Sithetha ngemithetho emibini eqala ukulahlekelwa ukubaluleka.
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UMthetho kaMoore waqulunqwa ngaphezu kweminyaka engamashumi amahlanu eyadlulayo. Ngalo lonke eli xesha, wahlala enobulungisa ubukhulu becala. Nanamhlanje, xa usuka kwinkqubo yetekhnoloji ukuya kwenye, ukuxinana kwee-transistors kwi-chip . Kodwa kukho ingxaki - isantya sophuhliso lweenkqubo ezintsha zobuchwepheshe ziyancipha.
Umzekelo, i-Intel ilibazise ukuveliswa kweeprosesa ze-Ice Lake ze-10nm ixesha elide. Ngelixa isigebenga se-IT siza kuqalisa ukuhambisa izixhobo kwinyanga ezayo, isibhengezo soyilo lwenzekile Kwiminyaka eyadlulayo. Kwakhona ngo-Agasti ophelileyo, umenzi wesekethe odibeneyo we-GlobalFoundries, osebenze ne-AMD, Iinkqubo zobugcisa ze-7-nm (ngaphezulu malunga nezizathu zesi sigqibo thina kuHabre).
ΠΈ Sele kuyiminyaka beqikelela ukufa komthetho kaMoore. Nditsho noGordon ngokwakhe ukuba umgaqo awuqulunqileyo uya kuyeka ukusebenza. Nangona kunjalo, umthetho kaMoore ayisiyiyo yodwa ipateni ephulukana nokubaluleka kunye nabavelisi beprosesa abalandelayo.
Umthetho kaDennard wokunyusa
Yayilwa ngo-1974 yinjineli kunye nomphuhlisi wememori eguqukayo ye-DRAM uRobert Dennard, kunye noogxa abavela kwi-IBM. Umgaqo uhamba ngolu hlobo:
"Ngokunciphisa ubungakanani be-transistor kunye nokunyusa isantya sewotshi yeprosesa, sinokuyandisa ngokulula ukusebenza kwayo."
Umthetho kaDennard waseka ukuncitshiswa kobubanzi bomqhubi (inkqubo yobugcisa) njengesalathisi esiphambili senkqubela phambili kushishino lweteknoloji ye-microprocessor. Kodwa umthetho kaDennard wokunyusa uyekile ukusebenza malunga no-2006. Inani le-transistors kwi-chips liyaqhubeka likhula, kodwa le nyaniso ekusebenzeni kwesixhobo.
Ngokomzekelo, abameli be-TSMC (umenzi we-semiconductor) bathi utshintsho ukusuka kwi-7 nm ukuya kwi-5 nm iteknoloji yenkqubo. isantya iwotshi iprosesa kuphela 15%.
Isizathu sokuncipha kokukhula rhoqo kukuvuza kwangoku, apho uDennard akazange athathele ingqalelo ekupheleni kweminyaka engama-70. Njengoko ubukhulu be-transistor buyancipha kwaye i-frequency yanda, okwangoku iqala ukutshisa i-microcircuit ngakumbi, enokuyonakalisa. Ngoko ke, abavelisi kufuneka balinganise amandla abelwe iprosesa. Ngenxa yoko, ukususela ngo-2006, ukuphindaphinda kwee-chips eziveliswe ngobuninzi zibekwe kwi-4-5 GHz.
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Namhlanje, iinjineli zisebenza kwitekhnoloji entsha eya kusombulula ingxaki kwaye yandise ukusebenza kwee-microcircuits. Ngokomzekelo, iingcali ezivela eOstreliya i-metal-to-air transistor ene-frequency yamakhulu aliqela egigahertz. I-transistor iqulethe i-electrode ezimbini zetsimbi ezisebenza njenge-drain kunye nomthombo kwaye zibekwe kumgama we-35 nm. Batshintshiselana ngee-elektroni omnye komnye ngenxa yento eyenzekayo .
Ngokutsho kwabaphuhlisi, isixhobo sabo siya kwenza ukuba sikwazi ukuyeka "ukusukelana" ukunciphisa iinkqubo zobuchwepheshe kunye nokugxila ekwakheni izakhiwo eziphezulu ze-3D kunye nenani elikhulu le-transistors kwi-chip.
Kumi Rule
Lakhe ngo-2011 ngunjingalwazi waseStanford uJonathan Koomey. Ekunye nabalingane beMicrosoft, Intel kunye neCarnegie Mellon University, yena kusetyenziso lwamandla kwiinkqubo zekhompyutha eziqala ngekhompyutha ye-ENIAC eyakhiwe ngo-1946. Ngenxa yoko, uKumi wafikelela kwesi sigqibo silandelayo:
"Umthamo wekhompyutha ngekilowatt nganye yamandla phantsi komthwalo omileyo uphinda kabini ngonyaka kunye nesiqingatha."
Ngelo xesha, waphawula ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ekhompyutheni kuye kwanda kwiminyaka edlulileyo.
Kwi-2015, uKumi kumsebenzi wakhe kwaye wongezelela isifundo ngedatha entsha. Wafumanisa ukuba umkhwa awuchazayo wehlile. I-avareji yokusebenza kwetshiphu ngekilowathi nganye yamandla iqale ukuphinda-phinda kabini qho kwiminyaka emithathu. Umkhwa utshintshile ngenxa yobunzima obunxulunyaniswa neechips zokupholisa (), ekubeni ubungakanani be-transistor buyancipha, kuba nzima ukususa ubushushu.
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Itekhnoloji entsha yokupholisa itshiphu iyaphuhliswa okwangoku, kodwa akukabikho nto ithethwayo ngokuphunyezwa kwazo ngobuninzi. Umzekelo, abaphuhlisi abavela kwiyunivesithi yaseNew York bacebise i-laser 3D yoshicilelo lokufaka umaleko obhityileyo oqhuba ubushushu we-titanium, i-tin kunye nesilivere kwikristale. I-thermal conductivity yento enjalo i-7 amaxesha angcono kunezinye i-interfaces ze-thermal (i-thermal paste kunye ne-polymers).
Nangona zonke iimeko , umda wamandla wethiyori usekude. Ucaphula uphando olwenziwa yingcali yefiziksi uRichard Feynman, owathi ngowe-1985 amandla asebenza ngokufanelekileyo ayeza kwanda izihlandlo ezili-100 lamawaka ezigidi. Ngexesha lika-2011, eli nani lenyuka ngamaxesha angama-40 amawaka.
Ishishini le-IT liqhele ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kumandla ekhompyutheni, ngoko iinjineli zifuna iindlela zokwandisa uMthetho kaMoore kwaye zinqobe imingeni ebekwe yimithetho kaCoomey kunye neDennard. Ngokukodwa, iinkampani kunye namaziko ophando afuna ukutshintshwa kwetekhnoloji ye-transistor kunye ne-silicon. Siza kuthetha ngezinye iindlela ezinokusetyenziswa kwixesha elizayo.
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