I-Gartner Hype Cycle 2019: i-debriefing

Sihlele ubuchwepheshe be-AI bonyaka ka-2019 futhi sabuqhathanisa ngokungenamahloni nesibikezelo sika-2017.

Okokuqala, yini i-Gartner Hype Cycle? Lolu uhlobo lomjikelezo wokuvuthwa kobuchwepheshe, noma kunalokho uguquko olusuka esigabeni se-hype luye ekusetshenzisweni kwalo okukhiqizayo. Manje kuzoba negrafu enokuhumusha ukuze icace kakhudlwana konke. Futhi ngezansi kukhona izincazelo.

Isigaba sokuqala. intukuthelo. Yethula. Ubuchwepheshe buvela, kuxoxwa kuqala ngabahlakaniphile abakhanyiselwe, bese kuba ngumphakathi oshisekayo; Injabulo ikhula kancane kancane.

Isigaba sesibili. ukuxoxisana. Inani eliphakeme lokulindelwe. Ngesinye isikhathi, wonke umuntu usevele ekhuluma ngobuchwepheshe, ezama ukukusebenzisa, futhi abahlakaniphile kakhulu bayayithengisa ngamanani aphakeme kakhulu.

Isigaba sesithathu. ukucindezeleka Ukwehla kwentshisekelo. Ubuchwepheshe busetshenziswa ngenkuthalo futhi ngokuvamile buhluleka ngenxa yokushiyeka nokulinganiselwa. “Konke kuwubuwula!” - iza lapha nalaphaya. Injabulo yehla kakhulu (ithegi yentengo, ngokuvamile nayo).

Isigaba sesine. ukunganaki Sebenza kwizimbungulu. Ubuchwepheshe buyathuthukiswa, izinkinga ziyaxazululwa. Kancane kancane, izinkampani zizama ngokucophelela ukusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe futhi, ngokushesha, konke kuhamba kahle.

Isigaba sesihlanu. Ukutholwa Umsebenzi okhiqizayo. Ubuchwepheshe buzuza indawo eyifanele emakethe futhi busebenza buthule, buthuthuka, futhi buthandwa.

Yini ethrendayo?

Ibuyela kumjikelezo we-hype ka-2019. Gartner kukhishwe ngo-September, umbiko lapho ubuchwepheshe bezobunhloli bokwenziwa bukusiphi isigaba, futhi buzoqala nini ukusebenza ngendlela ephumelelayo. Igrafu engezansi, amazwana angezansi kwegrafu.

Ubuchwepheshe "Ukuqashelwa Kwenkulumo" kanye "Nenqubo Yokusheshisa Ukusebenzisa I-GPU" buhamba phambili ngemajini enkulu futhi kakade busesigabeni "Somsebenzi Okhiqizayo". Lokhu kusho ukuthi kufanele zisetshenziswe ngokushesha, ngoba kakade zinikeza inzuzo yokuncintisana kubanikazi bazo.

Ukufunda ngomshini okuzenzakalelayo (i-AutoML) nama-chatbots okwamanje asezingeni eliphezulu. Okusho ukuthi, wonke umuntu ukhuluma ngazo, abaningi bayazisebenzisa, kodwa kuzothatha kusukela ku-2 kuye ku-5 ngokwemibandela ukuletha ubuchwepheshe ezingeni elidingekayo.

Izimoto esizijwayele manje sezingaphezulu kwezemfashini. Ubuchwepheshe bezimoto ezizimele cishe buhlola phansi. Kulokhu, lokhu kuhle, ngoba umsebenzi okhiqizayo usalindele. Nokho, uGartner ulinganisela ukuthi kuzothatha okungenani iminyaka eyi-10 ukuthuthukisa nokuzivumelanisa nezimo.

Aphi ama-drones owake waba yi-hype kanye neqiniso elibonakalayo namuhla? Konke sekumi ngomumo - uGartner wafaka ama-drones emkhakheni we-Edge AI (izigaba ezisemngceleni we-AI), futhi iqiniso elingokoqobo laba yingxenye yobuhlakani obungathandwa kwabathelisi esikubona. Zombili izihloko, ngendlela, manje zisesiteji sokuqalisa futhi zinesimo sezulu esihle: iminyaka engu-2-5 ngaphambi komsebenzi okhiqizayo emakethe.

Amathemba

Phakathi kwezici ezithembisayo: Isofthiwe ye-Robotic process automation - izwakala ithusa, kodwa empeleni yilapho irobhothi lithatha indawo yezenzo ezivamile. Iphupho elibi labasebenzi abangenamakhono aphansi; nokho ukutadisha I-Harvard Business Review ithi ngeke kube khona ukudilizwa, kodwa umkhiqizo uzokhula. Yidla izizathu kholwani. Ubuchwepheshe buzodlula inani eliphakeme lokungathandwa nokudelelwa okuvamile eminyakeni engu-2, bese lisakazeka yonke indawo.

Kubuchwepheshe abavangeli kanye nama-infogypsies azo zonke izinhlobo zemigqa bazokhuluma ngabo ngobuningi kuphela esikhathini esizayo, "imishini ye-neuromorphic" yayithakazelisa ngokukhethekile. Lawa ngamadivaysi kagesi (ama-chips) lawo lingisa izakhiwo zemvelo zebhayoloji zesimiso sethu sezinzwa mayelana nokusebenza kahle kwamandla. Ukuyibeka kalula nje, imayelana nokusebenza kahle kakhulu ngenxa yokuhlukaniswa kwezabasebenzi (ukuvuselelwa okungavumelani kwama-neurons). Iziqhwaga ezifana ne-IBM ne-Intel sezivele zinzima emsebenzini zidala ama-neuromorphic chips. Kodwa ibutho likaJohn Connor linesikhathi sokulungiselela usuku lwembubhiso - uGartner unikeze ubuchwepheshe iminyaka engaba ngu-10 ukuthi buvuthwe.

Ngokuvamile, bakhuluma kakhulu nge-Digital Ethics, kodwa abajahi ukukusebenzisa. Isiqondiso sabelwe isigaba esihlukile semikhakha ye-AI: kusho ukuthi kuzodingeka ukuthi kuhlanganiswe izimiso zokuziphatha, izinkambiso nezindinganiso zokuqoqwa kwedatha, ukuqaliswa kwe-AI ekuphileni, ngokuvamile, ukuze kube njenge abantu. Ekugcineni, bheka i-Asimov.

2017 vs2019

Kuyahlekisa, kodwa ngo-2017 konke kwaba ngokuhlukile, bekungekho ngisho nomjikelezo ohlukile we-hype we-AI: Ubuchwepheshe be-AI bebusendaweni yokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe (i-Emerging Technologies) kanye ne-blockchain kanye neqiniso elengeziwe.

Ukufunda ngomshini nokufunda okujulile kwakukwi-hype Olympus ngo-2017, kwathi ngo-2019 baqhubeka nendlela yabo ebheke ekwehleni, okusho ukuthi. umsebenzi okhiqizayo.

Ngendlela, ama-drones asuka phezulu ehla unyaka wonke, kwathi ngo-2019 abuyela emuva esondela esiqongweni. Futhi lokhu kwenzeka, yebo.

Ngo-2019, umjikelezo wawuhlanganisa nobuchwepheshe obusha obuyi-8. Phakathi kwazo kukhona izinsiza zamafu i-AI (Izinsizakalo Zefu), Izimakethe ze-AI (Izimakethe), I-Quantum Computing ne-AI (Quantum Computing). Ngokuvamile, amathuluzi aziwayo (emibuthanweni emincane) aqala ukubeka i-AI endleleni.

Source: www.habr.com