Umthombo REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko
Sawubona, Habr.
Unyaka ka-2020 ulungiselela ukuthi ube nezigigaba. Isimo sokuguqula umbala siyaqhakaza e-Belarus. Ngiphakamisa ukuthi ngikhiphe imizwa futhi ngizame ukubheka idatha etholakalayo yokuguquguquka kombala ukusuka endaweni yokubuka idatha. Ake sicabangele izici zempumelelo ezingase zibe khona, kanye nemiphumela yezomnotho yalokhu kuguquguquka.
Cishe kuzoba nezingxabano eziningi.
Uma kukhona onentshisekelo, sicela abone ikati.
Qaphela U-Vicki: Igama elithi "ukuguqulwa kombala" alinayo incazelo eqondile; abacwaningi bachaza izizathu, izinhloso nezindlela zokusetshenziswa kwazo ngezindlela ezahlukene. Kwesinye isikhathi leli gama lihunyushwa njengoshintsho lwemibuso ebusayo, olwenziwa ikakhulukazi kusetshenziswa izindlela zomzabalazo wezepolitiki ongenalo udlame (imvamisa imibhikisho emikhulu yasemgwaqweni).
Iqiniso lokuthi ukuguqulwa kombala kwenzeka eBelarus lithathwe emazwini ka-A.G. Lukashenko.
Isethi yedatha
Wonke ama-revolutions emibala angama-33 athathiwe (igama liwukuthi liyini. Umbhali uyaqhubeka nokusebenzisa leli gama, okuhlanganisa nokufaka imibala ehlulekile kanye nama-coups), ngokusho komthombo osebenze njenge , ngokuswela okungcono.
Izigaba ezilandelayo zithathwe:
- izwe [izwe]
- Qala [usuku okuqalwa ngalo] futhi isiphetho [idethi_yokuphela]. Ukuqala kwemibhikisho ngokwayo kwathathwa njengesisekelo, ngaphandle kokucabangela izethulo.
- Isizathu [Isizathu] - isigaba sincike endabeni, ngokusekelwe kumongo: ukunganeliseki ngenqubomgomo yamanje [ezombusazwe], imiphumela yokhetho [Ukhetho], izici zomnotho [ezomnotho], inkohlakalo [inkohlakalo]
- Impumelelo yenguquko [impumelelo] - ukuthi ngabe uguquko lwaba yimpumelelo yini. Inani kanambambili
- Inani lababhikishi. Izilinganiso zenani labahlanganyeli zingahluka kakhulu. Mayelana nalokhu, inani eliphakeme lithathwe kwelincane (imvamisa isilinganiso esisemthethweni)[abahlanganyeli_ubukhulu_iminithi], isilinganiso esiphezulu esingaba khona (ngokuvamile isilinganiso sabezindaba abazimele noma ababhikishi) [ababambiqhaza_ubuningi_ubuningi] kanye nencazelo yejiyomethri yathathwa [av_abahlanganyeli]. Yilokhu okwacatshangelwa ngokuqhubekayo
- Inani labantu bezwe ngonyaka okwaqala ngawo imibhikisho [inani labantu]
- Usuku lokukhethwa komholi omusha wezwe [umholi_okhethiwe]. Ngaqale ngasebenzisa usuku lokugcotshwa, kodwa kwavela ukuthi miningi imibhikisho eyenzeka ngisho nangaphambi kokuba umholi othile athathe izintambo.
- Usuku lokuzalwa lomkhuzi [cur_elected_dob]
- Inkomba yenkululeko yabezindaba ngonyaka okwaqala ngawo imibhikisho [press_freedom_index (PFI)]. Okuphakeme, kukhulu ukungakhululeki
- Isikhundla sezwe ohlwini lokungakhululeki kwabezindaba ngonyaka okwaqala ngawo imibhikisho [press_freedom_index_pos (PFI_pos)]
Isizukulwane sezici/izigaba ezintsha.
Isikhathi semibhikisho ngezinsuku kulula ukusibala [isikhathi], isikhathi sokubusa eminyakeni [izinsuku_kusukela_okhethweni_lokuqala], iminyaka yokubuka ngesikhathi sokuqala kokunyakaza [iminyaka_kusukela_dob], kanye nesabelo sababhikishi abavela emphakathini wezwe [isilinganiso_sombhikisho].
Asambe
I-athikili ihlinzeka ngezibalo zezibalo. Ayikho idatha eningi, kodwa miningi. Umbhali ucela ukuqonda kwakho kanye nentethelelo kusenesikhathi.
Amagrafu azoveza izigaba ezintathu kuphela zezizathu zemibhikisho (ipolitiki, ukhetho, ezomnotho) njengezithakazelisa kakhulu.
Isakhiwo sebhokisi
Isakhiwo sebhokisi, noma "ibhokisi elinamadevu," lingaboniswa ngokucacile ngalo mfanekiso:
Ubude bemibhikisho
Into yokuqala umbhali anqume ukuyicwaninga kwaba yisikhathi semibhikisho eyenzeka.
Ngokusekelwe ku-histogram, isikhathi esiyinhloko semibhikisho sithatha izinsuku ezingama-200. Okuthakaselayo ukuthi imibhikisho eyimpumelelo nengaphumelelanga ithathe isikhathi esingakanani, kuya ngembangela yokwenzeka kwayo:
Ukusatshalaliswa kwezigaba zepolitiki nokhetho kwehluka kakhulu. Ngenxa yokuthi imibhikisho yaseBelarus ibangelwa imiphumela yokhetho, ake sibhekisise leli thebula naleli grafu:
Ngokusekelwe kudatha etholakalayo, singaphetha ngokuthi "isikhathi esihle" sombhikisho ophumelelayo cishe amaviki angu-6-8. Isazi sezombangazwe cishe singaqaphela ukuthi i-False median ephansi ingenxa yokuthi eminye yemibhikisho yasheshe yaklinywa zisencane. Uma lokhu kungenziwa, iqhinga elingcono kwaba ukulinda futhi kubambezeleke umbhikisho. Umbhali uhlaziye ngokwehlukana ukuthi akekho ohlela ukhetho ekuqaleni kwehlobo (June, July).
Isimo eBelarus ngesikhathi sokushicilelwa (31.08.2020/21/3) - izinsuku ezingama-XNUMX aka XNUMX amaviki adlule kusukela kuqale imibhikisho.
Ubude besikhathi emandleni
Njengoba ungabona ku-boxplot ngenhla, uma uthatha isikhathi eside, kuba nzima nakakhulu ukuyigcina njengomphumela wokuguqulwa kombala. Ake sibhekisise kahle isimo mayelana nokhetho:
Kusuka kugrafu ungabona ukuthi ukubekezela kwabantu kucishe kube ngamatemu ama-2 futhi ama-quartiles awahambelani.
Isimo eBelarus sihlukile ngendlela yaso. Akukaze kube khona ukuguquguquka kwemibala ezweni lapho umbusi esephathe iminyaka engu-26 futhi engenela ihlandla lesi-6. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kulula kakhulu kumlobi ukucabanga umphumela we-algorithm yesihlahla sesinqumo lapho lo mbuzo ungeke ubangele izinkinga.
Iminyaka yomphathi wamandla
Le grafu ikhombisa ukuthi kuhluke kanjani ukusatshalaliswa (akumangalisi ngenani elinjalo nelinjalo ledatha). Ake sibhekisise ishadi lokhetho:
Njengakusibonelo esingenhla, ama-quartiles alawa mabhokisi amabhokisi awahlangani. Lokhu kungenzeka ukuthi kungenxa yokuthi osopolitiki abasebasha futhi abanomdlandla abangaphansi kweminyaka engama-55 banamandla engeziwe okumelana nemibhikisho engebona abelungu. Noma bewathola isikhathi esingakanani amandla futhi bemanqikanqika kangakanani ukuwayeka. Kwazi bani?
UMongameli wamanje waseBelarus uguqule iminyaka engu-66 izolo (noma namuhla?). Kulokhu, izinombolo azihambisani naye.
Inkomba (in) yenkululeko yabezindaba
Ngokusho kwabantu abahlakaniphe kakhulu kunombhali, ukuntuleka kwenkululeko yabezindaba kungaba uphawu lokuthambekela kobushiqela. I-Press Freedom Index ibalwa ngabakwaReporters Without Borders. Ukuphakama kwenkomba, isimo sibi kakhulu ngenkululeko yabezindaba, ngokusho kwale nhlangano.
Ngokusekelwe kulawa magrafu, ukuba khona kwenkululeko yabezindaba kunomphumela omubi ekugcineni amandla. Lokhu kungaqondwa, njengoba indima yabezindaba nethelevishini, nakuba ibuthakathaka, isadlala indima ebaluleke kakhulu. Cabangela isimo sokhetho:
Njengakwezimo ezedlule, ama-quartiles awazange adlulele. Ukufika kwamanethiwekhi omphakathi ahlukahlukene kusiguqule kakhulu isithombe nomthelela wemithombo yezindaba; kulokhu, kubonakala kungenzeka, kodwa kunzima, kumbhali ukubeka i-1986 ePhilippines kanye no-2020 eBelarus ngokwesigaba.
E-Belarus, inkomba yenkululeko yabezindaba ingu-49.25 ngo-2020. Leli inani elilinganiselwe kakhulu lawo wonke amasampula anikezwe kulesi sihloko. Futhi kusezindaweni zolwazi lapho izimpi eziyinhloko zenguquko yamanje zenzeka. Abanye abasebenzi ezinkampanini zethelevishini nemisakazo batelekile. I-Komsomolskaya Pravda ibhala ngemibhikisho yaseBelarus, kodwa ayikwazi ukushicilelwa ngenxa yokuphuka komshini, njll. Osomaqhinga bezombangazwe baseRussia baya eBelarus ngesimemo sikamongameli, futhi abaphikisi basebenzisa ngenkuthalo ubuchwepheshe bezenhlalakahle baseNtshonalanga. Izikali cishe zizothiphana izikhathi ezingaphezu kwesisodwa.
Isabelo sababhikishi
Mhlawumbe enye yemingcele enzima kakhulu ukubala. Kubonakala sengathi emakhonsathini e-rock noma eminye imicimbi emikhulu, abezindaba neziphathimandla balinganisela inani labahlanganyeli cishe ngokulinganayo.
Kodwa uma kuvela ulwazi mayelana nemibhikisho emazweni ahlukene, kwakheka isithombe sokuthi ibisezindaweni ezahlukene. Noma babuka ngezibonakude bevela emikhawulweni ehlukene. Ngandlela thize, idatha ibalwe ngendlela efanayo kuwo wonke umuntu, ngakho-ke kungenzeka ukuthi iyaqhathaniswa.
Amagrafu akhombisa ukuthi uma sikhulu isabelo sababhikishi, kuba nzima kakhulu ukugcina amandla. Kulindelwe. Kunalokho, izinombolo ngokwazo zinentshisekelo, okuhlanganisa nesimo esihlobene nokhetho:
Uma ubheka i-boxplot, isisindo esibucayi singu-0.5%. Kube necala elilodwa nje elilodwa, elithathwa njengeliphuma ngaphandle, lapho cishe u-1.4% weqile umgomo walo (I-Armenia, ngo-2008).
E-Belarus, okwamanje, ngokusho kwefomula ebaliwe, i-1.33% ibamba iqhaza emibhikishweni. Lesi sibalo naso asidlali ezandleni zikahulumeni okhona.
Imiphumela emnothweni
Okuzoba ngezansi ngeke kubizwe ngokuthi umnotho. Umbhali akazange athole ipharamitha engcono yokuqhathanisa, indlela yokutadisha ukuhlukahluka kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwemali kazwelonke ngokusho kweBhange Lesizwe ngokumelene nedola laseMelika. Ukuqedela lesi sithombe, isikhathi esingangonyaka sithathwe kusukela ekuqaleni kwemibhikisho kanye nonyaka ngemva kokuphela. Isikhathi sokubhikisha sigqanyiswe ngokuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka emashadini.
Imali yesizwe iyaqina uma iqhathaniswa nedola
Isimo esifanayo sabonakala izikhathi eziningana emazweni ayengaphansi kweSoviet Union. Zonke izinto ziyalingana, amaholo kuma-ruble aseMelika akhula kamuva.
Imali kazwelonke izinzile uma iqhathaniswa nedola
Izimfanelo ezizinzile zezimali zezwe nazo zaphawulwa kwezinye zezimo zemibala zoguquko lwamazwe ayengaphansi kweSoviet Union. Kulezi zimo, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwedola alizange lishintshe kakhulu.
Imali yezwe yehla uma iqhathaniswa nedola
Ngemva konyaka kuphele eminye yemibhikisho, umuntu wayebona isimo esidabukisa kakhulu mayelana nemali yezwe. Mhlawumbe izigaba ezimbili zokugcina zenkinga yezomnotho ka-2008 zaba nomthelela. Isimo ne-Algeria sisanda kwenzeka - i-dinar yendawo ishaywe yi-COVID-19.
Isimo samanje e-Belarus
Isimo eBelarus sinzima impela - ngaphambili ngesikhathi semibhikisho, kuphela ku Russia ngo-2012, izinga lehle kakhulu ngaphezu kwe-10%. Kodwa-ke, lokhu akuzange kwenzeke kusukela ezinsukwini zokuqala zemibhikisho nangesikhathi sesigaba sesi-2 sezinkinga zezimali zomhlaba. Umbhali akanalo ulwazi olubalulekile lwezomnotho futhi akafuni ukudukisa abantu ngezimbangela nemiphumela yesimo samanje.
Izinsalela ezomile
Nakuba idatha incane, iyavumelana impela, okuyizindaba ezinhle. Okunye okubhekwayo namaphethini kulula ukuwahumusha, kanti okunye kunzima kakhulu.
Isimo eBelarus siyashintsha nsuku zonke, futhi okuzokwenzeka ngokulandelayo kucacela abambalwa kuphela.
Ekugcineni, ngizokunikeza igrafu ye-t-SNE yokuguquguquka kombala. Wonke amadethi, amapharamitha angewona awezinombolo, kanye nomphumela wokuguquguquka kususiwe kudathasethi.
Ukuguquguquka okuphumelelayo kumakwa ngokuluhlaza, okungaphumelelanga ngokubomvu. I-Venezuela imakwe ngokuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, futhi isimo samanje eBelarus simpunga. Ichashazi elimnyama liphawula indawo lapho i-Belarus izoba khona emavikini angu-2, nenye idatha elungisiwe.
Lokhu kunuka kancane njengokuhlanganisa futhi ungazama ukukuhlukanisa usebenzisa izindawo zekhofi. Kulokhu, uma umaka indawo yamachashazi abomvu 'njengeqoqo' lezinguquko ezihlulekile, ungabona ukuthi endabeni yaseVenezuela ichashazi libomvu ngaphezu kohlaza, okuqinisekiswa ngumbono wamazwe ngamazwe wososayensi bezombusazwe. . I-Belarus, emele grey (okwamanje) kanye nomnyama (emavikini angu-2), ibheke ekamu labafowabo abaluhlaza.
Ungakwazi ukunaka iqiniso lokuthi eduze kweBelarus kukhona iqoqo lamachashazi aluhlaza angu-5. Okuseduzane kwethu yizinguquko zakamuva I-Armenia (2018) ΠΈ I-Algeria (2019)Futhi I-Georgia (2003). Eqoqweni elifanayo, kude kancane, kukhona uguquko I-Philippines (1986) futhi ku I-South Korea (2016).
Epilogue
Umbhali wazama ukwenza ngendlela eqondile, ngangokunokwenzeka, ukwethula isimo ngokuguqulwa kombala kumagrafu. Isimo saseBelarus asibheki ngokuvuna i-autocrat yamanje, futhi isikhathi kuphela esizosho ukuthi umbhali uqinisile yini esibikezelweni sakhe.
Uma unemibono yezigaba ezintsha noma izihloko, sibhalele futhi sizozihlola ndawonye.
βKunezinhlobo ezintathu zamanga: amanga, amanga alahlwayo kanye nezibaloβ (M. Twain)
Source: www.habr.com