Uaireanta, chun fadhb a rĂ©iteach, nĂ mĂłr duit ach breathnĂș air Ăł uillinn dhifriĂșil. FiĂș mĂĄ rĂ©itĂodh fadhbanna comhchosĂșla le 10 mbliana anuas ar an mbealach cĂ©anna le hĂ©ifeachtaĂ Ă©agsĂșla, nĂ fĂrinne Ă© gurb Ă© an modh seo an t-aon mhodh amhĂĄin.
TĂĄ a leithĂ©id de thopaic ann mar churn custaimĂ©ara. TĂĄ an rud dosheachanta, mar is fĂ©idir le custaimĂ©irĂ aon chuideachta, ar go leor cĂșiseanna, stop a chur lena gcuid tĂĄirgĂ nĂł seirbhĂsĂ a ĂșsĂĄid. Ar ndĂłigh, do chuideachta, is gnĂomh nĂĄdĂșrtha, ach nĂ hĂ© an gnĂomh is inmhianaithe, Ă© churn, agus mar sin dĂ©anann gach duine iarracht an curn seo a ĂoslaghdĂș. NĂos fearr fĂłs, an dĂłchĂșlacht go dtarlĂłdh maidhm a thuar do chatagĂłir ĂĄirithe ĂșsĂĄideoirĂ, nĂł dâĂșsĂĄideoir ar leith, agus mol roinnt cĂ©imeanna chun iad a choinneĂĄil.
Is gĂĄ anailĂs a dhĂ©anamh agus iarracht a dhĂ©anamh an cliant a choinneĂĄil, mĂĄs fĂ©idir, ar na cĂșiseanna seo a leanas ar a laghad:
- tĂĄ sĂ© nĂos costasaĂ custaimĂ©irĂ nua a mhealladh nĂĄ nĂłsanna imeachta coinneĂĄla. Chun custaimĂ©irĂ nua a mhealladh, mar riail, nĂ mĂłr duit roinnt airgid a chaitheamh (fĂłgraĂocht), agus is fĂ©idir le custaimĂ©irĂ atĂĄ ann cheana fĂ©in a chur i ngnĂomh le tairiscint speisialta le coinnĂollacha speisialta;
- Is Ă© an rud is tĂĄbhachtaĂ chun tĂĄirgĂ agus seirbhĂsĂ a fheabhsĂș nĂĄ na fĂĄthanna a fhĂĄgann custaimĂ©irĂ a thuiscint.
TĂĄ cineĂĄlacha cur chuige caighdeĂĄnacha ann chun maistĂocht a thuar. Ach ag ceann de na craobhchomĂłrtais AI, shocraigh muid triail a bhaint as dĂĄileadh Weibull le haghaidh seo. Is minic a ĂșsĂĄidtear Ă© le haghaidh anailĂse marthanachta, rĂ©amhaisnĂ©is na haimsire, anailĂs ar thubaistĂ nĂĄdĂșrtha, innealtĂłireacht thionsclaĂoch agus a leithĂ©idĂ. Is feidhm dĂĄileadh speisialta Ă© dĂĄileadh Weibull atĂĄ paraimĂ©adar ag dhĂĄ pharaimĂ©adar
Đž
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Wikipedia
Go ginearĂĄlta, is rud suimiĂșil Ă©, ach chun eis-sreafaĂ a thuar, agus i fintech i gcoitinne, nĂ ĂșsĂĄidtear Ă© chomh minic sin. Faoi bhun an ghearrtha inseoimid duit conas a rinne muid (Saotharlann MianadĂłireachta SonraĂ) Ă© seo, agus bhuaigh muid Ăłr ag an am cĂ©anna ag an gCraobhchomĂłrtas FaisnĂ©ise Saorga sa chatagĂłir âAI in Banksâ.
Maidir le churn i gcoitinne
Tuigimid beagĂĄn faoi cad is brĂ le custaimĂ©irĂ agus cĂ©n fĂĄth a bhfuil sĂ© chomh tĂĄbhachtach. TĂĄ bonn custaimĂ©irĂ tĂĄbhachtach do ghnĂł. Tagann custaimĂ©irĂ nua chuig an mbonn seo, mar shampla, tar Ă©is dĂłibh a bheith foghlamtha faoi thĂĄirge nĂł seirbhĂs Ăł fhĂłgra, beo le tamall (bain ĂșsĂĄid as na tĂĄirgĂ go gnĂomhach) agus tar Ă©is tamaill stop a ĂșsĂĄid. Tugtar âSaolrĂ© an ChustaimĂ©araâ ar an trĂ©imhse seo - tĂ©arma a chuireann sĂos ar na cĂ©imeanna a thĂ©ann custaimĂ©ir trĂd nuair a fhoghlaimĂonn sĂ© faoi thĂĄirge, nuair a dhĂ©anann sĂ© cinneadh ceannachĂĄin, nuair a Ăocann sĂ©, a ĂșsĂĄideann agus a thiocfaidh chun bheith ina thomhaltĂłir dĂlis, agus ar deireadh thiar a stopann sĂ© ag ĂșsĂĄid an tĂĄirge. ar chĂșis amhĂĄin nĂł ar chĂșis eile. DĂĄ rĂ©ir sin, is Ă© churn an chĂ©im dheireanach de shaolrĂ© an chliaint, nuair a stopann an cliant ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as na seirbhĂsĂ, agus le haghaidh gnĂł ciallaĂonn sĂ© seo go bhfuil an cliant scortha de bhrabĂșs nĂł aon sochar a bhaint amach ar chor ar bith.
Is duine sonrach Ă© gach cliant bainc a roghnaĂonn cĂĄrta bainc amhĂĄin nĂł eile go sonrach dĂĄ chuid riachtanas. MĂĄ thaistealaĂonn tĂș go minic, beidh cĂĄrta mĂle ĂĄisiĂșil agat. CeannaĂonn go leor - Dia duit, cĂĄrta cashback. CeannaĂonn sĂ© go leor i siopaĂ ar leith - agus tĂĄ plaisteach comhphĂĄirtĂochta speisialta ann cheana fĂ©in le haghaidh seo. Ar ndĂłigh, uaireanta roghnaĂtear cĂĄrta bunaithe ar an gcritĂ©ar âseirbhĂs is saoireâ. Go ginearĂĄlta, tĂĄ go leor athrĂłg anseo.
Agus roghnaĂonn duine an banc fĂ©in freisin - an bhfuil aon phointe ann cĂĄrta a roghnĂș Ăł bhanc nach bhfuil a bhrainsĂ ach i MoscĂł agus sa rĂ©igiĂșn, nuair a bhĂonn tĂș Ăł Khabarovsk? FiĂș mĂĄ tĂĄ cĂĄrta Ăł bhanc den sĂłrt sin ar a laghad 2 uair nĂos brabĂșsaĂ, tĂĄ lĂĄithreacht brainsĂ bainc in aice lĂĄimhe fĂłs ina chritĂ©ar tĂĄbhachtach. Sea, tĂĄ 2019 anseo cheana fĂ©in agus is Ă© digiteach gach rud atĂĄ againn, ach nĂ fĂ©idir roinnt saincheisteanna a rĂ©iteach le roinnt banc ach i mbrainse. Ina theannta sin, arĂs, tĂĄ muinĂn ag cuid den daonra i mbanc fisiceach i bhfad nĂos mĂł nĂĄ feidhmchlĂĄr ar fhĂłn cliste, nĂ mĂłr Ă© seo a chur san ĂĄireamh freisin.
Mar thoradh air sin, d'fhĂ©adfadh go leor cĂșiseanna a bheith ag duine le diĂșltĂș do thĂĄirgĂ bainc (nĂł an banc fĂ©in). D'athraigh mĂ© post, agus d'athraigh an taraif cĂĄrta Ăł thuarastal go "For mere mortals," rud nach bhfuil chomh brabĂșsach. Bhog mĂ© go cathair eile nach bhfuil brainsĂ bainc ann. NĂor thaitin an t-idirghnĂomhĂș leis an oibreoir neamhchĂĄilithe sa bhrainse liom. Is Ă© sin le rĂĄ, dâfhĂ©adfadh go mbeadh nĂos mĂł cĂșiseanna fĂłs le cuntas a dhĂșnadh nĂĄ mar a dâĂșsĂĄidfĂ an tĂĄirge.
Agus is fĂ©idir leis an gcliant nĂ hamhĂĄin in iĂșl go soilĂ©ir a intinn - teacht go dtĂ an banc agus rĂĄiteas a scrĂobh, ach go simplĂ stop a ĂșsĂĄid na dtĂĄirgĂ gan fhoirceannadh an chonartha. SocraĂodh foghlaim meaisĂn agus AI a ĂșsĂĄid chun fadhbanna den sĂłrt sin a thuiscint.
Ina theannta sin, is fĂ©idir le gcustaimĂ©ir tarlĂș in aon tionscal (teileachumarsĂĄid, solĂĄthraithe IdirlĂn, cuideachtaĂ ĂĄrachais, go ginearĂĄlta, cibĂ© ĂĄit a bhfuil bonn custaimĂ©irĂ agus idirbhearta trĂ©imhsiĂșla).
Cad atå déanta againn
Ar an gcĂ©ad dul sĂos, bhĂ sĂ© riachtanach cur sĂos a dhĂ©anamh ar theorainn shoilĂ©ir - Ăłn mĂ©id ama a thosaĂmid ag smaoineamh ar an gcliant a d'fhĂĄg. Ă thaobh an bhainc a chuir na sonraĂ ar fĂĄil dĂșinn dĂĄr gcuid oibre, bhĂ stĂĄdas gnĂomhaĂochta an chliaint dĂ©nĂĄrtha - tĂĄ sĂ© gnĂomhach nĂł nach bhfuil. BhĂ bratach ACTIVE_FLAG sa tĂĄbla "GnĂomhaĂocht", agus d'fhĂ©adfadh a luach a bheith mar "0" nĂł "1" ("NeamhghnĂomhach" agus "GnĂomhach") faoi seach. Agus bheadh ââââgach rud go breĂĄ, ach tĂĄ duine den sĂłrt sin gur fĂ©idir leis Ă© a ĂșsĂĄid go gnĂomhach ar feadh tamaill, agus ansin titim as an liosta gnĂomhach ar feadh mĂosa - d'Ă©irigh sĂ© tinn, chuaigh sĂ© go tĂr eile ar laethanta saoire, nĂł fiĂș chuaigh sĂ© chun tĂĄstĂĄil a dhĂ©anamh. cĂĄrta Ăł bhanc eile. NĂł bâfhĂ©idir tar Ă©is trĂ©imhse fhada neamhghnĂomhaĂochta, tosĂș ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as seirbhĂsĂ an bhainc arĂs
Mar sin, chinneamar trĂ©imhse neamhghnĂomhaĂochta a ghairm mar thrĂ©imhse leanĂșnach ĂĄirithe ama ar lena linn a socraĂodh an bhratach â0â.

AistrĂonn cliaint Ăł neamhghnĂomhach go gnĂomhach tar Ă©is trĂ©imhsĂ neamhghnĂomhaĂochta dâfhaid Ă©agsĂșla. TĂĄ an deis againn an mĂ©id luach eimpĂreach âiontaofacht trĂ©imhsĂ neamhghnĂomhaĂochtaâ a rĂomh - is Ă© sin, an dĂłchĂșlacht go dtosĂłidh duine ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as tĂĄirgĂ bainc arĂs tar Ă©is neamhghnĂomhaĂochta sealadach.
Mar shampla, taispeĂĄnann an graf seo ath-thosĂș gnĂomhaĂochta (ACTIVE_FLAG=1) cliant tar Ă©is roinnt mĂonna neamhghnĂomhaĂochta (ACTIVE_FLAG=0).

Anseo dĂ©anfaimid soilĂ©iriĂș beag ar an tacar sonraĂ a thosaigh muid ag obair leo. Mar sin, chuir an banc faisnĂ©is chomhiomlĂĄn ar fĂĄil ar feadh 19 mĂ sna tĂĄblaĂ seo a leanas:
- âGnĂomhaĂochtâ - idirbhearta custaimĂ©ara mĂosĂșla (le cĂĄrtaĂ, i mbaincĂ©ireacht IdirlĂn agus i mbaincĂ©ireacht shoghluaiste), lena n-ĂĄirĂtear pĂĄrolla agus faisnĂ©is ar lĂĄimhdeachas.
- âCĂĄrtaĂâ - sonraĂ faoi na cĂĄrtaĂ go lĂ©ir atĂĄ ag an gcliant, le sceideal mionsonraithe taraife.
- âComhaontuitheâ - faisnĂ©is faoi chomhaontuithe an chliaint (idir oscailte agus dĂșnta): iasachtaĂ, taiscĂ, etc., ag lĂ©iriĂș paraimĂ©adair gach ceann acu.
- âCustaimĂ©irĂâ - tacar sonraĂ dĂ©imeagrafacha (inscne agus aois) agus infhaighteacht faisnĂ©ise teagmhĂĄla.
BhĂ na tĂĄblaĂ go lĂ©ir ag teastĂĄil uainn le haghaidh oibre seachas an âLĂ©arscĂĄilâ.
BhĂ deacracht eile anseo - sna sonraĂ seo nĂor lĂ©irigh an banc cĂ©n cineĂĄl gnĂomhaĂochta a tharla ar na cĂĄrtaĂ. Is Ă© sin, d'fhĂ©adfaimis a thuiscint an raibh idirbhearta ann nĂł nach raibh, ach nĂorbh fhĂ©idir linn a gcineĂĄl a chinneadh a thuilleadh. Mar sin, nĂ raibh sĂ© soilĂ©ir an raibh an cliant ag tarraingt siar airgead tirim, ag fĂĄil tuarastal, nĂł ag caitheamh an airgid ar cheannachĂĄin. NĂ raibh sonraĂ againn ar iarmhĂ©ideanna cuntais, a bheadh ââĂșsĂĄideach.
BhĂ an sampla fĂ©in neamhchlaonta - sa sampla seo, thar 19 mĂ, nĂ dhearna an banc aon iarrachtaĂ chun custaimĂ©irĂ a choinneĂĄil agus eis-sreabhadh a ĂoslaghdĂș.
Mar sin, faoi thrĂ©imhsĂ neamhghnĂomhaĂochta.
Chun sainmhĂniĂș ar churn a fhoirmiĂș, nĂ mĂłr trĂ©imhse neamhghnĂomhaĂochta a roghnĂș. Chun rĂ©amhaisnĂ©is chuinneog a chruthĂș ag pointe ama
, nà mór duit stair chustaiméara de 3 mhà ar a laghad a bheith agat ag eatramh
. BhĂ ĂĄr stair teoranta do 19 mĂ, mar sin shocraigh muid trĂ©imhse neamhghnĂomhaĂochta 6 mhĂ a ghlacadh, mĂĄ bhĂ sĂ© ar fĂĄil. Agus don trĂ©imhse Ăosta le haghaidh rĂ©amhaisnĂ©is ardchĂĄilĂochta, ghlacamar 3 mhĂ. Ghlacamar na figiĂșirĂ ar feadh 3 agus 6 mhĂ go heimpĂreach bunaithe ar anailĂs ar iompar sonraĂ custaimĂ©irĂ.
Chuireamar an sainmhĂniĂș ar chuinneog le chĂ©ile mar seo a leanas: mĂ chuinneog an chustaimĂ©ara
is Ă© seo an chĂ©ad mhĂ le ACTIVE_FLAG=0, ĂĄit Ăłn mĂ seo tĂĄ ar a laghad sĂ© nialais as a chĂ©ile sa rĂ©imse ACTIVE_FLAG, i bhfocail eile, an mhĂ Ăłna raibh an cliant neamhghnĂomhach ar feadh 6 mhĂ.

LĂon na gcliant a d'fhĂĄg

LĂon na gcliant atĂĄ fĂĄgtha
Conas a rĂomhtar maistreadh?
I gcomĂłrtais den sĂłrt sin, agus go praiticiĂșil go ginearĂĄlta, is minic a thuartar eis-sreabhadh ar an mbealach seo. ĂsĂĄideann an cliant tĂĄirgĂ agus seirbhĂsĂ ag trĂ©imhsĂ Ă©agsĂșla ama, lĂ©irĂtear sonraĂ faoin idirghnĂomhĂș leis mar veicteoir de ghnĂ©ithe dâfhad seasta n. Is minic a chuimsĂonn an fhaisnĂ©is seo:
- SonraĂ arb iad is sainairĂonna don ĂșsĂĄideoir (sonraĂ dĂ©imeagrafacha, deighleog mhargaĂochta).
- Stair ĂșsĂĄid tĂĄirgĂ agus seirbhĂsĂ baincĂ©ireachta (is gnĂomhartha custaimĂ©ara iad seo a bhĂonn i gcĂłnaĂ ceangailte le ham nĂł le trĂ©imhse an eatramh a theastaĂonn uainn).
- SonraĂ seachtracha, dĂĄ mbeadh sĂ© indĂ©anta Ă© a fhĂĄil - mar shampla, athbhreithnithe Ăł lĂonraĂ sĂłisialta.
Agus ina dhiaidh sin, faigheann siad sainmhĂniĂș ar churn, difriĂșil do gach tasc. Ansin ĂșsĂĄideann siad algartam foghlama meaisĂn, a thuar an dĂłchĂșlacht go bhfĂĄgfaidh cliant
bunaithe ar veicteoir fachtĂłirĂ
. Chun an algartam a oiliĂșint, ĂșsĂĄidtear ceann de na creataĂ aitheanta chun ensembles de chrainn chinnidh a thĂłgĂĄil, , , nĂł modhnuithe air.
NĂl an algartam fĂ©in olc, ach tĂĄ roinnt mĂbhuntĂĄistĂ tromchĂșiseacha ag baint leis nuair a thagann sĂ© chun curn a thuar.
- NĂl âcuimhneâ mar a thugtar air. Is Ă© ionchur an mhĂșnla nĂĄ lĂon sonraithe gnĂ©ithe a fhreagraĂonn don phointe ama reatha. D'fhonn faisnĂ©is a stĂłrĂĄil faoi stair na n-athruithe ar pharaimĂ©adair, is gĂĄ gnĂ©ithe speisialta a bhaineann le hathruithe ar pharaimĂ©adair le himeacht ama a rĂomh, mar shampla, lĂon nĂł mĂ©id na n-idirbheart bainc le 1,2,3, XNUMX, XNUMX mhĂ anuas. NĂ fĂ©idir leis an gcur chuige seo ach nĂĄdĂșr na n-athruithe sealadacha a lĂ©iriĂș go pĂĄirteach.
- RĂ©imse rĂ©amhaisnĂ©ise seasta. NĂl an tsamhail in ann cur isteach custaimĂ©ara a thuar ach ar feadh trĂ©imhse ama rĂ©amhshainithe, mar shampla, rĂ©amhaisnĂ©is mĂ amhĂĄin roimh rĂ©. MĂĄ tĂĄ gĂĄ le rĂ©amhaisnĂ©is ar feadh trĂ©imhse ama difriĂșil, mar shampla, trĂ mhĂ, ansin nĂ mĂłr duit an tacar oiliĂșna a atĂłgĂĄil agus mĂșnla nua a athoiliĂșint.
Ăr gcur chuige
Shocraigh muid ar an bpointe boise nach n-ĂșsĂĄidfimid cur chuige caighdeĂĄnach. Chomh maith linne, chlĂĄraigh 497 duine sa bhreis sa chraobh, gach duine acu a raibh taithĂ nach beag taobh thiar dĂobh. Mar sin nĂ smaoineamh maith Ă© rud Ă©igin a dhĂ©anamh de rĂ©ir scĂ©ime caighdeĂĄnach i gcoinnĂollacha den sĂłrt sin.
Agus thosaigh muid ag rĂ©iteach na fadhbanna atĂĄ os comhair an tsamhail aicmithe dĂ©nĂĄrtha trĂ dhĂĄileadh dĂłchĂșlachta na n-amanna maistreĂĄin do chustaimĂ©irĂ a thuar. Is fĂ©idir cur chuige comhchosĂșil a fheiceĂĄil , ceadaĂonn sĂ© duit curn a thuar ar bhealach nĂos solĂșbtha agus triail a bhaint as hipitĂ©isĂ nĂos casta nĂĄ mar atĂĄ sa chur chuige clasaiceach. Mar theaghlach dĂĄileachĂĄin a mhĂșnlaĂonn an t-am eis-sreabhadh, roghnaigh muid an dĂĄileadh as a ĂșsĂĄid fhorleathan in anailĂs marthanais. Is fĂ©idir breathnĂș ar iompar an chliaint mar chineĂĄl marthanais.
Seo samplaĂ de dhĂĄileachĂĄin dlĂșis dĂłchĂșlachta Weibull ag brath ar pharaimĂ©adair
Đž
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Is Ă© seo an fheidhm dlĂșs dĂłchĂșlachta trĂ chustaimĂ©irĂ Ă©agsĂșla cuachta le himeacht ama. Cuirtear am i lĂĄthair i mĂonna. Is Ă© sin le rĂĄ, taispeĂĄnann an graf seo cathain is dĂłichĂ go ndĂ©anfaidh cliant maistreadh sa dĂĄ mhĂ atĂĄ romhainn.Mar a fheiceann tĂș, tĂĄ nĂos mĂł acmhainneacht ag cliant le dĂĄileadh imeacht nĂos luaithe nĂĄ mar a bhĂonn cliaint leis an Weibull(2, 0.5) agus Weibull (3,1) dĂĄiltĂ.
Is Ă© an toradh mĂșnla atĂĄ, do gach cliant, do gach
mĂ a thuar paraimĂ©adair an dĂĄileadh Weibull, a lĂ©irĂonn is fearr ar tharla an dĂłchĂșlacht eis-sreabhadh le himeacht ama. NĂos mine:
- Is iad na gnĂ©ithe sprice ar an oiliĂșint atĂĄ leagtha sĂos nĂĄ an t-am atĂĄ fĂĄgtha go dtĂ an chur i mĂ ar leith do chliant ar leith.
- Mura bhfuil aon rĂĄta maistreĂĄin ann do chustaimĂ©ir, glacaimid leis go bhfuil an t-am cuaidh nĂos mĂł nĂĄ lĂon na mĂonna Ăłn mĂ reatha go dtĂ deireadh na staire atĂĄ againn.
- MĂșnla a ĂșsĂĄidtear: lĂonra nĂ©arach athfhillteach le ciseal LSTM.
- Mar fheidhm chaillteanais, ĂșsĂĄidimid an fheidhm log-chosĂșlachta diĂșltach do dhĂĄileadh Weibull.
Seo iad na buntĂĄistĂ a bhaineann leis an modh seo:
- CeadaĂonn dĂĄileadh dĂłchĂșlachta, chomh maith leis an bhfĂ©idearthacht shoilĂ©ir a bhaineann le haicmiĂș dĂ©nĂĄrtha, rĂ©amh-mheastachĂĄn solĂșbtha a dhĂ©anamh ar imeachtaĂ Ă©agsĂșla, mar shampla, an stopfaidh cliant ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as seirbhĂsĂ an bhainc laistigh de 3 mhĂ. Chomh maith leis sin, mĂĄs gĂĄ, is fĂ©idir mĂ©adrachtaĂ Ă©agsĂșla a mheĂĄnĂș thar an dĂĄileadh seo.
- TĂĄ cuimhne ag lĂonra nĂ©arach athfhillteach LSTM agus ĂșsĂĄideann sĂ© an stair iomlĂĄn atĂĄ ar fĂĄil go hĂ©ifeachtach. De rĂ©ir mar a dhĂ©antar an scĂ©al a leathnĂș nĂł a scagadh, mĂ©adaĂtear cruinneas.
- Is fĂ©idir an cur chuige a scĂĄla go hĂ©asca agus trĂ©imhsĂ ama ĂĄ roinnt ina dtrĂ©imhsĂ nĂos lĂș (mar shampla, agus mĂonna ĂĄ roinnt ina seachtainĂ).
Ach nĂ leor mĂșnla maith a chruthĂș; nĂ mĂłr duit a chĂĄilĂocht a mheas i gceart freisin.
Conas a rinneadh measĂșnĂș ar chĂĄilĂocht?
Roghnaigh muid Lift Curve mar an mĂ©adrach. ĂsĂĄidtear Ă© i ngnĂł le haghaidh cĂĄsanna den sĂłrt sin mar gheall ar a lĂ©irmhĂniĂș soilĂ©ir, tĂĄ cur sĂos maith air Đž . MĂĄ dhĂ©anann tĂș cur sĂos ar bhrĂ an mhĂ©adrach seo in aon abairt amhĂĄin, is Ă© âCĂ© mhĂ©ad uair a dhĂ©anann an algartam an tuar is fearr sa chĂ©ad
% nĂĄ go randamach."
Samhlacha traenĂĄlaĂ
NĂor bhunaigh coinnĂollacha an chomĂłrtais mĂ©adracht shonrach cĂĄilĂochta trĂnar fĂ©idir samhlacha agus cineĂĄlacha cur chuige Ă©agsĂșla a chur i gcomparĂĄid. Ina theannta sin, is fĂ©idir leis an sainmhĂniĂș ar churn a bheith difriĂșil agus d'fhĂ©adfadh sĂ© ag brath ar an rĂĄiteas faidhbe, atĂĄ, ar a seal, arna chinneadh ag spriocanna gnĂł. DĂĄ bhrĂ sin, chun a thuiscint cĂ©n modh is fearr, rinneamar oiliĂșint ar dhĂĄ mhĂșnla:
- Cur chuige aicmithe dĂ©nĂĄrtha a ĂșsĂĄidtear go coitianta ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as algartam foghlama meaisĂn crann cinnteoireachta ensemble ();
- MĂșnla Weibull-LSTM
Chuimsigh an tacar tĂĄstĂĄla 500 cliant rĂ©amhroghnaithe nach raibh sa tacar oiliĂșna. RoghnaĂodh hipearpharaimĂ©adair don tsamhail ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as tras-bhailĂochtĂș, arna miondealĂș de rĂ©ir cliant. Baineadh ĂșsĂĄid as na tacair chĂ©anna gnĂ©ithe chun gach samhail a oiliĂșint.
Mar gheall ar an bhfĂric nach bhfuil cuimhne ag an mĂșnla, tĂłgadh gnĂ©ithe speisialta dĂł, ag taispeĂĄint an cĂłimheas idir na hathruithe ar pharaimĂ©adair ar feadh mĂosa leis an meĂĄnluach do pharaimĂ©adair le trĂ mhĂ anuas. Cad arb iad is sainairĂonna an rĂĄta athraithe ar luachanna thar an trĂ©imhse dheireanach de thrĂ mhĂ. Gan Ă© seo, bheadh ââan tsamhail Random Forest-bhunaithe faoi mhĂbhuntĂĄiste i gcomparĂĄid le Weibull-LSTM.
CĂ©n fĂĄth go bhfuil LSTM le dĂĄileadh Weibull nĂos fearr nĂĄ cur chuige crann cinntĂ ensemble
TĂĄ gach rud soilĂ©ir anseo i gcĂșpla pictiĂșr.

ComparĂĄid idir Lift Curve don algartam clasaiceach agus Weibull-LSTM

ComparĂĄid idir an Curve Ardaithe de rĂ©ir mĂosa don algartam clasaiceach agus Weibull-LSTM
Go ginearĂĄlta, tĂĄ LSTM nĂos fearr nĂĄ an algartam clasaiceach i mbeagnach gach cĂĄs.
tuar Chur
Is fĂ©idir le samhail atĂĄ bunaithe ar lĂonra nĂ©arach athfhillteach le cealla LSTM le dĂĄileadh Weibull curn a thuar roimh rĂ©, mar shampla, cur isteach custaimĂ©ara a thuar laistigh de na mĂonna n seo chugainn. Smaoinigh ar an gcĂĄs le haghaidh n = 3. Sa chĂĄs seo, le haghaidh gach mĂ, nĂ mĂłr don lĂonra neural a chinneadh i gceart an bhfĂĄgfaidh an cliant, ag tosĂș Ăłn gcĂ©ad mhĂ eile agus go dtĂ an nĂș mĂ. I bhfocail eile, caithfidh sĂ© a chinneadh i gceart an bhfanfaidh an custaimĂ©ir tar Ă©is n mĂ. Is fĂ©idir Ă© seo a mheas mar rĂ©amhaisnĂ©is roimh rĂ©: an nĂłimĂ©ad a thuar nuair a bhĂ an cliant dĂreach ag tosĂș ag smaoineamh ar fhĂĄgĂĄil.
Déanaimis comparåid idir Lift Curve do Weibull-LSTM 1, 2 agus 3 mhà roimh an eis-sreabhadh:

ScrĂobhamar thuas cheana go bhfuil na rĂ©amhaisnĂ©isĂ a rinneadh do chliaint nach bhfuil gnĂomhach a thuilleadh le tamall tĂĄbhachtach freisin. Mar sin, cuirfimid leis an sampla cĂĄsanna den sĂłrt sin nuair a bhĂonn an custaimĂ©ir a d'imigh neamhghnĂomhach cheana fĂ©in ar feadh mĂosa nĂł dhĂł, agus seiceĂĄil go ndĂ©anann Weibull-LSTM cĂĄsanna den sĂłrt sin a rangĂș i gceart mar churn. Ăs rud Ă© go raibh cĂĄsanna den sĂłrt sin i lĂĄthair sa sampla, tĂĄimid ag sĂșil go lĂĄimhseĂĄlfaidh an lĂonra go maith iad:

CoimeĂĄd custaimĂ©irĂ
I ndĂĄirĂre, is Ă© seo an rud is mĂł is fĂ©idir a dhĂ©anamh, a bhfuil ar lĂĄimh faisnĂ©is go bhfuil cliaint den sĂłrt sin agus den sĂłrt sin ag ullmhĂș chun stop a ĂșsĂĄid an tĂĄirge. Ag labhairt di ar mhĂșnla a thĂłgĂĄil a dâfhĂ©adfadh rud Ă©igin ĂșsĂĄideach a thairiscint do chustaimĂ©irĂ chun iad a choinneĂĄil, nĂ fĂ©idir Ă© seo a dhĂ©anamh mura bhfuil stair iarrachtaĂ comhchosĂșla agat a dtiocfadh deireadh maith leo.
Nà raibh a leithéid de scéal againn, mar sin shocraigh muid é ar an mbealach seo.
- TĂĄimid ag tĂłgĂĄil mĂșnla a shainaithnĂonn tĂĄirgĂ suimiĂșla do gach cliant.
- Gach mĂ reĂĄchtĂĄlaimid an t-aicmitheoir agus sainaithnĂmid custaimĂ©irĂ a dâfhĂ©adfadh a bheith ag fĂĄgĂĄil.
- Cuirimid an tĂĄirge ar fĂĄil do roinnt cliant, de rĂ©ir an mhĂșnla Ăł phointe 1, agus cuimhnigh ar ĂĄr ngnĂomhartha.
- Tar Ă©is cĂșpla mĂ, fĂ©achaimid ar cĂ© acu de na cliaint seo a dâfhĂ©adfadh a bheith fĂĄgtha agus cĂ© acu a dâfhan. Mar sin, dĂ©anaimid sampla oiliĂșna.
- TraenĂĄilimid an tsamhail ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as an stair a fuarthas i gcĂ©im 4.
- Roghnach, dĂ©anaimid an nĂłs imeachta arĂs, ag cur an tsamhail a fhaightear i gcĂ©im 1 in ionad an mhĂșnla Ăł chĂ©im 5.
Is fĂ©idir tĂĄstĂĄil ar chĂĄilĂocht coinneĂĄla den sĂłrt sin a dhĂ©anamh trĂ thĂĄstĂĄil rialta A/B - roinnimid custaimĂ©irĂ a dâfhĂ©adfadh imeacht ina dhĂĄ ghrĂșpa. Cuirimid tĂĄirgĂ ar fĂĄil do cheann amhĂĄin atĂĄ bunaithe ar ĂĄr mĂșnla coinneĂĄla, agus leis an gceann eile nĂ thairgimid aon rud. Shocraigh muid oiliĂșint a chur ar mhĂșnla a dâfhĂ©adfadh a bheith ĂșsĂĄideach cheana fĂ©in ag pointe 1 dĂĄr sampla.
Theastaigh uainn an deighilt a dhĂ©anamh chomh inmhĂnithe agus is fĂ©idir. Chun seo a dhĂ©anamh, roghnaigh muid roinnt gnĂ©ithe a d'fhĂ©adfaĂ a lĂ©irmhĂniĂș go hĂ©asca: lĂon iomlĂĄn na n-idirbheart, pĂĄ, lĂĄimhdeachas cuntais iomlĂĄn, aois, inscne. NĂor cuireadh gnĂ©ithe Ăłn tĂĄbla âMapaĂâ san ĂĄireamh mar ghnĂ©ithe neamhfhaisnĂ©iseach, agus nĂor cuireadh gnĂ©ithe Ăł thĂĄbla 3 âConarthaĂâ san ĂĄireamh mar gheall ar chastacht na prĂłiseĂĄla chun sceitheadh ââsonraĂ a sheachaint idir an tacar bailĂochtaithe agus an tacar oiliĂșna.
Rinneadh braisliĂș ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as samhlacha meascĂĄn Gaussach. Cheadaigh critĂ©ar faisnĂ©ise Akaike dĂșinn 2 optamach a chinneadh. FreagraĂonn an chĂ©ad bharrmhaith le 1 bhraisle. FreagraĂonn an dara ceann is fearr, nach bhfuil chomh soilĂ©ir, do 80 braisle. Bunaithe ar an toradh seo, is fĂ©idir linn an chonclĂșid seo a leanas a bhaint amach: tĂĄ sĂ© thar a bheith deacair sonraĂ a roinnt ina gcnuasaigh gan faisnĂ©is a priori a thabhairt. Chun braisliĂș nĂos fearr a fhĂĄil, teastaĂonn sonraĂ uait a chuireann sĂos go mion ar gach cliant.
Mar sin, breithnĂodh fadhb na foghlama maoirsithe chun tĂĄirge difriĂșil a thairiscint do gach cliant aonair. BreathnaĂodh ar na tĂĄirgĂ seo a leanas: âĂarlais tĂ©armaâ, âCĂĄrta creidmheasaâ, âRĂłtharraingtâ, âIasacht do thomhaltĂłirĂâ, âIasacht cairrâ, âMorgĂĄisteâ.
ĂirĂodh leis na sonraĂ cineĂĄl tĂĄirge amhĂĄin eile: âCuntas reathaâ. Ach nĂor mheasamar Ă© mar gheall ar a ĂĄbhar Ăseal faisnĂ©ise. Maidir le hĂșsĂĄideoirĂ ar cliaint bainc iad, i.e. nĂor stop sĂ© ag baint ĂșsĂĄide as a chuid tĂĄirgĂ, tĂłgadh mĂșnla chun a thuar cĂ©n tĂĄirge a mbeadh spĂ©is acu ann. RoghnaĂodh aischĂ©imniĂș lĂłistĂochta mar mhĂșnla, agus baineadh ĂșsĂĄid as an luach Ardaithe don chĂ©ad 10 peircintĂl mar mhĂ©adracht measĂșnaithe cĂĄilĂochta.
Is fĂ©idir cĂĄilĂocht an mhĂșnla a mheas san fhigiĂșr.

TorthaĂ mĂșnla moladh tĂĄirge do chustaimĂ©irĂ
IomlĂĄn na
Thug an cur chuige seo an chĂ©ad ĂĄit dĂșinn sa chatagĂłir âAI in Banksâ ag CraobhchomĂłrtais AI RAIF-DĂșshlĂĄn 2017.

RĂ©ir dealraimh, ba Ă© an rud is mĂł nĂĄ an fhadhb a rĂ©iteach Ăł uillinn neamhchoitianta agus ĂșsĂĄid a bhaint as modh a ĂșsĂĄidtear de ghnĂĄth le haghaidh cĂĄsanna eile.
CĂ© go bhfĂ©adfadh eis-sreabhadh ollmhĂłr ĂșsĂĄideoirĂ a bheith ina thubaiste nĂĄdĂșrtha do sheirbhĂsĂ.
Is fĂ©idir an modh seo a chur san ĂĄireamh le haghaidh aon rĂ©imse eile ina bhfuil sĂ© tĂĄbhachtach eis-sreabhadh a chur san ĂĄireamh, nĂ hamhĂĄin na bainc. Mar shampla, d'ĂșsĂĄid muid Ă© chun ĂĄr n-eis-sreabhadh fĂ©in a rĂomh - i gcraobhacha Siberian agus St Petersburg de Rostelecom.
"Saotharlann MianadĂłireacht SonraĂ" cuideachta "Tairseach cuardaigh "Sputnik"
Foinse: will.com
