakhona kwakhona - kwiimeko ezili-9 kwi-10, uvavanyo lwekhompyutheni lwemeko luphezulu kakhulu kunovavanyo olunokwenziwa ngumntu.
Umbuzo: Ngaba uyavuma ukuba ubulumko bokwenene bufuna inkululeko yokuzikhethela, inkululeko yokwenza izigqibo ezinokwenziwa ngumntu kuphela? Emva kwakho konke, i-software ye-Deep Blue kunye nezinye iinkqubo zekhompyutheni zibhalwa ngabantu, kwaye xa ulahlekelwa kwi-Deep Blue, awulahlekelwanga kwikhompyutheni, kodwa kubadwelisi ababhala inkqubo. Umbuzo wam ngulo: ngaba kukho ingozi kulo naluphi na uhlobo lobukrelekrele bomatshini okoko nje iikhompyuter zinenkululeko yokuzikhethela?
Kasparov: apha kufuneka ndihambe kwisayensi ukuya kwifilosofi. Yonke into icacile malunga neBlue Blue - sisiphumo somsebenzi omkhulu wabantu. Kwiimeko ezininzi, nakwimeko kaDemis Hassabis 'AlphaGo, zonke ezi zimveliso zobukrelekrele bomntu. Andazi ukuba oomatshini banokuba nenkululeko yokuzikhethela na, kodwa ndiyakholelwa ukuba nantoni na esiyenzayo, ukuba siyayazi indlela yokwenza, oomatshini baya kuyenza ngcono. Noko ke, xa sisenza izinto ezininzi, asiyazi indlela yokuzenza ngeyona ndlela ifanelekileyo, ngoko ngokufuthi asikwazi ukuqonda oko siya kuphumelela. Ukubeka nje, sinenjongo, kodwa asiyazi ukuba yintoni, kwaye indima yomatshini kukusinceda ukuba siqonde loo njongo. Ngoko ke, ukuba sithetha ngokukhetha ngokukhululekileyo kwiikhomputha, ngoko kufuneka kuncede ukusibophelela kule njongo. Ndicinga ukuba eli likamva elikude kakhulu leekhompyuter.
Umbuzo: Ucinga ntoni ngeempawu zobuntu ezinje ngenkalipho nokuziphatha okuhle, kunye nezigqibo ezinokuthathwa bubulumko bokwenziwa ngokusekelwe kuzo? Ngokomzekelo, yintoni efanele iyenze inqwelo-mafutha eziqhubayo—igibele umntwana okanye iphephe ukumbetha ngokuntlitheka elityeni ize ibulale umkhweli wayo?
I-Kasparov: Yiloo nto abantu ababiza ngayo "iimvakalelo", azinakulinganiswa ngenxa yokuba ziyiqela elipheleleyo leempawu ezahlukeneyo zobuntu. Ukuba sithetha ngesibindi, ngoko olu phawu luhlala luphikisana namathuba okukhetha ukhetho olufanelekileyo. Ubukroti, njengezinye iimvakalelo zomntu, ngokwenkcazo ngokuchasene nokubala ngokuchanekileyo.
Umbuzo: Mnu. Kasparov, umbuzo wam awukhathaleli iikhomputha: yintoni ekwiflask yakho kwaye ndingayizama?
Kasparov: uthetha ukuthini?
Umamkeli: Ubuza ukuba kukho ntoni epokothweni yakho!
Kasparov: epokothweni yam? "Stolichnaya"! Le ayisosibhengezo, ukuba uqaphele, ndiyilahle kude.
Umbuzo: Ucinga ukuba ngubani oza kuba yintshatsheli yehlabathi yechess kwaye ngaba umdlali omncinci waseTshayina wechess u-Wei Yi unethuba lokususa uCarelsen njengokumkani wechess?
UKasparov: UKarelsen ngumdlali we-1, akayiyo intshatsheli yehlabathi, kodwa ngumdlali obalaseleyo we-chess emhlabeni ngokomlinganiselo. Ugqiba iminyaka engama-27 kulo nyaka, ngoko ke usemncinci, kodwa akamncinci kakhulu ngokwemigangatho yanamhlanje. Ndicinga ukuba u-Wei Yi uneminyaka eli-18 okanye eli-19 ngoku. UMagnus uphambi kwabadlali abancinci abanjengabantu baseMelika uWesley So kunye noFabiano Kerouana, kwaye uWei Yi unokuba ngumchasi wakhe. Nangona kunjalo, ukuze ube yintshatsheli yehlabathi, udinga italente, akufuneki ube mncinci kwaye ube namandla, ube nethamsanqa elincinci. Ngoko, ukuphendula umbuzo, ndingatsho - ewe, unethuba lokubetha uMagnus Carelsen.
Umbuzo: Xa ubuthetha malunga ne-algorithms yokumisela kunye nokufunda koomatshini, ukhankanye ithuba lokusebenzisa oomatshini njengezixhobo zokuxhasa ubukrelekrele bethu. Kuthekani malunga nokwandisa izixhobo ngaphambi kokudala i-AI enamandla, okanye nokuba ubeke ingqondo yomntu kwikhompyuter?
Kasparov: Andinamahloni ukuvuma ukungazi kwam xa ndingaqinisekanga ukuba andinakukwazi ukuphendula umbuzo ngokuchanekileyo. Ndizama ngako konke endinako ukuqonda ukuba yintoni ingqondo yomntu, ukuba siyayiqwalasela ngokwahlukileyo kumzimba womntu, yeyiphi imisebenzi eyenzayo. Kuba kunzima ukucinga ukuba ingqondo iya kuziphatha njani ngokwahlukileyo emzimbeni. Mhlawumbi uvavanyo olunjalo lunokwenziwa kwixesha elizayo, kodwa ndiqinisekile ukuba ukudibanisa kwengqondo yomntu, iimvakalelo zomntu kunye neemvakalelo kunye nekhompyutheni kuya kwenza "ingqondo" eya kusebenza ngakumbi kunokuba ingqondo isusiwe kwaye ifakwe emkhenkceni, esetyenzisiweyo. njengesixhobo esizaliswe yimithambo-luvo.
Umbuzo: Ngaba kukho indlela esisiseko yehlabathi jikelele kwingxaki yokutshintsha imisebenzi yabantu ngeekhompyutha?
Kasparov: Ndicinga ukuba lo ngumbuzo obaluleke kakhulu, kuba kucacile ukuba sisondela kwindawo apho abantu abaninzi banokungasebenzi. Lo ngumnqa wenkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji: kwelinye icala, sinobuchwepheshe bamva nje obubonelela ngenzuzo enkulu yokhuphiswano kwisizukulwana esincinci esijongana nezi zixhobo kunye nobuchwepheshe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sinenkqubela phambili kwiyeza kunye nokutya okunempilo, okwandisa ubomi bomntu kwaye kunika umntu amandla okusebenza iminyaka emininzi. Ngale ndlela, isizukulwana se-50s, 60s okanye i-40s asikwazi ukukhuphisana nolutsha lwanamhlanje. Kufuneka sifumane isisombululo kule meko ididayo apho umsantsa phakathi kwezizukulwana ubanzi kakhulu. Amava embali athi umsantsa onjalo uhlala ukhokelela ekuqhumeni okukhulu. Ndithetha umsantsa phakathi kweziseko ezingundoqo zentlalo yoluntu kunye nenkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe.
Lo ngumba oosopolitiki abakhetha ukuwubeka phantsi kude kube lunyulo oluzayo. Akukho mntu ufuna ukuthetha ngayo kuba ngumba obuthathaka. Kulula kakhulu ukuprinta imali kwaye unethemba lokuba umntu uya kuyihlawulela ngenye imini kwixesha elizayo. Ngoko kukho ii-paradox ezininzi kule ndawo, umzekelo, ukuqokelela amatyala okubonelela ngeziqinisekiso zentlalo kwisizukulwana esidala ngokulindela ukuba umthwalo wokuhlawula la matyala uya kuwela kumagxa esizukulwana esincinci. Kukho imibuzo emininzi endingenazo iimpendulo kuyo, kwaye mininzi imibuzo endinokuyibuza endithemba ukuba i-AI ingandinceda ngayo.
Imbi kakhulu into yokuba amashumi eminyaka abezopolitiko bezama ukungazinanzi ezi ngxaki sigqiba kuthetha ngazo. Bahlala bekulungele ukwenza iingxelo, bahlala benezicwangciso, kodwa abafuni ukuqonda ukuchasana kokugcina ukuthula malunga nengxaki yokungqubuzana phakathi kweteknoloji kunye noluntu. Enkosi ngosinaka kwakho!
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