Ngicabanga ukuthi inkinga akukhona ukuthi imishini izovala indawo yabantu ezindaweni zabo zokusebenza, kuhlanganisa nezihlakaniphi, hhayi ukuthi amakhompyutha abonakala ethathele izikhali abantu abanemfundo ephakeme kanye nama-akhawunti e-Twitter. Ukuqaliswa kwe-AI akwenzeki ngokushesha, kodwa ngokuphambene nalokho, kuhamba kancane. Kungani? Ngoba lokhu kuwumjikelezo ojwayelekile wokuthuthuka komuntu, futhi asiboni nje ukuthi ukucekelwa phansi esikubonayo kusho ukwethulwa kobuchwepheshe obusha, okuthi, ngaphambi kokudala imisebenzi emisha, bucekele phansi obudala.
Ubuchwepheshe bubhubhisa izimboni eziphelelwe yisikhathi futhi budale ezintsha, lena inqubo yokudala, lokhu umjikelezo wentuthuko. Uma uzama ukwelula ubuhlungu ngokufaka ubuchwepheshe obudala enqubweni noma udale izinzuzo ezithile zobuchwepheshe obuphelelwe yisikhathi, uzomane ubambezele inqubo futhi uyenze ibe buhlungu kakhulu. Kuzokwenzeka noma kunjalo, kodwa inkinga ukuthi silawula uhlelo ngokudala imithetho ehlehlisa ngamabomu. Ngicabanga ukuthi lena inkinga enkulu kunalezi esizazi ngokucace kakhudlwana. Lokhu kuyinkinga engokwengqondo lapho abantu bezibuza ukuthi: "Ungazizwa kanjani uphephile ngenkathi usemotweni ezishayelayo?"
Ngabheka emlandweni ngathola ukuthi eminyakeni eyikhulu edlule enye yezinyunyana ezinamandla kakhulu eNew York kwakuyinyunyana yabasebenzi be-elevator, eyahlanganisa abasebenzi abayizinkulungwane ezingu-17. Ngendlela, ngaleso sikhathi kwakukhona kakade ubuchwepheshe lapho ungavele ucindezele inkinobho futhi usuqedile, kodwa abantu abazange bathembele! Kubi kakhulu ukuthi ucindezele inkinobho ngokwakho ukushayela ikheshi! Uyazi ukuthi kungani le nyunyana "yafa" futhi abantu baqala ukusebenzisa izinkinobho ngokwabo? Ngoba ngolunye usuku abasebenzi bamakheshi banquma ukuteleka. Bateleka, kwase kuthi abantu okumele bagibele phezulu e-Empire State Building bazifaka engozini ngokucindezela izinkinobho ngezabo izandla.
Khumbula lokho abakusho eminyakeni engu-20-30 edlule mayelana nezingane noma abazukulu ngesikhathi behamba ngesondo lemoto: "Kubi lokhu, bheka nje izibalo, ngoba izimoto zingenye yezimbangela ezinkulu zokufa kwabantu, bangazifaka kanjani engozini. izimpilo zabo?”
Ngakho-ke, konke lokhu kuyi-psychology emsulwa. Asinaki ukuthi bangaki abantu abashona ezingozini zezimoto, kodwa uma umuntu oyedwa ebulewe imoto ezishayelayo, umcimbi usuke uqhunyiswe ngendlela engafani. Noma iyiphi i-glitch, noma yiliphi iphutha kubuchwepheshe bezobunhloli bokwenziwa limbozwa ngokushesha emakhasini angaphambili amaphephandaba. Kodwa bheka izibalo, bheka inani lezehlakalo, futhi uzobona ukuthi lingakanani iphesenti lengqikithi yenani lezingozi. Ngakho-ke, umphakathi wesintu uyonqoba kuphela uma ungaqhubekela phambili ngaphandle kokuphazanyiswa ukwesaba okunjalo.
Olunye udaba luvela lapho sikhuluma ngezindaba ezingamanga noma i-cybersecurity, lezi yizihloko ezinepolitiki kakhulu futhi ngithola izingcingo eziningi zibuza ukuthi ngibhekana kanjani nabazondayo be-AI. Isibonelo, ngibhala ibhulogi evamile, futhi okuthunyelwe kwami okusha, okuzoshicilelwa ezinsukwini ezimbalwa, kukhuluma ngenzondo kanye neqiniso lokuthi ukusindiswa enzondweni kulele olwazini, ekufundeni. Kufanele nje siqonde ukuthi le nkinga yayikhona kudala ngaphambi kokuba zonke lezi zinto zisungulwe, ukuthi nje ukubaluleka kwayo manje kuye kwanda ngenxa ye-Inthanethi, efinyelela izigidi nezigidigidi zabantu.
Ngicabanga ukuthi empeleni kuyinto enhle uma umuntu ezama ukumisa inqubekela phambili ngokuzama ukwephula i-AI, futhi uyazi ukuthi lokho ngeke kusebenze ngoba sinoPutin nabanye abantu ababi, noma ngabe bakuphi, abasebenzisa ngokumelene nathi ubuchwepheshe bethu obakhiwe ngaphakathi. umhlaba okhululekile. Ngakho-ke ngicabanga ukuthi kufanele nje sikwamukele njengento enikeziwe.
Ingqikithi yenkinga ilele kithi kuphela, futhi izimpendulo zemibuzo zingaphakathi kwethu, ngamandla ethu kanye nokuzethemba kwethu. Ngiphikisa ngokuthi imishini ehlakaniphile ayikwazi ukusenza “siphelelwe yisikhathi.” Nokho, kumelwe kukhunjulwe ukuthi kunemingcele ethile ephathelene nokusebenzisana kwamakhompiyutha abantu, futhi ngokwezinga elikhulu lawa amahemuhemu nje aye aba khona ngaphambili. Njengenjwayelo, lawa amathuba amasha nje acekela phansi umhlaba omdala futhi adale omusha, futhi lapho siqhubekela phambili, kuzoba ngcono kakhulu.
Namuhla ifana kakhulu nokuthuthela ezweni lezinganekwane zesayensi. Indida iwukuthi uma sibheka emuva eminyakeni engu-50-60, sizobona ukuthi ngalezo zinsuku inganekwane yesayensi yayiqinisekile, kwakuyi-utopia ephelele. Kodwa-ke, kwaba khona ukuguquka kancane kancane kusuka ku-utopia kuya ku-dystopia, ngendlela yokuthi asisafuni ukuzwa lutho ngekusasa lesintu.
Lokhu akwenzekanga ngokuphazima kweso. Kunesikhathi lapho abantu benquma ukuthi ukuhlola indawo kwakuyingozi kakhulu. Lokhu kuyingozi enkulu ngempela, kodwa ake ucabange ukuthi ngo-1969, lapho abaseMelika befika enyangeni, wonke amandla ekhompiyutha e-NASA ayengaphansi kwamandla anoma iyiphi idivayisi yesimanje yekhompyutha elingana ephaketheni lakho. Lo mshini unamandla ngokuphindwe izikhathi eziyinkulungwane kune-supercomputer eyayikhona eminyakeni engu-40 edlule. Cabanga nje amandla ekhompyutha onawo ephaketheni lakho! Kodwa-ke, angiqiniseki ukuthi i-Apple iPhone 7 inamandla afanayo wekhompyutha i-Apollo 7 eyayinawo, okungukuthi, iyakwazi ukukhiqiza umphumela ofanayo.
Nokho, imishini isinikeze intuthuko enkulu emkhathini noma ekuhloleni ulwandle, futhi kufanele siqonde ukuthi amakhompyutha asinikeza ikhono lokuthatha izingozi ezinkulu.
Ngithanda ukuphetha inkulumo yami ngenothi elihle. Ingabe lesi silayidi asibonisi izithombe ezinhle? Isithombe esisekhoneni elingezansi kwesokudla asithwetshulwanga izithombe, empeleni ngahlangana ne-Terminator ngo-2003.
Wayethanda ne-chess kusukela ebuntwaneni, kodwa akazange ayifunde ngokuqondile, ngakho walahlekelwa ngokushesha kakhulu. Ngakho ngamangala kakhulu lapho ngemva kwezinyanga eziyisi-6 egijimela umbusi waseCalifornia futhi wawina!
Kungani ngibiza lezi zithombe ezinhle? Ngoba nakuba kuzo zonke iziqephu ngaphandle kwesokuqala, u-Arnold omdala uhlala emi ngasohlangothini lwabaphumelele futhi akakhathali ukulwa nemishini emisha, kusiqephu sokuqala lapho sibona khona inhlanganisela ebengikhuluma ngayo - yilapho umuntu kanye nomshini omdala kanye nesixhumi esibonakalayo esiphelele sihlula imoto entsha.
Ungase uthi: “yebo, imishini inamandla kunabantu ngoba ikwazi ukubala yonke into!” Nokho, iphuzu alikona ukuthi bangakwazi ukubala yonke into. Isibonelo, ku-chess singakhuluma ngokobuchwepheshe mayelana nokungapheli kwezibalo kwenani lokunyakaza okungenzeka, okulingana no-1045, okungekho nzima kunoma iyiphi ikhompyutha yesimanje ukubala. Kodwa-ke, okubalulekile emdlalweni akuzona izibalo, kodwa iqiniso lokuthi ikhompiyutha ingaphambi komuntu, ngoba ihlale iqondiswa imithetho. Futhi uyawazi umthelela wale mithetho futhi uyazi ukuthi kungani ikhompuyutha ikhetha ukunyakaza okuhle kakhulu kusuka ezinhlobonhlobo ezinkulu zokuhamba okungenzeka.
Kodwa uma siphendukela ekuphileni kwangempela, angiqiniseki ukuthi ikhompuyutha ingahlala iwusizo. Ake sibheke isimo esijwayelekile kakhulu - unekhompyutha eqapha isabelomali sakho, usesitolo futhi usuzothenga isipho esibizayo. Ikhompiyutha ihlola ukuthengwa bese ithi, “cha, awukwazi ukukukhokhela le nto ngoba uzobe usungaphezu kwesabelomali sakho.” Umshini ubale konke, kodwa kukhona i-nuance encane - ingane yakho imi eduze kwakho, futhi lesi sipho senzelwe usuku lwakhe lokuzalwa. Uyabona ukuthi lokhu kuzishintsha kanjani izimo zenkinga? Lokhu kushintsha yonke into ngoba ingane isilinde lesi sipho.
Ngingaqala ukwengeza lezi zinto ezincane ezishintsha yonke into, kodwa angicabangi ukuthi zingafakwa esitatimendeni senkinga futhi ngithole isisombululo esifanele. Sinemithetho eminingi, kodwa kusafanele sibuze imibuzo ngoba izinto ziyashintsha. Yilokhu okungabizwa ngokuthi isimo esivamile, kodwa uma ubheka lawa mafilimu, ungasho ukuthi isimo esiboniswe lapha sikhulu kakhulu futhi asivamile. Lesi silayidi sibonisa okumile okuvela kusiqephu V se-Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back.
U-Han Solo ushayela umkhumbi umkhumbi uqonde ngqo endaweni esemkhathini, futhi i-C-3PO iyatatazela, ibika ukuthi ithuba lokusinda kule nkambu ngu-1:3122. U-Han Solo uthi kuye, "Ungalokothi ungitshele ukuthi yini amathuba ethu!" Lapha kuphakama umbuzo, ngubani olungile kakhulu kulesi simo?
Ubuchwepheshe obumelwe yi-C-3PO bulungile impela, ngoba ithuba lokusinda livame ukuba ziro. Kungenzeka ukuthi, ngokombono werobhothi, ukuthunjwa amabutho akwa-Imperial kuyisinqumo esingcono umuntu angeke aze asicabange kunokufela ensimini ye-asteroid. Kodwa uma ikhompuyutha inquma ukuthi ukuzinikela embusweni yiyona ndlela engcono kakhulu, khona-ke singacabanga ukuthi umuntu akanakho nhlobo ongakhetha kukho. Okubaluleke kakhulu ukuthi kuzo zombili izimo, ezijwayelekile nezingajwayelekile, sinethuba lokuthatha isinqumo sokugcina, futhi ukwenza isinqumo esinjalo kusadinga ubuholi bomuntu.
Kwesinye isikhathi lokhu kusho ukuthi kufanele uphambane nezincomo zekhompuyutha. Iphuzu lobuholi bomuntu alikona ukwazi izingqinamba, kodwa ukubuza imibuzo ebaluleke ngempela, hhayi nje namuhla noma kusasa, kodwa kude nekusasa. Le nqubo ingabizwa ngokuthi "isiqondiso somuntu" noma "ukungenelela komuntu", okuthonya ngaphandle kosizo lwemishini ehlakaniphile. Yilokhu okufanele inkambo yethu ibe yiyo kuleli khulu leminyaka.
Abantu kwesinye isikhathi bayamangala ngethemba lami ngemishini ehlakaniphile, uma nginikezwe ulwazi enginalo ngayo, kodwa ngingumuntu onethemba lokuhle. Futhi nginesiqiniseko sokuthi nonke ninethemba elilinganayo ngekusasa le-AI. Kodwa kufanele sikhumbule ukuthi ubuchwepheshe bethu buyi-agnostic. Alihle futhi alibi, kodwa lingasetshenziswa kokubili kokuhle nokubi. Imishini kufanele ihlakaniphe futhi ibe nekhono ngokwengeziwe. Futhi thina bantu kufanele senze lokho okungenziwa abantu kuphela - ukuphupha, ukuphupha ngokugcwele, bese sizokwazi ukukhipha zonke izinzuzo ezilethwa la mathuluzi amasha amangalisayo.
Njengoba kuhleliwe, sisenemizuzu eyi-10 yokuphendula imibuzo.
Umbuzo: Ingabe ucabanga ukuthi kungakwazi ukudala isistimu yokufunda yomshini enganquma ukuthi yikuphi ukunyakaza okuhambisana kakhulu nesitayela sokudlala somuntu?
I-Kasparov: Okokuqala, asilindele ukuthi ikhompuyutha isitshele umnyakazo wokuqala kanye nokunyakaza okungu-17505 okusele. Ngicabanga ukuthi kufanele sithembele emshinini ukuze sinikeze izincomo ezihamba phambili zokunyakaza okuyingqayizivele. Ngendlela, abadlali bezinga eliphezulu basebenzisa amakhompuyutha njengomhlahlandlela, okubasiza ukuthi bathathe indawo efaneleke kakhulu emdlalweni. Ngiyaphinda futhi - ezimweni eziyi-9 kweziyi-10, ukuhlolwa kwekhompuyutha kwesimo kuphakeme kakhulu kunokuhlola umuntu angakwenza.
Umbuzo: Ingabe uyavuma ukuthi ukuhlakanipha kwangempela kudinga inkululeko yokuzikhethela, inkululeko yokwenza izinqumo ezingenziwa umuntu kuphela? Phela i-software ye-Deep Blue nezinye izinhlelo zekhompyutha zibhalwa abantu, futhi uma ulahlekelwa ku-Deep Blue, awulahlekelwa yikhompyutha, kodwa kubahleli ababhala uhlelo. Umbuzo wami uthi: ingabe ikhona ingozi kunoma yiluphi uhlobo lobuhlakani bomshini inqobo nje uma amakhompyutha enenkululeko yokuzikhethela?
Kasparov: lapha kufanele ngisuke kwisayensi ngiye kufilosofi. Konke kucacile nge-Deep Blue - kuwumphumela wesamba esikhulu somsebenzi womuntu. Ezimweni eziningi, ngisho nasendabeni ye-AlphaGo kaDemis Hassabis, yonke le yimikhiqizo yobuhlakani bomuntu. Angazi noma imishini ingaba nenkululeko yokuzikhethela, kodwa ngikholelwa ukuthi noma yini esiyenzayo, uma sazi ukuthi yenziwe kanjani, imishini izokwenza kangcono. Nokho, lapho senza izinto eziningi, asazi ukuthi singazenza kanjani ngendlela engcono kakhulu, ngakho ngokuvamile asikwazi ukuqonda ukuthi yini esiyophumelela. Kalula nje, sinomgomo, kodwa asazi ukuthi kuyini, futhi indima yomshini ukusisiza ukuba siwuqonde lowo mgomo. Ngakho-ke, uma sikhuluma ngokukhetha kwamahhala kwamakhompiyutha, kufanele kusisize ukusibophezela kulo mgomo. Ngicabanga ukuthi leli yikusasa elikude kakhulu lamakhompyutha.
Umbuzo: Ucabangani ngezici zomuntu ezifana nesibindi nokuziphatha, kanye nezinqumo ezingathathwa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa ngokusekelwe kuzo? Isibonelo, yini okufanele yenze imoto ezishayelayo - igibele ingane noma igweme ukuyishayisa ngokuphahlazeka etsheni futhi ibulale umgibeli wayo?
I-Kasparov: Yilokhu abantu abakubiza ngokuthi "imizwa", azikwazi ukulinganiswa ngoba ziyinqwaba yezici ezihlukahlukene zomuntu. Uma sikhuluma ngesibindi, lesi sici sihlala siphikisana namathuba okukhetha inketho efanele. Ubuqhawe, njengeminye imizwa yomuntu, ngokwencazelo buphambene nokubala okunembile.
Umbuzo: Mnu. Kasparov, umbuzo wami awuthinti amakhompiyutha: yini engaphakathi kweflask yakho futhi ngingayizama?
Kasparov: usho ukuthini?
Umphathi: Ubuza ukuthi yini ephaketheni lakho!
Kasparov: ephaketheni lami? "Stolichnaya"! Akusona isikhangiso lesi, uma usibonile, ngisilahlile.
Umbuzo: Ucabanga ukuthi ubani ozoba ngumpetha womhlaba olandelayo we-chess futhi ingabe umdlali wechess osemncane waseShayina u-Wei Yi unethuba lokususa uCarelsen njengenkosi yechess?
U-Kasparov: U-Karelsen ungumdlali wenombolo 1, akayena umpetha womhlaba, kodwa umane nje ungumdlali we-chess ongcono kakhulu emhlabeni ngokwesilinganiso. Uhlanganisa iminyaka engu-27 kulo nyaka, ngakho-ke usemncane, kodwa akasemncane ngokwezindinganiso zanamuhla. Ngicabanga ukuthi u-Wei Yi uneminyaka engu-18 noma engu-19 manje. UMagnus uphambi kwabadlali abasebancane abanjengoWesley So waseMelika noFabiano Kerouana, kanti uWei Yi kungenzeka abe yimbangi yakhe. Kodwa-ke, ukuze ube ngumpetha womhlaba, udinga ithalente, akudingeki ukuthi ube mncane futhi ube namandla, ube nenhlanhla encane nje. Ngakho-ke, ukuphendula umbuzo, ngingasho - yebo, unethuba lokushaya uMagnus Carelsen.
Umbuzo: Uma ukhuluma ngama-algorithms wokunquma nokufunda komshini, ukhulume ngamathuba okusebenzisa imishini njengamathuluzi ukugcwalisa ubuhlakani bethu. Kuthiwani ngamathuba okukhulisa izinsiza ngaphambi kokudala i-AI enamandla, noma ngisho nokufaka ubuchopho bomuntu ekhompyutheni?
Kasparov: Anginamahloni ukuvuma ukungazi kwami lapho ngingaqiniseki ukuthi angikwazi ukuphendula umbuzo ngendlela efanele. Ngizama ngakho konke okusemandleni ami ukuqonda ukuthi buyini ubuchopho bomuntu, uma sibucabangela ngokwehlukana nomzimba womuntu, ukuthi busebenza kanjani. Ngoba kunzima ukucabanga ukuthi ubuchopho buzoziphatha kanjani ngokuhlukana nomzimba. Mhlawumbe ukuhlola okunjalo kungenziwa esikhathini esizayo, kodwa ngiyaqiniseka ukuthi ukuhlanganiswa kobuchopho bomuntu, imizwa yomuntu kanye nemizwelo ngekhompyutha kuzokwakha "ingqondo" ezoba nempumelelo kakhulu kunobuchopho obukhishwe futhi buqandisiwe, obusetshenzisiwe. njengedivaysi egcwele ama-neurons.
Umbuzo: Ingabe ikhona indlela eyisisekelo yomhlaba wonke enkingeni yokushintsha imisebenzi yabantu ngamakhompyutha?
UKasparov: Ngicabanga ukuthi lo ngumbuzo obaluleke kakhulu, ngoba kusobala ukuthi sisondela lapho abantu abaningi bengase bangasebenzi. Lokhu kuyindida yenqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe: ngakolunye uhlangothi, sinobuchwepheshe bakamuva obunikeza izinzuzo ezinkulu zokuncintisana esizukulwaneni esisha esibhekana nalawa madivayisi nobuchwepheshe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sinenqubekelaphambili kwezokwelapha nokudla okunempilo, okwelula impilo yomuntu futhi kunikeza umuntu amandla okusebenza iminyaka eminingi. Ngalo mqondo, isizukulwane sama-50s, 60s noma ngisho nama-40s asikwazi ukuncintisana nentsha yanamuhla. Kufanele sithole isixazululo kulesi simo esiyindida lapho igebe phakathi kwezizukulwane libanzi kangaka. Okuhlangenwe nakho komlando uthi igebe elinjalo lihlala liholela ekuqhumeni okukhulu. Ngisho igebe phakathi kwengqalasizinda yomphakathi ekhona kanye nenqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe.
Lolu wudaba osopolitiki abancamela ukuluhlehlisa kuze kufike ukhetho oluzayo. Akekho ofuna ukukhuluma ngayo ngoba ibucayi. Kulula kakhulu ukuphrinta imali futhi uthemba ukuthi othile uzoyikhokhela ngolunye usuku esikhathini esizayo. Ngakho-ke kunezingxabano eziningi kule ndawo, isibonelo, ukuqoqwa kwezikweletu zokunikeza iziqinisekiso zenhlalo esizukulwaneni esidala ngokulindela ukuthi umthwalo wokukhokha lezi zikweletu uzowela emahlombe esizukulwane esisha. Miningi imibuzo engingenazo izimpendulo zayo, kanye nemibuzo eminingi engingayibuza engithemba ukuthi i-AI ingangisiza ngayo.
Kubi kakhulu ukuthi sekungamashumi eminyaka osopolitiki bezama ukungazinaki izinkinga esisanda kuxoxa ngazo. Bahlale bekulungele ukwenza izitatimende, bahlale benezinhlelo, kodwa abafuni ukuqonda ukuphikisana kokuthula mayelana nenkinga yokungqubuzana phakathi kobuchwepheshe nomphakathi. Ngiyabonga ukulalela kwenu!
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Source: www.habr.com