Sikhuluma ngemithetho emibili nayo eseqala ukulahlekelwa ukubaluleka kwayo.
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Umthetho kaMoore wasungulwa eminyakeni engaphezu kwamashumi amahlanu edlule. Phakathi naso sonke lesi sikhathi, wahlala enobulungisa ingxenye enkulu. Ngisho nanamuhla, lapho usuka kwenye inqubo yezobuchwepheshe uye kwenye, ukuminyana kwama-transistors ku-chip . Kodwa kunenkinga - ijubane lokuthuthukiswa kwezinqubo ezintsha zobuchwepheshe liyancipha.
Isibonelo, i-Intel ibambezele ukukhiqizwa kwenqwaba yamaphrosesa ayo e-10nm Ice Lake isikhathi eside. Ngenkathi isiqhwaga se-IT sizoqala ukuthunyelwa kwemishini ngenyanga ezayo, isimemezelo sezakhiwo senzeka cishe iminyaka edlule. Futhi ngo-Agasti odlule, umenzi wesifunda ohlanganisiwe we-GlobalFoundries, osebenze ne-AMD, Izinqubo zobuchwepheshe ze-7-nm (okuningi mayelana nezizathu zalesi sinqumo thina kuHabre).
ΠΈ Sekuyiminyaka bebikezela ukufa komthetho kaMoore. Ngisho uGordon uqobo ukuthi umthetho awuqambile uzoyeka ukusebenza. Kodwa-ke, umthetho kaMoore akuyona ukuphela kwephethini elahlekelwa ukubaluleka nokuthi yibaphi abakhiqizi beprosesa abalandelayo.
Umthetho kaDennard wokukala
Yakhiwa ngo-1974 ngunjiniyela kanye nomthuthukisi wenkumbulo enamandla u-DRAM Robert Dennard, kanye nozakwabo bakwa-IBM. Umthetho uhamba kanje:
"Ngokunciphisa usayizi we-transistor nokwandisa ijubane lewashi le-processor, singakhuphula kalula ukusebenza kwayo."
Umthetho kaDennard wasungula ukuncishiswa kobubanzi bekhondatha (inqubo yobuchwepheshe) njengenkomba eyinhloko yenqubekelaphambili embonini yobuchwepheshe be-microprocessor. Kepha umthetho kaDennard wokukala uyeke ukusebenza cishe ngo-2006. Inani lama-transistors kuma-chips liyaqhubeka nokukhula, kodwa leli qiniso ekusebenzeni kwedivayisi.
Isibonelo, abamele i-TSMC (umkhiqizi we-semiconductor) bathi ukuguqulwa kusuka ku-7 nm kuya ku-5 nm inqubo yobuchwepheshe. isivinini sewashi lokucubungula ngo-15% kuphela.
Isizathu sokwehla kokukhula kwemvamisa ukuvuza kwamanje, uDennard angazange akucabangele ngasekupheleni kwawo-70s. Njengoba ubukhulu be-transistor buyancipha futhi imvamisa iyanda, okwamanje iqala ukushisa i-microcircuit ngaphezulu, engayilimaza. Ngakho-ke, abakhiqizi kufanele balinganise amandla anikezwe iprosesa. Ngenxa yalokho, kusukela ngo-2006, imvamisa yama-chips akhiqizwa ngobuningi isethwe ku-4-5 GHz.
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Namuhla, onjiniyela basebenzela ubuchwepheshe obusha obuzoxazulula inkinga futhi bakhulise ukusebenza kwama-microcircuits. Ngokwesibonelo, ochwepheshe abavela e-Australia i-metal-to-air transistor enemvamisa yamagigahertz angamakhulu amaningana. I-transistor iqukethe ama-electrode amabili ensimbi asebenza njenge-drain kanye nomthombo futhi atholakala ebangeni elingu-35 nm. Bashintshana ngama-electron ngenxa yalesi simo .
Ngokusho kwabathuthukisi, idivayisi yabo izokwenza kube nokwenzeka ukuyeka "ukujaha" ukunciphisa izinqubo zobuchwepheshe futhi bagxile ekwakheni izakhiwo ze-3D ezisebenza kahle ngenani elikhulu lama-transistors ku-chip.
Kumi Rule
Wakhe ngo-2011 nguprofesa waseStanford uJonathan Koomey. Ehlangene nozakwabo bakwaMicrosoft, Intel kanye neCarnegie Mellon University, yena ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla kwezinhlelo zekhompiyutha eziqala ngekhompyutha ye-ENIAC eyakhiwa ngo-1946. Ngenxa yalokho, uKumi wafinyelela esiphethweni esilandelayo:
"Inani lekhompyutha nge-kilowatt ngayinye yamandla ngaphansi komthwalo omile liphindeka kabili ngonyaka nengxenye."
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, waphawula ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kwamakhompiyutha kuye kwanda eminyakeni edlule.
Ngo-2015, Kumi emsebenzini wakhe futhi wengeza ucwaningo ngedatha entsha. Uthole ukuthi umkhuba awuchaza wehlile. Ukusebenza kwe-chip okumaphakathi nge-kilowathi ngayinye yamandla sekuqale ukuphinda kabili cishe njalo eminyakeni emithathu. Umkhuba ushintshile ngenxa yobunzima obuhambisana nokupholisa ama-chips (), njengoba usayizi we-transistor wehla, kuba nzima kakhulu ukususa ukushisa.
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Ubuchwepheshe obusha bokupholisa ama-chip buyathuthukiswa okwamanje, kodwa akukakhulunywa ngokusetshenziswa kwabo ngobuningi okwamanje. Isibonelo, onjiniyela abavela enyuvesi eNew York bahlongoza ukuphrinta kwe-laser 3D kokufaka ungqimba oluncane olubamba ukushisa lwe-titanium, ithini nesiliva kukristalu. I-thermal conductivity yento enjalo ingcono izikhathi ezingu-7 kunezinye i-interfaces ezishisayo (i-thermal paste nama-polymers).
Naphezu kwazo zonke izici , umkhawulo wamandla wethiyori usekude. Ucaphuna ucwaningo olwenziwa isazi sesayensi yemvelo uRichard Feynman, owaphawula ngo-1985 ukuthi amandla asebenza kahle asebenza ngokuqhubekayo azokwenyuka izikhathi eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyikhulu. Ngesikhathi sika-100, lesi sibalo sanda izikhathi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2011 kuphela.
Imboni ye-IT ijwayele ukukhula ngokushesha emandleni ekhompyutha, ngakho onjiniyela bafuna izindlela zokunweba uMthetho kaMoore futhi banqobe izinselele ezibekwe imithetho kaCoomey noDennard. Ikakhulukazi, izinkampani nezikhungo zocwaningo zifuna ukushintshwa kobuchwepheshe bendabuko be-transistor kanye ne-silicon. Sizokhuluma ngezinye izindlela ezingasetshenziswa ngokuzayo.
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Source: www.habr.com