Wonke umuntu uzozishayela nini izimoto zikagesi?

NgoJanuwari 11, 1914, i-New York Times yashicilela isitatimende sikaHenry Ford:

“Ngiyethemba ukuthi ngonyaka sizoqala ukukhiqiza imoto esebenza ngogesi. Angithandi ukukhuluma ngezinto ezisasele unyaka, kodwa ngifuna ukunitshela okuthile ngezinhlelo zami. Iqiniso liwukuthi mina noMnu. Edison sesisebenze iminyaka eminingana ekwakhiweni kwezimoto zikagesi ezishibhile nezisebenzayo. Zenziwa njengesivivinyo, futhi sanelisekile ukuthi indlela eya empumelelweni icacile. Inkinga ngezimoto zikagesi kuze kube manje kube wukwenza ibhethri elingasindi elikwazi ukusebenza amabanga amade ngaphandle kokulishajwa. UMnu. Edison usenesikhathi eside ehlola ibhethri elinjalo."

Kodwa kukhona okungahambanga kahle...

Thomas Edison eDetroit Electric

Le ncwadi iwukuqhubeka okunengqondo kwesihloko sami sangaphambilini "Ucwaningo lwezokuthutha lusebenza njengomthetho wokuthuthukiswa kwemboni".

lapho ipharamitha r kuthinta izinga lokukhula kwesabelo semakethe, njengoba ku-index ye-exponential - ephakeme le coefficient, ngokushesha ubuchwepheshe obusha buzonqoba imakethe, i.e. njalo ngonyaka ubuchwepheshe kufanele buthakazelise abantu abaningi ngokulula kwabo., K i-coefficient echaza amandla okukhula obuchwepheshe obusha, i.e. ngamavelu aphansi ka-K, ubuchwepheshe ngeke bukwazi ukuthwebula yonke imakethe, kodwa buzokwazi ukuzuza kuphela ingxenye yemakethe lapho izothakazelisa kakhulu kunobuchwepheshe obudlule.

Isitatimende senkinga ukuthola amapharamitha adingekayo we-logistic equation evumela ukubikezela ukuthuthuka kwemboni yezimoto zikagesi zabagibeli:

• "Unyaka we-Zero" - unyaka lapho ingxenye yezimoto ezithengiswayo emhlabeni izoba ne-motor kagesi (Р0=0,5, t = 0);
• izinga lokukhula kwesabelo semakethe (r) izimoto zikagesi.

Ake sicabangele:

• izimoto zikagesi zizosusa ngokuphelele izimoto ezinenjini evuthayo yangaphakathi (ICE) emakethe (K = 1), njengoba ngingawuboni umugqa ozovumela ukuhlukanisa imakethe yezimoto zabagibeli.

  Imakethe yezimoto ezinzima kanye nemishini ekhethekile ayizange inakwe lapho kuhlanganiswa imodeli, ngakho-ke akukabikho imakethe yezimoto zikagesi ngaphakathi kwale mboni.

• manje siphila “esikhathini esingesihle” (P(t)<0) futhi emsebenzini sizosebenzisa i-offset ehlobene “nonyaka onguziro” wesikhathi sethu (t-t0).

Izibalo zokuthengiswa kwezimoto zithathwe ku lapha.

Izibalo zokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi zithathwe ku lapha.

Izibalo ngaphambi kuka-2012 ezimotweni zikagesi ziyindlala kakhulu futhi ngeke zicatshangelwe ocwaningweni.

Ngenxa yalokho, sinedatha elandelayo:

I-Year Zero kanye nohlelo Lokusesha I-Coefficient Yokukhula Kwemakethe

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math

x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468,  64341693]) # кол-во произведенных легковых машин
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247,  1940147]) # кол-во произведенных легковых электромобилей
y = y2/y1 #доля электромобилей в общем производстве автомобилей

ymax=1 #первоначальное максимальное отклонение статистических данных от значений функции
Gmax=2025 #год для начало поиска "нулевого года"
rmax=0.35 #начальный коэффициент
k=1 #принят "1" из предпосылки, что электромобили полностью заменят легковые автомобили с ДВС
p0=0.5 # процент рынка в "нулевой год"
for j in range(10): # цикл перебора "нулевых годов"
    x0=2025+j
    r=0.35
    
    for i in range(10): # цикл перебора коэффициента в каждом "нулевом году"
            r=0.25+0.02*i
            y4=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))-y 
           # print(str(x0).ljust(20), str(r).ljust(20), max(abs(y4))) 
            if max(abs(y4))<=ymax: # поиск минимального из максимальных отклонений внутри каждого года при каждом коэффициенте r
                ymax=max(abs(y4))
                Gmax=x0
                rmax=r
print(str(Gmax).ljust(20), str(rmax).ljust(20), ymax) # вывод "нулевого года", коэффициента r и максимального из отклонений от функции

Njengomphumela wohlelo, amanani alandelayo akhethiwe:
Unyaka onguziro ngu-2028.
Isici sokukhula - 0.37

Ukuchezuka okukhulu kwedatha yezibalo kusuka kunani lomsebenzi ngu-0.005255.

Igrafu yomsebenzi osesigabeni phakathi kuka-2012 no-2019 imi kanje:

Igrafu yokugcina enesibikezelo esifika ku-2050 ibukeka kanje:

Ishadi libonisa ukunqanyulwa kwe-99% yayo yonke imakethe, i.e. ngo-2040, imoto kagesi izoshintsha ngokuphelele izimoto ngezinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi.

Uhlelo lokusebenza lwe-Graphing

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import math

x = np.linspace(2012, 2019, 8)
y1 = np.array([60936407, 63429200, 65708230, 66314155, 69464432, 70694834, 68690468,  64341693])
y2 = np.array([52605, 97507, 320713, 550297, 777495, 1227117, 2018247,  1940147])
y = y2/y1

k=1
p0=0.5

x0=2028   
r=0.37 
y1=k*p0*math.e**(r*(x-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(x-x0))-1))
#Строим график функции на отрезке между 2012 и 2019 годами
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5")
plt.grid()
ax.plot(x, y, 'o', color='tab:brown') 
ax.plot(x, y1)
#Строим график функции на отрезке между 2010 и 2050 годами
x = np.linspace(2010, 2050)
y2 = [k*p0*math.e**(r*(i-x0))/(k+p0*(math.e**(r*(i-x0))-1)) for i in x]
y3 = 0.99+0*x
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(30, 20), facecolor="#f5f5f5") 
ax.set_xlim([2010, 2050])
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
plt.grid()             
plt.plot(x, y2, x, y3)

okutholakele

Ngokulandela umqondo ofanayo njengalapho ngichaza umlando wokuthuthukiswa kwezimoto ze-ICE, ngazama ukubikezela ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yezimoto zikagesi zabagibeli ngisebenzisa idatha yezibalo etholakalayo.

Imiphumela etholakele iphakamisa ukuthi ngo-2030 ingxenye yezimoto ezidayiswa emhlabeni izobe isinenjini kagesi, kanti ngo-2040 izimoto zabagibeli ezinezinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi zizobe zingasekho.

Yiqiniso, ngemva kuka-2030, abanye abantu bazoshayela izimoto zegesi abazithenge ngaphambi kuka-2030, kodwa bazokwazi ukuthi ukuthenga kwabo okulandelayo kuzoba yimoto kagesi.
Isici sokukhula sezimoto zikagesi siphindwe izikhathi ezingu-4 kunesici sokukhula kwezimoto ezinezinjini zomlilo zangaphakathi, okubonisa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obusha buya ngokuya bungena ezimpilweni zethu, bube yingxenye evamile yokuphila kwethu kwansuku zonke (cabanga ngomakhalekhukhwini lapha).

Eminyakeni ezayo, inkinga u-Edison akakwazanga ukuyixazulula kufanele ixazululwe - ibhethri elinamandla ngokwanele elizokwandisa ububanzi phakathi kweziteshi zokushaja.

Ukwakha inethiwekhi yeziteshi zokushaja ezilingana nenethiwekhi yegalaji yegesi ekhona, kuyadingeka ukuthuthukisa amanethiwekhi kagesi akhona emadolobheni amakhulu nasemigwaqweni emikhulu.

Futhi, ukukhula kokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi kuzophazamiseka I-Jevans indida, kodwa futhi kwaphazamisa uwoyela phakathi nesidingo esiqatha samalahle.

PS
Uma u-Edison ekwazi ukuxazulula inkinga ebekwe phambi kwakhe, "iminyaka yamafutha" yayingeke iqale ...

Abasebenzisi ababhalisiwe kuphela abangabamba iqhaza kuhlolovo. Ngena ngemvume, wamukelekile.

Wonke umuntu uzozishayela nini izimoto zikagesi?

• 9,5%ngo-2030 wonke umuntu uzoshintshela ezimotweni zikagesi, hhayi uhhafu

• 20,0%ngo-2040 wonke umuntu nakanjani uzoshintshela ezimotweni zikagesi38

• 48,4%hhayi ngaphambi kuka-2050

• 22,1%imoto kagesi ayisoze yathatha indawo yemoto kaphethiloli42

Bangu-190 abasebenzisi abavotile. Abasebenzisi abangu-37 bagobile.

Source: www.habr.com