Ingabe kudingekile ukuthenga imoto ngama-ruble ayizinkulungwane ezingu-750, naphezu kokuthi ushayela izikhathi ezingu-18 ngenyanga, noma ingabe kushibhile ukusebenzisa itekisi? Uma usebenza esihlalweni esingemuva noma ulalela umculo - lokhu kushintsha kanjani ukuhlola? Iyiphi indlela engcono kakhulu yokuthenga ifulethi - kunini lapho kufanele uqedele ukonga ngediphozithi futhi wenze inkokhelo ephansi kwi-mortgage? Noma ngisho nombuzo ongasho lutho: kunenzuzo enkulu ukufaka imali ku-6% nge-capitalisation yanyanga zonke noma ku-6,2% ngemali yonyaka? Abantu abaningi abazami ngisho ukwenza izibalo ezinjalo futhi abafuni ngisho nokuqoqa ulwazi oluningiliziwe ngemali yabo. Esikhundleni sokubala, imizwa nemizwelo ixhunyiwe. Noma benza isilinganiso esincane, ngokwesibonelo, babale izindleko zonyaka zokuba nemoto ngokuningiliziwe, kuyilapho zonke lezi zindleko zingase zibe u-5% kuphela wengqikithi yezindleko (futhi imali echithwa kwezinye izici zokuphila ayibalwa). Ubuchopho bomuntu bungaphansi kokuphazamiseka kwengqondo. Isibonelo, kunzima ukuyeka, naphezu kokungakhokhi, ibhizinisi lapho kutshalwe khona isikhathi esiningi nemali. Abantu bavame ukuba nethemba ngokweqile futhi abazibukeli phansi ubungozi, kanye nokusikisela kalula futhi bangathenga i-trinket ebizayo noma batshale imali kuphiramidi yezezimali.
Yiqiniso, esimweni sebhange, ukuhlolwa kwemizwelo akusebenzi. Ngakho-ke, ngifuna ukukhuluma kuqala ngokuthi umuntu ojwayelekile uyihlola kanjani imali (kuhlanganise nami), nokuthi ibhange liyenza kanjani. Ngezansi kuzoba nohlelo lwezemfundo lwezezimali nokunye okuningi mayelana nokuhlaziywa kwedatha e-Sberbank yebhange lonke.
Iziphetho ezitholiwe zinikezwa njengesibonelo kuphela futhi azikwazi ukuthathwa njengezincomo kubatshalizimali abazimele, ngoba azinaki izici eziningi ezisele ngaphandle kobubanzi balesi sihloko.
Isibonelo, noma yimuphi umcimbi "we-black swan" ku-macroeconomics, ekubuseni kwebhizinisi kwanoma iyiphi inkampani, njll., kungaholela ezinguqukweni ezimangalisayo.
Ake sithi usuyikhokhile imali yakho yendlu futhi usuyongile. Lesi sihloko singase sibe usizo kuwe uma:
- akunandaba ukuthi ingakanani impahla osuyiqongelele nokuthi ungayilandela kanjani
- uzibuza ukuthi ungayenza kanjani impahla yakho ikulethele imali eyengeziwe
- Ngifuna ukuqonda ukuthi yiziphi izindlela zokutshala imali ezihamba phambili: izindlu, amadiphozithi noma amasheya
- ufuna ukwazi ukuthi ukuhlaziywa kwedatha ye-Sberbank kuzokweluleka ngani ngalolu daba
Ngokuvamile abantu benza izinqumo zezezimali ngaphandle kolwazi olugcwele mayelana nokuguquguquka kwemali engenayo kanye nezindleko zabo, ngaphandle kokuhlolwa kwenani lempahla yabo, ngaphandle kokucabangela ukwehla kwamandla emali, njll. ezibalweni zabo.
Kwesinye isikhathi abantu benza amaphutha, njengokuthatha imali ebolekiwe becabanga ukuthi bangayikhokha bese behluleka. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, impendulo yombuzo wokuthi umuntu uzokwazi yini ukukhokhela imali mboleko ngokuvamile eyaziwa kusengaphambili. Udinga nje ukwazi ukuthi uhola malini, uchitha malini, yiziphi izinguquko ezikhona kulezi zinkomba.
Noma, ngokwesibonelo, umuntu uthola uhlobo oluthile lomholo emsebenzini, lukhuphuka ngezikhathi ezithile, luwuveze njengokuhlolwa kokufaneleka. Kodwa empeleni, uma kuqhathaniswa nokwehla kwamandla emali, umholo walo muntu ungase wehle, futhi angase angakuqapheli lokhu uma engagcini amarekhodi emali engenayo.
Abanye abantu abakwazi ukuhlola ukuthi ikuphi ukukhetha okunenzuzo enkulu esimweni sabo samanje: ukuqasha indawo yokuhlala noma ukuthatha imali mboleko ngenani elinjalo nelinjalo.
Futhi esikhundleni sokubala ukuthi izindleko zizoba yini kulokhu nakulelo cala, ngandlela thize ukwenza imali ngezinkomba ezingezona ezezezimali ekubalweni (βNgilinganisela inzuzo yokubhaliswa kwaseMoscow kuma-ruble angu-M ngenyanga, ngilinganisela ukuthi kulula ukuhlala efulethini eliqashwe eduze sebenza kuma-ruble angama-N ngenyangaβ), abantu bagijimela ku-inthanethi ukuze baxoxisane nabaxoxisana nabo abangase babe nesimo esihlukile sezimali kanye nezinye izinto ezibalulekile ekuhloleni izinkomba ezingezona ezemali.
Ngenzelwa ukuhlela izimali ngendlela efanele. Okokuqala nje, kuhlongozwa ukuqoqa idatha elandelayo ngesimo sakho sezezimali:
- ukubalwa kwezimali kanye nokulinganisa yonke impahla ekhona
- ukubalwa kwemali engenayo nezindleko, kanye nomehluko phakathi kwemali engenayo nezindleko, i.e. Amandla okuqoqwa kwempahla
Ukubalwa kwezimali kanye nokulinganisa yonke impahla etholakalayo
Okokuqala, nasi isithombe okungenzeka singasichazanga kahle isimo sezimali sabantu. Isithombe sibonisa kuphela izingxenye zemali zendawo abantu ababonisiwe abanazo. Empeleni, phela abantu abanikela ngezipho mhlawumbe banempahla ethile ngaphandle kwezikweletu, ngenxa yalokho ibhalansi yabo yemali ingeyinhle, kodwa inani eliphelele lempahla yabo liselikhulu kunelomuntu ocelayo.
Hlola lokho onakho:
- indawo ethengiswayo
- umhlaba
- izimoto
- imali efakwa ebhange
- izibopho zekhredithi (nokususa)
- utshalomali (amasheya, amabhondi, ...)
- izindleko zebhizinisi lakho
- enye impahla
Phakathi kwempahla, umuntu angakwazi ukuphawula isabelo se-liquid, esingahoxiswa ngokushesha futhi siguqulelwe kwezinye izinhlobo. Ngokwesibonelo, indawo ohlala kuyo nezihlobo zakho ingabhekwa njengengekho emthethweni. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesikhathi eside kumadiphozithi noma amasheya angakwazi ukuhoxiswa ngaphandle kokulahlekelwa nakho kungabhekwa njengokungafaneleki. Ngokulandelayo, izindlu ezithengiswayo okungezakho kodwa ongahlali kuzo, izimoto, imali efakwa emalini yesikhathi esifushane kanye nehlehliswayo ingahlukaniswa njengempahla ewuketshezi. Isibonelo, uma udinga imali yokwelashwa okuphuthumayo, izinzuzo zamanye amathuluzi cishe zinguziro, ngakho-ke isabelo se-liquidity sibaluleke kakhulu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, phakathi kwempahla kungahlukaniswa njengengenanzuzo futhi inenzuzo. Isibonelo, izindlu ezithengiswayo ezingaqashiwe, kanye nezimoto, zingathathwa njengezingenanzuzo. Futhi izindlu eziqashiwe, amadiphozithi namasheya atshalwe ngenani elingaphezu kwamandla emali kuyimpahla enenzuzo.
Uzothola, isibonelo, isithombe esinjalo (idatha ikhiqizwa ngokungahleliwe):
Kubantu abaningi, lesi sithombe sibukeka sitshekile kakhulu. Isibonelo, ugogo ompofu angahlala efulethini elibizayo eMoscow elingalethi inzuzo, kuyilapho ehlala ephethe impesheni eya empeshenini, engacabangi ngokuhlela kabusha impahla yakhe. Kungaba ukuhlakanipha ukuthi ashintshisane ngomzukulu wakhe ukuze athole imali. Ngokuphambene, umtshali-zimali angase agxile kakhulu ekutshaleni imali emasheya kangangokuthi angabi nazo ezinye izinhlobo zempahla ngosuku lwemvula, okungaba yingozi. Ungakwazi ukudweba isithombe esinjalo sempahla yakho futhi uzibuze ukuthi akukhona yini ukuhlakanipha ukushintsha indawo ngendlela enenzuzo eyengeziwe.
Ukubalwa kwemali engenayo, izindleko kanye nokuguquguquka kokuqoqwa kwempahla
Kuphakanyiswa ukuthi uqophe njalo imali engenayo nezindleko zakho nge-elekthronikhi. Esikhathini sokubhanga nge-inthanethi, akuthathi mzamo omkhulu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imali engenayo nezindleko zingahlukaniswa ngezigaba. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuwahlanganisa ngeminyaka, umuntu angathola iziphetho mayelana nokuguquguquka kwawo. Kubalulekile ukunaka ukwehla kwamandla emali ukuze ube nombono wokuthi amanani eminyaka edlule abukeka kanjani emananini anamuhla. Wonke umuntu unobhasikidi wakhe wabathengi. Uphethiloli nokudla kwenyuka amanani ngamanani ahlukene. Kodwa ukubala i-inflation yakho siqu kunzima kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, ngephutha elithile, kungenzeka ukusebenzisa idatha ngenani elisemthethweni lokwehla kwamandla emali.
Idatha ye-inflation yanyanga zonke iyatholakala emithonjeni eminingi evulekile, kuhlanganise naleyo elayishwe echibini ledatha le-Sberbank.
Isibonelo sokubona ngeso lengqondo ukuguquguquka kwezindleko zemali engenayo (idatha ikhiqizwa ngokungahleliwe, ukuguquguquka kokwehla kwamandla emali kungokoqobo):
Ukuba nesithombe esinjalo esiphelele, ungafinyelela iziphetho mayelana nokukhula kwakho kwangempela / ukwehla kwemali engenayo kanye nokukhula kwangempela / ukuncipha kokonga, uhlaziye amandla ezindleko ngesigaba futhi wenze izinqumo zezezimali ezinolwazi.
Iyiphi indlela yokutshala imali yamahhala edlula ukwehla kwamandla emali futhi ilethe imali engenayo kakhulu?
I-Sberbank data Lake inedatha ebalulekile ngalesi sihloko:
- Dynamics yezindleko ngemitha yesikwele eMoscow
- isizindalwazi seziphakamiso zokudayiswa nokuqashwa kwezindlu ezithengiswayo eMoscow naseMoscow suburbs
- amandla esilinganiso senzalo saminyaka yonke kumadiphozithi
- ama-ruble e-inflation dynamics
- I-Dynamics ye-Moscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR)
- Izilinganiso zesitoko saseMoscow nedatha yezabelo ezikhokhiwe
Le datha izosivumela ukuthi siqhathanise imbuyiselo nezingozi zokutshala imali endaweni eqashisayo, amadiphozithi asebhange kanye nemakethe yezabelo. Singakhohlwa ukufakazela ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Kumele ngisho ngaso leso sikhathi ukuthi kulokhu okuthunyelwe sisebenza ngokukhethekile ekuhlaziyeni idatha futhi asisebenzisi noma yimiphi imibono yezomnotho. Ake sibone ukuthi idatha yethu ithini - iyiphi indlela yokugcina nokukhulisa ukonga eRussia kukhiqize imiphumela engcono kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva.
Sizochaza kafushane ukuthi idatha esetshenziswe kulesi sihloko kanye neminye imininingwane e-Sberbank iqoqwa futhi ihlaziywe. Kukhona ungqimba lwezifaniso zomthombo ezigcinwa ngefomethi ye-parquet ku-hadoop. Kokubili imithombo yangaphakathi (i-AS ehlukahlukene yebhange) kanye nemithombo yangaphandle isetshenziswa. Ama-Source replicas aqoqwa ngezindlela ezahlukene. Kunomkhiqizo wonogolantethe osuselwe kwinhlansi, futhi umkhiqizo wesibili, i-Ab Initio AIR, uya udlondlobala. Izifaniso zomthombo zilayishwa kumaqoqo e-hadoop ahlukahlukene aphethwe yi-Cloudera, futhi angaxhunywa kusukela kuqoqo elilodwa kuye kwelinye. Amaqoqo ahlukaniswa kakhulu ngamabhulokhi ebhizinisi, kukhona namaqoqo eDatha Lab. Ngokusekelwe kumakhophi omthombo, kwakhiwa amamaki edatha atholakala kubasebenzisi bebhizinisi nososayensi bedatha. Izinhlelo zokusebenza ezihlukahlukene zenhlansi, imibuzo ye-hive, izinhlelo zokusebenza zokuhlaziya idatha, nokuboniswa kwemiphumela ngefomethi yezithombe ze-SVG kusetshenziswe ukubhala lesi sihloko.
Ukuhlaziywa komlando kwemakethe yezindlu
Ukuhlaziywa kubonisa ukuthi indawo yokuhlala ngesikhathi eside ikhula ngokulingana nokwehla kwamandla emali, i.e. ngamanani angempela awanyuki futhi awanciphi. Nawa amagrafu we-dynamics yamanani entengo yendawo yokuhlala e-Moscow, ebonisa idatha yokuqala etholakalayo.
Ishadi lentengo ngama-ruble ngaphandle kokwehla kwamandla emali:
Ishadi lentengo ngama-ruble, kucatshangelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali (ngamanani esimanje):
Siyabona ukuthi ngokomlando intengo yayiguquguquka cishe ngama-ruble angu-200/sq.m. ngamanani esimanje kanye nokuntengantenga kwakuphansi kakhulu.
Imaphi amaphesenti ngonyaka ngaphezu kwe-inflation elethwa ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindaweni zokuhlala? Isivuno sincike kanjani enanini lamakamelo efulethini? Ake sihlaziye i-database ye-Sberbank yezikhangiso ezithengiswayo nokuqashwa kwamafulethi eMoscow nasezindaweni ezingaphansi kweMoscow.
Ku-database yethu, bekunenqwaba yezakhiwo zamafulethi lapho kunezikhangiso zokuthengisa amafulethi kanye nezikhangiso zokuqasha amafulethi ngasikhathi sinye, futhi inani lamakamelo ezindlini ezidayiswayo neziqashisayo ziyafana. Saqhathanisa amacala anjalo, sawahlukanisa ngezindlu kanye nenani lamakamelo efulethini. Uma bekukhona okunikezwayo okuningana eqenjini elinjalo, inani lentengo libaliwe. Uma indawo yezindlu ezithengiswayo naqashwayo ihlukile, inani lokunikezwayo lashintshwa ngokulingana ukuze izindawo zamafulethi aqhathanisiwe zihambisane. Ngenxa yalokho, iziphakamiso zafakwa ohlelweni. Umbuthano ngamunye empeleni uyifulethi elinikezwa ukuthi lithengwe futhi liqashwe ngesikhathi esifanayo. Ku-eksisi evundlile sibona izindleko zokuthola ifulethi, futhi ku-eksisi eqondile - izindleko zokuqasha indlu efanayo. Inani lamakamelo efulethini licacile kusukela kumbala wombuthano, futhi indawo enkulu yefulethi, iyanda i-radius yombuthano. Ngokucatshangelwa okunikezwayo okumba eqolo, uhlelo lwaba kanje:
Uma ususa okunikezwayo okubizayo, ungabona izintengo esigabeni somnotho ngokuningiliziwe:
Ukuhlaziywa kokuhlobana kubonisa ukuthi ubudlelwano phakathi kwezindleko zokuqasha ifulethi kanye nezindleko zokulithenga kuseduze komugqa.
Kuvele isilinganiso esilandelayo phakathi kwezindleko zokuqashwa kwamafulethi ngonyaka kanye nezindleko zokuthola indawo yokuhlala (masingakhohlwa ukuthi izindleko zonyaka ziyi-12 nyanga zonke):
Inani lamakamelo:
Isilinganiso sezindleko zokuqashwa konyaka kwefulethi nezindleko zokuthola indawo yokuhlala:
1-igumbi
5,11%
2-igumbi
4,80%
3-igumbi
4,94%
Ingqikithi
4,93%
Ithole isilinganiso sesilinganiso esingu-4,93% ngonyaka kusukela ekuqashiseni indawo engaphezulu kwamandla emali. Kuyathakazelisa futhi ukuthi amafulethi anegumbi eli-1 ashibhile anenzuzo ethe xaxa ukuqasha. Siqhathanise intengo yokunikezwayo, kuzo zombili izimo (ukuqasha nokuthenga) inenani elingaphezudlwana kancane, ngakho akukho ukulungisa okudingekayo. Kodwa-ke, kudingeka ezinye izinguquko: izindlu eziqashiwe ngezinye izikhathi zidinga ukulungiswa okungenani zibe zinhle, kuthatha isikhathi ukuthola umqashi futhi amafulethi angenalutho, ngezinye izikhathi izinkokhelo zezinsiza azifakiwe entengo yokuqasha ingxenye noma ngokugcwele, futhi lapho. futhi kungukwehla okuncane kakhulu kwamafulethi ngokuhamba kweminyaka.
Ukucabangela ukulungiswa, kusukela ekuqashiseni indawo yokuhlala, ungaba nemali engenayo efika ku-4,5% ngonyaka (ngaphezu kweqiniso lokuthi indawo ngokwayo ayinciphisi). Uma isivuno esinjalo simangalisa, i-Sberbank inezipesheli eziningi ku-DomClick.
Ukuhlaziywa komlando kwamazinga ediphozithi
Idiphozithi yama-ruble eRussia eminyakeni embalwa edlule idlule kakhulu ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali. Kodwa hhayi ngo-4,5%, njengezindlu ezithengiswayo, kodwa, ngokwesilinganiso, ngo-2%.
Eshadini elingezansi, sibona amandla okuqhathanisa amanani ediphozithi kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali.
Ngizoqaphela isikhashana lapho imali engenayo evela kumadiphozithi idlula ukwehla kwamandla emali ngandlela thize kunamandla kuneshadi elingenhla ngenxa yalezi zizathu ezilandelayo:
- Ungakwazi ukulungisa izinga kumadiphozithi agcwaliswe ngesikhathi esivumayo izinyanga ezimbalwa kusengaphambili
- Osonhlamvukazi banyanga zonke, okuyisici seminikelo eminingi efakwe kule datha emaphakathi, kwengeza inzuzo ngenxa yenzalo ehlanganisiwe
- Ngenhla kucatshangelwe amanani amabhange aphezulu ayi-10 ngokusho kolwazi oluvela eBhange LaseRussia, ngaphandle kwe-10 ephezulu ungathola amanani aphezulu kancane.
Ngokuqondene nama-deposit ngama-dollar nama-euro, ngizosho ukuthi bashaya ukwehla kwamandla emali ngamadola nama-euro, ngokulandelana, buthakathaka kune-ruble beats ruble inflation.
Ukuhlaziywa komlando kwemakethe yamasheya
Manje ake sibheke imakethe ehlukahlukene futhi eyingozi yamasheya aseRussia. Imbuyiselo ekutshalweni kwezimali ezitokisini ayilungisiwe futhi ingahluka kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, uma uhlukanisa izimpahla futhi utshale imali isikhathi eside, ungakwazi ukulandelela isilinganiso sezinga lenzalo yonyaka elibonisa impumelelo yokutshala imali kuphothifoliyo yesitoko.
Kubafundi abakude nesihloko, ngizosho amagama ambalwa mayelana nama-stock indices. E-Russia, kunenkomba ye-Moscow Exchange, ekhombisa ukuguquguquka kwenani le-ruble lephothifoliyo ehlanganisa amasheya amakhulu aseRussia angama-50. Ukwakhiwa kwenkomba kanye nesabelo samasheya enkampani ngayinye kuncike kumthamo wemisebenzi yokuhweba, umthamo webhizinisi, inani lamasheya asakazwayo. Ishadi elingezansi libonisa ukuthi inkomba ye-Moscow Exchange (okungukuthi iphothifoliyo enjalo emaphakathi) ikhule kanjani eminyakeni yamuva.
Abanikazi bezitoko eziningi bakhokha izinzuzo ngezikhathi ezithile ezingatshalwa kabusha kuzitoko ezifanayo ezikhiqize imali engenayo. Intela ikhokhwa ngezabelo ezitholiwe. I-Moscow Exchange Index ayibheki isivuno se-dividend.
Ngakho-ke, sizoba nesithakazelo kakhulu ku-Moscow Exchange Gross Total Return Index (MCFTR), ecabangela izinzuzo ezitholiwe kanye nentela edonswa kulezi zinzuzo. Ake sibonise eshadini elingezansi ukuthi le nkomba ishintshe kanjani eminyakeni yamuva. Ngaphezu kwalokho, sicabangela ukwehla kwamandla emali futhi sibone ukuthi le nkomba ikhule kanjani ngamanani esimanje:
Igrafu eluhlaza iyinani langempela lephothifoliyo emananini esimanje, uma utshala imali ku-Index yaseMoscow Exchange, phinda utshale kabusha izabelo futhi ukhokhe izintela.
Ake sibone ukuthi laliyini izinga lokukhula kwenkomba ye-MCFTR eminyakeni eyi-1,2,3,β¦,11 edlule. Labo. Ingaba yini imbuyiselo yethu uma sithenga amasheya ngokulingana nale nkomba futhi njalo sitshale kabusha izabelo ezitholwa kumasheya afanayo:
Iminyaka
ΠΠ°ΡΠ°Π»ΠΎ
I-ΠΠΎΠ½Π΅Ρ
I-MCFTR
kusenesikhathi Nge
ngokucabangela
infl.
I-MCFTR
con. Nge
ngokucabangela
infl.
Coef.
ukukhula
Ngonyaka
i-coefficient
ukukhula
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2020
3835,52
5095,54
1,328513
1,152612
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2020
3113,38
5095,54
1,636659
1,178472
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2020
3115,30
5095,54
1,635650
1,130896
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2020
2682,35
5095,54
1,899655
1,136933
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2020
2488,07
5095,54
2,047989
1,126907
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2020
2497,47
5095,54
2,040281
1,107239
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2020
2634,99
5095,54
1,933799
1,085929
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2020
3245,76
5095,54
1,569907
1,051390
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
2847,81
5095,54
1,789284
1,059907
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2020
2223,17
5095,54
2,292015
1,078318
Siyabona ukuthi, njengoba sitshale noma iyiphi inombolo yeminyaka edlule, besiyothola ukunqoba phezu kokwehla kwamandla emali ka-5-18% ngonyaka, kuye ngempumelelo yephuzu lokungena.
Masenze elinye ithebula - hhayi inzuzo njalo eminyakeni engu-N yokugcina, kodwa inzuzo ngayinye yenkathi yokugcina engu-N yonyaka owodwa:
I-ΠΠΎΠ΄
ΠΠ°ΡΠ°Π»ΠΎ
I-ΠΠΎΠ½Π΅Ρ
I-MCFTR
kusenesikhathi Nge
ngokucabangela
infl.
I-MCFTR
con. Nge
ngokucabangela
infl.
Ngonyaka
i-coefficient
ukukhula
1
30.07.2019
30.07.2020
4697,47
5095,54
1,084741
2
30.07.2018
30.07.2019
3835,52
4697,47
1,224728
3
30.07.2017
30.07.2018
3113,38
3835,52
1,231947
4
30.07.2016
30.07.2017
3115,30
3113,38
0,999384
5
30.07.2015
30.07.2016
2682,35
3115,30
1,161407
6
30.07.2014
30.07.2015
2488,07
2682,35
1,078085
7
30.07.2013
30.07.2014
2497,47
2488,07
0,996236
8
30.07.2012
30.07.2013
2634,99
2497,47
0,947810
9
30.07.2011
30.07.2012
3245,76
2634,99
0,811825
10
30.07.2010
30.07.2011
2847,81
3245,76
1,139739
11
30.07.2009
30.07.2010
2223,17
2847,81
1,280968
Siyabona ukuthi akuyona yonke iminyaka eyaphumelela, kodwa iminyaka engaphumelelanga ilandelwa iminyaka yempumelelo, "eyalungisa konke".
Manje, ukuze siqonde kangcono, ake sicaphune kule nkomba futhi sibheke isibonelo sesitoko esithile, ungaba yini umphumela uma utshale imali kulesi sitoko eminyakeni engu-15 edlule, utshale kabusha izinzuzo futhi wakhokha izintela. Ake sibone umphumela ucabangela ukwehla kwamandla emali, i.e. ngamanani amanje. Ngezansi isibonelo sesabelo esijwayelekile se-Sberbank. Igrafu eluhlaza ibonisa ukuguquguquka kwenani lephothifoliyo, ekuqaleni eyayihlanganisa ingxenye eyodwa ye-Sberbank ngamanani amanje, kucatshangelwa ukutshalwa kabusha kwezabelo. Iminyaka engu-15, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuye kwehle i-ruble izikhathi ezingu-3.014135. Isabelo se-Sberbank eminyakeni edlule sikhuphuke ngentengo kusuka kuma-ruble angama-21.861. kuze kufike kuma-ruble angama-218.15, i.e. intengo ikhuphuke izikhathi ezingu-9.978958 ngaphandle kokwehla kwamandla emali. Phakathi nale minyaka, umnikazi wesabelo esisodwa wayekhokhwa ngezikhathi ezahlukene izabelo, inetha yentela, inani lama-ruble angu-40.811613. Amanani ezabelo ezikhokhelwayo aboniswa eshadini njengezinti eziqondile ezibomvu futhi awabhekiseli eshadini ngokwalo, lapho izinzuzo kanye nokutshalwa kabusha kwazo nakho kucatshangelwa. Uma ngaso sonke isikhathi lezi zabelo zisetshenziselwa ukuthenga amasheya e-Sberbank futhi, ngakho-ke ekupheleni kwesikhathi umnikazi wesabelo usevele engenayo eyodwa, kodwa amasheya angu-1.309361. Ngokucabangela ukubuyiswa kwezabelo zezabelo kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali, iphothifoliyo yasekuqaleni ikhuphuke ngamanani ngama-4.334927 izikhathi ezingaphezu kweminyaka engu-15, i.Π΅. ikhuphuke intengo ngo-1.102721 izikhathi ngonyaka. Sekukonke, isabelo esivamile se-Sberbank silethe umnikazi isilinganiso esingu-10,27% ngonyaka ngaphezu kwamandla emali ngamunye eminyakeni engu-15 edlule:
Njengesinye isibonelo, ake sithathe isithombe esifanayo nge-dynamics yamasheya akhethwayo we-Sberbank. Isabelo esithandwayo seSberbank silethe umnikazi okwengeziwe ngokwesilinganiso, u-13,59% ngonyaka ngaphezu kokwehla kwamandla emali unyaka ngamunye kweyi-15 edlule:
Le miphumela izoba ngaphansi kancane ekusebenzeni, ngoba lapho uthenga amasheya udinga ukukhokha ikhomishini encane yokuhweba. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umphumela ungathuthukiswa ngokwengeziwe uma usebenzisa I-akhawunti Yokutshalwa Kwezimali Ngayodwa, ekuvumela ukuthi uthole ukudonswa kwentela kuhulumeni ngenani elithile elilinganiselwe. Uma ungezwanga ngalokhu, kuphakanyiswa ukuthi useshe isifinyezo esithi "IIS". Masiphinde singakhohlwa ukusho ukuthi i-IIS ingavulwa e-Sberbank.
Ngakho-ke, sike sathola ukuthi ngokomlando kunenzuzo enkulu ukutshala esitokisini kunasezindaweni ezithengiswayo kanye namadiphozithi. Okokuzijabulisa, nansi i-hit parade yamasheya aphezulu angama-20 asebehweba emakethe iminyaka engaphezu kwe-10, atholwe ngenxa yokuhlaziywa kwedatha. Kukholomu yokugcina, sibona ukuthi iphothifoliyo yamasheya ikhule kangaki ngokwesilinganiso njalo ngonyaka, kucatshangelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokutshalwa kabusha kwezinzuzo. Siyabona ukuthi amasheya amaningi adlula ukwehla kwamandla emali ngaphezu kuka-10%:
Specials
ΠΠ°ΡΠ°Π»ΠΎ
I-ΠΠΎΠ½Π΅Ρ
Coef. ukwehla kwamandla emali
Ekuqaleni intengo
Con. intengo
Ukuphakama
izinombolo
amasheya
ngezindleko
buyisela-
iziteshi
hlukanisa-
i-dendov,
izikhathi
okokugcina
okuphakathi
minyaka yonke
ukukhula, izikhathi
Lenzoloto
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1267,02
17290
2,307198
1,326066
NKNKH ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
5,99
79,18
2,319298
1,322544
I-MGTS-4ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
339,99
1980
3,188323
1,257858
I-Tatnft 3ap
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
72,77
538,8
2,037894
1,232030
I-MGTS-5ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
380,7
2275
2,487047
1,230166
I-Akron
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
809,88
5800
2,015074
1,226550
Lenzol. phezulu
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
845
5260
2,214068
1,220921
NKNKh JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
14,117
92,45
1,896548
1,208282
I-Lenerg-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
25,253
149,5
1,904568
1,196652
I-GMKNorNik
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
4970
19620
2,134809
1,162320
Surgnfgz-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
13,799
37,49
2,480427
1,136619
IRKUT-3
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
8,127
35,08
1,543182
1,135299
I-Tatnft 3ao
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
146,94
558,4
1,612350
1,125854
Novatek JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
218,5
1080,8
1,195976
1,121908
I-SevSt-AO
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
358
908,4
2,163834
1,113569
Krasesb awu
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
3,25
7,07
2,255269
1,101105
I-CHTPZ JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
55,7
209,5
1,304175
1,101088
I-Sberbank-p
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
56,85
203,33
1,368277
1,100829
I-PIK JSC
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
108,26
489,5
1,079537
1,100545
LUKOIL
30.07.2010
30.07.2020
1,872601
1720
5115
1,639864
1,100444
Manje, njengoba sesilandile idatha, sizoxazulula izinkinga ezimbalwa esihlokweni salokho okufanele ukutshala kukho, uma sikholelwa ukuthi izitayela zesikhathi eside senani lamasheya athile zizoqhubeka. Kuyacaca ukuthi akulungile ngokuphelele ukubikezela intengo yesikhathi esizayo ngokweshadi langaphambilini, kodwa sizobheka abawinile ekutshaleni imali ezikhathini ezedlule ezigabeni ezimbalwa.
Umsebenzi. Thola isitoko esihlala sidlula izindlu ezithengiswayo (CAGR 1.045 ngaphezu kokwehla kwamandla emali) inani eliphezulu lezikhathi esikhathini ngasinye kwezingu-10 zokugcina zonyaka owodwa isitoko esihweba ngaso.
Kulokhu nakule misebenzi elandelayo, sisho imodeli engenhla ngokutshalwa kabusha kwezabelo zezabelo nokubalwa kwe-inflation.
Naba abawinile kulesi sigaba ngokuya ngokuhlaziywa kwethu kwedatha. Izitokwe ezingaphezulu kwetafula zihlala zisebenza kahle unyaka nonyaka ngaphandle kokucwiliswa. Lapha Unyaka woku-1 unga-30.07.2019/30.07.2020/2-30.07.2018/30.07.2019/XNUMX, Unyaka wesi-XNUMX ngu-XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX-XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX, njll.:
Specials
inombolo
ukunqoba
ngaphezulu
ukuthengisa izindlu
cindezela-
stu
ngoba
ngemva-
izinsuku
Eminyakeni 10
Unyaka ka-1
Unyaka ka-2
Unyaka ka-3
Unyaka ka-4
Unyaka ka-5
Unyaka ka-6
Unyaka ka-7
Unyaka ka-8
Unyaka ka-9
Unyaka ka-10
I-Tatnft 3ap
8
0,8573
1,4934
1,9461
1,6092
1,0470
1,1035
1,2909
1,0705
1,0039
1,2540
I-MGTS-4ap
8
1,1020
1,0608
1,8637
1,5106
1,7244
0,9339
1,1632
0,9216
1,0655
1,6380
I-CHTPZ JSC
7
1,5532
1,2003
1,2495
1,5011
1,5453
1,2926
0,9477
0,9399
0,3081
1,3666
I-SevSt-AO
7
0,9532
1,1056
1,3463
1,1089
1,1955
2,0003
1,2501
0,6734
0,6637
1,3948
NKNKh JSC
7
1,3285
1,5916
1,0821
0,8403
1,7407
1,3632
0,8729
0,8678
1,0716
1,7910
I-MGTS-5ao
7
1,1969
1,0688
1,8572
1,3789
2,0274
0,8394
1,1685
0,8364
1,0073
1,4460
I-Gazpromneft
7
0,8119
1,3200
1,6868
1,2051
1,1751
0,9197
1,1126
0,7484
1,1131
1,0641
I-Tatnft 3ao
7
0,7933
1,0807
1,9714
1,2109
1,0728
1,1725
1,0192
0,9815
1,0783
1,1785
I-Lenerg-p
7
1,3941
1,1865
1,7697
2,4403
2,2441
0,6250
1,2045
0,7784
0,4562
1,4051
NKNKH ap
7
1,3057
2,4022
1,2896
0,8209
1,2356
1,6278
0,7508
0,8449
1,5820
2,4428
Surgnfgz-p
7
1,1897
1,0456
1,2413
0,8395
0,9643
1,4957
1,2140
1,1280
1,4013
1,0031
Siyabona ukuthi nabaholi abazange bawine izindlu ngokwenzuzo minyaka yonke. Ukweqa okuqinile ezingeni lenzuzo eminyakeni ehlukene kubonisa ukuthi uma ufuna ukuzinza, kungcono ukuhlukanisa izimpahla, futhi ngokufanelekile, ukutshala imali kunkomba.
Manje sakha futhi sixazulula inkinga enjalo ukuze sihlaziye idatha. Ingabe kuyakufanelekela ukuqagela kancane, isikhathi ngasinye uthenga isitoko ezinsukwini ezi-M ngaphambi kwedethi yokukhokha kwesabelo sezimali futhi uthengise amasheya ezinsukwini ezingu-N ngemuva kwedethi yokukhokha kwesabelo? Ingabe kungcono ukuvuna izabelo futhi "uphume esitokisini" kunokuthi "uhlale esitokisini" unyaka wonke? Ake sicabange ukuthi akukho ukulahlekelwa kwikhomishini kusukela ekuphumeni okunjalo. Futhi ukuhlaziya idatha kuzosisiza ukuthi sithole imingcele yomhubhe ongu-M no-N, oye waba nempumelelo kakhulu ngokomlando ekuvuneni izinzuzo esikhundleni sokubamba amasheya isikhathi eside.
Nansi i-anecdote yango-2008.
U-John Smith, ogxume ngefasitela lesitezi esingu-75 ku-Wall Street, ngemva kokushaya phansi, weqa amamitha angu-10, okwathi ngandlela thize kwazuza ikwindla yakhe yasekuseni.
Kunjalo nangezinzuzo: sicabanga ukuthi ekuhambeni kwemakethe eduze nedethi yokukhokha kwesabelomali, ukubonakaliswa kwemakethe okuningi kakhulu kuboniswa, i.e. ngenxa yezizathu ezingokwengqondo, imakethe ingase yehle noma ikhuphuke ngaphezu kwenani lesabelo esidingayo.
Umsebenzi. Linganisa izinga lokutholwa kwamasheya ngemva kokukhokhwa kwezabelo. Ingabe kungcono ukungena ngobusuku bangaphambi kwenkokhelo ye-dividend bese uphuma ngemuva kwesikhathi kunokuba ube umnikazi wesitoko unyaka wonke? Zingaki izinsuku ngaphambi kwenkokhelo ye-dividend okufanele ngifake isitoko futhi zingaki izinsuku ngemuva kwenkokhelo yesabelomali okufanele ngiphume kusitoko ukuze ngithole inzuzo enkulu?
Imodeli yethu ibale konke ukuhluka ebubanzini bendawo eduze nezinsuku zenkokhelo yezabelo kuwo wonke umlando. Imikhawulo elandelayo yamukelwe: M<=30, N>=20. Iqiniso liwukuthi idethi nenani lenkokhelo akwaziwa njalo kusenesikhathi kunezinsuku ezingama-30 ngaphambi kokukhokhwa kwezabelo. Futhi, izabelo azifiki ku-akhawunti ngokushesha, kodwa ngokubambezeleka. Sikholelwa ukuthi kuthatha okungenani izinsuku ezingu-20 ukuqinisekiswa ukuthola izinzuzo ku-akhawunti futhi sitshalwe kabusha. Ngale mikhawulo, imodeli ikhiqize impendulo elandelayo. Isikhathi esingcono kakhulu sokuthenga amasheya izinsuku ezingama-34 ngaphambi kosuku lokukhokha kwezabelo futhi uwathengise ezinsukwini ezingama-25 ngemuva kwedethi yokukhokha kwesabelo. Ngaphansi kwalesi simo, ukukhula okuphakathi kuka-3,11% kulesi sikhathi kutholwe, okunikeza ama-20,9% ngonyaka. Labo. ngemodeli yokutshalwa kwezimali ecatshangelwe (ngokutshalwa kabusha kwezabelo futhi kucatshangelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali), uma uthenga isabelo ezinsukwini ezingama-34 ngaphambi kosuku lokukhokha kwesabelomali bese usithengisa ezinsukwini ezingama-25 ngemuva kosuku lokukhokha kwezabelo, sizoba no-20,9% ngonyaka ngaphezu kwamandla emali. isilinganiso. Lokhu kuqinisekiswa ngokwesilinganiso kuwo wonke amacala ezinkokhelo zezabelo ezivela kusizindalwazi sethu.
Isibonelo, ngesabelo esincanyelwayo se-Sberbank, isimo esinjalo sokuphuma singanikeza ukukhula ngo-11,72% ngaphezu kwezinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ekuphumeni ngakunye ngakunye endaweni yedethi yokukhokha kwesabelomali. Lokhu kulinganiselwa ku-98,6% ngonyaka ngaphezu kwezinga lokwehla kwamandla emali. Kodwa lokhu, kunjalo, kuyisibonelo senhlanhla engahleliwe.
Specials
ukungena
Idethi yezabelo
Phuma
Coef. ukukhula
I-Sberbank-p
10.05.2019
13.06.2019
08.07.2019
1,112942978
I-Sberbank-p
23.05.2018
26.06.2018
21.07.2018
0,936437635
I-Sberbank-p
11.05.2017
14.06.2017
09.07.2017
1,017492563
I-Sberbank-p
11.05.2016
14.06.2016
09.07.2016
1,101864592
I-Sberbank-p
12.05.2015
15.06.2015
10.07.2015
0,995812419
I-Sberbank-p
14.05.2014
17.06.2014
12.07.2014
1,042997818
I-Sberbank-p
08.03.2013
11.04.2013
06.05.2013
0,997301095
I-Sberbank-p
09.03.2012
12.04.2012
07.05.2012
0,924053861
I-Sberbank-p
12.03.2011
15.04.2011
10.05.2011
1,010644958
I-Sberbank-p
13.03.2010
16.04.2010
11.05.2010
0,796937418
I-Sberbank-p
04.04.2009
08.05.2009
02.06.2009
2,893620094
I-Sberbank-p
04.04.2008
08.05.2008
02.06.2008
1,073578067
I-Sberbank-p
08.04.2007
12.05.2007
06.06.2007
0,877649005
I-Sberbank-p
25.03.2006
28.04.2006
23.05.2006
0,958642001
I-Sberbank-p
03.04.2005
07.05.2005
01.06.2005
1,059276282
I-Sberbank-p
28.03.2004
01.05.2004
26.05.2004
1,049810801
I-Sberbank-p
06.04.2003
10.05.2003
04.06.2003
1,161792898
I-Sberbank-p
02.04.2002
06.05.2002
31.05.2002
1,099316569
Ngakho-ke, ukuboniswa kwemakethe okuchazwe ngenhla kwenzeka, futhi ohlotsheni olubanzi lwezinsuku zokukhokha kwezabelo, isivuno ngokomlando besiphezulu kancane kunesokuba namasheya onyaka wonke.
Asisethe imodeli yethu umsebenzi owodwa wokuhlaziya idatha:
Umsebenzi. Thola isitoko esinethuba elivamile lemali engenayo lokuphuma phakathi nedethi yokukhokha kwesabelo. Sizohlola ukuthi zingaki izimo zokukhokhelwa kwezabelo ezikwenze kwaba nokwenzeka ukuzuza ngaphezu kuka-10% ngonyaka ngaphezu kwesilinganiso sokwehla kwamandla emali, uma ufaka isitoko ezinsukwini ezingama-34 ngaphambili futhi uphume ezinsukwini ezingama-25 ngemuva kosuku lokukhokha kwesabelo.
Sizocubungula izitoko obekukhona kuzo okungenani izehlakalo ezi-5 zokukhokha izabelo. Umphumela we-hit parade uboniswa ngezansi. Qaphela ukuthi umphumela cishe ubaluleke kakhulu kuphela ngokombono wenkinga yokuhlaziywa kwedatha, kodwa hhayi njengomhlahlandlela osebenzayo wokutshala izimali.
Specials
Inombolo
amacala okunqoba
ngaphezu kwe-10% ngonyaka
ngaphezu kwamandla emali
Inombolo
amacala
izinkokhelo
izabelo
Yabelana
amacala
ukunqoba
I-coefficient emaphakathi ukukhula
Lenzoloto
5
5
1
1,320779017
I-IDGC SZ
6
7
0,8571
1,070324870
Rollman-p
6
7
0,8571
1,029644533
Rosseti phezulu
4
5
0,8
1,279877637
Kubanenr
4
5
0,8
1,248634960
I-LSR JSC
8
10
0,8
1,085474828
I-ALROSA JSC
8
10
0,8
1,042920287
I-FGC UES JSC
6
8
0,75
1,087420610
I-NCSP JSC
10
14
0,7143
1,166690777
KuzbTK JSC
5
7
0,7143
1,029743667
Kusukela ekuhlaziyweni kwemakethe yamasheya, singafinyelela eziphethweni ezilandelayo:
- Kuqinisekisiwe ukuthi imbuyiselo yamasheya amenyezelwe ezintweni zabathengi, izinkampani zokutshalwa kwezimali kanye nabanye abathintekayo abanentshisekelo iphezulu kunediphozithi kanye nezindawo ezithengiswayo zotshalomali.
- Ukuguquguquka kwemakethe yamasheya kuphezulu kakhulu, kodwa kungenzeka ukutshala imali isikhathi eside ngokuhlukahluka okuphawulekayo kwephothifoliyo. Ngenxa yokudonswa kwentela okwengeziwe okungu-13% uma utshala imali ku-IIS, kuhle kakhulu ukuthi uzivulele imakethe yamasheya futhi lokhu kungenziwa, kuhlanganise nase-Sberbank.
- Ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kwemiphumela yezikhathi zangaphambilini, abaholi batholwe ngokwenzuzo ephezulu ezinzile kanye nenzuzo yokungena endaweni eseduze nedethi yokukhokha kwezabelo. Kodwa-ke, imiphumela ayicacile kangako futhi akufanele uqondiswe yibona kuphela ekutshaleni kwakho imali. Lezi kwakuyizibonelo zemisebenzi yokuhlaziya idatha.
Inani
Kuyasiza ukugcina irekhodi lempahla yakho, kanye nemali engenayo nezindleko. Kuyasiza ekuhlelweni kwezimali. Uma ukwazi ukonga imali, khona-ke kukhona amathuba okutshala imali ngenani elingaphezu kokwehla kwamandla emali. Ukuhlaziywa kwedatha evela echibini ledatha le-Sberbank kubonise ukuthi amadiphozithi ngonyaka abuyisela u-2%, izindlu eziqashisayo - 4,5%, namasheya aseRussia - cishe u-10% ngaphezu kwamandla emali anezingozi ezinkulu kakhulu.
Umbhali: U-Mikhail Grichik, uchwepheshe womphakathi wochwepheshe we-Sberbank SberProfi DWH/BigData.
Umphakathi wochwepheshe we-SberProfi DWH/BigData unomthwalo wemfanelo wokuthuthukisa amakhono ezindaweni ezifana ne-Hadoop ecosystem, Teradata, Oracle DB, GreenPlum, kanye namathuluzi e-BI Qlik, SAP BO, Tableau, njll.
Source: www.habr.com