CAGR a matsayin la'anar ƙwararru, ko kurakurai a cikin tsinkayar matakai masu fa'ida

Daga cikin wadanda ke karanta wannan rubutu, ba shakka, akwai kwararru da yawa. Kuma, ba shakka, kowa yana da masaniya a fanninsa kuma yana da kyakkyawan kimantawa game da makomar fasahohin daban-daban da ci gabansa. A lokaci guda kuma, tarihi (wanda "ya koyar da cewa ba ya koyar da kome") ya san misalai da yawa lokacin da masana suka yi kisa daban-daban kuma sun rasa ta da babban gefe: 

• “Wayar tarho tana da kurakurai da yawa da za a yi la’akari da ita a matsayin hanyar sadarwa. Na'urar ba ta da wani amfani a gare mu," in ji kwararrun. Western Union, sannan shine mafi girman kamfanin telegraph a 1876. 
• “Radio ba shi da makoma. Jirgin sama mai nauyi fiye da iska ba zai yiwu ba. X-ray zai zama yaudara,” inji shi William Thomson Ubangiji Kelvin a cikin 1899, kuma wanda zai iya, ba shakka, ba'a cewa masana kimiyya na Birtaniya sun sake girgiza shi a cikin karni na XNUMX, amma za mu auna yawan zafin jiki a Kelvin na dogon lokaci, kuma babu wani dalili na shakkar cewa Ubangiji mai daraja yana da kyau. masanin kimiyyar lissafi. 
• "Wane ne jahannama yake so ya ji 'yan wasan kwaikwayo suna magana?" in ji game da talkies Harry Warner, wanda ya kafa Warner Brothers a shekarar 1927, daya daga cikin manyan masana harkar fim a lokacin. 
• "Babu dalilin da yasa kowa ke buƙatar kwamfutar gida," Ken Olson, wanda ya kafa Kamfanin Kayayyakin Dijital a shekarar 1977, jim kadan kafin tashin kwamfutocin gida...
• A zamanin yau, babu abin da ya canza: "Babu wata dama cewa iPhone zai sami babban rabon kasuwa," in ji Shugaba na Microsoft a USA Today. Steve Ballmer a cikin Afrilu 2007 kafin haɓakar haɓakar wayoyin hannu.

Mutum zai iya yin dariya da farin ciki game da waɗannan tsinkaya idan bawanka mai tawali'u, alal misali, ba shi da kansa ya yi kuskure sosai a filinsa ba. Kuma idan ban ga yawan adadin ba, masana da yawa sun yi kuskure. Gabaɗaya, akwai classic "wannan bai taɓa faruwa ba, kuma ga shi kuma." Kuma a sake. Kuma a sake. Haka kuma, masana da kwararru halakarwa ga kurakurai A lokuta da dama. Musamman idan aka zo ga waɗancan la'antattun hanyoyin ma'auni. 

Oh na, wannan mai gabatarwa

Matsala ta farko tare da matakai masu mahimmanci ita ce ko da sanin yadda sauri suke girma a ma'anar lissafi (a tsawon lokaci guda sigoginsu suna canzawa sau ɗaya), a matakin yau da kullun yana da matukar wahala a yi tunanin irin wannan girma. Misali na al'ada: idan muka ci gaba taki daya, to a cikin matakai 30 za mu yi tafiyar mita 30, amma idan kowane mataki ya girma sosai, to a cikin matakai 30 za mu kewaya duniya sau 26 ("Sau ashirin da shida, Karl !!! ") tare da equator:

source: Yadda Ake Yin Tunani Mai Girma da Kyau Hasashen Gaba

Tambaya ga masu shirye-shirye: menene akai-akai muke tadawa zuwa iko a wannan yanayin?

AmsaMatsakaicin daidai yake da 2, watau. ninki biyu a kowane mataki.
Lokacin da tsari ya girma sosai, yana haifar da sauye-sauye masu yawa waɗanda ke bayyane ga ido tsirara. An bayar da kyakkyawan misali ta hanyar Tony Seba. A cikin 1900, a kan Titin Fifth a New York, yana da wuya a ga mota ita kaɗai a cikin karusan doki:

Kuma kawai bayan shekaru 13, a kan titi ɗaya, da kyar za ku iya ganin wani abin hawan doki a cikin motocin.

Muna ganin hoto irin wannan, alal misali, tare da wayoyin hannu. История Nokia, wacce ta hau igiyar ruwa guda daya kuma ita ce jagora na dogon lokaci ta tazara mai fa'ida, amma ta kasa shiga igiyar ruwa ta gaba kuma kusan nan take ta rasa kasuwa (duba babban tashin hankali tare da shugabannin kasuwa a shekara) yana da koyarwa sosai.

Duk kwararrun kwamfuta sun sani Dokar Moore, wanda a zahiri an tsara shi don transistor kuma ya kasance gaskiya tsawon shekaru 40. Wasu abokan aikin sun haɗa shi zuwa bututu da na'urorin inji kuma suna da'awar cewa ya yi aiki tsawon shekaru 120. Ya dace don nuna matakai masu ma'ana tare da ma'auni na logarithmic, wanda a cikinsa suka zama (kusan) madaidaiciya kuma a bayyane yake cewa irin wannan gaba ɗaya yana da haƙƙin wanzuwa:

Source: Wannan da wadannan jadawali biyu daga Dokar Moore sama da Shekaru 120  

A kan ma'auni na layi, haɓaka yana kama da wani abu kamar haka:

Kuma a nan a hankali za mu kusanci zango na biyu na matakai masu ma'ana. Idan girma ya kasance haka har tsawon shekaru 120, wannan yana nufin cewa ƙimar mu za ta kasance iri ɗaya na aƙalla wasu shekaru 10?

A aikace ya bayyana cewa a'a. A cikin tsari mai tsabta, yawan haɓakar ƙididdiga yana raguwa shekaru da yawa, wanda ya ba mu damar yin magana game da "mutuwar dokar Moore":

source:  Kamar yadda Dokar Moore ta ƙare, haɓaka kayan aiki yana ɗaukar matakin tsakiya

Bugu da ƙari, yana da ban sha'awa cewa wannan lanƙwasa ba zai iya daidaitawa kawai ba, amma kuma ya hau tare da sabuntawar kuzari. Bawanka mai tawali'u dalla-dalla yadda hakan zai iya faruwa. Ee, za a sami wasu ƙididdigewa (waɗanda ba daidai ba ne na cibiyar sadarwa), amma a ƙarshe, idan abacus da ƙididdige ƙididdiga na inji sun faɗaɗa sikelin zuwa shekaru 120, to, masu haɓaka jijiyoyi sun dace sosai a can. Duk da haka, muna yin kuskure.

Yana da muhimmanci a fahimci haka Ƙimar girma na iya tsayawa saboda fasaha, jiki, tattalin arziki da dalilai na zamantakewa (Jerin bai cika ba). Kuma wannan shi ne babban kwanto na biyu na matakai masu ma'ana - don yin hasashen daidai lokacin da lanƙwasa ta fara barin ma'anar. Kurakurai a bangarorin biyu sun zama ruwan dare a nan.

Jimlar:

• Kwanto na farko na girma mai girma shine cewa mai nuna alama yana girma da sauri da sauri har ma ga kwararru. Kuma rashin la'akari da ma'anar kuskure ne na gargajiya da ake maimaita akai-akai. Kamar yadda ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararru suka ce shekaru 100 da suka gabata: “Tankuna, maza, salon salo ne, amma sojan doki madawwami ne!”
• Matsala ta biyu tare da girma mai ma'ana shine cewa a wani lokaci (wani lokaci bayan shekaru 40 ko 120) yana ƙarewa, kuma ba shi da sauƙi a faɗi daidai lokacin da zai ƙare. Har ma da dokar Moore, wanda yawancin 'yan jarida masu fasaha suka bar bugu na kofato, a lokacin mutuwarsu. zai iya komawa bakin aiki tare da sabunta kuzari. Kuma ba zai zama kamar isa ba! 

Mahimman matakai da kama kasuwa

Idan muka yi magana game da canje-canjen da ake gani a kusa da mu da kasuwa, yana da ban sha'awa don ganin yadda fasaha daban-daban suka ci kasuwa. Zai fi dacewa don yin wannan ta amfani da misalin Amurka, inda sama da shekaru 100 ana kiyaye nau'ikan kididdigar kasuwa iri-iri daidai: 

source: Kai ne Abin da kuke kashewa 

Yana da matukar ban sha'awa da koyarwa ganin yadda rabon gidajen da wayoyin tarho suka karu a hankali, sannan kuma ya ragu sosai da kwata cikin shekaru. Babban Damuwa. Hakanan rabon gidajen da wutar lantarki ya karu, amma ya ragu sosai: mutane ba su shirye su daina wutar lantarki ba, ko da babu isasshen kuɗi. Kuma yaɗuwar gidan rediyon da wuya ya ji babban matsalar tattalin arziki kwata-kwata; kowa yana sha'awar sabbin labarai. Kuma, ba kamar waya, wutar lantarki ko mota ba, rediyo ba shi da kuɗin amfani. Af, Yunƙurin na sirri motoci, wanda aka katse da Babban Mawuyacin, da aka mayar kawai bayan shekaru 20, landline tarho da aka mayar bayan shekaru 10, da kuma lantarki gidaje - bayan 5.

Ana ganin a fili cewa yaduwar na'urorin sanyaya iska, tanda, microwaves, kwamfutoci da wayoyin hannu sun yi sauri fiye da yaduwar sabbin fasahohi a da. Daga kashi 10% zuwa 70%, haɓaka yakan faru a cikin shekaru 10 kawai. Fasahar juyin-juya-hali sau da yawa sun ɗauki fiye da shekaru 40 don samun ci gaba iri ɗaya. Ji bambanci!

Wani abu mai ban dariya ga marubucin da kansa. Yi la'akari da yadda injin wanki da na'urar bushewa suka yi girma sosai tun cikin shekarun 60s. Yana da ban dariya cewa ƙarshen ba a san su ba a cikinmu. Kuma idan a cikin Amurka, daga wani lokaci, yawanci ana siyan su a nau'i-nau'i, to, baƙi suna yawan tambayar tambaya: "Me yasa kuke buƙatar injin wanki biyu?" Dole ne ku amsa da kallo mai mahimmanci cewa na biyu yana cikin ajiyar, idan na farko ya karye. 

Hakanan kula da faɗuwar rabon injin wanki. A wannan lokacin, wuraren wanki na jama'a sun bazu sosai, inda za ku iya zuwa, ku loda wanki a cikin injin, wanke shi kuma ku fita. Mai arha Irin waɗannan abubuwa har yanzu suna da yawa a cikin Amurka. Wannan misali ne na halin da ake ciki inda tsarin kasuwanci na takamaiman kasuwa ya canza ƙimar shigar fasaha da tsarin tallace-tallace (na'urori masu lalata masu tsada masu tsada suna sayar da mafi kyau).

Hanzarta tafiyar matakai musamman sananne ne a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, lokacin da yawan shigar da fasahohin ya zama "nan take" ta ma'auni na farkon karni na 20 (a cikin shekaru 5-7):

source: The Tashin Gudun na Fasaha karbuwa (mai hoto akan mahaɗin yana da mu'amala!)

A lokaci guda, saurin haɓakar fasaha ɗaya sau da yawa faɗuwar wata ce. Hawan rediyo na nufin matsin lamba kan kasuwar jaridu, tashin tanda na microwave ya rage bukatar tanda gas, da dai sauransu. Wani lokaci gasar ta kasance kai tsaye, alal misali, haɓakar na’urar nadar kaset ta rage yawan buƙatun rikodin vinyl, kuma haɓakar CD ɗin ya rage buƙatar kaset. Kuma torrent ya kashe su duka tare da haɓakar rarraba kiɗan dijital, kudaden shiga masana'antu sun faɗi fiye da sau 2 (hoton yana kewaye da baƙar fata mai baƙin ciki):

source: GASKIYAR Mutuwar Masana'antar Waka 

Hakazalika, adadin hotunan da aka ɗauka yana girma sosai, haka kuma, kwanan nan tare da sauye-sauye zuwa dijital, ƙimar girma ya karu sosai. Saboda haka, "mutuwa" na hotunan analog "nan take" ta ma'auni na tarihi:

source: https://habr.com/ru/news/t/455864/#comment_20274554 

Cike da wasan kwaikwayo tarihin Kodak, wanda da mamaki ya ƙirƙira kyamarar dijital kuma ya rasa haɓakar ɗaukar hoto na dijital, yana da matuƙar koyarwa. Amma babban abin da tarihi ke koyarwa shi ne, ba ya koyar da komai. Saboda haka, lamarin zai sake maimaita kansa akai-akai. Idan kun yi imani da ƙididdiga - tare da hanzari.

Jimlar: 

• Ana iya samun fa'idar hasashen da yawa ta hanyar nazarin haɓakawa da raguwar kasuwanni cikin shekaru 100 da suka gabata.
• Matsakaicin ƙididdigewa yana ƙaruwa a matsakaici, wanda ke nufin cewa adadin tsinkayar ƙarya za ta ƙaru. Yi hankali…

Mu je yin aiki

Kai, ba shakka, tunanin cewa duk wannan abu ne mai sauqi qwarai, mai fahimta, kuma, a gaba ɗaya, yin la'akari da duk wannan a cikin tsinkaya ba shi da wuyar gaske. Kun kasance a banza... Yanzu an fara jin daɗi... Buckle up?

Kwanan nan, Igor Sechin, babban darektan Rosneft, ya yi magana a taron tattalin arzikin kasa da kasa na St. Petersburg, inda, musamman, ya ce: "A sakamakon haka, gudunmawar madadin makamashi ga ma'aunin makamashi na duniya zai kasance kadan: nan da 2040 zai karu daga 12 zuwa 16% na yanzu." Shin akwai wanda ke shakkar cewa Sechin kwararre ne a fagensa? Ina ganin a'a. 

A lokaci guda kuma, a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, rabon madadin makamashi ya karu da kusan 1% a kowace shekara, kuma ci gaban rabon ya haɓaka: 

source: Statista: Raba ikon sabuntawa a cikin samar da makamashi a duniya (An zaɓi wannan hanyar lissafin - ba tare da babban ƙarfin ruwa ba, tun da yake ya haifar da 12%) na yanzu.

Kuma a sa'an nan - matsala ga 3rd grade. Akwai darajar da a cikin 2017 ta kasance daidai da 12% kuma tana girma da 1% a kowace shekara. A wace shekara zai kai 16%? A cikin 2040? Ka yi tunani da kyau, abokina matashi? Lura cewa ta hanyar ba da amsa "a cikin 2021" muna yin babban kuskure na yin tsinkayar layi. Yana da ma'ana sosai don yin la'akari da yanayin ƙayyadaddun tsari da yin tsinkaya guda uku na yau da kullun: 

1. "kyakkyawan fata" da aka ba da haɓakar haɓakawa, 
2. "matsakaici" - bisa tsammanin cewa yawan ci gaban zai kasance daidai da mafi kyawun shekara a cikin shekaru 5 da suka wuce. 
3. da kuma “tashin hankali” - bisa hasashen cewa yawan ci gaban zai kasance akan matsakaita da mafi munin shekara a cikin shekaru 5 da suka gabata. 

Haka kuma, ko da bisa ga matsakaicin hasashen, 16.1% za a samu riga a cikin 2020, watau. shekara mai zuwa:

Source: lissafin marubuci 

Don ingantacciyar fahimta (na tafiyar matakai), muna gabatar da jadawali iri ɗaya akan ma'aunin logarithmic:  

Sun nuna cewa matsakaicin yanayin yanayin yanayi ne sosai, koda kuwa kun duba shi tun 2007. Gabaɗaya, ƙimar da aka annabta don 2040 za ta iya yiwuwa a samu a shekara mai zuwa, ko kuma a cikin shekara guda.

Don yin gaskiya, Sechin ba shine kawai wanda ke "kuskure" kamar wannan ba. Alal misali, ma'aikatan mai na BP (British Petroleum) suna yin hasashen shekara-shekara, kuma an riga an yi la'akari da su cewa, suna yin hasashen shekaru da yawa, ba sa la'akari da fa'idar aikin ("Derivative? A'a,) ba ku ji ba!”). Don haka, sun kasance suna haɓaka hasashensu kowace shekara don shekaru masu yawa:

source: Rashin Hasashen Hasashen / Me yasa masu zuba jari yakamata su kula da hasashen makamashi na kamfanin mai da taka tsantsan

Kusa da hasashen Sechin Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya (jam'iyyun da manyan ma'aikatan mai, duba bututu a tushen sashen Rasha na shafin). Su, bisa ga ka'ida, ba sa la'akari da ma'anar tsarin aiki, wanda ke haifar da shi wani tsari na kuskure mai girma tsawon shekaru 7, kuma suna maimaita wannan kuskuren a tsari:

source: Hasashen mu bai cika ba kuma alkawuranmu ba abin dogaro ba ne (shafin da kansa raini.ru, Af, yayi kyau sosai)

Hasashen su ya yi kama da ban dariya musamman tare da ƙarin bayanan kwanan nan (ka kuma karanta "da kyau, yaushe za su daina!!!" a cikin lanƙwasa?):

source: Girman hoto: gaskiya da tsinkaye na Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya

Wannan hakika rashin fahimta ne, amma lokacin da ake tsinkayar matakai da yawa, ya fi tasiri yin la'akari da ba madaidaicin tsinkaya na lokacin da ya gabata ba kuma ba madaidaicin tsinkaya dangane da abin da ake samu na yanzu ba, amma canjin saurin aiwatarwa. Wannan yana ba da ingantaccen sakamako don irin wannan tsari:

source: Juyin Juyin Halitta na AI: Hanyar zuwa Mai hankali 

A cikin wallafe-wallafen Ingilishi, musamman a cikin nazarin kasuwanci, ana amfani da taƙaice CAGR akai-akai (Growididdigar Ci Gaban Shekarar Shekara - An ba da hanyar haɗin zuwa wiki na Ingilishi, kuma yana da halayyar cewa babu wani labarin da ya dace a cikin Wikipedia na harshen Rashanci). Ana iya fassara CAGR azaman "yawan haɓakar haɓakar shekara." Ana lissafta shi bisa ga tsari
 

inda t0 - farkon shekara, tn - karshen shekara, kuma V(t) - darajar siga, mai yiwuwa yana canzawa bisa ga ka'ida mai ma'ana. An bayyana ƙimar a matsayin kashi kuma yana nufin kashi nawa ne wani ƙima (yawanci wasu kasuwa) ke girma a cikin shekara.

Akwai misalai da yawa akan Intanet akan yadda ake lissafin CAGR, misali, a cikin Google Docs da Excel:

• Yadda Ake Ƙara Tsarin CAGR zuwa Fayil na Sheets na Google
• CAGR Formula a cikin Excel (dace da rubutu na Rasha CAGR: menene wannan alamar kuma yadda ake lissafin shi)

Bari mu gudanar da wani ɗan gajeren aji a ƙarƙashin taken "bari mu taimaki Sechin", ɗaukar bayanai daga kamfanin mai na BP (a matsayin ƙananan ƙima). Ga masu sha'awar, bayanan da kanta yana wurin a cikin wannan google doc, za ku iya kwafa shi da kanku kuma ku lissafta shi daban. A duniya, tsararraki masu sabuntawa suna girma cikin sauri:

Source: Anan da ƙari akan jadawali baƙar fata, lissafin marubucin a cewar BP 

Ma'auni yana da logarithmic, kuma a bayyane yake cewa duk yankuna suna da girma mai girma (wannan yana da mahimmanci!), Mutane da yawa tare da haɓakawa. Kamar yadda ake tsammani, shugabannin su ne China da makwabtanta, bayan da suka mamaye Arewacin Amurka da Turai. Yana da ban sha'awa cewa mafi girma - Gabas ta Tsakiya - yana ɗaya daga cikin yankuna masu samar da mai a duniya, kuma yana da CAGR mafi girma a tsakanin duka (44% a cikin shekaru 5 da suka gabata (!)). Ba abin mamaki ba ne idan aka ga tsari na girma a cikin shekaru 6, kuma idan aka yi la'akari da maganganun jami'an su, za su ci gaba a cikin wannan yanayin. Tsohon ministan man fetur na Saudiyya cikin hikima ya gargaɗi abokan aikinsa na OPEC a shekara ta 2000: “Lokacin Dutse bai ƙare ba domin babu sauran duwatsu,” kuma da alama sun yi la’akari da wannan tunani mai kyau shekaru 10 da suka shige. CIS (CIS), kamar yadda muke gani, yana cikin wuri na ƙarshe. Yawan ci gaba, duk da haka, yana da kyau sosai. 

Ana iya ƙididdige CAGR ta hanyoyi daban-daban. Misali, bari mu gina CAGR na kowace shekara tun daga 1965, na shekaru 5 na ƙarshe da na shekaru 10 na ƙarshe. Za ku sami wannan hoto mai ban sha'awa (jimlar ga duniya):

Ana iya gani a fili cewa, a matsakaita, haɓakar haɓakar haɓakawa ya haɓaka sannan kuma ya ragu. "Moskovsky Komsomolets" da sauran kafofin watsa labaru masu launin rawaya a cikin wannan yanayin yawanci suna rubuta wani abu kamar "Tattalin Arzikin kasar Sin yana faduwa," ma'ana "yawan ci gaban tattalin arzikin kasar Sin yana raguwa" da kuma yin shuru cikin dabara game da gaskiyar cewa suna raguwa zuwa ga ci gaban tattalin arziki. irin wannan takun da wasu za su iya faɗi kawai mafarki. Komai yayi kama da haka.

Bari muyi ƙoƙarin yin hasashen samarwa a cikin 2018 dangane da bayanai har zuwa 2010, ɗaukar CAGR'1965, CAGR'10Y, CAGR'5Y da kuma tsinkayar tsinkaya daga 2010 dangane da 2009 kuma dangane da 2006. Muna samun hoto mai zuwa:

	Linear'1Y	Linear'4Y	CAGR'1965	CAGR'10Y	CAGR'5Y
Sabuntawar samarwa a cikin 2018, annabta bisa bayanai har zuwa 2010	1697	1442	1465	2035	2429
Halin zuwa ga ainihin a cikin 2018	0,68	0,58	0,59	0,82	0,98
Kuskuren hasashen	32%	42%	41%	18%	2%

Abubuwan halayen - babu ɗayan hasashen da ya juya ya zama mai kyakkyawan fata, watau. undershoot a ko'ina. A cikin mafi kyawun yanayin tare da CAGR na 15,7%, ƙarancin ya kasance 2%. Hasashen layi ya ba da kuskuren 30-40% (lokacin da aka ɗauka musamman lokacin da, saboda raguwar ƙimar girma, kuskuren su ya yi ƙasa kaɗan). Abin takaici, ba zai yiwu a ƙara samfurin Sechin ba, tun da ba zai yiwu a mayar da tsarinsa ba. 

A matsayin aikin gida, gwada baya ta hanyar wasa tare da CAGR daban-daban. Ƙarshen za ta kasance a bayyane: hanyoyin ƙayyadaddun bayanai sun fi annabta ta hanyar ƙira.

Kuma a matsayin ceri a kan kek, a nan akwai tsinkaya daga BP guda ɗaya, wanda ("Tsaki, ƙwararrun ƙwararru suna aiki!") Ƙwararru yana ba da damar ci gaban layi a cikin hasashen: 

source: Rabon da ake sabunta wutar lantarki ta hanyar tushe (daga BP)

Lura cewa ba sa ƙidayar wutar lantarki kwata-kwata, wanda aka keɓe a matsayin tushen makamashi na yau da kullun. Don haka, ƙididdigar su ta fi na Sechin, kuma suna ba da 12% kawai don 2020. Amma ko da ba a yi la'akari da tushe ba kuma haɓakar haɓaka ya tsaya a cikin 2020, suna da kashi 2040% a cikin 29. Ba ya kallon komai kamar Sechin's 16% ... Wani irin matsala ne kawai ...

A bayyane yake cewa Sechin mutum ne mai hankali. Ni masanin lissafi ne ta hanyar sana'a, ba injiniyan wutar lantarki ba, don haka ba zan iya ba da cikakkiyar amsa ga tambaya game da dalilin irin wannan babban kuskure a cikin hasashen Sechin ba. Mafi mahimmanci, gaskiyar ita ce, wannan yanayin da gaske yana wari kamar raguwar farashin mai. Kuma babban jirgin mu mai (wanda bai saurari wannan waƙa ta Semyon Slepakov ba, duba) don wani dalili mai mahimmanci, akwai kwanciyar hankali na musayar farashin sayar da danyen mai a kasashen waje, kuma ba kayan da aka gyara ba. Kuma idan kun karkatar da hasashen, to wannan yana kawar da (na ɗan lokaci, dole ne mutum yayi tunani) tambayoyi mara kyau. Amma a matsayina na masanin lissafi, zan fi so in ga kuskuren tsari aƙalla a matakin mazan daga BP waɗanda ba su ji abubuwan da suka samo asali ba. Ban damu ba, jirgi daya nake.

Jimlar:

• Kamar yadda duk jami'ai suka sani, a cikin yanayi na yakin, darajar da'irar π (rabo na da'irar da'irar zuwa diamita) ya kai 4, kuma a cikin lokuta na musamman - har zuwa 5. Saboda haka, lokacin da ya zama dole, da tsinkaya. ƙwararru suna nuna KOWANE ƙimar da hukumomi ke buƙata. Yana da kyau a tuna da wannan.
• An fi hasashen matakai masu fa'ida ta hanyar amfani da ƙimar girma na shekara-shekara, ko CAGR.
• Ana iya kimanta hasashen Sechin a dandalin Tattalin Arziki na Duniya na St. Don zaɓar daga. Mu yi fatan za a sami jajirtattun mutane da za su yi wasu tambayoyi marasa daɗi. Alal misali, me ya sa man petrochemicals a duk faɗin duniya ke da fa'ida sosai, amma kamfanoni mallakar gwamnatin Rasha sun kashe dubun-dubatar biliyoyin a cikin "bututu" da fitar da albarkatun ƙasa, kuma ba a ciki ba? 
• Kuma a ƙarshe, Ina so in yi fatan cewa ɗaya daga cikin masu karatu zai yi shafi game da shi CAGR a cikin Wikipedia na Rasha. Lokaci yayi, ina tunani.

Hasken rana

Bari mu ƙarfafa batun tafiyar matakai. Sabuwar ginshiƙi na BP yana nuna yadda rabon "rana" yayi tsalle sosai a cikin 2020, har ma BP mai ra'ayin mazan jiya ya yi imani da makomarsa. Abin sha'awa shine, ana kuma lura da wani tsari mai ma'ana a can, wanda, kamar dokar Moore, yana gudana sama da shekaru 40 kuma ana kiranta Dokar Swenson:

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson’s_law 

Ma'anar gabaɗaya ita ce mai sauƙi - farashin ƙirar yana faɗuwa da yawa kuma samarwa yana girma sosai. A sakamakon haka, idan shekaru 40 da suka gabata fasaha ce tare da cosmic (a kowane ma'ana) farashin wutar lantarki, kuma ya fi dacewa da ikon sarrafa tauraron dan adam, to a yau farashin kowace watt ya riga ya faɗi da kusan sau 400 kuma yana ci gaba da faɗuwa ( nan da nan 3 umarni). Matsakaicin ƙimar CAGR kusan 16% tare da haɓaka har zuwa 25% a cikin shekaru 10 da suka gabata, wanda baya faruwa sau da yawa.

A sakamakon haka, wannan kuma yana haifar da girma mai girma a cikin iya aiki da tsarawa:

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics 

Girma da sau 10 a cikin shekaru 7-8 yana da matukar mahimmanci (ƙididdige CAGR da kanka, zaku sami 33-38% (!)). Abin dariya ne, amma idan ba a daina ba, to, makamashin hasken rana ne kawai zai samar da kashi 100 na wutar lantarki a duniya cikin shekaru 12. Dole ne a magance wannan da yanke hukunci. Don ko ta yaya za a rage wannan abin kunya a Amurka, Trump a bara ya gabatar da wani katon haraji (na sauran kasuwanni) kashi 30% kan shigo da na'urorin hasken rana. Amma la'anta Sinawa a karshen shekara sun rage farashin da kashi 34% (a cikin shekara!), Ba wai kawai kawar da ayyukan ba, har ma da sake sayan su daga gare su. Kuma suna ci gaba da gina cikkaken masana’antun na’urar mutum-mutumi tare da samar da dubun gigawatts na batura a kowace shekara, da sake rage farashin da kuma kara yawan kayan da ake samarwa. Yana da irin mafarki mai ban tsoro, za ku yarda.

Faduwar farashin batura ya kai a shekarun baya-bayan nan ba wai kawai sun zama masu fafutuka ba tare da tallafin ba, amma iyakokin da ake amfani da su na tsadar gaske na tafiya da sauri zuwa arewa a yankin arewacin kasar, wanda ya kai tsawon daruruwan kilomita a kowace shekara. Bugu da ƙari, kawai jiya yana da mahimmanci don jagorantar batura a kusurwa mafi kyau da duk abin da. Shekaru 3-4 sun wuce, kuma don wannan farashin ana iya shigar da babban yanki na batura kawai akan facade na kudanci. Haka ne, ba su da tasiri, amma suna buƙatar a wanke su sau da yawa kuma suna da sauƙin shigarwa. Kuma don farashin shigarwa iri ɗaya, rage farashin mallakar ya fi mahimmanci. 

Hakanan, diddigin Achilles na makamashin hasken rana shine samar da wutar lantarki mara daidaituwa, musamman a yanayin da ingancin ajiya yayi nisa daga 100%. Sannan sai ya zamana cewa da irin wannan raguwar farashin samar da megawatt guda daya, nan da nan ba kawai an rufe ma'auni da matsakaicin inganci ba (wato ana iya adana shi ta hanyar da ba ta da inganci, amma mai rahusa). , amma kuma farashin shigar batura (wato, ga waɗannan kuɗin, za mu iya shigar ba kawai megawatts masu yawa na tsara ba, har ma da yawa megawatts na ajiya "kyauta", wanda ke canza halin da ake ciki).

Jimlar:

• Dokar Swenson kusan iri ɗaya ce da Dokar Moore dangane da inganci, kodayake CAGR ya fi ƙanƙanta. Amma daidai a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa tasirinsa zai zama sananne.
• Wannan batu ne na daban, amma godiya ga saurin haɓakar hasken rana da iska, an saka wasu biliyoyin hauka a cikin tsarin ajiyar makamashi na masana'antu a cikin shekaru 3 da suka gabata. A zahiri, Tesla yana nan a kan gaba tare da PowerPack na ku, wanda ya nuna sakamako mai nasara a Ostiraliya. Ma'aikatan gas damuwa. A lokaci guda kuma, nishaɗin bai riga ya fara ba, tunda fasahohi da yawa suna barazanar za su wuce Li-Ion a cikin faɗuwar farashin ajiya. Koyaya, wannan labari ne mabanbanta, zamuyi sha'awar CAGR ɗin su a cikin shekaru biyu (yanzu yana da kyau, amma wannan low tushe sakamako).

Motocin lantarki

ƙwararrun ƙwararrun masana sun rubuta a cikin mujallar Scientific American da ake girmamawa sosai a shekara ta 1909: “Gaskiyar cewa mota kusan ta kai iyakar ci gabanta an tabbatar da cewa a cikin shekarar da ta shige ba a sami wani ci gaba na yanayi mai tsauri ba.” A shekarar da ta gabata ba a sami ingantuwar ci gaban motocin lantarki ba. Wannan yana ba da dalilai don tabbatar da cewa babu shakka motar lantarki ta riga ta kai kololuwar ci gabanta. 

Mafi mahimmanci, akwai matsalar "kaza da kwai" a yawancin fasaha. Har sai yawan samar da kayayyaki ya kai wani matakin, yana da matukar tsada don gabatar da sababbin abubuwa, kuma, akasin haka, har sai an gabatar da su, tallace-tallace yana raguwa. Wadancan. Don shawo kan "cututtukan yara" ana buƙatar takamaiman samarwa da yawa. Kuma a nan yana da dacewa don kimanta sabbin fasahohin ta hanyar jimlar samar da kowane mutum:

source: Motocin lantarki da kuma "man fetur kololuwa". Gaskiya a cikin samfurin

Ni ba gwani ba ne kuma ban san yadda motocin lantarki za su canza a cikin shekaru 15 masu zuwa ba. Amma wannan tabbas samfuri ne na fasahar fasaha, kuma suna canzawa da sauri. Kuma matakin motocin lantarki na yanzu shine matakin motocin da ke da injunan konewa a cikin 1910 da matakin wayar hannu a 1983. Canje-canje ga mafi kyawun (ga mabukaci) a cikin shekaru 15 masu zuwa zai zama mai ban mamaki. Kuma a lokacin ne fara jin daɗi. 

Gabaɗaya, motocin lantarki ana tura su gaba da abubuwa guda uku:

• Lokacin da kuka taka gas ɗin, kuna tashi gaba, kamar a cikin motar motsa jiki, kuma farashin ya yi ƙasa da na motar wasanni. Kuma motocin lantarki sun riske su akan gajerun hanyoyi (Tesla X ya wuce Lamborghini, Tesla 3 ya wuce Ferrari, alal misali, saboda wannan dalili Tesla 'yan sanda saya) Wane ɗan sandan Ba’amurke ɗan Rasha ne ba ya son tuƙi da sauri?
• Cikewa yana da arha sosai, idan ba komai ba. Roman Naumov yana zaune a Kanada (@sith) yana haifar da bacin rai, yana kwatanta yadda shi, wani kamuwa da cuta, ya tuka kilomita 600 a wajen birnin, yana kashe $ 4 akan mai (ko kuma ba zai iya kashe shi ba kwata-kwata). Elon Musk, na tuna, ya yi korafin cewa yawancin attajirai masu tsada na Teslas suna fitar da shi zuwa Supercharger kyauta, 'yanci mai lalacewa. A takaice dai, an kusan kawar da man fetur daga abubuwan amfani.
• Kuma duk injiniyoyin sun ce baki ɗaya cewa lokacin da cututtukan yara suka warke, motar lantarki za ta rage tsada don kulawa. WANNAN zai fi arha sosai. Tayoyin kawai, sun ce, dole ne a sake canza su, sun ƙare ...

Kuma, ba shakka, gaskiyar cewa mota za a iya, bisa manufa, a caje ko'ina inda akwai wani kanti - wannan shi ne juyin juya hali. Wato idan wutar lantarki ta kai kakarka a kauye, za ka iya zuwa wurinta ka yi caji, ko da ya fi tsayi. Tabbas, ba za ku iya fitar da kofi na ƙasa ba, amma 99. (9)% na mutane suna zuwa ƙauyen, sannan motar tana zaune a can. Kuma gobe ba kawai za ta tsaya ba, amma za ta cinye wutar lantarki a farashi mai rahusa. 

Tabbas, har yanzu akwai caja kaɗan, musamman masu sauri, amma… bari mu kalli jadawali:

source: Kayayyakin Cajin Mota E-Mota Ya Zama Gabaɗaya

Menene? Tsari mai tsayi kuma? Kuma wanne! An gabatar da tambayar kamar haka: ta yaya yanayin zai canza idan a cikin shekaru 10 masu zuwa yawan gidajen mai ya karu sau 1000 ("Dubu, Karl!")? (Wannan shine CAGR=100%, watau ninka duk shekara) Yi hakuri, nayi kuskure. A gaba 8 shekaru sau 1000! (Wannan shine CAGR = 137%, watau sauri fiye da ninki biyu na shekara). Kuma biyu daga cikin wadannan shekaru 8 sun kusan wuce ... Kuma mutane daga masana'antu sun ce a cikin shekaru 8 masu zuwa ci gaban ba zai zama umarni 3 na girma ba, amma da sauri, musamman ma tare da sababbin masu yaduwa. Don fahimtar yadda zai kasance, kuna buƙatar zuwa China. A gaskiya ma, akwai wuraren lantarki a yawancin wuraren ajiye motoci kuma suna girma kamar namomin kaza bayan ruwan sama a cikin yanayi mai dumi. Kuma hatta mazaunan manyan gine-ginen za su kara man fetur na mako guda a tafiya ta Lahadi zuwa gidan sinima ko cibiyar kasuwanci (inda har yanzu motar ke fakin tana jiran ku na tsawon sa'o'i biyu). Kuma cibiyoyin kasuwanci tare da gidajen cin abinci za su yi yaƙi don baƙi da motocin lantarki (sun riga sun yi yaƙi a China).

Eh, farashin motocin lantarki ya yi tsada a yanzu. Amma baturin yana ba da kaso mai yawa a wurin, kuma farashinsa ya ragu kamar haka: 

source: A Bayan Al'amuran Yana ɗaukar Farashin Batirin Lithium-ion

Eh, sun yarda! Wannan kuma babban tsari ne! Kuma matsakaicin CAGR shine -20,8%, wanda, kamar yadda muka sani, yana da girma sosai. Idan 5% shine sau 2 a cikin shekaru 15, amma 20% shine sau 10 a cikin shekaru 12 ("Sau goma, Karl!"):

Yana da ban dariya cewa a wannan ƙimar, a cikin shekaru 3-4, maimakon baturi ɗaya don motar ku, zaku iya siyan biyu akan farashi ɗaya. Rataya na biyun a cikin gareji, kuma zai samar muku da babban caja na sirri. Ka dawo gida ka sha mai. Kuma a gwargwadon dare. Kuma dukan gidan za a ciyar da dare. Kuma katsewar wutar lantarki a ƙauyen ƙauyen ba zai ƙara zama abin damuwa ba. Kuma (tuna da CAGR na "rana") - zai yiwu a shigar da bangarorin hasken rana a kan rufin. Akwai tanadi mai kyau a wurin, don haka mutane da yawa za su ce: “Cool! Zan dauke shi! Kunna shi!” (mafi yawa a cikin Turai и United States, Tabbas).

Abu ne mai ban mamaki, bayan haka, waɗannan matakai masu ma'ana. A cikin shekaru 10 masu zuwa, babu shakka za mu ga ci gaba sosai a fannin motocin lantarki kuma za a yi la'akari da cewa motocin zamani na da matukar wahala da wahala. Babu ajiyar wuta, babu autopilot, dole ne ka ɗauki ɗimbin adaftar... Samfuran farko, a takaice.

Jimlar:

• An sayar da motocin lantarki a kasar Sin a farkon rabin shekarar 2019 66% fiye da na farkon rabin 2018. A lokaci guda, tallace-tallace na motoci tare da injunan konewa na ciki ya ragu da kashi 12%. Ba kararrawa ba, gong ne. 
• Mafi mashahuri tsakanin motocin lantarki shine, ba shakka, Tesla. Amma zan ja hankalin ku ga Sinawa BYD. Kila ta fi kallonta alkawari.
• A kasar Sin, lambobin lasisin motocin lantarki suna kore. Hukumomin kasar sun yi alkawarin cewa nan ba da dadewa ba a ranakun da matakin "ja" na hayakin hayaki zai daina barin dukkan motoci ban da masu amfani da wutar lantarki a tsakiyar birnin Beijing. Kamfanonin tasi suna sayen motocin lantarki da dubunnan. Marubucin ya hau irin wannan tasi, yana da ban sha'awa. 

Me ke faruwa a cikin IT?

Dokar Moore ta zama sananne sosai yayin da ta daɗe tare da babban CAGR na kusan 41% kusan shekaru 40. Wadanne misalai na CAGR masu kyau akwai a cikin IT? Akwai da yawa daga cikinsu, misali, haɓakar kudaden shiga na Google tare da CAGR na 43% sama da shekaru 16:

source:  Kudaden talla na Google daga 2001 zuwa 2018 (a cikin dalar Amurka biliyan)

Duban wannan jadawali, wasu mutane (musamman waɗanda aka dakatar da aikace-aikacen su daga Google Play Store) sun ji daɗi. Akwai abubuwa da yawa da za a yi tunani a kai a nan. A makon da ya gabata, yayin tuki mota, wayar ta fara ba da shawarar canzawa zuwa kewayawa Google, duk da cewa na riga na tuƙi tare da Yandex.Navigator. Wataƙila ba su da isasshen girman kasuwa kuma, amma suna buƙatar haɓaka kudaden shiga, na yi tunani. Ni kuma na yi tunani akai.

Koyaya, akwai kuma ƙarin jadawali na fasaha zalla, alal misali, waɗanda aka nuna akan sikelin logarithmic, raguwar farashin sararin diski da haɓaka saurin haɗin Intanet ta 2019:

source: Faɗuwar Faɗuwar Kuɗi Suna Ƙarfafa Wani Juyin Juyin Kwamfuta 

Yana da sauƙi a lura cewa akwai hali na isa tudu, watau. girman girma yana raguwa. Duk da haka, sun girma da kyau shekaru da yawa. Idan ka kalli rumbun kwamfutarka daki-daki, za ka ga cewa komawa na gaba ga mai magana yawanci ana tabbatar da ita ta hanyar fasaha mai zuwa:

source: Fasahar Ajiya na Yau da Gobe  

Don haka muna jiran SSDs su cim ma HDDs kuma su bar su a baya.

Hakanan, tare da kyakkyawan CAGR na 59%, farashin pixels na kyamarori na dijital ya faɗi lokaci ɗaya (Dokar Handy): 

source: Dokar Hendy

Shekaru 10 na ƙarshe kuma sun ga raguwar ƙima a girman pixel na kamara.  

Hakanan, tare da CAGR mai kyau na kusan 25% (sau 10 a cikin shekaru 10), farashin kowane pixel na nuni na al'ada yana faɗuwa kusan shekaru 40, yayin da haske da bambanci na pixels suma suna ƙaruwa (watau inganci mafi girma). ana bayar da shi akan farashi mai araha). Gabaɗaya, masana'antun ba su san inda za su saka pixels ba. 8K TV sun riga sun kasance masu araha, amma abin da za a nuna akan su tambaya ce mai kyau. Ana iya ɗaukar kowane adadin pixels ta autostereoscopy, amma akwai matsalolin da ba a warware su ba. Duk da haka, wannan labarin daban ne. A kowane hali, raguwa mai ban sha'awa a farashin pixel yana kawo autostereoscopy kusa.

Bugu da ƙari, haɓakar yaɗuwar sabis na software da yawa:

source: Dandalin Fasaha Tare da Masu Amfani da Bilyan 

Misali, AppleTV ko Facebook. Kuma, kamar yadda aka ambata a sama, godiya musamman ga cibiyoyin sadarwar jama'a, saurin yada sabbin abubuwa yana ƙaruwa. 

Jimlar: 

• Mafi yawa saboda matakai masu ma'ana a cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata, kamfanonin IT sun ƙaurace wa wasu a cikin jerin manyan kamfanoni a duniya. Kuma ba su da niyyar tsayawa (komai ma’ana).
• Haɓakawa a yawancin fasahohi a cikin IT suna da yawa. Bugu da ƙari, classic shine S-dimbin lankwasa, lokacin da a cikin yanki ɗaya fasaha ɗaya ta maye gurbin wani, kowane lokaci yana haifar da wani komawa zuwa ƙimar ƙima.

Hanyoyin sadarwa na jijiya 

Cibiyoyin jijiyoyi sun zama sananne sosai kwanan nan. Bari mu dubi adadin haƙƙin mallaka akan su a cikin 'yan shekarun nan:

La'ananne... Yana kama da mai nuni kuma (ko da yake lokacin ɗan gajeren lokaci ne). Koyaya, idan muka kalli farawa na dogon lokaci, hoton yana kusan iri ɗaya (sau 14 a cikin shekaru 15 shine CAGR na 19% - yana da kyau sosai):

source: AI, Nuwamba 2017 (eh, eh, na san abin da ke can a cikin shekaru 3 masu zuwa) 

A lokaci guda, cibiyoyin sadarwar jijiyoyi a wurare da yawa gaba ɗaya suna nuna kyakkyawan sakamako fiye da matsakaicin mutum:

source: Auna Ci gaban Binciken AI

Kuma lafiya, lokacin da sakamakon ya kasance akan ImageNet (kodayake sakamakon kai tsaye shine sabon ƙarni na robots masana'antu), amma a cikin fahimtar magana iri ɗaya hoto:

source: Auna Ci gaban Binciken AI

A haƙiƙa, hanyoyin sadarwa na jijiyoyi sun riga sun zarce matsakaicin mutum wajen sanin magana kuma suna kan hanyarsu ta fi su a duk yarukan gama gari. A ciki, kamar yadda muka rubuta, haɓakar saurin haɓakar hanyoyin sadarwa na jijiyoyi yana yiwuwa ya zama mai fa'ida. 

Yayin da suke yin barkwanci game da wannan batu, ba da dadewa muka yi tunani: eh, nan ba da jimawa ba robots za su iya yin dabaru a matakin birai, kuma an ɗauka cewa yana da nisa sosai daga matakin wawa, har ma fiye da haka. Einstein:

source: Juyin Juyin Halitta na AI: Hanyar zuwa Mai hankali 

Amma kwatsam sai ga shi an riga an kai matakin talaka (kuma ana ci gaba da kai shi). a fagage da dama), kuma zuwa matakin da ba kasafai ba (kamar yadda gasa tare da mutum a cikin dara da Go ya nuna) nesa ba zato ba tsammani ya zama ƙasa da yadda ake tsammani:

source: Auna Ci gaban Binciken AI

A cikin chess, an sami fitattun mutane kimanin shekaru 15 da suka gabata, a cikin Go - shekaru uku da suka wuce, kuma yanayin a bayyane yake:

source: Juyin Juyin Halitta na AI: Hanyar zuwa Mai hankali 

Kamar yadda babban shugaban General Electric Jack Welch ya taɓa cewa, "Idan yawan canjin waje ya fi yawan canjin a ciki, ƙarshen ya kusa." Wadancan. Idan kamfani bai canza sauri fiye da yanayin da ke kewaye da shi ya canza ba, yana cikin haɗari mai girma. Abin takaici, ya bar ofis shekaru 18 da suka gabata, kuma dukiyar GE ta kara tabarbarewa tun daga lokacin. GE ba ya ci gaba da canje-canje.

Tunawa da tsinkaya game da tarho ta kwararrun Western Union, hasashen Lord Kelvin, kididdigar kasuwa don kwamfutocin gida na Kayan Aiki na Dijital da wayoyin komai da ruwanka na Microsoft, dangane da bayanan hasashen Sechin, na tabbatar da damuwa. Domin tarihi ya maimaita kansa. Kuma a sake. Kuma a sake. Kuma a sake.

Yawancin ƙwararru, bayan nazarin filin su a wata cibiya/jami'a, sun daina haɓaka gaba. Kuma ana yin hasashen ta hanyar amfani da fasahohin karnin da ya gabata (ta kowace fuska). A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, na sha wahala da tambayar: yaya sauri hanyoyin sadarwar jijiyoyi za su maye gurbin masana waɗanda ba su san yadda ake amfani da CAGR ba? Kuma ina so kawai in yi hasashe, kuma ina jin tsoron yin kuskure. Zuwa ga ƙananan harbi, kamar yadda kuka fahimta.

Amma da gaske, saurin canji yana kama da iska. Idan kun san yadda ake saita saiti daidai (kuma jirgin ruwa ya cika), to ko da iskan iska ba zai hana ku ci gaba ba, kuma ko da iskar jela ce, har ma da babban CAGR !!!

Happy CAGR ga duk wanda ya gama karantawa!

DUP
Habraeffect har yanzu yana aiki! A ranar da aka buga wannan abu, wani labarin ya bayyana CAGR a cikin Wikipedia na Rasha! Har yanzu ba a fassara misalin ba, amma an riga an fara farawa. Bugu da ƙari za ku iya gani akan kudi ne ko a nan game da fasaha tare da abubuwa na yaudarar masu zuba jari

GodiyaIna so in yi godiya da gaske:

• Laboratory of Computer Graphics VMK Moscow Jami'ar Jihar. MV Lomonosov saboda gudunmawar da ya bayar ga ci gaban fasahar kwamfuta a Rasha da kuma bayan.
• da kaina Konstantin Kozhemyakov, wanda ya yi da yawa don sa wannan labarin ya fi kyau kuma mafi bayyana.
• kuma a ƙarshe, godiya da yawa ga Kirill Malyshev, Egor Sklyarov, Ivan Molodetskikh, Nikolai Oplachko, Evgeny Lyapustin, Alexander Ploshkin, Andrey Moskalenko, Aidar Khatiullin, Dmitry Klepikov, Dmitry Konovalchuk, Maxim Velikanov, Alexander Yakovenko da Evgeny babban adadin Kuptsov. sharhi da gyare-gyare waɗanda suka sa wannan rubutun ya fi kyau!

source: www.habr.com