Uchungechunge lwesikhathi esidingweni sokubikezela, ukulayisha ezikhungweni zokusabalalisa, izincomo zomkhiqizo kanye nokusesha okudidayo

I-athikili ixoxa ngezindawo zokusetshenziswa kochungechunge lwesikhathi, izinkinga okufanele zixazululwe, kanye nama-algorithms asetshenzisiwe. Ukubikezela kochungechunge lwesikhathi kusetshenziswa emisebenzini efana nesidingo sokubikezela, umthwalo wesikhungo sokuxhumana, ithrafikhi yomgwaqo ne-inthanethi, ukuxazulula inkinga yokuqala okubandayo ezinhlelweni zokuncoma, kanye nokusesha okudidayo ekuziphatheni kwemishini nabasebenzisi.

Ake sibheke imisebenzi ngokuningiliziwe.

1) Funa ukubikezela.

Umgomo: ukunciphisa izindleko ze-warehouse nokwandisa amashejuli omsebenzi wabasebenzi.

Ixazululwa kanjani: ukuba nesibikezelo sokuthengwa kwezimpahla kanye nenani lamakhasimende, sinciphisa inani lezimpahla endaweni yokugcina izimpahla futhi sigcine ngokulingana nezizothengwa ebangeni lesikhathi esinikeziwe. Ngokwazi inani lamaklayenti nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, sizodweba uhlelo lokusebenza olufanele ukuze kube nenani elanele labasebenzi elinenani elincane lezindleko.

2) Ukubikezela umthwalo wenkonzo yokulethwa

Umgomo: ukuvimbela ukuwohloka kwezinto ngesikhathi sokulayisha okuphezulu.

Indlela yokuyixazulula: ukubikezela inani lama-oda, ulethe inani eliphelele lezimoto nezithunywa emgqeni.

3) Ukubikezela umthwalo esikhungweni sokuxhumana

Umgomo: ukuqinisekisa ukutholakala okudingekile kwesikhungo sokuxhumana kuyilapho unciphisa izindleko zesikhwama samaholo.

Ixazululwa kanjani: ukubikezela inani lezingcingo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kudala uhlelo olufanele lwabasebenzisi.

4) Ukubikezela kwethrafikhi

Umgomo: bikezela inani lamaseva kanye nomkhawulokudonsa wokusebenza okuzinzile. Ukuze isevisi yakho ingaphahlazeki ngosuku lokuqala kochungechunge lwe-TV oludumile noma umdlalo webhola 😉

5) Ukubikezela isikhathi esilungile sokuqoqwa kwe-ATM

Umgomo: ukunciphisa inani lemali egcinwe kunethiwekhi ye-ATM

6) Izixazululo zenkinga yokuqala ebandayo ezinhlelweni zokuncoma

Umgomo: Ncoma imikhiqizo efanele kubasebenzisi abasha.

Uma umsebenzisi ethenge kaningi, i-algorithm yokuhlunga ehlanganyelwe ingakhelwa izincomo, kodwa uma lungekho ulwazi mayelana nomsebenzisi, kulungile ukuncoma imikhiqizo edume kakhulu.

Isixazululo: Ukuduma kwemikhiqizo kuncike esikhathini lapho isincomo senziwe. Ukusebenzisa ukubikezela kochungechunge lwesikhathi kusiza ukuhlonza imikhiqizo efanele nganoma yisiphi isikhathi.

Sibheke ama-hacks empilo okwakha amasistimu wokuncoma kuwo isihloko esandulele.

7) Sesha okudidayo

Umgomo: ukuhlonza izinkinga ekusebenzeni kwemishini kanye nezimo ezingezona ezijwayelekile ebhizinisini
Isixazululo: Uma inani elilinganisiwe lingaphandle kwesikhawu sokuzithemba kwesibikezelo, kutholwe okudidayo. Uma lesi kuyisizinda samandla enuzi, sekuyisikhathi sokwandisa isikwele sebanga 😉

Ama-algorithms okuxazulula inkinga

1) Isilinganiso esihambayo

I-algorithm elula isilinganiso esihambayo. Ake sibale inani elimaphakathi ezicini ezimbalwa zokugcina futhi senze isibikezelo. Ezibikezelweni zesimo sezulu ezinde kunezinsuku eziyi-10, kusetshenziswa indlela efanayo.

Uma kubalulekile ukuthi amanani okugcina ochungechungeni anikele ngesisindo esengeziwe, sethula ama-coefficient ngokuya ngebanga ledethi, sithola imodeli enesisindo:

Ngakho-ke, ungasetha i-coefficient W ukuze isisindo esiphezulu siwele ezinsukwini zokugcina ezingu-2 kanye nezinsuku zokungena.

Ukucabangela izici zomjikelezo

Ikhwalithi yezincomo ingase ithintwe yizici zomjikelezo, njengokuqondana nosuku lweviki, idethi, amaholide andulele, njll.

Ilayisi. 1. Isibonelo sokubola kochungechunge lwesikhathi lube yithrendi, ingxenye yesizini nomsindo

I-Exponential smoothing iyisixazululo sokucabangela izici zomjikelezo.

Ake sibheke izindlela ezi-3 eziyisisekelo

1. Ukushelela okulula (Imodeli ensundu)

Imele ukubalwa kwesilinganiso esinesisindo ezintweni ezingu-2 zokugcina zochungechunge.

2. Ukushelela kabili (imodeli ye-Holt)

Icabangela izinguquko kuthrendi kanye nokuguquguquka kwamanani ayinsalela kulo mkhuba.

Sibala ukubikezela kwezinguquko kuzinsalela ® nethrendi (d). Inani lokugcina lika-y yisamba salezi zibalo ezimbili.

3. Ukushelela okuthathu (imodeli ye-Holt-Winters)

Ukushelela okuthathu kuphinde kucabangele ukuhlukahluka kwesizini.

Amafomula okushelela kathathu.

I-algorithm ye-ARIMA ne-SARIMA

Okukhethekile kochungechunge lwesikhathi lokusetshenziswa kwe-ARIMA ukuxhumana phakathi kwamanani esikhathi esedlule ahlotshaniswa nawamanje nawesikhathi esizayo.

I-SARIMA - isandiso sochungechunge olunengxenye yesizini. I-SARIMAX isandiso esifaka ingxenye yangaphandle yokuhlehla.

Amamodeli we-ARIMA akuvumela ukuthi ulingise uchungechunge lwesikhathi oluhlanganisiwe noma oluhlukile.

Indlela ye-ARIMA ochungechungeni lwesikhathi ukuthi ukuma kochungechunge kuqala kuhlolwa.

Okulandelayo, uchungechunge luguqulwa ngokuthatha umehluko we-oda elifanele, futhi imodeli ye-ARMA yakhelwe imodeli eguquliwe.

I-ARMA iwumugqa wemodeli yokuhlehla okuningi.

Kubalulekile ukuthi uchungechunge lumile, i.e. isilinganiso nokuhluka akuzange kushintshe. Uma uchungechunge lungamile, kufanele ilethwe ngendlela enganyakazi.

XGBoost - ngabe sikuphi ngaphandle kwayo?

Uma uchungechunge lungenaso isakhiwo esiveziwe sangaphakathi, kodwa kunezici zangaphandle ezithonyayo (umphathi, isimo sezulu, njll.), lapho-ke ungasebenzisa ngokuphephile amamodeli okufunda omshini afana nokukhuphula, amahlathi angahleliwe, ukuhlehla, amanethiwekhi emizwa ne-SVM.

Kusuka kokuhlangenwe nakho kweqembu IDATHA4, ukubikezela kochungechunge lwesikhathi, omunye wemisebenzi eyinhloko yokuxazulula ukwenziwa kahle kwezindleko ze-warehouse, izindleko zabasebenzi, ukuthuthukisa ukugcinwa kwamanethiwekhi e-ATM, izinto kanye nezinhlelo zokuncoma izakhiwo. Amamodeli ayinkimbinkimbi afana ne-SARIMA anikeza imiphumela yekhwalithi ephezulu, kodwa adla isikhathi futhi afanele uhla oluthile lwemisebenzi kuphela.

Esihlokweni esilandelayo sizobheka izindlela eziyinhloko zokusesha okungaqondakali.

Ukuqinisekisa ukuthi izindatshana zihambisana nezinto ozithakaselayo, thatha inhlolovo engezansi, noma ubhale kumazwana ukuthi yiziphi izihloko ongabhala ngazo ezihlokweni ezilandelayo.

Abasebenzisi ababhalisiwe kuphela abangabamba iqhaza kuhlolovo. Ngena ngemvume, wamukelekile.

Izihloko ezikusiphi isihloko onentshisekelo kuzo?

• Amasistimu wokuncoma

• Ukuqashelwa kwesithombe

• Inkulumo nokucubungula umbhalo

• Izakhiwo ezintsha ku-DNN

• Uchungechunge lwesikhathi nosesho oludidayo

• ML ebhizinisini, sebenzisa amacala

Bangu-17 abasebenzisi abavotile. Abasebenzisi abangu-3 bayenqaba.

Source: www.habr.com