Phakathi kwabo bafunda lo mbhalo, ngokuqinisekileyo, kukho iingcali ezininzi. Kwaye, ngokuqinisekileyo, wonke umntu uyazi kakuhle kwiinkalo zabo kwaye unovavanyo oluhle lwamathemba obugcisa obahlukeneyo kunye nophuhliso lwabo. Kwangaxeshanye, imbali ("efundisa ukuba ayifundisi nto") iyayazi imizekelo emininzi xa iingcali ngokuzithemba zenza uqikelelo olwahlukileyo kwaye zaphoswa ngumda omkhulu kakhulu:
- “Imfonomfono ineentsilelo ezininzi kakhulu kangangokuba ayinakuqwalaselwa nzulu njengesixhobo sonxibelelwano. Esi sixhobo asinaxabiso kuthi,” zabhala iingcali. , emva koko yayiyeyona nkampani inkulu yetelegraph ngowe-1876.
- “Unomathotholo akanakamva. Iinqwelomoya ezinzima kunomoya azinakwenzeka. I-X-reyi izakujika ibeyinkohliso,” utshilo ngo-1899, kwaye umntu unako, ngokuqinisekileyo, ukuhlekisa ukuba izazinzulu zaseBritani zazigungqisa emva ngenkulungwane ye-XNUMX, kodwa siya kuba silinganisa ubushushu eKelvin ixesha elide, kwaye akukho sizathu sakuthandabuza ukuba inkosi ehlonelwayo yayilungile. ingcali yefiziksi.
- "Ngubani lo ufuna ukuva abadlali bethetha?" utshilo malunga neentetho , owaseka iWarner Brothers ngowe-1927, enye yeengcali zefilimu ezaziphambili ngelo xesha.
- "Akukho sizathu sokuba nabani na afune ikhomputha yasekhaya," , umseki weDigital Equipment Corporation ngo-1977, kungekudala ngaphambi kokuba kuthathwe iikhompyutha zasekhaya...
- Namhlanje, akukho nto itshintshileyo: "Akukho thuba lokuba i-iPhone iya kufumana isabelo esibalulekileyo semarike," i-CEO yeMicrosoft yabhala e-USA Namhlanje. ngo-Epreli 2007 ngaphambi kokunyuka okuloyiso kwee-smartphones.
Umntu unokuhleka ngovuyo kwezi ziqikelelo ukuba umkhonzi wakho othobekileyo, umzekelo, akazange enze impazamo enkulu kwintsimi yakhe. Kwaye ukuba andizange ndibone ukuba zininzi kangakanani, iingcali ezininzi ziyaphazama. Ngokubanzi, kukho iklasikhi "oku akuzange kwenzeke ngaphambili, kwaye nantsi kwakhona." Kwaye kwakhona. Kwaye kwakhona. Ngaphezu koko, iingcali kunye neengcali ugwetyelwe kwiimpazamo Kwiimeko ezininzi. Ingakumbi xa kufikwa kwezo nkqubo damn exponential.
Owu, lo mboniso
Ingxaki yokuqala ngeenkqubo zokucacisa kukuba nokwazi ukuba zikhula ngokukhawuleza kangakanani (ngexesha elifanayo iparameters zabo zitshintsha inani elifanayo lamaxesha), kwinqanaba lemihla ngemihla kunzima kakhulu ukucinga ukukhula okunjalo. Umzekelo weklasikhi: ukuba siqhubela phambili inyathelo elinye, emva koko kwizinyathelo ezingama-30 siya kuhamba ngeemitha ezingama-30, kodwa ukuba inyathelo ngalinye likhula ngokukhawuleza, emva koko kumanyathelo angama-30 siya kujikeleza iglowubhu kangangezihlandlo ezingama-26 (“Amashumi amabini anesithandathu, Karl!!! ”) ecaleni kwe-ikhweyitha:
umthombo:
Umbuzo wabenzi benkqubo: yeyiphi into eqhubekayo esiyiphakamisayo kumandla kulo mba?
PhendulaIsigxina silingana no-2, okt. Ukuphinda kabini kwinqanaba ngalinye.
Xa inkqubo ikhula ngokukhawuleza, ibangela utshintsho olukhulu olukhawulezayo olubonakala ngokucacileyo kwiliso lenyama. Umzekelo obalaseleyo unikezwa ngu . Ngowe-1900, kwiFifth Avenue eNew York, kwakunzima ukubona inqwelo-mafutha enye phakathi kwezo nqwelo zitsalwa ngamahashe:
Kwaye kwiminyaka nje eli-13 kamva, kwisitrato esinye, awukwazi ukubona ihashe elilodwa phakathi kweemoto:
Sibona umfanekiso ofanayo, umzekelo, ngee-smartphones. INokia, eyayikhwele iliza elinye kwaye yayiyinkokeli ixesha elide ngomda obanzi, kodwa ayizange ikwazi ukungena kumaza alandelayo kwaye iphantse yaphulukana nentengiso ngoko nangoko (jonga kunye neenkokheli zemarike ngonyaka) ifundisa kakhulu.
Zonke iingcali zekhompyuter ziyazi , eyenzelwe i-transistors kwaye ibinyanisekile iminyaka engama-40. Amanye amaqabane ayenza ngokubanzi ukutshayela iityhubhu kunye nezixhobo zoomatshini kwaye bathi yasebenza iminyaka eyi-120. Kufanelekile ukubonisa iinkqubo zokubonisa kunye nesikali sesikali se-logarithmic, apho ziye zibe (phantse) zibe ngumgca kwaye kucacile ukuba ulungelelwaniso olunjalo lunelungelo lokubakho:
Umthombo: Le kunye neegrafu ezimbini ezilandelayo ukusuka
Kwinqanaba lomgca, ukukhula kujongeka ngolu hlobo:
Kwaye apha sisondela ngokuthe ngcembe kwi-ambush yesibini yeenkqubo ze-exponential. Ukuba ukukhula bekunje iminyaka eyi-120, ngaba oku kuthetha ukuba izinga lethu lokukhula liya kuhlala lifana ubuncinane eminye iminyaka eyi-10?
Ekusebenzeni kuvela ukuba akukho. Ngendlela ecocekileyo, izinga lokukhula kwekhompyutheni liye lanciphisa iminyaka emininzi, elivumela ukuba sithethe "ngokufa komthetho kaMoore":
umthombo:
Ngaphezu koko, kuyathakazelisa ukuba le ngqungquthela ayikwazi nje ukulungelelanisa, kodwa iphinde inyuke ngamandla avuselelwe. Umkhonzi wakho othobekileyo . Ewe, kuya kubakho ezinye izibalo (ezingachanekanga zenethiwekhi ye-neural), kodwa ekugqibeleni, ukuba i-abacus engachanekanga kunye ne-calculator mechanical ziye zandisa isikali ukuya kwiminyaka eyi-120, ngoko i-neural accelerators ifanelekile apho. Nangona kunjalo, siphumelele.
Kubalulekile ukuqonda oko ukukhula okubonakalayo kunokuyeka ngenxa yezizathu zobugcisa, ezomzimba, ezoqoqosho nezentlalo (uluhlu aluphelelanga). Kwaye esi sisihlandlo sesibini esikhulu sokulalela iinkqubo ze-exponential - ukuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo umzuzu xa ijika liqala ukushiya i-exponential. Iimpazamo kumacala omabini zixhaphake kakhulu apha.
Iyonke:
- I-ambush yokuqala yokukhula okubonakalayo kukuba isalathisi sikhula ngokungalindelekanga ngokukhawuleza nakwiingcali. Kwaye ukujongela phantsi i-exponential yimpazamo yendabuko ephindaphindiweyo. Njengoko iingcali zokwenyani zatsho kwiminyaka eli-100 eyadlulayo: “Iitanki, manene, yifashoni, kodwa abakhweli bamahashe bangunaphakade!”
- Ingxaki yesibini ngokukhula kwe-exponential kukuba ngexesha elithile (ngamanye amaxesha emva kweminyaka engama-40 okanye eyi-120) iphela, kwaye akulula ukuqikelela ngokuchanekileyo xa kuya kuphela. Kwaye nomthetho kaMoore, ekubhubheni kwakhe uninzi lweentatheli zobuchwephesha zashiya iimpuphu zazo, . Kwaye akuyi kubonakala ngathi ngokwaneleyo!
Iinkqubo ezicacileyo kunye nokubamba iimarike
Ukuba sithetha ngotshintsho olubonakalayo olusijikelezileyo kunye nemarike, kuyathakazelisa ukubona indlela iteknoloji eyahlukileyo eyoyisile ngayo imarike. Kungcono kakhulu ukwenza oku usebenzisa umzekelo wase-United States, apho ngaphezu kweminyaka eyi-100 iintlobo ezahlukeneyo zezibalo zemarike ziye zagcinwa ngokuchanekileyo:
umthombo:
Kuyathakazelisa kakhulu kwaye kuyafundisa ukubona indlela isabelo samakhaya aneefowuni ezinocingo sakhula ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye yehla kabukhali ngekota kwiminyaka edlulileyo. . Isabelo sezindlu ezinombane naso sakhula, kodwa sawa ngaphantsi kakhulu: abantu babengakulungelanga ukuyeka umbane, nangona kwakungekho mali yaneleyo. Kwaye ukusasazeka koonomathotholo basekhaya akuzange kukuva ubunzima obukhulu kwezoqoqosho konke konke; wonke umntu wayenomdla kwiindaba zamva nje. Kwaye, ngokungafaniyo nomnxeba, umbane okanye imoto, unomathotholo akanamali yokuwusebenzisa. Ngendlela, ukunyuka kweemoto zomntu, eziye zaphazanyiswa yi-Great Depression, zabuyiselwa kuphela emva kweminyaka engama-20, iifowuni ze-landline zabuyiselwa emva kweminyaka eyi-10, kunye nokufakelwa kombane kwezindlu - emva kwe-5.
Kuyabonakala ngokucacileyo ukuba ukusasazeka kwee-air conditioners, ii-oven microwaves, iikhomputha kunye nee-smartphones zazikhawuleza kakhulu kunokusasazwa kwetekhnoloji entsha ngaphambili. Ukusuka kwisabelo se-10% ukuya kuma-70%, ukukhula kaninzi kwenzeka kwiminyaka nje eli-10. Ubugcisa bokutshintsha kwenkulungwane ngokufuthi buthabatha iminyaka engaphezu kwama-40 ukuphumeza ulwando olufanayo. Yiva umahluko!
Into ehlekisayo kumbhali buqu. Qwalasela indlela oomatshini bokuhlamba kunye nezomisi bempahla bakhule ngokuhambelanayo ukusukela kwiminyaka yama-60s. Kuyinto funny ukuba yokugqibela phantse ayaziwa phakathi kwethu. Kwaye ukuba e-USA, ukusuka kwelinye icala ukuya phambili, babedla ngokuthengwa ngababini, iindwendwe zethu zihlala zibuza lo mbuzo: "Kutheni ufuna oomatshini ababini bokuhlamba?" Kufuneka uphendule ngenkangeleko enzulu ukuba eyesibini igcinwe, ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuba eyokuqala igqabhuke.
Kwakhona nikela ingqalelo kwisabelo esiwayo soomatshini bokuhlamba. Ngelo xesha, iindawo zokuhlamba zikawonke-wonke zanda kakhulu, apho unokuza khona, ulayishe impahla kumatshini, uyihlambe kwaye uhambe. Ngexabiso eliphantsi. Izinto ezifanayo zisaxhaphake kakhulu eUnited States. Lo ngumzekelo wemeko apho imodeli yoshishino yemarike ethile itshintsha izinga lokungena kwithekhnoloji kunye nesakhiwo sokuthengisa (imishini ebiza kakhulu ye-vandal-proof ithengisa ngcono).
Ukukhawuleziswa kweenkqubo kubonakala ngokukodwa kwiminyaka yakutshanje, xa ukungena kweteknoloji kuye kwaba "ngoko nangoko" ngemigangatho yekhulu lama-20 (kwiminyaka emi-5-7):
umthombo: (umzobo kwikhonkco uyasebenzisana!)
Kwangaxeshanye, ukunyuka okukhawulezayo kobunye ubuchwepheshe kudla ngokuwa kwenye. Ukunyuka koonomathotholo kwakuthetha uxinzelelo kwimarike yephephandaba, ukunyuka kwee-oveni ze-microwave kunciphisa imfuno yee-oveni zegesi, njl. Ngamanye amaxesha ukhuphiswano lwaluthe ngqo ngakumbi, umzekelo, ukunyuka kweerekhoda zeekhasethi zanciphisa ngokuphawulekayo imfuno yeerekhodi zevinyl, kwaye ukunyuka kweeCD kunciphise imfuno yeekhasethi. Kwaye umlambo wababulala bonke ngokukhula kokusasazwa kwedijithali komculo, ingeniso yoshishino yawa ngaphezu kwamaxesha e-2 (igrafu ijikelezwe yifreyimu emnyama emnyama):
umthombo:
Ngokufanayo, inani leefoto ezithathiweyo likhula ngokukhawuleza, ngaphezu koko, kutshanje ngokutshintshela kwidijithali, izinga lokukhula liye landa kakhulu. Ke ngoko, "ukufa" kweefoto ze-analogue "kwangoko" ngokwemigangatho yembali:
umthombo:
Igcwele idrama , eyenze ngokuxakayo ikhamera yedijithali kwaye yaphoswa ukunyuka okubonakalayo kokufota kwedijithali, ifundisa kakhulu. Kodwa eyona nto iphambili efundiswa yimbali kukuba ayifundisi nto. Ngoko ke, imeko iya kuphinda iphindaphinde. Ukuba uyakholelwa izibalo - kunye nokukhawuleza.
Iyonke:
- Uninzi lwenzuzo yoqikelelo lunokuzuzwa ngokufunda ukukhawulezisa kunye nokuhla kweemarike kule minyaka ili-100 idlulileyo.
- Izinga lezinto ezitsha liyanda kumyinge, oku kuthetha ukuba inani leengqikelelo zobuxoki liya kwanda. Lumnka…
Masiyozilolonga
Wena, ngokuqinisekileyo, ucinga ukuba yonke le nto ilula, iyaqondakala, kwaye, ngokubanzi, ukuthathela ingqalelo yonke le nto kuqikelelo akunzima kakhulu. Ulilize... Ngoku ulonwabo luyaqala... Bopha?
Kutshanje, uIgor Sechin, umalathisi oyintloko weRosneft, uthethe kwiNgqungquthela Yezizwe Ngezizwe Yezoqoqosho yaseSt." Ngaba umntu uyathandabuza ukuba uSechin uyingcali kwintsimi yakhe? Ndicinga ukuba hayi.
Kwangelo xesha, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, isabelo samandla angamanye sikhule malunga ne-1% ngonyaka, kwaye ukukhula kwesabelo kuye kwakhawuleza:
umthombo: (le ndlela yokubala yakhethwa - ngaphandle kombane omkhulu we-hydropower, kuba iphumela ngqo kwi-12 yangoku).
Kwaye ke - ingxaki kwibakala lesi-3. Kukho ixabiso elithi kwi-2017 lilingana ne-12% kwaye likhula nge-1% ngonyaka. Ngowuphi unyaka iya kufikelela kwi-16%? Ngo 2040? Ngaba ucinga kakuhle, mhlobo wam omncinci? Qaphela ukuba ngokuphendula "ngo-2021" senza impazamo yakudala yokwenza uqikelelo lomgca. Kuyavakala ngakumbi ukuthathela ingqalelo ubume benkqubo kwaye wenze uqikelelo oluthathu lwakudala:
- "ithemba" ngenxa yokukhawuleziswa kophuhliso,
- "umyinge" - ngokusekwe kwingcinga yokuba izinga lokukhula liya kufana nowona nyaka ubalaseleyo kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo.
- kunye “nokuphelelwa ithemba” - kusekelwe kwingqikelelo yokuba izinga lokukhula liya kuba ngokomndilili ngokufana nowona nyaka umbi kakhulu kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo.
Ngaphezu koko, nangokutsho koqikelelo oluqhelekileyo, i-16.1% iya kufezekiswa kakade ngo-2020, i.e. kunyaka olandelayo:
Umthombo: izibalo zombhali
Ukuqonda ngcono (kweenkqubo zokucacisa), sibonisa iigrafu ezifanayo kwisikali se-logarithmic:
Babonisa ukuba imeko ephakathi yinto eqhelekileyo, nokuba uyijongile ukusukela ngo-2007. Lilonke, ixabiso eliqikelelweyo ngo-2040 liya kufezekiswa kulo nyaka uzayo, okanye ubuninzi bonyaka.
Ukunyaniseka, uSechin ayisinguye yedwa "ophazamayo" ngolu hlobo. Ngokomzekelo, abasebenzi be-oyile ye-BP (iBritish Petroleum) benza uqikelelo lonyaka, kwaye sele benyathelwa ukuba, emva kokuba besenza uqikelelo iminyaka, ngokuphindaphindiweyo abawuthatheli ngqalelo ubungakanani benkqubo ("Derivative? Hayi). awuvanga!”). Ke ngoko, kuye kwafuneka ukuba baphakamise uqikelelo lwabo minyaka le iminyaka emininzi:
umthombo:
Kufuphi noqikelelo lweSechin (amaqela anabasebenzi abaninzi beoli, khangela iibhobho kwingcambu yecandelo lesiRashiya lesayithi). Bona, ngokomgaqo, abayithatheli ingqalelo ubume be-exponential yenkqubo, ekhokelela ulandelelwano lwempazamo yobukhulu iminyaka eyi-7, kwaye baphinda le mpazamo ngokucwangcisiweyo:
umthombo: (indawo ngokwayo , ngendlela, kuhle kakhulu)
Uqikelelo lwabo lukhangeleka luhlekisa ngakumbi ngedatha yamva nje (uphinde ufunde "kaloku, baya kuyeka nini !!!" kwiigophe zabo?):
umthombo:
Oku ngokwenene kuchasene, kodwa xa kuqikelelwa iinkqubo ezininzi, kusebenza ngakumbi ukuba kuthathelwe ingqalelo kungekhona uqikelelo lomgca wexesha elidlulileyo kwaye kungekhona uqikelelo lomgca olusekelwe kwi-derivative yangoku, kodwa utshintsho kwisantya senkqubo. Oku kunika esona siphumo sichanekileyo kwiinkqubo ezifanayo:
umthombo:
Kuncwadi lwesiNgesi, ngakumbi kuhlalutyo lweshishini, isifinyezo se-CAGR sisetyenziswa rhoqo ( - ikhonkco inikwe kwi-wiki yolwimi lwesiNgesi, kwaye luphawu lokuba akukho nqaku elihambelanayo kwi-Wikipedia yolwimi lwesiRashiya). I-CAGR inokuguqulelwa ngokuthi "izinga lokukhula elidityanisiweyo lonyaka." Ibalwa ngokwefomula
apho t0 - unyaka wokuqala, tn - unyaka wokuphela, kwaye V(t) - ixabiso lepharamitha, ekucingelwa ukuba iyatshintsha ngokomthetho we-exponential. Ixabiso lichazwa njengepesenti kwaye lithetha ukuba zingaphi iipesenti ixabiso elithile (ngokuqhelekileyo imarike ethile) ikhula ngaphezu konyaka.
Mininzi imizekelo kwi-Intanethi malunga nokubala i-CAGR, umzekelo, kwiGoogle Docs kunye neExcel:
- (isicatshulwa esifanelekileyo sesiRashiya )
Masiqhube iklasi yenkosi emfutshane phantsi kwesiqubulo esithi "masincede uSechin", sithatha idatha kwinkampani yeoli yeBP (njengoqikelelo oluphantsi). Kwabo banomdla, idatha ngokwayo ikhona , unokuzikhuphela kwaye ubale ngokuhlukileyo. Ehlabathini lonke, imveliso ehlaziyiweyo ikhula ngokukhawuleza:
Umthombo: Apha nangaphezulu kwiigrafu ezimnyama, izibalo zombhali
Isikali yi-logarithmic, kwaye kuyacaca ukuba yonke imimandla inokukhula okubonakalayo (oku kubalulekile!), Uninzi olunokukhawuleza okubonakalayo. Njengoko bekulindelekile, iinkokeli yi-China kunye nabamelwane bayo, sele begqithise uMntla Melika kunye neYurophu. Kuyathakazelisa ukuba i-penultimate - uMbindi Mpuma - yenye yezona ndawo zivelisa ioli emhlabeni, kwaye ineyona CAGR iphezulu phakathi kwayo yonke (i-44% kwiminyaka emi-5 edlulileyo (!)). Akumangalisi ukubona umyalelo wokunyuka kobukhulu kwiminyaka eyi-6, kwaye ukugweba ngeengxelo ezivela kumagosa abo, baya kuqhubeka ngendlela efanayo. Owayesakuba ngumphathiswa weoli waseSaudi Arabia ngobulumko walumkisa oogxa bakhe be-OPEC emva phayaa ngowama-2000: “Ixesha leStone Age alizange liphele ngenxa yokuba kwakungasekho matye,” yaye kubonakala ngathi le ngcamango yobulumko bayithathela ingqalelo kwiminyaka eli-10 eyadlulayo. I-CIS (CIS), njengoko sibona, ikwindawo yokugqibela. Izinga lokukhula, nangona kunjalo, lihle kakhulu.
I-CAGR ingabalwa ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo. Umzekelo, masenze iCAGR yonyaka ngamnye ukusukela ngo-1965, kwiminyaka emi-5 edlulileyo nakwiminyaka eli-10 edlulileyo. Uya kufumana lo mfanekiso unomdla (uwonke wehlabathi):
Kunokubonwa ngokucacileyo ukuba, ngokomndilili, ukukhula okubonakalayo kuye kwakhawuleza kwaze kwathotha. "I-Moskovsky Komsomolets" kunye namanye amajelo eendaba atyheli kule meko ahlala ebhala into efana nokuthi "Uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luyehla," okuthetha ukuthi "amazinga amangalisayo okukhula koqoqosho lwaseTshayina ayehla" kwaye ngobuchule bathule malunga nento yokuba bayacotha. isantya esinjalo abanye banokuxela iphupha kuphela. Yonke into ifana kakhulu apha.
Masizame ukuqikelela imveliso kwi-2018 esekelwe kwidatha ukuya kwi-2010, ukuthatha i-CAGR'1965, i-CAGR'10Y, i-CAGR'5Y kunye ne-forecast ehambelana ne-2010 malunga ne-2009 kunye ne-2006. Sifumana lo mfanekiso ulandelayo:
| Linear'1Y | Linear'4Y | I-CAGR'1965 | I-CAGR'10Y | I-CAGR'5Y | |
| Imveliso ehlaziyiweyo kwi-2018, i-forecast esekelwe kwidatha ukuya kwi-2010 | 1697 | 1442 | 1465 | 2035 | 2429 |
| Isimo sengqondo sokwenyani ngo-2018 | 0,68 | 0,58 | 0,59 | 0,82 | 0,98 |
| Impazamo yoqikelelo | 32% | 42% | 41% | 18% | 2% |
Amanqaku eempawu - akukho nanye yeengqikelelo eziye zajika zaba nethemba kakhulu, i.e. ukudubula ngaphantsi kuyo yonke indawo. Kwimeko enethemba kakhulu nge-CAGR ye-15,7%, ukusilela kwakuyi-2%. Izibikezelo zomgca zinike impazamo ye-30-40% (ixesha lithathwe ngokukodwa xa, ngenxa yokucotha kwamazinga okukhula, impazamo yabo yayincinci). Ngelishwa, kwakungenakwenzeka ukongeza imodeli kaSechin, kuba akunakwenzeka ukubuyisela ifomula yakhe.
Njengomsebenzi wasekhaya, zama ukubuyisela umva ngokudlala ngeeCAGR ezahlukeneyo. Isiphelo siya kuba cacileyo: iinkqubo ze-exponential ziqikelelwa ngcono ngeemodeli ezicacileyo.
Kwaye njenge-cherry kwikhekhe, nantsi ingqikelelo evela kwi-BP efanayo, ("Isilumkiso, iingcali ziyasebenza!") I-exponent inika indlela yokukhula komgca kuqikelelo:
umthombo:
Nceda uqaphele ukuba abawubala kwaphela amandla ombane, ohlelwa njengomthombo wamandla ahlaziyekayo. Ke ngoko, uqikelelo lwabo lomelele ngakumbi kuneSechin, kwaye banika i-12% kuphela ngo-2020. Kodwa nokuba isiseko sijongelwa phantsi kwaye ukukhula okubonakalayo kuyeka ngo-2020, banesabelo se-2040% ngo-29. Ayibukeki konke konke njenge-16% ye-Sechin ... Luhlobo oluthile lwenkathazo ...
Kucacile ukuba uSechin ngumntu ohlakaniphile. Ndiyingcali yemathematika esetyenzisiweyo ngokomsebenzi, hayi injineli yamandla, ngoko ke andinako ukunika impendulo efanelekileyo kumbuzo malunga nesizathu sempazamo enkulu kuqikelelo lukaSechin. Okunokwenzeka, inyaniso kukuba le meko ngokwenene ivumba njengokwehla kwamaxabiso eoli. Kwaye (ongazange aphulaphule le ngoma nguSemyon Slepakov, jonga) ngenxa yesizathu esingacacanga, kukho izinga lokutshintshiselana elizinzile lokuthengiswa kweoli ekrwada kumazwe angaphandle, kunye neemveliso zepetroleum ezisulungekileyo. Kwaye ukuba ugqwetha kakhulu i-forecast, ke oku kuphelisa (ixesha elithile, umntu kufuneka acinge) imibuzo engathandekiyo. Kodwa njengengcali yemathematika, ndingathanda ukubona impazamo ecwangcisiweyo ubuncinane kwinqanaba lamanene avela kwi-BP angeva ngeederivatives. Andikhathali, ndikwinqanawa enye.
Iyonke:
- Njengoko onke amagosa ayazi, kwiimeko zemfazwe ixabiso le-π engaguqukiyo (umlinganiselo wesangqa sesangqa ukuya kububanzi bayo) ufikelela kwi-4, kwaye kwiimeko ezikhethekileyo - ukuya kuthi ga kwi-5. Ngoko ke, xa kuyimfuneko ngokwenene, ukubikezelwa iingcali zibonisa NAPHI na imilinganiselo efunwa ngabasemagunyeni. Kuyacetyiswa ukuba ukhumbule oku.
- Iinkqubo ezinophawu ziqikelelwa ngcono kusetyenziswa izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiweyo lonyaka, okanye iCAGR.
- I-Sechin's forecast kwi-Forum yezoQoqosho yeZizwe ngezizwe yaseSt. Ukukhetha kuyo. Masithembe ukuba kuya kubakho abantu abanesibindi abaya kubuza imibuzo engathandekiyo. Ngokomzekelo, kutheni i-petrochemicals emhlabeni wonke inenzuzo kakhulu, kodwa iinkampani zaseRashiya eziphantsi korhulumente zityala amashumi eebhiliyoni "kwipayipi" kunye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla ekrwada, kwaye kungekhona kuyo?
- Kwaye ekugqibeleni, ndingathanda ukuba nethemba lokuba omnye wabafundi uya kwenza iphepha malunga kwiWikipedia yaseRashiya. Lixesha, ndiyacinga.
Amandla esola
Masihlanganise isihloko seenkqubo zokucacisa. Itshathi yeBP yamva nje ibonisa ukuba isabelo "selanga" sitsibe kabukhali ngo-2020, kwaye ne-BP egcinayo ikholelwa kwikamva layo. Okubangela umdla kukuba, inkqubo ye-exponential ikwajongwa apho, ethi, njengomthetho kaMoore, iqhubeke iminyaka engaphezu kwama-40 kwaye ibizwa ngokuba nguMthetho kaSwenson:
umthombo:
Intsingiselo eqhelekileyo ilula - ixabiso lemodyuli liwela ngokukhawuleza kwaye imveliso ikhula ngokukhawuleza. Ngenxa yoko, ukuba iminyaka engama-40 edlulileyo yayibuchwephesha obune-cosmic (ngayo yonke ingqiqo) ixabiso lombane, kwaye yayifaneleka kakhulu ukunika amandla i-satellites, ngoko namhlanje ixabiso le-watt sele liwile malunga namaxesha angama-400 kwaye liyaqhubeka nokuwa ( ngokukhawuleza 3 imiyalelo). Umndilili we-CAGR ngexabiso malunga ne-16% ngokunyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-25% kwiminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo, into engenzeki rhoqo.
Ngenxa yoko, oku kubangela ukukhula okubonakalayo kumthamo ofakiweyo kunye nesizukulwana:
umthombo:
Ukukhula ngamaxesha e-10 kwiminyaka eyi-7-8 kubi kakhulu (bala i-CAGR ngokwakho, uya kufumana i-33-38% (!)). Iyahlekisa, kodwa ukuba ayiyekwa, amandla elanga kuphela aya kuvelisa i-100% yeemfuno zombane zehlabathi kwiminyaka eyi-12. Oku kufuneka kusingathwe ngokugqibeleleyo. Ukunciphisa ngandlela-thile le hlazo e-United States, iTump kunyaka odlulileyo yazisa enkulu (kwezinye iimarike) umsebenzi we-30% ekungenisweni kweepaneli zelanga. Kodwa amaShayina agwetyiweyo ekupheleni konyaka anciphisa amaxabiso ngama-34% (enyakeni!), Engaphelisi kuphela imisebenzi, kodwa aphinde enze ukuthenga kubo kube nenzuzo kwakhona. Kwaye bayaqhubeka nokwakha iifektri zerobhothi ngokupheleleyo kunye nokuveliswa kwamashumi eegigawathi zeebhetri ngonyaka, ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukunciphisa amaxabiso kunye nokunyusa umthamo wemveliso. Luhlobo lwamaphupha amabi, uya kuvuma.
Iindleko ezihlayo zeebhetri zifana nokuba kwiminyaka yamuva nje ziye zakhuphisana ngaphandle kwenkxaso-mali, kodwa umda wokusetyenziswa kwazo okunexabiso eliphantsi lihamba ngokukhawuleza ukuya ngasentla kwi-hemisphere esenyakatho, ukugubungela ukuya kumakhulu eekhilomitha ngonyaka. Ngaphezu koko, izolo nje kwakubalulekile ukuqondisa iibhetri kwi-angle efanelekileyo kunye nayo yonke loo nto. Iminyaka eyi-3-4 iyadlula, kwaye ngexabiso elifanayo indawo enkulu yeebhetri inokufakwa ngokulula kwiifacade ezithe nkqo emazantsi. Ewe, ayisebenzi kangako, kodwa kufuneka ihlanjwe kancinci kwaye kulula ukuyifaka. Kwaye ngexabiso elifanayo lofakelo, ukunciphisa iindleko zobunini kubaluleke kakhulu.
Kwakhona, isithende se-Achilles samandla elanga sivelisa umbane ongalinganiyo, ngakumbi kwiimeko apho ukugcinwa kokusebenza kakuhle kude ne-100%. Kwaye ke kuvela ukuba ngezinga elinjalo lokuhla kweendleko zokuvelisa i-megawatt enye, ngokukhawuleza kungekhona nje kuphela ukugcinwa okuphantsi kunye ne-avareji yogcino lugqunyiwe (oko kukuthi, lunokugcinwa ngendlela engaphantsi, kodwa ephantsi) , kodwa kunye neendleko zokufakela iibhetri (oko kukuthi, loo mali efanayo, asikwazi ukufaka kuphela i-megawatts ezininzi zesizukulwana, kodwa kunye neemegawatts ezininzi zokugcina "simahla", ezitshintsha kakhulu imeko).
Iyonke:
- Umthetho ka-Swenson uphantse ufane noMthetho kaMoore ngokusemthethweni, nangona i-CAGR incinci. Kodwa kanye kule minyaka ilishumi izayo umphumo wayo uya kubonakala kakhulu.
- Esi sisihloko esahluke ngokupheleleyo, kodwa ngenxa yophuhliso olukhawulezayo lwelanga nomoya, ezinye iibhiliyoni eziphambeneyo ziye zatyalwa kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla kwimizi-mveliso kule minyaka mi-3 idlulileyo. Ngokwemvelo, uTesla ulapha , eyabonisa . Abasebenzi begesi . Kwangaxeshanye, ulonwabo alukaqalisi, kuba ubuchwephesha obuninzi busongela ukugqitha i-Li-Ion ekuweni kweendleko zokugcina. Nangona kunjalo, eli libali elahluke ngokupheleleyo, siya kuba nomdla kwi-CAGR yabo kwiminyaka embalwa (ngoku imnandi, kodwa oku ).
Iimoto zombane
Iingcali ezinzulu zabhala oku kwiphephancwadi elihlonelwa kakhulu iScientific American emva phayaa ngowe-1909: “Isibakala sokuba inqwelo-mafutha iye yafikelela kumda wokukhula kwayo siqinisekiswa sisibakala sokuba kulo nyaka uphelileyo akukhange kubekho luphuculo lubalaseleyo.” Kulo nyaka uphelileyo akukho luphuculo lumandla kwizithuthi zombane. Oku kunika izizathu zokutsho ngokuzithemba ukuba imoto yombane sele ifikelele kwincopho yophuhliso lwayo.
Okubaluleke ngakumbi, kukho ingxaki "yenkukhu kunye neqanda" kwiiteknoloji ezininzi. Kuze kube yilapho imveliso yobuninzi ifikelela kwinqanaba elithile, kubiza kakhulu ukwazisa inani lezinto ezintsha, kwaye, ngokuchaseneyo, de zingeniswe, ukuthengisa kuyancipha. Ezo. Ukoyisa "izifo zabantwana" imveliso ethile yobuninzi iyafuneka. Kwaye apha kulungele ukuvavanya itekhnoloji entsha ngokwenqanaba lemveliso iyonke ngomntu ngamnye:
umthombo:
Andiyoncutshe kwaye andazi ukuba iimoto zombane ziya kutshintsha njani kule minyaka ili-15 izayo. Kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo oku kuyimveliso ephezulu kakhulu, kwaye batshintsha ngokukhawuleza. Kwaye inqanaba lezithuthi zombane zangoku linqanaba leemoto ezineenjini zokutsha zangaphakathi kwi-1910 kunye nenqanaba leefowuni eziphathwayo kwi-1983. Utshintsho olungcono (kumthengi) kwiminyaka eyi-15 ezayo iya kuba yinto ephawulekayo. Kulapho ke ulonwabo luqala.
Ngokubanzi, iimoto zombane zityhalwa phambili zizinto ezintathu:
- Xa unyathela igesi, ubhabhela phambili, njengakwimoto yezemidlalo, kwaye ixabiso lisezantsi kakhulu kunelo lemoto yezemidlalo. Kwaye iimoto zombane zibagqitha ngeendlela ezimfutshane (, , umzekelo, ngenxa yesi sizathu uTesla ) Leliphi ipolisa laseRashiya laseMelika elingakuthandiyo ukuqhuba ngokukhawuleza?
- Ukuzalisa kwakhona kubiza kakhulu, ukuba akukho nto. URoman Naumov uhlala eCanada () ibangela ukuvutha komsindo, ichaza indlela yena, usulelo, aqhube ngayo iikhilomitha ezingama-600 ngaphandle kwesixeko, echitha i-$ 4 kwipetroli (okanye engazange ayisebenzise kwaphela). U-Elon Musk, ndiyakhumbula, wakhalaza ukuba abaninzi abanini abacebileyo beTeslas ebiza kakhulu bayiqhubela kwi-Supercharger yamahhala, i-freebie egwetyiweyo. Ngamafutshane, amafutha aphantse apheliswe kwizinto ezisetyenziswayo.
- Yaye zonke iinjineli zitsho ngazwi linye ukuba xa izigulo zabantwana zinyangwa, inqwelo-mafutha yombane iya kubiza imali encinane ukuyinyamekela. UKUBA kuya kuba sezantsi kakhulu. Kuphela ngamatayara, bathi, kufuneka atshintshe rhoqo, aphelelwe ...
Kwaye, ngokuqinisekileyo, into yokuba imoto inokuthi, ngokusemgangathweni, ihlawuliswe naphi na apho kukho i-outlet - oku kukuguqulwa. Oko kukuthi, ukuba umbane ufikelele kumakhulu wakho kwidolophana, unokuza kuye kwaye uhlaziye, nangona ixesha elide. Ngokuqinisekileyo, awuyi kukwazi ukuqhuba i-trophy yelizwe, kodwa i-99. (9)% yabantu beza kwidolophana, kwaye ke imoto ihleli. Kwaye ngomso ayizukuma nje, kodwa isebenzise umbane ngexabiso eliphantsi lelali.
Ewe, kusekho iitshaja ezimbalwa, ngakumbi ezikhawulezayo, kodwa... makhe sijonge igrafu:
umthombo:
Intoni? Inkqubo Exponential kwakhona? Kwaye yintoni! Umbuzo ubekwe ngolu hlobo: imeko iya kutshintsha njani ukuba kwiminyaka eyi-10 ezayo inani lezikhululo zegesi landa ngamaxesha angama-1000 ("Iwaka, iKarl!")? (Le yi-CAGR=100%, okt ukuphinda kabini ngonyaka) Uxolo, bendingalunganga. Kwilandelayo 8 iminyaka 1000 amaxesha! (Le yi-CAGR = 137%, o.k.t. ngokukhawuleza kunokuphindwa kabini konyaka). Kwaye ezimbini kule minyaka ye-8 sele iphantse yadlula ... Kwaye abantu abavela kwishishini bathi kwiminyaka eyi-8 ezayo ukukhula akuyi kuba yi-3 imiyalelo yobukhulu, kodwa ngokukhawuleza, ngokukodwa ngesizukulwana esitsha seefoloko. Ukuze uqonde ukuba iya kujongeka njani, kufuneka uze eTshayina. Enyanisweni, kukho iindawo zombane kwiindawo ezininzi zokupaka kwaye zikhula njengamakhowa emva kwemvula kwimozulu eshushu. Kwaye nabahlali bezakhiwo eziphakamileyo baya kugcwala iveki ngeCawa kuhambo lokuya kwi-cinema okanye kwindawo yokuthenga (apho imoto isamile kwaye ilinde wena iiyure ezimbalwa). Kwaye amaziko okuthenga aneendawo zokutyela aya kulwela iindwendwe ezineemoto zombane (sele zilwa eChina).
Ewe, ixabiso leemoto zombane liphezulu ngoku. Kodwa ibhetri inika isabelo esikhulu apho, kwaye ixabiso layo liyehla ngolu hlobo:
umthombo:
Ewe, bavuma! Oku kwakhona yinkqubo exponential! Kwaye umndilili we-CAGR yi-20,8%, leyo, njengoko sisazi, iphezulu KAKHULU. Ukuba isi-5% siphindwe ka-2 kwiminyaka eli-15, kodwa i-20% ili-10 kwiminyaka eli-12 (“izihlandlo ezilishumi, Karl!”):
Kuyahlekisa ukuba ngeli nqanaba, kwiminyaka emi-3-4, endaweni yebhetri enye yemoto yakho, unokuthenga ezimbini ngexabiso elifanayo. Yixhome eyesibini egaraji, kwaye iya kukubonelela nge-supercharger yakho. Ufika ekhaya ugalele amafutha. Kwaye ngexabiso ebusuku. Kwaye indlu yonke iya kondliwa ngexabiso lasebusuku. Kwaye ukuphuma kombane kwidolophana yase-cottage akusayi kuba yinkxalabo. Kwaye (ukukhumbula i-CAGR "yelanga") - kuya kwenzeka ukuba ufake iipaneli zelanga phezu kophahla. Kukho ukongiwa kakuhle apho, ngoko abantu abaninzi baya kuthi: “Kulungile! Ndiza kuyithatha! Yigqibezele!” (ubukhulu becala kwi и , Ngokuqinisekileyo).
Yinto emangalisayo, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, ezi nkqubo ze-exponential. Kule minyaka ili-10 izayo, ngokuqinisekileyo siya kubona inkqubela-phambili enzulu kwicandelo lezithuthi zombane kwaye iimoto zombane zanamhlanje ziya kubonwa njengezingalunganga kakhulu kwaye zilusizi. Akukho kugcinwa kwamandla, akukho mqhubi we-autopilot, kufuneka uphathe iqela le-adapters ... Iimodeli zangaphambili, ngokufutshane.
Iyonke:
- Iimoto zombane zathengiswa e-China kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2019 . Ngexesha elifanayo, ukuthengiswa kweemoto ezineenjini zokutsha zangaphakathi kwehle nge-12%. Asiyontsimbi, yintsimbi.
- Eyona nto idumileyo phakathi kweemoto zombane, kunjalo, iTesla. Kodwa ndingatsalela ingqalelo yakho kumaTshayina . Mhlawumbi ukhangeleka kakhulu .
- E-China, iipleyiti zelayisensi yezithuthi zombane ziluhlaza. Abasemagunyeni bathembisa ukuba kungekudala ngeentsuku zenqanaba "elibomvu" lomsi baya kuyeka ukuvumela zonke iimoto ngaphandle kwezo zombane ukuba zingene kumbindi weBeijing. Iinkampani zeeteksi zithenga iimoto zombane ngamawaka. Umbhali ukhwele iteksi enjalo, ibonakala inomtsalane.
Kwenzeka ntoni kwi-IT?
Umthetho kaMoore uye waziwa kakhulu njengoko wahlala nge-CAGR enkulu emalunga nama-41% phantse iminyaka engama-40. Yeyiphi eminye imizekelo ye-CAGR elungileyo ekhoyo kwi-IT? Zininzi zazo, umzekelo, ukukhula kwengeniso kaGoogle nge-CAGR ye-43% kwiminyaka eli-16:
umthombo:
Ukujonga le grafu, abanye abantu (ingakumbi abo izicelo zabo zivaliwe kwiGoogle Play Store) baziva bengakhululekanga. Ininzi into onokucinga ngayo apha. Kwiveki ephelileyo, ngelixa uqhuba imoto, i-smartphone yaqala ukukhuthaza ngokuqhubekayo ukutshintshela kwi-Google navigation, nangona ndandisele ndiqhuba ngeYandex.Navigator. Mhlawumbi abasenawo ubungakanani bokuthengisa okwaneleyo, kodwa kufuneka banyuse ingeniso, ndacinga. Kwaye nam ndacinga ngayo.
Nangona kunjalo, kukho ithemba elingaphezulu leegrafu zobugcisa, umzekelo, eziboniswe kwisikali se-logarithmic, ukuhla kwexabiso lendawo yedisk kunye nokunyuka kwesantya soqhagamshelwano lwe-Intanethi ngo-2019:
umthombo:
Kulula ukuqaphela ukuba kukho ukuthambekela kokufikelela kwi-plateau, i.e. izinga lokukhula liyancipha. Nangona kunjalo, bakhula kakuhle kangangamashumi eminyaka. Ukuba ujonga kwii-hard drives kwiinkcukacha ezithe kratya, unokubona ukuba ukubuya okulandelayo kwi-exponent ngokuqhelekileyo kuqinisekiswe bubuchwephesha obulandelayo:
umthombo:
Ke silinde ii-SSD ukuba zibambe ii-HDD kwaye zibashiye kude ngasemva.
Kwakhona, ngeCAGR egqwesileyo ye-59%, iindleko zeepikseli zeekhamera zedijithali zawa ngaxeshanye (uMthetho weHandy):
umthombo:
Iminyaka eli-10 edlulileyo ikwabone ukuhla okubonakalayo kubungakanani bepixel yekhamera.
Kwakhona, nge-CAGR elungileyo malunga ne-25% (amaxesha ali-10 kwiminyaka eyi-10), ixabiso ngepixel nganye yesiboniso esiqhelekileyo liye lawa malunga neminyaka engama-40, ngelixa ukukhanya kunye nokuchasana kweepikseli kuyanda (oko kukuthi, umgangatho ophezulu inikezelwa ngexabiso eliphantsi). Ngokubanzi, abavelisi abasazi ukuba bazibeke phi iiphikseli. IiTV ze-8K sele zifikeleleke kakhulu, kodwa into emayiboniswe kubo ngumbuzo olungileyo. Naliphi na inani leepikseli ezinokufunxwa yi-autostereoscopy, kodwa kukho imiba engasonjululwanga apho. Nangona kunjalo, eli libali elahlukileyo. Kuyo nayiphi na imeko, ukuncitshiswa okumangalisayo kwexabiso le-pixel kusondeza i-autostereoscopy.
Ukongeza, ukusasazeka okubonakalayo kweenkonzo ezininzi zesoftware:
umthombo:
Umzekelo, AppleTV okanye Facebook. Kwaye, njengoko kukhankanyiwe ngasentla, sibulela ngokukodwa kwiintanethi zentlalo, isantya sokusasazwa kwezinto ezintsha sanda.
Iyonke:
- Ubukhulu becala ngenxa yeenkqubo zokucacisa kule minyaka ingama-20 idlulileyo, iinkampani ze-IT ziye zabashiya kakhulu abanye kuluhlu lweenkampani ezinkulu emhlabeni. Kwaye abananjongo yokuyeka (nokuba kuthetha ukuthini na oko).
- Ukuphuculwa kobuninzi betekhnoloji kwi-IT kuyabonakala. Ngaphezu koko, i-classic i-curve emise okwe-S, xa kwindawo enye iteknoloji enye ithatha indawo yenye, ixesha ngalinye ibangela enye imbuyekezo kwizinga le-exponential.
Uthungelwano lweNeural
Uthungelwano lweNeural luye lwaziwa kakhulu mva nje. Makhe sijonge inani lamalungelo awodwa abenzi kuwo kwiminyaka yakutshanje:
Damn ... Kubonakala ngathi umboniso kwakhona (nangona ixesha lifutshane kakhulu). Nangona kunjalo, ukuba sijonga ukuqaliswa kwexesha elide, umfanekiso uphantse ufane (amaxesha ali-14 kwiminyaka eli-15 yi-CAGR ye-19% - ilunge kakhulu):
umthombo: (ewe, ewe, ndiyazi ukuba yintoni ekhoyo kule minyaka mi-3 izayo)
Kwangaxeshanye, uthungelwano lwe-neural kwiindawo ezininzi lubonisa ngamxhelo mnye iziphumo ezingcono kunomntu oqhelekileyo:
umthombo:
Kwaye kulungile, xa isiphumo sikwi-ImageNet (nangona isiphumo esithe ngqo sisizukulwana esitsha seerobhothi zamashishini), kodwa ekuqondeni intetho umfanekiso ofanayo:
umthombo:
Ngapha koko, uthungelwano lwe-neural lusanda kumgqwesa umntu oqhelekileyo ekuqapheliseni intetho kwaye basendleleni yokuqhuba kakuhle kuzo zonke iilwimi eziqhelekileyo. Apho, .
Njengoko behlekisa ngesi sihloko, kungekudala sasicinga: ewe, kungekudala iirobhothi ziya kukwazi ukwenza amaqhinga kwinqanaba leenkawu, kwaye kwakucingelwa ukuba kukude kakhulu kwinqanaba lomntu osisiyatha, kwaye nangaphezulu. Einstein:
umthombo:
Kodwa ngequbuliso kwavela ukuba inqanaba lomntu oqhelekileyo sele lifikile (kwaye liyaqhubeka nokufikelelwa) ), kunye nenqanaba lengqondo enqabileyo (njengokhuphiswano nomntu kwi-chess kunye ne-Go yabonisa) umgama ngequbuliso wajika waba ngaphantsi kunokuba bekulindelwe:
umthombo:
Kwichess, abantu ababalaseleyo bafunyanwa malunga neminyaka eyi-15 eyadlulayo, kwiGo - , kwaye intsingiselo iyabonakala:
umthombo:
Njengoko ingqonyela yoMbane oyiNtloko uJack Welch wake wathi, "Ukuba isantya sotshintsho ngaphandle sikhulu kunokutshintsha ngaphakathi, isiphelo sisondele." Ezo. Ukuba inkampani ayitshintshi ngokukhawuleza kunokuba imeko ejikelezileyo itshintsha, isengozini enkulu. Ngelishwa, wayishiya i-ofisi kwiminyaka eyi-18 eyadlulayo, kwaye ubutyebi be-GE baye baba mandundu ukususela ngoko. I-GE ayihambelani neenguqu.
Ukukhumbula iingqikelelo malunga nomnxeba ziingcali zeWestern Union, iingqikelelo zeNkosi uKelvin, uqikelelo lwemarike yeekhompyuter zeDigital Equipment ekhaya kunye nee-smartphones zeMicrosoft, ngokuchasene nemeko yengqikelelo yeSechin, ndiye ndazithethelela iinkxalabo. Kuba imbali iyaziphinda. Kwaye kwakhona. Kwaye kwakhona. Kwaye kwakhona.
Iingcali ezininzi, emva kokufunda indawo yazo kwiziko / idyunivesithi, ziyeka ukuphuhlisa ngakumbi. Kwaye uqikelelo lwenziwa kusetyenziswa itekhnoloji yenkulungwane yokugqibela (ngayo yonke ingqiqo). Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, bendikhathazwa ngumbuzo: ziya kukhawuleza kangakanani iinethiwekhi ze-neural endaweni yeengcali ezingaziyo ukuba zifakwa njani kwi-CAGR? Kwaye ndifuna ngokwenene ukwenza uqikelelo, kwaye ndiyoyika ukuphosisa. Ukujonga kwi-undershoot, njengoko uqonda.
Kodwa ngokunzulu, isantya esikhawulezayo sokutshintsha sinjengomoya. Ukuba uyayazi indlela yokuseta iiseyile ngokuchanekileyo (kwaye isikhephe seseyile siyahambelana), ke nokuba umoya ovuthuzayo awuyi kukuthintela ukuba uqhubele phambili, kwaye nokuba ngumsila womsila, kunye neCAGR enkulu !!!
Wonwabe ngeCAGR kuye wonke umntu ogqibile ukufunda!
I-DUP
I-Habraeffect isasebenza! Ngosuku olwapapashwa ngalo lo mbandela, kwavela inqaku malunga ! Umzekelo awukaguqulelwa, kodwa isiqalo senziwe. Ukongeza ungabona okanye
ImibuleloNdingathanda ukubulela ngokungazenzisiyo:
- ILabhoratri yeMizobo yeKhompyutha yeVMK kwiYunivesithi yaseMoscow State. M.V. Lomonosov ngegalelo lakhe kuphuhliso lwemizobo yekhompyuter eRashiya nangaphaya,
- ngokobuqu uKonstantin Kozhemyakov, owenza okuninzi ukwenza eli nqaku libe ngcono kwaye licace ngakumbi,
- kwaye ekugqibeleni, sibulela kakhulu kuKirill Malyshev, uEgor Sklyarov, uIvan Molodetskikh, uNikolai Oplachko, uEvgeny Lyapustin, uAlexander Ploshkin, uAndrey Moskalenko, u-Aidar Khatiullin, uDmitry Klepikov, uDmitry Konovalchuk, uMaxim Velikanov, uAlexander Yakovenko kunye nenombolo enkulu ye-Evgeny Kukuptsov amagqabantshintshi kunye nokuhlelwa okwenze esi sicatshulwa sibengcono!
umthombo: www.habr.com