“Imikhumbi-mkhathi izulazula emkhathini womkhathi” - ngu tkdrobert
Abantu bavame ukungibuza: “Ubhala mayelana neziqalo, kodwa sekwephuze kakhulu ukuziphinda, kodwa yini okufanele yethulwe manje, iphi i-Facebook entsha?” Ukube bengiyazi impendulo eqondile, bengingeke ngitshele muntu, kodwa ngizenzele ngokwami, kodwa isiqondiso sosesho sisobala, singakhuluma ngakho ngokukhululekile.
Konke sekuvele kwasungulwa ngaphambi kwethu
Zonke iziqalo eziphumelele kakhulu zisekelwe emibonweni elula kakhulu. I-Google ikhule ngokucabangela izixhumanisi ezilinganisweni zayo. I-Booking.com ibonisa wonke amahhotela emhlabeni endaweni eyodwa. I-Tinder ikuvumela ukuthi uphakamise usuku ngokuswayipha okukodwa nje. I-Uber iyi-oda letekisi kuhlelo lokusebenza lweselula. Manje lezi zinkampani zisebenzisa amashumi ezinkulungwane zabasebenzi, nsuku zonke zenza umkhiqizo zibe nzima futhi zengeze izinsizakalo ezintsha, kodwa-ke, ekuqaleni, yonke into yayilula kakhulu.
Imibono ekhaliphile engenzeka imbalwa. Kunezimakethe ezinkulu ngempela ezingaphansi kwe-100 emhlabeni. I-TRIZ inamasu ayisisekelo angu-40; awadluliseli kahle ezinsizeni ezibonakalayo, kodwa cishe sinenani elifanayo lawo. Futhi ake sibeke phansi, sithi, izindlela ezi-5 zokusebenzisa inqubo ngayinye embonini ethile.
Ake sizame indlela “yokunqunyelwa okwenziwayo” ezinkundleni zokuxhumana: inombolo yabangane - Indlela - ukwehluleka, usayizi wokuqukethwe - Twitter - impumelelo, impilo yokuqukethwe - Snapchat - impumelelo, ukubhaliswa - Facebook - impumelelo, inani lokuqukethwe - angazi isibonelo. Yini enye enganqunyelwa? Uma kungekho okunye, kwavela ukuthi 5 nje.
100 x 40 x 5 = imibono emikhulu eyizinkulungwane ezingama-20 ingaba khona ngokomthetho. Futhi lokhu kuhlanganisa ngisho nezinhlanganisela ezingenangqondo kakhulu. Kunamaphrojekthi amaningi kakhulu emhlabeni minyaka yonke, ngakho-ke wonke amathuba anesikhathi sokuhamba ngaphezu kokukodwa.
Yonke imibono emihle isivele yazanywa, yasuka (futhi sekwephuze kakhulu ukuyiphinda), noma ayizange isuke (futhi ngeke isuke lapha, asingcono kunenqwaba noma amakhulu abanduleli) - ngeke kusaba khona ukuqalisa, siyahamba.
Empeleni, akunjalo
Iqhinga liwukuthi umhlaba uyashintsha. Okungenangqondo ukuzama eminyakeni engu-20 edlule bekungahluleka eminyakeni engu-10 edlule futhi kunethuba lokuphumelela kakhulu manje. Iziqhwaga ezizayo zizama izinto ebezingadingekile ngaphambili noma ezingenzeki, futhi zikwazi ukuba ngowokuqala ukwethula uma kunengqondo. Ushintsho oluyinhloko lwezobuchwepheshe lweminyaka engu-30 edlule - ukuxhumana okushibhile - kwenze ukuxhumana okuvamile phakathi kwamadolobha namazwekazi kwenzeka ngokomnotho. Umphumela uba Facebook, Amazon, Booking.com. Eminyakeni engu-10, "wonke umuntu" wayene-smartphone ephaketheni lakhe-Uber, Instagram, kanye neobanks bakhula kulokhu.
KuNokia 3310 noma i-Samsung S55, uhlelo lokusebenza lweklayenti letekisi lwalungenanjongo nhlobo. Mhlawumbe othile wazama lolu hlobo lwebhizinisi noma kunjalo, kodwa akazange abe nalo ithuba. Ngomhla zingama-29 kuJuni 2007, i-iPhone yokuqala yafika futhi umhlaba washintsha. I-Uber yasungulwa ngoMashi 2009 - futhi akuyona eyokuqala yohlobo lwayo, kodwa eyokuqala, iwindi lethuba lalivuliwe, akekho owayeselithathile, babenesikhathi - futhi noma ngabe bathini abagxeki abanonya, inkampani manje ibiza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-51.
Indaba efanayo ingaphinda nabanye abalingiswa. Ngaphambi kokusetshenziswa kabanzi kweWebhu, kwakungenakwenzeka ukuhweba nge-Intanethi. Lapho isidumile, kwavela i-niche yezitolo eziku-inthanethi. U-Bezos wayengeyena owokuqala kuwo, kodwa wayengomunye wabokuqala futhi, ngokusobala, ophumelele kakhulu - kwase kuvela i-Amazon.
Umhlaba ulokhu ushintsha
Ukuxhumana sekuphelele manje. I-5G iyisu, hhayi isu, ushintsho alunamandla, amabhizinisi amasha azungeze ubuchwepheshe azovela, kodwa i-Google entsha ngeke. I-smartphone isivele ikuwo wonke amaphakethe akhokhayo. La magagasi aquleka, kodwa umlando wesintu awuzange uphele.
Yini ekhona manje noma ezovela esikhathini esizayo esiseduze eyayingekho eminyakeni eyishumi edlule? Cishe ziningi izinto ezinjalo; iplanethi yethu ihluke kakhulu. Abanye bazokhumbula ngokushesha amarekhodi amasha okufudumala kwembulunga yonke kanye nokukhula kwabantu (sawubona, Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods), abanye mayelana ne-CRISPR (indlela engifisa ngayo ukuthi ama-unicorns azoqala ukubonakala lapha futhi), kodwa emkhakheni we-IT umholi ubonakala esobala.
Ngawo-2019, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa baba ngokoqobo. Manje, ngo-20, ikhompuyutha ixazulula imisebenzi evamile kangcono futhi eshibhile kunabantu - ibona ngisho nobuso, idlala ngisho nemidlalo ethi Go, ibikezela ngisho nemizwa yamakhasimende. Futhi umsebenzi wabantu abaningi uyinjwayelo; bambalwa kakhulu abantu abenza ubuhlakani bangempela ehhovisi noma efekthri, bayanda ngokuya ngemiyalelo eqinile. Lokhu kusho ukuthi cishe wonke umuntu manje angathathelwa indawo ubuhlakani bokwenziwa, futhi eminyakeni engu-XNUMX “kungenzeka” kuzoshintsha kube “kwenziwe.” Futhi inkampani ethile ethile, umkhiqizo noma isiqalo "sizokwenza" lokhu.
Futhi kuzoba nemali eningi
Bheka . 4.5 million abashayeli, 3.5 million cashers, sibala i-avareji yeholo kuma-dollar ayizinkulungwane ezingu-30 ngonyaka - lezi sezimakethe ezibiza izigidigidi ezingu-100 ngayinye e-USA kuphela. Uma kuqhathaniswa, imali engenayo yomhlaba wonke ye-Facebook ka-2018 yayingama- $ 56 billion.
Akumina ngedwa owazi u-Google umsebenzi odume kakhulu - inkampane enkulu evilaphayo kuphela engabambi iqhaza emjahweni wezimoto ezizishayelayo. Izitolo ezingenabo abathengisi nazo ziyisihloko esidumile; I-Amazon Go iyisibonelo esisodwa sokuthi ama-giants ayibheka kanjani. Kodwa ake sijule kancane. E-USA, abantu abayizigidi ezingu-1 bahlala etafuleni lokwamukela izivakashi. Izinkulungwane ezingama-400 zisebenza njengabaphathi ezindaweni zokudlela, futhi izigidi ezimbili nengxenye zisebenza njengabalindi (abasebenzi bokudla okusheshayo abafakiwe lapha, bawumugqa ohlukile). Futhi ngaphezulu, ngaphezulu, ngaphezulu... IMisa hhayi ubungcweti abaningi kangaka balinde ukwenziwa kwamarobhothi futhi ezimweni eziningi akekho ojahile ukubasiza.
Umkhawulo wesikhalazo esikhulu "esithakazelisayo" kulula ukusibala. Ukuze wakhe i-unicorn, udinga inzuzo yezigidi ezingu-50 zamaRandi. Ake sicabange ukuthi imali engenayo izoba izigidi eziyi-100. Ukuze ukhokhe izigidi eziyikhulu, amakhasimende okuqala azokonga ingxenye yebhiliyoni ngokudiliza abasebenzi - lokho cishe abantu abayizinkulungwane ezingama-100 abaneholo elincane laseMelika. Lokhu kusho ukuthi kumele kube nezinkulungwane ezingama-20 sezizonke emakethe - hhayi yonke imboni ezokwakhiwa kabusha ngesikhathi esifanele.
Kukhona inqwaba, uma kungenjalo amakhulu, amakhono anjalo nobuchwepheshe. Yiqiniso, esimweni ngasinye kunezizathu nezincazelo zokuthi kungani ukuhlakanipha okwenziwayo akukakwenzeka lapha, kodwa kusasa umthetho kaMoore uzokhansela lesi sizathu. Noma mhlawumbe kwenzeke izolo. Owokuqala ozozama ngokuhamba kwesikhathi uzokwakha inkampani entsha enhle, futhi kuzoba nenqwaba yabo, njengobungcweti. Ayikho into eyisicefe njengokubhala umthengisi wamarobhothi, kodwa ku-IT manje akukho okunokwenzeka ngokwezomnotho - ngaphandle kokuthi mhlawumbe umlindi wamarobhothi.
Kule minyaka engu-15 edlule, sesikujwayele ukuvela kwezimakethe ezinkulu ezintsha, umphumela wokukhulumisana okuhle uye wasakazekela ezimbonini ezihlukahlukene. Ngokushesha ama-automation amasha amakhulu kanye namarobhothi azoqala ukuvela njalo ezindabeni, futhi isikhathi sokwethulwa kwe-AI siyasondela. Kumele acekele phansi wonke umsebenzi oyisicefe. Futhi nakuba iningi lizogcina umlando, idlanzana lizowudala.
Source: www.habr.com