Okokuqala, isicatshulwa (inde kakhulu, kodwa ibaluleke kakhulu, endiyicaphula ngesifinyezo):
“Njengoko ihlabathi lingena kwixesha elitsha, liye laxinana kakhulu kwaye liyakhawuleza. Olona phuhliso lukhawulezayo lwenzeka kwizixeko ezikhulu ezifana neLondon, iParis, iNew York kunye neChicago... kunye nesiqingatha sokwanda kwenzeka kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini edlulileyo kwinkulungwane. Noko ke, njengoko aba bantu baninzi (kunye nezinto zabo) babefuduka besuka kwenye indawo besiya kwenye, kwavela ingxaki. Iindlela eziphambili zothutho zenze inani leempembelelo, ezaziwa phakathi kwezoqoqosho njengezinto zangaphandle ezingalunganga: ezi zibandakanya ukuxinana kwezithuthi, izinga eliphezulu le-inshurensi ephezulu kakhulu kunye neengozi ezininzi zendlela ezibangela abantu ababuleweyo ... Ingxaki yongcoliseko lomoya ophuma kwizinto ezinobuthi ziye zavela. , esongela kokubini imekobume nempilo yabantu.
Ucinga ukuba sithetha ngeemoto? Akukho nto inje. Sithetha ngamahashe... Ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane yama-200, kwakukho malunga nama-17 amawaka amahashe asebenza kwisiXeko saseNew York kuphela - malunga nehashe elinye kubantu abali-XNUMX...
Iinqwelo ezirhuqwa ngamahashe zazizele zitrato, yaye ukuba ihashe lophuka umlenze, lalidla ngokuxhelwa ngoko nangoko. Oku kwakhokelela kolunye ulibaziseko. Abanini bamahashe abaninzi bathenga iipolisi zeinshorensi (ukukhusela kubuqhophololo) ezibonelela ngokuxhelwa kwesilwanyana ngomnye umntu. Oku kuthetha ukuba umnini kufuneka alinde amapolisa, ugqirha wezilwanyana, okanye i-ASPCA (Umbutho waseMelika ochasene neNkohlakalo kwiZilwanyana) ukuze ufike. Kodwa nasemva kokufa kwesilwanyana, ukuxinana akuzange kuphele. UEric Morris oyingcali kumalungiselelo ubhala athi: “Amahashe afileyo ayengalawuleki. Ngenxa yoko, abacoci babedla ngokulinda de zibole izidumbu, emva koko babenokusatywa ngokulula baze basuswe.”
Ingxolo yeenqwelwana nokungxola kweempuphu zabacaphukisa abantu kangangokuba kwezinye izixeko kwakungavumelekanga ukukhwela amahashe... Kwakulula kakhulu ukugilwa lihashe okanye inqwelo... Ngowe-1900, abantu baseNew York abangama-200 bafa. ngenxa yeengozi ezibandakanya amahashe, okanye enye yabemi abangamawaka ali-17. Ngo-2007, abantu baseNew York abangama-274 bafa ngenxa yeengozi zemoto (enye kuma-30). Oku kuthetha ukuba ngo-1900, umntu waseNew York wayephantse waphinda kabini ukufa ngenxa yokubethwa lihashe njengoko ephuma kwingozi yemoto namhlanje...
Eyona meko yayimbi yayikumgquba. Ihashe eliqhelekileyo livelisa malunga neekhilogram ezilishumi zomgquba ngosuku. Amahashe angama-200 amawaka avelisa ngaphezulu kweetoni ezingamawaka amabini. Yonke imihla, iintsuku ezisixhenxe ngeveki... Umgquba wawuphuphuma ezitalatweni zedolophu oku kwekhephu. Ehlotyeni, ivumba lalinyuka liye esibhakabhakeni. Xa kwafika ixesha leemvula, imijelo yomgquba wamahashe yaphuphuma kwiindlela ezihamba ngeenyawo kwaye yazalisa amagumbi angaphantsi kwezakhiwo zokuhlala... Ilindle elalilele ezitratweni laliyingozi kakhulu empilweni. Balungiselela indawo ezizalela kuyo amawaka ezigidi zeempukane ezisasaza izifo ezininzi ezibulalayo. Iimpuku zagudla iintaba zomgquba zifuna iinkozo zeoat ezingagatywanga kunye neentsalela zezinye ukutya kwamahashe - nto leyo, ngendlela, yayisiya ibiza kakhulu ngenxa yokukhula kwabemi bamahashe kunye nemfuno ehambelana nayo. Akukho mntu wayenexhala lokufudumala kwehlabathi ngelo xesha, kodwa ukuba kwakunokwenzeka, ihashe ngelaba lutshaba lokuqala lukawonke-wonke kuba umgquba ukhupha i-methane, igesi yobushushu obunamandla kakhulu.
Kwakubonakala ngathi ihlabathi lalifikelele kwinqanaba apho izixeko zazingenakukwazi ukuphila zinamahashe okanye zingenawo.
Kwaye ngequbuliso ingxaki yaphela. Oku akuzange kube ngenxa yesenzo sikarhulumente okanye ukungenelela kukaThixo. Abahlali besiXeko abazange baququzelele imibutho yasekuhlaleni okanye bakhuthaze ukuzibamba, besala ukusebenzisa amandla amahashe. Ingxaki yasombululwa ngobuchule bezobuchwepheshe ... Amahashe anyamalala ezitratweni ngenxa yokufika kwetram yombane kunye nemoto. Zombini ezi ndlela zishiye inkunkuma encinci kakhulu kwaye zisebenze ngokufanelekileyo kakhulu. Ixabiso eliphantsi ukuthenga nokuqhuba lula kunehashe, imoto iye yanconywa njengomsindisi wokusingqongileyo. Abahlali bezixeko ezijikeleze ihlabathi ekugqibeleni bakwazi ukuphefumla ngokunzulu ngaphandle kokubamba impumlo ngeminwe yabo kwaye baphinde baqhubeke nendlela yabo kwindlela yenkqubela phambili.
Ibali, ngelishwa, alipheli apho. Izisombululo ezisindise ihlabathi kwinkulungwane yama-XNUMX zaqala ukubeka iingozi kwinkulungwane ezayo: zombini iimoto kunye neetram zombane zinezazo zangaphandle ezimbi. Ukukhutshwa kwekharbhon monoxide evela kwiimoto ezingaphezulu kwebhiliyoni kunye namawaka emizi-mveliso yamandla okubaselwa ngamalahle kwisithuba senkulungwane kufudumeza umoya woMhlaba. Kanye njengokuba inkunkuma yamahashe ngaxa lithile yaqalisa ukusongela impucuko, ngoku kwenzeka into efanayo ngenxa yemisebenzi yabantu.
UMartin Weitzman, isazi ngezoqoqosho ngemekobume kwiYunivesithi yaseHarvard, uqikelela ukuba kukho amathuba asisi-5 ekhulwini okuba amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi anyuke kangangokuba aya “kutshabalalisa iSijikelezi-langa esinguMhlaba njengoko sisazi.” Kwezinye izangqa - umzekelo, kumajelo eendaba, ahlala ethanda ukuthetha malunga neemeko ezithile ze-apocalyptic - iimvakalelo ezibuhlungu zihamba ngakumbi.
Oku akufanele kusimangalise. Xa isisombululo sengxaki singalunganga phambi kwamehlo ethu, sityekela ekukholelweni ukuba ingxaki ayinaso isicombululo konke konke. Kodwa imbali isibonisa amaxesha ngamaxesha ukuba ezo ngcinga ziphosakele.
Uluntu ... lunamandla amangalisayo okufumana izisombululo zobuchwepheshe kwiingxaki ezibonakala zingenakunqandwa, kwaye oku kunokwenzeka ukuba kwenzeke kwimeko yokufudumala kwehlabathi. Ingongoma apha asikokuba incinci okanye inkulu kangakanani ingxaki. Ubuchule bomntu ... buhlala buguquka. Nangakumbi iindaba ezikhuthazayo kukuba izisombululo zeteknoloji zihlala zilula kakhulu (... zingabizi) kunokuba abaprofeti bentlekele banokucinga.
...Okumangalisayo kukuba, ixabiso lomgquba wamahashe liphinde lanyuka, kangangokuba abanikazi befama enye eMassachusetts kungekudala babhenela emapoliseni befuna kubanjwe ummelwane owayeqokelela umgquba kummandla wabo. Ngokokutsho kwalo mmelwane, oku kungaqondani kubangelwe kukuba umnini-fama wangaphambili wamvumela ukuba enze oku. Noko ke, umnini mtsha akazange avumelane noku waza wafuna umrhumo wama-600 eerandi kubugquba obuqokelelweyo.
Ngubani owajika waba ngulo mmelwane - umthandi womgquba? Akakho omnye ngaphandle kukaMartin Weizmann, ingcali yezoqoqosho ebeke phambili ingqikelelo eyoyikisayo yokufudumala kwehlabathi.
“Sivuyisana nawe,” wabhalela uWeizmann eli bali kumaphephandaba. "Uninzi lweengcali zezoqoqosho endizaziyo zingabathengisi bobuqhophololo." Kwaye, ngokucacileyo, nguwe kuphela ongenisa ngaphandle phakathi kwabo."
USteven D. Levitt kunye noStephen J. Dubner "Superfreakonomics" (upelo lokuqala kunye neziphumlisi zomguquleli zigciniwe).
Nantsi i-pseudo-epigraph enkulu evela kwiYunivesithi yaseChicago ingcali yezoqoqosho uSteven Levitt.
I-apocalypse irhoxisiwe. Nangona kunjalo, njengazo zonke ezinye iinketho "zokuphela kwehlabathi," ukuqala ngokunyuka kwabemi kunye nokungabikho kokutya, kunye nokuphela kokungabikho kwemithombo yendalo okanye amanzi okusela.
Kucacile ukuba kutheni ii-apocalypses zonqulo zirhoxiswa-imihla yazo ibekwe amaxesha amaninzi kangangokuba isikhalo esilandelayo se "ingcuka" asisakhathazi mntu. Ngeli xesha, isibhakabhaka sayeka ukuba sisibhakabhaka, kwaye unobangela we "big bang" waba nguThixo. Ukuxoxa ngesi sihloko, ngenene, kuyahlekisa kwaye "kungandilisekanga kancinci."
Kodwa iithiyori ezidumileyo malunga nokunqongophala kwamanzi (kunye "neemfazwe zamanzi"), malunga nokufudumala kwehlabathi (kwaye "oh, ukoyikeka, ukoyikeka, wonke umntu uya kuya emiqolombeni") inomdla kakhulu ukuyichitha.
Eyona mpazamo iphambili yazo zonke iingqikelelo zenzululwazi okanye i-pseudo-scientific apocalyptic inesiphene esikhulu. Bajikiwe.
Kwakukho inzululwazi enjalo (elungileyo kwaye ehlakaniphile) - uTomas Malthus. Ngokusekelwe kwidatha ekhoyo kwi-YEARS YEARS, wabeka phambili ithisisi ye-FUTURE CENTURIES ukuba ekubeni abantu banda ngokukhawuleza kunomlinganiselo wokutya owenziwe ngumntu, ngoko ... ukusilela kunye nentlekele. (Oku kufana kakhulu ne "" xa idatha engaziwayo ingahoywa njengengekhoyo.)
Kwanokuba uMalthus wayengenzanga nto yimbi ebomini bakhe (yaye wenjenjalo), bekufanele ukuba sibe nombulelo kuye kuphela ngale mpazamo yokuxela kwangaphambili. U-Smart (ngaphandle kokuphoxa) uMalthus wayehlala kwasekuqaleni kwenguqu kwezoshishino. Kakade ke, ngaphambi kokuba iqale. Kwaye akazange akwazi ukubona kwangaphambili ukufika kweetrektara, okanye izichumisi, okanye ukulawula izinambuzane, okanye iindlela zofuzo zokwandisa isixa sokutya. Ngaphambi kweMalthus, iinkulungwane kunye neenkulungwane zabantu babelima ngamahashe kwaye bachumisa ngomgquba.
Nangona kunjalo ... inkqubela yesayensi yayi (kwaye i) kwaye izibikezelo zikaMalthus zavela ziphosakele, nangona i-echoes zabo zisathandwa phakathi "kwenxalenye yabantu abangafundanga kakuhle." Nangona kunjalo, njengoluvo lokuba iLanga lijikeleza uMhlaba.
Into ehlekisayo kukuba zonke izibikezelo ezilandelayo ze-apocalyptic zizazinzulu, iingcali zenzululwazi kunye ne-ecologists yenza impazamo efanayo. Abayi kuqwalasela i-vector yophuhliso lwesayensi kunye nenkqubela phambili yezobuchwepheshe.
Kunzima ukubagxeka ngale nto, kuba olu luluvo lwabo. Kodwa ngokulula ubani unokutyholwa ngokubetha i-hysteria, enokuthelekiseka ngokupheleleyo nesiphithiphithi sonqulo. Kwaye i-hysterics ngokucacileyo ayihambelani nososayensi.
Kutheni le nto abantu abafundileyo, abaziyo malunga "nempazamo yeMalthus" kwaye babone inkqubela phambili yesayensi kunye nethekhnoloji yekhulu leminyaka edlulileyo, babethe i-hysterics? Yintoni ebangela ukuba izazi ngendalo ziphazamiseke? Yintoni ebangela ukubikezela kwabo, ngaphandle komcimbi wokufumana uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwe-hysteria elandelayo okanye "imbuyekezo" kwishishini?
Ngoko. Ngenkulungwane yama-20, kwaxelwa kwangaphambili ukuncipha kwezimbiwa, ukutshintsha kwemozulu nokunqongophala kwamanzi. Zonke ezi ziprofeto zachazwa njengee-apocalypse.
Ewe ... malunga neemaminerali, i-apocalypse eyayicwangciselwe i-1970 ... izibikezelo azizange zizaliseke. Konke ngenxa "yempazamo yexesha elidlulileyo" ekhoyo kwizibalo zikaMalthus. Okokuqala, iidiphozithi ezintsha zafunyanwa kwaye zaphuhliswa, kwaveliswa iindlela ezintsha zokutsalwa, kwaye kwayilwa nobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla. Kwaye namhlanje kucacile ukuba kukho iindawo zokugcina izimbiwa ezininzi kunokuba abantu baya kufuna ... kuba badinga ngaphantsi nangaphantsi. Iibhalbhu zokukhanya zisebenzisa umbane omncinci nangaphantsi, amakhaya kunye nemizi-mveliso iya iba namandla ngakumbi, kwaye ezinye iindlela zokuvelisa amandla ziphuhliswa ngenkuthalo (ilanga, umoya, ulwandle, njl. njl.). Inkunkuma ithunyelwa ukuba isetyenziswe kwakhona.
Ngokwenyani, oku kuphela kuya kwanela ukurhoxisa i-apocalypse yemozulu. Kodwa oku akukenzeki. Kwaye oku nangona imozulu eMhlabeni itshintshile amaxesha amaninzi, kuxhomekeke kwinqanaba elikhulu kakhulu kwindawo yoMhlaba ngokumalunga neLanga, umsebenzi welanga, imisinga yolwandle, ukuhamba kwamacwecwe e-lithospheric, kunye nomsebenzi we-volcanic. Izinto ezenziwa ngabantu, xa zithelekiswa nala mandla, azibalulekanga kwaphela. Kakade ke, umntu uye waba nempembelelo embi kakhulu kokusingqongileyo kwezi nkulungwane zimbini zidlulileyo (nangona kunjalo, iintlango ezininzi kuMbindi Mpuma nazo zavela ngenxa yezenzo ezimbi zabantu bamandulo). Nangona kunjalo ... oku kungahambi kakuhle kuhambelana nomthombo wamandla, kwaye ngoku kuyatshintsha. Kwaye oku kukhankanyiwe ngasentla.
Ngoko yintoni eya kuba krelekrele? Ngaba sifanele sichithe imali kwii-hysteric zezazinzulu zemozulu kunye neengcali zokusingqongileyo, okanye ngaba kuya kuba luncedo ngakumbi ukwakha izityalo ezininzi zelanga okanye zomoya ngale mali, ukuxhasa ukutshintshwa kweshishini kunye nabantu abavela kwiinjini zokutsha zangaphakathi ukuya kwiimoto zombane kunye neenqwelo zombane? Nangona kunjalo, ke "i-hysterics yendalo" ayiyi kufumana imali.
Ukuqukumbela. Abanamdla kwaphela kwimozulu. Banomdla kwinkxaso-mali.
Ngaloo ndlela, umzekelo, u-Elon Musk wenza okungakumbi ukunciphisa ingozi kwindalo evela kwimisebenzi yabantu kunabo bonke abasingqongileyo abadibeneyo kunye ne-hysterics abaye bajoyina.
I-apocalypse yefashoni yamva nje isemanzini. Kwaye akusayi kwenzeka. Kwaye isizathu siyafana. Ukuveliswa, ukucoceka ngenxa yokuba kunenzuzo ngakumbi, kuya kungcolisa amanzi ngaphantsi, amandla aya kuvela kwimithombo ecocekileyo, iindawo zokucoca ziya kuba zisimanjemanje, ubugcisa bokulondoloza amanzi buya kuphuhliswa (kuba bunenzuzo), oomatshini abakhethekileyo baya kufakwa kwiindawo ezomileyo. ezenza amanzi okusela emoyeni, kwiindawo eziselunxwemeni, njl. I-Desalination kunye nokuhlanjululwa nge-osmosis eguqukayo, njl njl. iya kusetyenziswa kwiindawo ... kwaye i-apocalypse ayiyi kuphinda yenzeke.
Ukuqukumbela. Ukuba awufumani i-hysterical, kodwa ucinge kwaye usombulule ingxaki, ngoko kuya kuba namandla okwaneleyo, amanzi, ukutya, umhlaba, kwaye ngokubanzi yonke into kuwo wonke umntu. Kwaye kuseza kubakho ngakumbi. Kwaye indalo nayo iya kucoceka ngakumbi. Ngokubanzi, "yonke into iya kuhamba kakuhle."
Kuwo wonke umntu ofunde kude kube sekupheleni - "Enkosi kakhulu."
Imizekeliso: .
PS Bafundi abathandekayo, ndiyanicela ukuba nikhumbule ukuba “Isitayile se-polemic sibaluleke ngakumbi kunomxholo we-polemic. Izinto ziyatshintsha, kodwa isitayile sidala impucuko. ” (uGrigory Pomerantz). Ukuba khange ndiphendule kuluvo lwakho, kukho into engalunganga ngesitayile sakho.
I-PS 2. Ndiyaxolisa kumntu wonke obhale inkcazo enengqondo, kodwa andizange ndiphendule. Ukuba usafuna ukufumana impendulo kwaye uxoxe ngenqaku, ungandibhalela umyalezo wabucala. Ndiyabaphendula.
PS 3. Andiyi kuphinda ndiphawule malunga nengxoxo "yobunye bemizekelo" njengentelekelelo, kuba kwinqaku esele lilikhulu imizekelo eyongezelelweyo ayisayi kubaqinisekisa abagxeki abaxhomekeke kwingxoxo "yobunye", kanye njengoko bengazange baqiniseke. ngenani elikhulu lemizekelo kwinqaku “"okanye inkitha yemizekelo enikwe kule ncwadi ayisayi kuqinisekisa"(landela ikhonkco - isishwankathelo esifutshane kunye noguqulelo lwe-elektroniki lokukhuphela), nangona emva komnye kula maninzi kukho amakhulu kunye namawaka emizekelo evela kwimisebenzi yezoqoqosho ezidumileyo ezikhankanywe kwincwadi.
I-PS 4. Nceda uxoxe ngeengxabano zikaSteven Levitt kunye naye ngokwakhe, kwaye kungekhona nombhali wenqaku. Ulwazi loqhagamshelwano luyafumaneka kwiwebhusayithi yeYunivesithi yaseChicago. Ukwanika iingxoxo ezininzi ezixhasa imbono yakhe kwincwadi yesayensi edumileyo "Superfreakonomics".
umthombo: www.habr.com
