"Ukuzivikela" ilebula elihle lezinto ezimbi.
UMilton Friedman "Inkululeko Yokukhetha"
Lo mbhalo utholwe ngenxa yokuhlaziya ukuphawula okuthile ezihlokweni и .
Lapho behumusha noma iyiphi idatha futhi befinyelela iziphetho, abanye abahlaziyi benza “iphutha losindile” elivamile.
Kuyini ukuchema kwabasindile? Lokhu kucatshangelwa okwaziwayo nokunganaki okungaziwa kodwa okukhona.
Isibonelo “sezindleko” zephutha losindile kanye nesibonelo sokunqoba leli phutha ngempumelelo umsebenzi wesazi sezibalo saseHungary u-Abraham Wald, owayesebenzela ibutho laseMelika phakathi neMpi Yezwe II.
Umyalo wabeka u-Wald umsebenzi wokuhlaziya izimbobo ezivela ezinhlamvu nezinhlamvu ezindizeni zaseMelika nokuphakamisa indlela yokubhuka ukuze abashayeli bezindiza nezindiza bangafi.
Kwakungenakwenzeka ukusebenzisa izikhali eziqhubekayo - indiza yayinzima kakhulu. Kwakudingeka ukuthi kugcinwe lezo zindawo lapho kunomonakalo khona, lapho kushaye khona izinhlamvu, noma lezo zindawo lapho kungekho monakalo khona. Abaphikisi baka-Wald baphakamise ukuthi kugcinwe izihlalo ezilimele (zimakwe ngamachashazi abomvu esithombeni).
U-Wald uphikile. Uthe izindiza ezinomonakalo onje zikwazile ukubuya, kanti izindiza ezinomonakalo kwezinye izindawo zingabuyi. Umbono ka-Wald uphumelele. Izindiza bezibhukwe lapho kungazange kwenzeke khona umonakalo endizeni ebuyayo. Ngenxa yalokho, inani lezindiza ezisindile landa kakhulu. Ngokweminye imibiko, uWald usindise izimpilo zabashayeli bamabhanoyi baseMelika abangaba ngu-30% ngale ndlela. (Kungenzeka ukuthi nginephutha ngezinombolo, kodwa umphumela ububaluleke kakhulu. U-Wald usindise amakhulukhulu ezimpilo).
Omunye umfanekiso “wokukhohlisa kosindile” ukulandisa kukaCicero ngamazwi kaDiagoras waseMelos, okwathi, ephendula impikiswano evuna izifungo konkulunkulu, ngoba “kunezithombe eziningi zokusindiswa kwabantu ababanjwa. ngesivunguvungu futhi wenza isifungo konkulunkulu ukwenza uhlobo oluthile lwesifungo,” kuphendula, “nokho, noma yiziphi izithombe zalabo abafela olwandle ngenxa yokuphahlazeka komkhumbi azikho.
Futhi "iphutha labasindile" lokuqala kumazwana esihlokweni ukuthi asazi ukuthi mingaki imibono emihle, ewusizo, ehlakaniphile, indalo, izinto ezisunguliwe, imisebenzi yesayensi eyangcwatshwa "okungathandwa" okuhlukahlukene, "ukunganakwa" kanye "nokuvinjelwa".
Ngizocaphuna amazwi kaMnu. : “Akekho ongazi ukuthi mingaki imibono emihle eputshuziwe, engashicilelwanga, engathuthukiswanga ngenxa yokwesaba ukuvalwa. Kube nemizamo eminingi egcine ngokuthula umbhali evalwa, naye. Okubonakalayo manje ukuthi mingaki imibono ephumelelayo ebonwa ngokushesha noma ngemva kwesikhathi, nokuthi mingaki engaphumeleli engaziwa. Uma uthembele kuphela kulokho okubonakalayo, yebo, konke kuhamba kahle.”
Lokhu kuyiqiniso kunoma iyiphi isistimu yokulinganisa ngokusekelwe kulokho okuthandwa iningi. Kungaba isayensi, amanethiwekhi omphakathi, izinjini zokusesha, izizwe zakudala, amaqembu ezenkolo noma eminye imiphakathi yabantu.
“Ukuvinjelwa” kanye “nokungathandi” akwenzeki ngaso sonke isikhathi ngenxa “yenhloso embi.” Ukusabela "kwentukuthelo" kokuthile okusha nokungavamile ukusabela okujwayelekile ngokomzimba nangokwengqondo okubizwa ngokuthi i-buzzword "cognitive dissonance" - kumane kuyisici sazo zonke izinhlobo ze-Homo sapiens, hhayi impahla yanoma yiliphi iqembu elithile. Kodwa iqembu ngalinye lingase libe nezinto zalo ezicasulayo. Futhi "okusha" futhi "okungavamile", intukuthelo inamandla, i-dissonance inamandla. Futhi udinga ukulawula i-psyche yakho kahle kakhulu ukuze ungahlaseli "umenzi wezinkinga". Okungukuthi, nokho, akumthetheleli neze umhlukumezi. "Umphazamisi" kuphela "uthukuthele," kuyilapho izenzo zomhlaseli zihloselwe ukubhubhisa.
Iphutha losindile lingatholakala futhi kumazwana esihlokweni. . Futhi iphathelene nokugunyazwa kwezidakamizwa.
Ngezansi ngizonikeza isicaphuna esikhulu esivela encwadini ethi “Inkululeko Yokukhetha” kaNobel owazuza umklomelo weNobel kwezomnotho uMilton Friedman, kodwa okwamanje ngizophawula nje ukuthi inani elikhulu lezivivinyo zemitholampilo, izitifiketi nezinye izinto ngenxa yesizathu esithile azenzisi bonke abantu. ukuze ugonywe, thatha ama-antibiotics nama-hormone abekiwe. Labo. Ukunikeza ilayisense nesitifiketi “akusebenzi” kuleli cala. Ngasikhathi sinye, baningi impela abantu abasebenzisa izithasiselo zokudla noma i-homeopathy, okungeyona (ukuyibeka kancane) ngaphansi kokulawulwa okubucayi njengemithi. Baningi abantu abancamela ukuphendukela ezangomeni nakubalaphi bendabuko, esikhundleni sokuya kudokotela baphuze “ikhemistri”, enamalayisense, izitifiketi futhi ephumelele izilawuli eziningi nezivivinyo.
Intengo yesinqumo esinjalo ingaba phezulu kakhulu - kusukela ekukhubazekeni kuya ekufeni. Ukufa okusheshayo. Isikhathi isiguli esisichitha ekwelapheni ngezithako zokudla, ukunganaki amakhemikhali nokuvakashela udokotela, kubangela ithuba elilahlekile lokwelapha lesi sifo kusenesikhathi, okuthiwa. "Isikhawu esicacile".
Kubalulekile ukuqonda ukuthi ngaphambi kokuba umuthi uthunyelwe "ukuthola isitifiketi", inkampani eyenza imithi yenza izivivinyo nezilawuli zayo eziningi, okuhlanganisa. emphakathini.
Isitifiketi siphinda le nqubo kuphela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezweni ngalinye konke kuphindaphindiwe, okugcina kwandisa izindleko zomuthi kumthengi.
Lokhu kube ukwehla okuncane esihlokweni. Manje, ukufushanisa kakhulu, ngicaphuna uMilton Friedman.
«Ukuhlela imisebenzi ehlangene ezuzisa abantu ngokuhlanganyela akudingi ukungenelela kwamandla angaphandle, ukuphoqelelwa noma ukuvinjelwa kwenkululeko... Manje kunobufakazi obuningi bokuthi imisebenzi yokulawula ye-FDA iyingozi, ukuthi yenze umonakalo omkhulu ngokuvimbela inqubekelaphambili ekukhiqizeni nasekusabalaliseni izidakamizwa eziwusizo kunokuhle ngokuvikela imakethe emithini eyingozi nengasebenzi.
Umthelela we-Food and Drug Administration (FDA) ngezinga lokwethulwa kwemithi emisha ubaluleke kakhulu... manje kuthatha isikhathi eside kakhulu ukuthola umuthi omusha ugunyazwe futhi, ngokwengxenye, izindleko zokukhiqiza imithi emisha. ziye zanda kakhulu ... ukwethula umkhiqizo omusha emakethe udinga ukusebenzisa amaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-54 kanye neminyaka engaba ngu-8, i.e. kube nokukhuphuka kwezindleko okuphindwe kayikhulu kanye nokwenyuka kwesikhathi okuphindwe kane uma kuqhathaniswa nokwenyuka okuphindwe kabili kwamanani entengo. Ngenxa yalokho, izinkampani zemithi zase-US azisakwazi ukwenza imithi emisha yokwelapha iziguli ezinezifo ezingavamile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, asikwazi ngisho ukusizakala ngokugcwele ngentuthuko yangaphandle, njengoba i-Ejensi ingamukeli ubufakazi obuvela phesheya njengobufakazi bokusebenza kwezidakamizwa.
Ngokwesibonelo, uma uhlola ukubaluleka kokwelapha kwemithi engazange yethulwe e-United States kodwa etholakala eNgilandi, uzohlangana nezimo eziningi lapho iziguli ziye zahlupheka khona ngenxa yokuntuleka kwezidakamizwa. Ngokwesibonelo, kunemithi ebizwa ngokuthi ama-beta blockers engavimbela ukufa ngenxa yokuhlaselwa yinhliziyo—okwesibili ukuvimbela ukufa okubangelwa isifo senhliziyo—uma le mithi ibitholakala e-United States. bebengasindisa ukuphila okungaba yizinkulungwane eziyishumi ngonyaka...
Umphumela ongaqondile wesiguli ukuthi izinqumo zokwelapha, ebeziphakathi kukadokotela nesiguli, ziya ngokuya zenziwa ezingeni likazwelonke ngamakomiti ochwepheshe. Ku-Food and Drug Administration, ukugwema ubungozi kuyinto ehamba phambili futhi, ngenxa yalokho, sinezidakamizwa eziphephile, kodwa azikho ezisebenzayo.
Akukona nje ukuqondana ukuthi i-Food and Drug Administration, naphezu kwezinhloso zayo ezinhle, ithatha isinyathelo sokudikibalisa ukuthuthukiswa nokumakethwa kwezidakamizwa ezintsha nezingase zibe usizo.
Zibeke ezicathulweni zesikhulu se-FDA esinesibopho sokugunyaza noma ukungavumeli umuthi omusha. Ungenza amaphutha amabili:
1. Gunyaza umuthi, okunomphumela ongalindelekile ozophumela ekufeni noma ekuwohlokeni okukhulu kwempilo yenani elikhulu labantu.
2. Yenqaba ukugunyaza umuthi, okungasindisa ukuphila kwabantu abaningi noma kunciphise ukuhlupheka okukhulu futhi okungenayo imiphumela emibi.
Uma wenza iphutha lokuqala futhi ugunyaza, igama lakho lizovela emakhasini okuqala awo wonke amaphephandaba. Uzowela ehlazweni elibi. Uma wenze iphutha lesibili, ubani ozokwazi? Inkampani eyenza imithi ethuthukisa umuthi omusha ongabhekwa njengesibonelo sosomabhizinisi abahahayo abanezinhliziyo zetshe? Osokhemisi abambalwa abathukuthele kanye nodokotela abakha futhi bahlole umuthi omusha?
Iziguli ebezingasindiswa izimpilo zazo ngeke zisakwazi ukubhikisha. Imindeni yabo ngeke yazi nokuthi abantu ababakhathalelayo balahlekelwe izimpilo zabo ngenxa “yobuhlakani” besikhulu esingaziwa seFood and Drug Administration.
Ngisho noma unezinhloso ezinhle kakhulu emhlabeni, ungavimbela izidakamizwa eziningi ezinhle ungaqondile noma ubambezele ukuvunyelwa kwazo ukuze ugweme ngisho nethuba elikude lokuvumela umuthi emakethe ongaba nomthelela omubi wokuba sematheni...
Ukulimala okubangelwa imisebenzi yeFood and Drug Administration akuwona umphumela wokushiyeka kwabantu abasezikhundleni zomthwalo wemfanelo. Abaningi babo bangabasebenzi bakahulumeni abanekhono nabazinikele. Nokho, izingcindezi zezenhlalo, zezombangazwe, nezomnotho zinquma ukuziphatha kwabantu abanomthwalo wemfanelo enhlanganweni kahulumeni ngaphezu kokuba bona benquma ukuziphatha kwayo. Kukhona okuhlukile, akungabazeki, kodwa cishe kuyivelakancane njengamakati akhonkothayo." Ukuphela kokucaphuna.
Ngakho, “iphutha losindile” ekuhloleni ukuphumelela kwendikimba elawulayo “kubiza” isintu ukuphila kuka-10000 XNUMX ngonyaka ngomuthi owodwa nje ezweni elilodwa. Ubukhulu bayo yonke ingxenye engabonakali yale “ntaba yeqhwa” kunzima ukuyilinganisela. Futhi, mhlawumbe, scary.
“Iziguli ebezingasindiswa izimpilo zazo ngeke zisakwazi ukuzwakalisa ukukhalaza kwazo. Imindeni yabo ngeke yazi nanokuthi abantu ababathandayo balahlekelwa ukuphila kwabo ngenxa “yesixwayiso” sesikhulu esingaziwa.. Akekho nomkhiqizi ongenandaba noyedwa obangele umonakalo onjalo kuzakhamuzi ezikanye nazo.
Phakathi kwezinye izinto, isevisi yezitifiketi ibiza kakhulu kubakhokhi bentela. Labo. kubo bonke abahlali. Ngokwezibalo zikaMilton Friedman, isabelo "sokudliwa" yizikhulu ezilawula izinhlelo ezihlukahlukene zezenhlalakahle e-United States cishe ingxenye yesamba senani lentela eyabelwe izinzuzo ezihlukahlukene zomphakathi. Le ngxenye isetshenziselwa amaholo kanye nezinye izindleko zezikhulu ezivela ohlelweni lokusabalalisa umphakathi kanye nokulawula. Noma yiliphi ibhizinisi ngabe kade lifadalala ngenxa yezindleko ezinje ezingakhiqizi.
Lokhu kufana nokukhokhela uweta wesevisi embi endaweni yokudlela ithiphu elilingana nezindleko zesidlo sakusihlwa. Noma khokhela ukupakishwa kwemikhiqizo esuphamakethe ngenani lezindleko zayo ezigcwele kuphela ngenxa yokuthi izopakishwa wena.
Ukuba khona kwesikhulu ochungechungeni lomkhiqizi-impahla-umthengi noma umthengi wesevisi kuphinda kabili izindleko zanoma yimuphi umkhiqizo nesevisi. Labo. Iholo lanoma imuphi umuntu lalingase lithenge inani eliphindwe kabili lezimpahla nezinkonzo uma isikhulu singabandakanyeki ekulawuleni lezi zimpahla namasevisi.
Njengoba uMahluleli uLouis Brandeis asho: “Okuhlangenwe nakho kufundisa ukuthi inkululeko idinga isivikelo ngokukhethekile lapho uhulumeni eqondiswe ezinjongweni ezizuzisayo.”
Ukunikezwa kwelayisensi, kanye nezinye izindlela ezivimbelayo zokulawula (ukucindezeleka) umnotho, akukusha nhlobo futhi bekwaziwa kusukela ngeNkathi Ephakathi. Zonke izinhlobo zezinhlangano, ama-castes, izindawo azilutho ngaphandle kokuthola amalayisense kanye nezitifiketi, ezihunyushelwe olimini lwanamuhla. Futhi umgomo wabo ubulokhu ufana - ukunciphisa ukuncintisana, ukukhulisa amanani, ukwandisa imali engenayo "yabo" futhi kuvimbele "abangaphandle" ukuba bangene. Labo. ukucwasa okufanayo kanye nesivumelwano se-banal cartel, ukubhebhetheka kwekhwalithi nokwenyuka kwamanani kubathengi.
Mhlawumbe sidinga ukuthi ngandlela-thile siphume eNkathini Ephakathi? Yikhulunyaka lama-21.
Izingozi emigwaqeni zidalwa abashayeli abanamalungelo namalayisensi. Amaphutha ezokwelapha enziwa ngodokotela abagunyaziwe nabanelayisensi. Othisha abanamalayisense nabanesitifiketi bafundisa kabi futhi babangela ukuhlukumezeka ngokomqondo kubafundi. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abelaphi, ama-homeopaths, ama-shaman nama-charlatans baphatha kahle ngaphandle kwamalayisensi nezivivinyo futhi bayachuma kahle, benza ibhizinisi labo, banelise isidingo sabantu.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, wonke lawa malayisensi nezimvume zondla izikhulu eziningi ezingakhiqizi noma yiziphi izimpahla noma izinsiza eziwusizo ezakhamuzini, kodwa ngesizathu esithile enelungelo lokunqumela isakhamuzi lapho singathola khona ukwelashwa futhi sifunde ngezintela zaso.
Umuntu angamangala ukuthi, naphezu kwe-vector evimbelayo yomsebenzi wezikhulu, izinkampani zemithi zisakwazi ukubhalisa izidakamizwa eziningi ekhulwini lama-20 ezasindisa izigidi zabantu.
Futhi umuntu angethuswa kuphela ukuthi zingaki izidakamizwa ezingakhiwanga, ezingabhalisiwe, futhi zibhekwa njengezingathembisi ngokwezomnotho ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme kanye nobude benqubo yokunikeza amalayisense. Kuyashaqisa ukuthi bangaki abantu abalahlekelwe izimpilo zabo nempilo yabo ngenxa yezenzo ezivimbelayo zezikhulu.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuba khona kwenani elikhulu lamalayisensi, ukulawula, ukuqondisa nokuhlawulisa izikhulu kanye neziphathimandla akuzange kunciphise nakancane inani lama-charlatans, amakhambi esintu, zonke izinhlobo zama-panaceas namaphilisi omlingo. Ezinye zazo zikhiqizwa ngaphansi kwesihenqo sezithako zokudla, ezinye zisakazwa ngokudlula noma yimaphi amakhemisi, izitolo kanye neziphathimandla.
Ingabe kufanele siqhubeke nokuphusha indlela engalungile yokunikezwa kwamalayisensi nokulawulwa? Angicabangi.
Uma ubuchopho bomfundi ohlonishwayo oyiqhawe ofunde lesi sihloko kwaze kwaba sekugcineni abukavuthi nge-violent cognitive dissonance, ngifuna ukuncoma izincwadi ezine zokuthi “priming”, ezibhalwe ngolimi olulula kakhulu futhi zicekele phansi izinganekwane eziningi mayelana ne-capitalism, abasindile. iphutha, ezomnotho kanye nokulawulwa kukahulumeni. Lezi yizincwadi: UMilton Friedman "Inkululeko yokuzikhethela" Ayn Rand "I-capitalism. "I-Ideal Engajwayelekile" USteven Levitt "Freakonomics" UMalcolm Gladwell "Izihlakaniphi nabangaphandle" UFrederic Bastia "Yini ebonakalayo nengabonakali."
А Esinye isihloko esimayelana “nephutha losindile” sithunyelwe.
Imifanekiso: , , .
PS Bafundi abathandekayo, ngiyanicela ukuba nikhumbule ukuthi “Isitayela se-polemic sibaluleke kakhulu kunesihloko se-polemic. Izinto ziyashintsha, kodwa isitayela sidala impucuko.” (Grigory Pomerantz). Uma ngingaphendulanga ukuphawula kwakho, khona-ke kukhona okungalungile ngesitayela se-polemic yakho.
Ukwengeza.
Ngiyaxolisa kuwo wonke umuntu obhale ukuphawula okunengqondo futhi angizange ngiphendule. Iqiniso liwukuthi omunye wabasebenzisi ungene emkhubeni wokwehlisa imibono yami. Njalo. Ngokushesha lapho kuvela. Lokhu kungivimbela ekuzuzeni "inkokhelo" nokufaka i-plus ku-karma kanye nokuphendula labo ababhala imibono enengqondo.
Kodwa uma usafuna ukuthola impendulo futhi nixoxe ngesihloko, ungangibhalela umlayezo oyimfihlo. Ngiyabaphendula.
Isengezo 2.
"Iphutha Losindile" usebenzisa lesi sihloko njengesibonelo.
Kusukela kulokhu kubhalwa, i-athikili inokubukwa okungu-33,9k namazwana ayi-141.
Ake sicabange ukuthi iningi lazo alilungile maqondana nesihloko.
Labo. Lesi sihloko safundwa abantu abangu-33900. Kuthethiswe 100. 339 izikhathi ngaphansi.
Labo. Uma sihlanganisa cishe kakhulu futhi ngokucabangela, khona-ke umbhali akanalo idatha ngemibono yabafundi abangu-33800, kodwa kuphela ngemibono yabafundi abayi-100 (empeleni, ngisho nangaphansi, njengoba abanye abafundi beshiya imibono embalwa).
Futhi wenzani umbhali, i.e. ngifunde amacomments? Ngenza "iphutha losindile" elijwayelekile. Ngihlaziya "imizuzu" eyikhulu kuphela, ngokuphelele (ngokwengqondo) indiva iqiniso lokuthi lezi ziyi-0,3% kuphela yemibono. Futhi ngokusekelwe kulawa 0,3%, angaphakathi kwephutha lezibalo, ngiphetha ngokuthi angizange ngithande isihloko. Ngicasukile, ngaphandle kokuba nesizathu esincane salokhu, uma ucabanga ngokunengqondo hhayi ngokomzwelo.
Lokho. “Inkohliso yabasindile” ayikho emkhakheni wezibalo kuphela, kodwa futhi mhlawumbe nasemkhakheni wesayensi yezokusebenza kwengqondo kanye ne-neurophysiology, okwenza ukutholwa kwayo nokulungiswa kube “umsebenzi obuhlungu” wobuchopho bomuntu.
Isengezo 3.
Nakuba lokhu kungaphezu kobubanzi balesi sihloko, njengoba indaba yokulawulwa kwekhwalithi yezidakamizwa kuxoxwa ngayo kakhulu kumazwana, ngiphendula wonke umuntu ngesikhathi esisodwa.
Enye indlela yokulawula umbuso kungaba ukwakhiwa kwamalabhorethri angochwepheshe abazimele azohlola ikhwalithi yemithi, eqhudelana yodwa. (Futhi amalabhorethri anjalo, imiphakathi, izinhlangano nezikhungo sezivele zikhona emhlabeni).
Lizonikezani? Okokuqala, kuzoqeda inkohlakalo, njengoba kuzohlala kunethuba lokuhlola kabili nokuphikisa idatha yokuhlolwa okukhohlakele. Okwesibili, kuzoba ngokushesha futhi ishibhile. Ngoba nje ibhizinisi elizimele lihlala lisebenza kahle kunebhizinisi likahulumeni. Okwesithathu, ilabhorethri yochwepheshe izothengisa izinsizakalo zayo, okusho ukuthi izobhekana nekhwalithi, imigomo, amanani.Konke lokhu kuzonciphisa ngokuhlanganyela izindleko zemithi ekhemisi. Okwesine, uma iphakethe lingenalo uphawu ekuhlolweni elabhorethri yochwepheshe ezimele, noma amabili noma amathathu, umthengi uzoqonda ukuthi umuthi awuhloliwe. Noma ihlolwe izikhathi eziningi. Futhi "uzovota nge-ruble yakhe" kulokhu noma lowo mkhiqizi wemithi.
Isengezo 4.
Ngicabanga ukuthi kubalulekile ukucabangela ukwenzelela kosindile lapho uklama i-AI, ama-algorithms okufunda komshini, njll.
Labo. faka ohlelweni lokuqeqesha hhayi izibonelo ezaziwayo kuphela, kodwa futhi ne-delta ethile, mhlawumbe ngisho namamodeli wethiyori "okungenzeka angaziwa".
Ukusebenzisa isibonelo se-AI "umdwebo", lokhu kungase kube, ngokwemibandela, "van Gogh + delta", khona-ke ngenani elikhulu le-delta, umshini uzodala isihlungi esisekelwe ku-van Gogh, kodwa sihluke ngokuphelele kuye.
Ukuqeqeshwa okufanayo kungase kube kuyasiza lapho kunokuntuleka kwedatha: imithi, izakhi zofuzo, i-quantum physics, i-astronomy, njll.
(Ngiyaxolisa uma ngikuchazile “ngokugwegwile”).
Inothi (ngethemba elokugcina)
Kuwo wonke umuntu ofunde kwaze kwaba sekupheleni - “Ngiyabonga.” Ngijabule kakhulu ukubona “amabhukumaka” kanye “nokubukwa” kwakho.
Source: www.habr.com