Okokuqala, i-quote (inde kakhulu, kodwa ibaluleke kakhulu, engiyicaphuna ngesifinyezo):
“Njengoba umhlaba ungena enkathini entsha, usugcwele kakhulu futhi uyashesha. Intuthuko eshesha kakhulu yenzeke emadolobheni amakhulu anjengeLondon, Paris, New York kanye neChicago... nengxenye yokwanda kwenzeka eminyakeni engamashumi amabili edlule yekhulunyaka. Nokho, njengoba laba bantu abaningi (kanye nempahla yabo) besuka kwenye indawo beya kwenye, kwaphakama inkinga. Izindlela zokuthutha eziyinhloko zenze inani lemiphumela emibi, eyaziwa phakathi kwezazi zezomnotho njengezinto zangaphandle ezingezinhle: lezi zihlanganisa ukuminyana kwezimoto, amazinga omshwalense aphezulu ngokweqile kanye nezingozi eziningi zomgwaqo eziholela ekulimaleni... Inkinga yokungcoliswa komoya okuvela ezikhiqizweni ezinobuthi iye yaphakama. , ezisongela kokubili imvelo nempilo yabantu.
Ucabanga ukuthi sikhuluma ngezimoto? Akukho okufana nalokhu. Sikhuluma ngamahhashi... Ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-200, kwakukhona cishe amahhashi ayizinkulungwane ezingu-17 asebenza eNew York City kuphela - cishe ihhashi elilodwa kubantu abangu-XNUMX...
Izinqola ezidonswa amahhashi zazigcwele imigwaqo, futhi uma ihhashi liphuka umlenze, lalivame ukuhlatshwa ngaso leso sikhathi. Lokhu kwaholela ekubambezelekeni okwengeziwe. Abanikazi bamahhashi abaningi bathenga imishwalense (ukuvikela ukukhwabanisa) ehlinzekela ukuhlatshwa kwesilwane ngumuntu wesithathu. Lokhu kwakusho ukuthi umnikazi kwakufanele alinde amaphoyisa, udokotela wezilwane, noma i-ASPCA (American Society Against Cruelty to Animals) ukuze afike. Kodwa ngisho nangemva kokufa kwesilwane, ukuminyana akuzange kume. “Amahhashi afile ayengalawuleki kakhulu,” kubhala uchwepheshe wezokuthutha u-Eric Morris. Ngenxa yalokho, abaqaphi babevame ukulinda kuze kube yilapho izidumbu zibola, ngemva kwalokho zazingase zigawulwe zibe izingcezu futhi zikhishwe.”
Umsindo wezinqola nokuklabalasa kwezinselo kwabacasula abantu kangangokuthi kwamanye amadolobha kwakwenqatshelwe ukugibela amahhashi... Kwakulula kakhulu ukushayiswa ihhashi noma inqola... Ngo-1900, kwafa abantu baseNew York abangu-200. ngenxa yezingozi ezibandakanya amahhashi, noma eyodwa yezakhamuzi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-17. Ngo-2007, kwafa abantu baseNew York abangama-274 ngenxa yezingozi zezimoto (eyodwa kwabangama-30). Lokhu kusho ukuthi ngo-1900, umuntu waseNew York wayecishe aphindeke kabili amathuba okufa ngokushayiswa ihhashi njengoba evela engozini yemoto namuhla...
Isimo esibi kakhulu kwakungomquba. Ihhashi elivamile likhiqiza cishe amakhilogremu ayishumi omquba ngosuku. Amahhashi ayizinkulungwane ezingu-200 akhiqiza amathani angaphezu kwezinkulungwane ezimbili. Nsuku zonke, izinsuku eziyisikhombisa ngesonto... Umquba wawuchichima emigwaqweni yedolobha kuhle kweqhwa. Ehlobo, iphunga lalikhuphukela esibhakabhakeni. Lapho kufika inkathi yemvula, imifudlana yobulongwe bamahhashi yayigcwele imigwaqo eseceleni futhi yagcwala amagumbi angaphansi ezakhiwo zokuhlala... Indle eyayilele emigwaqweni yayiyingozi kakhulu empilweni. Banikeza indawo yokuzalela izigidigidi zezimpukane ezisakaza izifo eziningi ezibulalayo. Amagundane agawula izintaba zomquba ukuze athole okusanhlamvu okungagayekisiwe kanye nezinsalela zokunye ukudla kwamahhashi - okwase kubiza kakhulu ngenxa yokukhula kwenani lamahhashi kanye nesidingo esihlobene. Akekho owayekhathazekile ngokufudumala kwembulunga yonke ngaleso sikhathi, kodwa ukube kwenzekile, ihhashi lalizoba isitha sokuqala somphakathi ngoba ubulongwe bukhipha i-methane, igesi ebamba ukushisa enamandla ngokwedlulele.
Kwakubonakala sengathi umhlaba wawufinyelele esimweni lapho amadolobha ayengeke akwazi ukuphila namahhashi noma engenawo.
Futhi kungazelelwe inkinga yashabalala. Lokhu kwakungabangelwa isenzo sikahulumeni noma ukungenela kwaphezulu. Izakhamuzi zasedolobheni azizange zihlele izinhlangano zomphakathi noma zikhuthaze ukuzithiba, zenqaba ukusebenzisa amandla amahhashi. Inkinga yaxazululwa ngokusungulwa kwezobuchwepheshe ... Amahhashi anyamalala emigwaqweni ngenxa yokufika kwe-tram kagesi nemoto. Zombili lezi zindlela zishiye imfucumfucu encane kakhulu futhi zasebenza kahle kakhulu. Ishibhile ukuyithenga futhi kulula ukuyishayela kunehhashi, imoto iye yanconywa njengomsindisi wemvelo. Izakhamuzi zasemadolobheni emhlabeni jikelele zigcine zikwazile ukuphefumula ngaphandle kokubamba amakhala ngeminwe futhi ziqhubeke nendlela yazo emgwaqeni wenqubekelaphambili.
Indaba, ngeshwa, ayigcini lapho. Izixazululo ezasindisa umhlaba ngekhulu lama-XNUMX zaqala ukubeka izingozi ekhulwini elilandelayo: zombili izimoto kanye nama-tram kagesi anezimo zazo zangaphandle ezimbi. Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ye-carbon monoxide kusuka ezimotweni ezingaphezu kwebhiliyoni kanye nezinkulungwane zezitshalo zamandla kagesi ngamalahle phakathi nekhulu leminyaka zifudumeza umkhathi woMhlaba. Njengoba nje imfucumfucu yamahhashi ngesinye isikhathi yaqala ukusongela impucuko, manje kwenzeka okufanayo ngenxa yezinto ezenziwa abantu.
UMartin Weitzman, isazi sezomnotho ngendawo ezungezile eYunivesithi yaseHarvard, ulinganisela ukuthi kunamathuba angamaphesenti amahlanu okuthi amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke akhuphuke kangangokuba “ayocekela phansi iPlanethi Yomhlaba njengoba siwazi.” Kweminye imibuthano - ngokwesibonelo, kwabezindaba, abavame ukuthanda ukukhuluma ngezimo ezithile ze-apocalyptic - imizwa edabukisayo iqhubekela phambili.
Lokhu akufanele kusimangaze. Lapho isixazululo senkinga singalungile phambi kwamehlo ethu, sivame ukukholelwa ukuthi inkinga ayinaso nhlobo isixazululo. Kodwa umlando usikhombisa izikhathi ngezikhathi ukuthi ukucabanga okunjalo akulungile.
Isintu...sinekhono elimangalisayo lokuthola izixazululo zobuchwepheshe ezinkingeni ezibonakala zingenakuxazululeka, futhi lokhu kungenzeka esimweni sokufudumala kwembulunga yonke. Iphuzu lapha akukhona ukuthi inkinga incane noma inkulu kangakanani. Ubuhlakani bomuntu... buhlala buthuthuka. Izindaba ezikhuthaza nakakhulu ukuthi izixazululo zobuchwepheshe ngokuvamile zilula kakhulu (... ishibhile) kunalokho abaprofethi benhlekelele abangakucabanga.
...Okuxakayo ukuthi intengo yobulongwe behhashi isiphinde yanyuka, kangangokuthi abanikazi bepulazi elilodwa eMassachusetts kungekudala baphendukela emaphoyiseni befuna kuboshwe umakhelwane owayeqoqa ubulongwe endaweni yabo. Ngokusho kukamakhelwane, lokhu kungaboni ngaso linye kudalwe wukuthi umnikazi wepulazi waphambilini wamvumela ukuthi enze lokhu. Nokho, umnikazi omusha akavumelananga nalokhu futhi wafuna imali engu-$600 ngomanyolo obuqoqiwe.
Ubani owaba ngumakhelwane - umthandi womquba? Akekho omunye ngaphandle kukaMartin Weizmann, isazi sezomnotho esibeke phambili isibikezelo esesabekayo sokufudumala kwembulunga yonke.
“Siyakuhalalisela,” omunye uzakwabo wabhalela uWeizmann lapho le ndaba iphuma emaphephandabeni. "Iningi losomnotho engibaziyo lingabathumeli bobuhlanya." Futhi wena, ngokusobala, nguwe wedwa ongenisa ngaphandle phakathi kwabo.”
USteven D. Levitt noStephen J. Dubner "Superfreakonomics" (isipelingi sokuqala nezimpawu zokuloba zomhumushi zigciniwe).
Nansi i-pseudo-epigraph eshubile evela ku-University of Chicago uchwepheshe wezomnotho uSteven Levitt.
I-apocalypse ikhanseliwe. Nokho, njengazo zonke ezinye izinketho “zokuphela kwezwe,” eziqala ngokugcwala ngokweqile nokuntuleka kokudla, futhi ziphele ngokuntuleka kwemithombo yemvelo noma amanzi okuphuza.
Kuyacaca ukuthi kungani ama-apocalypse enkolo ekhanselwa—izinsuku zawo ziye zamiswa izikhathi eziningi kangangokuthi ukukhala okulandelayo “kwempisi” akusakhathazi muntu. Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, isibhakabhaka sayeka ukuba umkhathi, futhi imbangela “yokuqhuma okukhulu” yaba nguNkulunkulu. Ukuxoxa ngalesi sihloko, empeleni, kuyahlekisa futhi "kungcolile kancane."
Kodwa izinkolelo-mbono ezidumile mayelana nokushoda kwamanzi (kanye "nezimpi zamanzi"), mayelana nokufudumala kwembulunga yonke (futhi "oh, ukwesaba, ukwesaba, wonke umuntu uzoya emigedeni") iyathakazelisa kakhulu ukuyihlukanisa.
Iphutha elikhulu lazo zonke izibikezelo zesayensi noma zesayensi mbumbulu zinephutha elikhulu. Bahlehlisiwe.
Kwakukhona usosayensi onjalo (omuhle futhi ohlakaniphile) - uThomas Malthus. Ngokusekelwe kudatha anayo kusukela EMINYAKENI Edlule, wabeka phambili i-thesis ye-FUTURE CENTURIES ukuthi njengoba inani labantu likhula ngokushesha kunenani lokudla elidalwe ngumuntu, ke ... ukwehluleka kanye nenhlekelele. (Lokhu kufana kakhulu nokuthi "" lapho idatha engaziwa ishaywa indiva njengengekho.)
Ngisho noma uMalthus akenzanga lutho olunye ekuphileni kwakhe (futhi wakwenza), bekufanele simbonge ngaleli phutha lokubikezela kuphela. U-Smart (ngaphandle kokuhlekisa) uMalthus wayehlala ekuqaleni kwenguquko yezimboni. Ngisho, kunalokho, ngaphambi kokuba kuqale. Futhi wayengakwazi ukubona kusengaphambili ukufika kogandaganda, noma umanyolo, noma ukulawulwa kwezinambuzane, noma izindlela zofuzo zokwandisa inani lokudla. Ngaphambi kweMalthus, amakhulu eminyaka nezinkulungwane zeminyaka abantu babelima ngamahhashi futhi bavundiswa ngomquba.
Kodwa-ke ... inqubekelaphambili yesayensi yayiyi (futhi ikhona) futhi ukubikezela kukaMalthus kwabonakala kunephutha, nakuba ama-echo abo asadumile phakathi "kwengxenye yabantu abangafundile." Nokho, njengombono wokuthi iLanga lizungeza uMhlaba.
Okuhlekisayo ukuthi zonke izibikezelo ezilandelayo ze-apocalyptic zososayensi, izazi-mbumbulu kanye nezazi zemvelo benza iphutha elifanayo. Abayicabangeli i-vector yentuthuko yesayensi nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe.
Kunzima ukubasola ngalokhu, ngoba lona umbono wabo. Kodwa umuntu angasolwa kalula ngokushaya i-hysteria, ecishe iqhathaniswe nesiyaluyalu senkolo. Futhi ama-hysterics ngokusobala awahambisani nososayensi.
Kungani abantu abafundile, abazi “ngephutha likaMalthus” futhi babone inqubekelaphambili yesayensi nezobuchwepheshe yeminyaka eyikhulu edlule, kufanele bathuthukise ama-hysterics? Ngayiphi inhloso izazi zezemvelo zinamahloni? Yini ebangela ukubikezela kwabo, ngaphandle kodaba lokuthola isabelomali se-hysteria elandelayo noma "isinxephezelo" embonini?
Ngakho. Ekhulwini lama-20, kwabikezelwa ukuwohloka kwamaminerali, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, nokuntuleka kwamanzi. Zonke lezi zibikezelo zethulwa njenge-apocalypse.
Yebo ... mayelana namaminerali, i-apocalypse eyayihlelelwe i-1970 ... izibikezelo azibange zisagcwaliseka. Konke ngenxa “yephutha lesikhathi esidlule” elalisezibalo zikaMalthus. Okokuqala, amadiphozithi amasha atholwa futhi athuthukiswa, kwasungulwa izindlela ezintsha zokukhipha, futhi kwasungulwa nobuchwepheshe bokulondoloza amandla. Futhi namuhla kusobala ukuthi kunezindawo zokugcinwa kwezimbiwa eziningi kunalokho abantu abazodinga ... ngoba badinga kancane kancane. Amalambu okukhanya adla ugesi omncane kakhulu, amakhaya nezimboni ziya konga ugesi, futhi ezinye izindlela zokukhiqiza amandla ziyathuthukiswa (ilanga, umoya, ulwandle, njll.). Imfucuza ithunyelwa ukuthi igaywe kabusha.
Eqinisweni, lokhu kukodwa kunganele ukukhansela i-apocalypse yesimo sezulu. Kodwa lokhu akukenzeki. Futhi lokhu naphezu kokuthi isimo sezulu eMhlabeni sishintshile izikhathi eziningi, kuya ngezinga elikhulu kakhulu endaweni yoMhlaba ehlobene neLanga, umsebenzi welanga, imisinga yolwandle, ukunyakaza kwamapuleti e-lithospheric, kanye nomsebenzi we-volcanic. Umsebenzi womuntu, uma uqhathaniswa nala mandla, umane nje awusho lutho. Yebo, umuntu ube nomthelela omubi kakhulu emvelweni eminyakeni engamakhulu amabili edlule (nokho-ke, izingwadule eziningi eMpumalanga Ephakathi nazo zavela ngenxa yezenzo ezimbi zabantu basendulo). Nokho... lokhu kungabibikho kuhlotshaniswa nomthombo wamandla, futhi manje kuyashintsha. Futhi lokhu kukhulunywe ngenhla.
Ngakho-ke yini engaba hlakaniphile? Ingabe kufanele sisebenzise imali ekuthuthukisweni kososayensi besimo sezulu kanye nezazi zemvelo, noma ingabe kungaba usizo nakakhulu ukwakha izitshalo zamandla elanga noma zomoya eziningana ngale mali, sixhase ukuguqulwa kwezimboni kanye nabantu abavela ezinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi ukuya ezimotweni zikagesi kanye nezimoto zikagesi? Kodwa-ke, khona-ke "ama-hysterics emvelo" ngeke athole imali.
Isiphetho. Abanandaba nesimo sezulu nhlobo. Banentshisekelo yokuxhasa ngezimali.
Ngakho-ke, isibonelo, u-Elon Musk wenza okuningi kakhulu ukuze anciphise ukulimala kwemvelo kusuka emisebenzini yabantu kunabo bonke abashicileli bemvelo abahlangene kanye nama-hysterics abaye bawajoyina.
I-apocalypse yemfashini yakamuva isemanzini. Futhi ngeke kwenzeke futhi. Futhi isizathu sifana nse. Ukukhiqiza, ukuhlanzeka ngoba kunenzuzo enkulu, kuzongcolisa amanzi kancane, amandla azovela emithonjeni ehlanzekile, izindawo zokuhlanza zizokwenziwa zesimanjemanje, kuzothuthukiswa nobuchwepheshe okonga amanzi (ngoba kunenzuzo), kuzofakwa imishini ekhethekile ezindaweni ezomile. eyenza amanzi okuphuza emoyeni, ezindaweni ezisogwini, njll. Ukukhipha usawoti emanzini kanye nokuhlanzwa nge-osmosis ehlehlayo, njll. kuzosetshenziswa ezindaweni... futhi i-apocalypse ngeke iphinde yenzeke.
Isiphetho. Uma ungatholi i-hysterical, kodwa ucabange futhi uxazulule inkinga, khona-ke kuyoba namandla okwanele, amanzi, ukudla, umhlaba, futhi ngokujwayelekile konke kuwo wonke umuntu. Futhi kusazoba nokunye. Nemvelo nayo izohlanzeka. Ngokuvamile, "konke kuzohamba kahle."
Kuwo wonke umuntu ofunde kwaze kwaba sekupheleni - “Ngiyabonga kakhulu.”
Imifanekiso: .
PS Bafundi abathandekayo, ngiyanicela ukuba nikhumbule ukuthi “Isitayela se-polemic sibaluleke kakhulu kunesihloko se-polemic. Izinto ziyashintsha, kodwa isitayela sidala impucuko.” (Grigory Pomerantz). Uma ngingaphendulanga ukuphawula kwakho, khona-ke kukhona okungalungile ngesitayela se-polemic yakho.
PS 2. Ngiyaxolisa kuwo wonke umuntu obhale ukuphawula okunengqondo, kodwa angizange ngiphendule. Uma usafuna ukuthola impendulo futhi nixoxe ngesihloko, ungangibhalela umlayezo oyimfihlo. Ngiyabaphendula.
PS 3. Ngeke ngize ngiphawule ngempikiswano emayelana “nobunye bezibonelo” njengokuqagela, ngoba esihlokweni esivele sikhulu izibonelo ezengeziwe ngeke zikholise abagxeki abathembele kumpikiswano “yobunye”, njengoba nje bengaqinisekanga. ngenani elikhulu lezibonelo esihlokweni esithi “"noma inqwaba yezibonelo ezinikezwe encwadini ngeke zikholise"(landela isixhumanisi - isifinyezo esifushane kanye nenguqulo ye-elekthronikhi ukuze ilandwe), nakuba ngemuva kwalezi nqwaba kunamakhulu nezinkulungwane zezibonelo ezivela emisebenzini yosomnotho abadumile abashiwo encwadini.
PS 4. Sicela uxoxe ngezimpikiswano zikaSteven Levitt naye mathupha, hhayi nombhali wesihloko. Imininingwane yokuxhumana iyatholakala kuwebhusayithi yeNyuvesi yaseChicago. Uphinde anikeze izimpikiswano eziningi ezivuna umbono wakhe encwadini yesayensi edumile ethi "Superfreakonomics".
Source: www.habr.com
