U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Ukuqokwa: Ukuze kuthuthukiswe ithiyori yezinkontileka ku-neoclassical economics. Isiqondiso se-neoclassical sisikisela ukuhlakanipha kwama-ejenti ezomnotho, sisebenzisa kabanzi ithiyori yokulingana kwezomnotho kanye nethiyori yegeyimu.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Oliver Hart kanye Bengt Holmström.

Inkontileka. Yini? Ngingumqashi, nginezisebenzi ezimbalwa, ngiyazitshela ukuthi iholo labo lizohlelwa kanjani. Kuziphi izimo futhi bazokwamukela ini. Lezi zimo zingabandakanya ukuziphatha kozakwabo.

Ngizonikeza izibonelo ezinhlanu. Ezintathu zazo zibonisa indlela umzamo wokungenela owaholela ngayo ekubeni isimo sibe sibi.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

1. Abafundi bawela umgwaqo ezindaweni ezahlukene. Izimoto zehliswe isivinini, abafundi bagijima banqamula, izimoto zazihlelekile ngandlela thize. Isiphithiphithi, kodwa konke kuhamba kahle, impilo iyaqhubeka.

Eminyakeni embalwa edlule, kwatholakala isimemezelo sokuthi kwakudingekile ukuhlela indawo eyodwa yokuwela abahamba ngezinyawo. Engxenyeni yomgwaqo engamamitha angama-200-300. Kukhona uthango nxazonke futhi bonke abafundi baya kuleli phasishi elilodwa. Ngenxa yalokho, abafundi bavimba ngokuphelele ithrafikhi kusuka ku-25-8 kuya ku-45-9 imizuzu engama-10. Ayikho imoto engadlula. Isibonelo esijwayelekile "senkontileka enegetive".

2. Angikasitholi isiqinisekiso esiqinisekile. I-Factoid, into wonke umuntu ayazi njengeqiniso, kodwa empeleni, ingase ingabi naso isiqinisekiso.

Ezweni elisempumalanga waqala ukulwa namagundane. Baqala ukukhokhela igundane elibulewe (“izinhlamvu zemali eziyi-10”). Khona-ke konke kucacile, wonke umuntu washiya ibhizinisi lakhe futhi waqala ukuzala amagundane. (Bamemeza abebethamele ukuthi lesi sigameko senzeke eNdiya ngezimfezi (Umphumela we-cobra).)

3. Kube nezindali ezimbili zokuthengiswa kwamabhendi efrikhwensi ephathwayo, eNgilandi naseSwitzerland. E-England, lolu hlelo lwaluholwa nguRoger Myerson, owahlomula iNobel. Uyalele ukuthi izindleko zenkontileka zingamaphawundi angama-600 kumuntu ngamunye oyiNgisi. Futhi eSwitzerland yahluleka ngokuphelele endalini. Bakha uzungu futhi bathola ama-franc angama-20 umuntu ngamunye.

4. Angikwazi ukukhuluma ngingakhali, kodwa izinyembezi sezize zaphela. I-USE ichithe imfundo yesikole. Kwacatshangelwa ukulwa nenkohlakalo, ukuze yonke into ihambe kahle futhi ilungile. Ukuthi konke kuphele kanjani, ngingasho ukuthi ezikoleni eziningi, ngaphandle kwalezo ezihamba phambili, kukhona ukuqeqeshwa kwe-Unified State Examination, kuyamiswa izifundo, nokuqeqesha kuyaqhubeka. Othisha batshelwa ngokuqondile ukuthi: “Iholo lakho nokuba khona kwakho esikoleni kuncike endleleni abafundi bakho abaphumelela ngayo ezivivinyweni.”

Kuyafana ngezindatshana kanye nesayensi yesayensi.

5. Inqubomgomo yentela. Kunezibonelo eziningi eziphumelelayo neziningi ezingaphumeleli. Iningi lombiko lizogxila kulolu daba.

Umklamo we-Mechanism

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Ngabona amaqembu amaningi ahlukene okuqwala izintaba, kuhlanganise namakhulu - 30-40-50 abantu. Ngenqubo ehlelwe kahle, lena iyunithi yokulwa enjalo, iphila njengesidalwa esisodwa. Wonke umuntu unendima yakhe, umsebenzi wakhe. Futhi kwezinye izindawo - ukungcola okukhululekile.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Indlela yokuxazulula inkinga yokulawula, uma kukhona abalawuli abambalwa kakhulu?

Le nkinga ivame ukwenzeka ngezindlela ezahlukene. Akukaze kuxazululwe ngempumelelo ngaso sonke isikhathi.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Isibonelo.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Kukhona indlela ehamba ngaphansi onoshintsho oluya ezitimeleni. Ama-turntile angama-20 kanye nonogada oyedwa. Futhi kusukela kulolu hlangothi, abantu abangu-10 ngetshe elilodwa baminyene ekhoneni. Isitimela siyafika futhi wonke umuntu, njengokungathi ulindelwe, wawa. Unogada ubamba eyodwa, kodwa abanye bazogijima. Uma sibheka lesi simo ngombono wethiyori yegeyimu, khona-ke lesi yisimo lapho kunezimo ezimbili ezihluke ngokuphelele zokulingana.

Kokunye, akekho ohambayo futhi wonke umuntu uyazi ukuthi akekho ohambayo, akekho ozamayo, lesi yisimo esizimele. Ibhalansi, wonke umuntu wenza into "elungile". Futhi indoda eyodwa ivimbela sonke isixuku.

Kodwa kukhona enye ibhalansi. Wonke umuntu uyagijima. Uma ukholwa ukuthi wonke umuntu uyasebenza, khona-ke amathuba okuthi uzothwetshulwa angu-1/15, ungathatha ithuba. Ukuba nezinketho ezimbili kuyinselelo enkulu kumathiyori wegeyimu. Mhlawumbe uhhafu wethiyori yomdlalo uzinikele ekuphatheni izimo ezinjalo. Indlela yokubeka umcabango ebuchosheni bonogwaja ukuze besabe "ukudlula"?

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Lena indawo ka-John Nash. Ufakazele i-theoem evamile kakhulu yokuba khona kokulingana emidlalweni enezixazululo ezixhumene. Lapho umphumela awuncikile ezinqumweni zakho kuphela, kodwa nasezinqumweni zabo bonke abanye ababambiqhaza.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Ezinye izibonelo zokulinganisa.

Yini Деньги? Unepheshana eliyinqaba ephaketheni lakho. Usebenzile futhi kunezinye zalezi zingcezu zamaphepha (izinombolo ku-akhawunti). Ngokwabo azisho lutho. Ungabasa umlilo ufudumale. Kodwa ukholwa ukuthi zisho okuthize. Uyazi ukuthi uzoya esitolo futhi bazokwamukelwa. Owamukelayo ukholwa ukuthi naye uyakukwamukela kuye. Inkolelo evamile yokuthi lezi zingcezu zephepha zinenani ibhalansi yezenhlalakahle ukuthi, ngezikhathi ezithile, ibhujiswa lapho i-hyperinflation ivela. Khona-ke kusukela esimweni lapho wonke umuntu ekholelwa emalini, kuphenduka isimo lapho wonke umuntu engakholelwa emalini.

Ithrafikhi yesokudla nesobunxele. Amanye amazwe ahlukile, kodwa ulandela le mithetho.

Kungani abantu beya ku-physics nobuchwepheshe? Ngoba kukhona ukuzethemba ukuthi bafundisa kahle lapho. Kunokuzethemba ukuthi nabanye abafundi abaqinile bazoya khona. Ake ucabange nje ukuthi inkampani ethile yezingane zesikole ezinamandla kakhulu ivuma ngokuzumayo futhi yaya eyunivesithi ethile ebuthakathaka. Uzoba namandla ngokushesha.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Unogada angayisusa kanjani ibhalansi embi?

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Kuyadingeka ukubala ngokuzwakalayo bonke onogwaja futhi wazise ukuthi kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ubani ogxumayo, bazobamba ubuncane ngenombolo.

Ake sithi inkampani ethile inqume ukugxuma. Khona-ke onenombolo ephansi uyazi kahle ukuthi uzobanjwa futhi ngeke agxume. Ukulingana yilapho siqagela kahle izenzo zabanye abantu nezenzo zethu, abanye abaziqagela ngathi. Esimweni "sokufaka kuhlu ngokuzwakalayo", ukulingana kunempahla eyengeziwe yokuzinza. Alizwani "nokubambisana/ukubambisana". Okungukuthi, kule bhalansi akunakwenzeka ngisho nokuvuma ukuthi ngesikhathi esifanayo inani elithile labantu lizoshintsha ukuziphatha kwabo ukuze ngenxa yalokho wonke umuntu azizwe engcono.

Uma wenza imithetho eyinkimbinkimbi futhi inkampani ayikwazi ukuyiqonda, awukwazi ukulindela ukuthi baziphathe ngokuvumelana nokulingana kwe-Nash. Bazokwenza ukukhetha okungahleliwe.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Ake sicabange ukuthi asivunyelwe (ukuvinjelwa kwesikhungo) "ukubhala ngokuzwakalayo". Amasu ethu kufanele alingane (angaziwa). Kodwa singabhekisela "kuhlamvu lwemali". Uma okuthile kuwa - ngenza into eyodwa, uma enye iwa - ngenza okwesibili.

Umsebenzi ongathi sína. Yakhiwe futhi yafundwa eminyakeni engu-20 edlule. Akekho owakhokha intela. Sizamile ukuhlela lolu hlelo ngale ndlela nalaphaya. Inzuzo engekho, ukufumbathisa… Iziphathimandla zentela zaphendukela esikhungweni engisebenza kuso kancane, kumphathi wami. Sisonke sakhe inkinga ngendlela elandelayo. Kunezimboni n, ngayinye inomhloli wayo, kodwa kwezinye % amacala uyasebenzisana. % wonke umuntu uyazikhethela. x1, x2…xn.
x=0 kusho ukuthi umhloli unqume ukwethembeka. x=1 uthatha izifumbathiso kuzo zonke izimo.

Ama-X angabonwa ngezimpawu ezingaqondile, kodwa asikwazi ukuwasebenzisa enkantolo. Ngokusekelwe kulolu lwazi, udinga ukwakha isu lokuqinisekisa.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Kungenziwa lula eqinisweni lokuthi kunesheke elilodwa kuphela, kodwa ngenhlawulo enkulu kakhulu. Futhi sinikeza amathuba kulokhu kuhlolwa. Amathuba okuthi ngize kuwe yilokhu, futhi kuwe yilokhu. Futhi lena imisebenzi evela ku-x. Futhi isamba angeqi eyodwa. Kuyiqiniso ngokwecebo, kwezinye izimo ukungahloli nhlobo futhi ubathembise lokhu.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

p iwumdwebo wekhyubhu elingu-n-dimensional kusethi yakho konke ukusabalalisa okungenzeka. Kudingekile ukubhalisa ama-winnings abo, ukuqonda ukuthi omunye wabo uzothola malini lapho enquma ukuthi yimaphi% amacala okufanele athathe ukufumbathisa.

I-bi "iwumfutho wokugwazisa" wemboni (uma uthatha ukufumbathisa esikhundleni sentela yonke indawo).

Inhlawulo isuswa emathubeni ezofika ngawo. Kusuka kuphi? Okokuqala, udinga ukuyihlola. Kodwa akugcini lapho, isheke lingangena ecaleni lapho yonke into ihlanzekile. Ifomula elula, kodwa inkimbinkimbi ingcwatshwe ku-"p".

Sine slang engatholakali kwamanye amagatsha ezibalo: xi. Leli iqoqo lakho konke okuguquguqukayo ngaphandle kweyami. Lezi yizinqumo ezenziwa yiwo wonke umuntu. Lona umthwalo wemfanelo ohlangene.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Manje umbuzo uthi: Imuphi umqondo wokulingana esicabanga ukuthi bayoba khona?

Ngama-90s, kwakukhona ukubhoboza okuningi. Abahleli besheke bamemezele kuwo wonke umuntu ukuthi abazojeziswa kakhulu bazojeziswa. Uzovivinywa.

Sizobukeka kanjani isibikezelo salesi simo?

Abantu abenze imithetho bacabanga ukuthi kuzoba nokusebenzisana okuzimele. Okuwukuphela kokulinganisa wonke ama-zero. Futhi empilweni yangempela kwaba 100% Kungani?

Impendulo iwukuthi ibhalansi ayizinzile ekusebenzisaneni.

Saqala ukunwaya amathenisi ethu.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Isibonelo esiphambili umthwalo womuntu ngamunye. Ake sicabange ngesimo esibi sokuthi inhlawulo yomthetho incane kunemali yokufumbathisa. Uma umhloli ehlala embonini “enamafutha” kangangokuthi imali yakhe yokufumbathisa ingaphezu kwenhlawulo, ingabe kukhona okungenziwa? Inhlawulo ayikwazi ukuthathwa ngaphezu kokukodwa.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Ngiyazi ukuthi umhloli uzokhokha futhi uzoba mnyama. Kodwa ngingathembisa ukuthi ngeke ngikuhlole nakancane uma izinga lakho lenkohlakalo lingekho ngaphezu kuka-30%. Yini enye inzuzo?

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Okwakudala bese kunayo.

Kathathu izinga lenkohlakalo liyancipha.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

isimo abstract. 4 abantu. Ukugwazisa kungaphansi kwenhlawulo.

Uma uthembele kuzinkontileka ngazinye, ngeke “ubeke kuqanda” wonke umuntu. Kodwa ngingakwazi ukuletha wonke umuntu kuqanda ngesu lokuzibophezela ngokuhlanganyela.

Ngithumela ngokulinganayo isheke elinamathuba alinganayo hhayi kokuphezulu, kodwa kokungewona uziro. Wonke amasela anephesenti elingelona uziro - ngalinye lizothola isheke elinamathuba angu-1/4. Angiwashintshi ngisho amathuba kuye ngo-x.

Khona-ke akukho ukulingana ngaphandle kweziro. Futhi angeke kube khona ukuhlangana.

Futhi uma kungekho ukungqubuzana okucacile kuphela, kodwa futhi nokudluliselwa kwemali, khona-ke ithiyori yomdlalo ihluleka ngokuphelele. Kunobufakazi obuqinile.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Ikilasi lonke lamasu selithuthukisiwe, elisetshenziswa ngokulingana okuqinile kwe-Nash okungahlangani.

Sibeka amazinga amaningana okubekezelela inkohlakalo. I-z1 - izinga lokubekezelela ngokuphelele, okusele - izinga lokungabekezelelani liyakhula. Futhi kuleveli ngayinye inikezela ngamathuba okuqinisekisa. Ifomula ibukeka kanje:

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

I-λ1 - amathuba okuhlolwa ezingeni lokuqala lokubekezelelana - ihlukaniswe ngokulinganayo phakathi kwabo bonke abadlule, ngaphezu kwalokho, u-λ2 uhlukaniswe phakathi kwabo bonke abadlule umkhawulo wesibili, njalonjalo.

Ngafakazela le theorem elandelayo eminyakeni engu-15 edlule.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Leli su lasetshenziswa ngaphambi kwami, njengesu lokuhlukanisa izindleko.

U-Alexey Savvateev: Indlela yokulwa nenkohlakalo ngosizo lwezibalo (Umklomelo weNobel ku-Economics ka-2016)

Izinkontileka zibiza imali. Amaphethini wokusebenzisana aklanywe kahle angonga imali enkulu, kwesinye isikhathi. Ukonga isikhathi.

Isibopho esihlangene siyasebenza. Ukuhlanganisa umuntu eqenjini kuyaphumelela.

Njengoba ngenza umbiko eMnyangweni Wezangaphakathi.

Ngafika, kwakunamaphoyisa angaba ngu-40 ezigaba ezihlukene, alalela, abukana, ahlebeza, ngemva kwalokho induna yeza kimi yathi: “Aleksey, ngiyabonga, kuyathakazelisa ukulalela umuntu onothando. isayensi yakhe ... kodwa lokhu akuhlangene neqiniso. "

Izikhulu zaseRussia ezikhohlakele eziqashelwe ziziphatha ngendlela ehlukile kunezaseMelika ezibonwe ngokuhlolwa. Uyazi ukuthi yini umehluko? Umuntu waseRussia, lapho eqala ukufumbathisa, akaseyena umenzeli wezomnotho owandisa inzuzo yakhe ngokunengqondo. [Ihlombe]

Umuntu uqala ukugwazela kuze kube sekugcineni, akaxoxi lutho. Kumele abanjwe avalelwe ejele, yisayensi yonke leyo.

Спасибо.



Source: www.habr.com

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