On According to According to the international consulting company GlobalData, approximately 100 MW of solar power plants were commissioned in Russia last year, bringing the total installed solar panel capacity to approximately 3,1 GW. Analysts predict that approximately 200 MW of solar capacity will be commissioned annually over the next ten years, bringing the total capacity to 5,3 GW by 2035.
It's easy to calculate that Russia had 3 GW of solar capacity in 2024, and by the end of 2026, there will be 3,3 GW of solar power plants, 4 GW in 2029, over 5 GW in 2034, and 5,3 GW by the end of 2035. This activity is more than modest—on par with the uncertainty in capacity estimates in China, India, and the United States—the world leaders in solar energy.
For comparisonsChina is projected to have commissioned 315 GW of solar power plants by 2025, or 3150 times more than Russia during the same period. While this figure is an order of magnitude lower in the US and India, it still outpaces the rate of solar energy development in Russia by hundreds of times. Despite these modest figures, there are plenty of places in Russia where solar energy has the potential to thrive and develop. These are primarily in the southern and eastern regions of the country, analysts report.
On the property of private households and businesses, solar systems with a capacity of up to 15 kW are permitted to be installed and surplus electricity can be sold through a system of offsets at prices ranging from 1,70 rubles ($0,021) per kWh to 2 rubles per kWh. Compensation is also provided for certain projects for up to 15 years. Solar panels are most often used in hybrid solar-diesel systems in remote regions of the country, where stand-alone solar systems are most efficient.
"In remote regions where solar energy systems with storage replace diesel power plants, the levelized cost of electricity from recently commissioned stand-alone solar energy projects with storage is approximately $0,19 to $0,29 per kWh (15 to 23 rubles), which is significantly more cost-effective than the cost of pure diesel generation," the experts explain. "Hybrid energy systems in regions like Yakutia are demonstrating significant cost savings." Thus, the operation of twelve systems commissioned between 2021 and 2024 has saved over 3596 tons of diesel fuel.
Another key factor in the development of the Russian solar energy market is the government's commitment to localized production and technological sovereignty. Renewable energy auctions require projects to contain 50-70% locally produced components, and this requirement is likely to become more stringent over time.
Analysts consider Hevel Group, headquartered in Moscow, to be the leader in domestic solar panel production. It operates one of Russia's largest solar panel manufacturers, having completed over 100 projects with a total capacity of over 1,6 GW.
"The company specializes in heterojunction junction (HJT) technology and has significantly improved the efficiency of its cells since launching HJT production in 2017. By 2023, the average efficiency of commercial HJT cells reached 25%—a benchmark that Hevel's ongoing R&D program aims to match and exceed," the analysts state. "Other manufacturers are also developing thin-film CIGS modules, flexible solar panels, and integrated photovoltaic systems for urban environments."
According to additional analysis by GlobalData, Russia's total renewable energy capacity will increase from 9,8 GW in 2025 to 18,4 GW in 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6,5% over the study period.
Offshore wind farms are expected to strengthen their position as the main source of renewable energy in Russia, increasing their capacity from 4,3 GW last year to 10,2 GW in 2035. Solar energy will be the second largest source of generation.
Thermal generation, particularly natural gas, dominates Russia's energy consumption structure. GlobalData forecasts that gas-fired power plant capacity will increase from 143,5 GW in 2025 to 151,2 GW by 2035. Coal-fired power plant capacity is projected to gradually decline over the forecast period, while fuel oil-fired power plant capacity is expected to remain virtually unchanged.
Earlier this month, a 102,3 MW solar power plant was commissioned in Dagestan, southern Russia. The project, implemented by the Russian company New Energy Management Company, is the largest solar energy project in the region. According to a Telegram post by the Dagestan Ministry of Energy, the plant has already begun supplying electricity to the Russian power grid. The planned output represents approximately 3% of the total electricity generated by all power plants in Dagestan.
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Source: 3dnews.ru
