Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Ngike ngaqaphela ukuziphatha okungajwayelekile ezilinganisweni ngaphambili, kodwa muva nje ukumangala sekusobala kakhulu. Futhi nginqume ukuphenya inkinga ngisebenzisa izindlela zesayensi enginazo, okungukuthi: ukuhlaziya amandla ka-plus-minus. Ingabe uke wacabanga?

Ngisengumenzi wezinhlelo, kodwa ngingenza izinto eziyisisekelo. Ngakho-ke ngibhale insiza elula eqoqa izibalo ezivela kumaphaneli wokuthunyelwe kwe-Khabrov: okuhle, okubi, ukubuka, amabhukumaka, njll.

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Izibalo ziboniswa kumagrafu, ngemva kokufunda esikwazile ukuthola ezinye izimanga ezimbalwa, ezincane. Kodwa izinto zokuqala kuqala.

Okungajwayelekile 1.
Yilapho ucwaningo lwami lwezibalo lwaqala khona ngempela.

Kubonakale kuxakile kimina ukuthi emahoreni okuqala ngemuva kokushicilelwa kokunye kokuthunyelwe kwami ​​kuvele kubi kakhulu, base beya ku-zero futhi ekugcineni bathola okulindelwe. Kungani kwenzeka?

Bengisazoshicilela enye iposi - izingxenye ezimbili. Nganquma ukumfaka ekuhlaziyweni kwezibalo.

Kushicilelwe ingxenye yokuqala. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngethula insiza futhi ngaqala ukulinda umphumela. Ngeshwa, ebusuku - ngenkathi ngilele - uhlelo luyekile ukuqoqa ulwazi ngenxa yesiphazamisi. Ngakusasa ekuseni ngalilungisa iphutha, kodwa izibalo zaba isikhathi esingaphansi kosuku. Nokho, izitayela nazo zisobala ngesikhathi esetshenziwe.

Idatha inikezwa amahora okuqala ayi-14 kusukela ngesikhathi sokushicilelwa, isikhawu phakathi kwezilinganiso imizuzu eyi-10.

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Amehlo awazange asikhohlise: ama-minus amaningi avela ehoreni lokuqala lokuba khona kokuthunyelwe. Ekuqaleni okuthunyelwe kwangena endaweni engalungile, kwabe sekululama. Nazi izinombolo ezisetshenziselwa ukuhlela igrafu:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Futhi lokhu naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi imibono ikhula ngokushelela!

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Izinyathelo eziqala kumanani ayinkulungwane zichazwa yiqiniso lokuthi izifinyezo ziqala kuphaneli yeKhabrov: akukho ndawo lapho ungathola khona inani eliqondile lokubuka (mhlawumbe bekungathathwa ezinsizeni zezinkampani zangaphandle, kepha angizange ngizisebenzise. ).

Angiyena uchwepheshe wezibalo, kodwa ukusatshalaliswa okunjalo kwama-minuses akuvamile, ngokuqonda kwami?!

Bheka, amabhukumaka asatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo noma kancane phakathi nesikhathi sokubhalisa:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Amazwana nawo asatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Kukhona ukuqhuma komsebenzi nokungenzi lutho, kodwa futhi kusatshalaliswa phakathi nenkathi: ukubeka amazwana kuyanyamalala noma kuqale futhi.

Okufanayo nababhalisile - kukhona ukukhuphuka okuncane okufanayo:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

I-Karma ayizange ishintshe ngesikhathi sokubika - angiyicaphuni. Futhi isilinganiso sibalwa nguHabr, asikho isidingo sokusifaka ohlwini.

Zonke izinkomba zishintsha ngokulingana nenani lokubukwa, futhi kuphela ngama-minus kukhona okungalungile: ukuqhuma kwentukuthelo kwenzeka ngehora lokuqala kusukela ekuqaleni kokushicilelwa. Kwenzeka okufanayo ngemibhalo yami yangaphambilini. Kodwa uma ngaphambili lezi bekuyimibono yomuntu siqu, manje iqinisekiswa ngokubhaliswa.

Ngokombono wami we-noob, ukusabalalisa okunjalo kusho: kukhona abasebenzisi abambalwa kusayithi ababuka ngamabomu okuthunyelwe kwakamuva futhi bavotele phansi okunye okuthunyelwe - ngokusekelwe esidingweni esaziwa yibona kuphela. Ngibhala "okunye okuthunyelwe" ngoba ngiqaphele lo mphumela hhayi ezincwadini zami kuphela. Kuzo zonke izimo, umphumela uyaphinyiswa, ngaphandle kwalokho bengingeke ngiwunake.

Nginezinguqulo ezine zokuthi kungani lokhu kwenzeka.

Inguqulo 1. Ukuphendukezelwa kwengqondo. Abantu abagulayo babukela ngamabomu ababhali ababathola bengajabulisi futhi babavotele phansi, ngenhloso yokubalimaza.

Angikholelwa kule nguqulo.

Inguqulo 2. Umphumela wengqondo. Yikuphi - angazi. Hhayi-ke, kungani abafundi beqala besusa okuthunyelwe ngazwi linye, bese bevotela ngazwi linye? Ingabe asusa njengokungewona we-thematic, kodwa kanye nangemuva kokuthi ongoti bobuhle bazithola bebaningi? Angazi.

Uma kukhona izazi zokusebenza kwengqondo phakathi kwabafundi, mabaveze umbono wabo.

Inguqulo 3. Izinceku ziyasebenza. Kungani abaphathi babo kufanele basabalalise ukubola kumaposi kaKhabrov uNkulunkulu uyazi. Nokho, kukhona servicemen hhayi kuphela ezweni lethu. Ubani ozowaqonda, amaRussophobes?!

Inguqulo 4. Imiphumela ehlanganisiwe yezinto ezishiwo ngaphambilini.

Kuyaqondakala.

Noma kungaba njalo, abasebenzisi bayakwazi ukwehlisa inani lokubuka. Angijwayelene nemithetho yokuletha okuthunyelwe kukaKhabrov phezulu, angazi noma ngabe lezi zindlela ze-algorithm zenziwe esidlangalaleni noma cha, kodwa kusobala kimi: ukukhishwa kwangaphambi kwesikhathi akuvumeli okuthunyelwe okukhishwe inyumbazane ukuthi kufinyelele phezulu - ngokunembe kakhudlwana, ibambezela ukufika lapho, okubuye ngokuphawulekayo, ngezinye izikhathi, inciphise inani lokubuka.

Ngokuqonda kwami, azikho izindlela ezisebenzayo zokulwa nalobu bubi. Okuwukuphela kwendlela ukuvota komuntu siqu. Kulokhu kuphela lapho ungakwazi ukuthola ukuthi imaphi amaphrofayili alandelelwa ngezikhathi ezithile futhi asuse okuthunyelwe kwakamuva. Kodwa-ke, akukho ukuvota komuntu siqu ku-Habré (noma kunalokho, akwenziwa esidlangalaleni).

Kodwa akuyona yonke into elula kangaka.

Njengoba ngishilo, izinto ezihlakaziwe zashicilelwa izingxenye. Ngemva kokushicilelwa kwengxenye yesibili, ngilindele isithombe esifanayo: ngokukhipha kokuqala kokususa kanye nelandelayo ku-plus. Kodwa-ke, umphumela uvele waba bushelelezi kakhulu: okuthunyelwe akuzange kuphenduke kube yi-minus.

Ngesikhathi kushicilelwa ingxenye yesibili, iphutha lase lilungisiwe, ngakho-ke idatha inikezwa ngosuku:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Angazi ukuthi ukushelela kuvelaphi. Mhlawumbe ngenxa yokuthi ishicilelwe ngoMgqibelo (amavoti aphansi awasebenzi ngeMigqibelo?) noma ngoba lokhu ukuphela kwezinto ezishicilelwe ngaphambilini.

Kodwa-ke, ukusatshalaliswa kwama-minus kusengalingani: wonke ama-minus avela engxenyeni yokuqala yenkathi yokubhalisa, futhi ukukhishwa kugcina ngaphambi kwesikhathi kakhulu kunokuhlanganisa. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukubuka kusatshalaliswa phakathi nenkathi ncamashi njengesikhathi sokugcina - ngokulinganayo:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

I-spike eyenzeke ngehora lesithathu ntambama ayiyona into ehlukanisiwe. I-inthanethi yami isanda kucisha ihora. Insiza ayikwazanga ukuxhuma kusayithi.

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Konke okunye kusezingeni ngokuphelele.

Amabhukumaka:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Amazwana: njengesikhathi sokugcina, izikhathi zomsebenzi ziyashintshana nezinkathi zokuthula.

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

I-Karma. Ukwenyuka kwamayunithi ambalwa kwarekhodwa - vele, hhayi ngasikhathi sinye:

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Futhi ababhalisile. Inani eliphelele lahlala lingashintshiwe (ngokusobala, labo abanentshisekelo babhalise lapho kushicilelwa ingxenye yokuqala). Cishe ngehora lokuqala ntambama kwaba nokuguquguquka okukodwa: othile uzikhiphe ohlwini - mhlawumbe ngephutha - kodwa waphinda wabhalisa futhi. Uma bekungumuntu ohlukile, kwenzeka isinxephezelo: inani eliphelele lababhalisile alizange lishintshe.

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Ngakho-ke, amamethrikhi wokuthunyelwe aziphatha ngendlela ecacile nengabikezelwa. Zonke izinkomba, ngaphandle kwama-minus. Njengoba ngingaboni sizathu esisobala salokhu, ngithola inani eliphakeme lokususa liyinqaba okungenani.

Okungajwayelekile 2.
Ngezinye izikhathi inani lemibono liyancipha (okungukuthi, okungenakwenzeka), kodwa ngokushesha libuyela evamile.

Ngiyilandele ngengozi, ngenkathi ngilungisa uhlelo, lapho umsebenzi wokungenisa-ngaphandle ungakanamathiseli, ngakho-ke i-zigzag ehambisanayo ayikho kugrafu. Ungathatha izwi lami ngakho - lo mphumela ubonwe kabili. Ukubukwa kwezinkulungwane ezimbalwa, ngokuzumayo inani lokubuka liyancipha ngamakhulu ambalwa, ngemva kwemizuzu engu-10-20 libuyiselwa ezingeni langaphambili (ngaphandle kokucabangela ukwanda kwemvelo).

Lokhu kulula kakhulu: iphutha esizeni. Futhi akukho ongacabanga ngakho.

Okungajwayelekile 3.
Yilokhu okwabonakala kungaziwa kimi kunomphumela wesibili wokuzithandela wokuqala nobuchwepheshe. Ukuhlanganisa akwenzeki ngakunye, ngokusabalalisa okufanayo phakathi nenkathi, kodwa ngamabhulokhi. Kodwa ukwengeza akukona ukuphawula, lapho umbuzo ngokwemvelo ulandelwa impendulo, kuyisenzo somuntu ngamunye!

Bhekisisa amagrafu wemiphumela ashicilelwe ngenhla: amabhlogo ayabonakala.

Abantu abanolwazi bangivumela ngekhanda mayelana nokusatshalaliswa kwe-Poisson, kodwa angikwazi ukubala amathuba ngokwami. Uma ukwazi, yenza izibalo. Sekuvele kusobala kimi ukuthi inani lama-pluses aphindwe kabili lidlula kakhulu okujwayelekile.

Nansi idatha yedijithali yezinzuzo zengxenye yokuqala yokuthunyelwe. Igrafu ibonisa inani lama-pluss wesikhundla esisodwa, esiphindwe kabili kanye nekathathu enanini eliphelele lezilinganiso ezinikeziwe. Njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili, isikhawu sokulinganisa imizuzu eyi-10.

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Kuma-pokes angama-30 kumaseli angama-84, amaseli amabili aqhunyiswa kathathu. Hhayi-ke, angazi ukuthi lokhu kuhambisana kangakanani nethiyori yamathuba...

Idatha yengxenye yesibili yokuthunyelwe (njengoba isikhathi sokulinganisa siside, ngiyenza ibe mfushane ngokwesikhathi sengxenye yokuqala, ukuze iqhathaniswe):

Mayelana nezinto ezingavamile ze-habrostatistics

Ngendlela, lapha enye yama-pluses eyodwa iseduze nesikhathi sokuphindwe kathathu, okungukuthi, emaminithini angaba ngu-20 kwakukhona ukwanda kwama-pluses (29% yenani eliphelele lalingama-pluses). Futhi lokhu akwenzekanga emizuzwini yokuqala yokushicilela.

Ubudlelwano phakathi kwezikhundla ezingashadile, ezikabili kanye nezikathathu bucishe bufane nobengxenye yokuqala. Futhi ukwehla kwesabelo sezilinganiso ezilinganisweni kuchazwa iqiniso lokuthi izilinganiso zanikezwa kancane kancane. Izilinganiso zathathwa, kodwa azikho izinzuzo ezirekhodiwe.

Angikwazi ukuchaza lo mphumela we-block plus nganoma iyiphi indlela, okungukuthi, neze. Ngobubi, ukuziphatha okunjalo “okuvimbile” akubonakali kujwayelekile.

Ingabe abathumeli bokulunga bathumela iziphakamiso ngamaqoqo, bavule futhi bavale? Hehehehe...

PS
Uma noma ubani angathanda ukuhlaziya izibalo zokuthunyelwe esebenzisa izindlela ezithuthuke kakhulu noma ahlole izibalo, amafayela anedatha yomthombo alapha:
yadi.sk/d/iN4SL6tzsGEQxw

Angigcizeleli ekungabazeni kwami ​​- mhlawumbe nginephutha, ikakhulukazi njengoba izibalo zifiphele. Ngethemba ukuthi ukuphawula kwezibalo ezingochwepheshe, izazi zokusebenza kwengqondo nabanye abasebenzisi abanentshisekelo kuzocacisa ukudideka okuvelile.

Ngiyabonga ngokunaka kwakho.

Source: www.habr.com

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