Ngiqoqa yonke imibhalo ebaluleke kakhulu yazo zonke izikhathi kanye nabantu abathonya umbono wezwe kanye nokwakhiwa kwesithombe somhlaba (). Ngabe sengicabanga futhi ngacabanga futhi ngabeka umbono oqinile wokuthi lo mbhalo uguquguquka kakhulu futhi ubalulekile ekuqondeni kwethu ukwakheka komhlaba kunenguquko kaCopernican kanye nemisebenzi yaseKant. Ku-RuNet, lo mbhalo (inguqulo egcwele) wawusesimweni esibi, ngawuhlanza kancane futhi, ngemvume yomhumushi, ngiyawushicilela ukuze kuxoxwe ngawo.
“Ingabe uhlala ekulingiseni ikhompyutha?”
nguNick Bostrom [Ishicilelwe ku-Philosophical Quarterly (2003) Umq. 53, No. 211, amakhasi. 243-255. (Inguqulo yokuqala: 2001)]
Lesi sihloko sithi okungenani okukodwa kwalokhu kuqagela okulandelayo kuyiqiniso:
- (1) kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi isintu izoshabalala ngaphambi kokufinyelela esigabeni "somuntu";
- (2) yonke impucuko yangemva komuntu ngokwedlulele amathuba aphansi izosebenzisa inani elibalulekile lokulingiswa komlando wayo wokuziphendukela kwemvelo (noma ukuhluka kwakho) kanye
- (3) cishe siqinisekile ukuhlala ekufanisweni kwekhompyutha.
Kulandela kulokhu ukuthi amathuba okuba sesigabeni sempucuko yangemva komuntu, ezokwazi ukwenza ukulingisa kwabanduleleyo, ayiziro, ngaphandle uma samukela njengeqiniso icala lokuthi sesivele siphila ekufanisweni. Kubuye kuxoxwe ngeminye imithelela yalo mphumela.
1. Isingeniso
Izincwadi eziningi zezinganekwane zesayensi, kanye nezibikezelo zezazi zekusasa kanye nabacwaningi bezobuchwepheshe, zibikezela ukuthi amandla amakhulu ekhompyutha azotholakala esikhathini esizayo. Ake sicabange ukuthi lezi zibikezelo zilungile. Isibonelo, izizukulwane ezilandelayo ezinamakhompuyutha azo anamandla amakhulu zizokwazi ukwenza ukulingisa okuningiliziwe kwabazanduleli bazo noma abantu abafana nabangaphambi kwabo. Ngenxa yokuthi amakhompiyutha abo azoba namandla kakhulu, azokwazi ukusebenzisa izilinganiso eziningi ezifanayo. Ake sicabange ukuthi laba bantu abalingiswayo bayaqaphela (futhi bayoba khona uma ukulingisa kunembe kakhulu futhi uma umqondo othile owamukelwa kabanzi wokuqaphela kufilosofi ulungile). Lokhu kulandela ukuthi inombolo enkulu yezingqondo efana neyethu ayilona ezohlanga lwangempela, kodwa kunalokho ingeyabantu abalingiswa inzalo ephakeme yohlanga lokuqala. Ngokusekelwe kulokhu, kungaphikiswana ngokuthi kunengqondo ukulindela ukuthi siphakathi kwezingqondo zebhayoloji ezilingisayo, kunezokuqala, zemvelo. Ngakho-ke, ngaphandle uma sikholelwa ukuthi manje siphila ekufanisweni kwekhompiyutha, akufanele sicabange ukuthi inzalo yethu izosebenzisa ukulinganisa okuningi kokhokho babo. Lona umqondo oyinhloko. Sizobheka lokhu ngokuningiliziwe engxenyeni esele yaleli phepha.
Ngaphezu kwentshisekelo le thesis engaba nayo kulabo ababambe iqhaza ezingxoxweni zekusasa, kuphinde kube nentshisekelo yethiyori. Lobu bufakazi bukhuthaza ukwakheka kwezinye izinkinga zemethodical kanye ne-metaphysical, futhi bunikeza ezinye izifaniso zemvelo emiqondweni yenkolo yendabuko, futhi lezi zifaniso zingase zibonakale zimangaza noma zisikisela.
Isakhiwo salesi sihloko silandelayo: ekuqaleni sizokwakha umcabango othize okudingeka siwungenise kusuka kufilosofi yengqondo ukuze lobu bufakazi busebenze. Sizobe sesibheka izizathu ezithile eziqinile zokukholelwa ukuthi ukusebenzisa uxhaxha olukhulu lokulingisa imiqondo yomuntu kuzokwenzeka empucukweni yesikhathi esizayo ezothuthukisa ubuchwepheshe obuningi obufanayo obuboniswe ukuthi buhambisana nemithetho yemvelo eyaziwayo kanye nemikhawulo yobunjiniyela.
Le ngxenye ayidingekile ngokombono wefilosofi, kodwa nokho ikhuthaza ukunaka umqondo oyinhloko we-athikili. Lokhu kuzolandelwa isifinyezo sobufakazi, kusetshenziswa ezinye izinto ezilula zethiyori yamathuba, kanye nesigaba esithethelela umgomo wokulingana obuthakathaka osetshenziswa ubufakazi. Okokugcina, sizoxoxa ngezincazelo ezithile zendlela ehlukile okukhulunywe ngayo ekuqaleni, futhi lokhu kuzoba isiphetho sobufakazi mayelana nenkinga yokulingisa.
2. Ukucatshangwa kokuzimela kwabezindaba
Umcabango ovamile kufilosofi yengqondo ukucabangela ukuzimela okumaphakathi. Umqondo uwukuthi izimo zengqondo zingenzeka kunoma yisiphi isigaba esibanzi semidiya yomzimba. Kuncike ekutheni isistimu ihlanganisa isethi elungile yezakhiwo nezinqubo zekhompiyutha, ulwazi oluqaphelekayo lungenzeka ngaphakathi kwalo. Impahla ebalulekile ayikona ukuvezwa kwezinqubo ze-intracranial kumanethiwekhi emizwa yebhayoloji asuselwa kukhabhoni: ama-silicon-based processors ngaphakathi kwamakhompyutha angenza iqhinga elifanayo ncamashi. Izingxabano zale thesis sezithuthukisiwe ezincwadini ezikhona, futhi nakuba zingavumelani ngokuphelele, sizokuthatha kalula lapha.
Ubufakazi esibunikezayo lapha, nokho, abuncikile kunoma iyiphi inguqulo enamandla kakhulu yokusebenza noma i-computationalism. Isibonelo, akufanele samukele ukuthi i-thesis yokuzimela okumaphakathi iyiqiniso ngempela (ngomqondo wokuhlaziya noma we-metaphysical) - kodwa lokho kuphela, eqinisweni, ikhompuyutha engaphansi kolawulo lohlelo olufanele ingaba nolwazi . Ngaphezu kwalokho, akufanele sicabange ukuthi ukuze sidale ukwazi kukhompyutha, kuzodingeka siyihlele ngendlela yokuthi iziphathe njengomuntu kuzo zonke izimo, iphumelele ukuhlolwa kwe-Turing, njll. Sidinga kuphela ukucabangela okubuthakathaka. ukuthi ukudala okuhlangenwe nakho okuphathekayo, kwanele ukuthi izinqubo zokubala ebuchosheni bomuntu zikopishwe ngokwesakhiwo ngemininingwane efanele yokunemba okuphezulu, isibonelo, ezingeni lama-synapses ngamanye. Le nguqulo ecolisisiwe yokuzimela kwemidiya yamukelwa kabanzi.
Ama-neurotransmitters, izici zokukhula kwezinzwa, namanye amakhemikhali amancane kunama-synapse adlala indima ngokucacile ekuqondeni nasekufundeni komuntu. Ithesis yokuzimela kwemoto ayikona ukuthi imiphumela yalawa makhemikhali mincane noma ayinaki, kodwa ithinta umuzwa wokuziphendulela kuphela ngemiphumela eqondile noma engaqondile emsebenzini wokubala. Isibonelo, uma ungekho umehluko ophathekayo ngaphandle kokuthi kube khona umehluko ekukhishweni kwe-synaptic, imininingwane edingekayo yokulingisa isezingeni le-synaptic (noma ngaphezulu).
3.Imikhawulo yezobuchwepheshe yekhompyutha
Ezingeni lamanje lokuthuthuka kobuchwepheshe, asinakho ihadiwe enamandla anele noma isofthiwe eyanele yokwakha izingqondo ezinengqondo kukhompuyutha. Nokho, kuye kwenziwa izimpikiswano eziqinile zokuthi uma intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe iqhubeka ngokunganqamuki, khona-ke le mikhawulo iyogcina inqotshiwe. Abanye ababhali baphikisa ngokuthi lesi sigaba sizokwenzeka emashumini ambalwa eminyaka nje. Nokho, ngezinjongo zengxoxo yethu, akukho ukuqagela mayelana nesilinganiso sesikhathi esidingekayo. Ubufakazi bokulingiswa busebenza kahle kulabo abakholelwa ukuthi kuzothatha amakhulu ezinkulungwane zeminyaka ukufinyelela esigabeni sentuthuko "emva kobuntu", lapho isintu sizobe sesizuze iningi lamakhono ezobuchwepheshe manje angaboniswa ukuthi ayahambisana. ngemithetho yemvelo kanye nemithetho yezinto ezibonakalayo kanye nemikhawulo yamandla.
Lesi sigaba esivuthiwe sokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe sizokwenza kube nokwenzeka ukushintsha amaplanethi nezinye izinsiza zezinkanyezi zibe amakhompyutha anamandla amakhulu. Njengamanje, kunzima ukuqiniseka nganoma yimiphi imingcele emandleni ekhompyutha azotholakala ezimpucukweni zangemva kobuntu. Njengoba singakabi nayo “inkolelo-mbono yazo zonke izinto,” asikwazi ukukubekela eceleni ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi izenzakalo ezintsha zomzimba, ezenqatshelwe izinkolelo-mbono zamanje, zingasetshenziswa ukuze sinqobe imingcele, ngokusho kokuqonda kwethu kwamanje, ebeka imingcele yethiyori olwazini. ukucubungula ngaphakathi kwalolu cezu lwendaba. Ngokuzethemba okukhulu kakhulu, singabeka imingcele ephansi yokubala kwangemva komuntu, sithatha kuphela lezo zindlela eseziqondwa kakade. Isibonelo, u-Eric Drexler udwebe idizayini yesistimu elingana nekhiyubhu likashukela (kususwe ukupholisa kanye nokunikezwa kwamandla) engenza imisebenzi engu-1021 ngomzuzwana. Omunye umbhali unikeze isilinganiso esinzima sokusebenza okungu-1042 ngomzuzwana wekhompuyutha elingana neplanethi. (Uma sifunda ukwakha amakhompiyutha e-quantum, noma sifunda ukwakha amakhompiyutha nge-nuclear matter noma i-plasma, singasondela nakakhulu emikhawulweni yethiyori. USeth Lloyd ubale umkhawulo ophezulu wekhompiyutha engu-1 kg ukuze ube ngu-5 * 1050 ukusebenza okunengqondo ngomzuzwana. kwenziwa ku-1031 bit. Nokho, ngokwezinjongo zethu kwanele ukusebenzisa izilinganiso ezilandelanayo, okusho kuphela izimiso zokusebenza ezaziwa njengamanje.)
Inani lamandla ekhompyutha adingekayo ukuze kulingise ingqondo yomuntu lingalinganiselwa ngendlela efanayo ncamashi. Ukulinganisa okukodwa, okusekelwe ekutheni kungaba kubiza kangakanani ngekhompyutha ukukopisha ukusebenza kocezu lwezicubu zemizwa esesivele sikuqonda futhi ukusebenza kwalo osekukopishwe kakade ku-silicon (okungukuthi, uhlelo lokuthuthukisa umehluko ku-retina lwakopishwa), lunikeza isilinganiso sokusebenza okungaba ngu-1014 ngomzuzwana. Esinye isilinganiso, esisekelwe enanini lama-synapses ebuchosheni kanye nemvamisa yokudubula kwawo, kunikeza inani lemisebenzi engu-1016-1017 ngomzuzwana. Ngokufanelekile, amandla ekhompiyutha engeziwe angase adingeke uma sifuna ukulingisa ngokuningiliziwe ukusebenza kwangaphakathi kwama-synapse namagatsha e-dendritic. Kodwa-ke, kungenzeka ukuthi isimiso sezinzwa esimaphakathi somuntu sinenani elithile lokuphindaphindeka ezingeni elincane ukuze kunxeshezelwe ukungathembeki nomsindo wezingxenye zayo ze-neural. Ngakho-ke, umuntu angalindela izinzuzo ezisebenza kahle kakhulu lapho esebenzisa amaphrosesa angewona awebhayoloji athembekile futhi aguquguqukayo.
Inkumbulo ayiwona umkhawulo kunamandla okucubungula. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba ukugeleza okuphezulu kwedatha yezinzwa zomuntu kuku-oda lamabhithi ayi-108 ngomzuzwana, ukulingisa zonke izehlakalo zezinzwa kuzodinga izindleko ezinganakwa uma kuqhathaniswa nokulingisa umsebenzi we-cortical. Ngakho-ke, singasebenzisa amandla okucubungula adingekayo ukuze silingise isimiso sezinzwa esimaphakathi njengesilinganiso sezindleko zokubala eziphelele zokulingisa ingqondo yomuntu.
Uma imvelo ifakiwe ekufanisweni, izodinga amandla engeziwe ekhompiyutha - inani elincike kusayizi kanye nemininingwane yokufanisa. Ukulingisa indawo yonke ngokunemba kwe-quantum ngokusobala akunakwenzeka ngaphandle uma kutholwa i-physics entsha. Kodwa ukuze kuzuzwe ukulingisa okungokoqobo kokuhlangenwe nakho komuntu, kuncane kakhulu okudingekayo—okwanele ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi abantu abalingisi abasebenzisa izindlela zomuntu ezivamile ngendawo elingisayo ngeke baphawule noma yimuphi umehluko. Isakhiwo se-microscopic yengaphakathi lomhlaba singashiywa kalula. Izinto ezikude zezinkanyezi zingaba ngaphansi kwamazinga aphezulu kakhulu okucindezelwa: ukufana okunembile kudinga kuphela ngaphakathi kwebanga elincane lezakhiwo esingakwazi ukuzibona kusuka eplanethini yethu noma kumikhumbi-mkhathi ngaphakathi kwesimiso sonozungezilanga. Emhlabeni, izinto ezinkulu ezisezindaweni ezingahlali muntu kufanele zilingiswe ngokuqhubekayo, kodwa izenzakalo ezincane kakhulu zingagcwaliswa okukhethekile, okungukuthi, njengoba kudingeka. Okubona ngesibonakhulu se-electron akufanele kubukeke kusolisa, kodwa ngokuvamile awunayo indlela yokuhlola ukuhambisana kwayo nezingxenye ezingabonakali ze-microworld. Okuhlukile kuvela lapho siklama ngamabomu amasistimu ukuze asebenzise izinto ezincane ezingabonakali ezisebenza ngokuvumelana nezimiso ezaziwayo ukuze zikhiqize imiphumela esingakwazi ukuyiqinisekisa ngokuzimela. Isibonelo sakudala salokhu ikhompuyutha. Ukulingisa, ngakho-ke, kufanele kufake ukulingisa okuqhubekayo kwamakhompiyutha kuze kufike ezingeni lamasango engqondo ngayinye. Lokhu akuyona inkinga njengoba amandla ethu ekhompuyutha akhona manje awabalulekile ngamazinga angemva komuntu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, umdali wokulingisa wangemva komuntu angaba namandla anele okwenza ikhompuyutha ukuze aqaphe ngokuningiliziwe isimo semicabango kubo bonke ubuchopho bomuntu ngaso sonke isikhathi. Ngaleyo ndlela, lapho ethola ukuthi umuntu uzimisele ukuphawula okuthile nge-microworld, angakwazi ukugcwalisa ukulingisa ngezinga elanele lemininingwane njengoba kudingeka. Uma bekungenzeka noma yiliphi iphutha, umqondisi wokulingisa angahlela kalula izimo zanoma ibuphi ubuchopho obuqaphele ukudida ngaphambi kokuthi bucekele phansi ukulingisa. Noma umqondisi angabuyisela emuva isifaniso imizuzwana embalwa futhi asiqale kabusha ngendlela egwema inkinga.
Lokhu kulandela ukuthi ingxenye ebiza kakhulu yokudala isifaniso esingehlukaniseki neqiniso elibonakalayo emicabangweni yomuntu ngaphakathi kuyo kungaba ukudala ukulingisa kobuchopho bezinto eziphilayo kuze kufike ezingeni lemizwa noma le-sub-neural. Nakuba kungenakwenzeka ukunikeza isilinganiso esinembe kakhulu sezindleko zokulingisa okungokoqobo komlando womuntu, singasebenzisa isilinganiso semisebenzi engu-1033-1036 njengesilinganiso esinzima.
Njengoba sizuza ulwazi olwengeziwe ekudaleni into engekho ngokoqobo, sizothola ukuqonda okungcono kwezidingo zokubala ezidingekayo ukuze senze imihlaba enjalo ibonakale ingokoqobo kubavakashi bayo. Kodwa noma ngabe isilinganiso sethu singalungile ngama-oda amaningana wobukhulu, lokhu akwenzi mehluko omkhulu ebufakazini bethu. Siqaphele ukuthi isilinganiso esinzima samandla okucubungula ekhompiyutha enobuningi beplanethi yimisebenzi engu-1042 ngomzuzwana, futhi lokhu kucabangela kuphela imiklamo eyaziwa kakade ye-nanotech, okungenzeka ukuthi ikude kakhulu nelungile. Ikhompuyutha eyodwa enjalo ingalingisa wonke umlando wengqondo wesintu (ake siyibize ngokulingisa okhokho) isebenzisa ingxenye eyodwa kuphela eyisigidi yengcebo yayo ngomzuzwana owodwa. Impucuko yangemva kokuphila komuntu ingase igcine yakha inani lezinkanyezi lamakhompyutha anjalo. Singaphetha ngokuthi impucuko yangemva kokuphila komuntu ingaba nenani elikhulu lezifaniso zokhokho, ngisho noma isebenzisa ingxenye encane yezinsiza zayo kuyo. Singafinyelela lesi siphetho ngisho noma sinephutha elikhulu kukho konke ukulinganisa kwethu.
- Impucuko yangemva kobuntu izoba nezinsiza ezanele zekhompuyutha ukuze iqhube izinombolo eziningi zokulingiswa kokhokho, ngisho nokusebenzisa ingxenye encane kakhulu yezinsiza zazo ngalezi zinhloso.
4. I-Kernel yobufakazi bokulingiswa
Umqondo oyinhloko walesi sihloko ungavezwa kanje: uma kunethuba elibalulekile lokuthi impucuko yethu ngelinye ilanga izofinyelela esigabeni somuntu futhi iqhube imifanekiso eminingi yokhokho, singabonisa kanjani ukuthi asiphili endaweni eyodwa enjalo. ukulingiswa?
Sizothuthukisa lo mbono ngendlela yobufakazi obuqinile. Ake sethule isaziso esilandelayo:
- ingxenye yazo zonke izimpucuko ezisezingeni lomuntu ezisindayo kuze kufike esigabeni sokuphila komuntu;
N isilinganiso senani lokulingiswa kwamadlozi okuqaliswe impucuko yangemva kobuntu;
H isilinganiso senani labantu ababephila empucukweni ngaphambi kokuba ifinyelele esigabeni somuntu.
Khona-ke ingxenye yangempela yabo bonke ababukele abanolwazi lomuntu abaphila ekulingiseni ithi:
Masisho njengengxenye yempucuko yangemva kobuntu enentshisekelo ekusebenziseni izifaniso zamadlozi (noma equkethe okungenani inani elithile labantu abathanda ukwenza kanjalo futhi abanezinsiza ezibalulekile zokuqhuba inani elibalulekile lokulingisa) nanjengenombolo emaphakathi zokulingiswa kwamadlozi aqhutshwa yizimpucuko ezinentshisekelo enjalo, sithola:
Futhi ngakho:
Ngenxa yamandla amakhulu okwenza ikhompuyutha empucuko yangemva kokuphila kwabantu, leli inani elikhulu ngokwedlulele, njengoba sibonile esigabeni esidlule. Uma sibheka ifomula (*) singabona ukuthi okungenani okukodwa kwalokhu kuqagela okulandelayo kuyiqiniso:
5. Isimiso esithambile sokulingana
Singaya kwelinye igxathu futhi siphethe ngokuthi uma (3) kuyiqiniso, ungacishe uqiniseke ukuthi usekulingiseni. Ngokuvamile, uma sazi ukuthi ingxenye x yazo zonke izibukeli ezinolwazi lohlobo lwabantu ziphila ekulingiseni, futhi singenalo ulwazi olwengeziwe olubonisa ukuthi ukuzizwisa kwethu kwangasese kungenzeka kakhulu noma kuncane kufakwe emshinini kunokuba vivo kunezinye izinhlobo zesipiliyoni somuntu, bese ukuzethemba kwethu kokuthi sisekulingiseni kufanele kulingane no-x:
Lesi sinyathelo silungiswa ngomgomo obuthakathaka kakhulu wokulingana. Ake sihlukanise amacala amabili. Esimweni sokuqala, okuyinto elula, zonke izingqondo ezihlolwayo zifana nezakho, ngomqondo wokuthi zifana ncamashi nengqondo yakho: zinolwazi olufanayo kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho okufanayo nawe. Esimweni sesibili, izingqondo zifana kuphela enye nenye ngomqondo obanzi, kuba yilolo hlobo lwezingqondo ezivamile kubantu, kodwa ngokwemfanelo zihlukile komunye nomunye futhi ngayinye inesethi ehlukile yokuhlangenwe nakho. Ngiphikisa ngokuthi ngisho esimweni lapho izingqondo zihluke ngokwemfanelo, ubufakazi bokulingisa busasebenza, inqobo nje uma ungenalo ulwazi oluphendula umbuzo wokuthi yiziphi izingqondo ezihlukahlukene ezilingiswayo nezibonakala ngokwebhayoloji.
Izizathu ezinemininingwane zomgomo oqinile, ohlanganisa zombili izibonelo zethu njengamacala akhethekile amancane, kunikeziwe ezincwadini. Ukushoda kwesikhala akusivumeli ukuthi sethule yonke le ncazelo lapha, kodwa singanikeza lapha enye yezizathu ezizwakalayo. Ake sicabange ukuthi u-x% wabantu unokulandelana okuthile kofuzo S ngaphakathi kwengxenye ethile ye-DNA yabo, evame ukubizwa ngokuthi "i-junk DNA". Ake sithi ngokuqhubekayo akukho ukubonakaliswa kwe-S (ngaphandle kwalokho okungase kuvele phakathi nokuhlolwa kofuzo) nokuthi akukho ukuhlobana phakathi kokuba ne-S nanoma yikuphi ukubonakaliswa kwangaphandle. Khona-ke kuba sobala impela ukuthi ngaphambi kokuthi i-DNA yakho ihlelwe ngokulandelana, kunengqondo ukuhlobanisa ukuzethemba kuka-x% kumbono wokuthi unesiqephu S. Futhi lokhu kuzimele eqinisweni lokuthi abantu abano-S banezingqondo nolwazi oluhluke ngekhwalithi. kusuka kulabo bantu abangenayo i-S. (Bahlukile ngoba nje bonke abantu banesipiliyoni esihlukile, hhayi ngoba kukhona ukuxhumana okuqondile phakathi kuka-S kanye nohlobo lwesipiliyoni umuntu analo.)
Kusebenza ukucabanga okufanayo uma u-S engeyona indawo yokuba nokulandelana kofuzo oluthile, kodwa esikhundleni salokho iqiniso lokuba sekulingisa, ngokucabangela ukuthi asinalo ulwazi olusivumela ukuba sibikezele noma yimuphi umehluko phakathi kokuhlangenwe nakho kwemiqondo elingisiwe kanye phakathi kokuhlangenwe nakho kwalabo bokuqala bebhayoloji
Kufanele kugcizelelwe ukuthi isimiso esithambile sokulingana sigcizelela kuphela ukulingana phakathi kwemibono yokuthi ungumuntu onjani, lapho ungenalo ulwazi lokuthi ungumuntu onjani. Ngokuvamile ayinikezeli ukulingana phakathi kwemibono lapho ungenalo ulwazi oluqondile mayelana nokuthi iyiphi i-hypothesis eyiqiniso. Ngokungafani no-Laplace nezinye izimiso eziqinile zokulingana, ngakho-ke ayikho ngaphansi kwendida ka-Bertrand kanye nobunye ubunzima obufanayo obufaka inkimbinkimbi ukusetshenziswa okungakhawulelwe kwezimiso zokulingana.
Abafundi abajwayelene ne-Doomsday (DA) (J. Leslie, “Ingabe Ukuphela Kwezwe Kuseduze?” Philosophical Quarterly 40, 158: 65–72 (1990)) bangase bakhathazeke ngokuthi isimiso sokulingana esisetshenziswa lapha sisekelwe emicabangweni efanayo. enesibopho sokukhipha umatati ngaphansi kwe-DA, kanye nokuthi ukuphikisa kwezinye iziphetho zayo kubeka ithunzi ekubeni semthethweni kwe-agumenti yokulingisa. Lokhu akulungile. I-DA incike esimisweni esiqinile nesiphikisanayo sokuthi umuntu kufanele acabange sengathi uyisampula engahleliwe evela kubo bonke abantu abake baphila futhi abayophila (isikhathi esidlule, samanje nesizayo), naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi siyazi. ukuthi siphila ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-XNUMX, hhayi esikhathini esithile esikude esizayo. Isimiso esithambile sokungaqiniseki sisebenza kuphela ezimeni lapho singenalo ulwazi olwengeziwe mayelana nokuthi singabaliphi iqembu labantu.
Uma ukubheja kuyisisekelo esithile senkolelo ephusile, khona-ke uma wonke umuntu ebheja ukuthi basekulingisa noma cha, khona-ke uma abantu besebenzisa isimiso esithambile sokungaqiniseki futhi bebheja ukuthi basekulingisa, bethembele olwazini ukuthi iningi labantu likhona. kuwo, khona-ke cishe wonke umuntu uzowina ukubheja kwakhe. Uma bebheja ukuthi abekho ekufaniseni, cishe wonke umuntu uzolahlekelwa. Kubonakala kuwusizo kakhulu ukulandela isimiso sokulingana okuthambile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umuntu angacabanga ukulandelana kwezimo ezingenzeka lapho inani elikhulayo labantu lihlala ekufaniseni: 98%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.9999%, njalonjalo. Njengoba umuntu esondela emkhawulweni ophezulu, lapho wonke umuntu ephila ekulingiseni (lapho umuntu angathola khona ukuthi wonke umuntu usekulingiseni), kubonakala kunengqondo ukudinga ukuthi isiqiniseko umuntu asho ukuthi usekulingiseni kufanele asondele ngokushelela nangokuqhubekayo umkhawulo wokuzethemba okuphelele.
6. Ukuhunyushwa
Amathuba okukhulunywe ngawo esigabeni (1) acace bha. Uma (1) kuyiqiniso, khona-ke isintu cishe siyohluleka nakanjani ukufinyelela ezingeni lokudlula komuntu; azikho izinhlobo zezilwane ezingeni lethu lokukhula eziba ngemva kobuntu, futhi kunzima ukuthola noma yiziphi izizathu zokucabanga ukuthi uhlobo lwethu siqu lunezinzuzo noma isivikelo esikhethekile ezinhlekeleleni zesikhathi esizayo. Uma kubhekwa isimo (1), ngakho-ke kufanele sinike ukufaneleka okuphezulu kwe-Doom (i-DOOM), okungukuthi, umbono wokuthi isintu sizonyamalala ngaphambi kokufinyelela ezingeni le-posthuman:
Singacabanga ngesimo sokuqagela lapho sinedatha edlula ulwazi lwethu lwe-fp. Ngokwesibonelo, uma sizithola sesizoshaywa isibhakabhaka esikhulukazi, singase sicabange ukuthi sasineshwa elimangalisayo. Singabe sesifaka ukufaneleka okukhulu kumbono weDoom kunokulindela kwethu ingxenye yempucuko yezinga lomuntu ezohluleka ukuzuza ukuphila kwangemva kobuntu. Nokho, esimweni sethu sibonakala singenasizathu sokucabanga ukuthi sikhethekile kulokhu, okuhle noma okubi.
Isisekelo (1) ngokwaso asisho ukuthi cishe sizoshabalala. Kusikisela ukuthi mancane amathuba okuthi sifinyelele esigabeni sokudlula komuntu. Lokhu kungenzeka kungasho, isibonelo, ukuthi sizohlala phezulu noma kancane ngaphezu kwamazinga ethu amanje isikhathi eside ngaphambi kokushabalala. Esinye isizathu okungenzeka ukuthi (1) sibe yiqiniso ukuthi impucuko yezobuchwepheshe ingase iwa. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imiphakathi yabantu bakudala iyohlala eMhlabeni.
Ziningi izindlela isintu esingashabalala ngazo ngaphambi kokuba sifinyelele esigabeni sokuthuthuka komuntu. Incazelo engokwemvelo (1) ukuthi sizoshabalala ngenxa yokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe obunamandla kodwa obuyingozi. Umuntu oyedwa ikhandidethi i-nanotechnology yamangqamuzana, isigaba esivuthiwe esizovumela ukwakhiwa kwama-nanorobots aziphindaphindayo akwazi ukondla ukungcola nezinto eziphilayo - uhlobo lwamabhaktheriya emishini. Ama-nanorobots anjalo, uma enzelwe izinjongo ezinonya, angaholela ekufeni kwakho konke okuphilayo emhlabeni.
Okwesibili okuhlukile esiphethweni sempikiswano yokulingisa ukuthi ingxenye yempucuko yangemva komuntu enentshisekelo ekusebenzeni ukulingisa kokhokho ayinaki. Ukuze (2) kube yiqiniso, kufanele kube nokuhlangana okuqinile phakathi kwemikhondo yentuthuko yempucuko ethuthukile. Uma inani lemifanekiso yamadlozi elikhiqizwe impucuko enentshisekelo lilikhulu kakhulu, khona-ke ukutholakala kwempucuko enjalo kufanele kube ngokwedlulele ngendlela efanayo. Cishe ayikho impucuko yangemva kobuntu enquma ukusebenzisa izinsiza zayo ukuze yenze izinombolo eziningi zokulingiswa kokhokho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, cishe yonke impucuko yangemva kobuntu ayinabo abantu abanezinsiza ezifanele kanye nentshisekelo yokuqhuba ukulingisa kokhokho; noma banemithetho, esekelwa ngamandla, evimbela abantu ukuba benze ngokuvumelana nezifiso zabo.
Imaphi amandla angaholela ekuhlanganeni okunjalo? Umuntu angase aphikise ngokuthi izimpucuko ezithuthukile zithuthuka ngokuhlanganyela endleleni eholela ekuqashelweni kokwenqatshelwa kwezimiso zokuziphatha zokuqhuba ukulingisa okokhokho ngenxa yokuhlupheka okutholwa izakhamuzi zesifaniso. Nokho, ngokombono wethu wamanje, akubonakali kusobala ukuthi ukudalwa kohlanga lwesintu kuwukuziphatha okubi. Ngokuphambene nalokho, sithambekele ekuboneni ukuba khona kohlanga lwethu njengolunokubaluleka okukhulu kokuziphatha. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlangana kwemibono yezimiso zokuziphatha kukodwa ekuziphatheni okubi kokulingisa amadlozi akwanele: kufanele kuhlanganiswe nokuhlangana kwesakhiwo senhlalo yempucuko, okuholela emisebenzini ethathwa njengokuziphatha okubi ukuba inqatshelwe ngempumelelo.
Okunye okungenzeka kokuhlangana ukuthi cishe bonke abantu abangemva kwesintu cishe kuyo yonke impucuko yangemva komuntu baguqukela lapho belahlekelwa khona umfutho wokuqhuba izilinganiso zokhokho. Lokhu kuzodinga izinguquko eziphawulekayo ekugqugquzeleni ukushayela okhokho babo abangemva komuntu, ngoba baningi abantu abangathanda ukulingisa amadlozi abo uma bekwazi. Kodwa mhlawumbe eziningi zezifiso zethu zobuntu zizobonakala ziwubuwula kunoma ubani oba ngemva kobuntu. Mhlawumbe ukubaluleka kwesayensi kokulingiswa kokhokho empucukweni yangemva kokuphila komuntu akunakwa (okungabonakali kungenakwenzeka uma kubhekwa ubuhlakani babo obumangalisayo) futhi mhlawumbe abantu abangemva kwesintu babheka ukuzijabulisa njengendlela engasebenzi kahle kakhulu yokuthola injabulo - engatholwa ngemali eshibhile kakhulu ngenxa ukukhuthazwa okuqondile kwezikhungo zokuzijabulisa zobuchopho. Esinye isiphetho esilandela ku-(2) siwukuthi imiphakathi yangemva kobuntu izohluka kakhulu emiphakathini yabantu: ngeke ibe namanxusa azimele acebe kakhulu anohla olugcwele lwezifiso ezifana nezomuntu futhi akhululekile ukwenza ngokuvumelana nazo .
Amathuba achazwe ngesiphetho (3) athakazelisa kakhulu ngokombono womqondo. Uma siphila ekulingiseni, khona-ke indawo yonke esiyibukayo iwucezu oluncane nje kukho konke ukuphila ngokomzimba. I-physics yendawo yonke lapho ikhompuyutha ehlala khona ingase ifane noma ingafani nefiziksi yomhlaba esiyibonayo. Nakuba izwe esilibonayo ngokwezinga elithile “lingokoqobo,” alikho ezingeni elithile eliyisisekelo leqiniso. Kungase kwenzeke ukuthi izimpucuko ezilingisayo zibe ngemva kobuntu. Bona bangakwazi ukwenza okulingisa amadlozi kumakhompyutha anamandla abawakhile endaweni yonke elungisiwe. Amakhompiyutha anjalo angaba "imishini ebonakalayo," umqondo ovame kakhulu kwisayensi yekhompyutha. (Izinhlelo zokusebenza zewebhu ezibhalwe ngombhalo we-Java, isibonelo, zisebenza ngomshini obonakalayo—ikhompyutha elingisisiwe—kwikhompyutha yakho ephathekayo.)
Imishini ebonakalayo ingafakwa phakathi komunye nomunye: kungenzeka ukulingisa umshini obonakalayo olingisa omunye umshini, njalonjalo, ngenani elikhulu lezinyathelo. Uma singase sizakhele ezethu ukulingisa okhokho bethu, lokhu kungaba ubufakazi obuqinile obuphikisana namaphuzu (1) kanye no-(2), ngakho-ke kuzodingeka siphethe ngokuthi siphila ekufanisweni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuzodingeka sisole ukuthi abantu abangemva komuntu abasebenzisa ukulingiswa kwethu bayizidalwa ezilingisayo, futhi abadali bazo, nabo, bangase babe izidalwa ezilingisayo.
Iqiniso lingaqukatha amazinga amaningana. Ngisho noma i-hierarchy yayizophela ezingeni elithile - isimo se-metaphysical salesi sitatimende asicacile - kungase kube nendawo eyanele yenani elikhulu lamazinga eqiniso, futhi leli nani lingase likhule ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. (Okunye ukucatshangelwa okukhuluma ngokumelene ne-hypothesis yamaleveli amaningi ukuthi izindleko zokubala zezilingisi zezinga eliyisisekelo zizoba zikhulu kakhulu. Ukulingisa ngisho nempucuko eyodwa yangemva komuntu kungase kubize kakhulu. Uma kunjalo, kufanele silindele ukulingisa kwethu ukucisha , lapho sisondela ezingeni langemva komuntu.)
Nakuba zonke izici zalesi simiso zingokwemvelo, ngisho nezomzimba, kungenzeka ukudweba ezinye izifaniso ezixegayo nemiqondo yezenkolo yomhlaba. Ngomqondo othile, ama-posthuman aqhuba ukulingisa afana nonkulunkulu maqondana nabantu ekufanisweni: abantu abangemva kwabantu badala umhlaba esiwubonayo; bahlakaniphile kunathi; banamandla onke ngomqondo wokuthi bangaphazamisa ukusebenza kwezwe lethu ngezindlela ezephula imithetho yemvelo, futhi bazi konke ngomqondo wokuthi bangakwazi ukuqapha konke okwenzekayo. Kodwa-ke, bonke abantu bonkulunkulu, ngaphandle kwalabo abaphila ezingeni eliyisisekelo leqiniso, bangaphansi kwezenzo zonkulunkulu abanamandla kakhulu abahlala emazingeni aphezulu eqiniso.
Ukucaciswa okwengeziwe kwalezi zihloko kungase kubangele i-theogony yemvelo engahlola ukwakheka kwalesi sigaba sobukhosi kanye nemikhawulo ebekwe ezakhamuzini ngokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi izenzo zazo ezingeni lazo zingathonya isimo sengqondo sabahlali bezinga elijulile leqiniso kubo. . Isibonelo, uma kungekho muntu ongaqiniseka ukuthi usezingeni eliyisisekelo, khona-ke wonke umuntu kufanele acabangele amathuba okuthi izenzo zakhe zizoklonyeliswa noma zijeziswe, mhlawumbe ngokusekelwe ezimweni ezithile zokuziphatha, ngabasingathi bokulingisa. Ukuphila ngemva kokufa kuyoba yinto engenzeka ngempela. Ngenxa yalokhu kungaqiniseki okuyisisekelo, ngisho nempucuko esezingeni eliyisisekelo izoba nesisusa sokuziphatha kahle. Iqiniso lokuthi banesizathu sokuziphatha kahle kuyoba isizathu esihle sokuthi omunye umuntu aziphathe ngokuziphatha, njalonjalo, ukwakha umbuthano omuhle. Ngale ndlela umuntu angathola into efana nesibopho sokuziphatha emhlabeni wonke, okuyoba yinzuzo yawo wonke umuntu ukuba ahambisane nayo, futhi ephuma “ngokungekho ndawo.”
Ngaphezu kokulingiswa kokhokho, umuntu angacabanga ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukulingiswa okukhethiwe okubandakanya iqembu elincane kuphela labantu noma umuntu oyedwa. Bonke abanye abantu babeyoba "amaZombi" noma "abantu abayithunzi" - abantu abalingisa kuphela ezingeni elanele ukuthi abantu abalingisi ngokugcwele ngeke babone lutho olusolisayo.
Akucaci ukuthi kungaba ishibhile kangakanani ukulingisa abantu bethunzi kunabantu bangempela. Akubonakali nokuthi kuyenzeka ukuthi into iziphathe ngendlela engaqondakali kumuntu wangempela kodwa ingabi nakho okuhlangenwe nakho okuqaphelayo. Noma ngabe ukulingiswa okunjalo okukhethayo kukhona, awukwazi ukuqiniseka ukuthi ukomunye uze uqiniseke ukuthi ukulingiswa okunjalo kuningi kakhulu kunokulinganisa okuphelele. Umhlaba kuzodingeka ube nezifaniso ezicishe zibe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-100 ngaphezulu (izilingiso zempilo yokwazi okukodwa) kunezifaniso eziphelele zamadlozi - ukuze iningi labantu abalingisayo libe sekulingisa u-I.
Kungenzeka futhi ukuthi abalingisi beqe izingxenye ezithile zempilo yengqondo yabantu abalingisiwe futhi babanikeze izinkumbulo ezingamanga zohlobo lokuzizwisa abebengaba nakho phakathi nezikhathi ezeqiwe. Uma kunjalo, umuntu angacabanga ngekhambi elilandelayo (elikude) lenkinga yobubi: ukuthi akukho ngempela ukuhlupheka emhlabeni nokuthi zonke izinkumbulo zokuhlupheka ziyinkohliso. Yiqiniso, le hypothesis ingabhekwa ngokungathí sina kuphela kulezo zikhathi lapho wena ngokwakho ungahlupheki.
Uma sicabanga ukuthi siphila ekulingiseni, ithini imiphumela kithina bantu? Ngokuphambene nalokho osekushiwo kuze kube manje, imiphumela kubantu ayimibi kakhulu. Umhlahlandlela wethu omuhle kakhulu wokuthi abadali bethu bakhetha kanjani ukuhlela umhlaba wethu ukuhlola okujwayelekile komkhathi ngendlela esiyibona ngayo. Izinguquko eziningi zesistimu yethu yezinkolelo cishe zizoba zincane futhi zibe mnene-ngokulingana nokuntula kwethu ukuzethemba emandleni ethu okuqonda uhlelo lokucabanga lwangemva komuntu.
Ukuqonda kahle iqiniso le-thesis (3) akufanele kusenze “sangene” noma kusiphoqelele ukuba sishiye ibhizinisi lethu futhi siyeke ukwenza izinhlelo nokubikezela ikusasa. Ukubaluleka okubalulekile kokusebenza kwe-(3) okwamanje kubonakala kulele endimeni yayo esiphethweni esiphindwe kathathu esinikezwe ngenhla.
Kufanele sethembe ukuthi (3) kuyiqiniso ngoba kunciphisa amathuba okuthi (1), kodwa uma imikhawulo yokubala yenza kube nokwenzeka ukuthi abalingisi bazocisha ukulingisa ngaphambi kokuthi kufinyelele amazinga angemva komuntu, khona-ke ithemba lethu elingcono kakhulu ukuthi (2) kuyiqiniso..
Uma sifunda kabanzi mayelana nokugqugquzelwa kwangemva komuntu kanye nemikhawulo yezinsiza, mhlawumbe njengomphumela wokuguqukela kwethu kubuntu bangemva kobuntu, inkolelo-mbono yokuthi silingisa izoba nesethi ecebile kakhulu yezinhlelo zokusebenza ezisetshenziswayo.
7. Isiphetho
Impucuko yangemva komuntu evuthiwe ngokwezobuchwepheshe ingaba namandla amakhulu okwenza ikhompuyutha. Ngokusekelwe kulokhu, ukucabanga mayelana nokulingiswa kubonisa ukuthi okungenani okukodwa kwalokhu okulandelayo kuyiqiniso:
- (1) Ingxenye yempucuko yezinga lomuntu efinyelela ezingeni langemva komuntu isondele kakhulu kuqanda.
- (2) Isabelo sempucuko yangemva komuntu enentshisekelo ekusebenziseni izifaniso zabanduleli siseduze kakhulu noziro.
- (3) Ingxenye yabo bonke abantu abanohlobo lwethu lwesipiliyoni abaphila ekulingiseni iseduze neyodwa.
Uma (1) kuyiqiniso, cishe cishe sizofa ngaphambi kokuba sifinyelele ezingeni langemva kobuntu.
Uma (2) kuyiqiniso, kufanele kube nokuhlangana okuhambisana ngokuqinile kwezindlela zokuthuthukiswa kwazo zonke izimpucuko ezithuthukile, ukuze kungabikho noyedwa kubo ongaba nabantu abacebile abangavuma ukulingisa okhokho babo futhi bakhululeke ukwenza. ngakho.
Uma (3) kuyiqiniso, cishe cishe siphila ekufanisweni. Ihlathi elimnyama lokungazi kwethu likwenza kube nengqondo ukusabalalisa ukuzethemba kwethu cishe ngokulinganayo phakathi kwamaphuzu (1), (2) kanye (3).
Ngaphandle uma sesivele siphila ekulingiseni, inzalo yethu cishe ngeke neze isebenzise ukulingiswa kwamadlozi.
Ukubonga
Ngibonga abantu abaningi ngokuphawula kwabo, ikakhulukazi u-Amara Angelica, Robert Bradbury, Milan Cirkovic, Robin Hanson, Hal Finney, Robert A. Freitas Jr., John Leslie, Mitch Porter, Keith DeRose, Mike Treder, Mark Walker, Eliezer Yudkowsky , nonompempe abangaziwa.
Ukuhumusha: Alexey Turchin
Amanothi omhumushi:
1) Iziphetho (1) kanye (2) akuzona ezendawo. Bathi noma zonke izimpucuko ziyashabalala, noma wonke umuntu akafuni ukudala ukulingiswa. Lesi sitatimende asisebenzi kuphela kuwo wonke umhlaba obonakalayo, hhayi kuphela ekupheleleni kwendawo yonke ngale komkhathizwe, kodwa futhi nakuyo yonke isethi yama-universe angu-10**500 degree anezici ezihlukahlukene ezingenzeka, ngokombono wezintambo. . Ngokuphambene, ithisisi yokuthi siphila ekulingiseni ingeyasendaweni. Izitatimende ezijwayelekile mancane kakhulu amathuba okuba zibe yiqiniso kunezitatimende ezithile. (Qhathanisa: “Bonke abantu bablond” futhi “u-Ivanov blond” noma “wonke amaplanethi anomkhathi” futhi “iVenus inomoya.”) Ukuphikisa isitatimende esivamile, okuhlukile kwanele. Ngakho-ke, isimangalo sokuthi siphila ekufanisweni kungenzeka kakhulu kunezinye izindlela ezimbili zokuqala.
2) Ukuthuthukiswa kwamakhompiyutha akudingekile - isibonelo, amaphupho anele. Okuzobona ubuchopho obushintshiwe futhi obuklanywe ngokukhethekile.
3) Ukucabangela kokulingisa kusebenza ekuphileni kwansuku zonke. Iningi lezithombe ezingena ebuchosheni bethu ziyimifanekiso - lawa amamuvi, i-TV, i-inthanethi, izithombe, ukukhangisa - futhi okokugcina - amaphupho.
I-4) Uma into engavamile kakhulu esiyibonayo, maningi amathuba okuba itholakala ekufanisweni. Isibonelo, uma ngibona ingozi embi, khona-ke cishe ngiyibona ephusheni, ku-TV noma ku-movie.
5) Ukulingisa kungaba kwezinhlobo ezimbili: ukulingiswa kwayo yonke impucuko kanye nokulingiswa komlando womuntu siqu noma isiqephu esisodwa esivela empilweni yomuntu oyedwa.
6) Kubalulekile ukuhlukanisa ukulingiswa nokulingisa - kungenzeka ukulingisa umuntu noma impucuko engakaze ibe khona emvelweni.
7) I-Supercivilizations kufanele ibe nentshisekelo ekudaleni ukulingisa ukuze kufundwe izinguqulo ezihlukene zesikhathi sakho esidlule futhi ngaleyo ndlela izindlela ezihlukile zokuthuthuka kwazo. Futhi, ngokwesibonelo, ukutadisha imvamisa emaphakathi yezinye izinto ezihamba phambili emkhathini kanye nezakhiwo zazo ezilindelekile.
8) Inkinga yokulingisa ibhekene nenkinga yama-Zombies efilosofi (okungukuthi, izidalwa ezingenazo i-qualia, njengezithunzi kusikrini se-TV). Izidalwa ezilingisayo akufanele zibe ama-Zombies efilosofi. Uma ukulingisa okuningi kuqukethe ama-zombies efilosofi, ukucabanga ngakho akusebenzi (njengoba ngingeyona i-zombie yefilosofi.)
9) Uma kunamaleveli amaningana okulingisa, khona-ke ukulingiswa kweleveli 2 okufanayo kungasetshenziswa ekufaniseni okuningana okuhlukile kweleveli 1 yilabo abaphila ezingeni elingu-0 lokulingisa. Ukuze ulondoloze izinsiza zekhompyutha. Kufana nabantu abaningi abahlukene ababuka ifilimu efanayo. Okungukuthi, ake sithi ngidale ukulingiswa okuthathu. Futhi ngamunye wabo udale ama-subsimulation angu-1000. Ngemuva kwalokho kuzodingeka ngisebenzise ukulingiswa okungu-3003 kukhompuyutha yami enkulu. Kodwa uma ukulingisa kudale ukulingiswa okufanayo okufana ncamashi, khona-ke ngidinga kuphela ukulingisa izifaniso eziyi-1000, ngethula umphumela wazo zonke izikhathi ezintathu. Okusho ukuthi, ngizosebenzisa ukulingiswa okungu-1003 sekukonke. Ngamanye amazwi, ukulingiswa okukodwa kungaba nabanikazi abaningana.
10) Ukuthi ngabe uphila ekufanisweni noma cha kunganqunywa ukuthi impilo yakho ihluke kangakanani esilinganisweni ekuqondeni okuyingqayizivele, okuthakazelisayo noma okubalulekile. Isiphakamiso lapha ukuthi ukwenza ukulingisa kwabantu abathokozisayo abaphila ezikhathini ezithakazelisayo zoshintsho olubalulekile kukhanga kakhulu kubadali bokulingisa, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi injongo yabo - ukuzijabulisa noma ucwaningo. . Kodwa-ke, umthelela wokukhethwa kokubuka kufanele ucatshangelwe lapha: abalimi abangafundile abakwazanga ukungabaza ukuthi bebesekulingiseni noma cha, ngakho-ke iqiniso lokuthi awusiyena umlimi ongafundile akufakazeli ukuthi usekulingiseni. Mhlawumbe, inkathi esifundeni seSingularity izoba nesithakazelo esikhulu kubabhali bokulingisa, ngoba esifundeni sayo kungenzeka kube nokuphindaphindeka okungenakuhlehliswa kwezindlela zokuthuthukiswa kwempucuko, okungathonywa yizici ezincane, kuhlanganise nezici zentuthuko. umuntu oyedwa. Ngokwesibonelo, mina, u-Alexey Turchin, ngikholelwa ukuthi ukuphila kwami kuthakazelisa kangangokuthi kungenzeka ukuthi kulingiswe kunokwangempela.
11) Iqiniso lokuthi sisekulingiseni kwandisa ubungozi bethu - a) ukulingisa kungavalwa b) ababhali bokulingisa bangazama ngakho, benze izimo ezingenzeki ngokusobala - ukuwa kwe-asteroid, njll.
12) Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi i-Bostrom ithi okungenani eyodwa kulaba abathathu iyiqiniso. Okusho ukuthi, izimo zingenzeka lapho amanye amaphuzu eyiqiniso ngesikhathi esifanayo. Isibonelo, iqiniso lokuthi sizokufa alifaki ngaphandle iqiniso lokuthi siphila ekufanisweni, kanye neqiniso lokuthi izimpucuko eziningi azidali ukulingisa.
13) Abantu abalingiswa kanye nomhlaba obazungezile kungenzeka bangafani nanoma yimuphi umuntu wangempela noma umhlaba wangempela nhlobo, kubalulekile ukuthi bacabange ukuthi basemhlabeni wangempela. Abakwazi ukubona umehluko ngoba abakaze bawubone umhlaba wangempela nhlobo. Noma ikhono labo lokubona umehluko liyafiphala. Njengoba kwenzeka ephusheni.
14) Kukhona isilingo sokuthola izimpawu zokulingisa emhlabeni wethu, ezibonakaliswa njengezimangaliso. Kodwa izimangaliso zingenzeka ngaphandle kokulingisa.
15) Kukhona imodeli yokuhleleka komhlaba esusa inkinga ehlongozwayo. (kodwa hhayi ngaphandle kokuphikisana kwayo). Okungukuthi, lena imodeli ye-Castanevo-Buddhist, lapho umbukeli ezala umhlaba wonke.
16) Umqondo wokulingisa usho ukwenza kube lula. Uma ukulingisa kunembile ku-athomu, khona-ke kuyoba yiqiniso elifanayo. Ngalo mqondo, umuntu angacabanga ngesimo lapho impucuko ethile ifunde ukudala imihlaba ehambisanayo enezakhiwo ezinikeziwe. Kule mihlaba, angakwazi ukwenza izivivinyo zemvelo, enze impucuko ehlukene. Okungukuthi, kuyinto efana ne-space zoo hypothesis. Le mihlaba edaliwe ngeke ibe ukulingiswa, njengoba izoba ngokoqobo kakhulu, kodwa izoba ngaphansi kokulawulwa yilabo abawadalile futhi bangakwazi ukuwavula nokuwavala. Futhi kuzoba nokuningi kwazo, ngakho-ke ukucabanga kwezibalo okufanayo kusebenza lapha njengasekucabangeni kokulingisa.
Isahluko esivela esihlokweni esithi “Ama-UFO njengesici sobungozi bomhlaba wonke”:
Ama-UFO angama-glitches ku-Matrix
Ngokuka-N. Bostrom (u-Nick Bostrom. Ubufakazi Bokulingisa. ), amathuba okuthi siphila emhlabeni olingisa ngokuphelele aphakeme kakhulu. Okusho ukuthi, umhlaba wethu ungalingiswa ngokuphelele kukhompuyutha uhlobo oluthile lwempucuko ephezulu. Lokhu kuvumela ababhali bokulingisa ukuthi benze noma yiziphi izithombe kuyo, ezinemigomo engaqondakali kithi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma izinga lokulawula ekufanisweni liphansi, khona-ke amaphutha azonqwabelana kuwo, njengalapho usebenzisa ikhompuyutha, futhi kuzokwenzeka ukwehluleka kanye nezingqinamba ezingabonwa. Amadoda agqoke ezimnyama aphenduka abe u-Agent Smiths, osula iminonjana yamaphutha. Noma abanye abahlali bekulingisa bangathola ukufinyelela kwamanye amakhono angabhaliwe. Le ncazelo isivumela ukuthi sichaze noma yiziphi izimangaliso ezingase zibe khona, kodwa ayichazi lutho oluqondile - kungani sibona ukubonakaliswa okunjalo hhayi, ukusho, izindlovu ezibomvu zindiza zibheke phansi. Ingozi eyinhloko ukuthi ukulingisa kungasetshenziswa ukuhlola izimo ezimbi kakhulu zokusebenza kwesistimu, okungukuthi, ezindleleni eziyinhlekelele, nokuthi ukulingisa kuzomane kucishwe uma kuba yinkimbinkimbi kakhulu noma kuqeda umsebenzi wako.
Inkinga enkulu lapha yizinga lokulawula ku-Matrix. Uma sikhuluma nge-Matrix ngaphansi kokulawulwa okuqinile kakhulu, khona-ke amathuba okuba nezinkinga ezingahleliwe kuwo mancane. Uma i-Matrix yethulwa kalula bese ishiywa kumadivayisi ayo, khona-ke kuzonqwabelana kuwo, njengoba nje ama-glitches anqwabelana ngesikhathi sokusebenza kwesistimu yokusebenza, njengoba isebenza futhi njengoba izinhlelo ezintsha zengezwa.
Inketho yokuqala isetshenziswa uma ababhali be-Matrix benentshisekelo kuyo yonke imininingwane yezehlakalo ezenzeka ku-Matrix. Kulokhu, bazoqapha ngokuqinile wonke ama-glitches futhi bawasule ngokucophelela. Uma benentshisekelo kuphela kumphumela wokugcina we-Matrix noma esinye sezici zayo, khona-ke ukulawula kwabo kuzoba nzima kakhulu. Isibonelo, lapho umuntu eqhuba uhlelo lwe-chess futhi eshiya usuku, unesithakazelo kuphela kumphumela wohlelo, kodwa hhayi emininingwaneni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngesikhathi sokusebenza kohlelo lwe-chess, lungakwazi ukubala imidlalo eminingi ebonakalayo, ngamanye amazwi, imihlaba ebonakalayo. Ngamanye amazwi, ababhali lapha banesithakazelo kumphumela wezibalo womsebenzi wokulingisa okuningi kakhulu, futhi banendaba nemininingwane yomsebenzi wokulingisa okukodwa kuphela kuze kube yilapho amaphutha angathinti umphumela wokugcina. Futhi kunoma yiluphi uhlelo lolwazi oluyinkimbinkimbi, inani elithile lamaphutha liyanqwabelana, futhi njengoba ubunkimbinkimbi besistimu bukhula, ubunzima bokuwasusa bukhula ngokushesha. Ngakho-ke, kulula ukubekezelela ukuba khona kwama-glitches athile kunokuwasusa empandeni.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kusobala ukuthi isethi yezinhlelo ezilawulwa ngokuxekethile zikhulu kakhulu kunesethi yalezo ezilawulwa ngokuqinile, njengoba izinhlelo ezilawulwa ngobuthaka zethulwa ngobuningi obukhulu lapho zingakhiqizwa ngokushibhile KAKHULU. Isibonelo, inani lemidlalo ye-virtual chess likhulu kakhulu kunemidlalo yogogo bangempela, futhi inani lezinhlelo zokusebenza zasekhaya likhulu kakhulu kunenombolo yamakhompuyutha amakhulu kahulumeni.
Ngakho-ke, amaphutha ku-Matrix ayamukeleka inqobo nje uma engathinti ukusebenza kohlelo lonke. Kuyafana empeleni, uma ifonti yesiphequluli sami iqala ukubonakala ngombala ohlukile, khona-ke ngeke ngiqale kabusha yonke ikhompuyutha noma ngidilize isistimu yokusebenza. Kodwa sibona into efanayo ocwaningweni lwama-UFO nezinye izigigaba ezixakile! Kukhona umkhawulo othile ngenhla lapho izenzakalo ngokwazo noma ukuzwakala kwazo komphakathi okungakwazi ukweqa. Lapho nje izinto ezithile ziqala ukusondela kulo mngcele, ziyanyamalala, noma kuvele abantu abamnyama, noma kuvela ukuthi kwakuyinkohliso, noma othile uyafa.
Qaphela ukuthi kunezinhlobo ezimbili zokulingiswa - ukulingiswa okugcwele komhlaba wonke kanye nokuzilingisa ngokwakho. Ekugcineni, okuhlangenwe nakho kwempilo yomuntu oyedwa kuphela (noma iqembu elincane labantu) kuyenziwa. Ekufanisweni kwe-I, kungenzeka ukuthi uzithole ubambe iqhaza elithakazelisayo, kuyilapho ekulingiseni okuphelele, amaphesenti angu-70 amaqhawe angabalimi. Ngenxa yezizathu zokuqaphela, ukulingiswa kwe-I kufanele kuvame kakhulu—yize lokhu kucatshangelwa kudinga ukucatshangelwa okwengeziwe. Kodwa ku-I-simulations, itimu ye-UFO kufanele isivele ibekwe phansi, njengawo wonke umlando womhlaba. Futhi kungase kufakwe ngenhloso - ukuhlola ukuthi ngizosisingatha kanjani lesi sihloko.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunoma yiluphi uhlelo lolwazi, ngokushesha noma kamuva, amagciwane avela - okungukuthi, amayunithi wolwazi we-parasitic ahloselwe ukuziphindaphinda. Amayunithi anjalo angavela ku-Matrix (kanye nasekuqulekeni okuhlangene), futhi uhlelo olwakhelwe ngaphakathi lokulwa namagciwane kufanele lusebenze ngokumelene nawo. Nokho, ngokuhlangenwe nakho kokusebenzisa amakhompiyutha kanye nokuhlangenwe nakho kwezinhlelo zebhayoloji, siyazi ukuthi kulula ukubekezelela ukuba khona kwamagciwane angenangozi kunokuwafaka ushevu kuze kube sekugcineni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukubhujiswa okuphelele kwamagciwane ngokuvamile kudinga ukubhidlizwa kwesistimu.
Ngakho-ke, kungacatshangwa ukuthi ama-UFO angamagciwane axhaphaza ama-glitches ku-Matrix. Lokhu kuchaza ukungabi nangqondo kokuziphatha kwabo, njengoba ubuhlakani babo bulinganiselwe, kanye ne-parasitism yabo kubantu - njengoba umuntu ngamunye abelwe inani elithile lezinsiza zekhompyutha ku-Matrix ezingasetshenziswa. Kungacatshangwa ukuthi abanye abantu basebenzise amathuba okuba nezinkinga ku-Matrix ukufeza izinhloso zabo, okuhlanganisa ukungafi, kodwa kanjalo nezidalwa eziphuma kwezinye izindawo zekhompyutha, isibonelo, ukulingisa kwemihlaba ehluke kakhulu, eyabe ingena emhlabeni wethu.
Omunye umbuzo uwukuthi lingakanani izinga lokujula kokulingiswa okungenzeka sikuso. Kungenzeka ukulingisa umhlaba ngokunemba kwe-athomu, kodwa lokhu kuzodinga izinsiza ezinkulu zekhompuyutha. Esinye isibonelo esidlulele umdubuli womuntu wokuqala. Kuyo, isithombe esinezinhlangothi ezintathu sendawo sidonswa njengoba kudingeka lapho umlingisi oyinhloko esondela endaweni entsha, ngokusekelwe ohlelweni olujwayelekile lwendawo kanye nemigomo ethile evamile. Noma izikhala zisetshenziselwa ezinye izindawo, futhi umdwebo onembile wezinye izindawo azinakwa (njengakwifilimu ethi "13th Floor"). Ngokusobala, lapho ukulingiswa kunembe kakhudlwana futhi kunemininingwane eminingi, kuyancipha kaningi ukuthi kuzoba namaphutha. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukulingisa okwenziwe “ngokuxhamazela” kuzoqukatha amaphutha amaningi, kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo kusebenzisa izinsiza zekhompuyutha ezingaphansi ngokungenakulinganiswa. Ngamanye amazwi, ngezindleko ezifanayo kungenzeka ukwenza isifaniso esisodwa esinembe kakhulu noma isilinganiso esiyisigidi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, sicabanga ukuthi isimiso esifanayo siyasebenza ekufanisweni kwezinye izinto: okungukuthi, ukuthi into eshibhile, ivame kakhulu (okungukuthi, kunengilazi engaphezu kwedayimane emhlabeni, ama-meteorite amaningi kunama-asteroids, futhi T. e.) Ngakho-ke, maningi amathuba okuba sibe ngaphakathi kokulingisa okushibhile, okwenziwe lula, kunokuba sibe ngaphakathi kokulingisa okuyinkimbinkimbi, okunembe kakhulu. Kungaphikiswana ngokuthi esikhathini esizayo izinsiza zekhompuyutha ezingenamkhawulo zizotholakala, ngakho-ke noma yimuphi umlingisi uzosebenzisa ukulingisa okunemininingwane efanele. Kodwa-ke, yilapho umphumela we-matryoshka simulations ungena khona. Okungukuthi, ukulingisa okuthuthukisiwe kungakha ukulingiswa kwakho, ake sikubize ngezifaniso zezinga lesibili. Ake sithi ukulingisa okuthuthukisiwe kwamaphakathi nekhulunyaka lama-21 (okudalwe, ake sithi, ekhulwini langempela lama-23) kungakha izigidigidi zokulingisa zasekuqaleni kwekhulunyaka lama-21. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, uzosebenzisa amakhompiyutha kusukela phakathi nekhulu lama-21, azobe elinganiselwe kakhulu kwizinsiza zekhompiyutha kunamakhompyutha ekhulu lama-23. (Futhi futhi ikhulu lama-23 langempela lizosindisa ekunembeni kwezilinganiso, njengoba zingabalulekile kulo.) Ngakho-ke, zonke izilinganiso eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane zasekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-21 ezizozidala zizoba ukonga kakhulu mayelana nezinsiza zekhompiyutha. Ngenxa yalokhu, inani lezifaniso zasendulo, kanye nezifaniso zangaphambili ngokwesikhathi esilingiswayo, lizoba likhulu ngokuphindwe ngebhiliyoni kunenani lokulingiswa okunemininingwane eminingi noma okwakamuva, ngakho-ke umuntu obukele ngokunganaki unethuba eliphindwe kayisigidigidi. zokuzithola esekweyangaphambili (okungenani kuze kube sekufike amakhompiyutha amakhulu akwazi ukuzidalela ezawo zokulingisa) kanye nokulingisa okushibhile nokulula kakhulu. Futhi ngokuvumelana nesimiso sokucabangela isampula, wonke umuntu kufanele azibheke njengommeleli ongahleliwe wezidalwa eziningi ezifana naye uma efuna ukuthola izilinganiso ezinembile kakhulu zamathuba.
Okunye okungenzeka ukuthi ama-UFO ethulwa ngamabomu ku-Matrix ukuze akhohlise abantu abahlala kuwo futhi abone ukuthi bazosabela kanjani kuwo. Ngoba ukulingisa okuningi, ngicabanga, kuklanyelwe ukulingisa umhlaba ezimeni ezithile ezikhethekile, ezibucayi.
Noma kunjalo, le mbono ayichazi yonke inhlobonhlobo yokubonakaliswa okuthile kwama-UFO.
Ingozi lapha ukuthi uma ukulingisa kwethu kugcwala izingqinamba, abanikazi bokulingiswa bangase banqume ukukuqala kabusha.
Okokugcina, singathatha “isizukulwane esizenzakalelayo se-Matrix” - okungukuthi, ukuthi siphila endaweni yekhompyutha, kodwa le ndawo yazivelela ngandlela thize emsuka wokuba khona kwendawo yonke ngaphandle kokulamula kwanoma yiziphi izidalwa ezibadali. Ukuze le nkolelo-mbono iqiniseke ngokwengeziwe, kufanele siqale sikhumbule ukuthi ngokwenye yezincazelo zeqiniso elingokoqobo, izinhlayiya eziyisisekelo ngokwazo ziyi-automata yamaselula - into efana nezinhlanganisela ezinzile emdlalweni we-Life. (umdlalo)
Imisebenzi eminingi ka-Alexey Turchin:
Mayelana ne-Ontol
I-Ontol imephu ekuvumela ukuthi ukhethe umzila osebenza kahle kakhulu wokulolonga ukubuka kwakho komhlaba.
I-Ontol isuselwe phezu kwe-superposition yokuhlola okuzimele, ukubonakaliswa kwemibhalo efundiwe (okungcono, izigidi/izigidigidi zabantu). Umuntu ngamunye obambe iqhaza kuphrojekthi uzinqumela ukuthi yiziphi izinto ezibaluleke kakhulu eziyi-10/100 azifundile/azibukile ezicini ezibalulekile zokuphila (ukucabanga, impilo, umndeni, imali, ukwethenjwa, njll.) eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule noma impilo yonke . Yini engabiwa ngokuchofoza oku-1 (imibhalo namavidiyo, hhayi izincwadi, izingxoxo nemicimbi).
Umphumela omuhle wokugcina we-Ontol ukufinyelela ku-10x-100x ngokushesha (kunama-analog akhona e-wikipedia, quora, izingxoxo, iziteshi, i-LJ, izinjini zokusesha) emibhalweni ebalulekile namavidiyo azothinta impilo yomfundi (“O, ngifisa kanjani Ngike ngawufunda lo mbhalo ngaphambili! Ngokunokwenzeka, impilo ngabe ihambe ngendlela ehlukile"). Kumahhala kubo bonke abahlali beplanethi futhi ngokuchofoza oku-1.
- Isiteshi socingo:
- I-prototype yesevisi yewebhu:
- Mayelana no-Habre:
- Ku-inthanethi mayelana neziqalo ezivela ku-Y Combinator:
Source: www.habr.com