Phakathi kwalabo abafunda lo mbhalo, yiqiniso, kukhona ochwepheshe abaningi. Futhi-ke, wonke umuntu uyazi kahle imikhakha yabo futhi unokuhlola okuhle kwamathemba obuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene kanye nentuthuko yabo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umlando ("ofundisa ukuthi awufundisi lutho") uyazi izibonelo eziningi lapho ochwepheshe benza izibikezelo ezihlukene ngokuzethemba futhi bageja umkhawulo omkhulu kakhulu:
- “Ucingo lunamaphutha amaningi kakhulu ukuze lubhekwe njengento yokuxhumana. Umshini awusizi ngalutho kithina,” kubhala ochwepheshe. , ngaleso sikhathi okuyinkampani enkulu yocingo ngo-1876.
- “Umsakazo awunalo ikusasa. Izindiza ezinzima kunomoya azinakwenzeka. I-X-ray izophenduka inkohliso,” usho kanje ngo-1899, futhi umuntu angenza ihlaya ngokuthi ososayensi baseBrithani babeyinyakazisa emuva ngekhulu le-XNUMX, kodwa sizobe silinganisa izinga lokushisa eKelvin isikhathi eside, futhi asikho isizathu sokungabaza ukuthi inkosi ehlonishwayo yayilungile. isazi sesayensi yemvelo.
- “Ubani ofuna ukuzwa abadlali bekhuluma?” kusho abakhulumayo , owasungula i-Warner Brothers ngo-1927, ongomunye wochwepheshe befilimu abahamba phambili ngaleso sikhathi.
- “Asikho isizathu sokuthi kungani umuntu edinga ikhompuyutha yasekhaya,” , umsunguli we-Digital Equipment Corporation ngo-1977, ngaphambi nje kokuthathwa kwamakhompyutha asekhaya...
- Kulezi zinsuku, akukho okushintshile: "Alikho ithuba lokuthi i-iPhone izothola isabelo esibalulekile semakethe," i-CEO ye-Microsoft ibhale e-USA Today. ngo-April 2007 ngaphambi kokukhuphuka okunqobayo kwama-smartphones.
Umuntu angahleka ngenjabulo ngalezi zibikezelo ukube inceku yakho ethobekile, ngokwesibonelo, ibingenzanga iphutha elikhulu ensimini yayo. Futhi ukube bengingabonanga ukuthi baningi kangakanani, ochwepheshe abaningi banephutha. Ngokuvamile, kukhona i-classic "lokhu akukaze kwenzeke ngaphambili, futhi nakhu futhi." Futhi futhi. Futhi futhi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ochwepheshe nochwepheshe ulahlwe amaphutha Ezimweni eziningi. Ikakhulukazi uma kuziwa kulezo zinqubo ze-exponential.
Oh he, lombukiso
Inkinga yokuqala ngezinqubo ze-exponential ukuthi nokwazi ukuthi zikhula ngokushesha kangakanani (ngesikhathi esifanayo amapharamitha abo ashintsha inani elifanayo lezikhathi), ezingeni lansuku zonke kunzima kakhulu ukucabanga ukukhula okunjalo. Isibonelo sakudala: uma siyisa isinyathelo esisodwa phambili, khona-ke ezinyathelweni ezingama-30 sizohamba ngamamitha angama-30, kepha uma isinyathelo ngasinye sikhula ngokukhula, khona-ke ezinyathelweni ezingama-30 sizozungeza imbulunga izikhathi ezingama-26 (“Izikhathi ezingamashumi amabili nesithupha, Karl!!! ”) eduze nenkabazwe:
Source:
Umbuzo wabahleli bohlelo: yikuphi okuqhubekayo esikuphakamisa amandla kulokhu?
ImpenduloI-constant ilingana no-2, i.e. ukuphinda kabili kuzo zonke izinyathelo.
Lapho inqubo ikhula ngokuphawulekayo, iphumela ezinguqukweni ezinkulu ezisheshayo ezibonakala ngokucacile ngeso lenyama. Isibonelo esihle kakhulu sinikezwa ngu . Ngo-1900, ku-Fifth Avenue eNew York, kwakunzima ukubona imoto eyodwa phakathi kwezinqola ezidonswa amahhashi:
Futhi eminyakeni eyi-13 kamuva, emgwaqeni ofanayo, awukwazi ukubona inqola eyodwa edonswa yihhashi phakathi kwezimoto:
Sibona isithombe esifanayo, isibonelo, ngama-smartphone. INokia, eyagibela igagasi elilodwa futhi yaba ngumholi isikhathi eside emkhawulweni obanzi, kodwa yangakwazi ukungena egagasini elilandelayo futhi yacishe yalahlekelwa imakethe ngaso leso sikhathi (bheka nabaholi bemakethe ngonyaka) ifundisa kakhulu.
Bonke ochwepheshe bekhompyutha bayazi , empeleni eyenzelwe ama-transistors futhi isibe yiqiniso iminyaka engu-40. Amanye ama-comrades ayenza ijwayele ukuvala amashubhu nemishini eyimishini futhi athi yasebenza iminyaka eyi-120. Kuyafaneleka ukukhombisa izinqubo ze-exponential ngesikali sesikali se-logarithmic, lapho ziba (cishe) zilandelana futhi kuyacaca ukuthi ukufana okunjalo kunelungelo lokuba khona:
Umthombo: Lokhu kanye namagrafu amabili alandelayo avela
Esikalini somugqa, ukukhula kubukeka kanjena:
Futhi lapha kancane kancane sisondela ekuqamekeleni kwesibili kwezinqubo ze-exponential. Uma ukukhula bekunjena iminyaka eyi-120, ingabe lokhu kusho ukuthi izinga lethu lokukhula lizohlala linjalo okungenani eminye iminyaka eyi-10?
Ngokwenzayo kuvela ukuthi cha. Ngendlela ehlanzekile, izinga lokukhula kwekhompyutha liye lehla iminyaka eminingana manje, okusivumela ukuthi sikhulume "ngokufa komthetho kaMoore":
Source:
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuyathakazelisa ukuthi leli jika alikwazi nje ukuqondisa, kodwa futhi likhuphuke ngamandla avuselelwe. Inceku yakho ethobekile . Yebo, kuzoba nezinye izibalo (ezingalungile zenethiwekhi ye-neural), kodwa ekugcineni, uma i-abacus engalungile kanye nezibali zokubala zemishini zandise isikali saya eminyakeni eyi-120, khona-ke ama-neural accelerator afanelekile lapho. Nokho, siyayehlisa.
Kubalulekile ukuqonda lokho ukukhula okunamandla kungase kume ngenxa yezizathu zobuchwepheshe, zomzimba, ezomnotho kanye nezenhlalo (uhlu aluphelele). Futhi lokhu kungukuqamekela kwesibili okukhulu kwezinqubo ze-exponential - ukubikezela kahle isikhathi lapho ijika liqala ukushiya i-exponential. Amaphutha kuzo zombili izinkomba avame kakhulu lapha.
Inani:
- Ukuqamekela kokuqala kokukhula okubonakalayo ukuthi inkomba ikhula ngokushesha okungalindelekile ngisho nakochwepheshe. Futhi ukubukela phansi i-exponential iphutha lendabuko eliphindaphindiwe kaningi. Njengoba ochwepheshe bangempela basho eminyakeni eyi-100 edlule: “Amathangi, madoda, ayimfashini, kodwa amahhashi angowaphakade!”
- Inkinga yesibili ngokukhula okunamandla ukuthi ngesikhathi esithile (ngezinye izikhathi ngemva kweminyaka engu-40 noma engu-120) kuyaphela, futhi akulula futhi ukubikezela ngokunembile ukuthi kuzophela nini. Futhi ngisho nomthetho kaMoore, lapho izintatheli eziningi zezobuchwepheshe zazishiya izinselo zazo, ekufeni kwakhe, . Futhi ngeke kubonakale kwanele!
Izinqubo ezibonisa ukwanda nokuthathwa kwezimakethe
Uma sikhuluma ngezinguquko ezibonakalayo ezisizungezile kanye nemakethe, kuyathakazelisa ukubona ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obuhlukene bunqobe kanjani imakethe. Kulula kakhulu ukwenza lokhu usebenzisa isibonelo sase-United States, lapho iminyaka engaphezu kwe-100 izinhlobo ezahlukene zezibalo zemakethe zigcinwe ngokunembile uma kuqhathaniswa:
Source:
Kuyathakazelisa kakhulu futhi kuyafundisa ukubona ukuthi isabelo samakhaya anezintambo ezinezintambo sikhula kanjani kancane kancane, bese sehla kakhulu ngekota eminyakeni edlule. . Ingxenye yezindlu ezinogesi nayo yakhula, kodwa yehla kancane kakhulu: abantu babengakakulungeli ukuyeka ugesi, ngisho nalapho imali ingekho eyanele. Futhi ukusabalala komsakazo wasekhaya akuzwakali neze inkinga enkulu yezomnotho; wonke umuntu wayenentshisekelo ezindabeni zakamuva. Futhi, ngokungafani nocingo, ugesi noma imoto, umsakazo awunazo izindleko zokusebenzisa. Ngendlela, ukukhuphuka kwezimoto zomuntu siqu, okwaphazanyiswa yi-Great Depression, kwabuyiselwa kuphela ngemva kweminyaka engu-20, izingcingo zasendlini zabuyiselwa ngemva kweminyaka eyi-10, nokufakwa kukagesi kwezindlu - ngemva kwe-5.
Kubonakala ngokucacile ukuthi ukusabalala kwama-air conditioners, ama-oven microwave, amakhompyutha nama-smartphone kwakushesha kakhulu kunokusakazwa kobuchwepheshe obusha ngaphambili. Ukusuka kwisabelo sika-10% siye ku-70%, ukukhula kuvame ukwenzeka eminyakeni eyi-10 nje kuphela. Ubuchwepheshe be-turn-of-the-century ngokuvamile buthatha iminyaka engaphezu kwengu-40 ukufeza ukukhula okufanayo. Izwa umehluko!
Kukhona okuhlekisayo kumbhali mathupha. Cabanga ukuthi imishini yokuwasha nezomiso zezingubo zikhule kanjani ngokuvumelana kusukela ngeminyaka yama-60s. Kuyahlekisa ukuthi lezi zakamuva cishe azikaziwa phakathi kwethu. Futhi uma e-USA, kusukela esikhathini esithile kuqhubeke, babevame ukuthengwa ngababili, izivakashi zethu zivame ukubuza lo mbuzo: "Kungani udinga imishini yokuwasha emibili?" Kufanele uphendule ngokujulile ukuthi owesibili ugodliwe, uma kwenzeka ephuka owokuqala.
Naka futhi isabelo esiwayo semishini yokuwasha. Ngaleso sikhathi, izindawo zokuhlanza izingubo zomphakathi zanda kakhulu, lapho wawungeza khona, ulayishe izingubo emshinini, uwashe futhi uhambe. Kushibhile. Izinto ezifanayo zisavame kakhulu e-United States. Lesi isibonelo sesimo lapho imodeli yebhizinisi yemakethe ethile ishintsha izinga lokungena lobuchwepheshe kanye nesakhiwo sokuthengisa (imishini ebizayo yokuvikela ukucekelwa phansi kwempahla idayisa kangcono).
Ukusheshisa kwezinqubo kubonakala ikakhulukazi eminyakeni yamuva, lapho ukungena kwenqwaba yobuchwepheshe kwaba "ngokushesha" ngezindinganiso zasekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-20 (ngeminyaka engu-5-7):
Source: (isithombe esikusixhumanisi siyasebenzisana!)
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukukhuphuka okusheshayo kobuchwepheshe obunye kuvame ukuwa kwesinye. Ukunyuka komsakazo kwakusho ingcindezi emakethe yamaphephandaba, ukukhuphuka kwamahhavini ama-microwave kunciphisa isidingo samahhavini egesi, njll. Ngezinye izikhathi ukuncintisana kwakuqondile kakhulu, ngokwesibonelo, ukwanda kwamarekhodi amakhasethi kwanciphisa ngokuphawulekayo isidingo samarekhodi e-vinyl, futhi ukwanda kwama-CD kwanciphisa isidingo samakhasethi. Futhi isifufula sababulala bonke ngokukhula kokusatshalaliswa komculo wedijithali, imali engenayo yezimboni yehle izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezingu-2 (igrafu izungezwe uhlaka olumnyama oludabukisayo):
Source:
Ngokufanayo, inani lezithombe ezithathwe likhula ngokuphawulekayo, ngaphezu kwalokho, muva nje ngokushintshela kudijithali, izinga lokukhula liye landa kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, "ukufa" kwezithombe ze-analogue kwaba "ngokuphazima kweso" ngezindinganiso zomlando:
Source:
Igcwele idrama , eyasungula ngokuxakayo ikhamera yedijithali futhi yageja ukukhula okuphawulekayo kokuthwebula izithombe zedijithali, ifundisa kakhulu. Kodwa okubalulekile okufundiswa umlando wukuthi awufundisi lutho. Ngakho-ke, isimo sizoziphinda futhi kaningi. Uma ukholelwa izibalo - nge ukusheshisa.
Inani:
- Inzuzo enkulu yokubikezela ingatholwa ngokutadisha ukusheshisa nokwehla kwezimakethe eminyakeni eyi-100 edlule.
- Izinga lokuqamba izinto ezintsha likhuphuka ngokwesilinganiso, okusho ukuthi inani lezibikezelo ezingamanga lizokhula. Qaphela…
Asiqhubeke sizilolonge
Wena-ke, ucabanga ukuthi konke lokhu kulula, kuyaqondakala, futhi, ngokuvamile, ukucabangela konke lokhu ezibikezelweni akunzima kakhulu. Uyize... Manje ubumnandi sebuqala... Bopha?
Muva nje, u-Igor Sechin, umqondisi omkhulu weRosneft, ukhulume eSigcawini Sezomnotho Samazwe Ngamazwe SaseSt. Petersburg, lapho, ikakhulukazi, athi: “" Ingabe ukhona ongabaza ukuthi uSechin unguchwepheshe emkhakheni wakhe? Ngicabanga ukuthi cha.
Ngasikhathi sinye, eminyakeni yamuva nje, isabelo samandla ahlukile sikhule cishe ngo-1% ngonyaka, futhi ukukhula kwesabelo kuye kwashesha:
Source: (le ndlela yokubala yakhethwa - ngaphandle kwamandla amakhulu amanzi, njengoba iphumela ku-12%) wamanje.
Futhi-ke - inkinga ebangeni lesi-3. Kukhona inani ukuthi ngo-2017 lalilingana no-12% futhi likhula ngo-1% ngonyaka. Izofinyelela ku-16% ngamuphi unyaka? Ngo-2040? Ucabange kahle, mngane wami omncane? Qaphela ukuthi ngokuphendula ngokuthi “ngo-2021” senza iphutha lakudala lokuqagela ngomugqa. Kunengqondo kakhulu ukucabangela ubunjalo benqubo futhi wenze izibikezelo ezintathu zakudala:
- "ithemba" uma kubhekwa ukusheshisa kwentuthuko,
- “isilinganiso” - sisekelwe embonweni wokuthi izinga lokukhula lizofana nonyaka ongcono kakhulu eminyakeni engu-5 edlule
- kanye “nokuphelelwa ithemba” - okusekelwe embonweni wokuthi izinga lokukhula lizoba ngokwesilinganiso lifane nonyaka omubi kakhulu kule minyaka emihlanu edlule.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngisho nangokwesilinganiso sokubikezela, i-16.1% izotholakala kakade ngo-2020, i.e. ngonyaka ozayo:
Umthombo: izibalo zombhali
Ukuze uthole ukuqonda okungcono (kwezinqubo ze-exponential), sethula amagrafu afanayo esikalini se-logarithmic:
Bakhombisa ukuthi isimo esijwayelekile siwumkhuba impela, noma usibheka kusukela ngo-2007. Sekukonke, inani elibikezelwe ngo-2040 cishe lizozuzwa ngonyaka ozayo, noma okungenani ngonyaka.
Ukukhuluma iqiniso, uSechin akuyena yedwa “onephutha” ngale ndlela. Isibonelo, izisebenzi zikawoyela ze-BP (British Petroleum) zenza isibikezelo saminyaka yonke, futhi sezivele zinyathelwa phansi ukuthi, njengoba sekuyiminyaka zibikezela, ngokuphindaphindiwe azikunaki ukuchayeka kwenqubo (“Derivative? Cha, awukezwa!”). Ngakho-ke, kuye kwadingeka bakhuphule isibikezelo sabo minyaka yonke iminyaka eminingi:
Source:
Eduze nezibikezelo ze-Sechin (amaqembu anezisebenzi zamafutha anzima, hlola amapayipi empandeni yesigaba saseRussia sesayithi). Bona, ngokuyisisekelo, abacabangi ubunjalo be-exponential benqubo, okuholela uhlelo lwephutha lobukhulu iminyaka engu-7, futhi baphinda leli phutha ngokuhlelekile:
Source: (isizinda ngokwaso , kuhle kakhulu)
Izibikezelo zabo zibukeka zihlekisa ikakhulukazi ngedatha yakamuva (ufunde futhi "kahle, ekugcineni bazoma nini!!!" kumajika abo?):
Source:
Lokhu kuphambene ngempela, kodwa uma ubikezela izinqubo eziningi, kuphumelela kakhulu ukucabangela hhayi isibikezelo somugqa senkathi yangaphambilini futhi hhayi isibikezelo somugqa esisekelwe kokuphuma kokunye kwamanje, kodwa uguquko lwejubane lenqubo. Lokhu kunikeza umphumela onembe kakhulu wezinqubo ezifanayo:
Source:
Ezincwadini zolimi lwesiNgisi, ikakhulukazi kuma-analytics ebhizinisi, isifinyezo se-CAGR sisetshenziswa njalo ( - isixhumanisi sinikezwe i-wiki yolimi lwesiNgisi, futhi kuyisici ukuthi akukho sihloko esihambisanayo ku-Wikipedia yolimi lwesiRashiya). I-CAGR ingahunyushwa ngokuthi “izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka”. Ibalwa ngokuvumelana nefomula
kuphi t0 - unyaka wokuqala, tn - unyaka wokuphela, futhi I-V(t) - inani lepharamitha, okungenzeka ukuthi liyashintsha ngokuvumelana nomthetho we-exponential. Inani livezwa njengephesenti futhi lisho ukuthi mangaki amaphesenti enani elithile (ngokuvamile imakethe ethile) elikhula phakathi nonyaka.
Kunezibonelo eziningi ku-inthanethi zendlela yokubala i-CAGR, isibonelo, ku-Google Amadokhumenti naku-Excel:
- (umbhalo wesiRashiya ofanelekile )
Masiqhube i-master class emfushane ngaphansi kwesiqubulo esithi "asisize i-Sechin", sithatha idatha yenkampani yamafutha i-BP (njengesilinganiso esiphansi). Kulabo abanentshisekelo, idatha ngokwayo itholakala , ungazikopishela wena futhi ubale ngendlela ehlukile. Emhlabeni jikelele, isizukulwane esivuselelekayo sikhula ngokushesha:
Umthombo: Lapha nangaphezulu kumagrafu amnyama, izibalo zombhali
Isikali siyi-logarithmic, futhi kusobala ukuthi zonke izifunda zinokukhula okubonakalayo (lokhu kubalulekile!), eziningi ezinokusheshisa okubonakalayo. Njengoba bekulindelekile, abaholi yiChina nomakhelwane bayo, sebedlule eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi eyandulela eyandulela - eMpumalanga Ephakathi - ingenye yezifunda ezikhiqiza uwoyela kakhulu emhlabeni, futhi ine-CAGR ephakeme kakhulu kuzo zonke (ama-44% kule minyaka engu-5 edlule (!)). Akumangazi ukubona i-oda lokukhuphuka kwenani leminyaka engu-6, futhi ukwahlulela ngezitatimende zezikhulu zabo, bazoqhubeka ngendlela efanayo. Lowo owayengungqongqoshe kawoyela waseSaudi Arabia ngokuhlakanipha waxwayisa ozakwabo be-OPEC emuva ngo-2000: “Inkathi Yamatshe ayizange iphele ngoba ayengasekho amatshe,” futhi kubonakala sengathi bawucabangela lo mqondo ohlakaniphile eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule. I-CIS (CIS), njengoba sibona, isendaweni yokugcina. Izinga lokukhula lihle impela.
I-CAGR ingabalwa ngezindlela ezahlukene. Isibonelo, asakhe i-CAGR yonyaka ngamunye kusukela ngo-1965, iminyaka engu-5 edlule kanye neminyaka eyi-10 edlule. Uzothola lesi sithombe esithokozisayo (ingqikithi yomhlaba):
Kungabonakala ngokucacile ukuthi, ngokwesilinganiso, ukukhula komchazi kwashesha kwase kwehla. I-“Moskovsky Komsomolets” kanye neminye imithombo yezindaba ephuzi kuleli cala ngokuvamile ibhala into efana nokuthi “Umnotho waseShayina uyehla,” okusho ukuthi “amazinga okukhula amangalisayo omnotho waseShayina ayehla” futhi ngobuhlakani awasho lutho mayelana neqiniso lokuthi wehlisa isivinini. ijubane elingaka ukuthi abanye bangasho iphupho kuphela. Konke kuyefana kakhulu lapha.
Ake sizame ukubikezela ukukhiqizwa ngo-2018 ngokusekelwe kudatha kuze kufike ku-2010, sithatha i-CAGR'1965, i-CAGR'10Y, i-CAGR'5Y kanye nesibikezelo esiqondile esisuka ku-2010 sihlobene no-2009 futhi sihlobene no-2006. Sithola isithombe esilandelayo:
| Linear'1Y | Linear'4Y | I-CAGR'1965 | I-CAGR'10Y | I-CAGR'5Y | |
| Ukukhiqizwa okuvuselelekayo ngo-2018, isibikezelo esisekelwe kudatha efika ku-2010 | 1697 | 1442 | 1465 | 2035 | 2429 |
| Isimo sengqondo sokwangempela ngo-2018 | 0,68 | 0,58 | 0,59 | 0,82 | 0,98 |
| Iphutha lesibikezelo | 32% | 42% | 41% | 18% | 2% |
Amaphuzu esici - akukho kwezibikezelo ezivele zaba nethemba elikhulu, i.e. ukudubula phansi yonke indawo. Esimeni esinethemba elikhulu nge-CAGR ka-15,7%, ukushoda kube ngama-2%. Izibikezelo zomugqa zinikeze iphutha lika-30-40% (inkathi yathathwa ngokukhethekile lapho, ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga lokukhula, iphutha lazo libe lincane). Ngeshwa, kwakungenakwenzeka ukwengeza imodeli kaSechin, ngoba akunakwenzeka ukubuyisela ifomula yakhe.
Njengomsebenzi wasekhaya, zama ukwenza i-backcasting ngokudlala ngama-CAGR ahlukene. Isiphetho sizoba sobala: izinqubo ze-exponential zibikezelwa kangcono ngamamodeli we-exponential.
Futhi njenge-cherry ekhekheni, nasi isibikezelo esivela kuma-BP afanayo, okuthi ("Isixwayiso, ochwepheshe bayasebenza!") i-exponent ivumela ukukhula komugqa esibikezelweni:
Source:
Sicela uqaphele ukuthi awawabali nhlobo amandla asetshenziswa ngamanzi, ahlukaniswa njengomthombo wamandla avuselelekayo wakudala. Ngakho-ke, isilinganiso sabo sihle kakhulu kunesikaSechin, futhi banikeza u-12% kuphela ngo-2020. Kepha noma ngabe isisekelo sehlisiwe futhi ukukhula okubonakalayo kuyeka ngo-2020, ngo-2040 banesabelo esingama-29%. Akubukeki nhlobo njenge-16% ka-Sechin... Inkinga ethile nje...
Kuyacaca ukuthi uSechin ungumuntu ohlakaniphile. Ngiyisazi sezibalo esisetshenziswa ngokomsebenzi, hhayi unjiniyela wamandla, ngakho-ke angikwazi ukunikeza impendulo efanelekayo embuzweni omayelana nesizathu sephutha elibi kangaka esibikezelweni sika-Sechin. Okungenzeka ukuthi, iqiniso liwukuthi lesi simo sinuka ngempela njengokwehla kwamanani kawoyela. Futhi (ongazange alalele le ngoma kaSemyon Slepakov, bheka) ngesizathu esingacacile, kukhona izinga lokushintshanisa elizinzile lokuthengiswa kwamafutha angcolile phesheya, hhayi imikhiqizo ye-petroleum ehlungiwe. Futhi uma uhlanekezela kakhulu isibikezelo, khona-ke lokhu kuqeda (isikhashana, umuntu kufanele acabange) imibuzo engathandeki. Kodwa njengesazi sezibalo, ngingathanda ukubona iphutha elihlelekile okungenani ezingeni labanumzane abavela ku-BP abangazange bezwe ngokuphuma kokunye. Anginandaba, ngisemkhunjini ofanayo.
Inani:
- Njengoba zonke izikhulu zazi, ezimweni zempi inani le-π engaguquki (isilinganiso somjikelezo wendilinga kuya kububanzi bayo) sifinyelela ku-4, futhi ezimweni ezikhethekile - kufika ku-5. Ngakho-ke, lapho kudingekile ngempela, isibikezelo ochwepheshe babonisa YILUPHI izindinganiso ezidingwa iziphathimandla. Kutuswa ukukhumbula lokhu.
- Izinqubo ze-Exponential zibikezelwa kangcono kusetshenziswa izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka, noma i-CAGR.
- Isibikezelo sika-Sechin e-St. Petersburg International Economic Forum singabhekwa njengezinga elidlulele lokungahloniphi izethameli noma njengokukhohlisa okubi kakhulu. Ukukhetha kukho. Asethembe ukuthi kuzoba nabantu abanesibindi abazobuza imibuzo engajabulisi. Isibonelo, kungani amakhemikhali e-petrochemicals emhlabeni wonke enenzuzo kakhulu, kodwa izinkampani zikahulumeni zaseRussia zitshala amashumi ezigidigidi "kumapayipi" kanye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla eluhlaza, hhayi kuwo?
- Futhi ekugcineni, ngithanda ukwethemba ukuthi omunye wabafundi uzokwenza ikhasi mayelana nge-Wikipedia yesiRashiya. Sekuyisikhathi, ngicabanga.
Amandla elanga
Ake sihlanganise isihloko sezinqubo ze-exponential. Ishadi le-BP lakamuva libonisa ukuthi isabelo "selanga" seqe kanjani kakhulu ngo-2020, futhi ne-BP eqinile ikholelwa ekusaseni layo. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi inqubo yokuchaza ibuye ibonwe lapho, okuthi, njengomthetho kaMoore, iqhubeke iminyaka engaphezu kwengu-40 futhi ibizwa ngokuthi uMthetho ka-Swenson:
Source:
Incazelo evamile ilula - intengo yemojuli yehla kakhulu futhi ukukhiqizwa kukhula kakhulu. Ngenxa yalokho, uma eminyakeni engu-40 edlule kwakuwubuchwepheshe obune-cosmic (ngawo wonke umqondo) izindleko zikagesi, futhi kwakufanelekile ngokuyinhloko ukunika amandla ama-satellites, khona-ke namuhla izindleko nge-watt ngayinye sezivele zehla cishe izikhathi ezingu-400 futhi ziyaqhubeka nokuwa ( ngokushesha 3 oda). Isilinganiso se-CAGR senani singaba ngu-16% ngokunyuka okufika ku-25% eminyakeni eyi-10 edlule, okuyinto engenzeki njalo.
Ngenxa yalokho, lokhu futhi kubangela ukwanda okukhulu komthamo ofakiwe nokukhiqiza:
Source:
Ukukhula izikhathi ezingu-10 eminyakeni engu-7-8 kubi kakhulu (bala i-CAGR ngokwakho, uzothola u-33–38%(!)). Kuyahlekisa, kepha uma kungamiswa, amandla elanga kuphela azokhiqiza i-100% yezidingo zikagesi emhlabeni eminyakeni eyi-12. Lokhu kumele kusetshenzwe ngakho ngokucophelela. Ukunciphisa ngandlela thize leli hlazo e-United States, uTrump ngonyaka odlule wethula umsebenzi omkhulu (kwezinye izimakethe) we-30% wokungeniswa kwamaphaneli elanga. Kodwa amaShayina alahliwe ekupheleni konyaka anciphisa amanani ngo-34% (ngonyaka!), hhayi nje ukususa imisebenzi, kodwa futhi nokwenza ukuthenga kubo kube nenzuzo futhi. Futhi bayaqhubeka nokwakha amafekthri e-robotic ngokugcwele ngokukhiqiza amashumi ama-gigawatts amabhethri ngonyaka, ngokuphindaphindiwe behlisa amanani futhi bakhulise imiqulu yokukhiqiza. Kuyiphupho elibi, uzovuma.
Izindleko ezihlayo zamabhethri zinjalo kangangokuthi eminyakeni yamuva awazange nje abe nokuncintisana ngaphandle koxhaso, kodwa umngcele wokusetshenziswa kwawo okungabizi kakhulu uhamba ngokushesha enyakatho enyakatho nenkabazwe, ehlanganisa amakhilomitha afika kumakhulu ngonyaka. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izolo nje bekubalulekile ukuqondisa amabhethri endaweni efanele nakho konke lokho. Kudlula iminyaka engu-3-4, futhi ngentengo efanayo indawo enkulu yamabhethri ingafakwa kalula kuma-facade aseningizimu. Yebo, awasebenzi kangako, kodwa adinga ukuwashwa kancane futhi kulula ukuwafaka. Futhi ngentengo efanayo yokufaka, ukunciphisa izindleko zobunikazi kubaluleke kakhulu.
Futhi, isithende se-Achilles samandla elanga sikhiqiza ugesi ongalingani, ikakhulukazi ezimweni lapho ukusebenza kahle kwesitoreji kude ne-100%. Futhi-ke kuvela ukuthi ngezinga elinjalo lokwehla kwezindleko zokukhiqiza i-megawatt eyodwa, maduze nje hhayi kuphela ukusebenza kahle okuphansi nokujwayelekile kokugcina okuhlanganisiwe (okungukuthi, kungagcinwa ngendlela engasebenzi kahle, kodwa eshibhile) , kodwa futhi nezindleko zokufaka amabhethri (okungukuthi, kuleyo mali efanayo, asikwazi ukufaka ama-megawatts amaningi esizukulwane, kodwa futhi nama-megawatts amaningi okugcina "mahhala", okushintsha kakhulu isimo).
Inani:
- Umthetho ka-Swenson ucishe ufane noMthetho ka-Moore ngokusemthethweni, nakuba i-CAGR incane. Kodwa impela kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo umphumela wayo uzobonakala kakhulu.
- Lesi isihloko esihluke ngokuphelele, kodwa ngenxa yentuthuko esheshayo yelanga nomoya, izigidigidi ezihlanyayo ziye zatshalwa ezinhlelweni zokugcina amandla ezimbonini eminyakeni emi-3 edlule. Ngokwemvelo, uTesla ulapha , okwabonisa . Abasebenzi begesi . Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuzijabulisa akukakaqali, njengoba ubuchwepheshe obuningana busongela ukudlula i-Li-Ion ngezindleko zokugcina eziwayo. Kodwa-ke, le yindaba ehluke ngokuphelele, sizoba nentshisekelo ku-CAGR yabo eminyakeni embalwa (manje kumnandi, kepha lokhu ).
Izimoto zikagesi
Ochwepheshe abangathi sína babhala kumagazini ohlonishwa kakhulu i-Scientific American emuva ngo-1909: “Iqiniso lokuthi imoto isifinyelele umkhawulo ekuthuthukisweni kwayo liqinisekiswa iqiniso lokuthi phakathi nonyaka odlule azikho intuthuko ephawulekayo.” Ngonyaka odlule akuzange kube khona ukuthuthuka okukhulu ezimotweni ezisebenza ngogesi. Lokhu kunikeza izizathu zokugomela ngakho konke ukuzethemba ukuthi imoto kagesi isivele ifinyelele esicongweni sokuthuthuka kwayo.
Okubi nakakhulu, kunenkinga "yenkukhu neqanda" kubuchwepheshe obuningi. Kuze kube yilapho ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi kufinyelela ezingeni elithile, kubiza kakhulu ukwethula inani lezinto ezintsha, futhi, ngokuphambene nalokho, kuze kube yilapho zethulwa, ukuthengisa kuyehla. Labo. Ukuze unqobe "izifo zezingane" kudingeka ukukhiqizwa okuthile okukhulu. Futhi lapha kulula ukuhlola ubuchwepheshe obusha ngezinga lokukhiqizwa okuphelele komuntu ngamunye:
Source:
Angiyena uchwepheshe futhi angazi ukuthi izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi zizoshintsha kanjani eminyakeni engu-15 ezayo. Kodwa lokhu ngokuqinisekile kuwumkhiqizo wobuchwepheshe obuphezulu kakhulu, futhi bashintsha ngokushesha. Futhi izinga lezimoto zamanje zikagesi yizinga lezimoto ezinezinjini zomlilo zangaphakathi ngo-1910 kanye nezinga lezingcingo eziphathwayo ngo-1983. Izinguquko zibe ngcono (kumthengi) eminyakeni engu-15 ezayo zizoba zimangalisa. Futhi yilapho ubumnandi buqala khona.
Ngokuvamile, izimoto zikagesi ziqhutshelwa phambili yizici ezintathu:
- Uma unyathela igesi, undizela phambili, njengasemotweni yezemidlalo, futhi intengo iphansi ngokuphawulekayo kunaleyo yemoto yezemidlalo. Futhi izimoto zikagesi zibadlula ngamathrekhi amafushane (, , isibonelo, ngenxa yalesi sizathu uTesla ) Iliphi iphoyisa laseRussia-American elingakuthandi ukushayela ngokushesha?
- Ukugcwalisa kubiza kakhulu, uma kungenjalo. URoman Naumov ohlala eCanada () kubangela ukucasuka okuvuthayo, echaza indlela yena, isifo, ashayela ngayo amakhilomitha angu-600 ngaphandle kwedolobha, echitha u-$4 kuphethiloli (noma ubengawusebenzisi nhlobo). U-Elon Musk, ngiyakhumbula, wakhala ngokuthi abanikazi abaningi abacebile be-Teslas ebizayo bayishayela ku-Supercharger yamahhala, i-freebie elahliwe. Ngamafuphi, uphethiloli ucishe uphele ezintweni ezisetshenziswayo.
- Futhi bonke onjiniyela basho ngazwi linye ukuthi lapho izifo zezingane zelashwa, imoto kagesi izobiza kancane ukuyinakekela. LOKHO kuzobiza kakhulu. Amathayi kuphela, bathi kumele ashintshwe kaningi, aguge...
Futhi-ke, iqiniso lokuthi imoto, empeleni, ingakhokhiswa noma kuphi lapho kukhona khona ukuphuma - lokhu kuyinguquko. Okusho ukuthi, uma ugesi ufinyelele kugogo wakho esigodini, ungeza kuye futhi ugcwalise kabusha, nakuba isikhathi eside. Yiqiniso, ngeke ukwazi ukushayela indebe yezwe, kodwa i-99. (9)% yabantu beza emzaneni, bese imoto ihlezi lapho. Futhi kusasa ngeke nje ime, kodwa idle ugesi ngenani elishibhile ledolobhana.
Yebo, asekhona ambalwa amashaja, ikakhulukazi asheshayo, kodwa... ake sibheke igrafu:
Source:
Ini? Inqubo ye-Exponential futhi? Futhi yikuphi! Umbuzo ubekwe kanje: isimo sizoshintsha kanjani uma eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo inani leziteshi zegesi landa izikhathi eziyi-1000 ("Inkulungwane, Karl!")? (Le yi-CAGR=100%, i.e. ukuphinda kabili ngonyaka) Uxolo, bengingalungile. Kolandelayo Eminyakeni 8 Izikhathi eziyi-1000! (Le yi-CAGR=137%, i.e. ishesha kunokuphindwa kabili konyaka). Futhi emibili yale minyaka engu-8 icishe idlule ... Futhi abantu abavela embonini bathi eminyakeni engu-8 ezayo ukukhula ngeke kube yi-3 oda yobukhulu, kodwa ngokushesha, ikakhulukazi ngesizukulwane esisha samafoloko. Ukuze uqonde ukuthi izobukeka kanjani, udinga ukuza eChina. Eqinisweni, kunezindawo zikagesi ezindaweni eziningi zokupaka futhi zikhula njengamakhowe ngemva kwemvula esimweni sezulu esifudumele. Futhi ngisho nezakhamuzi zezakhiwo eziphakeme zizofaka uphethiloli ngesonto ohambweni lwangeSonto oluya ebhayisikobho noma enxanxatheleni yezitolo (lapho imoto isamile futhi ikulindile amahora ambalwa). Futhi izikhungo zokuthenga ezinezindawo zokudlela zizolwela izivakashi ezinezimoto zikagesi (zivele zilwa eChina).
Yebo, intengo yezimoto zikagesi iphezulu manje. Kodwa ibhethri linikeza isabelo esikhulu lapho, futhi izindleko zayo zehla kanje:
Source:
Yebo, bavuma! Lena futhi inqubo echazayo! Futhi i-CAGR emaphakathi ingama-20,8%, njengoba sazi, iphezulu KAKHULU. Uma u-5% eyizikhathi ezi-2 eminyakeni engu-15, kodwa u-20% izikhathi ezingu-10 eminyakeni engu-12 (“Izikhathi eziyishumi, Karl!”):
Kuyahlekisa ukuthi ngaleli zinga, eminyakeni engu-3-4, esikhundleni sebhethri elilodwa lemoto yakho, ungathenga amabili ngentengo efanayo. Lengisa eyesibili egalaji, futhi izokunikeza ishaja enkulu yomuntu siqu. Ufika ekhaya uzofaka uphethiloli. Futhi ngenani lasebusuku. Futhi indlu yonke izophakelwa ngesilinganiso sasebusuku. Futhi ukuphela kukagesi esigodini sase-cottage ngeke kusaba ukukhathazeka. Futhi (ukhumbula i-CAGR "yelanga") - kuzokwazi ukufaka ama-solar panel ophahleni. Kukhona ukonga okuhle lapho, ngakho-ke abantu abaningi bazothi: “Kuhle! Ngizoyithatha! Liqede!” (ikakhulukazi ku и , Ngokuqinisekile).
Kuyinto emangalisayo, ngemva kwakho konke, lezi zinqubo ezichazayo. Eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo, nakanjani sizobona inqubekelaphambili enkulu emkhakheni wezimoto zikagesi futhi izimoto zikagesi zesimanje zizothathwa njengezingalungile kakhulu futhi ziwusizi. Akukho ukugodlwa kwamandla, akukho umshayeli ozenzakalelayo, kufanele uphathe inqwaba yama-adaptha... Amamodeli asekuqaleni, ngamafuphi.
Inani:
- Izimoto zikagesi zathengiswa eChina engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2019 . Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezinezinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi kwehle ngo-12%. Akuyona insimbi, insimbi.
- Okudume kakhulu phakathi kwezimoto zikagesi, kunjalo, iTesla. Kodwa ngingadonsela ukunaka kwakho kumaShayina . Cishe ubukeka kakhulu .
- E-China, amapuleti ezinombolo zezimoto zikagesi aluhlaza. Iziphathimandla zithembisa ukuthi maduze nje ezinsukwini zezinga “elibomvu” lentuthu zizoyeka ukuvumela zonke izimoto ngaphandle kwezikagesi zingene enkabeni yeBeijing. Izinkampani zamatekisi zithenga izimoto zikagesi ngezinkulungwane. Umbhali ugibele itekisi enjalo, ibukeka ihlaba umxhwele.
Kwenzekani ku-IT?
Umthetho kaMoore waziwa kakhulu njengoba wagcina nge-CAGR enkulu cishe engama-41% cishe iminyaka engama-40. Yiziphi ezinye izibonelo ze-CAGR enhle ezikhona ku-IT? Ziningi zazo, ngokwesibonelo, ukukhula kwemali engenayo ye-Google nge-CAGR engama-43% eminyakeni eyi-16:
Source:
Uma ubheka le grafu, abanye abantu (ikakhulukazi labo izicelo zabo zivinjelwe kusuka ku-Google Play Isitolo) bazizwa bengakhululekile. Kuningi ongacabanga ngakho lapha. Ngesonto eledlule, ngenkathi ngishayela imoto, i-smartphone yaqala ukuphakamisa ngokuqhubekayo ukushintshela ku-Google navigation, naphezu kokuthi ngangivele ngishayela nge-Yandex.Navigator. Cishe abasenawo usayizi wemakethe owanele, kodwa badinga ukukhulisa imali engenayo, ngacabanga. Futhi ngacabanga ngakho.
Kodwa-ke, akhona futhi anethemba elikhulu lamagrafu obuchwepheshe, ngokwesibonelo, aboniswa esikalini se-logarithmic, ukwehla kwentengo yesikhala sediski kanye nokwenyuka kwejubane lokuxhuma ku-inthanethi ngo-2019:
Source:
Kulula ukuqaphela ukuthi kukhona ukuthambekela kokufinyelela ithafa, i.e. izinga lokukhula liyancipha. Noma kunjalo, bakhula kahle amashumi eminyaka. Uma ubheka ama-hard drive ngemininingwane eyengeziwe, ungabona ukuthi ukubuya okulandelayo ku-exponent kuvame ukuqinisekiswa ubuchwepheshe obulandelayo:
Source:
Ngakho-ke silinde ama-SSD ukuthi abambe ama-HDD futhi awashiye kude.
Futhi, nge-CAGR enhle kakhulu yama-59%, izindleko zamaphikseli amakhamera edijithali zehla ngesikhathi esisodwa (umthetho we-Handy):
Source:
Iminyaka engu-10 edlule iphinde yabona ukwehla okukhulu kosayizi wephikseli yekhamera.
Futhi, nge-CAGR enhle cishe engama-25% (izikhathi eziyi-10 eminyakeni eyi-10), izindleko ngephikseli ngayinye yesibonisi esijwayelekile bezilokhu zehla cishe iminyaka engama-40, kuyilapho ukukhanya nokugqama kwamaphikseli nakho kukhuphuka (okungukuthi, ikhwalithi ephezulu inikezwa ngentengo ephansi). Ngokuvamile, abakhiqizi abasakwazi ukuthi bawabeke kuphi amaphikseli. Ama-TV we-8K asevele ethengeke kakhulu, kodwa ongakubonisa kuwo kuwumbuzo omuhle. Noma iyiphi inombolo yamaphikseli ingamuncwa i-autostereoscopy, kodwa kunezinkinga ezingaxazululiwe lapho. Nokho, lena indaba ehlukile. Kunoma ikuphi, ukwehliswa okuthakazelisayo kwezindleko ze-pixel kusondeza i-autostereoscopy.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukusabalala kwe-exponential kwezinsizakalo eziningi zesoftware:
Source:
Isibonelo, i-AppleTV noma i-Facebook. Futhi, njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, sibonga ikakhulukazi ezinkundleni zokuxhumana, ijubane lokusabalalisa izinto ezintsha liyakhula.
Inani:
- Ikakhulukazi ngenxa yezinqubo ezichazayo kule minyaka engu-20 edlule, izinkampani ze-IT ziye zasusa kakhulu ezinye ezisohlwini lwezinkampani ezinkulu emhlabeni. Futhi abananhloso yokuma (noma ngabe lokho kusho ukuthini).
- Ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe obuningi ku-IT kuyavela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, okwakudala kungamajika amise okuka-S, lapho endaweni efanayo obunye ubuchwepheshe buthatha isikhundla sobunye, isikhathi ngasinye bubangela enye ibuye ibe yizinga lokuchasisa.
Amanethiwekhi e-Neural
Amanethiwekhi e-Neural asedume kakhulu muva nje. Ake sibheke inani lamalungelo obunikazi kuwo eminyakeni yakamuva:
Damn... Kubukeka njengombukisi futhi (yize isikhathi sisifushane kakhulu). Kodwa-ke, uma sibheka ukuqalisa isikhathi eside, isithombe sicishe sifane (izikhathi eziyi-14 eminyakeni eyi-15 yi-CAGR ye-19% - inhle kakhulu):
Source: (yebo, yebo, ngiyazi ukuthi yini ekhona eminyakeni emi-3 ezayo)
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amanethiwekhi e-neural ezindaweni eziningi abonisa ngazwilinye imiphumela engcono kunomuntu ojwayelekile:
Source:
Futhi kulungile, uma umphumela uku-ImageNet (yize umphumela oqondile uyisizukulwane esisha samarobhothi ezimboni), kodwa ekuboneni inkulumo isithombe esifanayo:
Source:
Eqinisweni, amanethiwekhi e-neural asanda kudlula umuntu ojwayelekile ekuqashelweni kwenkulumo futhi asesendleleni yokuwenza asebenze kahle kakhulu kuzo zonke izilimi ezivamile. Lapho, .
Njengoba benza amahlaya ngalesi sihloko, esikhathini esingeside esidlule sasicabanga: yebo, maduze amarobhothi azokwazi ukwenza amaqhinga ezingeni lezinkawu, futhi kwakucatshangwa ukuthi kukude kakhulu nezinga lomuntu oyisiphukuphuku, futhi ngisho nangaphezulu. Einstein:
Source:
Kodwa kungazelelwe kwavela ukuthi izinga lomuntu ojwayelekile lase lifinyelelwe (futhi liyaqhubeka nokufinyelelwa) ), kanye nezinga lobuhlakani obuyivelakancane (njengoba imiqhudelwano nomuntu ku-chess kanye ne-Go yabonisa) ibanga livele laba lincane kunalokho obekulindelwe:
Source:
Emdlalweni we-chess, abantu abavelele bathathwa eminyakeni eyi-15 edlule, e-Go - , futhi inkambiso isobala:
Source:
Njengoba isikhulu esiphezulu sakwaGeneral Electric uJack Welch sake sathi, “Uma izinga loshintsho ngaphandle likhulu kunezinga loshintsho ngaphakathi, ukuphela kuseduze.” Labo. Uma inkampani ingashintshi ngokushesha kunokuba isimo esizungezile sishintsha, isengozini enkulu. Ngeshwa, washiya isikhundla eminyakeni engu-18 edlule, futhi ingcebo ye-GE iye yaba yimbi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi. I-GE ayihambisani nezinguquko.
Ngikhumbula izibikezelo mayelana nocingo ngochwepheshe be-Western Union, izibikezelo ze-Lord Kelvin, izilinganiso zemakethe zamakhompiyutha asekhaya e-Digital Equipment nama-smartphones e-Microsoft, ngokumelene nokwasemuva kwezibikezelo ze-Sechin, ngibekezelele ukukhathazeka. Ngoba umlando uyaziphinda. Futhi futhi. Futhi futhi. Futhi futhi.
Ochwepheshe abaningi, ngemuva kokufunda umkhakha wabo esikhungweni/enyuvesi, bayayeka ukuthuthuka. Futhi izibikezelo zenziwa kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe bekhulu leminyaka elidlule (ngawo wonke umqondo). Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngike ngahlushwa umbuzo: ngokushesha kangakanani amanethiwekhi e-neural azothatha indawo yochwepheshe abangazi ukuthi bangasifaka kanjani isicelo se-CAGR? Futhi ngifuna ngempela ukwenza isibikezelo, futhi ngesaba ukuba nephutha. Ngaphansi kwe-undershoot, njengoba uqonda.
Kodwa ngokungathí sina, ijubane elisheshayo loshintsho lifana nomoya. Uma wazi ukuthi ubeka kanjani amaseyili ngendlela efanele (futhi isikebhe sikaseyili siyavumelana), khona-ke ngisho nomoya ohamba phambili ngeke ukuvimbele ukuthi uqhubekele phambili, futhi ngisho noma kuwumoya womsila, ngisho ne-CAGR enkulu !!!
I-CAGR enhle kuwo wonke umuntu oqede ukufunda!
I-UPD
I-Habraeffect isasebenza! Ngosuku okwashicilelwa ngalo lokhu, kwavela isihloko mayelana ! Isibonelo asikakahunyushwa, kodwa isiqalo sesivele senziwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho ungabona noma
UkubongaNgithanda ukubonga ngobuqotho:
- Ilabhorethri ye-Computer Graphics VMK Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov ngeqhaza lakhe ekuthuthukiseni ihluzo zekhompyutha eRussia nangale kwayo,
- uqobo uKonstantin Kozhemyakov, owenza okuningi ukwenza lesi sihloko sibe ngcono futhi sicace kakhudlwana,
- futhi ekugcineni, sibonga kakhulu uKirill Malyshev, u-Egor Sklyarov, u-Ivan Molodetskikh, u-Nikolai Oplachko, u-Evgeny Lyapustin, u-Alexander Ploshkin, u-Andrey Moskalenko, u-Aidar Khatiullin, u-Dmitry Klepikov, u-Dmitry Konovalchuk, uMaxim Velikanov, u-Alexander Yakovenko wenombolo enkulu esebenzayo u-Evgeny no-Evgeny ukuphawula nokuhlela okwenze lo mbhalo waba ngcono kakhulu!
Source: www.habr.com