Isiswebhu nomdlalo
Kulesi sihloko ngithanda ukuxoxa ngenkinga yomphumela we-bullwhip, oye wafundwa kabanzi ku-logistics, futhi futhi wethula ukunakwa kothisha nochwepheshe emkhakheni wokuphathwa kwempahla ukuguqulwa okusha komdlalo kabhiya owaziwayo ukufundisa logistics. Umdlalo kabhiya kusayensi yokuphathwa kwe-supply chain empeleni uyisihloko esibucayi emfundweni yezokuthutha nokwenza. Ichaza kahle inqubo engalawuleki yokuhlukahluka kwe-oda kanye nokuvuvukala kwe-inventory ezigabeni ezahlukene zamaketanga okuhlinzeka - lokho okubizwa ngokuthi umphumela we-bullwhip. Ngemva kokuhlangabezana nobunzima ekulingiseni umphumela we-bullwhip, nginqume ukuthuthukisa inguqulo yami eyenziwe lula yomdlalo kabhiya (ngemuva kwalokhu okubizwa ngokuthi igeyimu entsha). Ngokwazi ukuthi bangaki ochwepheshe bezokuthutha abakhona kuleli sayithi, futhi futhi uma sicabangela ukuthi ukuphawula ezindabeni ezimayelana ne-Habr kuvame ukuthakazelisa kakhulu kunezindatshana ngokwazo, ngingathanda ngempela ukuzwa ukuphawula kwabafundi mayelana nokufaneleka komphumela we-bullwhip kanye nomdlalo kabhiya.
Inkinga yangempela noma eqanjiwe?
Ngizoqala ngokuchaza umphumela we-bullwhip. Kukhona amathani ocwaningo lwesayensi kwezokuthutha oluhlole umphumela we-bullwhip njengomphumela obalulekile wokusebenzelana kozakwethu bochungechunge lokunikezela okunomthelela omkhulu wokuphatha. Umphumela we-bullwhip ukwanda kokuhlukahluka kwe-oda ezigabeni zokuqala zochungechunge lokunikezela (enhla nomfula), okungenye yetiyori eyinhloko [1] [2] kanye nemiphumela yokuhlola yomdlalo kabhiya [3]. Ngokomphumela we-bullwhip, ukuguquguquka kwesidingo kubathengi nama-oda avela kubathengisi ezigabeni zokugcina ze-supply chain (ezansi nomfula) kuhlala kuphansi kunaleyo evela kubathengisi bezitolo nabakhiqizi. Umphumela, yiqiniso, uyingozi futhi uholela ekushintsheni njalo kuma-oda nokukhiqiza. Ngokwezibalo, umphumela we-bullwhip ungachazwa njengesilinganiso sokuhluka noma ama-coefficients wokuhluka phakathi kwezigaba (ama-echelons) ochungechungeni lokunikezela:
BullwhipEffect=VARupstream/VARdownstream
Noma (kuye ngokuthi indlela yomcwaningi):
BullwhipEffect=CVupstream/CVdownstream
Umthelela we-bullwhip ufakiwe cishe kuzo zonke izincwadi ezidumile zakwamanye amazwe mayelana nokuphathwa kokuhlinzeka. Kunenani elikhulu nje locwaningo olunikelwe kulesi sihloko. Izixhumanisi ekupheleni kwesihloko zibonisa imisebenzi edume kakhulu ngalo mphumela. Ngokwethiyori, umphumela ubangelwa kakhulu ukuntuleka kolwazi mayelana nokufunwa, ukuthenga ngobuningi, ukwesaba ukushoda kwesikhathi esizayo kanye nezintengo ezikhuphukayo [1]. Ukungabaza kozakwethu bebhizinisi ukwabelana ngolwazi olunembile mayelana nesidingo samakhasimende, kanye nezikhathi ezinde zokulethwa, kukhulisa umphumela we-bullwhip [2]. Kukhona nezizathu ezingokwengqondo zomphumela, oqinisekisiwe ezimweni zaselabhorethri [3]. Ngezizathu ezisobala, kunezibonelo ezimbalwa kakhulu eziqondile zomphumela we-bullwhip—bambalwa abantu abangafuna ukwabelana ngedatha emayelana nama-oda abo kanye ne-inventories, ngisho nakuwo wonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka. Nokho, kunedlanzana elicacile labacwaningi abakholelwa ukuthi umphumela we-bullwhip uyihaba.
Ngokwethiyori, umphumela ungalungiswa ngokufaka izimpahla esikhundleni nokushintsha amakhasimende phakathi kwabahlinzeki uma kwenzeka kushoda [4]. Obunye ubufakazi obunamandla busekela umbono wokuthi umphumela we-bullwhip ungase ube nomkhawulo ezimbonini eziningi [5]. Abakhiqizi nabathengisi bavame ukusebenzisa amasu okushelela ukukhiqiza namanye amaqhinga ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi ukuhlukahluka kwe-oda lamakhasimende akudluleli kakhulu. Ngiyazibuza: siyini isimo ngomphumela we-bullwhip eRussia nasendaweni ye-post-Soviet ngokujwayelekile? Ingabe abafundi (ikakhulukazi labo abahileleke ekuhlaziyeni uhlu nasekubikezelweni kwesidingo) bawubonile umthelela onamandla kangaka empilweni yangempela? Mhlawumbe, empeleni, umbuzo womphumela we-bullwhip usekude futhi isikhathi esiningi sabacwaningi nabafundi be-logistics basichithe ngeze...
Mina ngokwami ngafunda umphumela we-bullwhip njengomfundi oneziqu futhi ngenkathi ngilungiselela iphepha ngomdlalo kabhiya engqungqutheleni. Kamuva ngalungiselela inguqulo ye-electronic yomdlalo kabhiya ukuze ngibonise umphumela we-bullwhip ekilasini. Ngizoyichaza kabanzi ngezansi.
Akuwona amathoyizi akho lawa...
Ukumodela kwespredishithi kusetshenziswa kakhulu ukuhlaziya izinkinga zebhizinisi zomhlaba wangempela. Amaspredishithi nawo ayasebenza ekuqeqesheni abaphathi bakusasa. Umthelela we-bullwhip, njengenkambu evelele ekuphathweni kwe-supply chain, unosiko olude ikakhulukazi lokusebenzisa ukulingisa kwezemfundo, lapho igeyimu yobhiya iyisibonelo esihle. I-MIT yaqala ukwethula umdlalo kabhiya wokuqala ekuqaleni kwawo-1960, futhi ngokushesha yaba ithuluzi elidumile lokuchaza amandla e-supply chain. Umdlalo uyisibonelo sakudala semodeli ye-System Dynamics, engasetshenziswa nje kuphela ngezinjongo zemfundo, kodwa futhi ekwenzeni izinqumo ezimeni zangempela zebhizinisi, kanye nokucwaninga. Ukubonakala, ukukhiqizwa kabusha, ukuphepha, ukuphumelela kwezindleko kanye nokufinyeleleka kwemidlalo yekhompiyutha ebucayi kunikeza enye indlela yokuqeqeshwa emsebenzini, ukunikeza abaphathi ithuluzi eliwusizo ekwenzeni izinqumo lapho benza izivivinyo endaweni yokufunda ephephile.
Umdlalo ubambe iqhaza elibalulekile ekulingiseni ekuthuthukiseni amasu ebhizinisi kanye nokwenza lula ukuthathwa kwezinqumo. Umdlalo kabhiya wakudala kwakuwumdlalo webhodi futhi wawudinga ukulungiswa okubalulekile ngaphambi kokudlala umdlalo ekilasini. Othisha kwakumele baqale babhekane nezindaba ezifana nemiyalelo eyinkimbinkimbi, izilungiselelo, kanye nemikhawulo yabahlanganyeli begeyimu. Izinguqulo ezalandela zomdlalo kabhiya zazama ukwenza kube lula ukuwusebenzisa ngosizo lobuchwepheshe bolwazi. Naphezu kokuthuthukiswa okuphawulekayo ngenguqulo ngayinye elandelayo, inkimbinkimbi yokusetha nokusebenzisa, ikakhulukazi kuzilungiselelo zabasebenzisi abaningi, ezimweni eziningi kuye kwavimbela igeyimu ukuthi isetshenziswe kabanzi emfundweni yebhizinisi. Ukubuyekezwa kwezinguqulo ezitholakalayo zemidlalo yokulingisa ubhiya ekuphathweni kwe-supply chain kuveza ukushoda kwamathuluzi othisha atholakala kalula namahhala emkhakheni. Emdlalweni omusha obizwa ngeSupply Chain Competition Game, bengifuna ukubhekana nale nkinga kuqala nokubalulekile. Ngokombono wokufundisa, igeyimu entsha ingachazwa njengethuluzi lokufunda elisekelwe kuzinkinga (PBL) elihlanganisa ukulingisa nokudlala indima. Kungenzeka futhi ukusebenzisa inguqulo ye-inthanethi yomdlalo omusha ku-Google AmaSpredishithi. Indlela yokufometha enemibandela kumodeli yochungechunge lokunikezwa kwespredishithi ibhekana nezinselele ezimbili ezinkulu ekusetshenzisweni kwemidlalo ebucayi: ukufinyeleleka nokusebenziseka kalula. Lo mdlalo ubutholakala ukuthi ulandwe iminyaka embalwa manje kulesi sixhumanisi esilandelayo emphakathini .
Incazelo enemininingwane ngesiNgisi ingalandwa .
Incazelo emfushane yomdlalo
Kafushane mayelana nezigaba zomdlalo.
Umsebenzisi oyedwa ophethe iseshini yegeyimu (ngemuva kwalokhu ebizwa ngokuthi uthisha) kanye nobuncane babasebenzisi abane abadlala igeyimu (ngemuva kwalokhu okuzobizwa ngokuthi abadlali) ndawonye bamele ababambiqhaza kugeyimu kabhiya. Amamodeli wegeyimu entsha eyodwa noma amabili ochungechunge lokunikezwayo, ngalinye linezigaba ezine: I-Retailer ®, I-Wholesale (W), Umsabalalisi (D) kanye Nemboni (F). Amaketango okunikezwa kwempilo yangempela ayinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, kodwa umdlalo wechungechunge lobhiya wakudala muhle ekufundeni.
Ilayisi. 1. Supply chain structure
Iseshini ngayinye yokudlala ihlanganisa izikhathi eziyi-12 eziphelele.
Ilayisi. 2. Ifomu lesinqumo lomdlali ngamunye
Amaseli ngamafomu anefomethi ekhethekile eyenza izinkambu zokufaka zibonakale noma zingabonakali kubadlali kuye ngesikhathi samanje esisebenzayo nokulandelana kwesinqumo, ukuze abadlali bakwazi ukugxila kulokho okubaluleke kakhulu ngaleso sikhathi. Uthisha angakwazi ukulawula ukuhamba komsebenzi kwegeyimu esebenzisa iphaneli yokulawula, lapho amapharamitha amakhulu nezinkomba zokusebenza zomdlali ngamunye zilandelelwa khona. Amagrafu abuyekezwa ngokushesha eshidini ngalinye akusiza ukuthi uqonde ngokushesha izinkomba zokusebenza ezibalulekile zabadlali nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Abafundisi bangakhetha ukuthi ukufunwa kwekhasimende kuyanqunywa (okuhlanganisa umugqa kanye nokungaqondile) noma i-stochastic (okuhlanganisa iyunifomu, evamile, i-lognormal, i-triangular, i-gamma, ne-exponential).
Umsebenzi owengeziwe
Igeyimu kuleli fomu isekude nokuphelela - idinga ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwegeyimu eku-inthanethi yabadlali abaningi ngendlela ezosusa isidingo sokuvuselela njalo nokulondoloza amashidi ahambisanayo ngemva kwesenzo somdlali ngamunye. Ngingathanda ukufunda futhi ngiphendule kumazwana kule mibuzo elandelayo:
a) ukuthi ingabe umphumela we-bullwhip ungokoqobo ekusebenzeni;
b) ukuthi umdlalo kabhiya ungaba usizo kangakanani ekufundiseni ukuhlelwa kwezinto nokuthi ungathuthukiswa kanjani.
izithenjwa
[1] U-Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V. kanye no-Whang, S., 1997. Ukuhlanekezelwa kolwazi kuchungechunge lokuhlinzeka: Umphumela we-bullwhip. Isayensi yokuphatha, 43 (4), pp.546-558.
[2] U-Chen, F., Drezner, Z., Ryan, J. K. kanye no-Simchi-Levi, D., 2000. Ukulinganisa umphumela we-bullwhip ochungechungeni olulula lokuhlinzeka: Umthelela wokubikezela, izikhathi zokuhola, nolwazi. Isayensi yokuphatha, 46(3), amakhasi.436-443.
[3] Sterman, J.D., 1989. Ukumodela kokuziphatha kokuphatha: Imibono eyiphutha ngempendulo ekuhlolweni kokwenza izinqumo okunamandla. Isayensi yokuphatha, 35(3), pp.321-339.
[4] Sucky, E., 2009. Umthelela we-bullwhip kumaketanga wokuhlinzeka - inkinga elinganiselwe ngokweqile? Ijenali Yamazwe Ngamazwe Yezomnotho Zokukhiqiza, i-118 (1), iphe.311-322.
[5] Cachon, G.P., Randall, T. and Schmidt, G.M., 2007. Isesha umphumela we-bullwhip. Ukuphathwa Kwemisebenzi Yokukhiqiza Nesevisi, 9(4), pp.457-479.
Source: www.habr.com