Ubomi ngo-2030

UmFrentshi uFabrice Grinda wayesoloko ethanda ukuthatha umngcipheko - uye watyala imali ngempumelelo kumakhulu eenkampani: i-Alibaba, i-Airbnb, i-BlaBlaCar, i-Uber kunye ne-analogue yaseRashiya yokuBhukha - inkonzo yase-Oktogo. Unethuku elikhethekileyo leentsingiselo, malunga nokuba ikamva linokuba yintoni na.

UMonsieur Grinda akazange atyale imali kuphela kumashishini abanye abantu, kodwa wakha neyakhe. Ngokomzekelo, ibhodi yemiyalezo ye-intanethi i-OLX, esetyenziswa ngamakhulu ezigidi zabantu, yingqondo yakhe.

Ukongeza, ngamanye amaxesha uchitha ixesha kubuchule bokubhala kwaye ubhala izincoko eziphikisanayo kodwa ezinomdla. Malunga nokuba yintoni na kwaye iya kuba yintoni. Unomdla kwixesha elizayo - zombini njengomtyali-mali kunye nombono.

Kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo, wenze udliwanondlebe kwimagazini yeAlliancy exoxa ngehlabathi ngo-2030.

Imagazini yeAlliancy: Loluphi utshintsho olukhulu olubonayo kwiminyaka eli-10?

Fabrice: I-Intanethi yezinto, umzekelo, iifriji eziodola ukutya xa kuphelelwa, ukuhanjiswa kwedrone kunye nokunye okunjalo. Konke kuyeza. Ukongeza, ndibona impumelelo ebalulekileyo kwiinkalo ezintlanu: iimoto, unxibelelwano, amayeza, imfundo kunye namandla. Itekhnoloji ikhona, ikamva sele lifikile, ayifani nje yonke indawo. Ukusasazwa okukhulu kufuna iindleko eziphantsi kunye nokulula kokusetyenziswa.

Iimoto ziya kuba "kwabelwana ngazo". Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iimoto eziziqhubayo sele ziqhube izigidi zeekhilomitha ngaphandle kwesiganeko. Kodwa ukuba imoto eqhelekileyo e-States ixabisa i-avareji engaphantsi kwe-20.000 yeedola, ngoko inkqubo evumela ukuba uyiguqule ibe yimoto yokuziqhuba ixabisa malunga ne-100.000. Ukusuka kwimbono yezemali, ukusetyenziswa ngokubanzi kusengenakwenzeka. Kwakhona akukho siseko sisemthethweni, ekubeni kuyimfuneko ukwenza isigqibo sokuba ngubani oya kuba noxanduva kwimeko yengozi.

Kuthekani ngenzuzo?

Iimoto zingumthombo wesibini wenkcitho yebhajethi yendlu, nangona malunga ne-95% yexesha abangasebenziyo. Abantu basaqhubeka nokuthenga iimoto kuba zibiza kancinci kunokusebenzisa u-Uber nomqhubi, kwaye imoto ifumaneka nanini na, ingakumbi kwiindawo ezigqagqeneyo.

Kodwa xa iindleko zomqhubi zinyamalala kwaye iimoto zizimele, iindleko eziphambili ziya kuba kukuhla kwexabiso kwiminyaka emininzi. Imoto "ekwabelwana ngayo", esetyenziswa i-90% yexesha, iya kuba nexabiso eliphantsi kakhulu - ngoko ke kuwo onke amanqanaba, ukuba nemoto akusayi kuba sengqiqweni. Amashishini aya kuthenga iimoto ezininzi emva koko azibonelele kwamanye amashishini aza kuziqhuba, njengo-Uber, eneshedyuli ebambeneyo eyaneleyo yokuba imoto iza kufumaneka kwimizuzu embalwa, kubandakanywa kwiindawo ezinabantu abambalwa. Oku kuya kuluphazamisa ngakumbi uluntu kuba ukuqhuba ngowona mthombo wengqesho eUnited States. Uninzi lwabasebenzi luya kukhululwa, kwaye iindleko zokuqhuba ziya kuhla.

Ngaba kuye kwakho utshintsho kunxibelelwano?

Hayi. Isixhobo esiqhelekileyo, ngaphandle kokuba kunzima ukucinga ubomi, ifowuni yeselula, iya kunyamalala ngokupheleleyo. Ngokomgaqo, sele senze inkqubela phambili ebonakalayo "ekufundeni kwengqondo" kwaye sikwinqanaba elifanayo njengoko ukuqondwa kwelizwi kwakuyiminyaka eyi-15 edlulileyo. Emva koko, ngenxa yezi njongo, kwakufuneka ube nekhadi elikhethekileyo elinamandla neeyure zoqeqesho ukuze ilizwi lakho libe nokuqondwa kakuhle. Namhlanje, ngokubeka isigcina-ntloko esinee-electrode ezili-128 entloko ngeeyure ezifanayo zoqeqesho, unokufunda ukulawula ngengqondo ikhesa kwisikrini kwaye uqhube inqwelomoya. Ngo-2013, unxibelelwano lwengqondo ukuya ebuchotsheni lwenziwa; umntu, esebenzisa amandla okucinga, wakwazi ukuhambisa isandla somnye umntu...

Ngo-2030, siya kusebenza apho sifuna khona, xa sifuna kwaye ixesha elide njengoko sifuna.

Silindele ntoni?

Kunokwenzeka ngokupheleleyo ukuba kwiminyaka eli-10 siya kuba nee-electrode ezicacileyo nezingabonakaliyo ebuchotsheni bethu, esivumela ukuba sisebenzise iingcinga zethu ukuhambisa imiyalelo kwikhompyuter encinci ukusibonisa ii-imeyile, iitekisi zisebenzisa ii-laser kwiiglasi eziya kuzibonisa. iretina okanye ukusebenzisa iilensi zoqhagamshelwano ezikrelekrele.

Siya kuba nohlobo "lwe-telepathy ephuculweyo", siya kutshintshana ngolwazi ngengqondo: Ndicinga ukuba isicatshulwa, siyithumele kuwe, uyifunde kwi-retina okanye kwiilensi zoqhagamshelwano. Asisayi kuphinda sifune isixhobo esinxitywayo esinesikrini esincinci kwaye intloko yethu ihlale ijonge kuyo, nto leyo esiphazamisayo kwaye imida intsimi yethu yokujonga. Kodwa nakwiminyaka eyi-10 oku kuya kuba sisiqalo kuphela. IiLaser ezinokuthumela imifanekiso kwiretina zikhona, kodwa iilensi zisekumgangatho ophantsi. Ukufunda kwengqondo kusekuqikelelo kwaye kufuna i-supercomputer ene-128 electrode. Ngo-2030, ukulingana kwe-supercomputer enjalo kuya kuxabisa i-$ 50. Kungathatha iminyaka engama-20-25 ukuphuhlisa ngokwaneleyo i-electrode encinci kunye nesebenzayo, kunye neenkqubo ezihambelanayo. Nangona kunjalo, ii-smartphones ngokuqinisekileyo ziya kunyamalala.

Kuthekani ngamayeza?

Namhlanje, oogqirha abahlanu banokunikezela ngoxilongo oluhlanu olwahlukeneyo lwesifo esifanayo kuba abantu abakho kakuhle ekuxingeni. Ngaloo ndlela, i-Watson, i-supercomputer evela kwi-IBM, ingcono kunoogqirha ekuchongeni iintlobo ezithile zomhlaza. Kukho ingqiqo kule nto, kuba ithathela ingqalelo yonke i-micron yeziphumo ze-MRI okanye i-X-reyi, kwaye ugqirha akajongi ngaphezu kwemizuzu embalwa. Kwiminyaka emi-5, uxilongo luya kufumaneka kuphela kwiikhompyuter; kwiminyaka eyi-10, siya kuba nesixhobo sokuxilonga jikelele kuzo zonke izifo eziqhelekileyo, kubandakanya umkhuhlane, i-HIV kunye nezinye.

Ngexesha elifanayo, ukuguqulwa kuya kwenzeka kuqhaqho. Ugqirha werobhothi "uDa Vinci" sele enze imisebenzi yezigidi ezihlanu. Utyando luza kuqhubeka lukhula ngokukhula kwerobhothi okanye luzenzekela, lucutha umsantsa wemveliso phakathi koogqirha botyando. Okokuqala, iindleko zamayeza ziyakuqala ukuhla. Ukongezelela, onke amaphepha kunye nokungasebenzi kakuhle kolawulo kuya kuhamba emva kokuphunyezwa kweerekhodi zonyango lwe-elektroniki. Kwiminyaka eyi-10 siya kuba noxilongo kunye nengxelo eqhubekayo malunga nento esifanele siyenze malunga nesondlo, amayeza, utyando olusebenzayo kunye neendleko zonyango eziphantsi kakhulu.

Enye revolution - imfundo?

Ukuba besinokumhambisa uSocrates kwixesha lethu, ebengayi kuqonda nto ngaphandle nje kwendlela abantwana bethu abafundisa ngayo: abafundisi-ntsapho abahlukeneyo bathetha neklasi yabafundi abali-15 ukusa kwabangama-35. Akukho sizathu sokuqhubeka nokufundisa abantwana bethu ngendlela eyayisenziwa ngayo kwiminyaka engama-2500 eyadlulayo, kuba umfundi ngamnye unezakhono ezahlukeneyo kunye nezinto anomdla kuzo. Ngoku ekubeni ihlabathi litshintsha ngokukhawuleza kangaka, khawucinge indlela ehlekisa ngayo into yokuba imfundo isikelwe ixesha ize iyeke emva kokuphuma esikolweni okanye eyunivesithi. Imfundo kufuneka ibe yinkqubo eqhubekayo, eyenzeka kubo bonke ubomi, kwaye isebenze ngakumbi.

QAPHELA kumhleli: Ndiyakwazi ukucinga indlela uSocrates anokumangaliswa ngayo xa ebona indlela yethu ngamandla. Ukuba i-intensives engaxhunyiwe kwi-intanethi ngaphambi kobhubhani we-coronavirus yayisafana nemfundo yakudala (iholo yenkomfa, abafundisi-zisithethi, abafundi etafileni, endaweni yeetafile zodongwe okanye i-papyrus, iilaptops kunye neetafile, endaweni ye "maieutics" okanye "i-Socratic irony" Docker okanye ikhosi ephambili kwiKubernetes kunye namatyala asebenzayo), engazange itshintshe kakhulu kwizixhobo ukususela kwixesha lamandulo, emva koko iintetho nge-Zoom, igumbi lokutshaya kunye nonxibelelwano kwiTelegram, iintetho kunye nokurekhoda kwevidiyo yeeklasi kwi-akhawunti yakho ... Ngokuqinisekileyo, uSocrates akayiqondi le nto. . Ke ikamva sele lifikile - kwaye asizange siqaphele. Kwaye ubhubhani we-coronavirus usishukumisele ukuba sitshintshe.

Oku kuya kutshintsha njani izakhono zethu?

Kwiindawo ezinjenge-Coursera, umzekelo, oyena njingalwazi ubalaseleyo kwishishini lakhe ubonelela ngezifundo ze-intanethi kubafundi abangama-300.000. Kuyavakala ngakumbi ukuba oyena titshala ubalaseleyo afundise inani elikhulu labafundi! Kuphela ngabo banqwenela ukufumana isidanga bahlawulela ukubhala iimviwo. Oku kwenza inkqubo ilunge ngakumbi.

Kuthekani ngezikolo eziziiprayimari nezizisekondari?

Ngoku, ezinye izikolo zivavanya inkqubo yokufundisa ezenzekelayo. Apha utitshala akasenguye umatshini wokuthetha, kodwa ungumqeqeshi. Uqeqesho lwenziwa kusetyenziswa isoftware, ethi emva koko ibuze imibuzo kwaye ikwazi ukuziqhelanisa nabafundi. Ukuba umfundi wenza iimpazamo, ucwangciso luphinda loo mbandela ngezinye iindlela, yaye kuphela emva kokuba umfundi eqonde yonke into uye adlulele kwinqanaba elilandelayo. Abafundi beklasi enye bahamba ngesantya sabo. Oku akukuphela kwesikolo, kuba ngaphezu kolwazi, kufuneka ufunde ukunxibelelana nokusebenzisana, kuba oku kufuneka ujikelezwe ngabanye abantwana. Abantu zizidalwa eziqhelekileyo zokuhlala.

Enye into?

Impumelelo enkulu iya kuba kwimfundo eqhubekayo. Iimfuno zitshintsha kakhulu, kwiintengiso kwiminyaka embalwa edlulileyo kwakubalulekile ukwazi ukuba ungakwandisa njani ukubonakala kwakho kwiinjini zokukhangela (SEO). Namhlanje, kufuneka uqonde usetyenziso lwevenkile yosetyenziso (ASO). Wazi kanjani? Thatha iikhosi kwiindawo ezifana ne-Udemy, inkokeli kule ntsimi. Zenziwe ngabasebenzisi kwaye ziyafumaneka kuye wonke umntu nge-$1 ukuya kwi-10 yeedola...

QAPHELA kumhleli: Ngokunyaniseka, mna ngokobuqu andiqinisekanga ukuba izifundo ezenziwe ngabasebenzisi kunokuba iingcali zilumbono olungileyo. Ihlabathi ngoku lizaliswe ziiblogi zokuhamba kunye nobuhle. Ukuba ootishala-iibloggers zongeziweyo zikhukulisekile, kuya kuba nzima ukufumana izinto eziluncedo ngokwenene kunye nezobugcisa kwimfumba yomxholo. Ndiyazi kakuhle ukuba ungakanani umsebenzi ofunekayo kubantu abaninziukwenza ikhosi eluncedo ngokwenene ngokufanayo ukubeka iliso kunye nokugawulwa kwezakhiwo eKubernetes, engasekelwanga kwiincwadana zemigaqo namanqaku, kodwa kuqheliselo namatyala avavanyiweyo. Ewe, kwaye kwireki odibana nayo - ubuya kuba phi ngaphandle kwabo emsebenzini wakho kunye nokufunda izixhobo ezitsha.

Ngamafutshane, ngaba ihlabathi elisebenzayo liya kutshintsha?

I-Millennials (ezelwe emva kwe-2000) iyakuzonda ukusebenza ukusuka kwi-9 ukuya kwi-18, ukusebenzela umphathi, umphathi ngokwakhe. Ngoku sibona ukukhula okukhulayo kushishino lwase-US, oluphuculwe kukufumaneka kwenani lezicelo zenkonzo ezifunekayo. Isiqingatha semisebenzi edaliweyo ukusukela ngo-2008 ukudodobala koqoqosho ngabantu abazisebenzelayo okanye abo basebenzela u-Uber, ooPostmates (ukuhanjiswa kokutya ekhaya), i-Instacart (ukuhanjiswa kokutya okuvela kubamelwane).

Ezi ziinkonzo zobuqu ezifumanekayo xa uzicelile...

Iinkonzo zeCosmetologist, i-manicure, ukucheba iinwele, ukuthutha. Zonke ezi nkonzo ziphinde zavulwa ngokuguquguquka okukhulu. Ezi ngcinga zikwanenyani kucwangciso, ukuhlela, kunye neenkonzo zoyilo. Umsebenzi uya usiba ngokuncipha kwaye ufuna ixesha elincinci. IMillennials isebenza imini nobusuku kwiveki yokuqala kwaye emva koko iiyure ezintlanu elandelayo. Imali kubo yindlela yokufumana amava obomi. Ngo-2030 baya kwenza isiqingatha sabemi abasebenzayo.

Ngaba siya konwaba ngakumbi ngo-2030?

Akunjalo, ekubeni abantu bakhawuleza baziqhelanise notshintsho kwindawo yabo, inkqubo ebizwa ngokuba yi-hedonic adaptation. Nangona kunjalo, siya kuhlala singabaphathi bekamva lethu. Siya kusebenza kangangoko okanye kancinci njengoko sifuna. Ngokomlinganiselo, abantu baya kuba nempilo entle nemfundo. Iindleko zezinto ezininzi ziya kuba ngaphantsi, okukhokelela ekuphuculeni okubonakalayo kumgangatho wobomi.

Ngoko ke akuyi kubakho ukungalingani kwezentlalo?

Kukho intetho yokwandisa ukungalingani, kodwa eneneni kukho ukuhlangana kweeklasi zentlalo. Ngowe-1900, abantu abazizityebi baya ekhefini, kodwa kungekhona abantu abangamahlwempu. Namhlanje enye ibhabha kwijethi yabucala, enye kwi-EasyJet, kodwa bobabini bakhwela inqwelomoya baye ekhefini. I-99% yamahlwempu aseMelika anamanzi nombane, kwaye i-70% yawo inemoto. Xa ujonga izinto ezifana nokufa kweentsana kunye neminyaka elindelekileyo yokuphila, ukungalingani kuyehla.

Kuthekani ngotshintsho lwemozulu kunye neendleko zamandla, ngaba zinokuchaphazela ezi mpumelelo?

Lo mba uya kusonjululwa ngaphandle kokulawulwa kunye nokungenelela kukarhulumente. Siza kufudukela kuqoqosho olungenawo amalahle, kodwa ngenxa yezizathu zoqoqosho kuphela. I-megawatt enye yamandla elanga ngoku ixabisa ngaphantsi kwedola, xa ithelekiswa ne-100 yeedola ngowe-1975. Oku kube sisiphumo seenkqubo eziphuculweyo zemveliso kunye nemveliso. Ukulingana kweendleko zamandla elanga kuye kwaphunyezwa kwezinye iingingqi apho amaziko ombane okwakha abiza imali eninzi. Ngo-2025, ixabiso le-kilowatt yelanga liya kuba ngaphantsi kweendleko ze-kilowatt yamalahle ngaphandle kwenkxaso. Xa oku kusenzeka, amashumi eebhiliyoni zeerandi ziya kutyalwa kwinkqubo. Kwi-2030, ukuqaliswa ngokukhawuleza kwamandla elanga kuya kuqala. Ixabiso le-megawatt liya kuba liphantsi kakhulu, eliya kuthi linciphise iindleko zezinye izinto ezininzi kunye nokuphucula umgangatho wobomi. Ndinethemba elikhulu.

Ngabasebenzisi ababhalisiweyo kuphela abanokuthatha inxaxheba kuphando. Ngena, ndiyacela.

Ngaba uyazikholelwa iingqikelelo zikaFabrice Grinde?

• 28,9%Ewe, ndiyakholwa28

• 18,6%Hayi, ayinakwenzeka le nto18

• 52,6%Ndakhe ndaya phaya, Doc, akunjalo.51

Bali-97 abasebenzisi abavotileyo. Abasebenzisi abasi-25 abakhange.

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